Pirates Might Ditch Matt Capps

by Charlie Wilmoth on Sep 20, 2009 2:47 PM EDT

Neal Huntington says the Pirates might consider non-tendering Matt Capps:

"That's an awfully tough question to answer because I'm in a no-win situation by addressing it. Matt's shown the signs to be a major league closer, and we've seen it here and there. The blown saves aren't nearly as bad as the ERA and the hits per innings. But we don't see injury. We don't see a falloff in stuff. We see a guy we believe can have a bounce-back year if he does the right things this offseason."

Frankly, I've got better things to do than worry about whether the Pirates' reluctance to drop a few million bucks on Capps next year means they're being cheap, or whatever, because Capps has obviously been terrible this year. Still, I don't think non-tendering him should be a consideration. He'll be eligible for arbitration after next season, too, so by tendering Capps a contract, they'll be buying an entire extra year to see if he can get that old mojo back. A 26-year-old pitcher with "proven closer" status putting up the numbers Capps did in 2007 and 2008 would be very valuable on the trade market, in addition to helping the big-league club a great deal while he's still here. If 2010 proves to be 2009 all over again, well, so what? The 2010 payroll will be barrel-scrapingly low, and there will be little else to spend the money on. If Huntington really believes Capps can come back, then there shouldn't be much else to obsess over.

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I agree with you

and believe we might as well offer him a contract and see if he has a rebound season. However, I’m not expecting him to do much because he has such a terrible Hits/IP which I believe is the definitive test for a reliever. He’s simply not fooling enough hitters and I’m not comfortable with him as our closer. That being said, I still think we shoud make a modest offer and see what he can do next year.

by Illinois Pirate Fan on Sep 20, 2009 3:42 PM EDT reply actions

His H/IP is high...

…because the defense behind him has been horrible, to the tune of a .365 BABIP.

There are legitimate reasons for concern, but that isn’t one of them.

by Vlad on Sep 20, 2009 5:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Why is he the only one?

Serious question: The Pirates defense has been generally better this year, and even post-trade it’s not abysmal. If Duke and others have benefitted from good D, why is Capps getting victimized?

I do believe that pitchers who aren’t fooling anybody – like Capps now, like Duke of ‘06, ’07, and ’08 – generate higher BABIPs than what’s supposed to be normal. It’s only logical that a pitcher who’s basically throwing BP will generate a higher percentage of hits (I know that line drives captures some of this dynamic, but not all – ground balls that are hit hard enough make for much bigger holes between fielders).

by JRoth95 on Sep 20, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Good question...

You bring up a good point about hard hit ground balls. I don’t know of a stat that measures that but his line drive % is the lowest of his career so you would think that if he were giving up more hard hit ground balls that it migth be off set with the decrease in line drives. Hard to say for sure. We do have pitchers that have benefitted this year from improved defense. It is possible that luck does play a factor here. Maybe the defense has been worse with him on the mound. How do you explain why some pitchers receive more run support in a given year than others? May just be the luck of the draw. A factor of random variation. In any situation his walks and HR’s allowed have killed him.

by Slick1 on Sep 20, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Answer: He's not.

If you look at Pirate pitchers ranked by BABIP this year, you get numbers ranging from .218 (Burnett) to .420 (Ascanio). Seven pitchers, including Capps, above .330, and four under .260.

It’s mostly random variation. To the extent that it’s not, it’s a function of line drive rate (since LDs become hits more frequently than other types of BIP), but Capps’s LD% is 18.2: right at the median for the staff, and one of the better figures of his career. Ergo, in his case, it’s luck.

Defenders don’t aways provide a uniform quality of defense behind every pitcher on staff, for the same reason that hitters don’t put up the same stat line every month. There’s variation, and relievers are prone to catching more of that variation because their sample size is much smaller (and therefore any outlier events assume a greater prominence as a percentage of the total sample).

by Vlad on Sep 21, 2009 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Probably also worth mentioning

Unlike our starters/middle inning guys, Capps is never going to pitch to another pitcher/No. 9 batter, and probably not to a stiff at No. 8 if there’s anybody on the bench who’s better. He also never gets to pitch against the Pirates. ;-)

by bucdaddy on Sep 21, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Not sure what "BABIP" is but

the games I’ve seen where the Mad Capper gets hit, he gets hit well and truly. These are not squibs barely out-of-the-reach of lead-footed infielders we’re talking about. These hits are manly, well-struck hits that leave the infield like a laser shooting through huge gaps in the sub-atomic field. (Note: I have no idea if that analogy makes sense. I’m fishing here.) Actually, the way that I’m at least familiar with is these hits are like Russian tank columns, circa 1943, driving full-speed ahead through huge gaps in the so-called German lines.

The hits/IP might have more to do w/a slower, flatter fastball and no plans other than “throw the fastball again” more than whose behind him. Didn’t some of those blown saves happen w/St. Jack Flash and San Freddy de la Sanchez behind him?

by Trogluddite on Sep 20, 2009 8:43 PM EDT reply actions

Actually...

his line drive % and fly ball % are both down from last season and he is throwing harder than he ever has, though he is throwing less fastballs overall. The problem is his walks/9 are way up (2.86/9) and his HR/FB % is way up. It’s been a really weird year for Capps. His K/9 is the highest of his career but he’s giving up 1.79 HR per 9. BABIP is batting average on balls in play. The average BABIP sits around .290 so Capps has either been really unlucky or suffered from poor defense. It’s probably been a combo of both. The walks and HR’s are definitely part of Capps struggles but his numbers shouldn’t be quite as bad as they are all things considered. I would say there is some reason to expect him to have a bounce back season if he gets his control problems under control.

by Slick1 on Sep 20, 2009 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Exactly.

If the BABIP and HR/FB regress to league average rates, Capps’s ERA drops into the mid/low 4s without any additional improvement on his part.

That’s only an average reliever, though. For him to be the reliever that he was in past seasons, he needs to fix the problem with his walk rate, and depending on what’s causing it, that may or may not be achievable.

The huge spike in his walk rate is really weird, in that he isn’t actually throwing more balls than he did before. 66.8% of his pitches last year were strikes, compared to 67.5% in 2008 and 71.6% in 2007. With a spike in both Ks and BBs, he might just be going deeper into counts on hitters, but even so, you’d expect the Ks to bounce more than the BBs in that scenario. I can’t explain it.

by Vlad on Sep 21, 2009 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions

O.K.

“Capps has either been really unlucky or suffered from poor defense.”

He had a pretty good defense behind him for the better part of the season.

His HR/BB numbers are way up because of his lingering control issues, which are not new to this season. His weight/conditioning problem needs to be taken into account, too.

Why should we believe his control issues from the past two years will be resolved any more than his weight problem will?

So he’s giving up fewer line drives/fly balls this year, but more are getting hammered over the fence.

So the average BABIP says he could very well be better next year.

I’m encouraged. Yeah, right.

Spend more time watching the player perform to formulate opinions on his future prospects, instead of burying your head in the numbers in an effort to determine it with some sort of mathematical precision.

I hope Capps rebounds in 2010, but I doubt it, especially with what will probably be a full season with more defensively-challenged players(with the notable exception of Cutch) behind him.

by patthatt on Sep 21, 2009 8:14 AM EDT reply actions

I agree with everything you said

especially the part about watching the player perform rather than using stats as the be all end all. Stats are exceedingly useful but they don’t tell the whole story.

The few times I’ve seen Capps pitch, I’ve seen a fastball with no movement at all, which you can get away with if you’re throwing 96-98, but he isn’t.

I guess what I’m wondering is why NH felt the need to go public with this.

by mocasdad on Sep 21, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions

If he's overthrowing...

…that’d explain the bounce in velocity and a flattening of the fastball, but it’s odd that it wouldn’t show up in the LD% or the ratio of strikes/balls (assuming it was affecting his release point, and therefore his command).

by Vlad on Sep 21, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't recall...

Capps ever having a fastball that wasn’t flat. He’s always been a command and control guy with 93-94 mph straight fastball. He still has the fastball but the command and control have deserted him. I’d like to know how many of his HR’s came off of fastballs vs the slider and change. It’s quite possible that the injury he had last year has taken away the ability to command his pitches like he has in the past. Hopefully not but there has to be some reason why a guy goes from a terrific control pitcher to what he is now.

by Slick1 on Sep 21, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions

He had a pretty good defense behind him...

…for half of the year, and a pretty bad one behind him for the rest. Moving from Moss to Jones in RF was probably a 20-run drop in defensive quality, optimistically projecting Cedeno as an average defender still makes him a double-digit drop from Jack, Doumit is at least a rung below Jaramillo, and Young is probably the worst defensive 2B in the league (it’s a pick-em with him or Belliard).

His HR numbers are up because his HR/FB is way up. That’s a number that almost always regresses to around 10% – it’s 14.3% for him this year, after being under 7% in the prior two seasons. So he’s not as bad there as he looks now, and not as good there as he looked last year or the year before.

I’ve watched Capps plenty this year, but observational evidence over a handful of games is probably the LEAST reliable forcasting method there is.

by Vlad on Sep 21, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions

No, the Pirates don’t have the luxury non-tendering him given our other bullpen options and given his tract record. That’s absolutely ridiculous to suggest.

by Adam Reynolds on Sep 21, 2009 1:31 PM EDT reply actions

pathetic team

Any team that is purposely keeping a major league hitter like Jeff Clement off of their roster to “save” money because of service time deserves to have losing seasons for the next decade. I didn’t realize that Steve Pearce is an all-star and untouchable.

Josh Normand

by Jmnor8 on Sep 21, 2009 3:19 PM EDT reply actions

Two things:

1) Clement is on the 40-man roster.
2) Clement wasn’t called up after the roster expansion because he’s INJURED, i.e. out with a strained oblique. If he hadn’t been hurt, they would’ve promoted him.

Never let the truth get in the way of a gripe, I guess.

by Vlad on Sep 21, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe we missed...

where Clement has shown he’s a major league hitter?? Career major league numbers in 243 plate appearances… .237/.309/.393 for an OPS of .701. He has 18 BB and 66 strikeouts in those 243 plate appearances.

Pearce… .241/.301/.395 for an OPS of .696. In 355 plate appearances he has 26 BB and 74 strikeouts.

So where has Clement shown he’s any more deserving? And at least Pearce can play 1B defensively. Pearce may be playing himself off the roster…but Clement hasn’t shown that there is any reason he should be there ahead of Pearce.

by Thunder on Sep 21, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I would at least like to see if his bat will play better at PNC.

Other than that I agree with what you’re saying.

by Slick1 on Sep 21, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Won't argue that point...

but Clement hasn’t EARNED anything yet. Those that had problems with Pearce and Moss playing…should have problems with Clement playing.

by Thunder on Sep 21, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I think his minor league performance...

…means that he’s “earned” a look.

You’re right about him not having a hugely better pedigree than Pearce or Moss, though.

by Vlad on Sep 22, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions

A look...yes...

a position…no.

Problem is…most of the guys that get brought up to get a look at…only get blinked at…instead of looked at or studied. For instance…had LaRoche not gotten sick…Walker probably would have finished the season with about 25 at bats. Bixler would have seen about 3 AB all of September had Young’s back not gotten cranky. I’m not saying they deserved more at bats…just that if the starting 8 (or 9 if you count the Moss/Pearce/Jones triumvirate for RF/1B)…were ALL healthy right now…not much of anyone else would be playing.

Had Clement been healthy…he’d be taking AB away from Moss (as Pearce would play ahead of Moss and Clement against some or most LHP)…as when a RHP goes…Moss and Jones have been the RF/1B recently.

by Thunder on Sep 23, 2009 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Like you, I'm fine with those guys getting a "blink".

On merit of minor league performance, Walker and Bixler haven’t earned any ML PT at all this year. They were brought up more to give Russell extra bench options than to show that they were capable of holding a ML job (since, in all likelihood, they aren’t).

by Vlad on Sep 23, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions