Why we shouldn't have traded Gorzelanny.

This post had nothing to do with the players we got in return but rather that we sold low on a valuable asset.  A team in our position cannot dump assets and what makes this trade even more puzzing is that there was no reason for it.  We had plenty of time to let Gorzo regain some value before we dealt him.  Given his 2007 success, even if he failed, some other team was likely to take a flier on him and we would have received a return not much different from what we got.  I think Gorzelanny would have regained some value had he been given the chance instead of wasting innings on the worthless Virgil Vasquez.  Let's take a look at Gorzo's career numbers to see what I'm talking about.

In 2006, Gorzo had a 3.79 ERA in the majors with 5.84 K/9 and 4.52 BB/9 in 61.2 innings.  His BABIP was .260 so it was obvious that he was pretty lucky but you will see numbers like that in a small sample size.  In 2007 however, he had a 3.88 ERA (along with 14 wins) in over 200 IP.  He also averaged 6.02 K/9 while averaging 3.03 BB/9.  The walk rate was still pretty high but he was successful nonetheless.  He had an FIP of 4.24 but he also had a BABIP of .311 which indicates his ERA was probably right where it should have been.  Now we all know that his 2008 season in the majors was disastrous with his ERA and BB/9 skyrocketing while his K/9 declined.  His ERA pretty much equaled his FIP but his BABIP was .303 which was still a little high.  Regardless, he stunk in 2008.  Now you all take notice, and everyone probably remembers anyway, that he worked over 200 IP in 2007 while working a total of 160 in 2006.  That is quite a jump and probably explains the decrease in velocity more than the coming into camp out of shape.  He was sent to AAA at the end of 2008 where he had success but his “stuff” was still not the same.

In 2009, however, Gorzo did not make the team out of camp because he needed to work on "consistently repeating his delivery."  Well, his numbers in AAA showed that he had figured something out because over 87 innings he had an ERA of 2.48 while averaging 8.79 K/9 and  3.1 BB/9 (about the same as 2007).  He also had an FIP of 2.87 and a BABIP of .304 which is still a little high suggesting that his ERA could have been even better with some better defense and luck, albeit just a little bit.  As reported by DK on the PG blog, he had also regained his velocity which helped him be so successful as a 25 year old in 2007.  He was brought to the majors as a reliever for a stint where he had an ERA of 5.19 in 8.2 IP.  ERA’s for relivievers, especially in extremely low sample sizes, can be deceiving but from his short time in the Burg it was obvious to me that he was throwing better than 08.  While a 5.19 ERA is not good anywhere he had a FIP of 2.83 which was over 2 runs better than his ERA which suggest he was hurt by some bad defense.  He also had a 1.75 K/BB ratio witch was pretty close to the 1.99 K/BB ratio he had in 2007.  Additonally he had a 1.15 WHIP in Pittsburgh and a 1.18 WHIP in Indy which is a heck of a lot better than the 1.80 WHIP he had in 2008.

It can be argued that Gorzo  would or would not have regained his form.  The point I'm trying to make is that given his performance in AAA this year coupled with his regained velocity, there was absolutely no reason not to give him a another chance.  I would have felt much better had we sold high on Duke or Maholm.

 All of this being said, was Gorzo a lock to repeat his 2007 performance?  Absolutely not.  But was it possible? Absolutely!  The numbers suggest that this wasn’t a guy we should have been giving up on.  They also suggest that he would have been better in 2009 than he was in 2008.  If there was an attitude problem or a conflict of personalities and it was predetermined that Gorzo was out the door, than I say he should have been starting instead of Vasquez in order to increase his trade value.  At the end of the day, we sold LOW on Gorzo and that was a big misktake.