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Future Shock: Pittsburgh Pirates


The article of the day in Baseball Prospectus is entitled "Pirates Adrift" in which the author, Kevin Goldstein, analyzes the team fire sales leading to the record 17th consecutive losing season and has very little praise for any of the players received other than Lastings Milledge who he declares could be a potential star. 

Jeff Clement: he doesn't see where he fits into our system, believes he will not live up to original draft status, and could end up blocking Pedro Alvarez's progress.

Gorkys Hernandez: feels his inability to hit for average and impatient approach with little power will end up another Nyjer Morgan.

Tim Alderson: his below-average velocity will hurt and they feel his chances of ever becoming an impact player are slim.

Charlie Morton: they believe his 5.43 ERA will improve but only slightly and that because of his age and skillset they don't believe any significant improvement will follow.

Kevin Hart: their scouts believe he is destined to pitch out of the bullpen and that he doesn't have the stuff to be a MLB starter

Ronny Cedeno: their summary of his skills are that of a valuable utility player or starting SS but only on a second-division team.

In summary, they don't feel as if we got much in return for our players and likened our deals to a garage sale which basically involves trading our junk for someone else's junk.  GIGO: garbage-in, garbage-out.

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eh

I get that feeling with some of the moves and players we acquired. Theres a few trades I probably would have not done if it were me. The Grabow and Gorzelanny trade I really did’nt agree with, and the Jack Wilson trade also. I think Clement is still gonna be a really good hitter, but I just don’t see a position for him. But you can’t judge Huntington on those trades until you know what other offers he had for those players and what ones he turned down etc….

I think he hit homeruns on the Nady, McClouth, Sanchez and Morgan deals but strukeout on the Bay, Wilson, and Grabow trades, but thats only my opinion and time will tell…

by FusilliJerry88 on Sep 8, 2009 1:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

ding, ding, ding...

We have a winner.

“…you can’t judge Huntington on those trades until you know what other offers he had for those players and what ones he turned down etc…”

Exactly. I’m constantly mystified by people who criticize trades — as though there were some way to have gotten more. I like to think I know a little about baseball, but I don’t know anywhere near as much as the least-talented front office executive with any team in the MLB — including the Pirates. And if they say this is the best deal on the table, I believe them. After all, what possible motivation could they have for turning down something better?

When you get right down to it, the choice in any trade is never between two competing deals, because the return for one is usually far superior to what everyone else is offering. No, the choice is between doing that deal and not doing a deal at all.

For the Pirates, that’s an easy choice to make. We don’t know whether the players we acquired will amount to, but judging from the won-lost record even before the trades, what did we have to lose?

by bucfaninwa on Sep 8, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

WTF?

Your statements ASSUME the Pirates FO knows what it’s doing and is doing the best job they can possibly do under the circumstances. Jesus. You’re too willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. We’re 31 games under .500, last place in a division with 3 below .500 teams above us, and we’re on track to lose 100+ games. Results count, points for style are meaningless, and this ship is going down like the Titanic.

by dougalmac on Sep 14, 2009 3:52 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's not an assumption.

It’s a result of a systematic analysis of their strategy and tactics. Your error is in assuming that the performance of the 2009 team should be of paramount importance.

Poor drafts by Ed Creech when Littlefield was the GM left the farm system nearly bereft of talent. In order to turn the franchise around in any lasting way, they needed to greatly improve the number and quality of prospects within the system. As such, their moves have been (correctly) focused toward that end, and the performance of the ML team this year isn’t really relevant in an analysis of that goal and their efforts toward achieving it.

by Vlad on Sep 14, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for putting the last 2 discussion posts down the line one.

I’m not concerned about the Jack/Snell trade. Snell’s head will never be figured out and Jack is Jack and will only go downhill from here. I think the chances of this trade turning out in our favor is 75-25. Clement > Pierce, if Clement can play 1B. Even if it’s a platoon, that’s ok.

Grabow was gone anyway (didn’t see us resigning him), so essentially we got Hart, Ascanio, and a prospect for Gorzo. What are the chances Gorzo turns into anything for the Cubs? I’d say the chances of him making the Cubs next year are 50-50 at best.

We have a chance to have a very strong bullpen next year. Meek, Hanrahan, Ascanio, Chavez, and Capps (praying), is a good start. And I may be missing someone. This is assuming Kerrigan stays, which I believe he will.

Signed – The Eternal Optimist

by God Loves on Sep 8, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I generally agree with the article, although the Bucs probably did close to the best they could with what they were given. If Jason Bay or Nathan McLouth were worth elite prospects (like Neftali Feliz or Elvis Andrus in the Teixeira deal), I believe that they would have gotten them.

Goldstein pointed to Milledge as a potential star, which is more generous than Jim Callis of Baseball America who said the only stars in the system after the deadline were still McCutchen and Alvarez.

And as far as Hart and some of those guys to the bullpen, the same was said about Ohlendorf last year, that he would have to move to a relief role. Ohlie might be better there, but he has learned to survive as a starter and after another year of working with the right people, Hart may be in that position as well.

- Gorkys'nBeans

by Adam Reynolds on Sep 8, 2009 4:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree and disagree with KG. Pirates didn’t add a bunch of guys from the preseason top 10 lists, but they did add a lot of depth and I think at least a few of these solid, but not spectacular prospects will exceed expectations. I can’t point to one trade that I thought was a steal for or against the Pirates. They all seemed fair to me.

by bolton on Sep 8, 2009 4:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think one consideration that’s missing here is quantity. Really, any player is a potential anything; it’s more a matter of likelihood than anything else. When you get as many decent pitchers as the Pirates did, for example, you’re pretty likely to get at least one very solid starter out of it. I agree with his assessments of a lot of individual players but I think that some of them are likely to turn out to be good players anyway.

by Charlie on Sep 8, 2009 4:10 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It’s also true that it kind of ignores the fact that the Pirates aren’t trying to rebuild solely through trades, which was more or less the approach under Littlefield. If nothing else, they traded off a group of guys that had a limited future in Pittsburgh for a larger group of guys under control for a longer period of time, which hopefully will result in some players complimenting the players they’ve drafted or signed internationally.

http://www.whygavs.com
http://mlb.fanhouse.com

by whygavs on Sep 8, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

KG's

article is slightly mischaracterized by IAF. (it also appears on ESPN Insider under the headline of Pirates’ “Treasure”.) He was evaluating the talent we got back and didn’t think it was great….., but then again we didn’t give up great stuff.

As whygavs says above, he does say that the team will improve or not based on talent evaluation, drafting and player development.

by dtoddwin on Sep 8, 2009 4:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Exactly. “Garbage in garbage out” is the key phrase — we traded away odds and ends and got back younger versions of the same. You can’t get impact potential in return for the likes of Jack Wilson.

by shayborg on Sep 8, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

To fairly judge NH actions

Require that we evaluate all the various options available to him and not just what players where available at the time the trades were made. The acquisition of young, unproven talent is just one way in which to rebuild a team. Investment in draft choices and in young Latin American talent is another in addition to the acquisition of free agents and so I don’t think it’s fair to judge NH solely based upon what trades were available to him. Timing is everything and he must be held accountable for what he could have done as well as what he actually did. I still think Adam Dunn would have been a good acquisition with our short RF porch and believe NH missed badly on that one. The signing with Washington is simply evidence that he wasn’t demanding to play on a pennant contender and so the Pirates cannot be ruled out as a possibility. When management has the chance to acquire FA that fits well into our ballpark and team concept it should be vigorously pursued because the various methods of rebuilding are not mutually exclusive and can be combine together to improve the quality of the team.

by Illinois Pirate Fan on Sep 8, 2009 9:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Dunn would’ve been good, but I could’ve seen us trading him before the deadline for prospects..lol.

However, I wouldn’t have sold the market considering most likely he would done a 1-2 yr type deal. and I don’t think that would’ve helped the pirates long term so you don’t want to overpay…not saying that Wash overpaid, but not sure what the pirates were willing to pay.

I guess if we had Dunn for 2-3 yrs , he might be a placed holder and then Pearce may have come up as an old prospect or….idk…trades would’ve been so different…not needing to look for another 1B for a while, not getting Clement (because remember we wouldn’t know much about Pearce other than he’s hitting in AAA and middlin’ there at best)

Garret Jones would be platooning much more at RF with Moss And maybe maybe once in a while at 1B giving Dunn a rest.

by lfhlaw on Sep 9, 2009 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dunn wasn't really an NH failure

…as it was a Mike Rizzo success. He had absolutely no intention of trading Dunn. He’s a $20MM HR/RBI producer at half the price. As bad as Washington is, a 3-4-5 of Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham is as solid as any… not to mention, better than the Pirates.

"Straight ball I hit very much, but curveball, bats are afraid." - Pedro Cerrano

by silencerdu on Sep 9, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And despite that great heart of the lineup, they’ve still got a death grip on the #1 overall pick. What’s the point?

by shayborg on Sep 9, 2009 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The point was simply

that NH couldn’t have acquired Dunn because he wasn’t available. The rest was just more matter of fact than anything. They can’t win games because they have absolutely no pitching.

"Straight ball I hit very much, but curveball, bats are afraid." - Pedro Cerrano

by silencerdu on Sep 10, 2009 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry...but that point is wrong.

Adam Dunn was a free agent…and wasn’t signed until February 11th…3 days before spring training started…by the Nationals. The Pirates Could have signed him.

by Thunder on Sep 15, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh you meant BEFORE the season...

I thought we were talking before the trade deadline. My bad.

"Straight ball I hit very much, but curveball, bats are afraid." - Pedro Cerrano

by silencerdu on Sep 25, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

KG

hasn’t really said anything new regarding those particular prospects and players.

Only thing i might disagree on is that clement is blocking Alvarez…..and That’s only if Alvarez makes the move to 1B which NH has said they don’t quite plan on it yet…..

From what people have mentioned re: Gorkys Hernandez since the trade and watching him play, it didn’t sound like he was going to provide power and he was going to be another NyjMo. but with a big spacious left field, you need 2 CF kinda.

As for Alderson, he just need to learn to pitch verses throw. Not all pitchers have stunning 90-95 MPH fastballs. If he can mix his speeds effectively he can still do well. not saying he’s a #1 starter, but if he can put up good numbers he’s fine.

I’ve kinda soured on Morton and Hart a bit. I think Hart will be a better relief pitcher. I still give Morton a chance as a starting pitcher, but with a couple of people in the minor’s pushing Morton’s time is gonna be limited next year i think (Maybe Lincoln, idk who else)

Cedeno, i think has been a slight improvement over Wilson IMO granted his defense is prob just slightly below JW, but he’s hit better i think than JW.

Anyhow, most of these trade IMO were done more to be able to field a baseball team now and kind of hold the line until the draft picks that NH/FC picked make it to the MLB.

by lfhlaw on Sep 8, 2009 11:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Alderson’s lack of velocity has seen a lot of criticism, some of which I agree with, but I thought it was pretty funny tonight to watch Madison Bumgarner throwing 87 MPH fastballs tonight. How quickly will all the scouting types freak out about him?

by ElDuce on Sep 9, 2009 12:22 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think it's just fatigue.

He’s worked pretty hard this season.

If it doesn’t bounce back next spring, they’ll probably freak out then.

by Vlad on Sep 9, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I actually discovered after I posted that Kevin Goldstein was actually freaking out on Twitter last night. Apparently his velocity has been down like this since late in July.

by ElDuce on Sep 9, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Huh.

I hadn’t heard that, either.

by Vlad on Sep 9, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I may be smoking dope, but I swear that KG tweeted that the Wilson/Snell deal was his favorite of all the recent Pirate trades (including the ones from last year).

by mak_DC on Sep 9, 2009 5:10 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Did anyone else hear Kevin Goldstein’s interview on Rocco’s countdown to ignominy #10: Pirates top 10 prospects? It seems that much of what he said on that show contradicts what he wrote above. He was very high on Gorkys and liked a lot of their prospects.

by TheLizardKing on Sep 9, 2009 5:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Charlie Morton

Everyone has been kinda harsh on him. I think he’s a solid starter for us. Sure he’s inconsistent at times, but he has had his moments this year where he looked great. Take the florida game for example. He pitched 5 innings of good solid baseball, but fatigue got the best of him down the stretch. As for the Cedeno trade it wasn’t that bad considering that Gorzo was a mess.

by William Pennyfeather on Sep 28, 2009 1:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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