The numbers DON'T add up...we're unlucky?

by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 5, 2009 6:21 PM EDT Comment 18 comments

I'm sure several of you have seen it already, but our home / road splits reveal some really weird numbers...

The Pirates have also examined run differential numbers, which, too, statistically conclude that though they are scoring fewer runs and allowing more on the road than at home, they are not doing so at such extremes to result in this bad of a road record. Through the team's first 132 games, the Pirates outscored opponents 292-253 (+39 runs) at home. They have been outscored 245-363 (-118) on the road.

Also of note in the article:

Jeff Karstens (lower back strain) and Donnie Veal (sprained left index finger) will both be finishing their rehab assignments early next week and are expected to then immediately join the Pirates. Catcher Robinzon Diaz and shortstop Brian Bixler are the only other Triple-A players expected to get a callup this month.

BIXIE'S COMING BACK ?!?!?!?

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In regards to the road record,

Tim from Bucco Fans, has a different viewpoint on the gap of their home road splits. He chalks it up to how often the Bucs have to change time zones, playing in the NL Central where 4 of the division teams are in the Central TIme Zone. Really great stuff. He’re the link

by thefutureisnear on Sep 5, 2009 7:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If his theory is correct...

it should be even worse when a team goes from the east coast to the west coast and vice versa…but it shouldn’t be limited to just the Pirates…all teams should show the same tendencies.

In addition…if the theory is correct…it should also be obvious in a couple of minor leagues…the PCL and the Southern League.

Frankly…I don’t see the Pirates being allowed to move to the NL East…unless there were a major realignment…or the Marlins move out of Florida…neither of which I see happening any time soon. MLB isn’t going to handicap the Mets almost every year…taking away opportunities for the Yankees to play the Mets (because the 6 team divisions tend to only play 15 interdivision games most seasons, with the 2nd city series usually the one to bite the dust).

by Thunder on Sep 5, 2009 11:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Other teams struggles

He does talk about the other teams in baseball that get screwed like the pirates do with most of the other teams in a different time zone. And they all have struggled in their first two games in that new time zone. The other teams besides Pittsburgh are Cleveland, Detroit, Cincy, Colorodo, and Texas.

by thefutureisnear on Sep 5, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

cocktails

I cannot begin to tell you how disappointed I am that you did not have a visual for the AAAAIEEEE! part.

by bucdaddy on Sep 5, 2009 11:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fixed. Sorry.

Dunno what I was thinking.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 6, 2009 7:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Comments at the linked article

are less than enlightening. In fact I feel dumber after having read them.

by maguro on Sep 5, 2009 11:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think

I would lose less brain cells by hitting my head against a brick wall repeatedly.

Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock

by Green_Wave on Sep 6, 2009 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pythagorean Theorem

Says that based on Pirate Runs Scored and Runs Allowed that they should be 57-77 instead of 53-81 and so that would suggest that they are indeed “unlucky”. However, the 800-pound gorilla in the room that should not be ignored says that we have a pretty lousy team without any power (HR or 2B) and even less pitching and until such time as we get some power production out of 1B & 3B we are not going to see any improvement in our record and will be well on our way to furthering the consecutive year losing streak.

by Illinois Pirate Fan on Sep 6, 2009 12:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

1B, 3B

and SS, and 2B, and C, and LF…

by matskralc on Sep 6, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LF – Milledge has a .816 OPS as a Pirate.
SS – Cedeno has a .768 OPS as a Pirate.
2B – Young, until his slump, was above an .800 OPS for most of the season.

Basically, we only need Doumit to return to form (looks like he has recently), put Pedro at 3B, and cobble together a 1B platoon out of Clement and Pearce (or Laroche) until Tabata comes up and Jones moves to 1B. Then that team will be pretty damn good and balanced offensively.

by PGHcager on Sep 6, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, that’s if everyone who’s hitting well keeps hitting well next season and beyond. Not necessarily an impossibility, but since it’s the Pirates it may very well be

by TravisDW on Sep 6, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope people

don’t count on Jones having a .980 OPS next season.

by Thunder on Sep 7, 2009 3:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think anyone here does

But ZiPS thinks there’s a good chance that he’ll OPS around .850 next year, which would be about league average for his 2 positions. Sadly, he’s below average defensively at both those positions, so he’s below average on net. But he also gets paid league minimum, and we’re not relying on him as a cornerstone of the future. Unless he falls off a cliff, he figures to be an acceptable hole-filler for a year or two.

It’s entirely possible that we could have 3 20-HR guys next year, which would be a nice change. They did that “65 Roses” commercial yesterday, and when I heard that the Pirates are at 107 HR on the season (or whatever it was), I almost retched. That’s such a bad number for a team not playing at Petco.

by JRoth95 on Sep 7, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah…I might expect .850 or so from Jones…but I’ve seen too many people believe that his .980 OPS for half a season is going to be his normal rate of production.

by Thunder on Sep 7, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

…no power OR on-base ability, which is just as if not more important than the power that everyone loves to focus on.

by Gorkys n' Beans on Sep 6, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A note on the theorem

It’s less accurate the farther you get away from .500. So the fact that there’s only a 4 game difference between “expected” wins and actual doesn’t really mean much – in fact, that’s closer than I would have guessed.

It’s also worth noting that the Pirates were ~4 wins behind their Pythagorean record at the time of the Morgan trade (since which point they have consistently played around .333 ball), which means that they have more or less played to their “true” record since then.

Why Charlie insists that a .333 team is in the top third of the losing streak teams, I have no idea.

by JRoth95 on Sep 7, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because they're just bad and not embarrassing as well.

As we’ve gone over at length. None of these guys have beaten their wives, or gotten pinched for drunk driving, or abandoned the team in the middle of the season, etc. They’ve just gotten outplayed.

by Vlad on Sep 9, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs