Next Year's Lineup....

by dtoddwin on Aug 30, 2009 4:00 PM EDT Comment 33 comments

Obviously everything is subject to trades or injury. I think as of September first we now know a few things for certain. Cutch will be leading off and playing center field. Garrett Jones will be batting third and be playing first and/or right. Milledge will be playing left. Ronny Cedeno will be at short and Delwyn Young will be at second. I can't see any reason, based on each of these players' performance and what is available on our current roster, why these things aren't virtual certainties.

I have slowly come to the view that we should call up Neil Walker this month and let him play twently games. Andy LaRoche has had 480 PAs and he's OPSing .700. Okay we've seen it. Whether he plays 15 games or 35 games the rest of the way isn't going to change what we think of him. One of two things happens if Walker comes up and plays twenty games: 1.) He gets exposed and goes back to AAA knowing that there is a lot more work and improvement needed for him to succeed at the major league level. 2.) He performs well and probably still starts next year in AAA, but with a sense that if he performs like he has over the past six weeks, there is a very real chance that come June 1 next year he gets called up with the possibility of playing regularly based on LaRoche's (and Alvarez's) performance. No question, under that scenario, his bat would be a welcome addition, even on the bench.

Right field/first base have been discussed at length. The bloom isn't necessarily off the rose with Jeff Clement, but for better or worse everyone's initial enthusiasm has been tempered. After being incredibly hot for his first 40 at bats with Indy, he has been equally cold over his last 80. Jose Tabata isn't starting next year in Pittsburgh. Similarly, after a great start in AAA, he has cooled a bit and is slashing .290/.343/.420 in 100 at bats. He's 20. Those numbers are just fine, but he may spend all of next year in Indy and I don't see anything wrong with that. So that means, in my view, it's either Moss in right (again) and Jones at first. Or a platoon of Pearce/Clement at first and Jones in right. I think the later is probably better, but don't have a strong view.

Catcher. Boy has Doumit mucked this up. Clearly he has the most talent and highest upside. Sanchez is 2-3 years away. But, the fact of it is the team got better performances from the JJ/Diaz combo than they have from Ryan this year and now there appear to be attitude issues. A week ago he was saying how great it was to have Chuck Tanner in his corner and how much it meant to him. A week later he is getting benched for insubordination or lack of hustle or maybe both. A HUGE disappointment and far and away the biggest downer of the season (other than possibly Capps' terrible season.) He isn't getting traded in the off-season because he will command very little in return. I don't think this is a Ian Snell situation, but let's hope things get better this month and in spring training.

The staff is largely set. Maholm, Duke, Ohlendorf and Morton are in the starting rotation next year. Hart, McCutchen and Ascanio will vie for the fifth spot and Lincoln will start in AAA and probably be up in some form by June. The pen will consist of Capps, Hanrahan and Chavez, with one of them closing. Two of the three fifth starters above will be there, although it's possible if pitcher Cutch doesn't make the rotation he goes back to AAA so he can continue to start. Let's say that is the case, then there are three spots available. I'm guessing Veal goes to Indy as a starter to get innings and refine his mechanics and command. Karstens and Meek are on the roster. That leaves a spot or two for Jackson and others to battle for.

So, the gist of the whole post is the guys you are watching play today are, more or less, going to be the guys you watch play for the first three months of next season. The farm system is much better, but it's young with most of the talent in the various class A and AA teams. Alvarez has a very good chance of being up by June 1, as does Lincoln and Walker has at least put himself back in the conversation, but otherwise what you are seeing is what you are most likely getting for the first 80 games next year.

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Good summary, I agree with you for the most part.

The Neil Walker situation has been discussed ad nauseam here recently. Personally I don’t think he will be called up this year but I think that he should be given a shot to compete with LaRoche in Spring Training.

My opening day lineup:
C-Doumit/Jaramillo
1B-Clement/Pearce
2B-Young
3B-LaRoche
SS-Cedeno
RF-Milledge
CF-McCutchen
LF-Jones

Pretty uncontroversial but I think that’s the way it will end up.

I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.

by Chester J Lampwick on Aug 30, 2009 6:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Switch Jones and Milledge

And that will more than likely be the defensive setup I would think. (barring a breakout performance from someone and/or injuries)

Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock

by Green_Wave on Aug 30, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oops, don’t know why I moved Milledge to right.

I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.

by Chester J Lampwick on Aug 30, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't know that i would predict

Tabata being at AAA all season. Especially if he shows up for ST with none of the distractions of this season.

by Thunder on Aug 30, 2009 7:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Don’t know why you’d want to replace LaRoche with Walker for the rest of this year…let lem both finish up where they are. Walker’s current MLE is 223/266/383, so he’s a poor bet to OPS over .700 next year in MLB.

Yeah, I know LaRoche has been disappointing, but Walker will probably be even worse. If Walker improves again next year and LaRoche is still struggling at the 2010 all-star break, make the change then.

by maguro on Aug 30, 2009 9:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I don’t really want to see Walker up here right now. He’s had a great month, let him savor it. I’d like to see him extend it not in the bigs, but that doesn’t seem to be in the cards (in AZ or Europe or elsewhere). I’m happy to have him in ST next year, do well (let’s hope), and go back to AAA with specific goals/guidance (can someone teach him to take more walks?). If Andy hits next year the way he has this year, I don’t see any reason to run him out there for 80 straight starts. Bring up Walker (assuming he’s doing well in AAA – he could, of course, regress, and that would be more or less that) while Pedro refines his fielding in Indy.

by JRoth95 on Aug 30, 2009 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And LaRoche’s .630 OPS since the all star break somewhat surpasses the term…disappointing.

by Thunder on Aug 30, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what you are seeing is what you are most likely getting for the first 80 games next year.

And this is why I was so grim in that thread last week. The homestand was a nice little burst, but this remains a bad baseball team. The saving grace is that all of the starters are very plausible above-average* pitchers, which means that the team could stay in most games regardless of the awful, awful offense. Also, Doumit seems likely to have a (much) better season next year, which would help enormously.

Still, this is a lineup that could very well consist of Cutch and 7 bums – there’s not a single other guy that you can say with utter confidence will be an above-average bat at his position, and most of them will be subpar gloves as well.

define how you want

by JRoth95 on Aug 30, 2009 10:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My opening day lineup:

CF – McCutchen
2B – Young
1B – Jones
3B – Alvarez
C – Doumit
RF- Tabata
LF – Milledge
SS – Cedeno
P – pitcher

That’s what it should be, and I think that’s what it will be. I may have some of the spots in the order wrong, but those are the players who should take the field for us on Opening Day 2010. Maybe some other players have an impressive spring training and push for a starting job, but I like the lineup I posted.

by mspirate on Aug 30, 2009 11:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tabata and Alvarez both have zero chance of playing in the majors until June-July of next year.

by Suffering Buc on Aug 30, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with Suffering Buc, Tabata and Alvarez will not leave with Team next Spring.

In addition, who knows what position Alvarez will be at – as it seems everyone keeps mentioning a switch from 3B to 1B since his fielding hasn’t been great nor his range. If that’s the case he will spend some time in AAA/AA working on 1B Defense.

by lfhlaw on Aug 31, 2009 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would be stunned...

…if Alvarez see the majors in 2010. Early 2011 is the best guess.

by Brakeman8 on Aug 31, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's entirely possible in 2010.

He hit .333 with an OPS over 1.000 at Altoona for half the season. I strongly suspect that he starts 2010 at Indianapolis. Even if he regresses some…to say .280-.290 with an OPS around .900…the lack of offense with the Pirates will probably enough for him to get called up by the ASB.

by Thunder on Aug 31, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This organization is known for not rushing prospects. I don’t see any real reason for the Pirates to start the major league clock on Alvarez until early 2011. That’s not saying that’s the way it will be, just one poor sap’s opinion.

by Brakeman8 on Sep 1, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One reason is you don’t want his development to stagnate.

by Gorkys n' Beans on Sep 1, 2009 3:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stagnate?

With one full season of AAA? Does that mean his best season in MLB will be his rookie season because his development will stagnate after that? That’s a pretty poor argument.

by Brakeman8 on Sep 1, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sometimes the player responds better to challenge. We saw how well Alvarez did in A+ compared to the higher level of AA. If he would have been held at Lynchburg for a whole year, it could negatively affect his development. It’s a moot point because Alvarez will be in Pittsburgh some time next year (barring injury or overwhelming struggle).

by Gorkys n' Beans on Sep 1, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Alvarez’s biggest problem at Lynchburg is that there was no one else of any real quality in the lineup around him. I saw him play. No one wanted to pitch to him, so he was very frustrated and swinging at a lot of bad pitches. His promotion to AA was to get him in a line up with other quality hitters and it not only helped Alvarez, it helped the guys in the line up around him. Comments made by the Altoona manger a couple games after Pedro arrived confirmed just that!

by Brakeman8 on Sep 1, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

or maybe it’s not any of that psychobabble and he’s just getting better as his first professional season continues following nearly a year off from organized ball…

by johnnycuff on Sep 2, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Imagine

When he comes to Pittsburgh it will be just like Lynchburgh, no quality around him……kidding, kind of…

by GeneClines on Sep 2, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My opening day lineup, if a few guys play well enough:

1. McCutchen- CF
2. Milledge- LF
3. Jones- RF
4. Clement- 1B
5. Doumit- C
6. Young- 2B
7. LaRoche- 3B
8- Cedeno- SS
9. Duke- P

Starting Rotation: Duke, Maholm, Ohlendorf, Morton, Hart
Relievers: Capps, Chavez, Hanrahan, Meek, Karstens, Meloan
Bench: Vasquez, Pearce, Moss, Cruz, Walker

by Suffering Buc on Aug 30, 2009 11:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

looks like a no on meloan

DFA’d to make room for daniel mccutchen this morning.

by johnnycuff on Aug 31, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ascanio for Meloan

by dtoddwin on Aug 31, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My opening day lineup

1. McCutchen- CF Hoping for continued improvement and more power. May see him drop lower in the order if we can find another lead off man. If his power continues to develop, You may see Delwyn Young at Lead off.
2. Milledge- LF – Big question for me – will he continue to improve or is what we see what we get? his power seems to have left him as he really hasn’t hit many HR for the buccos.
3. Jones- RF – Will keep his job as long as he produces. Won’t see Tabata until mid-season next year. Tabata needs to hit AAA more consistently.
4. Doumit- C – Bounces back from wrist injury to post some better offensive #‘s for next year. Think Pedro Alvarez when he hurt his wrist 2 yrs ago and didn’t show any power for a while.
5. Pearce – 1B Hoping he improves on last years offensive numbers and continues his decent defense otherwise Clemente may come up early to spell Pearce.
6. Young 2B – Fall ball should help his fielding skills. He’s a hitter as we’ve seen.
7. Andy LaRoche- 3B – Lately been hitting the ball out of the park a bit more than normal. Is this Andy becoming more relaxed and less pressed to show he belongs. His defense has been praised by the Bucs staff. (as for N Walker see below)
8- Cedeno- SS – will he post #’s like he has been doing at PNC Park, or will he drop back down to pre-trade numbers. Did Don Long really help improve his hitting?
9. Duke/Maholm as opening day starter

Starting Rotation: Duke, Maholm, Ohlendorf, Morton, Hart
Brad Lincoln or Daniel McCutcheon if he improves in AAA may come up mid season should any one falter in SP.

Relievers: Capps, Chavez, Hanrahan, Meek, Karstens, Meloan
Bench: Unsure Several free agents, Vasquez, Cruz

Walker will not be up as a bench player, I think that NH/FC want him to show something and think he can still be a everyday 3B and hope he improves and continues his torrid hitting into next year.
To me the same can be said for Jeff Clemente, especially since he needs to work on his Defense. Better to play daily then ride the pine. And I don’t see any other MLB Ready 1B in the minors.

by lfhlaw on Aug 31, 2009 1:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

1) How much more power would you expect from Cutch? His current output…if he played 162 games…would give him 22 HR. Probably eventually better suited as 3rd in the order.
2) Milledge…numbers are coming up…and he’s hitting .303 as a Pirate. I think the power will come back as his hand feels better. I think Milledge is probably going to end up profiling as a 3rd hitter unless they decide to put Cutch there.
3) Jones…I’ve expounded on elsewhere…I think he’s a placeholder till Tabata is ready…June or otherwise. For now…he should be hitting cleanup.
4) Doumit…better get his head out of his a$$. Either start playing ball or find another line of work. He may slide by this season…but if the attitude doesn’t improve…along with the output…they won’t keep him around.
5) Pearce…showing some signs of being useful at 1B…much more patient with this recall…not killing us on defense either.
6) Young…probably more suited to the 2 spot in the order. The worst thing that could happen to Young right now…Perry Hill not returning next year.
7) LaRoche…the Pirates CAN NOT have a sub .700 OPS guy at 3B unless he’s Brooks Robinson…and LaRoche isn’t. Andy better hope Walker doesn’t hit…or Andy better start hitting…NOW.
8) Cedeno…short of picking up a free agent…he’s safe…no matter what the offensive performance.

Bench…
Walker…if he hits halfway decent…even close to .750 OPS…3rd is his till Pedro arrives. Would not be a shock to see Neil or Andy moved to 2B…with Young becoming a Rob Mackowiak (good year) clone…playing a little bit of everything.
Vazquez…Management isn’t going to eat his $2M contract so he stays.
Cruz…probably shortest leash on the infield unless the bat wakes up.
Moss/Clement…one stays…one goes.
JJ/Diaz…one stays…one goes (unless Doumit does).

Assuming Pedro/Tabata are ready by June…Moss or Clement leaves…and an infielder.

Pitching…
Duke…safe
Maholm…safe
Ohlie…safe

Morton…Hart…McCutchen…Lincoln…two for the rotation, one for the pen. Lincoln will have options which will work against him unless he’s lights out.

Pen…
Chavez…Hanrahan…Meek…Karstens…lefty from somewhere…Capps (if he returns to normal).

Indy could have a pretty good rotation next year…or quite a few guys will leave as minor league FA after this season…Taubenheim, Davis, VV, Hacker, Dumatrait, etc.

by Thunder on Aug 31, 2009 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Opening Day

Cutch CF
Young 2B
Milledge LF
Jones RF
Pearce 1B
Doumit C
LaRoche/Walker 3B (too close to pick a winner)
Cedeno SS
Duke P

All Star Break
Tabata RF
Milledge LF
Cutch CF
Alvarez 3B
Jones/Pearce platoon 1B
Young 2B (or Walker/LaRoche winner)
Doumit C
Cedeno SS

After the ASB…I expect Young to be the Mackowiak clone…starting about 4-5 times a week at outfield corners and 2B/3B.

by Thunder on Aug 31, 2009 2:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It’s obvious that help for next year isn’t “on the way”, but our whole team is so ridiculously young that even if we keep the same people in place, the hope is that some of them will be better next year. LaRoche/Walker and Milledge shouldn’t be any worse than they are this year and could be a lot better. Charlie Morton has plenty of room to improve if he straightens some things out. Who knows what we’ll get out of Doumit, but he’s not going to be any worse than this year. While Jones probably isn’t going to get any better, Pearce and Clement may add some improvements to the offense at RF/1B.

While I don’t know that next year will be “good baseball” or anything, it will continue to be interesting to see how the talent weeds out. If our current ML roster doesn’t improve, I’m actually a lot more concerned about 2011 and 2012 than I am 2010.

charity standing orders

by BadMaafala on Aug 31, 2009 10:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agree

I look for Walker to really improve on his AAA numbers. Who knows, half a season of production might just force the Bucs to consider moving him up.

by GeneClines on Sep 2, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully it doesn’t have Neil Walker hitting 2nd or Luis Cruz/Bixler anywhere on the 25 man roster.

by Gorkys n' Beans on Sep 2, 2009 6:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

J. Clement will be the starting 1B on the team next year with Pearce on the bench

by BigB23 on Sep 2, 2009 11:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

my lineup

cf-cutch
2b-young
lf-milege
1b-jones
c-doumit
rf-moss
3b-LaRoche
ss-cedeno
p-duke or olendorf

we would be stupid if we called up clement or tabata and gave them jones’ spot in the order. If and that is a big IF but if jones continues to put up the numbers he has over the last few months we would be totally stupid to take him out of the lineup. he is gonna have a line of .290-.300 with 20+hr. and thats over half a season. keep him in there as long as he produces.

walker will have to have one hell of a spring to get the 3b job from LaRoche. tabata should spend most of the year in AAA and i think that we would be totally stupid to rush Alverez up. i think it mite be a good idea to let him start next season in Altoona, it cant hurt. we dont want or need to rush him. if he were to get up next season it would be almost pointless unless we are sure that he is ready.

by buccosfan on Sep 9, 2009 2:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lineup

Opening Day
1. A. McCutchen CF
2. A. LaRoche 3B
3. G. Jones RF
4. R. Doumit C
5. J. Clement / S. Pearce 1B
6. L. Milledge LF
7. D. Young 2B
8. R. Cedeno SS

Bench
R. Vasquez INF
S. Pearce 1B, RF /J.Clement 1B,C
B. Bixler INF/ OF
J. Jaramillo C
B. Moss OF

ALL Star Break
1. A. McCutchen CF
2. A. LaRoche 2B***( i feel delwyn will struggle a little and will be better served getting spot starts at 2B and in the OF and better served pinch hitting which hes pretty good at. and i feel Andy has good enough defense better than delwyn to make the switch to 2nd and if Andy reaches his potential with his bat… he will be well above average 2B if he puts up the numbers people believe he can.) Look for Andy to take a lot reps at 2B this Spring.
3. G. Jones RF
4. R. Doumit C
5. J. Clement 1B
6. N. Walker 3B***(Feel the Pirates ( if Neil is hitting the ball well in AAA) will give him the chance to show what he can do at 3B before Alvarez comes up… and who ever puts up worse numbers between Clement and Walker, Alvarez will take there job.)
7. L. Milledge LF
8. R. Cedeno SS

Bench
J. Jaramillo C
D. Young 2B/OF( Better served getting spot starts and pinch hitting)
B. Moss OF
S. Pearce 1B/RF
R. Vasquez INF

by BigB23 on Sep 22, 2009 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

2011 Lineup

(R. Doumit, S. Pearce, and B. Moss will be traded or let go)
Lineup
1. A. McCutchen CF
2. J. Tabata RF
3. J. Clement 1B
4. P. Alvarez 3B
5. L. Milledge LF
6. A. LaRoche 2B
7. T. Sanchez C
8. R. Cedeno SS

Bench
N. Walker 3B/C/2B/SS (Feel this spring Neil will become super utility…take reps at SS, and 2B and will spot start a lot for the pirates in 2011)
G. Jones 1B/OF ( will move to the bench after 2010 letting Tabata and Clement play will also get spot starts)
D. Young 2B/OF ( along with Walker he will spot start a lot too just like he will at the end of 2010)
FREE AGENT MIDDLE INFIELDER or Brought over in trade
J. Jaramillo C

by BigB23 on Sep 22, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs