2009 in Review: Lynchburg Hillcats
This is the last in a series of wrapups on the Pirates' minor league affiliates. I'm finishing with Lynchburg because their season lasted longest, ending with them winning the Carolina League championship.
Before we look too deeply into what happened here, a glance at WTM's preview of Lynchburg's season is in order.
The bad news is that they’ll probably be hit hard by the miserable scouting done by Dave Littlefield and his band of bozos. The good news is that they’ll probably open the season with Pedro Alvarez on the roster, although hopefully he won’t be there long. The infield should be in good shape, and not just due to Alvarez, but the rest of the team could be a mess.
Based on the information available at the time, WTM wasn't wrong. The Hillcats looked like a mess everywhere except the infield. But along the way, three things happened:
1) The Hillcats got much better players than expected, minimizing the effect of the Littlefield/Creech team's "miserable scouting."
Of Lynchburg's rotation, WTM wrote that "Unless the Pirates have some guys I don’t know about stashed away somewhere, I don’t see how Lynchburg is going to get through the year with these starters." Well, the Bucs moved Ronald Uviedo to the rotation from the bullpen, a decision that worked very well. They also acquired Jeff Locke, who pitched much better for the Hillcats than he had earlier that season for the Braves, and Nathan Adcock at midseason. Late in the year, they also added Rudy Owens, who had been having a surprisingly great year for West Virginia, and Owens pitched well down the stretch. Presto, problem solved.
In the bullpen, the Hillcats got Michael Dubee after the Pirates added him in a minor trade, and he quickly emerged as a dominant reliever, striking out 53 batters in 37 innings and posting a 1.45 ERA. And in the lineup, they lost Pedro Alvarez after a couple of months (as expected), but they added Josh Harrison (who admittedly didn't actually play very well), Chase D'Arnaud (who did), Eric Fryer, and, very late in the season, Tony Sanchez and Starling Marte.
The team didn't actually play very well in the second half, posting a 28-42 record, but the losses of Alvarez and Miles Durham, an old-ish outfielder who had produced well for them in the first half, as well as organizational catcher Kris Watts' inevitable return to earth (Watts batted .444 in April) were mitigated by the additions of all these other players. (Fortunately for the Hillcats, some playoff berths in the Carolina League are awarded based purely on first-half play.)
2) A number of players were better than expected.
Throughout much of May and June, Lynchburg's rotation was held together by Matt McSwain, an organizational type who doesn't strike anyone out but nonetheless managed to post a 3.43 ERA in 144 innings. D'Arnaud looked like a decent prospect upon his promotion from West Virginia, but he emerged as a very good one in Lynchburg, adding more power after his promotion.
3) A number of players experienced improvements throughout the year.
The team in general did not improve over the course of the year, but a number of its prospects did. The poster boy for these improvements is pitcher Justin Wilson, the Pirates' 5th-round pick in 2008. The Bucs sent him to Lynchburg at the beginning of the season, an aggressive assignment for a pitcher with no pro experience, and Wilson posted ERAs of 5.00 in April, 7.17 in May, and 7.71 in June. After that, though, he was terrific, posting a 2.89 ERA after the All-Star break. 2008 third-rounder Jordy Mercer had an up-and-down year, but he capped it with a strong August and posted an OPS 85 points higher in the second half than in the first. And, as previously mentioned, Locke, D'Arnaud and Dubee all improved after joining the Hillcats.
Not everything was perfect. Bryan Morris, the top pitcher acquired in the Jason Bay trade, missed time at the beginning of the year with an injury, got suspended later for chewing out an umpire, and never really pitched particularly well at any point. And Alvarez didn't really start hitting until after he was promoted to Altoona. All in all, though, the Hillcats had a very good year for a team that, with the questionable talent pool in the low minors at the beginning of the season, probably should have been pretty bad.
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Comments
What happened to Lynchburg during their strong first half was that they cobbled together a pretty good staff that included only one guy drafted by DL. Uviedo did well in the rotation. Matt McSwain had a very good year in a non-prospect sort of way. Chi-Hung Cheng barely scuffled by with an endless stream of curveballs, just well enough to win a bunch of mostly high-scoring games before they released him. Dubee was amazing after they traded for him. Dustin Molleken was very strong after years of injuries. Mike Colla had a strong first half before falling apart in the second half. And RJ Rodriguez was the bullpen version McSwain. It’s funny that they made the playoffs with a bunch of pitchers who mostly were not prospects, then won in the playoffs with a bunch of prospects.
I just wish NH could do so well cobbling together a major league team while we wait for the prospects to pan out.
by WTM on Sep 23, 2009 3:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Regarding Dubee
Where does he stand as a prospect at this point? Like you said, he was great in A+, and pretty good in AA. He’ll be 24 in January. He’s always had pretty high K/9 numbers, and his BB/9 is down from previous years. He wasn’t that highly regarded by the Phillies or White Sox, was he? (He couldn’t have been highly regarded by Chicago if they traded him for Andy Phillips, obviously.)
by biggyv on Sep 23, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He wasn’t nearly as effective in AA. His ERA was good, but his WHIP doubled and his opp. BA increased by 100 points. I saw him a couple times with Altoona. His curve is good but his FB is too hittable. I don’t really consider him a prospect.
by WTM on Sep 23, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So an organizational guy with a AAA ceiling, would you say?
by MrPedriqueIfYoureNasty on Sep 23, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
But his WHIP doubled from miniscule to meh. I agree that 39 hits in 34 IP is too many. A full year at Altoona can give us a clear picture, I’m sure, but I wouldn’t rule out his having a role in a ML bullpen someday.
by biggyv on Sep 23, 2009 4:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
1.44 is weak
A guy who can pitch in the majors should dominate in the minors, especially a reliever. It’s still a pretty small sample size, but he’s got to do a lot better than that.
by WTM on Sep 23, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As a contrast
Dustin Molleken was promoted to AA at the same time as Dubee. Molleken has better stuff than Dubee but weaker command, and had almost exactly the same WHIP at 1.43. He also had almost exactly the same HR rate. The main difference was Molleken walked more and Dubee gave up more hits, but Molleken’s ERA was two runs higher. Actually, there was one other difference: Molleken averaged two innings per outing, Dubee a little over one. Because of the way current mgmt. develops pitchers, that tells me they think more highly of Molleken. Dubee’s ERA was probably lower because in most cases he got out of the game before he could get roughed up for a bunch of runs, something that happened to Molleken several times. Despite the huge difference in ERA, I’d take Molleken over Dubee.
by WTM on Sep 23, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is where Alderson should start next year
Guy was horrible when I saw him in his AA stint minus one start. Sorry, but the age excuse doesn’t apply, his stuff is subpar. Messing with his mechanics won’t work either as they will just cause injury. The Pirates have to hope he learns to throw a breaking ball and changeup. Long way away.
I watched fellow central guys like Homer Bailey and Yo Gallardo light it up as younger 20 year olds 3 years ago, Alderson can’t hold a candle to either, especially Bailey physically.
The Pirates have simply got to take some chances on some young high ceiling pitching for once. They can’t keep on getting these talent lacking kids. They are falling even farther behind everyone except maybe the Astros looking foward.
The Cardinals with LaRussa/Duncan will always be a challenge, The Reds finally have a nice young core of talent and a great chip in the minors to deal, The Brewers have young talent and already hit the playoffs once, the Cubs have the wallets and the will to spend their way to the top. The Astros future looks bleak, but they always muddle around it.
This franchise is so far away from contending for the playoffs compared to everybody else in this division is hurts. The pitching outlook is beyond bad, they overachieved this year, but next year won’t be so kind with this motley band.
Hunnington is just continuing on the tradition of a flawed talent evaluation process.
by Johnnypronto on Sep 23, 2009 4:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Alderson
Has a very good breaker, so not sure what you’re talking about on that front.
by Slizeezyc on Sep 23, 2009 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In fact
In general I have no clue what you’re talking about.
by Slizeezyc on Sep 23, 2009 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m glad i’m not the only one.
by ravidesai1984 on Sep 24, 2009 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the idea is that we’re supposed to stop getting pitchers with no talent. Personally, I think we should stop getting hitters with no talent, too, but that’s just me.
by WTM on Sep 24, 2009 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, NOW you’re just going too far.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 24, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wilbur, we need 25 men for the Pittsburgh roster. With your proposed approach, I don’t see how we reach even 15.
by JRoth95 on Sep 25, 2009 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did I miss the part...
…where the Brewers offered us Gallardo for Freddy?
I must have been drunk.
by Vlad on Sep 24, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that Alderson is unlikely to become the next Maddux, but if he can become a Jeff Suppan/Jon Garland-type inning eater in two or three years, I think the trade would be very much worth it. Even a Jeremy Guthrie-type wouldn’t be a disaster. Arms are arms, and losing two months of Freddy Sanchez (when we needed to see what he had in Delwyn Young) isn’t the highest price in the world to pay.
by fatmink on Sep 23, 2009 8:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Turned out to be just one month of Sanchez, and a pretty crappy one at that.
by WTM on Sep 23, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And maybe he doesn’t get hurt here (although it seemed like a lingering knee issue), and he reaches 600 PAs and triggers his option for next year.
by biggyv on Sep 24, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
“The Pirates have simply got to take some chances on some young high ceiling pitching for once.”
Yeah, if only they’d spring for some High Schoolers with high ceilings. Instead, they draft rag arms like Cain and ZVR.
On the other hand, there is some good news. There IS a king of Spain. He has been found at last. The king…is ME.
by brooklynpirate on Sep 23, 2009 8:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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