Doug Mientkiewicz Gets Eighth At-Bat of Season
by Charlie on Sep 7, 2009 8:37 PM EDT
45 comments
Remember when re-signing Doug Mientkiewicz was the most important thing since ever? Fun times.
I generally try not to call out people for things they said seven months ago. I've certainly said my fair share of things that turned out to be wrong, or silly, or irrelevant in retrospect. Every baseball writer has, and it's good to be forgiving, because predicting what's going to happen in a baseball season can be an almost comically inexact science.
The furor over Mientkiewicz, though, was so amazingly shortsighted that it deserves to be mentioned again, just so we don't go through it again in a few months with some other player. The entire 2008-2009 offseason was dominated by talk about how important it is to re-sign Doug Mientkiewicz and how important it was to not trade Jack Wilson. We talked about those things at least once a week.
Mientkiewicz has done nothing, and although neither team could have known it at the time, if the Pirates had kept the Dodgers from signing him, the Dodgers would probably still have Delwyn Young. But hey... veteran leadership!
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A mediocre 1B only bench player who did not play well at third, and has 2 homers in 285 at bats? We got almost exactly the same deal out of Eric Hinske when he was here (and Hinske fell below expectations).
Mientkiewicz was one of the easiest player ever to replace, and I don’t buy that the “leadership presence” is worth very much if anything.
by Mr. Alvarez on Sep 7, 2009 9:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What I was saying all along.
There are scores of Eye Chart types in baseball, they’re interchangable. I’d rather have guys who can actually play.
by bucdaddy on Sep 7, 2009 10:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The comments at the bottom
are humorous..but that is to be expected I guess.
Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock
by Green_Wave on Sep 7, 2009 10:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting, my recollection is that the 2008/2009 offseason
was dominated by what a horrible player Nymo was and what a big mistake it would be if the Pirates wasted playing time on him on 2009, but perhaps I misremember. Then, come mid season we did go through exactly the same thing with Garret Jones.
by WestCoastBuc on Sep 7, 2009 11:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey, if we could get another Lastings Milledge for Jones I would be thrilled.
by wickethewok on Sep 8, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The biggest problem with the pre-season Nyjer analysis is that not a single drop of ink was used on defense. I can understand not predicting that he would hit as well as he did (which I didn’t either) and that’s why we didn’t want him in. But to completely ignore excellent defense was a sizable problem, and follows the stereotype that power is the only thing to look at on the corners.
a.k.a Gorkys'nBeans
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 8, 2009 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But
He wasn’t a good defender last year. He magically became better this year, hence why no one talked about his defense during the offseason.
by Slizeezyc on Sep 8, 2009 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But defensive metrics like UZR even prior to this year tell a different story.
a.k.a Gorkys'nBeans
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 8, 2009 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
UZR doesn't have much value...
…for samples of less than 1,000 innings.
by Vlad on Sep 8, 2009 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What a great defense
of the people who were 100% wrong about NyjMo.
by JRoth95 on Sep 8, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong how? When he was traded he was hitting less than .280, was getting caught stealing 35% of the time, and was barely OPSing over .700. Okay, so his defense for a left fielder was outstanding, but outside of that he was part of the problem.
Good for him, he’s apparently become the second coming of Rickey Henderson somehow after the trade, but don’t forget how forgettable he was while playing here. Tony Plush-isms notwithstanding.
by TravisDW on Sep 8, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My recollection is that
Morgan’s WAR was second highest on the team to Sanchez at the time he was traded and a full win above that of Dunn, whom at least some of Morgan’s detractors felt that we should pay $10- 12 mil to come and play LF for us. I would be at least tempted to call advocating paying $10 million+ instead of $400K for a guy who will cost us a win wrong.
by WestCoastBuc on Sep 8, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
WAR also had Andy LaRoche as better than Jason Bay at one point not too long ago. Just sayin’…
by TravisDW on Sep 8, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s more a criticism of Andy Laroche’s play since the comparison was made than a criticism of WAR itself.
by maguro on Sep 8, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please don't tell me
that we’re going to re-argue whether NyMo sucked or not? Life is too short for this.
Thunder had great stats of what NyMo had done for the PBC offensively after the first 2 weeks of April 2009. It was not a small sample size.
And those of us who watched NyMo play the OF in 2007 and 2008 (Vlad is quite correct, above, about the usefulness of UZR) saw a guy who made the routine play look amazing. He got late starts on fly balls, and took erratic round-about routes to the ball. He also was infamous for throwing to the wrong base (is that even measured by UZR?).
In short, NyMo had all the problems, both defensively and on the base paths (not just stealing and pickoffs), of a guy who came to BB late in life. The game just wasn’t natural to him and it showed.
I don’t care if he is one of the “cornerstones” of the Nationals. That’s like saying he’s the foundation of a sand castle built below the high tide line. A MLB team with a starting LF who hits 3 HR in a season (should be NyMo’s career high) stinks.
by WstCstBucco on Sep 8, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't stand it...
one of you “West Coasters” is gonna hafta change your handle…
.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 8, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s true — I’m but a pale shadow of the original.
I was thinking of changing my handle to “The Poster formerly known as WstCstBucco”
by WstCstBucco on Sep 8, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
. . . or else “Cap’n Pissgums”
(my avatar, for those who don’t recognize the feared buccaneer)
by WstCstBucco on Sep 8, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
S. Clay Wilson?
Like, the Checkered Demon?
.
…freakin’ AWESOME!
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 8, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll just say that it’s very convenient to cut both his first couple weeks of good hitting and his time with the Nationals. That’s quite a bit of slicing and dicing.
I agree with Vlad that you need about 1,000 innings to really tell a solid picture on a players defense. Now, we’ve got a 1500 inning sample of Nyjer playing +28 outfield defense in his ML career.
Look, I was as strongly in favor of getting Milledge as anyone. But it’s just false that Morgan “sucks”.
- Gorkys'nBeans
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 8, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you just look at that 0-for-5 game
when he dropped a ball, you can really see how awful the guy is.
Incredible that the argument is made with a straight face.
by JRoth95 on Sep 8, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
7 HR’s in the last 5 years. That doesn’t get it done.
by WstCstBucco on Sep 8, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure it does, depending on what the player’s other skills are.
- Gorkys'nBeans
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 8, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well it’s ok power numbers for someone who’s a top of the order starting pitcher.
But a starting LF? Not so much.
by WstCstBucco on Sep 8, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It depends on the individual situation of the player. Chone Figgins at 3B is another example.
- Gorkys'nBeans
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 8, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But but but?!?
Figgins has 28 HR in less than 7 full ML seasons. Ozzie freakin’ Smith had 28 HR in 19 seasons. Maury Wills, who had zero power and played in a pitcher’s paradise during the era when the mound was raised, still had 20 HR in 14 seasons.
NyMo, if he plays until he’s 40, will never top the HR numbers of any of these players (even if Figgins retires today).
Please defend a starting LF with 7 HR’s in 5 seasons, who turns 30 next season.
by WstCstBucco on Sep 8, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defend it? He’s played +30 defense. That’s where the value is.
The deal with Figgins is that he hasn’t hit very many HRs in the past 3 seasons but is still a very good player in this time.
- Gorkys'nBeans
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 8, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Before Nymo was traded
I asked if there was a stat that would incorporate both a player’s offensive and defensive contributions so that a comparisson of a good offensive player vs a good defensive one would be more than hand waving. Someone here suggested that WAR does that. I found that amoung national league LFs, Morgan was third at the time and I imagine his WAR is still pretty high.
To make your case, I think you need to do more than mention all of the HRs that Morgan doesn’t hit and explain why WAR is an unreliable measure or at least misleading in Morgan’s case. Maybe there is another stat out there that incorporates both a player’s offense and defense that you like better.
by WestCoastBuc on Sep 8, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which weighs more?
Five tons of flax, or five tons of bricks?
They’re both the same, of course. Five tons is five tons. And it’s the same way with runs. Five runs’ worth of HR are worth the same as five runs’ worth of doubles, or five runs’ worth of HBP, or five runs’ worth of baserunning. Runs are runs.
by Vlad on Sep 9, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just to clarify:
I believe it would have been reasonable before the start of the year to assume that Nyjer would be a positive defender in LF. The exact magnitude of that positive contribution was the question – and his D this year has definitely been on the upper end of possible outcomes, accounting for a big chunk of his 2009 value.
His time with the Nats probably does need to be asterisked a bit for predictive purposes, insofar as he’s got a huge platoon split and they had almost no games against LHP since the trade. That’s not something that’s necessarily likely to continue in future seasons.
by Vlad on Sep 9, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Other defensive metrics came to the same conclusions. And the Pirates weren’t in a position to see a 500+ inning sample of +20 outifeld defense and completely hand-wave it or not give his abilities consideration.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 8, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The artist formerly known as Gorkys makes a good point
And Joe Posnanski would be so proud.
Plus the Seattle Mariners are nodding approvingly somewhere and they’re only 72-66 in a league with a DH having used Carlos Silva as a starting pitcher this season.
Just some things to think about.
by MrPedriqueIfYoureNasty on Sep 8, 2009 8:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
IMO, the problem with all the Nymo (and Jones) talk wasn’t that we should have seen it coming (we shouldn’t have) but that it was said with such certainty and regularity.
charity standing orders
by BadMaafala on Sep 8, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
The certainty is and was maddening.
By the way, Vlad, where do we send the flowers when Jones hits his 20th?
by JRoth95 on Sep 8, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Leave 'em planted.
Donations to Doctors Without Borders are always welcome, though.
by Vlad on Sep 8, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those comments are just mind boggling.
A bunch of people who couldn’t figure out the English language were saying that the Pirates were clueless for not signing Mientkiewicz to an extension. I wonder how many of them even remember him playing with the Pirates.
by IAPiratesFan on Sep 8, 2009 5:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This is why we stay over here and let them play over there.
by MrPedriqueIfYoureNasty on Sep 8, 2009 8:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Jeff Salazar isn't a Pirate next year
I’m finished with this team.
by bucdaddy on Sep 8, 2009 9:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You must have meant to type “Bixler”
by WstCstBucco on Sep 8, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you think Pirates have clueless fans?
Every Nats fan I know (small pool) is genuinely excited about Tony Plush and can’t understand why anyone would want Milledge. I try to explain that 24 year olds with 3 years of MLB service, 1000 PAs and 27 HRs are not that common. Captain Morgan is 29 and classic WYSIWG, and more notably his skill set won’t translate well with age. Not that declining after never being good has ever stopped Mientkiewicz
by chicos_pants on Sep 10, 2009 3:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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