The evolution of the Pittsburgh Pirates farm system.

Preseason top 100 prospects - 2008

Pirates prospects - 3

• Andrew McCutchen - 13
• Neil Walker - 61
• Steve Pearce - 89

The Pirates trade Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, and Damaso Marte (in two separate trades) and add top prospects

• Jose Tabata - 31
• Andy LaRoche - 37

Andy LaRoche "graduates" from prospect status

Pedro Alvarez signs with the Pirates

Preseason top 100 prospects - 2009

Pirates prospects -

• Pedro Alvarez - 12
• Andrew McCutchen - 33 (only God knows why he dropped 20 spots)
• Jose Tabata - 75

The Pirates trade Nate McLouth, Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson, Nyjer Morgan, Sean Burnett, John Grabow, Ian Snell, and Tom Gorzelanny and add top prospects

• Gorkys Hernandez - 62
• Tim Alderson - 45

Andrew McCutchen graduates from prospect status

---------------------------------------------------------------------- The Future------------------------------------------------------------------------

After looking into the past, I'm going to (hopefully) peer into the future.

Presenting your Pittsburgh Pirates prospects in the 2010 Baseball America top 100 prospect list. (Maybe)

I'm going categorize prospects who will, should, and could make it into the list and describe what I think they will have to do on the field in the next several weeks to make the top 10, 25, 50, and 100.

Locks

• Pedro Alvarez - A 2nd overall draft pick gives him an impressive draft pedigree and although he struggled with plate discipline (70 K's in 243 AB's, 28.8%) and average starting out at single A Lynchburgh, he still managed to hit several bombs (14 in 243 AB's) and earned a promotion to AA Altoona.  At Altoona he has hit .298 while putting up similar power numbers (7 HR's in 121 AB's), although he has still failed to cut down on his K's (35 K's in 121 AB's 28.9%).  Still, he did manage to cut down on his K's throughout the month of July at a clip of 25.2% (23/91)

1. Top 100 - Avoid having a career ending injury and hit at the mendoza line, or even in the general neighboorhood.. or maybe just get a hit or two. Whichever
   
2. Top 50 - Hit .250 with a few scattered bombs and avoid striking out 1 out of 3 AB's
3. Top 25 - Hit .270 with a handful of bombs and manage to drop his K rate to 25%
4. Top 10 - Hit. 290 or more with a dozen more HR's and walk half as many times as he strikeouts (< 25%)

• Jose Tabata - A former top 50 prospect while still a teenager means he has been on the scene for a while.  An injury, behaviorial problems, and trade took him off the map in 2008.  He did no favors for himself in the first few months of 2009 at AA Altoona sustaining another injury and playing at a mediorce level.  He soon picked it up and a hot streak raised his average to over .300 earning him a recent promotion to AAA Indy. 
  

1. Top 100 - Avoid getting convicted for murder and hit better than I could at Indy
2. Top 50 - Hit . 270 at Indy with a half a dozen XBH's and not completely abandon his plate discipline
3. Top 25 - Continue to hit .300 and flash some power (few HR's and dozen + gap doubles/triples)
4. Top 10 - Hit upwards of .325 and tear the cover off the ball to the tune of double digits HR's

Quasi-Locks

• Tim Alderson - Acquired in a trade for Freddy Sanchez and sent to AA Altoona, Alderson was second fiddle to Madison Bumgardner in the Giants system, but is arguably the best arm in the Pirates system now.  He's a command pitcher rather than a flamethrower with a plus plus curveball.  His stats have been solid so far this year, even though he has a lower K/9 ratio and has alledgedly lost some of his stuff.

1. Top 100 - Throw a fastball faster than 90 MPH and strikeout a batter every other inning
2. Top 50 - Maintain his ERA, WHIP, and K/9's at AA Altoona and hit the 89-90 MPH range consistently
3. Top 25 - Keep his ERA below 3.00 and WHIP around 1.00 at Altoona while continuing to walk virtually no one.  Show a slight spike in his K/9 along with show a improving changeup and consistently hit above 90 with his fastball
4. Top 10 - Suddenly starting striking out a better an inning and throwing 93 or 94

• Gorkys Hernandez - Acquired in a trade for Nate McLouth, Hernandez came over hitting over .300 and flashing 3.5 tools (average, speed, glove, and 1/2 arm).  Since coming over though he has slumped, barely hitting .250, although he did hit his first 2 HR's of the year.  He is still very young (21) and can certainly still develop into a good (or better) major league player. 
  

1. Top 100 - Show some imporvement in his batting average at Altoona and still flash his speed and glove
2. Top 50 - Go on a tear and hit .350 the rest of the year to finish with an average over .300 and hit a few homeruns and start showing an ability to be effective stealing bases
3. Top 25 - Go on an inhuman tear and hit .450 with half a dozen HR's and steal double digit bases without getting caught.
4. Top 10 - Get a base hit two out of three AB's while smashing line drive doubles and moonshots.  Any time Gorkys only gets to first he needs to steal a base.

Strong Possibilities

• Brad Lincoln - Lincoln was drafted the Pirates in the first round in 2006 but missed the entire 2007 season requiring TJ surgery.  Lincoln had a decent 2008 season, but took off at Altoona in 2009, posting a 2.28 ERA and striking out 65 batters in 75 innings while only walking 18. 
  

1. Top 100 - Pitch well at Indy, holding a similar K/9 ratio, walk very few batters and keep a ERA that hovers around 2.50.
2. Top 50 - Pitch very well, striking out more than a better per inning and posting a ERA in double digits
3. Top 25 - Mix in complete game shutouts, no hitters, and double digit strikeout games
4. Top 10 - Throw perfect games from here on out

• Tony Sanchez - the #4 overall draft pick in 2009 by the Pittsburgh Pirates, Sanchez was a quick sign who projected as a defensive catcher.  He has showed that defensive prowess along with hitting for average and decent power. 
  

1. Top 100 - continue at slightly below his pace
2. Top 50 - increase his pace by a decent amount and throw out a solid precentage of runners
3. Top 25 - hit .500 and don't get stolen on again
4. Top 10 - get a hit every AB for the remainder of the year and don't get stolen on again

Medium Possibilities

• Neil Walker - His stock as been falling as he has been struggling at the plate this year.   Still he is fairly young (23) and has shown decent pop (10 HR's to go alone with 19 doubles in 251 AB's) 

1. Top 100 - Finish the rest of the year on a clip above .300 and hit a few more bombs while continue to improve his already solid plate discipline
2. Top 50 - Put up Albert Pujols like numbers to finish the season (smaller sample)
3. Top 25 - Put up Barry Bonds like numbers to finish the season (smaller sample) and bat .500
   
4. Top 10 - Hit like he's still in little leages (.700 and a HR a game)

• Rudy Owens - Young pitcher who has put up video game numbers at low A WV.  Recently promoted to high A Lynchburg where he hopes to continue the meteoric rise of his stock. 
  

1. Top 100 - Put up numbers in high A similar to those he put up in Low A and look comfortable on the mound
2. Top 50 - Put up numbers that somehow beat his Low A numbers while at Lynchburg with an spike in strikeouts
3. Top 25 - Add 10 mph to his fastball
4. Top 10 - Channel Cy Young, learn to throw the gyroball, and start looking so good in random BP sessions that hes given DH duties.  As a DH, have his OPS exceed 1.000

Sleepers

• Robbie Grossman
• Quinton Miller
• Miguel Angel Sano

In conclusion I'd expect to see Alvarez in the top 10 next year, Tabata in the top 25, and Hernandez, Owens, Lincoln and Sanchez to all crack the top 100.  Sano wouldn't surprise me either.  I also think ultimately, Walker will have worn out his welcome on the list.

Feel free to comment and add your own opinions