Ronny Cedeno: Better Than We Think?
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 3, 2009 10:20 PM EDT
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PrintJust a quick observation about today's game: if the defense he has played so far is any indication, Ronny Cedeno's worthlessness may have been greatly exaggerated. His range is excellent, and his hands appear to be pretty good too. A couple of the plays he made tonight were amazing. (He also looks great, as all the Pirates' infielders do, compared to the Nats, whose infield defense everywhere except third looked stunningly bad.)
I think his offense may have some smidgen of promise as well. Yes, his numbers in his major league career have been dreadful, and it's entirely possible they may continue to be. He also didn't hit as a youngster in the low minors. For some reason, though, in AAA he hit very well indeed, posting lines of .355/.403/.518 in 2005 and .359/.422/.537 in 2007. Those lines were batting-average driven, and until he hits well for an extended period in the majors, my best guess will be that they were flukes. But if he can somehow bring his major-league average up to .270 or so, I'm not sure he'll be that much worse than Jack Wilson anyway, and Cedeno is five years younger. Please note the number of qualifiers in there, but it's not totally clear to me that Cedeno is just some random guy to stand at short for a few months until something better comes along, sort of like Jose Hernandez after the Aramis Ramirez deal in 2003. Cedeno might--might--be a bit better than that.
Also, Andrew McCutchen homered again tonight. As I write this in the seventh, I feel pretty good about this game, even if I don't completely understand why Jeff Karstens was allowed to blow the game wide open. This one might have turned out differently if the Bucs had taken advantage of some of the scoring opportunities they had early on.
One link:
Minor League Baseball: Lynchburg vs. Kinston
Rudy Owens struck out four batters, walked one, and allowed no runs in his first 4.3 innings at Class A+ Lynchburg tonight. Also, the newly-acquired Josh Harrison is 3-for-5 with a double as I type this.
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Cedeno was a former top prospect
I still have hope he can turn it around and make himself into a decent player.
by thecheeseisblue on Aug 3, 2009 10:22 PM EDT reply actions
Huh
So if a bunch of things go right, and he outperforms his established track record, he might be almost as good as Jack Wilson? Got it.
Well, if a reverse aging machine is invented in the next year or so that takes Jack back to age 25, then yes, I agree we probably should have just kept Jack.
In a totally unrelated note, here is a picture of my favorite candy:
Let’s try to avoid name-calling.
I want one of those, though. Haven’t had one since I was about 13.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 4, 2009 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Dude,
rather than say you are on the wrong blong and all the easy things I wanna say. Tell me what you think empirically about Jack Wilson. I’m willing to say he was an excellent defense shortstop and also willing to say he was a very below average hitter, which combined, at best made him a league average guy.
There is a good argument to be made about Jack. I just would like to see you make it, knowing he is a free agent at the end of the year.
I don’t think "doesn’t agree with Charlie’s opinion of Ronny Cedeno" = "on the wrong blog." I think both you and the Cap’n are being a bit hard on the guy, even if his sarcasm was unprovoked.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 4, 2009 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions
A Mariners fan colleague of mine on Cedeno: “He’s literally the worst player in the American League”.
Jack struck out a lot less throughout his majors and minors career. I’d give him longer odds of sticking than Pearce, though unlike Pearce,Cedeno might get a chance to play everyday because of the total lack of competent MLB or AAA shortstops in Pittsburgh.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 4, 2009 12:16 AM EDT reply actions
I thought that was impossible...
I thought Yuniesky Betancourt was the worst player in the American League.
Betancourt is better offensively right now, but we’ll see. Maybe Cedeno still has room to grow.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 4, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
He has such a low BABIP compared to the last three years, which I think are more of his true talent level. Neither Betancourt or Cedeno are really as bad as their 2009 numbers alone.
I might have rather done this same deal with Betancourt in it instead of Cedeno like it was rumored earlier in the year.
The downside, though, is that Yuniesky is a year older and not making close to the league minimum.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 4, 2009 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions
The other downside
is that Betancourt is so lazy he makes Ronny Paulino look like an overachiever. Cedeno, for all his flaws, is more likely to improve his game going forward than Yuni.
http://ussmariner.com/2009/06/10/the-end-of-yuniesky-betancourt/
Cedeno
Not only do I think he might be better than we think, but I think Ronny might have had as much to do with the Jack trade actually going down as Clement did. Huntington spent a decent amount of time talking about him, and the fact that he’s immediately stepped in as the unquestioned everyday shortstop is significant.
Ramon Vazquez had decent numbers with the Rangers last year and he’s making a decent amount of money this year and next. It’s surprising to me that despite his poor numbers he didn’t at least get a chance to lose a job to Cedeno after Jack was traded.
There’s something about Cedeno the Pirates genuinely like, and it’s pretty obvious, and while I don’t want to be some kool-aid drinker, I think I’m beginning to see it too.
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
For a more optimistic perspective, here’s Baseball Prospectus a year and a half ago, before the 08 season:
Still, as Cedeno’s good doings in Triple-A Iowa last year attest, he’s fundamentally a better player than [Ryan] Theriot, the major differences being the doubles power that Cedeno has and Theriot lacks, and also Cedeno’s better footwork at shortstop. Cedeno’s is a tried and true skill set-the same one that’s earning Orlando Cabrera millions of dollars every season-and the Cubs will give it another long look come spring training.
That’s a ton of optimism after his ‘07 AAA performance that Cedeno didn’t quite live up to. Still, he was passable in a utility role for the Cubs in 08 before tanking this year with Seattle. Maybe there is more to this guy than we think.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 4, 2009 12:48 AM EDT reply actions
Maybe it’s the several beers I had after the Nats game, but hope springs eternal with me. Hell, I’m ready to totally buy into Bob Walk talking about Delwyn working with Perry Hill before every game and his probable upcoming stint at winter ball. 2B is solved! =)
Seriously though, he’s looked good so far. I’m not counting on it lasting, but like Garrett Jones, I’m enjoying it for the time being.
i'll take the chance on it
unlike batting, where you can look better than you are, a poor fielding prowess is harder to hide. (I personally had the experience when playing the outfield) Cedeno has been great for the most part, and he looks like he has better range than Vazquez.
I can see him being a good fit in the field with plus-plus range and much better than a passable shortstop. I would, however, not read too much into how much length NH went into (as someone commented above). I think NH is riding a wave of optimism with BD followers, where he can get the benefit of doubt on pretty much anything. I will, however, be really surprised if it turns out that NH/his scouts thought Cedeno had more potential with the stick than other scouts did- I just dont buy that, just as I wouldn’t buy a theory that Cedeno was in any way integral to the deal being completed. I am, however, willing to acknowledge that if he can turn in average driven numbers like his better AAA figures or even numbers like Jack had, I will be more than happy with the deal, and reserve judgment for a while while the A-ball pitchers show us what they can do.
I don't disagree.....
and hope for the best……but you really want to argue this after saying Garrett Jones’ minor league at bats have told the story and Ronny Cedeno’s 1200 major league plate appearances and OPS+ of 58 is irrelevant at age 26? I mean we both hope they both workout, but this is insanity if you are going to argue against any of the other guys, glove or no glove. If you want to argue from what you seen and think, that is fine. Then stop using stats to prove other points.
The Garrett Jones argument is slightly less ludicrous with Cedeno...
…given Cedeno’s greater pedigree and record of minor-league accomplishment (top 100 prospect going into 2006), the two-year age gap, and the greater scarcity of shortstops compared to first basemen (both within our organization in particular and MLB as a whole). Still not anything even approaching a high-percentage bet, of course.
by the way
garrett seems to be cooling off. i have my helmet on, so i won’t get hurt when the bricks come a flyin’.
by SamTheButcher on Aug 4, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
“Glove or no glove”? Have you seen the defensive routes Jones is taking in right field? It’s atrocious. That’s why I don’t think he’ll have much of a career with the Pirates. If he was even a passable defender, it would be different. He may be decent at first base, but the Bucs have a lot of better ones like Clement, Alvarez, and maybe Pearce.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 4, 2009 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions
My point isn't that Jones....
is a good defensive at any position. Right or wrong, the argument against MVP is that he has 1,500 minor league at bats that suggest he is no good. He has 116 plate appearances in the major leagues with a 1.059 OPS. So, Charlie saying that 1,200 plate appearances for Ronny Cedeno with an of OPS+58 and he thinks maybe he’s hitting his stride is completely ridiculous. Yes, Cedeno is two years younger, but his defensive metrics aren’t that good. So looking at some play he made in three games, but discounting anything Jones did in 25 is ridiculous. And Cedeno has 1,200 at bats at OPS+ of 58. He loses all credibility by eyeballing three game but not counting a month of Jones’ stats. Right or wrong there is no consistency in the argument.
But the argument against Jones must include his defense. That’s the main reason he never broke out of the Twins system. Jones predicts to hit around .750 to .800 OPS in the majors. That’s fine for David DeJesus, but not Garrett Jones. If Jones is in the Dunn/Dye/Bay class of defenders, he better have their bat. And the evidence says that he does not.
Cedeno’s defensive metrics look very average for a shortstop. But at least he passes the look test at the position. It’s a very small sample size, but Cedeno has shown a lot of room for improvement IMO.
I’m a bit more skeptical of Cedeno’s offense; his 2007 AAA BABIP was .403. Like Charlie said, his production was batting average driven. I would not read too much into the sexy looking line until he puts something together in the Show.
But the point is, a defensive-oriented shortstop is more valuable in the majors than a slightly below-average hitting, well below average defending corner outfielder.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 4, 2009 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Really....
his 1,200 defensive games at SS don’t show what you hope. What you are saying is a guy who looks the part in four games defensively you are willing to give more of a pass to than a guy who in 120 ML at bats has had an OPS over 1.000.
That’s a fine conclusion as long as you recognize it, which you don’t. The defensive metrics don’t show anything that you contend, but your eyes do—he “has shown a lot of room for improvement.” What do you base this on, watching a week of baseball?
An OPS+ of 58 in 1,200 at bats is beyond pathetic. How do you want to defend this?
You have to account for the age thing.
Cedeno’s failures in the majors count just as much as Jones’s failures in AAA at the same age, but at 26 Cedeno has more ceiling left on his projection. The two years make a huge difference.
Which is not to say that he’s particularly likely to break out, but it wouldn’t be unthinkable if he did, and given our lack of other palatable options at the position (something that also doesn’t apply to Jones), there’s no real harm in giving him the rest of the year to see whether it’ll happen.
Yea.....
I’ve seen all of them and he isn’t that good. We agree. But I’m don’t want to see somebody who uses Jones 1500 minor league at bats as a reason he sucks, and the turn around and igonore Cedeno’s 1200 ML at bats with an OPS+ of 58 to express optimism after four games. You can’t have it both ways.
Splitting hairs:
I would say that it’s OK to be more optimistic about Cedeno than Jones, as long as you implicitly recognize that both are extremely long shots. Both unlikely, one slightly more unlikely than the other.
That’s all I was saying. Sorry, dtoddwin, but the idea that I was saying Cedeno’s major league PAs were “irrelevant” is ludicrous. And you have to look at the whole picture. There was really nothing in Garrett Jones’ profile to suggest he could be a productive major leaguer until he came to the bigs and actually did it for 120 PAs or so (not looking up the number right now). Cedeno actually had 600 or so great PAs at AAA, and he’s two years younger than Jones and has a valuable glove.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 4, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know why
you continue to discount GJ’s 300 PAs in AAA this year or his 550 last year but at the same time cherry pick Cedeno’s minor league stats. I just think you are being inconsistent.
GJ's 300 PA this year are less impressive, in context...
…because he’s a poor defensive 1B miscast as a RF, rather than an average defensive SS. As such, the bar is set much higher for him, in relation to others at his position.
If Cedeno can get up to a ~.700 OPS, then he’s an average-ish regular. If Jones puts up a ~.700 OPS, he loses his job and gets non-tendered, since hitting is the only thing he brings to the table.
Well, no matter what I write, someone thinks that, so I can’t really worry about it.
I don’t discount Jones’ AAA PAs this year. He’s just older and he has to hit a lot better than Cedeno to be useful. An .850 AAA OPS for a 28-year-old with no glove just is not impressive. A .900 AAA OPS for a 22/24 year old with a great glove is.
Of course there are lots of other things in Cedeno’s record that suggest he’s not that good, but his AAA performance was excellent. Jones’ never has been.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 4, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
As I have asked Vlad.....
how many at bats at the ML level does anyone have to have for you to believe that it isn’t just a statistical outlier or hot streak? Serious question.
Just for reference: IIRC, my answer...
…was along the lines of 200-300, depending on exactly how dramatic the performance in question was.
Yes, as a matter of fact.....
you gave exact numbers based on 200, 300 and 400 PAs if I recall correctly.
Depends on player’s age, performance record, and reputation. Also, what reasons can be identified for the streak? How good is the streak? I don’t see how you could possibly expect a straightforward answer to that question. That you do maybe begins to explain why you’re comparing Jones and Cedeno, two players who couldn’t be more different in many ways.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 4, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, thanks for playing....
You missed the point. Let me ask it about Jones then, since Cedeno does have 1200 ML PAs and Jones has 200. You are willing to be optimistic about one because of his age and minor league track record and seemingly not willing to be optimistic about the other for the same reasons. Which is fine and I understand all your arguments and don’t necessarily disagree.
So in Jones’ case, with an improved K/BB rate. A .380 OBP and 1.059 OPS in 120 PAs, how long does he have to sustain some level of performance for you to change your mind.
Change my mind to what? It’s not like the flip of a switch. Every little improvement in his numbers makes me a little more likely to think he’s somewhat better than his minor league numbers indicate. I definitely think more highly of him than I did when he was with the Twins. I just still don’t think that, in the long term, he’s going to be a productive major leaguer.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 4, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Rats
Charlie’s post had me feeling somewhat better about Cedeno, but you guys have set me straight.
That said, if his defense proves solid/plus (and with Perry Hill on board, I think that’s realistic), at least we only have an offensive hole, not offensive and defensive, which has been the specter haunting me for the last year,
Open Question:
Who would you rather see succeed/pull off the longshot? Cedeno or MVP?
Let’s define terms: Cedeno “succeeding” equals batting ~.260 with a bit of 2B pop and a glove as good as one of Jack’s OK years.
For Jones, “succeeding” equals an OPS above .850 and learning to at least field the balls he can reach.
I’d lean towards Cedeno, since that kind of performance fills the SS hole acceptably for a long time, even if it never equals trade value or a real positive contribution towards success. Whereas Jones would have to turn into a Dunn clone to stick in the face of our coming OFs (I think this is about Vlad’s position).
What do you guys think?
That's a large part of it.
But I also think that there’s a greater chance of Moss or Young or Pearce succeeding as corner players than of Bixler succeeding as a ML SS. Again, none are high-percentage bets, but a fistful of lottery tickets is better than a handful of crap.
Speaking of Pearce for a moment, anybody else notice that after last night he’s up to a .774 OPS (108 OPS+) for the year? Tiny sample, of course, but that’s still mildly encouraging (i.e. better than him falling flat on his face).
He had a nice single that he stretched into a double in the 8th inning with no outs i think? only to be left stranded by the buccos after him.
and at least they are now playing him. However, I still think you should just swap Jones/Moss in the outfield rather than have Jones play 1B and take away at bats from Pearce.
Vlad, I went back and looked at.....
some of our conversations and what would start to make you a “believer” in terms of number of PAs and track record for MVP. You provided some numbers in one of those conversations.
Thus far, we have 121 PAs, a reduced strikeout rate of 14.9% an increased walk rate of 9.9%. An OBP of .380 and an OPS of 1.059. You mentioned an OPS of 1.000 in 200 plate appearances would be a something that would begin to change your mind.
Where do you stand at the moment?
And you......
of all people, just cited Pearce’s yearly numbers which are based on 53 plate appearances. MVP’s career OPS is now .869 in 205 plate appearances.
and he qualified it
with “tiny sample I know”
and “mildly encouraging”
doesn’t sound much like praise to me.
My point is only.....
that the people who have been most vociferous in down-playing MVP’s start are making exactly the same argument that they have criticized. I’m rooting for Cedeno, Pearce and Jones all to succeed. Nothing would make me happier. I do think Cedeno has some upside.
I just find it funny that Charlie would write that article after about 15 ABs and four games with the Pirates when the guy has 1,200 major league at bats and a career OPS+ of 58.
Vlad even mentioning Pearce’s numbers after 53 PAs is also somewhat amusing.
I'm most emphatically NOT making the same argument.
I didn’t call Pearce MVP, or speculate as to whether he’d hit 20 or 25 HR this year, or pencil him into the 2011 lineup as our cleanup hitter, as numerous people on the site have done with Jones. I just said that he’s hit a little better lately, and that I was glad to see it. The end.
You really need to stop looking at things through Jones-colored glasses. He’s just not that important.
Easy Vlad.....
First of all I’m trying to have a sense of humor about all of this. The MVP nickname is a joke making fun of myself as much as anything. Two, I haven’t said any of the things about Jones that you attribute to “people.” Three, whether you think he is important is really relevant. Charlie argued that JR is enamored of Jones and he is going to get another 200 or so at bats this year. So, his record will speak for itself and that will decide whether he “is important” and part of next year’s team or not. Not how you deem him.
If you don't think "people" on here have said those things, and many more...
…I’ll be glad to provide you with examples. They’re exactly the kind of nonsense that got my back up about Jones in the first place, and exactly the kind of stupid, slipshod thinking I bent over backwards to avoid when I complemented Pearce on his game. As such, I’m insulted to see you draw a comparison between the two, whether doing so was intended as an insult or not.
I agree that Jones’s record for the remainder of the year will render speculation moot. We’ll wait and see what he has to offer.
Reread what I read.....
I said I haven’t said the things that you attribute to “people,” not that people didn’t say them.
You also said...
…“the people who have been most vociferous in down-playing MVP’s start are making exactly the same argument that they have criticized”.
The Garrett Jones 4 Eva stuff is “the argument that I have criticized”, which is why I cited it as an example of the sort of thing that I wasn’t doing, to rebut your charge to the contrary. I haven’t said that Pearce is a star in the making, or compared him to Carlos Pena and Ryan Ludwick and other ludicrously inappropriate analogies, or any of that stuff. I noted that he’s on a mini hot streak, and congratulated him for it. The end.
You managed....
to make a 100 posts in a 320 post thread citing all the reasons people shouldn’t be excited about Jones. So I’m gonna keep posting that you shouldn’t be enthusiastic that Pearce isn’t falling on his face. He just not that important.
And where, exactly, was I "enthusiastic" about Pearce?
Was it the bit where I said that his “tiny sample” was “mildly encouraging”, or the bit where I described it as “better than him falling flat on his face”?
God save us all from such immoderate passions.
You're right....
you pointed it out because you were pissed off. Enthusiastic was a terrible choice of words by me.
You were starting to lose me dtoddwin
But you got me with this one. Nicely played snark. I was about to swear at you like I did Vlad, but I’m trying to keep it cool.
I'm thinking I don't have to die just yet.
The odds of him getting to 20 HR this year are looking increasingly slim, now that he’s gone more than a week without hitting another.
It’s nice that he’s coming down fairly gradually, but nothing I’ve seen in the last two weeks indicates that I was incorrect to be skeptical of him.
Not arguing....
for or against your point, we can just watch it play out—still getting on base and having good at bats. And I don’t want you to die just yet. I hope the barrage at least comes late in the season (emoticon). But, two things, you must like his improved K/BB walk rate and it is somewhat amusing that Charlie wrote this piece, no? I like Cedeno a lot and think the locals had an irrational love for Jack, but Cedeno has a major league track record that might suggest his upside is limited.
I think Charlie wrote this...
…more as a reactive piece than an analytical one (as demonstrated by the huge number of qualifiers – “my best guess will be that [his good AAA seasons] will be flukes”, “might be a bit better [than Jose Hernandez]”, etc.). I was at the game yesterday, sitting right behind home plate (a guy from my work was throwing out the first pitch), and Cedeno’s defense was the story of the game’s first half. He looked like the second coming of Ozzie Smith out there. The crowd actually gave him a standing O after one play.
Anybody can have one good game, of course, but it’s only human to wonder. The trick is not letting your personal impression get in the way of your analysis, and in my view, Charlie didn’t.
I wrote most of it while the game was still going on, in fact.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 4, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Since I'm already being pilloried for being in the tank for Pearce...
…I may as well also observe that he did a good job of laying off the outside slider with two strikes on a couple of different occasions yesterday. He gave a whole-body flinch, like he wanted to swing all the way down to the depth of his soul, but didn’t go around.
Progress? Who knows? I was sure happy to see it yesterday, though.
so, as a pirates fan, I hope they both succeed.
The discussion might have some people believing there are people in someone’s corner as opposed to someone else’s, but I’m sure everyone here would be more than happy to be proved wrong by Jones, Cedeno and Pearce (and Bixler, though I think everyone’s given up on that!).
The above goes with no need to define terms.
Now, Jones has been shaky at 1B and the OF, and that is not a good combo! Also, I m curious to see where his numbers end up.
Cedeno, so far, has been solid without being great with the bat, and if he simply keeps up what he’s done so far, we wont miss Jack at all. That, by itself, would be a huge contribution. If he can be a 10HR guy, and we ve seen the pop in his bat, with a .270-280 BA, he could be in this lineup for a while (to my mind, this is the point Charlie was making in the original post).
Jones needs to keep up his present production- I m not yet worried by the fact that he hasnt hit a HR in a week. If we look at his line since coming up, I m happy with that- I’ll even go ahead and say he has more HRs than necessary to convince me to keep him out there. But he needs to keep this production up. I am always willing to make some allowance for his D in the OF, but his showing at 1B definitely has Pearce ahead of him at 1st. Let’s see how this plays out
While we're on Pearce and Jones...
…it’s also interesting to look back at these preseason prop bets.
I called Pearce over Jones correctly, missed the Cutch offense over-under by 4 points of OPS (azibuck should set lines in Vegas for a living), and punted on Gorz for reasons that look pretty sound (especially with it ending up as a push). Too early to call the D’Cutch one, since he’s seen neither hide nor hair of the bigs yet.
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