Counting Un-Hatched Chickens

by geeves on Aug 27, 2009 3:45 AM EDT Comment 16 comments

As you all well know, I very regularly follow our minor league affiliates and keep an eye on the daily performance of all the relevant prospects. I fully intend to write one last round up in short order once the season comes to a close (the MiLB season), but in doing some preliminary poking around, something bothersome has come to light.

We all knew - or thought we knew - what we were getting in Jeff Clement. Solid bat, originally a catcher, knees to bad to stay there, so he needed to learn first base to have a shot. August 14th Clement hit a three-run home run in the first inning and finished 3-for-6 with a fourth RBI. That game put his line with Indy at .339/.403/.740 through 14 games, a very solid start to go with the respectable AAA numbers he put up last year and this year in Tacoma.

Last night, Clement went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, and is now 2-for-35 over the last ten games, sucking his line as an Indian down to .231/.324/.484. and he's struck out in just over one-third of his at-bats. Is this Clement's bat crashing down to Earth? Is it a simple slump, and it shouldn't be a concern since it's ugly, but it's only ten games? Perhaps he's just bored with AAA ball?

UPDATE: There's your poll, discuss if you choose 'other'

Poll

The last ten games worth of "ick" hitting for Clement are:

The proof that he's a AAAA player after all, my cynicism was justified!

8 votes

The yang to the yin that was his first 14 games, it'll all even out in the end.

45 votes

Too small a sample size to truly draw conclusions from and outweighed by his AAA performance up to that point

76 votes

Other

3 votes

132 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 16 comments

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Comments

You didn't post a poll

But I’m voting for “slump.”

by bucdaddy on Aug 27, 2009 9:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You didn't post a poll

But I’m voting for “slump.” I think it’s just the law of averages evening itself out with Clement’s torrid start at AAA. He remains a very intriguing AAA bat that deserves a shot with the Pirates, but if it’s in management’s best interest to hold him back in order to retain his rights for more years, it’s what has to be done. I don’t think he’s “bored” with AAA

Benny Benack III

by benny benack on Aug 27, 2009 10:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He has a long history of hitting well at the AAA level so its hard to believe that this is anything except for a slump.

by MrPedriqueIfYoureNasty on Aug 27, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Clement

Just a FYI here, but my wife and I were in Arizona in 07 and I talked her into going to spring training for a day. Nice thing about AZ is that you can see 2 teams within a 5 minute walk of each other.

Ran into Clement, who at the time was a highly rated catching prospect. I noticed that when he signed the T at the end of his name, he made it like a cross. I asked him if he was a Christian and we talked about it for a little while.

Enough said, but the discussion showed me that he is good kid who has his head on straight. I have been a fan since that encounter.

I wish him well…

by God Loves on Aug 27, 2009 1:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 27, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's Streaky

Always has been.

by Slizeezyc on Aug 27, 2009 1:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He’s not as good as his first 14 games…and not as bad as his last 10 games. Frankly…I haven’t seen anything to indicate he’s real special. Right now…anything more than a platoon with Pearce at 1B…is probably expecting a bit much of him. Anything you MIGHT gain on the offensive side with Clement…you’ll probably get back in defense with Pearce.

by Thunder on Aug 27, 2009 1:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think a Clement/Pearce 1B platoon could be pretty productive and wouldn’t mind seeng them give it a shot next year. Pearce could back up the corner outfield spots and Clement could at least be an emergency catcher (I hope) so it shouldn’t kill us to carry two first basemen on the roster.

by maguro on Aug 27, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Platoons

(except for the best players) tend to make a team better. The Phillies would be better off finding a decent/average hitter for first base that can hit lefties better than Ryan Howard can (because Howard struggles usually against lefties). I doubt this will ever happen, but it would be smart (in my opinion).

Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock

by Green_Wave on Aug 27, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like platoons.

They ensure that you’ve always got a few quality players on the bench in the late game, and they help keep your bullpen down to a reasonable size. How often do you really need that 7th reliever, anyway?

by Vlad on Aug 27, 2009 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like platoons too

But we’ll see how you feel about that 7th reliever after the first long extra innings game of the season, when we run out of relievers first.

www.sixtyftsixin.com

by Nate Rose on Aug 28, 2009 1:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually

if you look at their career minor league numbers, pearce and clement’s stats work for a platoon (their lesser halves of said splits dont suck, but you’d create a two-headed 1B with a career .921/.880 OPS – L/R)

so it isnt a terrible idea, i dont think.

by geeves on Aug 27, 2009 5:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Make sure to keep in mind...

…that a RHB’s platoon split always regresses toward a 1.09 ratio, given enough time. As such, a righty’s L/R splits aren’t terribly valuable, from a predictive standpoint. You do better to just use his raw totals and extrapolate.

by Vlad on Aug 27, 2009 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs