Before we put too much stock in the draft....

There were some injuries and some blatant misfires (see my old post about Bullington being the worst #1 of all time in any sport) …

Matt Bush has to have taken that crown by now.

Nice post; I’ve been thinking the same thing after doing my own Littlefield-era draft research. NH’s two drafts in and of themselves are proof of marked improvement in the system, resulting in far more legitimate prospects and total upside than most of Littlefield’s combined. I still like 1 (yes, only 1… pathetic) selection from Littlefield’s last two drafts: Quincy Lattimore, who isn’t exactly world-beating.

On a related note, if NH were in charge In The Year Of Moskos, I firmly believe he would have done the right thing and selected Wieters. The super-prospect has struggled thus far this year, but the somewhat-reliable PECOTA forecast calls for a 2011 (the year in which I hope we at least sniff decency) weighted mean line of 31 HRs, .313 BA, .404 OBP, .548 SLG. Adding a level of production even approaching that to a lineup also featuring Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen results in a very legitimate batting order.

Willie Harris (1996) never signed with the Pirates (signed with Orioles)…and Brian Tallet (1999) didn’t sign either (Indians in 2000).

I didn’t put some of those guys because they haven’t been up for over a year, like Bixler. The older ones, I fanned on, but didn’t miss anyone important.

Shayborg, the reason I pick Bullington as the worst #1 pick is because of who they could have had:

B.J. Upton
Zach Greinke
Prince Fielder
Jeff Francis
Jeremy Hermida
Scott Kazmir
Joe Saunders
Nick Swisher
James Loney
Khalil Greene
Joey Votto
Jon Lester
Jonathan Broxton
Brian McCann
Charlie Morton

Compare that to who was in the first couple rounds in 2004

Justin Verlander
Jered Weaver
Stephen Drew
Reid Brignac
Homer Bailey
Jovanni Gallardo
Hunter Pence
Dustin Pedroia
J.A. Happ

Combine that with the fact that Littlefield drafted him with the #1 pick overall thinking he would be a #3 starter….that makes it sadder.

It’s like in the NBA when the Clippers took Olowokandi instead of Bibby, Nowitzki, Carter, Jamison, Pierce and Lewis. Just a tragic case of what if.

If you google around, you can pretty easily find some contemporaneous assessments of the 2003 draft. I know I have found John Sickels easily. He did not criticize the Pirates for picking Bullington, and I think there was another one that I found that had a similar view. There were questions about Upton; he was viewed as the highest upside pick, but riskier. Bullington was safer. I guess that led to the infamous 3d starter quote, but the fact is that everyone thought he was a good bet to be a solid starter. Somehow he lost 4 mph off his fastball by the time he reported to the Pirates. It wasn’t a crazy pick, like Moskos.

Here is that link, actually to the 2002 draft.

http://assets.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/draft/1391123.html

This is what he said about the top two picks:

Plenty of high school players fill up first round
________________________________________By John Sickels
Special to ESPN.com
Here are some initial impressions of the players picked in the first round in the 2002 draft. This year’s draft class did not have a super-talent like Mark Prior available, and some of the players that went in the first round would have gone in the second or third round some years. But while the “peak” of talent was down this season, there was considerable depth, especially in high school pitching. The biggest weakness was college position players.

1. Pirates, Bryan Bullington, RHP, Ball State University
A 6-5, 210 pound right-hander, Bullington became the class of the college pitching ranks this year after Bobby Brownlie struggled with arm problems. His fastball peaks at 96 mph, though 91-94 is his usual range. His slider is very good, and he has enough pitching aptitude to improve his changeup. Scouts like his work ethic and mound demeanor. Statistically, his 139/18 K/BB ratio for Ball State implies that he should have little trouble with the low minors once he signs; he could reach Double-A very quickly. Bullington does not project as a true ace, but few scouts doubt that he’ll be a successful major-league pitcher, assuming good health of course. You should assume that the standard injury disclaimer applies to all of these reports.

2. Devil Rays, B.J. Upton, SS, Greenbriar Christian HS, Chesapeake, Va.
In a draft that is fairly weak in position players, Upton stands out. One of the best overall athletes available this year, Upton is also a polished baseball player, drawing comparisons to a young Derek Jeter. His glove is superb: his arm, range, and hands all rate as above-average to excellent. He should have no trouble playing shortstop in pro ball. While Upton hit over .600 in high school this year, some people are uncertain about how much power he’ll show with wood against professional competition. He is physically strong, but may not develop much more than gap power due to a line drive swing and a lanky body. He should hit for average, but will that be .280 or .320? He runs extremely well, so he’ll be a basestealing danger when on base. Most experts consider Upton to be the best player in the draft this year, falling to the D-Rays only because the Pirates wanted a pitcher and were uncertain they could meet Upton’s asking price.

Since I went to the 2003 draft by mistake, here are a couple tidbits from that one. It is now six years that people are mentioning Milledge’s “off-field issues.” I don’t think they are going to disapper tomorrow.

8. Pittsburgh: Paul Maholm, LHP, Mississippi State University
A polished lefty, Maholm doesn’t have the upside of recent Pirate college pitching picks John VanBenschoten and Bryan Bullington. But he throws strikes, knows what he’s doing, and should move quickly up the ladder.

12. New York (NL): Lastings Milledge, OF, HS, Palmetto, Fla.
Tool-laden athlete with a good track record of performance. Projected as a top five pick earlier in the year, so this is a potential bargain at this point in the draft, assuming that off-the-field issues which have hurt his reputation don’t reoccur.