Bucs Dugout: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: The Boxing Bulletin for Boxing Fans!

2009 Pittsburgh Pirates Top 30 Prospects

The signing of Zach Von Rosenberg means the Pirates have inked all the 2009 draftees they picked who'd fit into this list right away, so I'll go ahead and post this now. A couple notes:

Prospect rankings are, by their nature, speculative, and this list is more speculative than most, since such a large percentage of the Pirates' actual prospects were selected in the last two drafts. Obviously, it's extremely hard to tell how an 18-year-old pitcher will fare in the majors, and comparing a high-upside high school pitcher to a more polished AA or AAA player is extremely tricky and may say more about the ranker's personal preferences than anything else.

About the grades: basically, they're modeled off of John Sickels', and they could mean any number of things. A Grade A prospect is a can't miss prospect with tremendous upside. Pedro Alvarez approaches that level for me but doesn't quite reach it because of his strike-zone issues, but I'd still rank him among the best prospects in all baseball. Ranking prospects when you get to the C+/C range is very tough, because those grades could a couple of things. Argenis Diaz, for example, gets a C for being very likely to make it to the majors but not having much upside once he gets there, while Trent Stevenson also gets one for being a complete lottery ticket--he has a small chance of reaching the majors but considerable upside if he does. Same grade, two different meanings.

The grades are provided not so much to judge the player as to provide a frame of reference. A system with a considerable number of players with grades of C+ or better generally has a lot of depth; that's the case with the Pirates right now. Many other systems in baseball would have more grades of B+ or higher, however.

This list does not include players who have spent significant time in the big leagues, such as Jeff Clement, Andrew McCutchen, Lastings Milledge, Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio or Charlie Morton.

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Altoona. Grade: A-. An easy choice for the top spot, despite Alvarez' early struggles at Lynchburg. Alvarez has mostly righted the ship after being promoted to Altoona, hitting for a much higher average without sacrificing any power. His strikeouts and defensive issues are still a concern, but I'm a lot more convinced than I was two months ago that he's going to hit 30 bombs a year in the majors.

2. Tony Sanchez, C, West Virginia. Grade: B+. This is, I admit, an aggressive ranking, but that has more to do with my skepticism about Tabata and Alderson than anything else. Still, Sanchez's performance at West Virginia so far has been promising, and although Sanchez lacks star power, he seems to be a good bet to reach the big leagues quickly and perform well once he gets there.

3. Jose Tabata, OF, Indianapolis. Grade B+. Tabata had a decent year without putting to rest any of the questions about him--Can he hit for power? Can he keep his personal life in order? Tabata is still young and very promising, but he has a lot to work out. 

4. Tim Alderson, SP, Altoona. Grade: B+. This is a good pitching prospect, but I have doubts about his ability to continue to strike out batters as he moves up the chain. If he doesn't get hurt--always an "if" with pitchers just a couple years out of high school--he's a good bet to post solid walk numbers in the majors, if nothing else. 

5. Brad Lincoln, SP, Indianapolis. Grade: B. Lincoln has struggled a bit since his promotion to Class AAA, and it's worth keeping in mind that he's already 24. He'll probably make his Pirates debut next year, but judging from his minor league profile, he looks more like a mid-rotation starter than an emerging ace.

6. Robbie Grossman, OF, West Virginia. Grade: B. Grossman strikes out too much, but 19-year-olds who can hold their own in full-season ball don't grow on trees, and Grossman's .381 OBP bodes well for his future.

7. Rudy Owens, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: B. As with Alderson, this is a good pitching prospect. The numbers don't lie: Owens now has 101 strikeouts, 16 walks and a 1.55 ERA in 110 innings this year. But it will be interesting to see how Owens' stuff and flyball tendencies play at higher levels.

8. Starling Marte, OF, West Virginia. Grade: B-. Marte, who was hyped as a prospect even before he made it to the states, hasn't exactly quieted the buzz by posting a .333 average in his first 132 at bats for the Power.

9. Zach Von Rosenberg, SP. Grade: B-. Von Rosenberg is probably the highest-upside member of the Pirates' 2009 draft class. Obviously, though, he's a million miles from the majors, and it's unwise to put one's hopes in one basket where teenage pitching prospects are concerned.

10. Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Altoona. Grade: C+. Hernandez has been a disappointment since arriving in the Nate McLouth trade, but at age 21, he still has time to develop some power and refine his on-base skills.

11. Jeff Locke, SP, Lynchburg. Grade C+. Another addition from the McLouth trade, Locke is still just 21 and is more interesting than his 5.23 ERA this year suggests. He gets a fair number of grounders and strikeouts, and has improved his walk rate since arriving from the Braves.

12. Daniel McCutchen, SP, Indianapolis. Grade: C+. McCutchen has had a solid season from Indianapolis, but at age 26, he's running out of time to separate himself from the Virgil Vasquezes of the world.

13. Brett Lorin, SP, West Virginia. Grade: C+. Lorin has been lost in the shuffle somewhat because he was one of about a million young players acquired within a 48-hour period, but it's worth pointing out that he now has a 2.32 ERA with 94 strikeouts in 100.7 innings this year.

14. Colton Cain, SP. Grade: C+. Cain is another high-upside arm from the 2009 draft, paid a bonus of over $1 million. He hasn't yet pitched professionally.

15. Bryan Morris, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C+. I haven't the slightest idea what to make of Morris, but his season has been a complete bust. He's still young and still has a first-round pedigree, though, so it would be unwise to write him off completely.

16. Chase D'Arnaud, SS, Lynchburg. Grade: C+. D'Arnaud has had a serviceable first full season for an early-round draftee from a major college program. That might be faint praise, but at least it's praise. His game (strike zone control, the ability to play shortshop) should someday earn him a spot as a bench infielder, at the very least.

17. Quinton Miller, SP, West Virginia. Grade: C+. Miller's stats at West Virginia haven't been so hot, but I'm not sure I'd worry much about those yet; he still has a great fastball, and he's young for the level.

18. Brooks Pounders, SP, Bradenton. Grade: C. Pounders, a 2009 second-round pick, earns a spot with a great debut for so far in rookie ball. As with Alderson and Owens, he's not supposed to have blazing stuff, so he could be tested as he moves up.

19. Trent Stevenson, SP. Grade: C. Another live-armed bonus baby from the 2009 draft, although Stevenson is probably even riskier than Von Rosenberg or Cain, since he may need to alter his mechanics a bit.

20. Quincy Latimore, OF, West Virginia. Grade: C. Latimore hasn't yet had a season in which he's really been dominant, but he's hit for a good average and excellent power at a young age this year. Strike-zone issues might be his achilles heel.

21. Josh Harrison, 2B, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Harrison is small, but he's posted an .825 OPS so far this year. He's a longshot, but he's Freddy Sanchez if absolutely everything breaks right for him.

22. Ronald Uviedo, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Uviedo pitched his way onto the Bucs' 40-man roster with a good performance at Hickory last year, and he's doing it again this year, this time as a starter. He should join Altoona's rotation in 2010.

23. Nathan Adcock, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. You can forget about that ugly ERA at High Desert, which is one of the toughest places for pitchers anywhere in the minor leagues. Instead, check out those 82 strikeouts in 77.3 innings last year in Class A, or his solid first two starts for the Hillcats. This guy is a prospect until he proves otherwise.

24. Jarek Cunningham, IF, Bradenton. Grade: C. Cunningham is out for the year, but don't forget about him. He had easily  the strongest 2008 performance of anyone from that year's draft class, and he'll be back at full strength next year.

25. Exicardo Cayonez, OF, VSL. Grade: C. He's all the way down at the VSL, but as a 17-year-old bonus baby with a .396 OBP and bunches of doubles, he's got a shot.

26. Neil Walker, 3B, Indianapolis. Grade: C. 2004 first-round pick is having the same crap year he had last year. He has power and defensive ability, neither of which will do a bit of good unless he can hit for average or draw some walks.

27. Argenis Diaz, SS, Indianapolis. Grade: C. Sure, he can field, but can he hit? At all?

28. Michael Dubee, RP, Altoona. Grade: C. A reliever, yes, but one who has 73 strikeouts and 11 walks to go with a 1.87 ERA so far this year. He deserves more attention.

29. Rogelios Noris, OF, Bradenton. Grade: C. Mexican outfielder hit well in the VSL in 2008 and has posted a .980 OPS so far this year in the Gulf Coast League.

30. Victor Black, SP, State College. Grade: C. A top pick from the 2009 draft, Black throws hard and has a strikeout per inning so far for the Spikes.

Others worth watching: Evan Chambers, Zackry Dodson, Nate Baker, Diego Moreno, Ramon Cabrera, Nelson Pereira, Mitchell Fienemann, Jhonathan Ramos, Zachary Fuesser, Jonathan Barrios, Roberto Espinoza, Jorge Bishop, Calvin Anderson, Jordy Mercer, Hunter Strickland, Casey Erickson, Aaron Pribanic, Brian Friday, Jeff Sues, Tyler Herron, Eric Hacker, Danny Moskos, Benjamin Gonzalez. There are also several 2009 draftees still unsigned who would fit into this list, although not in the top 30. 

0 recs  |  Comment 122 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Moskos

I get more and frustrated with Pirates ownership and then way the team was mismanaged in the past. Nothing against Moskos, but look, he’s not even in the Top 30 prospects list for us. We passed on Matt Weiters, who would have been #1 on our list, who is now taking the starting catcher job full time for Baltimore. How much more would it have cost ownership to sign Weiters? 3-4 million more than what we paid Moskos? I wouldn’t even imagine trying to route for another team, I’m a die hard Pirates fan, but some of the crazy talent evaluators in the past are just driving me insane.

by kjones1968 on Aug 9, 2009 10:00 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i pretty much agree with you, i'm glad you rated rosenberg high

and morris low. but, i think dodson, could be a lot higher than others worth watching. all-in-all.
A- rankings

When we hit you, you don't get up. When you hit us, we get up laughing.

by air holmes on Aug 9, 2009 10:20 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice job

Hard to do more than quibble. I’d probably drop D.McCutchen, Lorin, and Harrison, and Dubee wouldn’t be on there. I’d move Morris into the top ten and Miller up a little.

by WTM on Aug 9, 2009 10:36 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I’d also favor upside a bit more and drop McCutchen a handful of spots below guys like Morris and Miller, and also recent pick Cain. I like Hernandez as a prospect still, would be closer to the top 5.. Overall an excellent summary, though.

by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 9, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

your rankings are a joke

these rankings are so off base its terrible…you have chase d’arnaud and josh harrison above Neil Walker?? I basically laughed at that. Especially for the fact that Walker is hitting for the most power as any prospect right now and has really good defense. Also I can’t stand that everyone on this site ranks pitchers are there strikeout rate. If a pitcher can consistantly get hitters out, who the F cares if his strikeout rate is low…

by FusilliJerry88 on Aug 9, 2009 11:02 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, Charlie, how could you underrate a guy with a sub-.300 OBP so much. You’re totally ignoring his mediocre slugging average. And who cares that minor league ERAs have basically no predictive value? They didn’t have K rates on the back of bubble gum cards when I was a kid. They had ERAs and won-loss records! What a fucking joke. (Ooh, I spelled it out.)

by WTM on Aug 9, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Shall we play a little game here?

It’s called ‘find the most consistent stats for pitchers’. Turns out K/9 and ground ball percentage are the two most highly correlated statistics per season. If either are high, then there is a good chance the pitcher (Ks for players like Lincecum, ground ball percentage for players like Maddux) will do better in the bigs than someone who has a low era but particularly low K/9 and GB% rates.

And I won’t comment on your love fest for Neverwalker.

by ryebr3ad on Aug 9, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This guy

almost makes me hope Neil Walker fails even more….almost. Are you related to him? Maybe you’re his agent?

Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock

by Green_Wave on Aug 9, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I tend to think

that Walker’s agent would be better at grammar, capitalization & the correct use of apostrophes.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 9, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're a Joke

Walker is in his 3rd year of AAA, He has a .250 Ba, 47:20 K:BB, sub.300 OBP, sub .800 OPS, and a slugging % comparable to Bixler. He is no where close to the majors and isn’t showing any progress since last year to even say he is improving. Yes, he fields well, and has shown power, but the rest of his numbers are terrible, I thought it was generous to even have him in the 30 considering he will never play 3rd on the major league team so is basically without a position. It’s tough to be considered a prospect if you can’t hit and don’t have a position unlike D’Arnaud and Harrison who are younger, play a projectable position and are actually improving.

by SteelCity G on Aug 9, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

a slugging % comparable to Bixler

Ooohh, that’s gotta hurt.

by WTM on Aug 10, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

In fairness to Walker...

…Bixler’s SLG is more heavily BA-driven.

That said, Walker’s OBP really sinks him. If anything, I think Charlie’s being a bit generous in his ranking.

by Vlad on Aug 10, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

FusilliJerry88

PBC Blog is over that way you know just past the Hill District on the corner Oakland and South Side…..there’s plenty of room for that asylum. Hey, even Nutting Hostage will make you become an honorary chairman for a day.

If you don’t like what Charlie has to say don’t bother coming back here.

by BadAndy on Aug 9, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hold on

There’s nothing wrong with criticism or discussion, just be polite about it, unlike that clown.

I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.

by Chester J Lampwick on Aug 9, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, groupthink is not only silly, but boring.

“Here’s the list of the 30 best prospects.”

“Right on, Charlie!”

“If God himself delivered a list from on high, this would be exactly it!”

        RE: “God has nothing on Charlie!!!”

by CptnAwesome on Aug 9, 2009 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right on!

by WTM on Aug 10, 2009 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Know who sould be ranked, but isn't?

Batman. Because he’s awesome.

Wait, why are you leaving? Isn’t there any room here for alternative viewpoints?

by Vlad on Aug 10, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Batman

is not a team player and would be a cancer in the locker room, that’s why he’s not ranked.

by ravidesai1984 on Aug 10, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey...

Why don’t you give us your own Top 30 with rational explanations for each player instead of whining about Charlie’s list here in the comments.

I’m guessing your Top 10 might look something like this:

1. Neil Walker
2. Neil Walker
3. Neil Walker
4. Neil Walker’s Evil Twin
5. Neil Walker
6. Goateed, Alternate Universe Neil Walker
7. Neil Walker
8. Neil Walker
9. Neil Walker’s Secret Love Child
10. Neil Walker

Now, please fill out 11 – 30 and report back.

by maguro on Aug 9, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 9, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I kinda thought Jared Hughes would be on there somewhere.

by WTM on Aug 10, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

6. Goateed, Alternate Universe Neil Walker

by WTM on Aug 10, 2009 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

ha +1

Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock

by Green_Wave on Aug 10, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You are kidding, right?

Walker has a horrible strikeout rate, OBP and OPS. If he weren’t a first-rounder, he probably would be gone by now.

He has one more year to show he can hit for average or he’s gone.

by Bernie6666 on Aug 9, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m still waiting for Nutting Hostage to post again about how this year’s draft is the worst in Pirates history.

by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 9, 2009 11:59 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Worse than the year...

…where the only guy who made the majors was Fat Jimmy?

Alllrighty, then.

by Vlad on Aug 10, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

“St. Louis, 13th round, 1999: Albert Pujols
Nuttings, 13th round, 2009: Walker Gourley

The Nuttings are too cheap to draft an Albert Pujols in the 13th round."

— NutHo

by WTM on Aug 10, 2009 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Heh

I’ve seriously considered creating an alter ego and posting idiotic stuff at that blog to see how many people I can get to agree.

by WTM on Aug 10, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why do I have little doubt

they would agree with the above statement?

Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock

by Green_Wave on Aug 10, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We should create a web quiz. Take 10 ridiculous statements like your quote above, and 10 ridiculous real things said on the PBC blog, and ask users to pick which are true and which are fake.

by CptnAwesome on Aug 10, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

Here’s the first one. What was the response to this statement?

Congratulations…you are the last person I know that uses RBIs and batting average to fully evaluate a baseball player. Two ridiculous statistics to evaluate how well a player is performing. How about you try OPS for starters and then gently move on to wOBA, IsoP, WAR, UZR and WPA if you want to make statements about how good/bad a player is.

 
Option 1:
I think some things are pretty clear without breaking out a bunch of stupid, over rated stats that people like you are carried away with.

Option 2:

Batting average is the best way to evaluate a player. Just look at Nyjer Morgan. he is hitting over .300 and is leading the Nats on a winning streak. Greater RBIs=greater player. But of course I wouldn’t expect a pro-nutter to understand that. Still fielding phone calls in the front office this late?

Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock

by Green_Wave on Aug 10, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hah, that’s awesome, Green. I’m going to go with #2, only because it shows a particular infatuation with Nyjer Morgan in particular, while #1 is just a general attack.

We should do a full blown one. It would be fun.

by CptnAwesome on Aug 11, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m going to guess #1, but I’m not sure the answer isn’t “both”.

charity standing orders

by BadMaafala on Aug 11, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And the answer is....

Number one…I fabricated number 2, but I’m sure someone was thinking it.

Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock

by Green_Wave on Aug 11, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think NuHo actually said that before this signing…because we had signed a lower number of total picks than the rest of the division. Seriously.

by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 10, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How does this compare with other teams?

I have a blissful ignorance of most other teams farm systems except for the top prospects. So how does the Pirates system right now, two years into the NH experiment, compare with other teams?

Our top 30 seems at least average and possibly a little better than that, am I wrong?

I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.

by Chester J Lampwick on Aug 9, 2009 12:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

farm systems

i believe i read in a comment or article somewhere that the pirates farm was 18th last year. The same argued that it was hard to see it go higher, because there weren’t enough real impact prospects. I m, to a large degree, in agreement- however, I would still be surprised if we didn’t move higher, purely with alderson in now. Also, Tabata and Alvarez have surely improved their stock from last season. With the addition of the players through trades (assuming drafts being equal) we should be looking at climbing a few spots!

If anyone knows where there’s an article comparing the various farm systems, do link!

by BurgherKing on Aug 9, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

draft

Given the signings of all four wish-list pitchers (Cain, ZVR, Stevenson, Dodson), I believe most evaluators (even Callis) would rank the Pirates’ draft class in the Majors’ top 5 classes.

Immediately after the draft, Keith Law said something to the effect of that if we sign 1 or 2 of those guys, it’s a pretty good draft, while signing all 4 makes it a great draft.

by colfanmat14 on Aug 9, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A great draft

doesn’t make this a great system yet, imo. Comes down to who grades, as all this is subjective, but I’d want to see those kids perform for a bit before making this into a great system. I still think that, as noted below, that

a) The Pirates system is probably still in the lower half of the majors, due to lack of ready, quality assets in the upper levels.

b) The NL Central doesn’t have a strong system right now. Cubs/Reds have solid systems, along with the Pirates, but in that respect, the PIrates are in solid positioning if their youngsters from this year start to develop.

by toonsterwu on Aug 16, 2009 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There has been a lot of optimism expressed on this site

over the potential of the Pirates becoming competitive between 2011 and 2013. If it is true, that our system was 18th last year and has moved up a few spots to become, say, slightly above average instead of slightly below, it is hard for me to understand the reason for the optimism. Surely we will be at a disadvantage relative to the average team in attracting FAs.

Do people see the young players on the Pirates and at AAA, who don’t qualify as prospects due to major league service time -eg Cutch, Morton, Clement, Pearce, Jones etc – as far better than what other teams have at that level or is there some other reason for the optimism? Perhaps the optimists believe that NH is a far better GM than most and will do a better job of assembling the team for those years than most other GMs.

by WestCoastBuc on Aug 9, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Part of it is involved with

what you mentioned in the second paragraph. The Pirates have plenty of young talent that aren’t defined as prospects at the present moment. Ultimately it is the depth at the corner infield positions, the outfield, and pitching throughout the majors and minor leagues right now.

If you look at the outfield you have Cutch, who is well on his way to establishing himself as an elite centerfielder (considering offense and defense) and have other guys that are young and could develop at all levels of the system. These guys include Milledge, Moss (there’s still a faint glimmer), Tabata, Hernandez, Grossman, Latimore, and Marte. Looking at all that it is fair to hope that the opening roster in 2012 will have an outfield that is well above average.

The same thing holds true in the corner infield spots. At first you have Clement, Pearce, and farther down the totem pole, Calvin Anderson, along with Garrett Jones (who could end up somehow sustaining his major league career so far), with Alvarez maybe making the move over. At third you have LaRoche, Walker (still a faint glimmer), and of course Alvarez. There is more risk involved because of less depth (mainly if Alvarez fails for one reason or another) but it is also fair to hope that the corner infield spots will be above average on the whole.

As far as pitchers go, for the starting rotation the “depth” consists in no particular order, Duke (the one pitcher we may keep from the opening day 2008 roster), Morton, Lincoln, Alderson, Lorin, Adcock, Von Rosenburg, Cain, Owens, Morris, Locke, Stevenson, Pribanic, and Dodson among others. There are plenty of options for the bullpen as well. We may not have a standard issue “ace” in the system but could end up with a very good rotation (like the cardinals of this year) in a few years.

We are a bit thin in the middle infield and at catcher, but could easily have a couple of very good players pop up to fill these positions.

That’s where the optimism comes from. Also remember, we still have a few more trade chips and a few more drafts before our 2011-2013 window (which I’d say should be 2012-2014).

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 9, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

like WTM said

it’s probably mere quibbling, but:

I’d argue it’s unfair to have Latimore 15 spots below Grossman – does a year of age make that much difference? And Latimore has (in spite of his lack of walks) been a bit more consistent across the season.

Also, Wilbur, why so down on Lorin? And I think I would drop walker in order to toss in someone like moreno

by geeves on Aug 9, 2009 12:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Lorin

I’m not down on him. I’d just probably rate him below the five or so guys Charlie has below him. Maybe not a good idea given his good K rate, but he’s not quite what I’d call overpowering and when I saw him start the other day I didn’t see a swing-and-miss offspeed pitch. He only fanned three, though, so maybe he’s usually been getting more swings and misses than when I saw him. Good command. Maybe the velocity will pick up a bit.

The truth is, there are so many good young arms in the system that weren’t there, oh, seems like yesterday even. It’s hard to sort through them all. They’re kinda running together right now.

Was Diego Moreno not on the list? I might put him on there.

by WTM on Aug 10, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great Job . . .

I like it better than the one on the Post-Gazette site. I’m excited about getting Jarek Cunnignham back, wouldn’t be surprised if he cracked the top 10 next year.

by Scranton on Aug 9, 2009 12:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I could be wrong . . .

But I count 24 of the 30 as having been acquired by NH. I have these six as being Littlefield acquisitions:

Lincoln
Owens
Marte
Latimore
Uviedo
Walker

That seems pretty good considering NH has been at the helm less than two years.

by biggyv on Aug 9, 2009 12:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

You've come a long way, baby...

…here’s Sickles’ Top 20 from 19 months ago (1/6/08):

1. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Grade A-
2. Steven Pearce, OF-1B, Grade B+
3. Neil Walker, 3B, Grade B (not convinced he’ll hit quite as well as they expect)
4. Daniel Moskos, LHP, Grade B
5. Brad Lincoln, RHP, Grade C+ (pending recovery from TJ)
6. Brian Bixler, SS, Grade C+
7. Shelby Ford, 2B, Grade C+
8. Duke Welker, RHP, Grade C+
9. Brian Friday, SS, Grade C+
10. Andrew Walker, C, Grade C+
11. Jamie Romak, OF, Grade C
12. Nyjer Morgan, OF, Grade C
13. Brad Corley, OF, Grade C
14. Bryan Bullington, RHP, Grade C
15. Matt Peterson, RHP, Grade C
16. Romulo Sanchez, RHP, Grade C
17. Quincy Latimore, OF, Grade C
18. Marcus Davis, OF, Grade C
19. Tony Watson, LHP, Grade C
20. Josh Sharpless, RHP, Grade C

Other grade “C” players at that time: James Boone, Pat Bresnahan, David Davidson, Yoslan Herrera, Jared Hughes, Evan Meek, Luis Munoz, Jonel Pacheco, Alexander Presley, Todd Redmond, Kevin Roberts, Brian Rogers, Marino Salas, and Keanon Simon.

by Traco Bucco on Aug 9, 2009 12:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Damn.....

That is interesting!

by dtoddwin on Aug 9, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow…when iROMULO! is in your top 20, it’s a bad sign.

www.sixtyftsixin.com

by Nate Rose on Aug 9, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Traco

That’s painful just to read again.

by Bernie6666 on Aug 9, 2009 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Man, that’s like some nightmare I remember from long ago. It never really happened, right?

by WTM on Aug 10, 2009 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah . . .

That was a trainwreck

by Scranton on Aug 9, 2009 1:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Great Job Charlie.....

Couple of questions for you, and then anyone else who wants to respond. Say ZVR signs as expected on Monday and a couple of high ceiling picks sign as well. If you slot these guys into the top 30 would you just remove guys from the bottom of the list or would you reshuffle the list to keep someone like Black in there?

Second, you seem to like Lorin a fair bit. Do you think he is clearly head and shoulders above the two other guys we got in the trade.

Third, if you feel the inclination can you give a sentence on a couple of these guys as to what they lack (or have) that would make them more or less interesting:
Calvin Anderson
Hunter Strickland
Jeff Sues
Casey Erickson
Eric Hacker

Thanks for taking the time on all this stuff.

by dtoddwin on Aug 9, 2009 1:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Anderson – plate discipline is a big issue. Strickland – I’d like to see more strikeouts. Sues – I’d like him to be younger, and not a reliever. He also allows a lot of flies, and consequently a lot of homers. Erickson is already performing well, but he’s a little bit old relative to his league. I’d like to see what he does at A+ or AA before I get too excited. Hacker is old-ish and has had starts recently where he’s racked up strikeouts like crazy and others where he’s had only a couple or none. If he could be a bit more consistent, he’d be pretty interesting.

by Charlie on Aug 10, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sues would be a lot more interesting if he was still throwing 94-97 like he was last year. Now he’s more like 89-92.

by WTM on Aug 10, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That’s interesting. I didn’t know that.

by Charlie on Aug 10, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Neither did I until I saw him pitch. He’s not the same guy I saw last year.

by WTM on Aug 10, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks guys

I was remembering WTM’s comment on Sues when I listed him.

by dtoddwin on Aug 10, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

dtodd

I wanted to mention that I saw your exchange with Keith Law, about ZVR and all. I agreed with all your comments.

by WTM on Aug 10, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice work Charlie.

What a difference a year makes. I notice some guys like Ford, Negych, J. Wilson and Hague don’t even make your honorable mention. Whether or not that should be the case it is interesting to see that you easily fill their spots with other names. Other than that I think that Miller and Morris should be ranked higher, and Alvarez is a solid “A” prospect, I like the list.

What does your list look like if we sign Sano? Does he go to one or two?

by Slick1 on Aug 9, 2009 1:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No way he's above Alvarez

2 might be a stretch, too.

by biggyv on Aug 9, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know...

they hype surrounding him is pretty big. SIze, strength and speed at age 16…I think he is at least #2. I’ll bet some experts would put him at #1. I personally agree with you that I wouldn’t rank him over Alvarez.

by Slick1 on Aug 9, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

2 wouldn't be outlandish by any stretch

I guess it goes to one’s methodology. a 16 year-old is even harder to project than a kid just out of high school, let alone a 22 year-old. It depends if one ranks players by their ceilings, or by reasonable expectations. I agree that Sano might have a higher ceiling than anyone currently in the Bucs’ organization.

by biggyv on Aug 9, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think it's pretty

tough to put a 17 y.o. kid above a 20 year old raking in AAA. I think he goes top 5. But, who really cares, everyone is basically guessing at that point.

by dtoddwin on Aug 9, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’d probably go with 2. The upside is just so great, even if the bust potential is also pretty great.

by Charlie on Aug 10, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fertile Farmland!

It’s good that opinions differ on the make-up of the Top Thirty. It promotes mostly healthy debate amongst all of us. But one thing I think we can all agree on is that the crops NH has planted are in rich, fertile soil and should be robust at harvest time. Sure, some will be destroyed by crows, the elements, parasites, pests, etc. And I admit that I am not a Phytopathologist nor did I play one on Green Acres. But the ones that will survive will allow us to reap a bountiful harvest. If you take a look at the farm stretching all the way down to the Dominican and especially Venezuela, you see a system that is becoming wealthy in talent from top to bottom for years to come, And what type of farmland did Farmer Dave leave us with? It was a barren fucking Dust Bowl!!

by tjc on Aug 9, 2009 3:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The only semi-big quibble I have

is being so bullish on Sanchez. Just too small of a sample size but I understand where you are coming from on it.

Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock

by Green_Wave on Aug 9, 2009 4:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I was very surprised to see this as well

My recollection is that several posters went on and on about what a terrible pick that was and Charlie seemed to have sympathy with that view..

by WestCoastBuc on Aug 9, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sanchez

I’m one of the posters to go on and on that Sanchez was a terrible pick at that spot in the draft.

I still believe that way and think he’s rated far too highly. He’s cooled off considerably.

But that’s just my perspective. I think what this posting shows is the amazing job that the team has done in turning a terrible minor league system into one with a great foundation.

It still needs help at double and triple A. But the improvement is astounding.

by Bernie6666 on Aug 9, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just because Sanchez was an overdraft doesn’t mean he’s not a good player.

by mak_DC on Aug 10, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just that he’s not as good a player as his draft slot would indicate.

by Vlad on Aug 10, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t disagree. And while he might not be the #2 prospect in our system, I do think he has to be in the top 5.

by mak_DC on Aug 10, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't have him there...

…but to each his own, I guess.

by Vlad on Aug 11, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If anything

You’re consistent Vlad.

by Slizeezyc on Aug 11, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey, I'm glad that he's played well since the draft.

But right now he’s a college junior hitting against a bunch of 18-year-old kids.

The bit that tells the tale on Sanchez, for me, is going to be the jump from A+ to AA. If his bat speed or pitch recognition are going to be an issue going forward, we’ll find out there.

by Vlad on Aug 12, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No

I didn’t mean it as a slight against you or anything, it’s good that you aren’t buying into the early success.

by Slizeezyc on Aug 12, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think

Grossman is too high and Latimore too low.

I also think you rate Tabata too low. I love him and honestly am torn between him and Alvarez. I will admit I’ve always been in love with a high average instead of a high homerun total. 300 is a more magical number than say 30 for me.

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 9, 2009 5:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

AVG. certainly isn't.....

meaningless, but way less meaningful than OBP and OPS.

by dtoddwin on Aug 9, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pedro is much better

But I wouldn’t call Tabata’s OPS chopped liver either, he just needs to start turning those doubles into homeruns to see a nice jump into the .900s

by MrPedriqueIfYoureNasty on Aug 9, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know

my point was I like Tabata more because I think he has more upside and less of a chance to fall apart. Although the last few months have significantly quelled my fears, I could see Alvarez being like Chris Young or Mark Reynolds (until this year) and squander all the power ability he has by not being able to make contact with the ball enough.

There seems to be no doubt that Tabata can hit for average and will still be useful even if the power never explodes. Ultimately, I guess my infatuation with Tabata is overstated and unfounded because I overvalue average and undervalue OPS. Both seem to be exciting players coming up though, I just love Tabata’s extreme youth.

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 9, 2009 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dodson

If you look at the bonuses given, I think the team must value Dodson higher than most scouting services. I think his bonus was in the neighborhood of $600,000, which is much more than Stephenson got. Maybe they had to pay him more to ensure Cain would come along, but it seems like the team holds him in pretty high regard.

http://www.whygavs.com
http://mlb.fanhouse.com

by whygavs on Aug 9, 2009 8:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice work

I agree with most of it. I think Uviedo, Pounders, Cunningham and Harrison deserve C+ grades, but that is a minor point. Uviedo seems like he has been under-rated for years. Until he got injured this season, I figured he would get promoted to AA.

by houksyndrome on Aug 9, 2009 8:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

True.

Uviedo is pretty criminally underrated, IMO.

by Vlad on Aug 10, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

14?

Well you havent seen him play yet so i wont be too harsh. Cain will mow down GCL hitters.

by bucsfan5 on Aug 9, 2009 9:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Look, I have a home town hero named Marlin Jackson

who plays for the Colts. But I don’t flip over cop cars every year he doesn’t make the Pro Bowl. We know Cain was a good high school pitcher, but just because you watched him doesn’t make him the very best. It seems like you underestimate every other major league player out there.

That being said, seeing that Cain just got out of high school, it would be foolish to rate him any higher than 10. 14 was a generous ranking.

by ryebr3ad on Aug 10, 2009 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I guess we will just have to agree to disagree

The fact that I have seen him play does not skew my opinion of him, nor am I underestimating other major league players. I base my opinion more on what others saw in him, he was a member of two USA Teams, MVP of Texas 4A/5A All Star Game(which Matt Purke,Todd Glaesmann, and Zack Dodson played in), University of Texas signee, and no less than 250 major league scots spent the time and effort to come see. If you will do a little research rather than just saying he is just a HS player thus far he has been one of the top 10 players in the nation for his age since he was 13 years old. Most of the time a player that has been that good for that long has a pretty good chance of continuing to do well regardless of the level of competition.

I am by no means saying he is ready to join the Pirates rotation tomorrow, but I do not think he will have any problems leap frogging the 13 scabs listed ahead of him in the top 30 rankings. We shall see!

by bucsfan5 on Aug 12, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Awww.....

you have to go ruin it by saying 13 scabs. How does anybody take anything you say seriously when you have no idea about the 13 guys listed ahead of him.

Let me give you some advice. If you want anybody to read your point and take you seriously don’t say really, really stupid stuff like that at the end. Try to be coherent and make a case for your point. You were off to a good start. Now you just sound like a moron.

As to your other points, nobody cares about the MVP of an all-star game. And ranking players nationally at age 13 or even 17 is pretty much the same as buying a lottery ticket. It is meaningless and only done to sell whatever it is printed in or on.

by dtoddwin on Aug 12, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Locke

Continued his run of solid pitching tonight with 5.1 innings of one-run ball in Lynchburg’s 4-2 victory over Myrtle Beach. In his last three starts, 16.1 innings, he’s allowed three ER on 12 hits, walking two and striking out 15. I’m hoping to see one of his games in Lynchburg before the end of the season.

by Traco Bucco on Aug 9, 2009 9:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

with a WHIP under 1

if he can keep it up, i could see an early promotion to AA next year maybe

by BurgherKing on Aug 9, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As an organization, they have developed a philosophy where

stats are going to play less of a role in deciding when guys move. Owens was a good example. They have views on guys developing pitches, particularly a change, at levels where they can be successful rather than players trying things at higher levels where they may lose confidence. No need to rush pitchers.

Not trying to repeat or talk down to anyone, just thought I’d repeat it if you haven’t seen it. Across the boards stats are really going to decide when guys move. It will be internal evaluation of whether they can compete and succeed and continue to develop at the next level.

by dtoddwin on Aug 9, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And of course,

you may be exactly right. He clearly has been very good.

by dtoddwin on Aug 9, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hell Alvarez is a good example of not using numbers to know when to move guys. Right before they moved him there were articles saying he may have to repeat high A.

by TravisDW on Aug 9, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seen it, and agree with it, hence the “if he can keep it up”!

Also, they could stay with Owens longer because there weren’t as many pitchers pushing for playing time then. A lot of people felt Owens was held back longer than necessary, and whether they continue to do this with a stocked farm, we ll have to wait and see. In fact, the first I heard of Owens going to hiA was when we were checking to see where the 3 A pitchers acquired from the Mariners would pitch. Its entirely possible that Owens’ long overdue promotion was expedited by the need for playing time for others.

This might continue to be the case especially if any of the advanced arms start showing development quickly enough. I agree totally about the need to develop specific pitches and/or work out certain kinks (say waiting to see if a guy can keep his walk numbers down over time), but if he seems to be doing all he can do with the pitch plus the level he’s facing, he might just need a better level to sharpen the skills.

by BurgherKing on Aug 10, 2009 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like that he has gotten his walks under control lately

hopefully he can keep it up.

Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock

by Green_Wave on Aug 9, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

NOT A CHANCE

Okay, just kidding about the not a chance thing. Anyway…

Von Rosenberg is probably the highest-upside member of the Pirates’ 2009 draft class. Obviously, though, he’s a million miles from the majors, and it’s unwise to put one’s hopes in one basket where teenage pitching prospects are concerned.

I’m nowhere near as knowledgeable about these guys as some of you, but I was really surprised by the above statement. From the snippets I’ve heard, I thought ZVR was the pitchability do-his-tools-transfer-to-the-majors type of guy, actually very similar to Alderson. I had thought Cain had some of the highest upside, based on his stuff.

Without assuming his “projectable frame” magically adds 3-4 MPH to his fastball or that he turns into Greg Maddox, what is the ZVR love all about? Does he have #1 upside?

charity standing orders

by BadMaafala on Aug 9, 2009 11:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Just one source

But I remember John Sickels saying he’s a big fan of ZVR and listed his ceiling at a good No. 2.

by woobie on Aug 10, 2009 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i m somewhat curious about this. What makes someone set a ceiling at a good No.2? Surely the difference between a good no.2 and a #1 cant be enormous. Especially given he s a HS pitcher and can develop, there seems to be no reason to stop there!

by BurgherKing on Aug 10, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Isn’t a no. 2 good by definition?

by WTM on Aug 10, 2009 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It is a point well taken but I would also direct your attention to our 2005 PBC and the pitching stylings of one Mr Mark Redman who was technically a no. 2 starter.

Albeit by the barest definition of the term.

by MrPedriqueIfYoureNasty on Aug 10, 2009 7:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK, a legit no. 2.

by WTM on Aug 10, 2009 7:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hey

ok, i get the point. My question might not have been clear. I wanted to ask what makes someone settle on s guy as a #2. The jump to #1 can be huge, but equally likely not. I know a lot of it is bound to be gut feeling, projections, MLEs, but is there something semi-quantifiable like not having 4 plus pitches or not being able to locate say 2 of them consistently?

by BurgherKing on Aug 10, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm guessing

it is something like a true #1 is top of the line, dominating guy like a Santana, Halladay, Peavy in his best years. Saying good #2 makes me think of more like a Zach Duke(this year) with a few more K’s. That’s how I interpret it anyways.

by Mr. E on Aug 10, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ahh okk

i see the point…

i ve always wondered if there was say a quantifiable difference between say a #3 and a #4- but i m guessing those just come down to inconsistencies, occasional really dismal outings etc… still kind hard to project though

by BurgherKing on Aug 10, 2009 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There have been some attempts to quantify it.

Such as this post at Lookout Landing.

Pittsburgh Lumber Co.
http://mvn.com/pittsburghlumberco

by MBandi on Aug 11, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The big plus with ZVR...

…is that he’s got both a fairly high floor and a fairly high ceiling.

Even if he doesn’t improve much from here, he’s still got three solid pitches, good command, and a relatively clean delivery. That’s a ML skill set, more or less. And if he does add some extra velo as he fills out his body, then that’s a front-of-the-rotation skill set. The big difference between a guy like Alderson and a guy like ZVR is that Alderson doesn’t have the kind of body type where you’d expect his stuff to improve a ton with age.

It’s tough to say whether a guy has #1 upside or not, because I don’t think I’ve ever met two people who had exactly the same opinion of what a #1 starter is. Top 30? Top 20? And over what length of time? How heavily do you weight durability? Etc.

by Vlad on Aug 10, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cool

Thanks for the info. I can certainly see the high floor. Is it too early to ask for comparable ML players?

charity standing orders

by BadMaafala on Aug 10, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Probably.

I mean, you could get comps in terms of pitching style, but in terms of value, it wouldn’t be particularly useful at this point.

by Vlad on Aug 10, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think that about 1/2 to 2/3 of the top 10 are about one notch too high on grading.

And the Sanchez ranking is, as you note, pretty crazy. But on the whole, not a bad job.

I’d probably move D’Arnaud and Uviedo up, and Lorin and Harrison down.

by Vlad on Aug 10, 2009 9:49 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't care so much about the rankings.

I’m just happy that we are getting to the point where we have quantity and quality in our farm system, which bodes very well for the future of the PBC.

by patthatt on Aug 10, 2009 11:11 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice job as usual Charlie.

by chodan11 on Aug 10, 2009 12:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Sano or Harper

Who would sit higher (foget relation to Alvarez)?

I’m just sayin’ . . . Bucs and Nats have had inverse fortunes of late, and the #1 overall is looking more and more like a possibility. I’m skeptical of Harper if for nothing else the hype, but his skill set sounds sick.

On another note, do you realize the Pirates’ career homerun leader is Doumit, followed by Milledge? That’s pretty depressing.

by chicos_pants on Aug 10, 2009 4:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Interesting list

All rankings are more for discussion purposes than anything, so prior to offering my take, I think it’s a fairly solid list, well thought out, and overall a nice job.

My initial look at the list is that … I think it’s very aggressive. Based upon Sickels model, and how the grades came out last year, this would put the Pirates organization as one of the best in the minors, and I’m not sure I feel that way about your system (for full clarity’s sake, I’m not a Pirates fan). I think your system is much improved, but I think it’s probably in the bottom half of systems (as an aside, I don’t think there’s a really strong system in the NL Central, the top 3 systems in some order would probably be the Cubs/Reds/Pirates as of now, and all three are in the bottom half of minor league systems).

Don’t have an issue with Alvarez’s A-. I’d probably go B+, but I can see A-, as his bat has been more consistent. Sanchez’s B+ seems very aggressive. We’re still talking small samples for a college bat in the lower levels. I think he was probably underappreciated coming out, but a B+? That seems very aggressive – placing him as a top 50 prospect in baseball? Top 100, I could that, but top 50?

I’ve also got a tough time buying Tabata as a top 50 prospect in baseball and a B+. The lack of power is an issue, and will it develop? I’m also not huge on Alderson as a B+. Now, Alderson may crack some top prospect lists, but he’s got a really low K rate, average fastball. If he develops, this is a mid-end of the rotation starter with good control. He may have some more physical maturation left, but how much? If he was “ready”, then maybe you could slap a B+ on him as a sign of that, but he’s not. I don’t have a problem with the order of the top 5, although I’d probably flip Lincoln/Alderson around, but I think it’s more one A- and 4 B’s. Still very good.

I don’t like Grossman as much as you do yet. He’s being propped up by a high BABIP this year, which helps since he hits so many ground balls. He’s an intriguing talent, but a B? I’d lean more towards a C+/B- upside nod. The Owens grade is aggressive, but I like that one. He’s performed, and IIRC the scouting report, a big, sturdy lefty with a low 90’s fastball and a plus breaker is very valuable. I imagine he may run into some roadblocks as he moves up, but he’s a solid mid-end of the rotation lefty prospect.

I’m fine with the Marte grade. I think Von Rosenberg is a bit high as a B-, but everyone grades recent signees differently. I think expecting Hernandez to develop power is probably unrealistic. It’s not his profile, and it’s not his swing. He’s a slap the ball, get on base, Juan Pierre type offensive player if he makes it. He K’s way too much for that profile, hence why I’d personally go with a C for him. I was a fan of Gorkys, and I liked the trade.

I like Lorin as a C+. Feel like he’s a tiny bit underappreciated. No feeling one way or another on Cain. I can buy a C+ for Morris, though I’m iffy on that one. I like the C+ for Chase D’Arnaud. I think Miller’s C+ is a bit nice right now.

I’m surprised at how far Brian Friday seems to have dropped in Pirates fans minds. I’d easily have him as a top 30 guy for your system, and it’s for positive reasons (that is, I’m not slamming the system by including Friday). A 0.265/0.364/0.398/0.762 line isn’t bad for a AA shortstop. His adjusted line (for park and luck) is a much more stout 0.287/0.383/0.432/0.815). Certainly, one should use caution when reading too much into statistics, as you still have to perform, but I haven’t heard any huge defensive concerns, and he feels like a guy who could probably be at least a Ryan Theriot-level starter, which carries value). In fact, considering he’s close to ready, I would be okay with a C+ grade for Friday.

by toonsterwu on Aug 16, 2009 1:56 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I should add

I didn’t realize Friday’s errors had grown so dramatically when I posted that last night. Admittedly, last time I checked on Friday’s defensive ability was awhile back. Even then, I’m still surprised he’s fallen so far. Those are decent/passable normal slash lines, and those are solid “adjusted” slash lines, and at worst, he could still be a Ryan Theriot level player, which isn’t bad at all.

Btw, this was more the Friday I expected out of Rice, solid enough bat for up the middle and a decent, inconsistent glove.

by toonsterwu on Aug 16, 2009 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about Pittsburgh Pirates.
Start posting about the Pirates »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
Conventional Wisdom
101_0170_small
40-Man Moves
18470r_small
Rule 5 possibilities
20080124sgrammy_330_small
Small Market Teams Pocketing Spare Change
Small
Jeebus Cracker
Small
McCutchen's defense
Small
Roberto calling
20090612mf_fleury_cup_500hp_small
Pirates would trade Doumit!
Leo4_small
John Sickels' Comments on Donnie Veal
Pitt20_small
LaRoche to the Phils?

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Mariners Eyeing Doumit
Tabata 5-5 w/3 Ribbies - Hitting .390 @ EOS
Bay rejects $60M over 4 years
"[Chase D'Arnaud] does everything well enough," said an American League...
Pirates hire Steve Williams as Major League scout
Jim Tracy, Baby! NL Manager of the Year!
2009 Minor League Six-Year Free Agent Listing
NL Rookie of the Year: Chris Coghlan
2010 CHONE Projections
2010 UZR Projections

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

SPONSORS


Managers

Charlie_small Charlie