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Around SBN: Jeff Sullivan's MLB Trade Deadline Primer

What to Expect in 2010

These are just for fun. I don't think decisiveness is necessarily a virtue when trying to predict the future, because there are a fairly wide range of outcomes for each player's performance. Just because I say something bad about Tim Alderson here, for example, doesn't mean I don't think Alderson is a prospect. Nonetheless, here are some wild-eyed and not-super-serious predictions. Feel free to post your own in the comments.

-P- The Pirates will finish fifth in the NL Central, ahead of the Astros. They will not, however, finish anywhere near .500.

-P- Ryan Doumit will be traded or on the DL by June. Zach Duke will be traded by the July deadline.

-P- Andrew McCutchen will take a small step backward with his hitting. He's a great young player who made genuine strides last year, but I still suspect his brilliant debut was a bit too good to be sustainable in the near term. He will, however, emerge as one of the best defensive centerfielders in baseball.

-P- Lastings Milledge will take a step forward, continuing to hit for average while adding some power, but no one will notice because they'll be too busy freaking out about some minor attitude flareup.

-P- Charlie Morton will be best starter in a reasonably good Pirates rotation. Ross Ohlendorf, whose late-season surge wasn't really supported by his peripherals, will take a small step backward. 

-P- Brad Lincoln will join the Pirates rotation by June. He won't be inspiring, but he'll get the job done.

-P- Pedro Alvarez will bump Andy LaRoche to second base in June. Alvarez will be as good as advertised, hitting 30+ homers between AAA and the big leagues.

-P- Chris Jakubauskas will emerge as a solid reliever. He will not start, however, denying the Bucs' public address people the pleasure of using this (NSFW) as his at-bat music.

-P- The performances of the various veterans the Pirates have traded over the past couple years will collectively do little to make the Bucs regret shipping them off.

-P- The Pirates will cut Ramon Vazquez in Spring Training.

-P- Tim Alderson will collapse as a prospect, posting a five-plus ERA for Altoona. 

-P- Neil Walker and Danny Moskos will both play badly and will still be given much better than they deserve by fans who remember them primarily as former first-round picks.

-P- One of the Pirates' prospect-packed Class A teams will win a league championship. The West Virginia Power will have problems finding playing time for all their pitching prospects.

-P- Quinton Miller will emerge as one of the Pirates' best prospects.

-P- By season's end, the Bucs' farm system will be widely regarded as one of the best in baseball.

-P- Few fans who say "I'M DONE WITH THIS TEAM" will, in fact, be done with the team.

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out of curiosity

What happens to Iwamura when LaRoche gets bumped to second?

by epoc on Jan 1, 2010 3:59 PM EST reply actions  

I quess we would move him to short

Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: DIck Lebeau, Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Chris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"If you give Arians a fullback, he won’t use one. Instead, he insists on using Matt Spaeth, who probably doesn’t cast a shadow because it would require blocking sunlight." Cliff harris is still a punk with some very true words

by WVPiratesfan on Jan 1, 2010 4:03 PM EST up reply actions  

has he ever played short before? I don’t really see that happening, honestly. A trade would be my guess.

by epoc on Jan 1, 2010 4:13 PM EST up reply actions  

if that is Chris' at-bat music it would be the greatest ever

Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: DIck Lebeau, Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Chris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"If you give Arians a fullback, he won’t use one. Instead, he insists on using Matt Spaeth, who probably doesn’t cast a shadow because it would require blocking sunlight." Cliff harris is still a punk with some very true words

by WVPiratesfan on Jan 1, 2010 4:04 PM EST reply actions  

LaRoche and 2nd Base

So if LaRoche gets moved to 2b it only further justifies the stupidity of trading for and paying Imawura.

But I guess the anti-management crowd doesn’t make sense, right Charlie?

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 4:19 PM EST reply actions  

Never really understood this argument

All we gave up was Jesse Chavez, and Iwamura is only signed for one year at $4.85 million. It makes us better in the short-term and does not hurt us in the long-term.

Pittsburgh Lumber Co.
http://mvn.com/pittsburghlumberco

by MBandi on Jan 1, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Huh?

It’s okay to release arguably one of the Pirates better relievers over $500,000 and it’s okay to trade for an unnecessary 2b for 4.85 million? How does that make sense? When the Pirates continaully watch where every single dollar is spent, I’m not sure how anyone could defend paying Imawura nearly 5 million to only be a starter for 2 months assuming LaRoche is moved to 2nd.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 4:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Iwamura will either be the Pirates 2B for the whole season, or if LaRoche takes over at 2B, Iwamura can switch positiions or be traded. There’s no worry about seeing that $5 million going to waste.

by Kidspud on Jan 1, 2010 4:45 PM EST up reply actions  

What other position is Iwamura going to play if not 2b? Third, as it’s the only other place he’s seen action in MLB? I don’t think so.

So sorry, paying Iwamura almost 5 million and Vazquez 2 million is the epitome of wasting money. That’s more money than they gave Jeromy Burnitz, which was also wasting money.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 4:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Iwamura could play shortstop.

Also, what do you say to trading Iwamura if/when LaRoche is ready to play 2B?

by Kidspud on Jan 1, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions  

You mean someone like Jesse Chavez? Is that supposed to make the trade appear better?

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 7:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Not sure what your problem is...

If the Pirates could obtain a player of value that’s equal to Iwamura, then that would be perfectly fine. If Iwamura has served his purpose with the Pirates by the time Alvarez is called up, then it wouldn’t make sense not to trade him.

by Kidspud on Jan 1, 2010 8:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m fine trading Iwamura if the opportunity presents itself. But the going rate for Iwamura would appear to be someone like Jess Chavez. And by making that sort of trade, what have they gained in the long run, outside paying Iwamura three or four months salary?

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 8:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Glad to see the Pirates making April through July of 2010 such a priority.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Two problems with your comment:

1.) The “going rate” for Aki Iwamura is more than Jesse Chavez. The reason the Pirates were able to trade Chavez for Iwamura is because Iwamura was going to hit free agency, and the PIrates were able to fill a need without creating another.

2.) Even if they trade Iwamura right back for Chavez, the PIrates would gain Iwamura’s play at 2B until another solution (LaRoche) would present itself.

by Kidspud on Jan 1, 2010 8:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Iwamura’s value to our 2010 team is much greater than Sanchez’ would be. D. Young was given a chance last year to fill the hole at 2B, but he proved that his upside is limited to being a bench player with a decent bat and some positional flexibility. It could be a disaster if we have to play a butcher like DY at 2B all year, with our pitch-to-contact pitching staff.

LaRoche and Alvarez are both unknown commodities at this point. Will LaRoche find the consistency to be an everyday player? Will Alvarez zip through AAA or will he need a full season or more there? Iwamura stabilizes the 2B position for a reasonable price while we learn the answers to those questions.

If Iwamura puts up his average numbers, he will be more valuable at the trading deadline than he was coming off an injury and about to be non-tendered. This would mean we would be able to get something greater than Chavez in return.

by McGreal on Jan 1, 2010 8:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Chavez not Sanchez

Sorry, i’ll maker sure to hit the ‘preview’ button next time.

by McGreal on Jan 1, 2010 8:45 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m wondering why your having such a hard time with what they have gained? They’ve gained the opportunity to compete in the first few months with Iwamura. Its a long shot to be in contention after the first couple months, but the NL Central appears to be weaker than ever this year so anything is possible. If they fall out of contention early they have Iwamura as trade bait even if the rate for Iwamura is someone like Jesse Chavez than it was a very low risk signing as they did not lose anything. Relievers such as Jesse Chavez are a dime a dozen. A leadoff hitter, gold glove caliber second basemen, and a proven leader are not a dime a dozen. They also gained the security of Pedro not continueing to develop at the rate he has. Every seems to gurantee that Pedro will definetely make his debut this summer. What happens if he takes a step back, and never makes it to Pittsburgh this year? They then have everyday players at third and second base. Keep in mind that having too many players at one position to find playing time for is a good problem to have. A problem the Pirates have’nt had in 15+ years.

by FusilliJerry88 on Jan 1, 2010 9:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Burnitz was a waste of money because he was terrible in 2006 and we already had a better option on the roster. Iwamura is a much better player and he fills a gaping hole at second base. He is not unnecessary.

Relievers just aren’t very valuable compared to everyday position players. Even if Capps pitched at his best in 2010, he would still be less valuable than Iwamura. That’s why Huntington is less willing to spend on the bullpen. I would have kept Capps in hopes that he bounces back, but it will be much easier to replace his production than it would have been to find a starting second baseman.

Pittsburgh Lumber Co.
http://mvn.com/pittsburghlumberco

by MBandi on Jan 1, 2010 7:43 PM EST up reply actions  

lrhotspot, beginning an answer with "Huh?" doesn't bolster your case

You seem to say that things don’t make sense when the FO doesn’t conform to your understanding of the world. Instead, why don’t you try to understand their moves in the context of their values and beliefs. When you do that, you will likely find that their moves do in fact make sense within their value system.

For example, when Dayton Moore traded for Betancourt in Kansas City, I thought it was a stupid decision. But, it did make sense within the context of his value system and beliefs. Instead of being flummoxed by the decision and saying that trade doesn’t make sense, I can simply say I don’t agree with his position that the eyes should be trusted even if the UZR stats don’t back it up.

In the Pirates’ cases of Iwamura and Matt Capps, you seem to think these decisions don’t make sense because they don’t make sense in the context that saving money is the over-riding value system of the Pirates. That right there should tell you that your perception of their value system is incorrect. Either they are not rational people or saving money is not actually the most important thing for them.

As the acquisition of Iwamura shows, this management team is indeed willing to spend money when they feel they are getting good value from the money. The only rational way of understanding these moves is to realize that they feel they are going to get good value from paying Iwamura and they felt they were not going to get good value from paying Capps.

by MarkInDallas on Jan 1, 2010 7:29 PM EST up reply actions  

We’re talking a difference of $500,000 between what the Pirates wanted to give Capps and what Capps wanted. From the Pirates’ perspective,lets look at the risk vs. reward:

Risk: Capps pitches exactly like he did in 2009 and the Pirates have spent an additional $500,000 on reliever that didn’t perform

Reward: Capps regains his 2006-2008 form where he posted an WHIP of 1.05. Because of this, he makes the Pirates better and provides a valuable trading chip should a contender be looking for a closer/reliever. Even if Capps doesn’t pitch well, the additional $500,000 doesn’t remotely impact the Pirates’ ability to continue their rebuild or their financial flexibility.

Seems like there’s a pretty good upside to re-signing Capps with very little risk. Not to mention how that $500,000 truly pales in comparison to what they are giving Crosby and Vazquez, who have a significantly better chance of being bad than Capps and have an extremeley lower chance of being good.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 7:48 PM EST up reply actions  

First, the risk is not $500K. It is $3.5M. Saying it is $500K is like you saying that a certain car is worth $30K, and then the salesman saying that $35K is only $5K more, and certainly if it is worth $30K, then it must be worth $35K to you. There is a threshold above which all purchases become too expensive.

Secondly, you are presenting these two options as if there is a 50/50 chance that either one or the other comes true. The Pirates would have made an evaluation of Capps and decided what THEY think is the chance that any number of outcomes occur – both that he is terrible, that he is dominant and that he performs as a middle of the road relief option.

The fact that they non-tendered Capps is an indication that they do not feel there is a good chance that Capps will return to his dominant form. Huntington himself has said he expects Capps to bounce back, but has alluded to him most likely bouncing back to a middle ground – neither dominant nor horrible.

If he does perform at the level they most expect him to perform at, then he no longer becomes an “asset” in the sense that he is worth more than his contract.

Similarly, the FO believed that if they had to spend 3.5M instead of 3M, the risk out-weighed the reward, and they felt they could get the same production for less money on the free agent market.

It should be noted here that this is exactly the reasoning behind the Freddy trade and subsequent pickup of Aki. Huntington did not “panic”, as you say, in picking up Aki when DY didn’t work out. He fully expected that DY might not work out. There is absolutely no indication that Huntington ever was banking on DY becoming a legitimate starting 2B.

What Huntington said about Freddy’s contract proposal was that he believed that if a deal with Freddy could not be worked out at $5M per year, that there were going to be other options that would provide the same production at that price.

Regardless of whether you think Freddy was low balled or not, Huntington was proved correct.

The correctness of Huntington’s decision on Capps will be seen in 2010 with how Capps actually performs compared to how the relievers he gets instead perform.

I will say now that if Huntington can get Dotel for around $3M or even $3.5M, that to me is a much better option than signing Capps for that same amount.

by MarkInDallas on Jan 1, 2010 10:16 PM EST up reply actions  

LaRoche/Alvarez/Imawura -- Pick two

I think it’s a fair bet that at least one of these three won’t be up for the job next year. This way we have a contingency plan if one of them faceplants.

While I didn’t like the Imawura deal either, I can at least see some logic to it.

by WickD on Jan 1, 2010 4:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Logic? Perhaps

There’s logic to the Pirates acquiring Imawura only if you assume they don’t nickle and dime on nearly every single transaction they make. But when they:

1. Choose their #1draft pick based on fianances
2. Lose the best LA prospect because of fianances
3. Release one of their best relievers over a significantly smaller amount of money

And it’s hard to buy the logic of giving my anything of value and taking on Imawura’s salary. Especially when their were equally good options available a few weeks later for half the price.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions  

None of that stuff really has anything to do with the fact that they needed somebody to play 2B in 2010.

Would you be as upset if they had just re-signed Sanchez for $5M for 2010 and then traded Chavez for Alderson? Because that’s basically what happened.

by maguro on Jan 1, 2010 5:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Are you suggesting the only option the Pirates had going into 2010 for 2b was to trade a young and relatively productive young reliever for a 30 year old coming off major knee surgery who makes nearly 5 million?

As Kelly Johnson’s release by the Braves proved, there were clearly younger and less expensive options available.

Good grief. How people can simultaneously defend releasing Capps over $500,000 while defending acquiring Iwamura and his 5 million salary “becuase there weren’t any other options” is mind boggling.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions  

pretty much right about iwamura- there was no certainty about Kelly Johnson’s availability, and you could get iwamura cheap- better value unless Johnson breaks out. As maguro put it, are you upset with Jesse Chavez for Tim Alderson?

One big difference between Capps and Iwamura is that the latter was thought worth the money and the former not.

by BurgherKing on Jan 1, 2010 5:53 PM EST up reply actions  

This whole Jesse Chavez for Tim Alderson stuff needs to stop. It’s silly and not remotely grounded in reality. The Pirates had a valuable asset in Freddy Sanchez and properly flipped him for a good pitching prospect. That has nothing to do with Jesse Chavez or Iwamura except NH panicked over the hole at 2nd base and worrying about how many games this team will win in 2010. Trading for an aging veteran who will make roughly 15% of the Pirates’ payroll doesn’t help this team rebuild. Especially when you see them regularly allow finances and considerably less money dictate other moves.

But here’s the kicker. Everyone loves Garrett Jones and applaud the Pirates for finding him and allowing him to play. But had the Pirates found an aging veteran to play RF last season, Garrett Jones never would have been given the opportunity in a Pirate uniform. And where the Pirates should be applauded for doing so, I don’t understand how anyone could then applaud doing the opposite with 2b. Essentially, overspending on a mediocre 2b who will have zero impact on the Pirates in 2010 and beyond and preventing them from potentially finding the 2b equivilent to Jones.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 6:01 PM EST up reply actions  

fair enough… lets say sanchez for alderson. Now, Iwamura is pretty good, they dont seem able to find a 2B equivalent of Garrett Jones, 2B was a black hole, they got Iwamura for Chavez which is extremely cheap. Now your objection holds water, IF we cannot find a replacement who can do what Chavez did- agree? If you do, then we’ll see what happens with the bullpen next season, before judging the move.

We certainly had sufficient space on salaries to add Iwamura’s contract, and the FO deemed him worth the contract and took it on. I don’t see a problem with that. The counter-argument with Capps is that the FO deemed him not worth what he was asking, and released him. I was not in favour, but only after the season can we tell if that was right or not.

by BurgherKing on Jan 1, 2010 6:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Replacement level relievers like Chavez are a dime a dozen and aren’t hard at all to acquire. For example, we picked up Steven Jackson for cash considerations, who was just as good as Chavez. Average 2B are a bit harder to find since there are fewer than 30 in the whole world. This was actually a desperate move by the Rays to slash payroll.

by Adam Reynolds on Jan 1, 2010 6:30 PM EST up reply actions  

If replacement relievers are a dime a dozen and not hard to acquire, why have the Pirates had the 2nd to worst and worst bullpens in the NL the last two years?

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 6:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure, NH didn’t overhaul the bullpen he inherited the first year when he should have. Last year (and next) project to be much better with Meek (who missed most of last year) and the two best relievers Jackson/Hanrahan were only acquired mid-season. Plus we hid D. Veal on the ML roster, which will be worth it if he does well in INdy next year as a starter and maybe makes it into the Pit rotation. Management should have addressed the pen sooner, but now that they have they are making it better without much cost. At least that’s my view.

by Adam Reynolds on Jan 1, 2010 6:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Because replacement level relievers are not very good. It’s easy to pick up lousy relievers. And Chavez was pretty lousy last year.

Pittsburgh Lumber Co.
http://mvn.com/pittsburghlumberco

by MBandi on Jan 1, 2010 8:03 PM EST up reply actions  

You’d be well served actually doing a little research before you post. But I understand, when you’re forced to defend things to no end, you may lose a little perspective.

NL Average ERA for relievers last year: 4.00
Chavez ERA last year: 4.01

NL Average WHIP for relievers last year: 1.40
Chavez WHIP last year: 1.35

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 8:08 PM EST up reply actions  

A little more research for our consideration:

Iwamura’s WAR in 2008: 2.6
Iwamura’s WAR in 2009: 1.3
Link

Chavez’s WAR in 2008: 0.0
Chavez’s WAR in 2009: -0.4
Link

by Kidspud on Jan 1, 2010 8:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Are we really going to go down the WAR road again? But you’re right, Ryan Theriot and Kurt Suzuki are more valuable than Andre Either and Chipper Jones.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 8:45 PM EST up reply actions  

What are you talking about?

When have we gone down the WAR road before, and when has anything been said about any of the players you’ve listed?

by Kidspud on Jan 1, 2010 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

We’ve already discussed the flaws of WAR. The metrics used are not sufficent to draw conclusions. Unless you believe Nyjer Morgan is better than Jason Bay.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 8:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Or if you completely discount the value of a player’s defensive contribution…

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.

by glass0941 on Jan 1, 2010 8:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m not discounting it, but it’s already been established WAR completely overvalues is.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 8:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Where has this been established? And can you provide a comparable metrics system that fairly values defense and offense in rating a player?

by Kidspud on Jan 1, 2010 8:52 PM EST up reply actions  

lrspot has spoken

And therefore we shall all bow to his knowledge of the fact that WAR is useless as a metric. All hail ignorance!

by MarkInDallas on Jan 1, 2010 11:28 PM EST up reply actions  

IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH!

by maguro on Jan 1, 2010 11:35 PM EST up reply actions  

A+

"I choose to gamble with my life

Twice the risk, four times the prize

Nothing knocks me over"

by lighthouse913 on Jan 2, 2010 12:45 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

No

You have stated that your personal opinion is that its overvalued. If you look at things from a different perspective, you’re going to get a different result. Its totally possible that maybe you’re biased toward Jason Bay.

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.

by glass0941 on Jan 1, 2010 8:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Below

Irhotspot tried to point out why he doesn’t think advanced metrics make sense/should be taken seriously.

by Slizeezyc on Jan 1, 2010 8:48 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah

i went down that road… its clearly not possible that a worse player in a career year might be comparable or better than Jason Bay or Chipper Jones (the latter did badly enough to think about retiring from a $14M/year contract)

by BurgherKing on Jan 1, 2010 8:59 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s not just WAR/UZR The Fielding Bible plus-minus is nicer to Bay, giving him -4 and Morgan +13 in CF. That’s still about a 27 run difference on defense between Morgan in center and Bay in left (given +10 position adjustment since Morgan is listed in CF).

Since Bay is about 28 runs better with the bat, that would make Morgan and Bay equally as valuable on the field last year. That makes more sense than Morgan being a lot better. Any problem with this one as well?

by Adam Reynolds on Jan 1, 2010 9:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not very concerned with ERA and WHIP

Out of 145 qualified relievers, Chavez was ranked 126th in FIP and 101st in xFIP. Not terrible, but definitely below average.

Pittsburgh Lumber Co.
http://mvn.com/pittsburghlumberco

by MBandi on Jan 1, 2010 9:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Good grief. How people can simultaneously defend releasing Capps over $500,000 while defending acquiring Iwamura and his 5 million salary "becuase there weren’t any other options" is mind boggling.

Actually it’s quite easy to do just that based on past performance. Per Fangraphs, Iwamura was worth $5.7M last year while Capps was worth -$1.8M. Over the last 2 years, the values are $17.2M for Iwamura and $2.5M for Capps.

Mind boggling, eh?

by maguro on Jan 1, 2010 6:12 PM EST up reply actions  

1. If Capps was only worth 1.8 million, why did the Pirates offer him nearly 3 million?

2. Iwamura was worht 5.7 last season? That’s quite a payday for someone who only played 69 games.

Oh, and I completely disagree with fangraphs and their metrics, regardless of this particular debate. And how they state Nyjer Morgan as being worth 7 million more than Jason Bay proves my point.

Yup, mind boggling. And by mind bogglin, I mean your head is so far up NH’s rear, you don’t even ojectively see what your supporting anymore.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 6:18 PM EST up reply actions  

1. I have 2 things to say about this- first, Capps was arb eligible, his previous salary was 2.4M, and arbitration doesn’t tend to reduce salaries based on a year’s performance. Second, could you provide a link that has the Pirates acknowledging $3M? IIRC, they were offering something “very close” to the previous $2.4M.

2. Then you disagree with the value on defense, and so on, that makes the discussion moot, unless you care to provide a way of valuing players. I don’t see why it should be so astonishing that Morgan in a career year could be more valuable than Jason Bay, given he plays CF, and had a great season at the plate.

by BurgherKing on Jan 1, 2010 6:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Here's your link

http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/pbc/archive/2009/12/24/pirates-q-amp-a-good-business-with-capps.aspx

Dejan estimates that the Pirates’ offer to Matt Capps was about $500K shy of what he received from the Nationals. With Washington, Capps will earn a base salary of $3.5MM. So tell me why it’s okay for the Pirates to offer Capps 3 million if fangraphs says he worth only 1.8?

In no galaxy based on logic is Nyjer Morgan worth 7 million more than Jason Bay. And the fact you seem to believe only proves the lengths you will go in order to continue your agenda of supporting all things Neal Huntington. It’s quite a shame you can’t even remotely acknowledge your own lack of objectivity.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 6:39 PM EST up reply actions  

like i said before

Capps was arb eligible, his previous salary was 2.4M, and arbitration doesn’t tend to reduce salaries based on a year’s performance, they are more likely to increase it. So the Pirates would go with a minimal increase on the salary- Read here for Huntongton’s explanation of why they were afraid of a large award to Capps- and as he himself acknowledges, we wont know till later if this was right or wrong. Keep in mind (before you call out anyone’s “agenda of supporting all things Neal Huntington”) I opposed the Capps release on BD, but I m not blind to the other side of the argument, esp when there is no clear answer at this point.

In no galaxy based on logic is Nyjer Morgan worth 7 million more than Jason Bay.

yet, you don’t provide any more reason than that. Note also that I didn’t say I think he was more valuable, I said its not absurd that over one season, he could be. No metric is perfect, and one mistake, if so, doesnt render it meaningless. Further, you haven’t at all responded to the question of whether defense is valuable in your opinion, whether playing a harder defensive position can add value to a player, and whether a good defensive player who has a great season at the plate could have comparable value in a season to a great hitter who gives away runs in the field.

by BurgherKing on Jan 1, 2010 6:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Do I really need to support my claim Jason Bay is better than Nyjer Morgan? Really? Wow, you know less about baseball than I gave you credit.

Secondly, fangraphs greatly overvalues defense. GREATLY. The fact Nyjer Morgan is rates so high proves that. And as position does play a part in evaluating defenders, Nyjer Morgan played 56 games in CF last season.

But really, if we are debating who is better or has more value as a baseball player between Bay and Morgan, we should just end this now.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 7:01 PM EST up reply actions  

you have trouble reading

let me help by quoting from above

Note also that I didn’t say I think he was more valuable, I said its not absurd that over one season, he could be. No metric is perfect, and one mistake, if so, doesnt render it meaningless.

And repeat, that one mistake does not make a statistic meaningless.

And, for some reason, you are hell-bent on comparing Bay and Morgan (when no one says Bay is less valuable than Morgan) when the discussion was about Iwamura being worth the money and Capps not!

by BurgherKing on Jan 1, 2010 7:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m comparing Bay and Morgan to illustrate how truly flawed the metrics are. So when the data used comes to such conclusions, one must question them whether we’re comparing Bay to Morgan, Jack Cust to Nate McLouth, or Iwamura to Capps.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 7:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Do veiled insults

really drive home your point or something?

I mean your head is so far up NH’s rear, you don’t even ojectively see what your supporting anymore.
Wow, you know less about baseball than I gave you credit

Maybe you can complete the douchebag persona by hitting the caps lock over there…

(I apologise for the pseudo-hypocrisy)

by BlindSquirrel on Jan 4, 2010 2:08 AM EST up reply actions  

Well, if you “completely disagree” with their metrics, then I guess you can just assume that Iwamura is worth less than $5M and Capps is worth more than $3M based on…what again?

by maguro on Jan 1, 2010 6:49 PM EST up reply actions  

In all honesty, if the Pirates didn’t allow finances to impact many of their decisions regarding the rebuild, I wouldn’t have a problem with them paying a mediocre 2b 5 million. But when it’s done at the same time they are unwilling to draft high end talent with their first pick in the 2009 draft, sign the best LA prospect, and allow a 26 year old pitcher to be released over $500,000, it’s doesn’t make much since.

But since you asked, Iwamura is 31 year old 2nd baseman coming off major knee surgery who won’t be around for when this team begins to get better. Capps is 26 years old who posted a 1.05 WHIP from 2006-2008 and was under contract through 2011.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 6:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Hey, if that’s your opinion, that’s fine. But recognize that your analysis isn’t objective…you’re cherrypicking Capps’ strong points and Iwamura’s weak points to make your comparison.

In any case, your original question of “How can they be willing to pay Iwamura $5M when they wouldn’t even pay Capps $3.5M?” is impossible to answer directly since Capps and Iwamura are two completely different baseball entities. It’s like asking “How can you pay $18K for that Toyota Camry when you won’t even pay $12K for this Harley-Davidson motorcycle?”. In either case, you need to evaluate each alternative objectively to see if the value matches the price. The team clearly feels that Iwamura is worth $5M and Capps is not worth $3.5M or whatever it was they were asking for. Now, they could be right or you could be right, that has yet to be determined, but this is a process that every team goes through with every player. No one ever wants to pay more for a player than he’s worth to them.,

by maguro on Jan 1, 2010 7:31 PM EST up reply actions  

The point is the Pirates aren’t even willing to re-sign their own arbitration eligible players over $500,000. That’s tough to accept when they piss away nearly 9 million on Crosby, Iwamura, and Vazquez.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 7:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Doubtful

That they keep both Crosby and Vazquez after Spring Training.

"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce

by gorillakilla34 on Jan 1, 2010 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

it's not players, it's player

They let Capps walk. Many believe they made a mistake there, me included, but where I disagree with you is in your view that it is indicative of a larger issue. And I don’t think examples of the Sanchez pick and missing out on Sano support your overall argument as much as you do.

by DITO on Jan 1, 2010 10:21 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Who cares if it is "their" player or some other player that is going to give them better value?

The advantage of having a player under control is that they generally will be worth more than they are getting paid. If they no longer are worth more than they are getting paid, then it makes no difference whether they are under team control or not.

It is only the possibility that the player might get better again and be worth more than they are being paid that would entice the FO to go to arbitration for such a player. In Capp’ case, the FO decided that chance was not good enough for them to chance that.

by MarkInDallas on Jan 1, 2010 11:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Well Put

I just want to highlight this, which I think is in the background of the Capps discussion but hasn’t been as clearly stated:

The advantage of having a player under control is that they generally will be worth more than they are getting paid. If they no longer are worth more than they are getting paid, then it makes no difference whether they are under team control or not.
It’s not definitive on Capps – if he pitches well (within the bounds of his past performance), he’ll be worth more than his arb salary would have been – but it clarifies the issues nicely.

by JRoth95 on Jan 3, 2010 10:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, I have under the condition that they will sign someone better (Octavio Dotel, for example). If they don’t upgrade, I’ll join the chorus against.

by Adam Reynolds on Jan 1, 2010 10:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Man

I’m sorry I wasted so many words on you before. Your claims of being a rational human being were overblown.

by Slizeezyc on Jan 1, 2010 8:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Way to defend your position. Well done. I guess I’d get personal too if I no longer had a leg to stand on.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 8:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I couldn’t care less about your ego. But your embarrasingly weak arguments have been smashed. But as I’ve previously noted, when one takes a position and attempts to defend everything based on that decision rather than the merits of each circumstance, it’s to be expected.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 8:34 PM EST up reply actions  

It seems

you don’t get along with any one who posts on this site.

by MDBuc on Jan 1, 2010 8:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I didn’t realize I needed to make friends. I thought this was here to discuss the Pirates.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 8:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Just an observation

Most of the dialog here is civil in disagreement. Some of the best posts are JRoth and Vlad argueing various things. I don’t recall any name calling.

by MDBuc on Jan 1, 2010 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

There's a reason for that

Typically, when a person has used the extent of their rhetorical ability and can no longer successfully and intelligently attack the validity of the oppositions argument, they resort to personally attacking the person making the opposing argument.

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.

by glass0941 on Jan 1, 2010 8:58 PM EST up reply actions  

THAT'S JUST ELITIST

BIG WORDS FROM SOMEONE WHO CAN’T STAND LOSING THE ARGUMENT AND HAS TO ATTACK THE PERSON MAKING THE SUPERIOR ARGUMENT. AND MY USING ALL CAPS MAKES MY LOGIC IRREFUTARABLE.

by Trogluddite on Jan 1, 2010 9:31 PM EST up reply actions  

hahahaha

+1.

Sorry, I blame my English 102 instructor for that. Basically, if you can’t defend the argument, and you’re going to go attack the person, don’t.

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.

by glass0941 on Jan 1, 2010 9:33 PM EST up reply actions  

So glad

you got the intended sarcasm…for awhile I couldn’t find these posts and thought I’d been banned for having a bad attitude….

by Trogluddite on Jan 1, 2010 9:59 PM EST up reply actions  

It was well appreciated

The all caps literally produced a laughing out loud response

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.

by glass0941 on Jan 1, 2010 10:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Hey, thanks

I was worried that people thought I was a douche when I argue with Vlad.

I guess maybe they do, but at least MDBuc doesn’t, and that’s something!

by JRoth95 on Jan 3, 2010 10:08 PM EST up reply actions  

To echo some of the other thoughts

Generally speaking, this community has been successful because we try to not go for each other’s throats at every turn. I don’t agree with everyone on here but even when we disagree we’re cordial and still find some common ground at some point.

by Slizeezyc on Jan 1, 2010 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree

The reason I keep coming back is because we can come and share in an intelligent discussion based around the validity of one’s argument, while not having to worry about having my personal integrity attacked if someone disagrees

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.

by glass0941 on Jan 1, 2010 9:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Ha

Listen, I don’t want this to be overblown, so let me just say that I haven’t made any arguments in this thread so that’s why I wrote the checkmate thing above. I wrote a novel in the last thread detailing why I agreed and disagreed with your points.

I made the initial comment because you seem to be taking a rather serious/hostile tone with all of this because you’re still carrying over some misplaced anger from the management vs. anti-management stuff.

by Slizeezyc on Jan 1, 2010 8:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Wonderfully put.

"I choose to gamble with my life

Twice the risk, four times the prize

Nothing knocks me over"

by lighthouse913 on Jan 2, 2010 12:49 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Are we really going to go down the WAR road again? But you’re right, Ryan Theriot and Kurt Suzuki are more valuable than Andre Either and Chipper Jones.

O hi I don’t understand how WAR works.

Ryan Theriot having a better WAR than Andre Ethier doesn’t mean that he’s an overall better player. WAR is positionally adjusted. Finding a shortstop that hits .284/.343/.369 is harder than finding an outfielder who hits .272/.361/.508.

Add in the fact that Theriot is an above-average fielder for his position whereas Ethier is a below-average fielder for his, and you get an equivalant WAR.

I’m not discounting it, but it’s already been established WAR completely overvalues is.

Source?

Do I really need to support my claim Jason Bay is better than Nyjer Morgan? Really? Wow, you know less about baseball than I gave you credit.

If it would be so easy to support, why do you seem to flounder so badly at doing it? If you really think he knows so little about baseball, how about educating him instead of being a prick about it?

Way to defend your position. Well done. I guess I’d get personal too if I no longer had a leg to stand on.

Says the guy who has actually defended his position with objective data 0 times in this thread.

http://fanhuddle.com/pittsburghpirates

by Nate Rose on Jan 1, 2010 10:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Wait...

So you’re suggesting that a player in a career year could out preform Jason Bay? In a more valuable defensive position? I think you’re reach pretty far here. It’s shocking to think that statistics could reveal a player who isn’t shown hitting one clutch HR on TV is more valuable than Ethier?

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.

by glass0941 on Jan 1, 2010 10:37 PM EST up reply actions  

One more for me.

The Pirates will beat the Brewers in Milwaukee and I’ll be there and it’ll be awesome.

by IAPiratesFan on Jan 1, 2010 4:21 PM EST reply actions  

My burning question about 2010:

Who do the Pirates pick in the draft? Anthony Ranaudo? Drew Pomeranz? Someone projected in the lower rounds?

by Kidspud on Jan 1, 2010 4:33 PM EST reply actions  

Taillon or Ranaudo, assuming Harper goes first.

by thegreatchris on Jan 1, 2010 6:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I think we get Harper...

for some strabge reason. It is more of a feeling than anything else, but I think we get him. If not, I want Deck McGuire who is very underrated. Four pitches that all have a chance at grading out as plus. how many pitchers in the majors have that? I believe he steps up his game this year at Georiga Tech and supplants Ranaudo as the top college arm.

by joegonzo on Jan 1, 2010 7:08 PM EST up reply actions  

i m curious to see

how Harper is rated by teams in general. I doubt he’s the consensus top pick that SI would have him as, but I know little more than is available on the web!

by BurgherKing on Jan 1, 2010 7:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe I am dumb, but . . .

I got the impression that the Sano fiasco had more to do with personalities than money. See http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09273/1001874-63.stm

by WickD on Jan 1, 2010 4:58 PM EST reply actions  

Cannot Buy the Alderson Prediction

He was severely fatigued last year after being overworked in his first full season in HIGH A. If he didn’t completely collapse last year, I cannot see it happening this year. I think if anything he regains his luster and dominates in his 2008 fashion.

by aso513 on Jan 1, 2010 5:30 PM EST reply actions  

predictions

Andy LaRoche breaks out for 20+ homers and Tony Sanchez finishes 2010 in AAA.

Zach Duke brings back a rich haul from the Mets, Ryan Doumit from the Royal/Giants.

Justin Wilson, Jeff Locke finish strongly in AAA, Bryan Morris gets a year end start in AAA. Chase D’Arnaud, Jordy Mercer also finish in AAA.

Aaron Baker finds a ton of power.

Rose-tinted glasses, I love them!

PS: I think I am also going to give Nutting some money via Seven Springs tomorrow…

by BurgherKing on Jan 1, 2010 5:58 PM EST reply actions  

Oh and I also predict

the Pirates finish 3rd in the division behind the Cardinals and Brewers. The Cubs implode costing Hendry his job.

(Yes, yes, it was a long night of celebration yesterday)

by BurgherKing on Jan 1, 2010 6:00 PM EST up reply actions  

OMG

houksyndrome is so drunk he thinks the Grateful Dead still exist.

Or, worse, he’s been high so long that he started when they still did.

by JRoth95 on Jan 3, 2010 10:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Decent Prospect

By “decent prospect” you mean somone like Jesse Chavez? Because despite your blind optimism, that appears to be the true value of Iwamura when you look at it based on things like reality.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 6:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Or maybe an Alderson caliber prospect, since we got Alderson for Sanchez (who is the equivalent of Iwamura)

I also resent your accusation of blind optimism. I think NH and co. screwed up with Capps and they screwed up with Sano. At the same time, they have made a lot of good moves too and I like the direction we are headed.

by houksyndrome on Jan 1, 2010 6:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Your claim that Iwamura, WHO WAS JUST TRADED FOR A RELIEVER,could be flipped for a prospect of Tim Alderson’s level proves your bind optimism.

by lrhotspot on Jan 1, 2010 7:02 PM EST reply actions  

If I remember correctly,

Iwamura was going to be non-tendered by the Rays. That, and coming off a season where he was injured, was the reason why he was available to the Pirates for such a low cost.

by Kidspud on Jan 1, 2010 7:08 PM EST up reply actions  

and clearly

there was no other factor in the trade return than Iwamura’s value.

by BurgherKing on Jan 1, 2010 7:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Clearly

He’s going to take his final start from last year and turn that into 20 CGs and a 1.99 ERA this year. Duh.

by Slizeezyc on Jan 1, 2010 8:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm torn

On the one hand, I’m on the record as a Morton skeptic.

On the other, it would be awesome (and a long-overdue bit of good fortune) for Morton to break out.

On my daughter’s head is a Morton-autographed hat, so let’s hope he works out.

by JRoth95 on Jan 3, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions  

My predictions...

Bryce Harper falls to us in the draft and we get him.

ZVR starts out in West Virginia and tears the Sally apart.

Jeff Inman ends the year as one of our top 2 pitching prospects.

Andrew McCutchen hits even better than he did this year and gives the Pirates an actaul MVP candidate for years to come.

Jose Tabata has a year like he has had every year of his career so far and still ends up hitting for a high average in August with the big league club.

Kevin Hart pitches terrible and has to be released for his attitude.

Our bullpen still sucks next year until our savior Danny Moskos comes up…
and makes it even worse.

The Pirates finish with the second worst record in the majors again.

Zach Duke gets traded and Rudy Owens replaces him pitching better than Duke did.

Donnie Veal shows us that he still has control problems.(I hope this isn’t true)

Shelby Ford hits like a maniac and then gets hurt again.

Brock Holt and chase D’arnaud both climb quickly through the minors at SS.

Tony Sanchez wins minor league hitter of the year.

Clement doesn’t hit at all and we put him on our bench.

Garret Jones hits less, but shows his power was for real.

Pedro Alvarez shows up to spring training in really good shape and makes it to the majors quicker than expected with good defense and an amazing bat.

by joegonzo on Jan 1, 2010 7:24 PM EST reply actions  

About Tony Sanchez...

I meant Pirates minor league hitter of the year.

by joegonzo on Jan 2, 2010 8:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I think....

Colton Cain and Zach Von Rosenberg will become our version of Nick Barnese and Matt Moore from the Rays. Two high end high school arms that tear up Low-A.

by aso513 on Jan 1, 2010 7:36 PM EST reply actions  

Pretty good comps...

but Cain will have to really prove something to be Matt Moore and I think ZVR will do better than Barnese.

by joegonzo on Jan 1, 2010 9:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Three predictions:

1.) Alvarez, Lincoln, and Tabata are all called up sometime in June and the Pirates begin to play just under .500 after they are called up.

2.) Zack Von Rosenberg, Colton Cain, and Rudy Owens take big strides towards becoming future staples of the Pirates’ rotation. (I’ll judge Tim Alderson after seeing what happens with his delivery; It seems to me that the Pirates wait six months to adjust a pitcher’s delivery, and that mark will have passed.)

3.) Garret Jones is traded—probably to the Nationals for Drew Storen, because Mike Rizzo is nuts. Pirates fans will be “done with this team,” again.

by Kidspud on Jan 1, 2010 7:45 PM EST reply actions  

A bold prediction...

Singh and Patel make it to WV by the end of the year and actually hold their own. Singh was great in August last year, and Patel was great all year with a decent K rate and a great groundball ratio.

by aso513 on Jan 1, 2010 8:03 PM EST reply actions  

Since Predictions are Like Certin Body Parts

in that everyone has them, here’s my dos centavos.

P- The Pirates will finish fourth in the NL Central, ahead of the Astros and the Cubs.

P- Nah, they’ll finish w/in spitting distance of .500.

P- Ryan Doumit will be traded to the New York Mets by June. Unfortunately, the Mets farm system is pretty bare (based on comments by their fans), so I don’t know if we’ll get more than a bag of balls in return.

P – Zach Duke will be signed to a three-year contract extension.

P Andrew McCutchen will become a monster, keeping his average high, hitting a stunning number of doubles and triples, and finally stealing like he should.

P Lastings Milledge will be replaced by Jose Tabata in the middle of the season and become our fourth outfielder.

- I don’t do pitchers, so….

P Pedro Alvarez will struggle in AAA, causing near mutiny in the Pirate Armada. He’ll snap out of it by the end of the year, but won’t be called up to the bigs until September.

P Chris Jakubauskas and Daniel Moskos will emerge as solid relievers, leading to a JakuMoskos bobblehead night. Then they’ll both be traded to the Texas Rangers.

P The performances of the various veterans the Pirates have traded over the past couple years will collectively do little to make the Bucs regret shipping them off. Damn, I agree with this one.

P The Pirates will cut Ramon Vazquez in Spring Training, promoting Brian Bixler to play short as the 2010 season begins.

P- BucsDugout will ban posting unless you prove your sobriety by submitting breathalyzer results with your log-in.

by Trogluddite on Jan 1, 2010 9:43 PM EST reply actions  

Bixler at SS?

Did Ronny Cedeno get really into the 60s and no one ever saw him again?

by Kidspud on Jan 1, 2010 9:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Uh, yeah, about Cedeno...

Injured. No wait, regresses. Traded for Jesse Chavez, see comments above about drinking and blogging.

by Trogluddite on Jan 1, 2010 10:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Is That
P Chris Jakubauskas and Daniel Moskos will emerge as solid relievers, leading to a JakuMoskos bobblehead night. Then they’ll both be traded to the Texas Rangers.

Kind of like ManBearPig?

by Slizeezyc on Jan 1, 2010 10:01 PM EST up reply actions  

How does everybody get that...

gray-boxed quote into their replies? For us to have ManBearPig, we’d have to sign Mientkewicz again. Plus, he’d give us that much-needed veteran clubhouse leadership.

by Trogluddite on Jan 1, 2010 10:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Just

Grab the quote you want by copying it, the click the little quotes icon in the reply area, then paste the quote inside the block of code.

by Slizeezyc on Jan 1, 2010 10:09 PM EST up reply actions  

So I try it and I get....

<blockqquote you want by copying it, the click the little quotes uote>

by Trogluddite on Jan 1, 2010 10:12 PM EST up reply actions  

So I try again and get
quote you want by copying it, the click the little quotes

by Trogluddite on Jan 1, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions  

New CF by Sept

- Gorkys Hernandez finds his stroke and has a breakout year, He flys through to AAA and is called up along with Tabata in Sept. Cutch in LF, Gorkys in CF, and Tabata in RF make up a formidable OF for years to come.
- Ryan Doumit and Walker are traded to Seattle for Carlos Triunfel as a future 2B and Ian Snell to be the Buc’s closer, who learns to pitch inside finally.
- Zach Duke and Garret Jones are traded to the Texas Rangers for Tanner Scheppers and a couple lower rated prospects (C and 1B for depth).
- Andy’s defense and a breakout year moves Alvarez to 1B at AAA after the All Star break
prolonging his callup until 2011 midyear.
- Pirates pick another Sanchez as their number 1 draft pick , Victor, 3B, from San Diego.
- The march to playoffs begin 2012 with this lineup:
Gorkys – CF
Cutch – LF
LaRoche-3B
Alvarez-1B
Tabata-RF
T. Sanchez-C
Aki with Triunfel when ready – 2B
Mercer-SS

Happy New Year to everyone!!!!

by long4willie on Jan 2, 2010 1:00 AM EST reply actions  

Gorkys will only play center...

if McCutchen goes Barry Bonds on s and bulks up too much to play center himself. We would never lower his value like that. Same thing with Alvarez and first. We would move Andy to second unless Alvarez proves without a doubt that he can’t handle third. Victor Sanchez would have to pull a Tony Sanchez by having a monster year because most places don’t even think he is top 3 round material right now because of his injury last year. Zach Cox is a better option if you want a college power bat that can play third. Also, I think if Jones continues to hit and Duke doesn’t fall apart., they will be worth much more than Tanner Scheppers and a couple prospects for depth that we don’t really need if we keep drafting the same way. I would want Scheppers, a high upside arm like Wilmer Font, and a position player with some good potential. Also, why Mercer? Do you really like him more than D’arnaud or Colt?

by joegonzo on Jan 2, 2010 1:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Your first prediction is unlikely not only for the unlikelihood at this point that Gorkys becomes anything but a fourth OF, but also for the fact that there’s no way in hell the team waits until September to call up someone like Gorkys or Tabata. They’d be wasting a whole year of service time for one month of play. Usually it’s scrubs that get September callups, not top prospects.

Triunfel is one of the best prospects in baseball. It’ll take a hell of a lot more than an injury prone catcher and a failed prospect to pry him (along with a busted pitcher as a throw-in) from Seattle. Also, Huntington traded Snell TO Seattle because he wanted out of Pittsburgh. Why would we want him back?

If Garrett Jones produces like he did last year and Duke keeps pitching well, and the Pirates trade Jones and his remaining 4 1/2 years of club control (at the deadline next year) as well as Duke, and all they get is Tanner Scheppers and some low-level prospects, I’ll be mighty pissed.

Andy LaRoche moves before Alvarez does. LaRoche is even on board with this. He’s been giving Alvarez pointers for playing third.

As it stands right now, Victor Sanchez would be a HUGE reach for a first round pick. We’re talking more of a reach than Bullington was.

http://fanhuddle.com/pittsburghpirates

by Nate Rose on Jan 2, 2010 1:32 AM EST up reply actions  

Bullington and Moskos

Were projected top-20 guys unlike Victor, so it would be a MUCH bigger reach than Tony Sanchez or the other two pitchers mentioned in the subject line.

by Slizeezyc on Jan 2, 2010 1:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Just for fun, I Predict

Clement will hit better than Adam LaRoche did with the Bucs last year.

Milledge will hit .290/.355/.430.

Tabata will be hitting .320 in AAA through mid May and be called up. The Pirates will utilize a rotation system to keep players fresh where Milledge, Tabata, Jones and Clement each play about 5 days a week.

After 2 months, Clement will begin to take some reps at catcher just in case.

Kevin Hart will begin to throw more strikes and show promise. DanMac will be moved to the bullpen. Ohlie will give up less HRs and have an ERA around 3.60. Maholm will pitch better than Duke. Lincoln will come up and do reasonably well. Duke will then be traded.

Alvarez will have a 27% K/AB ratio at AAA but will come up anyway. He will have a 40% K rate in MLB and be sent back down.

Andy LaRoche will have a very solid year, hitting .285/.350/.450.

Cedeno and Crosby will duke it out in a scene reminiscent of 2009’s epic duel between Brandon Moss and Steve Pearce. There will be no clear winner.

Doumit will remain healthy and hit .300/.360/.500.

The Pirates will score 4.5 runs per game.

The bullpen will still be pretty bad and will cost the Bucs many games in the late innings, but not the 9th.

by MarkInDallas on Jan 2, 2010 4:28 AM EST reply actions  

2009’s epic duel

Snork. I’m glad my coffee had cooled down.

by MDBuc on Jan 2, 2010 8:41 AM EST up reply actions  

since it was mentioned...

…in a previous post:
Although I believe it is highly unlikely, does anyone have a wild-ass, somewhat- educated guess on how it could come to be that Bryce Harper could fall to the Pirates with the second pick?

by belfry on Jan 2, 2010 8:57 AM EST reply actions  

There aren't many ways.

Jamison Taillon or Anthony Ranuado would have to turn into Stephen Strasburg. The only other possibility is that Ted Lerner would want to save money after spending $16 million on Strasburg last season.

I think that if Harper isn’t good enough for the Nats at #1 based on talent alone, he could fall pretty far in the draft.

by Kidspud on Jan 2, 2010 11:55 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I think Nats take a college player...

because they probably think their window of opportunity for winning is around now with Stras and the Zimmermans. I doubt Stars stays after his first contract is up so they will probably want to try and win soon. A college bat like Brentz or Cox or a college arm like Ranaudo or McGuire seems likely to me.

by joegonzo on Jan 2, 2010 8:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Predictions

Just a couple….

—Aki will be the Pirates’ all-star representative
—Joel Hanrahan will emerge as the closer & do OK until he flames out in July and goes on the DL
—Garrett Jones’ BA will never rise above .240 until he is replaced in the lineup by Jose Tabata in June
—copycat prediction – Pedro Alvarez becomes the starting 1B in the middle of the season
—Paul Maholm is traded – Zach Duke and Ryan Doumit are not
—The Pirates hover about 6-8 games below .500 for most of the season before putting on a late burst to finish 79-83

by stork24 on Jan 2, 2010 11:29 AM EST reply actions  

Predictions 2

P- Jones fall apart a la Dave Kingman - .210 BA / 25 HR
P
Doumit plays 1.5 months tops before breaking a finger, or toe, or femur.
P- Bay is booed mercilessly by Mets fans by the end of July, making them miss George Foster
P- Alvarez stays in AAA until September callups.
P- Final record: 72 – 90.
P- Irhotspot ends the season agrier than he is today.

by Blyleven Curve Ball on Jan 2, 2010 11:54 AM EST reply actions  

But does lrhotspot take the time to understand how UZR works by the end of the season?

by MarkInDallas on Jan 2, 2010 12:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Nostradamus couldn’t predict that.

by Blyleven Curve Ball on Jan 2, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Coincidentally,

There is a nice article on the Yahoo! MLB page…

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.

by glass0941 on Jan 2, 2010 6:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Shots in the Dark

- Ronnie Cedeno hits 15 hr’s by the all-star break and makes the AS team along with McCutchen
- Zach Duke is traded before the season starts
- Evan Meek becomes the closer and has a banner season
- Matt Capps signs a minor league deal with someone for 2011
- Jose Tabata will disappoint in AAA (or be hurt) and not join the big club in 2010
- Andy LaRoche becomes a solid, but not spectacular, guy for 3b (.273/.330/.420)
- Pirates go 74-88

by God Loves on Jan 2, 2010 12:52 PM EST reply actions  

-1

Tabata will not disappoint, i expect him to be the best pirate prospect this year.

by C Shint on Jan 2, 2010 1:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Ha

dont praise him then when he hits the bigs and is beating all expectations.

by C Shint on Jan 2, 2010 1:20 PM EST up reply actions  

fine

say what you wish, tabata will be the next big thing for the pirates, before alvarez, lincoln or anyone else

by C Shint on Jan 2, 2010 10:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, I agree with you.

by MarkInDallas on Jan 2, 2010 11:42 PM EST up reply actions  

thanks

i needed some support, i thought i was the only tabata fan here

by C Shint on Jan 3, 2010 1:27 AM EST up reply actions  

I think he has an excellent chance to hit about .320 at Indy through mid May, be called up and hit around .300/.360/.430.

People complain about his power, but he hit at least a couple of extra base hits in the AFL that would have been HRs in PNC.

I don’t expect him to hit in double digit HRs this year, but Clemente didn’t do that until he was 25. That’s still a very productive guy to have.

by MarkInDallas on Jan 3, 2010 2:01 AM EST up reply actions  

yeah

there are other ways to produce than just hitting home runs. well have to wait and see i guess

by C Shint on Jan 3, 2010 11:18 AM EST up reply actions  

OBP is much more important

Replacing Moss’ sub .300 OBP with .350 to .370 OBP will be a big boost to the offense.

by MarkInDallas on Jan 3, 2010 2:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Agree.

That said, I still think the Pirates will want to see at least a little power before they actually call him up.

Also, why’s everyone harping on Moss? The outfield so far is pencilled in as Milledge, McCutchen and Jones, with Moss on the bench and Clement at first. Unless one of the those players get hurt or isn’t productive, it’s not like Moss will be getting a lot of plate appearances.

http://fanhuddle.com/pittsburghpirates

by Nate Rose on Jan 3, 2010 4:21 PM EST up reply actions  

if they were smart

they would trade jones. selling high is always a good thing, with tabata, hernandez, moss all potential OFs id rather get something in return for jones who does not figure in to future plans here.

by C Shint on Jan 3, 2010 4:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Gotta disagree here

There’s nothing that I have seen from Hernandez or Moss that says they have more than a small fraction of the chance that Jones has of putting up impressive offensive numbers.

There’s also no reason to think that Jones will fall off the map in 2010. His improvement has been incremental over the last several years and is likely to be a pretty good hitter for at least several years.

Also, there’s no reason to think that any team is going to give up A+ prospects for Jones because they are all skeptical as you are that he can repeat his success.

by MarkInDallas on Jan 3, 2010 6:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Looks like Raynor is more likely to be in than Moss because according to the team he can play all 3 OF positions (although I think Moss could as well).

by Adam Reynolds on Jan 3, 2010 4:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree. Moss is likely to be the odd man out. There’s a decent chance he will be released.

by MarkInDallas on Jan 3, 2010 6:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Mark...

I wouldn’t use Clemente’s HR totals before age 25 as a comparison for Tabata’s ability (or lack of) to hit HRs. Or any of our other youngsters. Clemente was at a distinct home field disadvantage. Forbes Field was called by several press types “a coal mine with seats”. And of course, we are talking about a Hall of Fame player. I’d think it’s a little too early to say Tabata is going to be that good.

Forbes dimensions during Roberto’s days…per ballparks.com.
LF 365…with a 27 foot high scoreboard…otherwise 12 foot wall
LCF 457
CF 435
RCF gradual drop from 408 to 375
RF 300…but with a 28 foot screen on top of a 9 1/2 foot wall.

In 15 1/2 seasons at Forbes…he hit 86 HR…or about 5 1/2 a season….1 every 13 home games. He hit 13 HR at home (in 315 games) in his first 5 seasons…turned 25 in his 5th season(1959), finally hit double digits for a season in 1960. And most of his power was left center to right center. Even Willie Stargell…he of the 475 HRs…only hit 74 in almost 500 games at Forbes…over 6 seasons worth of games…even with the relatively short porch in RF.

On the other hand…
PNC Park dimensions
LF 325 with a VERY low fence
LCF 389
Notch 410
CF 399
RCF 375
RF 320 with a 21 foot screen/wall

For instance…Cutch had 8 HR at PNC. NONE of the HR in his 3 HR game would have been out of Forbes Field.

A MUCH different game in Roberto’s day.

Trivia question…how many HRs were hit over the wall near the 457 foot sign (around where they kept the batting cage) in Forbes Field in 61 years??

Answer…ONE. Dick Stuart on 6/5/1959.

by Thunder on Jan 3, 2010 11:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I'm not saying Tabata's HOF bound just yet. :-)

Never the less, Clemente was generally a line drive high average hitter just like Tabata. His road HR totals were not that much higher than his Forbes Field totals.

Truthfully, Clemente wasn’t HOF bound Clemente until his year 25 season.

by MarkInDallas on Jan 4, 2010 12:37 AM EST up reply actions  

Clemente...and others...

played in some BIG Parks.

I’ve already talked about Forbes…
Connie Mack/Shibe Park (Phillies) 447 to CF
Polo Grounds (Giants thru 1957) 480 to CF…although I note if you hit the ball down the lines you could get a cheapie HR. Then you get Seals Stadium for 2 years before going to the monstrosity that was Candlestick.
Busch I (Cardinals thru 1966) 426 to CF.

Stadia today are relative bandboxes compared to the old days (up to about 1970). Playing 100+ games a year in some of these places (77 home plus 22 to 33 in other caverns)…didn’t lead to high HR totals.

I will agree that the light switch in Roberto’s head seemed to come on offensively in his 1960 season that he started at age 25.

My main point was that just looking at raw numbers such as Clemente’s offensive totals for his first 5 years needed to be taken within the context of the stadia in which he played…which were far different than those of today…especially if he is to be used as a comparison.

by Thunder on Jan 4, 2010 9:50 AM EST up reply actions  

I believe that

Roberto was challenged to hit more HRs that year by the manager. Wasn’t there something about that he should just “swing harder”?

by MarkInDallas on Jan 4, 2010 11:38 PM EST up reply actions  

All I can say is I'm planing what game I want to go to for my B-Day

Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: DIck Lebeau, Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Chris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"If you give Arians a fullback, he won’t use one. Instead, he insists on using Matt Spaeth, who probably doesn’t cast a shadow because it would require blocking sunlight." Cliff harris is still a punk with some very true words

by WVPiratesfan on Jan 4, 2010 11:26 AM EST reply actions  

The best prediciton

is that "Few fans who say “I’M DONE WITH THIS TEAM” will, in fact, be done with the team"

It’s entirely true. Let’s face it, if we all made it this far, we aren’t going anywhere now!!

by jjschmid72 on Jan 5, 2010 2:04 PM EST reply actions  

Is it really going to matter?

Unless we are about to see the 2nd coming of Christ, I really don’t think it’s going to make much difference who plays where. This team has very little power, has poor management, and little money to work with. Honestly although I am a fan, I can see another 15 years of being sub .500. When we do get a player worth keeping we sell him off faster than a 50 cent hooker on payday for “prospects” which in most cases are players nobody else wants. Oh wait….maybe we can have another “contest” and sign the best to a pro contract…where can we host one this time…Anartica?

by classicrockcpl15824@yahoo.com on Jan 27, 2010 1:20 PM EST reply actions  

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