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Jack and Freddy (Part 3)

There isn't much interesting to discuss with the Pirates these days.  Obviously the performance is beyond terrible.  However, as you know, the whole Jack and Freddy thing is something I have found rather interesting.

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/8/25/1002303/and-poof-goes-the-option-freddy-on

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/8/24/1000867/jack-and-freddy

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/7/21/956292/crazy-talk-or-not

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/4/15/838940/lets-get-this-out-there-early

Here is some of the latest.  It is just shocking how a GM can say something that is clearly not true, almost to the point of being delusional.

Regarding Freddy Sanchez here is the money quote from Giants GM Brian Sabean:

"You can't deny that Freddy, when he's been out there, has been every bit a No. 2 hitter that we didn't have, and an All-Star second baseman," Sabean said.

Now it is true that they didn't have Freddy before they had him--can't quibble with that.  Here is how Fred has done with SF, missing 25 of the 50 games since being acquired and most likely the rest of the season:

102 At bats, 1 HR, 7 RBIs.    .284 BA, .295 OBP, .324 SLG, .619 OPS, 62 OPS+.......small sample size, but basically terrible.  The Giants aren't picking up the option and it isn't going to vest.  It's been an expensive three months for the guy.  And he needs knee surgery in the offseason.  I'll be surprised if he gets more that $6 million for two years (with playing time incentives) now, when he would have gotten $8 million next year had he been healthy.  


http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_13407708?nclick_check=1

Believe it or not, Jack has been worse in Seattle.  He has played in only 31 games since being acquired and hasn't played since Sept. 15th.  His stats:

107 At bats, 1 HR, 8 RBIs.   .224 BA, .263 OBP, .299 SLG, .562 OPS, 51 OPS+........small sample size, but horrific.

Bottom line:  They are both 32 next year.  They are now both clearly damaged goods.  Freddy's injuries were cited for his terrible year last year (79 OPS+) and he has missed much of the second half this season and now needs surgery in the offseason.  Jack played 87 games last year and 106 (so far) this year.

These two guys aren't getting paid anything close to the "insulting"--according to many--offers they turned down from the Pirates.  

These trades should, at this point, be judged as huge wins for NH.  Trades are judged on results and obviously you can't predict injuries, but the reason NH "lowballed" both guys was precisely the fact that they will be 32 next year and they had some history of injury when they were traded.  So in return for the balance of the season's performance of Jack and Freddy*, some money for Jack for the remainder of this season and Ian Snell and the $7.25 million due him the next two years the Pirates received:  Rony Cedeno (who has put up a line of .258/.307/.394 and an 88 OPS+ with 5 HRs and 21 RBIs since joining the Pirates) and is arbitration eligible next year, Jeff Clement, Nathan Adcock, Brett Lorin, Aaron Pribanic and Tim Alderson--all of whom the Pirates control for the next six years.

A silver lining in an otherwise miserable season.  Let's hope some of these assets pan out.

*They will both become free agents at the end of the season and let's pray that when NH talked about resigning players that had been traded away he didn't mean these two.  Maybe at one year $2-3 million, but not even at the amounts he offered them pre-trade.  Let's just hope we move on (although I'd be willing to consider Freddy as a one year stopgap).

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Thanks for the update

Anything to take the mind off the actual product on the field these days.

by maguro on Sep 24, 2009 3:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

IIRC, there was already talk

on the PBC Blog (by Dejan, not the great unwashed masses) of re-signing Freddy for just that reason – as a stopgap. I’m pretty sure DY won’t be our full time 2B going into the season in 2010.

I wouldn’t mind Freddy getting 80-100 games @ 2B, at a reasonable price.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 24, 2009 3:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Too bad about the knee.

Would’ve been interesting seeing how our bet would’ve turned out if he hadn’t torn it up. With the injury and surgery, he’ll probably end up taking a one-year deal and try to build back up for another shot at a big payday after 2010.

If there’s a saving grace for Jack, it’s that none of the other FA SS have exactly been lighting it up down the stretch, either. Cabrera has a .288 OBP with the Twins since his trade, Scutaro’s carrying a .591 OPS in September, and Greene and Crosby are hardly playing (and struggling when they do). The only ones who aren’t totally tanking are Tejada, who isn’t really a SS anymore, and Alex Gonzalez, who needed a .298/.315/.471 line with Boston just to get his season OPS+ back over 60.

It’s useful to note that both Jack and Freddy have struggled since the trade, and that we got a lot of value for them, but I think it’s dangerous to assume that they would’ve performed exactly the same way here if they hadn’t been moved. Maybe having oatmeal for breakfast last Tuesday instead of eggs and toast last week was all that kept you from getting run over by a bus (all that fiber cost you an extra 10 minutes in the bathroom, say, enough time to keep you out of harm’s way). It’s enough to know that we’re happy with what we got in the deal without extrapolating what might have been, as well.

by Vlad on Sep 24, 2009 3:38 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

OATMEAL?

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 24, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not speculating about......

what could have happened, we are talking about what has happened, so I’m not assuming anything dangerous, I don’t think. Sure they might not have gotten injured, but they did and their history, I’m sure, is part of the reason NH didn’t offer more.

I’m also pretty sure I didn’t extrapolate anything about what might have been, if you were referring to my post. Maybe I misunderstand.

As for the bet, I think it was on unless it was a pre-existing injury. Since Freddy was playing regularly I don’t think him tearing his knee up again constitutes pre-existing, but I’m not too concerned about it. But, either way, no matter how well he comes back I can’t see Freddy ever seeing a “big payday.” I’m would bet a lot that he never makes more in a season than he made in this one—$6.1 million. Actually I’ll bet he never sniffs $5 million again.

by dtoddwin on Sep 24, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, I don't think he'll get a big payday either.

Knee problems are tricky, especially for middle infielders. But I think that he’s likely to pursue that strategy (as Orlando Hudson did last offseason), even if it’s maybe not the optimal one for his particular situation.

On the bit about assumptions, I was mostly responding to one line: “These two guys aren’t getting paid anything close to the ‘insulting’—according to many—offers they turned down from the Pirates.” The fact that Freddy suffered a serious injury and cost himself a bunch of money doesn’t necessarily mean that he was wrong to turn down our offer (as your line seems to be implying), given the situation at the time he made his decision. There were a wide range of potential outcomes available, and while he should’ve considered the possibility of an injury when deciding, that’s not the same thing as knowing for certain that he’d get hurt (i.e. the position in which we find ourselves today). For decision-making purposes, we can’t assume that the knee injury was inevitable just because it actually happened.

by Vlad on Sep 24, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes,

I agree with you that Freddy basically did the right thing in turning down the offer. He couldn’t have thought he wouldn’t make his option obviously, even if he knew he was banged up. And I do feel bad for the guy although I think both he and Jack misplayed the negotiation thing by saying the didn’t know they could counter the Pirates’ offer.

by dtoddwin on Sep 24, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I guess causality was already on my mind anyway, too.

I was at the game yesterday, and one of the people behind me was talking about determining earned/unearned runs for pitchers, after the error at 2B. When the scorer adds things up, he implicitly assumes that the rest of the inning would’ve gone the same way as it did if the error hadn’t been made, and that’s really not a safe assumption a lot of the time. Maybe the catcher calls for a first pitch curve instead of a fastball, because he isn’t worried about the man on 1B stealing, and the hitter puts it into the stands. Maybe the opposing manager sends up a PH, because he’s desperate to make something happen that inning, and that guy stays in the game and makes a key defensive play in the top of the next inning. Maybe the janitor down in the stadium basement gets excited listening to the team turn a DP, and he spills his coffee over the electrical board and shorts out the lights in the whole stadium. Who knows?

by Vlad on Sep 24, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or maybe Ashton Kutcher stares into his journal, travels into the past and changes something that causes a rather logical chain of events in order to demonstrate the unpredictability of complex causes.

charity standing orders

by BadMaafala on Sep 25, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also.....

while true guys might not be lighting it up, Cabrera’s .288 OBP also comes with a .687 OPS and 84 OPS+ with the Twins. And Scutaro’s .591 OPS in 84 Sept. at bats comes with .789 OPS and 109 OPS+ for the season vs. Jack’s .654 and 75. Jack isn’t getting paid this off-season.

by dtoddwin on Sep 24, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Scutaro probably maintains top position...

…among the available FAs, agreed, but he had a chance to build a huge lead on the rest of the field, and he didn’t take it.

Even with the low OBP, Cabrera’s maintaining an OPS+ in the low 80s, but that’s still not a particularly impressive standard, and he probably loses 20+ glove runs to Jack at this point, as badly as his defense has slipped.

Our offer to Jack was what, $4M a year? Gonzalez is getting $5.37M this year, plus either a $500K buyout or a 2010 option for $6M. Beating $4M per isn’t that stiff a trick.

by Vlad on Sep 24, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Alright....

I’m game, let’s go on that. I’ll take under. The injuries are going to kill Jack and if he loses anything defensively he basically is done, unfortunately for him, because he really is terrible offensively.

by dtoddwin on Sep 24, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Probably pass on this one.

It just feels weird to be betting on Jack, for some reason, even if I think the smart money’s on my end of the offer.

by Vlad on Sep 25, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Freddy Sanchez is officially shut down for the season as of today. He will be having surgery next week. Apparently the Giants doctors found out before the trade that he would require offseason surgery, but a re-aggravation last week pushed it forward.

by ElDuce on Sep 26, 2009 4:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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