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Around SBN: Post-UNC Thoughts

Pirates May Pursue John Grabow, Rick Ankiel in Free Agency

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More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

The Post-Gazette reports that the Pirates could pursue a number of "familiar faces" this offseason, the most likely of these being John Grabow, who would be the sort of reliable lefty that who could be useful for the Bucs. One thing to keep in mind here is Grabow's free agency status; Elias, who does the rankings that determine compensatory picks, could make Grabow a Class A free agent, which essentially means that the Bucs would have to give up their second-round pick if they signed him after the Cubs took him to arbitration. The Pirates don't have any business giving up their second-round pick at this point, so if Grabow is a Type A, I can't imagine the Pirates would sign him. A Tigers blogger reverse-engineered the Elias formula and found a couple months ago that Grabow was on track to be a Type A, and he's pitched well since then. For that reason, I think he probably won't end up back with the Bucs. 

(If you're curious about why the Bucs would trade Grabow if he were on track to be a Type A, by the way, consider that teams are valuing draft choices more and more highly, and might not sign Grabow at all if it means giving up a second- or first-round pick. The likely outcome in that scenario might be Grabow accepting an arbitration offer from the Pirates, and their trying to trade him again next year. In fact, if he does turn out to be a Type A, the Cubs offering arbitration and Grabow accepting are pretty strong possibilities.)

The P-G also reports that the Bucs could have interest in Jack Wilson or Freddy Sanchez. Sanchez would seem to be the more likely of the two, given that Ronny Cedeno has done a pretty fair Wilson impression in Jack's absence. I'd be surprised to see Sanchez return if his best friend Wilson doesn't come back, though; I was watching the Giants play the other day and saw Sanchez leaning over the dugout railing wildly cheering on his teammates. That might not mean anything, but when you see something like that it's hard not to wonder about Sanchez's willingness to play for a team that assuredly won't be in playoff contention next year.

Rick Ankiel is, to me, the most interesting player in the article--he'd be a good fit in left field for the Bucs, since he's a very good defensive outfielder, and he's coming off a very poor season, so he might be in the Pirates' price range. It's possible to see him rebound a bit, hit 20 or so homers, and be the sort of player a lot of people think Nate McLouth was--a slightly-above-average hitter who plays good defense. Unfortunately, he's represented by Scott Boras, who's tough to work with, and he's 30 and controls the strike zone very poorly. He'd be a gamble, and given his agent, he might not be a gamble worth taking.

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I wouldn't mind seeing Freddy Sanchez

and Rick Ankiel in Bucco uniforms next year.

Both players would really improve our lineup-both offensively and defensively-over the current cast of characters like Delwyn Young and Lastings Milledge.

I’m not against Young, Milledge, and Brandon Moss getting their share of OF time, but Ankiel would be a nice addition, if he can stay healthy. Ankiel would also be able to get a dozen or so starts for Cutch in center over the long season.

And it goes without saying that we need a real 2B player for 2010.

by patthatt on Sep 21, 2009 2:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What, exactly, is wrong with Milledge?

He’s not crushing the ball yet, but he’s hitting for a solid average with the Bucs. Guess I don’t see how he fits in with under-achieving (and sparsely used) Brandon Moss and (the likely worn out from all the defensive reps) Delwyn Young.

by Yotum on Sep 21, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can’t see what’s wrong with Milledge either, you know besides the reputation he can’t shake no matter what he does.

by PensFan024 on Sep 21, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't get it

Milledge has been a model citizen, has spoken very well of the team and readily admitted past faults. He’s also played well defensively, which UZR (although it’s a weeny sample size) confirms.

by WTM on Sep 21, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But he likes rap music!

And fancy shoes! And he had sex with high school girls when he was in high school!

by Vlad on Sep 21, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So what you're saying

is that we should envy him.

by JRoth95 on Sep 21, 2009 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He makes a helluva lot more money than I do.

And he’s younger.

Though I’m not much of a fan of the rap, outside of the Beasties & P.E. & NWA, for the most part…

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 21, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That’s what I was trying to say WTM. He has been, as you say, a model citizen but his reputation still haunts him.

by PensFan024 on Sep 24, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yotum

What’s wrong with Milledge is what we’re seeing in the game tonight: no production from a guy who wants to be a regular at a corner OF spot.

As I said above, I have no problem with Milledge getting another good shot in the Pirates’ OF next year, but adding someone like Rick Ankiel to the Milledge/Moss/Young mix would give us a boost.

by patthatt on Sep 21, 2009 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hang on.

Didn’t LM go 3-4 the other day?

by BlindSquirrel on Sep 21, 2009 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know he's hit for a good average

so far with the Bucs-but I’m also saying he hasn’t produced runs playing a run-producing position.

It just hasn’t been there through his first 45 games with the Bucs.

If he’s going to play LF every day in 2010, we need to see more power/run production.

Steve Blass was saying the same thing again tonight.

by patthatt on Sep 21, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Would not that also apply at 3B??

That is certainly considered a run-producing position…and we aren’t getting it from there…either.

by Thunder on Sep 21, 2009 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thunder

Agreed: Andy LaRoche’s days as the everyday 3B will be short next year without a significant improvement in production at the plate.

And it won’t make any difference if Pedro Alvarez sticks at third and is called up at mid-season.

by patthatt on Sep 22, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Would there be anything precluding Milledge from moving to RF, and making Moss a regular 4th OF, other than it possibly meaning Tabata spends all of 2010 in AAA (which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, IMHO)?

by biggyv on Sep 21, 2009 3:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I’m also confused on what part of the .774 OPS/.351 wOBA in AA and .744/.331 in AAA indicate that we should rush Tabata to the majors? He would probably hit worse than Moss in the MLB next year.

You’d think he had a Matt Wieters 2008 the way some want to pencil him in the big league lineup next year.

by Adam Reynolds on Sep 21, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This year has certainly been encouraging though

His .357 OBP is nice to see, and the power will come, but he’s 21. I think people tend to want to rush him because he’s been heard about for some time now (as tends to be the case with Yankees prospects).

by biggyv on Sep 21, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As for Ankiel

It would be an interesting gamble, but I’m having a tough time trying to figure out what his market value might be. Between what figures to be a depressed FA market due to economic concerns, and his dropoff in production this year, could he be had on the cheap, or will enough teams look at his 07-08 numbers that he’d still be pricey?

I also wonder about the length of any deal he might pursue. It’s possible he’ll want a short-term deal with the hopes of returning to form next year and increasing his value. If that’s the case, is it worth it for a club that won’t be in a position to contend for the next year or two to sign him?

by biggyv on Sep 21, 2009 3:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Also

We’ve got a bit of a logjam coming up in OF assuming Gorkys and Tabata are just around the corner especially by the time we’re ready to compete.

by BlindSquirrel on Sep 21, 2009 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

seems like

Gorky’s is more than 1 corner away from even AAA…

by GeneClines on Sep 21, 2009 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I also agree that Milledge is a much more interesting case than Young or even Moss, because Milledge has a much more potential of becoming a good everyday player.

by Adam Reynolds on Sep 21, 2009 3:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The other angle on Ankiel is that, if they sign him, either Jones or Jeff Clement won’t be playing everyday for the Bucs next year. Would Clement be the odd man out again? Has the Pirates front office soured on him for 2010? You wonder if he is in the long-term plan now.

by Adam Reynolds on Sep 21, 2009 4:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think Clement is insurance against GJones turning into a pumpkin. Between the two of them, you probably get at least a win or two above replacement even if neither breaks out. If Jones continues his 2009, then Clement is a nice throw-in in a trade – a useful body for a team with a shaky/injured 1B.

by JRoth95 on Sep 21, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe I've missed...

where Clement has proven that he’s a useful part at the major league level?? Did I miss some major league success that he’s had that Pearce hasn’t?? Announcing right now that Clement will be the starting first baseman for the Pirates next year would be the ultimate in scholarship.

by Thunder on Sep 21, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, the ultimate in scholarship is to continue to guarantee LaRoche a starting job.

But as to the main point here, handing a job to Clement wouldn’t make sense. Having multiple options never hurt anybody. It’s sticking with somebody after he’s failed, or when he’s blocking better options, that hurts.

by WTM on Sep 21, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And the Pirates seem to be happy...

with sticking with people after they fail. At least when they trade for them.

Even I will admit that Pearce is playing himself off the roster. As well as Bixler and about half of the bullpen. Moss may save his job…barely.

LaRoche should not be guaranteed anything right now at 2B or 3B. Nor should Young. Clement hasn’t even earned a spot on the 25 man roster yet…let alone a starting position. Only position players that have earned spots for next year are Jones, Cutch, Milledge, Doumit, Cedeno, JJ, and possibly 1 that I may have missed somewhere. Pitchers safe would be Meek, Chavez, Duke, Ohlie, Maholm…and I’m sure I’m missing one or two…but not much more than that.

by Thunder on Sep 21, 2009 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You’re just discriminating against Pearce and Bixler because they were DL draftees.

by WTM on Sep 21, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thunder

hates everybody. Equally.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 21, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Obviously...you haven't been paying attention...Wilbur.

Up until the last 2 weeks or so…I was one of the biggest Pearce proponents around here. I was actually one of the main ones indicating that a few DL draftees were getting screwed…at the expense of non-producers acquired by NH/FC.

by Thunder on Sep 21, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think

WTN was using the sarcasm there….

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 21, 2009 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Possible...

I’m at work…so my detector is turned off.

by Thunder on Sep 21, 2009 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i discriminate against them because they STINK!

by theatrain on Sep 23, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree in that...

…Freddy would be a nice sign, but does anyone know what his feelings were when he departed Pittsburgh? Seemed like there was a bit of anymosity to me. If not, I doubt more than a handful of teams are going to be banging his door down. He’s certainly a safer option of Delwyn, but that will block any possiblity of Andy moving to second.

Ankiel could be a great signing for LF. I would sign him to a 2 year deal. He’s making about 2.8 million I think I read in Dejan’s article today. Would it really be that big of a gamble to offer this guy 2 year contract worth 10 million, maybe add a club option for a third year on top of it. This is the type of signing that will prove to either be a complete waste of money or help completely turn an organization like the Pirates around. In my opinion, signing guys coming off “off years” or injuries are the only type of impact we will be able to make in free agency with the market we play in.

As far as Milledge, his defense has improved over his notorious reputation. With that said, he’s not the defender Ankiel is and would probably best be served in RF. Let Jones – Pearce – Clement battle it out in Spring Training for the 1B job and go with the best guy. Moss becomes the permanent 4th outfielder, which isn’t nearly what we hoped or expected when he came over for Bay, but can be useful going forward.

I think the article was a really positive sign for the team going into the future. Although misspending and signing the wrong guys is never the right path, it’s encouraging to see the Pirates not completely ignoring the FA market.

by jlk9697 on Sep 21, 2009 4:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

RE: Freddy

DK is adamant that Freddy would be open to returning. I assume, from DK’s tone, that he has confirmed this directly, albeit off the record.

by JRoth95 on Sep 21, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If 2/10 is viable for Ankiel

That would be a nice flier to take. It fits Huntington’s buy-low strategy. Again, I don’t know if he could be signed for that.

by biggyv on Sep 21, 2009 4:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ankiel/Jones/Pearce

I don’t have the stats in front of me, but the last time I looked, IIRC, Pearce actually has a pretty respectable OPS against lefties, but is pathetic against righties. Jones, despite a few dramatic HRs against lefties, is the reverse: awesome against righties, below average against lefties. Both play a decent first base; both are adventures in right field.
   
Unless I’m missing something, it seems like it would the most natural thing in the world for them to platoon next year at first base, the only hold up being that they have to replace Jones in the outfield (sadly, I don’t think Moss is the answer). If they think Tabata is really ready, fine, but if not, and they could get him a not too exorbitant price, Ankiel filling in for a year in the OF w/ Cutch and Milledge seems like a viable idea.

by brooklynpirate on Sep 21, 2009 4:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nobody else concerned about Ankiel's alleged use of PED's?

My worry is that Ankiel’s career as an impact player maybe finished due to more stringent testing – and I’m not on a moralistic crusade against HGH. His career stats for both pitching and hitting have produced spectacular power driven highs followed by very barren spells.

Have there been periods when Ankiel has been juiced and others when he’s not juiced?

I would happily see the Bucs give a spring try out for minimum salary, but talk of 2 years at $10m seems crazy to me.

by RDV across the sea on Sep 21, 2009 5:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, if we don’t sign anybody who may have used PEDs, that rules out everybody over about 27.

by WTM on Sep 21, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Isn't it the job of a good GM in the post-steroid era to figure which players numbers were hugely inflated?

I don’t want to start a(nother) steroids discussion, but surely Ankiel’s dramatic decline in power counts for something.

by RDV across the sea on Sep 21, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought he’d had some nagging injury problems, but maybe I’ve got that wrong.

by WTM on Sep 21, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He screwed up his shoulder in the collision.

And he’s had some late-season DL time from another issue as well (oblique, maybe?).

by Vlad on Sep 21, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

HGH doesn't bother me...

…insofar as there’s no demonstrated benefit from using HGH. It wasn’t changing his performance, and since I don’t think it’s even particularly immoral to have used drugs before they were formally banned by MLB, I don’t give a shit.

If he were a known steroid user, I might care insofar as it’d throw his future projection out of whack.

by Vlad on Sep 21, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not so much.

It’d just make him harder to predict, and thus harder to value properly on the market.

by Vlad on Sep 22, 2009 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

just a joke

“I don’t mind Bonds stealing the HR title from Aaron, but he’s totally screwed up age projections, that bastard!”

by JRoth95 on Sep 22, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

IIRC...

his use was during the time (2004) when he was rehabbing his elbow (TJ surgery in late 2003) injuries…BEFORE he became a full time hitter (minor league 2005 season). He also tore up his knee in 2006, missing almost the entire season. He was a AAA All Star in 2007…and was in the majors for less than a month when the HGH story hit. His big year…2008…was AFTER the HGH story came out…not before.

by Thunder on Sep 21, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

On Milledge

BTW, I paid attention to him when he was a prospect because I’m a Mets fan by birth, and I never really got the hate. Part of it is that I’m inclined to give strangers the benefit of the doubt, part of it is that some of the stuff (“Know your place, Rook”) struck me as asshole veterans, and part of it was a really charming article about his dad, the retired cop (IIRC) who bought an RV so he could follow Lastings around the MiL circuit. That left me with a reserve of warmth towards the guy.

It seems pretty clear, from comments in today’s game piece among other things, that he got a swelled head at some point and didn’t think he had to work hard, but even so, I never really believed he was an asshole – just a guy who was maybe overrated as a prospect and probably read his own clippings. If he can continue this rebirth – and playing alongside Mr. Young Professional can’t but help – I’ll be happy to have him for 3+ more years.

by JRoth95 on Sep 21, 2009 6:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah...

I got the impression that the former Mets closer that recently got traded was one of those veterans. And that former closer had made some enemies of other younger Mets talents (like Reyes).

by Thunder on Sep 22, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Catching Question

I think that Diaz is on the no more options list. So what do the Pirates do with him? He strikes me as a guy who’s valuable to the organization, and who could never clear waivers, but who would never net you anything in trade. Doumit’s injury history suggests that JJ alone is inadequate as a backup, which adds another level.

Any thoughts?

by JRoth95 on Sep 21, 2009 6:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Depends on...

the Pirates assessment of his abilities to play other positions. If Diaz and JJ are not capable of playing another position at the major league level…someone will have to go. I don’t see the Pirates keeping 3 catchers that cannot/will not play other positions.

by Thunder on Sep 21, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is JJ out of options too?

If not, it might make sense for him to start next season at Indy and provide the depth at C. Or is Z a clear step down from JJ?

by WestCoastBuc on Sep 21, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No

I think he has two left.

by WTM on Sep 21, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

IMO Z is a clear step down right now, but I don’t think you can really show that he’s a definitive step down in overall talent level – in 2 more years Diaz could be an adequate defensive catcher who can OPS .800 in a limited role. I don’t think JJ would be more valuable than that.

Thing is, you really only need the 3rd catcher if Doumit goes down, in which case JJ comes up thanks to the DL – no problem. Granted that Diaz could use the reps more than playing once a week, but that’s what you’re stuck with (unless I’m wrong on options). I think it would be crazy to let him walk for nothing.

by JRoth95 on Sep 21, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

BTW

As long as I’m using this thread to blather on:

It’s a shame that the PBC Blog went to shit. When it first went live, it was interesting enough, and coalesced quickly as a community. It was never as stat-centric as this place is, but it started out OK, with reasonably logical arguments. A big part of it going to hell was bad ol’ NH, but I also think that the signal-noise ration went lower and lower (as it usually does for well-trafficked blogs).

Anyway, no real point here. I was just over there checking on the pregame updates, and scanning the first couple comments (I follow the blog almost exclusively through RSS, so I never see comments at all) reminded me that it was a decent place for a couple months there.

by JRoth95 on Sep 21, 2009 6:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

agreed.

The first 6-8 months were just fine.

Then, ker-blooie.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 21, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Any blog...

…where the single biggest concern is too many grey men is a bad blog! lol

by Brakeman8 on Sep 21, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The downfall...

was about 10 posters deciding that the PBC Blog was THEIR playground…and everyone else was to be shouted down.

by Thunder on Sep 21, 2009 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

One problem is that they have this stupid idea that you have to post everything in whatever is the most recent thread, instead of posting stuff that’s relevant to the post by Dejan that started the thread. Since there’s no notion of staying on topic, and since there’s never more than one active thread, you can’t discuss anything without getting the same old Nutting-is-cheap screaming. If it wasn’t for that, there might be some chance of having an actual discussion while NutHo and the other trolls were prattling away in some other thread.

by WTM on Sep 22, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Which is where most got lost.

People decided that their views would not get seen if they weren’t in the most recent entry. Too many people posting JUST to be seen…instead of actually contributing. My post frequency has gone way down over there…just as yours has.

by Thunder on Sep 22, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep...

and any positions I take over there are generally beaten down pretty quickly. Such as the Jones/LaRoche comparison last night. Funnily…I didn’t take a side on that…but threw it out for discussion. But…I’ve got pretty thick skin.

Was just thunder for a long time there but there was another poster…Thundercrack…and just too much confusion between the two. During a game…if I am in a thread at all anywhere…it’s usually here.

by Thunder on Sep 23, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah that's why I asked.

I saw your post on Jones and was wondering if that was you. That and the one on the Jones Laroche splits. And I do agree with your assessment, Jack Asses on both sides but the NutHo thugs seem to be the worst.

by Slick1 on Sep 23, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good point

I would be following/participating in an argument, then suddenly everyone would be gone.

A big part of the problem is not enough threads – at most 3-4/day (except trade times, of course). Unless you have a smaller and/or more disciplined community, that just turns into a mess. If there were 5-6 threads/day, people wouldn’t be in such a hurry to get to the next one (the slowness of the site’s a factor there, as well). Not that I think DK should do more – he’s got enough on his plate – but it’s a structural issue.

Hmm. Were things a little better when he was doing 3-4 Q&As per day? I don’t recall when the switch happened relative to the comment sections going to shit. But it strikes me that that would help let off some of the steam.

Anyway. It’ll be interesting to see what happens in the Buccosphere if/when they get good. WHYGAVS hardly gets any comments at all right now, and game threads here are half-dead, but there’ll be a huge influx someday. I wonder how much will end up at established sites and how much will go to new site. I can’t imagine a lot of patience around here for clueless bandwagon types, but you know they’ll show up.

by JRoth95 on Sep 22, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

One funny thing — NutHo seems to be attacking Dejan pretty regularly, or at least he’s done it in about every thread I’ve looked at lately. I guess Dejan has warned him and removed some of his posts that called people names or whatever. I get the impression Dejan realizes the harm NutHo is doing to his blog.

by WTM on Sep 22, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Only problem being...

that some of the pro front office people on the PBC blog are just as damaging. Yeah…NuHo got a bunch of posts nuked yesterday…but some of the others are just as bad.

For instance…I made a post early this morning about how little impact 20 HR’s from Jones has made on the Pirates ability to win. The “Legend” stuff is a little bit overboard. He pounds RHP when no one is on base…and struggles the rest of the time…which his numbers back up. (No one bothers to notice that he’s hitting .209 against LHP with 3 walks in 95 PA)

Of course…I was called a moron…which doesn’t bother me in the least anyway.

Just to show that NuHo does have a little bit of baseball knowledge…he did find a striking comparable to Garrett Jones…Kevin Maas. Biggest difference is about 30 points in BA his rookie year. Amazingly similar splits vs LHP…and with runners on…and similar amount of playing time.

by Thunder on Sep 22, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Platoon splits are predictive for LHB.

I wouldn’t mind seeing him get more reps against lefties for the rest of the year, though, to make sure the sample’s large enough for an accurate determination of his true level of talent vs. LHB. If needed, he could be platooned with Pearce/Moss in 2010.

I don’t see Maas as all that good a comp for Jones. Maas was 25 during his breakout, not 28, and he had a significantly stronger minor league track record with the bat. In particular, he had significanlty more plate discipline than Jones throughout his minor league career (three OBPs of .390+ in five minor league seasons, and a .353 in the pitcher-friendly FSL as his lowest figure). They’re somewhat similar visually: lefty bats, lefty arms, 1B/OF, close on height and weight, fairly athletic. But the skill profiles and age curves are totally different, and those are more helpful from a predictive standpoint.

by Vlad on Sep 22, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That being the case...

if Maas had a strong track record…one could say that if Jones followed the same track…he’d fall off a tall building next year. And yes, Vlad…I know that’s a ridiculous extrapolation.

If Maas could fall off a cliff that easily…why do people have such a hard time imagining Jones doing it??

by Thunder on Sep 22, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just because some here don't take it as a given

that Jones will be bad next year, doesn’t mean that they think there is little or no chance of it happening.

by WestCoastBuc on Sep 22, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maas may not be a GREAT comp for Jones...

but there aren’t too many that ARE. Maybe Ryan Ludwick…but can’t think of too many others.

by Thunder on Sep 23, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We've gone through this one before...

they aren’t a lot of good comps at all. You’re going to get Ludwick shot down too. I’ve seen Vlad discredit this one as well because Ludwick’s minor leagure numbers were much better. There was one player who was in the ball park, maybe Ibanez, don’t remember. Just not a lot of 28 tr old rookies with average minor league #s who come up and perform like he has. It would be nice to think that he, or the coaching staff, figured something out, as unlikely as that might be.

by Slick1 on Sep 23, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right, but...

Given that, apparently, no one has done what he’s done so far, I’m not sure you get very far by presuming that he will follow any established pattern. I mean he’ll regress, sure, and he’ll start to decline from whatever his “true” level is between now and age 31, but that’s about all you can predict. He’s already shown himself to be more or less sui generis.

That’s one of the reasons that all the ultra-confident dismissals of him ca. late July were so maddening – they were predicated on him following a path that he was plainly not on*. Who knows what his path is or how he got on it, but when the standard tools don’t allow for a situation that is plainly occurring, you need to reconsider the tools, not keep using them and insisting that “this isn’t happening!”

BTW, who’s been posting as “Vlad” since Monday night? It’s a nice memorial to a commenter who was appreciated in life, and will be missed in death.

  • Same deal with MyjMo, incidentally – remind me again of the many hockey-playing speedsters who basically start playing baseball in their late teens and established the patterns that everyone was so sure he’d follow?

by JRoth95 on Sep 23, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's strange.

I expected to wake up dead, but didn’t. Maybe God’s just really busy right now.

Even if we were able to find a player who had a career path comparable to Jones’s (and there probably is one from some point in baseball history – none of the players suggested have been from more than 10-15 years ago, so there’s a selection bias in our collective memory), that doesn’t really suggest anything about the path Jones’s career will take from here on out.

I am, shall we say, skeptical that the hockey playing had any material effect on the course of Nyjer’s career.

by Vlad on Sep 24, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's probably also worth recognizing...

…the selection bias inherent in finding Jones comps. Most players who hit the way he did in the minors are selling cars or painting houses by the time they’re 28, pushed out by younger and better players, so they don’t have the chance to have unexpected breakouts.

by Vlad on Sep 24, 2009 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ankiel

At the right price would be a nice pick up. He could provide some much needed punch and would give us a very good defensive outfield with Cuth and Milledge (and possibly a very productive one as well). It would make Moss a fourth OF which is probably what he is. That would also send Jones to 1B where he could sit vs LHP and let Pearce play. Both can also play OF giving us some flexibility. I wouldn’t mind Freddy back at 2B if he can stay healthy….but that is a big IF. I certainly wouldn’t pay him anything more than what we offered him before the trade. That would make Young a nice utility player and PH off the bench.

I agree that if Grabow becomes a Type A FA we should pass, but if he winds up not costing us a draft pick then I would be OK with having him back as well. I do think that finding a very good LH reliever is priority number one this off season. We have to fix our bullpen.

by Brakeman8 on Sep 21, 2009 7:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well

Bringing back Sanchez, Wilson, signing Ankiel, seems very much to be a retread of this year. We all know where that leads.

Let’s stick to the plan, save the 10 plus million to watch a re-run. Let’s give Edge at least till next July. Same with Jones in right. Look at a Pearce/Clem platoon for a couple month’s. See if Young can hit again, if not…move LaRoche over, Maybe Pedro will be ready to move up at that point. Put the 10 mill in an account to make up for a lost year of control over Alverez.

by GeneClines on Sep 21, 2009 9:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Also, Sanchez was hurt again last night

He had to be helped off the field with a knee injury.

by WestCoastBuc on Sep 22, 2009 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He apparently got hurt watching a Mark Reynolds HR.

by WTM on Sep 22, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

On the MLB side...

they indicated that Sanchez may have twisted his knee on a relay throw from the outfield the batter before the HR…and the pain didn’t subside…so he got pulled after the HR.

by Thunder on Sep 22, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've heard of pitchers getting whiplash...

…from watching HRs go over their heads, but that’s a new one on me.

by Vlad on Sep 22, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i agree with you...

why do we need Ankiel or Freddy back? not like were going to win next year…. just stick to the plan..if they should throw any money at all to anyone it should be AROLDIS CHAPMAN… which Huntington already said if he is cleared to be a free agent the pirates will be among the bidders… a LHP 21 yrs old with a fastball that got clocked at 102 mph in the World Baseball Classic is definitely a player that we should give some money too… instead of a Ankiel’s or the Sanchez’s

by BigB23 on Sep 22, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree too

Spending $10 million or so on Sanchez and Ankiel would remind me a lot of Littlefield’s Burnitz/Randa signings. I’d much rather see them invest in young talent.

by WestCoastBuc on Sep 22, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

Signing back Sanchez or signing Ankiel seems to me like a move to shut up the press more than anything. I’d rather Huntington stick with his guns than become a slave to the words of Ron Cook, the dumbest man on the planet.

by ryebr3ad on Sep 22, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No more Freddy Sanchez. He’s extremely overrated. Poor strike zone judgment and little power. Look, Young isn’t doing much worse, at least with the bat, than the past 2 years of Steady Freddy.

I’m undecided on Ankiel, though. I guess It wouldn’t be bad to play him hoping for a first-half breakout so they could trade him at the deadline for young talent.

by Adam Reynolds on Sep 22, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There’s also the little problem of Freddy being hurt a lot, a problem that seems to be growing.

by WTM on Sep 22, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Health is a skill, as well.

by Adam Reynolds on Sep 22, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't sign a free agent...

just so that the Pirates could hope he has a hot first half and trade him for young talent. In most cases…that is not going to be a wise return on investment.

by Thunder on Sep 22, 2009 4:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.

I’m OK with signing a FA who makes it possible to trade young talent for something else we need, though. Such as young talent at a different position.

by Vlad on Sep 22, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That part...

I agree with. I just don’t agree with signing a FA JUST so we can trade that same player 6 months later. That assumes the FA will have a good 1st half…a dangerous assumption…unless your name is Albert Pujols.

by Thunder on Sep 22, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why are assumptions made by Albert Pujols

better than those of others?

Also, I don’t see why it is any more dangerous to sign a FA with the idea of trading him for young talent if he plays well, than it is to sign him in the hopes that he will help your team win. To me it makes sense to sign a guy with the idea of possibly trading him if later circumstances warrant such action.

Or is there some kind of negative stigma attached to trading recently signed FAs that will impact the team later?

by WestCoastBuc on Sep 22, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pujols has been consistently good his whole career.

You don’t sign your free agents with the idea of trading them 6 months later for young talent for one reason. That scenario requires that the player(s) perform much better than the talent level previously performed at. Otherwise…the Pirates very likely would not have been able to sign him in the first place (unless they signficantly overpay). And the other teams are not going to give up young talent for someone who is not performing.

Ankiel…for example…assuming the Pirates sign him. If he performs at his 2008 level in 2010…you get a decent return if you trade him. If he performs at his 2009 level…he’s a sunk cost. Is the chance of 2009 stats higher or lower than the 2008 stats? That is the assessment the Pirates management would have to take with any free agent they sign…especially if they do it with the express intent of turning him around in 6 months…instead of filling a hole. Are you going to pay someone…say $5M a season…to get one or two A ball players?? Hopefully not.

by Thunder on Sep 22, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It was a grammar joke, Thunder

That said, given what I’ve seen, I’m going to assume that Pujols makes better assumptions, souffles, macrame, and love than anyone else.

by JRoth95 on Sep 23, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You shouldn’t sign a free agent JUST to trade them. You sign him in order to field an acceptable team. But it’s certainly a good side effect if the team buys low on someone like Ankie and he hits like his previous level. Although, it’s a good point that it would scare future free agents from coming here if we kept trading everyone as soon as possible.

by Adam Reynolds on Sep 22, 2009 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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