UPDATE: Pirates, Ryan Church Reach Agreement
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jan 11, 2010 3:59 PM EST
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UPDATE: The Post-Gazette actually says the Pirates would mostly use Church as a reserve and an insurance policy, which would be better than I imagined below. I still wonder how they're going to distribute playing time between Church and Clement, though.
UPDATE II: The deal is done. Church will take a physical later this week, after which the contract will be finalized. No word yet on the money involved.
I'm fine with this, I suppose; unlike some of the other options the Bucs have considered, Church is an unambiguously decent player. His hitting is fine, if uninspiring, and it always has been; his defense is solid enough even for center field; he has a great arm; and he's not old. The only problem is that he's a bit of an injury magnet.
The trick is where he would fit in. The two positions the Pirates have unsettled are first and right, with Garrett Jones slotting into one of those positions. If the Pirates sign Church, he would presumably take the bulk of the playing time in right, with Jones moving to first. The problem is that both Jones and Church are lefties, and so are Jeff Clement and Brandon Moss, who are the next two guys down the depth chart at those positions. Unless the Pirates still think Clement can catch, it looks like it would be very tough for them to find playing time for him unless Jones or Church falters.
The real loser if Church signs might be Moss, who might not even make the team. Moss was stretched as a starter, but as a good defender with some offensive skills (that, admittedly, Pirates fans haven't seen yet), he'd be a fine fourth outfielder. With a glut of lefty hitters already competing for playing time, though, the right-handed John Raynor looks like a much better option as a backup. An even better choice for the bench might be Steve Pearce--Church is a fine hitter, but he probably should sit against lefties, and Pearce can punish lefties. Moss is out of options, though, so he has to make the team or the Pirates risk losing him.
I appreciate that Church is a pretty good player, and it's a positive, all things considered, to have pretty good players. But I'm curious about how the Pirates would handle Clement, who I'd like to see get a clean shot at some playing time. And while I wouldn't lose sleep over a backup like Moss, I'd also be curious to see how John Russell handles the mess of left-handed hitters. If the Pirates sign Church, the fact that he's usually either effective or hurt might be a blessing in disguise: when he's on the field, he'll be good, and when he needs to sit out, the Pirates can play Clement.
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I don't see it that way...
I think they are looking for Church to be a fourth OF with Jones and Clement starting. He will also be a Plan B if any one of our several unproven youngsters falter: Jones, Milledge, Clement, etc. This seemingly does not look good for Moss but is it possible that DY is on the bubble? He is limited defensively and I do see a very high offensive ceiling for him earlier. He can play the 2B/3B but then again so can I so I don’t see his versatility as a huge positive. At least Moss plays pretty good defense. I agree with you that Raynor is intriguing and so his Pearce given that we lack right handed hitters. Overall, I don’t mind the signing if he doesn’t take AB’s from Clement until Clement proves he doesn’t deserve them.
I wonder if we can work out a trade for Raynor?
I have little faith that Russell will be a guy who’s willing to give Clement an extended shot when he has other options available with Church. I thought that early in 2009 they really needed to give Andy LaRoche an extended shot, and although he wound up getting it, Russell didn’t seem willing. If you remember early in the season when LaRoche made a few errors in the first couple games and started off 0-20 or whatever, Russell would consistently bench him for games and pull him for Vazquez late in other ones. It was only when Wilson missed time for a couple stretches in late April and early May and Vazquez was forced into the SS spot that they finally just let Andy play through everything.
You can argue either way on Andy LaRoche’s season, but I don’t think anyone will say that getting Vazquez time was more important than at least seeing what Andy could do out there, and Russell was still reluctant to do so.
Maybe JR gave him a few too many games off, but when a young player’s struggling the way LaRoche was, I don’t much judge a manager for giving him some days off. The guy was a mess, and it’s not clear that endless bad starts were what he needed.
I think JR is less prone than either of his predecessors to giving vets playing time at the expense of promising youth.
I'll second that.
I shutter to think what would have happened if McClendon was still filling out the lineup card. He was allergic to young players.
My problem
with JR is that he doesn’t seem to have a clue about playing percentages. For instance, Jones and Pearce seemed to be a perfect platoon complement last year, they both mash the handers they’re supposed to mash, they both play (at least try to) RF and 1B, yet Jones flailed against lefties and Pearce sat.
Also
many of you here have noted his penchant for benching a guy in a hot streak. I think he has a preconceived map in his head of who he wants to play when, regardless of what sense it makes, and will follow it no matter the actual results on the field.
Can't have it both ways though
If you want to play a hot streak, you’re going to have to ignore the platoon percentages sometimes. Perhaps often. GFJ might be an interesting study. Would his rate stats have been even better if he hadn’t played against lefties? Or, was he able to stay hot generally, by being in the lineup every day, staying sharp, even if the results were well below when he faced righties?
I'll give him a pass for one year.
Lefties sometimes learn to hit better against LHP with increased reps, but if he does it again this year, he’s giving away runs.
I was just going to note
that Pearce had twice as many ABs against RHPs last year (and couldn’t hit ’em a lick) as he did vs. LHPs (which “mash” maybe is too strong a word but still OPSed .867 — granted, in 63 PAs).
Yeah, Vlad, it’s not like we have a choice, is it? So he gets a pass. But as we (hopefully) move closer to competence, if not contention, then I think we need to scrutinize what the manager does with the tools he’s been given. So far, I don’t see where JR is givimg LaRussa a run in the brains department.
He's doing some things right.
Being careful about pitcher workloads is big. So is not over-managing, as far as sac bunts and the hit-and-run and such are concerned.
Maybe
the pitch count and workload thing is a command from above? That seems to be a hard-and-fast thing systemwide. I know of at least one game in which JR seemed a bit overly worried about Duke’s pitch count.
Do his teams hit-and-run? I have maybe three brain cells left but at least two of them can’t remember much of it. Could be because in order to hit and run, you have to have players who can a) hit b) get on base and c) run.
Strikes 1, 2 and 3.
Not having payers who could hit, get on base, or run...
…never stopped McClendon from calling for a hit-and-run, did it? Knowing that your guys don’t have the skills to pull off a particular tactic, and planing accordingly, is a skill.
Similarly, we were above league average in both SB and SB% this year, suggesting that Russell did a good job of leveraging the team’s speed into runs on the bases.
the last thing we need is another average lefty hitting 4th outfielder
I can’t believe the holes we have in the bullpen, were letting talents like Chapman sign with division rivals, and all were worried about is signing Brandon Moss’ older clone. Church has absolutely no power potential; the only person we should be going after right now for the outfield is Ankiel. Unlike Church; Ankiel has 20-30 HR power potential in PNC Park, and has stellar defense for right field especially with his arm. Moss, and Raynor should compete for the 4th outfield spot with the advantage going to Raynor, because I believe he has a higher ceiling, and he hits from the right side. Doumit should be traded, and Clement should be given a shot to catch again. Garrett Jones should be our first basemen.
The bullpen should be coming
Dejan said last night that he believes the Pirates will indeed sign Octavio Dotel. They could also be in on Carrasco as well. If Dotel is signed, things will begin to shape up.
by MarkInDallas on Jan 11, 2010 8:13 PM EST up reply actions
"Absolutely no power potential"?
Church has a career ISO of .169. That’s not a huge bopper, but it’s not exactly Rafael Belliard, either. And in terms of putting actual runs on the board, Church’s 34-point OBP edge on Ankiel should more than make up for the power difference between the two.
Clement probably will get at least a look as a catcher, but it’s very much an open question whether his knees will let him play the position on more than an occasional basis these days.
I have no idea what the Chapman signing has to do with Church.
Just for reference on the power thing:
Xavier Nady’s career ISO is .178. Does Nady also have “absolutely no power potential”?
not really
assuming church goes on the bench, it might mean 2 things:
1. The Pirates are content to let Tabata play the year in AAA.
2. They are planning on trading Moss, or working out a way to send Raynor to AAA.
I think Cutch, Milledge and Jones are settled in the OF. Church will crowd the bench battle.
not really
they will get no trade return on moss so whatever they can trade him idc. Tabata is projected to be ready this season for a summer call up so if raynor is here we still have jones, cutch, milledge, church, raynor…5guys/3spots, could even be 6 guys a la moss/tabata
agree on the trade front… i dont think they can get anything at all for moss, which is why i thought they’d give him a shot this year.
Even though Tabata’s projected to be ready, I wouldnt be surprised if he isnt brought up, till the power appears.
It's possible that he'll be ready.
But it’s not even close to a given at this point. And if he IS called up, it probably won’t be until midseason, so we’ll need someone else to carry the position until then anyway.
I think this just shows that management is confident that Clement can catch full time again (I don’t think they would’ve traded for him if they did’nt think he could still catch). I think they want Jones at first base full time, Clement catching (trade Doumit), and a couple of guys fighting for playing time in right field until Tabata is ready…
by FusilliJerry88 on Jan 11, 2010 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
doubt it
could be that they are thinking about it now, but I sincerely doubt they’d ask Clement to catch full time again…
Clement catching again...
depends on him a) staying healthy all-season and b) working on catching all off-season. I read a QA and with a player development person from the Mariners and he was confident that Clement could be a good defensive catcher. He stated that Clement just needs more innings because he lost so much developmental time due to injuries.
That said...
I have no idea what NH’s plan is for him but I iknow I’d like him a lot better behind the plate.
full time/part time
I think management really likes what our lineup looked like last year espeically defensively with Jaramillo in it, so I think that gives them even more confidence in giving Clement the full time catching job knowing that they can give him many days off, because we have a very capable back up in Jaramillo.
On a normal week the Pirates will play 6 games a week; If Clement catches 3-4 of those, and plays 1-2 at first base…thats how I would manage Clement. He can be your full time catcher, but he won’t be catching double-headers, and day games following a night game…
WE NEED TO TRADE DOUMIT
by FusilliJerry88 on Jan 11, 2010 7:23 PM EST up reply actions
Just stop
It’s not happening. Clement is not playing catcher — it has been said.
Actually...
Huntington said that if Clement was able to stay healthy and show that his knees are fine that he would get another look at catcher. He also said he didn’t know if that would be as a full time catcher or catching 1-2 per week or at all. Health again is the issues.
As far as Clement is concerned, he wants to play so he’ll play anywhere but he views himself as a catcher and wants to return to the position. Whether it happens or not remains to be seen but I wouldn’t dismiss it as definitively as you are.
And...
Jaramillo is not a better catcher defensively than Doumit. He is much worse at blocking balls in the dirt and blocking the plate on scoring attempts.
by MarkInDallas on Jan 11, 2010 7:51 PM EST up reply actions
fJerry, Clement will never catch again. The chance of that happening is about the same as Walker being an everyday major leaguer on a team above .500. It is just not going to happen’ ever.
Paul
"I choose to gamble with my life
Twice the risk, four times the prize
Nothing knocks me over"
by lighthouse913 on Jan 11, 2010 11:10 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
wow lighthouse, did’nt know you could predict the future…you mean to tell me then that we traded away Jack, and Snell for organizational depth? The key piece in that deal was Clement, and they would’nt have traded for him if they thought he could’nt catch again.
by FusilliJerry88 on Jan 12, 2010 5:38 AM EST up reply actions
Posted above as well...
Huntington said that if Clement was able to stay healthy and show that his knees are fine that he would get another look at catcher. He also said he didn’t know if that would be as a full time catcher or catching 1-2 per week or at all. Health again is the issues.
As far as Clement is concerned, he wants to play so he’ll play anywhere but he views himself as a catcher and wants to return to the position. Whether it happens or not remains to be seen but I wouldn’t dismiss it as definitively as you are.
2. They are planning on trading Moss, or working out a way to send Raynor to AAA.
doesn’t raynor have to stay in pittsburgh for the year, or he goes back to fla. and they pay us 25 g’s
by karreemofwhite on Jan 11, 2010 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
I believe he has to be offered back, but the team he was selected from could opt to trade him too, if they wish (like with Evan Meek). There might be a waiver process though where other teams have a shot- I m not too clear on the exact rules.
It works like this:
Rule 5 picks must first clear waivers. If they’re claimed, it’s just like the claiming team had drafted them instead of the waiving team. They go on the 25-man roster, and are subject to the usual Rule 5 restrictions for the rest of the year. If they’re not claimed, they’re offered back to their original org for $25k. If the original team doesn’t want to pay, the drafting team can then send the player down on an outright assignment without repercussions (assuming that it’s the player’s first outright assignment – if not, he can decline it and declare free agency). If the original team pays, then those two teams can work out a subsequent deal for the player if both are amenable, either in a trade or a straight sale. If the original team doesn’t want to sell/trade him, they can then send the player down on an outright assignment without repercussions (assuming that it’s his first outright assignment, as per above).
let's not forget
It’s nice to have a bench player in case of injuries too ya know. You want someone who you could play for an extended period of time if need be. Would Ryan Church be better off the bench than Brandon Moss? I don’t know, but it would be nice to have both right?
Problem is...
we most likely won’t have both. Someone has to go whether it’s Moss, Young, Pearce, Raynor, Crosby or Vasquez. We have a lot of options for the bench right now. Crosby isn’t going anywhere and neither is Church (most likely) which means the last two bench spots (not including JJ) would come down to Vasquez, Moss, Pearce, Young or Raynor. Out of those four I’d like to see us keep Raynor or one of Pearce/Moss. It will be interesting to see what happens but there is a good chance Moss will not make the team.
wow could that possibly be a good signing?
wow im amazed that we might actually sign a half decent player. this could be a good signing if they didnt over pay. I would much rather see us sign church as opposed to ankeil. Church could possibly be like xavier nady, a good player with tons of injury trouble.
as for what to do with so many lefties, well i would like to keep moss and see if someone could teach him how to hit. id rather see DY go. he doesnt have much use, same with pearce, pearce is even more useless with jones and clement here to play 1st.
Delwyn Young is as good as gone
but what would make you rather see Church in a pirate uniform rather than Rick Ankiel?
I personally would rather see us use whatever money we would use to sign Church or Ankiel to sign a reliever, but what do we need a reliever for if were being blown out by the sixth inning anyway with Church, Delwyn Young, Pearce in the starting lineup, and Doumit on the DL as usual…
Church...
is a better fit for us and arguably the better player. Let’s take a look at some stats from each players career avg and 2009 in which both players are coming off down years (both reportedly due in part to injury).
wOBA OPS BB% K% UZR/150 OF UZR/150 RF
Ankiel: .327/.288 .763/.672 7.7%/6.5% 25.8%/26.6% -4.0 2045 innings +6.1 383 innings
Church: .341/.317 .787/.722 9.3%/8.4% 23.5%/16.2% +5.7 3780 innings +14.2 1636 innings
IMO, Church is better offensively, better defensively and doesn’t won’t block Clement from getting AB’s. Ankiel wants a 3 year deal and to be a regular. I would much rather see Church get 400 AB’s with the Bucs. I really don’t want any part of Ankiel.
Well that sucks...
I guess you can’t space out columns with the space bar. That was much easier to read when I typed it.
I think it would be Moss who is as good as gone. At the very least D Young has shown he can hit off the bench. I can’t imagine Moss trying to fill in at an infield spot. With Young in an infield spot, it may be ugly, but Moss? Maybe I am misunderstanding what you mean. Paul
"I choose to gamble with my life
Twice the risk, four times the prize
Nothing knocks me over"
by lighthouse913 on Jan 11, 2010 11:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Apropos of nothing, Moss was originally drafted as a 2B.
He played 31 games there in rookie ball, plus one at 3B, before getting moved to the OF in his second season.
I very much doubt he could play 2B up to ML standards at this point. That said, I’m not optimistic about Young’s chances of ever doing so, either. There’s a reason both were moved off of the position by their original teams…
Being drafted as a 2B is often an indictment of the guy’s defensive skill right off the bat. You’ll notice that very few major leaguers were drafted as second basemen, and many of the ones who were have moved to other positions. Playing 2B as an amateur often means you weren’t athletic enough to handle SS on an amateur team, which is kind of a red flag about the guy’s fielding ability.
I should've been more clear.
Moss was originally drafted with the intention of him playing 2B. He was a SS in high school, prior to the draft (as seen in MLB’s pick-tracker here).
From the scouting report (“Same body type as Greg Maddux. Very athletic. Quick arm. Fastball occasionally runs to arm side, occasionally cuts, occasionally bores. Curve flashes tight rotation. Tries to turn over sinking change. Just goes out there and throws it.”), the Bureau apparently expected him to be taken as a pitcher, Which makes sense, I guess, given his arm strength.
Check out Jeff Salazar going seven picks in front of Moss, too.
What makes you think...
…we aren’t also going to sign additional relievers? It’s not like there’s a signing freeze at the end of the week.
Yet another "Good" player
Adding Church makes no sense. The Bucs have plenty of guys who can hit for a decent average. We need power/rbi potential. Give Clement a legit shot at first with Jones in right. Signing Church writes off Moss which I am not willing to do.
I don't think Church...
will stop Clement from getting AB’s. I believe this is the reason NH prefers him to Ankiel. For the record Church’s career OPS and wOBA is better than Ankiel’s. Power isn’t the only way to score runs.
I don't disagree...
but I hope Clement gets a fair shot. Hell, we gave up a pretty significant package to get him and I don’t think NH will let him rot on the bench.
Actually, Huntington wanted Ankiel...
but didn’t want to guarantee playing time. He wanted someone to be a fall back option if Clement and possibly Tabata are not producing right away.
Once he pulled back from Ankiel, then Church became the target.
I think this shows that management will be less tolerant of letting rookies “play into” the position like they did with Andy, Moss, DY and Pearce. Basically, they had no other options to fall back on to stop the losing. Now they will have something.
by MarkInDallas on Jan 11, 2010 8:01 PM EST up reply actions
Can’t quibble with this signing. Church will enter 2010 as Pittsburgh’s most established Major League outfielder and (if it’s a one-year deal) he’s not blocking anyone long-term. His power disappeared last season, but some of that might have been Citi Field. Moss was abysmal and certainly shouldn’t be guaranteed a roster spot. Jones and Milledge deserve a shot at regular playing time to start the season, but nobody knows what they’re going to do. Church is a strong candidate for a bounce back season. He won’t make an All-Star team, but .I don’t think .280/.350/.450 is far-fetched. The Pirates can use that.
The most important thing is
Church has a very solid history of good OBP, even if he doesn’t hit with a ton of power. He was actually pretty decent with the Braves last year – .347 OBP, and even with the Mets he was a career low .332 OBP, which is still league average.
That’s a huge improvement on the scrubs we threw out there last year. Church was actually above replacement value, so using him as a push for Clement and Tabata sets a minimum bar for them to attain to stick in the starting lineup.
by MarkInDallas on Jan 11, 2010 11:35 PM EST up reply actions
Runs are runs.
20 runs’ worth of average are worth the same a 20 runs’ worth of power.
Teams don’t “need” any power at all, except insofar as hitting for power is an efficient way to generate runs. But if they can generate the same number of runs through other means, they aren’t losing anything.
L/R, who cares?
Many may disagee and probably with good reason, but imo the whole lineup can be left handed next year if those are the best players available.
I understand wanting both righty and lefty options on the bench, but if management thinks Church/Clement/Jones are a much better bet for success than Pearce/Raynor, then handedness shouldn’t matter for a team in the Pirates’ position.
If Church is signed Moss would certainly seem like the odd man out at least in the short term.
i disagree on left/right- i think you do need some platoon advantage esp off the bench. I dont think however adding Church affects that much. As of now, the only lefties are Jones, Clement and Iwamura in the starting lineup.
Wrt the bench, I agree if Church comes on, its likely the end of the road for Moss- so the LH balance doesnt change.
Need a righty
All the PBC has got from the right side is Pearce, who may not cut it. Vlad makes a lot of sense with his data – it almost guarantees that Pearce’s numbers against LHP will drop.
And the PBC has gotta have a righty to platoon with Jones – he just ain’t a ML batter against LHP.
As a LH hitter, Church is just superfluous. Can you see JR rest Jones for him?
no
however, all i was saying is that if church replaces moss, nothing in the balance of LH/RH changes.
Pearce's numbers against RHP could also rise.
There’s nothing to say that either one is his true level at this point.
by MarkInDallas on Jan 11, 2010 8:03 PM EST up reply actions
They could, but probably not for the PBC.
I don’t see Pearce getting many AB’s against RHP this year. Too many lefties.
I get what you’re saying BK – I just like to see PBC have more RH 1B/OF choices than Pearce this year. Not that I’m predicting failure – just that more choice from the right side is better than less.
Isn’t Myrow gone? I thought I saw that he signed with another club.
by MarkInDallas on Jan 11, 2010 8:50 PM EST up reply actions
No, he’s still around. You might be thinking of Tagg Bozied.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jan 11, 2010 8:52 PM EST up reply actions
I think you are probably right about Pearce
But if something happens to Clement or Jones – like one of them gets hurt – then Pearce will come back into the picture.
by MarkInDallas on Jan 11, 2010 8:52 PM EST up reply actions
Pearce's numbers against RHP probably WILL rise.
But not as much as his numbers against LHP will fall.
The easiest (and most accurate) thing to do is to generate a likely overall line from his past ML and upper-minors performances, and then break it out along the 1.09 ratio to get estimated splits for your prediction.
Understood
I just think giving as much playing time as possible to whoever you think has a better chance to develop into a good player is a lot more important than gaining platoon advantage in 2010. If this proves to be a playoff team in 2010 then I’ll be wrong.
Numbers Don't Lie
The Bucs were 14th in HRs, 14th in RBIs, and 14th in ERA. We need an upgrade in everything. Church is just more of the same.
I believe NH...
is hoping the power will come from players like Laroche, Milledge, Clement and Cutch continuind to develop. That coupled with a full season of Garret imitating 2009 Garret and a healthy Doumit. Church is being signed as a bench player and fall back option in case any of the guys I mentioned above take steps backwards. If Ankiel signed it would be for the same reason so any OF we sign this off season was not likely to be of the variety that will change our year end totals dramtically in any of the categories you mention. Church, however, will provide above average defense though in your defense so did Moss last year. I think Moss will get a chance to prove himself but he should come to spring training ready to perform. I just don’t see Moss hitting enough to even be an effective fourth OF.
not worried
there are other ways to score then from the long ball (although its nice). we can score more run with more speed all season long with mccutchen all year. my worry is the era, our pitchers are still not special.
I look for more of the same overall...
out of our starting pitching. I look for Morton and Maholm to improve from last season and I expect Ohlendorf and Duke will regress. The question mark for me at this point is #5: Hart vs McCutchen. I personally would rather see Hart in the pen with McCutchen 2.0 getting the last spot. OF cours if McCutchen can perform solidly in the 5th spot I suppose overall our rotation would improve. We gave up a lot of bad innings to Snell, VV and the like last year.
RBI is a pretty useless stat within a team context.
At a minimum, you should use runs scored instead, to account for runs that score in non-RBI situations.
It’s pretty cool that the Pirates have enough semi-decent options that it’s tough to find places to play for everyone.
I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.
by Chester J Lampwick on Jan 11, 2010 5:56 PM EST reply actions
Yeah but that’s different from even three years ago when they were crap on paper and crap on the field.
I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.
by Chester J Lampwick on Jan 12, 2010 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
Done deal
According to Dejan, pending a physical. The physical will not be routine given Church’s back problems last year.
The back is a significant concern...
…but I’d worry more about his post-concussion problems from ’08.
This is my favorite signing since NH took over.
Church is a nice stepping stone from signing guys with no potential future in the organization like Rivas, Gomez, Randa, HInske, Burnitz, and the like.
He’ll be a great fourth outfielder and backup first baseman. Probably the best bat off the bench, too.
i was about to ask for projections :)
i hope its under 1 year 2.5M.
i m guessing 1 year 2M with a club option for another year at 3M
Arbitration eligible
We wouldn’t need an option as Church would be arbitration eligible. If we would want to keep him, we would just offer arbitration.
Nothing wrong with an option, though.
If it’s lower than his probable arb award, they could pick it up, and if it’s not, they could decline it and then offer him the arb tender.
Church is a Sound Back-up for Moss, who...
…apparently had some medical problems due to an allergic reaction to a skin care product (I think it was made the Tone company). It was so bad, he had to cover his legs to protect them and during the last week, he was frequently ill suddenly and had to race off for treatment, leaving only his bat and glove at his locker. That’s right, he’d be needed to pinch-hit, and someone would race into the clubhouse to find him, but his locker would be empty – it was just a Rawlings, Tone, gaitors – no Moss….
Another story that the ultra liberal/conservative press is trying to hide from you.
He’s clearly better (if healthy) than Jeff Francoeur, who he was traded for last year and who Omar Minaya actually sees as a full-time starting RF. When you look at it this way, it isn’t too bad.
Great, he’s better than someone Omar Minaya thinks is good. :)
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jan 11, 2010 10:57 PM EST up reply actions
You're killing me
Literally. I’ve got a gun at my temple right now. How does Church compare with Armando Rios?
I was thinking he’s a fourth OF for us, but he could be a capable starter as well. His career offense compares to irreplacable talent like Xavier Nady and Nate McLouth.
by Adam Reynolds on Jan 11, 2010 11:07 PM EST up reply actions
Not enough changes yet to make any difference
The front office did not make much of a dent in the lack of run scoring ability of this team thus far during the off season. Aki shouldn’t hit much better than DY, and none of the current OF, other than Church, has changed. I look for Jones to be shipped out (should make a big splash with the loyal fan base!!) to free up room for Clement and Pearce at 1st and maybe get a #5 starter in return. Also, Doumit to go by trade deadline (hopefully before an injury and with a big first half – Clement to catch) for another prospect or two. No offense, decent starting pitching, and no relievers (at this point) mean a season similiar to last year’s. Just the facts until Tabata and Pedro come to town and better SPs. 2012 should be the year that the pieces of the puzzle start to fit. Go Bucs.
I disagree
The main problem with the offense last year – even with Freddy – was OBP. Freddy’s OBP during July was .220 and DY’s was .273 after Freddy left. Iwamura has .350+ OBP every year.
Church has an above average OBP as well. It has been .338+ every year. So, if Clement or Tabata doesn’t hit as well as that, at least we’ve got a baseline to stop the badness.
These moves won’t solve all the problems, but combined with a Doumit rebound, will really help the offense more than you might believe.
by MarkInDallas on Jan 12, 2010 12:07 AM EST up reply actions
Question along these lines
If Cedeno craters, can Crosby provide offense comparable to what Ronny did for us last season?
What I like about this team relative to last year’s is that I see fewer gaping holes, and more depth, but Cedeno strikes me as the big unknown – his performance here was clearly unusual for him, and if he regresses to his worst season, then he’s just a half step above Bix.
Good question about Crosby.
Crosby’s OB has generally been around .300 whereas Cedeno’s has been way up and down. It seems like a decent bet to say the SS position should give us around .300 OBP in the 8th spot.
If we can just have that one spot besides pitcher being that low, that will be a big improvement. In fact, there’s a good chance we’ll have 6 to 7 above average OBP batters in the lineup most games instead of 3 to 5 like we were limping along with last year.
by MarkInDallas on Jan 12, 2010 2:58 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not particularly optimistic about Crosby's bat.
He’s mostly just a glove to throw into the gap between 2B and 3B if Cedeno can’t hack it.
Maybe I'm looking at this the wrong way.. but
I think NH signed Church for two main reasons
(Bear with me on these)
A. The Present
B. The Future
Obviously he can’t be signed for the past so the thought on everyone’s mind is.. “Truth (my names too dang long, so lets just go with Truth), isn’t there all that is.” And I would reply “Why yes, yes it is.”
Moving on… The fact of the reality is, even with all the potential and promise at both the ML level (Milledge, LaRoche, Morton, Cutch) and in the minors… its mainly just that, potential. Looking at the lineup card, our veterans are Duke, Maholm, and Doumit, with guys like Milledge and LaRoche being our “more experienced players.”
We have so many unknowns and question marks, that bringing some stability and a known quantity to Pittsburgh, especially if its cheap and short-term, is a nice positive.
For the future, we can all speculate as to who will play where, etc.. and while yes a negative could arise if guys like Clement lose playing time, and it seems to put Moss and DY on the back burner and possibly off the team, ultimately it gives you another guy who isn’t really considered part of the future… SO if he does have a good back bounce season, maybe he becomes part of the future, or is traded for part of the future.
Personally, I would hope that between Jones, Church, and Moss… if any one of them gets enough PT to play exceptionally well, we should shop them as hard as we can.
It’s, at least in my opinion, another low risk – maybe not high, but better reward, trade.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 12, 2010 1:25 AM EST reply actions
Where's the Upgrade
I just don’t see Church as a significant upgrade over Moss or Young. Add Van E plus Rule5 pick Raynor and you have five mid grade or lower reserve outfirlders
Really...
Church has been much better than both Moss and Young. If you assume that Church’s down year was a result of injury and if healthy should approach his career norms this year, then it’s a no brainer on both counts when considering Moss’ offensive shortcomings and Young’s defensive shortcomings. The only way you can’t see this as the obvious upgrade it is, is if a) you are expecting major breakouts for both players or b) you don’t think Church will return to form. It’s possible, I just don’t see Moss or Young having a season better than Church when looking at overall offensive/defensive value to the team. I wasn’t too impressed with either players offensive potential…at least Moss played good defense. If Moss reaches his ceiling he likely will be comparable to Church (at least OPS wise).
To follow an earlier post
Ryan Church had a 2009 wOBA of .317, career .341. Moss 2009 wOBA was .289, career .301. Delwyn Young had a 2009 WOBA of .316, career .318. In terms of OPS: Church 2009 .722. career .787. Moss 2009 .668, career .722. Young 2009 .707, career .713.
A quick defensive comparision using career UZR/150 for the players in RF: Church 14.2 (19.6 2009), Moss 5.7 (12.2 2009), Young -6.9 (-10.0 2009 with Pirates)
In Church’s bad season last year he had a better wOBA and OPS than both Young and Moss so he is the better offensive player. He is better defensively than both according to UZR/150. The only thing he doesn’t offer is upside but I personally don’t see Moss or Youn’s offensive ceiling to better than Church’s career averages which I think he will return to if he is healthy.
All Our Points Are Moot
2010 is not going to be a good year. The Bucs will not break .500 with or without Church so unless he is a 3 – 5 year guy what’s the point. Church/Moss/Young are all placeholders for Tabata. If we were acquiring a 25+ HR potential with long term options I’d be all for it
Well...
I believe you are right about that. I think Church on the team over Moss or Young is likely to net us 1-2 wins tops. But having a player like Church step in and provide stability should one of our other options fail may net us 5-6 wins. It still is important for the team, if not the city, to try and win as many games as possible. If this is the “core” we are moving forward with (and I believe once Alvarez, Tabata and Lincoln get here it will be) at some point you have to start moving forward in the wins columns. Given that Moss and Young are not going to be fixtures on the next good team I don’t see a real problem with this move.
Besides, these guys are all reserves. What kind of player are you looking to add who’d be willing to accept a bench role?
Neil Huntington wants to make clear, visible progress next year at the MLB level, which is making significant movement into the early to mid 70s win territory. We haven’t been at 75 wins since 2003. NH figures that starting to gain some momentum and getting 1-2 more wins with Church is worth discarding some combination of fringe prospects Raynor, Moss, and Delwyn Young, plusJon Van Every who isn’t a prospect but has MLB reserve potential.
Depth is good- Mediocrity is not
It is great to have a great lineup and then have depth to fill the voids that happen in a long season, but to have average or below average starters with depth equals a losing season.
With that being said, who backs up the Buc’s one above average player in Cutch if he is injured out of the mix of OFs that have been accumlated? Also, would it be better for the team if Cutch were to be moved to a corner position and one of the others be moved to CF? I appreciate your opinions. Greetings from CA.
Cutch needs to stay in center...
and I think any one of Church, Raynor or Moss plays in CF if Cutch goes down. Depends on who makes the team.
They've said...
…that Milledge is Cutch’s backup in CF, with one of the other guys taking over in LF. They also mentioned Moss and Raynor as guys who could play CF on occasion, and Van Every has experience there in the past.
Cutch’s bat goes a lot farther in CF than in a corner. I wouldn’t move him.
He can run farther in CF than in a corner, too. And…Nobody puts Cutchy in a corner!
by MarkInDallas on Jan 12, 2010 8:15 PM EST up reply actions
Brandon Jones Designated For Assignment
Since the Bucs like collecting OFs, here is another 26 year-old that Atlanta just designated for assignment.
Eric Hinske signs for Braves
Why would the Braves dump a 26 year-old for Eric Hinske? Sonds like an Astros move to me.
Hinske's better, jerk or not.
Better hitter, better fielder, better all-around player. And the Braves are positioned as notional contenders for 2010, so they need to focus on the now.
It also helps that Jones isn’t anything special. He was touted a couple of years ago, but has never really played up to his tools. There was an opportunity for him to sieze PT last year, and he didn’t take it.
Number 4 Braves' prospect in 2008
According to this article (see link below),
Jones entered the 2008 season as the Braves No. 4 prospect according to Baseball America. He was ranked ahead of Gorkys Hernandez and even ahead of Tommy Hanson. The three players ahead of him were Jordan Schafer, Jordan Heyward and Jair Jurrjens, which is a pretty strong group. Jones was seen as the Braves’ left fielder of the future.
It also states as you Vlad, he forgot how to hit the last couple of years, but he is still only 26 and another LH bat. He would sell tickets at least at the minor league level and who knows….
http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2010/01/12/hinske-officially-signs-braves-dfa-brandon-jones/
brandon jones
Is Jones out of options now then? Does he have to clear waivers before he can go back to AAA? Will the Pirates make an offer for him?
Hey, as long as
it’s Garrett’s bat and Moss’ glove, and not the other way around, sounds good to me.
Jones was rostered in late '07.
He would’ve used one option in ’08, and another in ’09, but may still have one left.
I doubt the Pirates make an offer for him. His bat isn’t any better than Moss’s, and he doesn’t have nearly the glove value of Moss.
How many on the bench?
I’m surprised no one’s brought this up: DK reports that the bench will be JJ, Vazquez, Crosby, Church, and then one of the remainder. But that’s nuts, right? I mean, I know that they like to have 12 pitchers, but Moss, Young, and Raynor (and Pearce?) are all lost if they don’t make the team. Does it really make sense to give up on all those guys just so you can have a seventh (bad) reliever?
I’m not convinced that any of those guys will contribute to a putative Pirates contender, but it seems crazy to cut them loose in March, especially since our starters should be more collectively solid than we’ve seen in years (I expect starters 1-3 to reach the 6th inning basically every start, #4 to be yanked early 2-4 times, and No Relation/Hart to reach the 6th in ~80% of their starts; I don’t think we’ll need 75-100 innings from mop-up guys this year)
You’re right, and I don’t see what purpose Vazquez serves, either.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jan 12, 2010 6:48 PM EST up reply actions
yes
that;s one of my principal reasons for not liking the signing too much, because (in isolation) Church is a pretty good signing at the amount he signed for.
I discussed this on my blog, and I think the only way pretty much to not lose anyone is by leaving Clement in AAA for a while. Your idea of going with 6 for the bench would also work, though it’s less likely- I think they’ll consider it though…
You don't save a pitcher for tomorrow. Tomorrow it may rain. - Leo Durocher
John Sparrow's blog
by John Sparrow on Jan 12, 2010 7:21 PM EST up reply actions
Moss can go bye-bye
Or be signed to a minor league contract. There’s absolutely nothing I see in Moss’ minor league career or brief Red Sox stint that tells me he can hit very well consistently. I don’t see 2009 as a down year for him at all.
.304 OBP in 2008.
.304 OBP in 2009.
His 2007 Red Sox numbers look good. But I’d hardly call his performance in 6 starts a trend worth banking on.
It’s too bad the Red Sox wasted an option year on him that year and used him so little.
by MarkInDallas on Jan 12, 2010 8:40 PM EST up reply actions
I m sure Moss would be the first out the door, among the outfielders (although I’d prefer Vazquez is the first overall), and possibly overall.
He did show decent power in the minor leagues as well as consistent 350-ish OBP (and .360ish wOBA plus an ISO of .189 in a full year at AAA). It’s not easy to dismiss that. I am also putting some faith in his 2010 projections, which give him a .330-ish wOBA, which is essentially the same as Church. (All stats- Fangraphs
It’s also hard to tell how consistent playing time would have helped him (or not) in Boston, where the pressure doesn’t make adjusting to the bigs easy, in any case. Moss’ biggest problem in the upper minors has been his K-rate, and see how that dropped suddenly with the Pirates in 2009 (his lowest at 21% since AA in 2006)- maybe the fact that he was playing for his place made him try harder to make contact and cost him some of his power and hitting ability. Or maybe it was simply an adjustment, and he needs time to start hitting like he can with a new approach.
As you say, its a pity he doesn’t have an option year left, and there’s little doubt Church is an upgrade on the 2009 Moss- the only question is, did the Pirates get all they could out of Moss? (Probably not a very important question, but in our position, you can’t really afford to let talent go)
You don't save a pitcher for tomorrow. Tomorrow it may rain. - Leo Durocher
John Sparrow's blog
by John Sparrow on Jan 12, 2010 9:13 PM EST up reply actions
I think his K rate got better at the expense of quality contact as you suggest. So, I’m not really sure if that’s an improvement.
What sticks out to me is this…In 2 years in MLB, here are his back to back multi-hit games:
In 2008 (79 games), twice he had 3 games in a row with 2 hits.
In 2009 (133 games), he had 7 starts in a row with 2 or more hits in May.
That’s it. He never had 2 hits in a game twice in a row except for those 3 short stretches. This just tells me his mechanics are too convoluted to be consistently successful. He can get in a groove for a short time, but he can’t repeat it over a long stretch.
In AAA, he didn’t hit above .282. It’s one thing to sit back and wait for mistake pitches in AAA and tee off. You can get away with that. But if you can’t hit near .300 in AAA, I just don’t think you’re a good bet to hit consistently in MLB.
Also, .350 OBP is not really a big deal in AAA to me. Give me something near .370. .360 will do if the K’s and average are good enough.
by MarkInDallas on Jan 12, 2010 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
actually, .363 in his only full year in AAA. That’s close to McCutchen’s, mind you, as are the wOBA’s. Not comparing, just saying, that there was potential.
The K-rate has always been a huge red flag for Moss, but there’s still something to be said for the ability to hammer mistake pitches, if you have the patience to wait for it, which he probably doesn’t. In any case, I think there is no doubt Moss is not better than Church in the short term (at least in terms of expectation)- it just would have been nice to see if he could possibly put it together, since Church isn’t particularly likely to be part of a winning team either.
by BurgherKing on Jan 12, 2010 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
K-rate not an improvement
I was simply pointing it out, with the possibilities either way.
Losing Moss won’t be a particularly big deal, since he wasn’t likely to get an extended shot this year either. All I’m saying is, we may be slightly better in the short term, but it doesn’t do much in the long term- only takes away the faintest possibility that that Moss might have gotten a chance and made the most of it. As you said, it’s not really imminent!
You don't save a pitcher for tomorrow. Tomorrow it may rain. - Leo Durocher
John Sparrow's blog
by John Sparrow on Jan 12, 2010 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
One Year, $1.5 Million Plus Incentives
Includes bonuses of $75,000 each for 350, 375 and 400 plate appearances, $125,000 each for 425, 450 and 475 plate appearances and $180,000 each for 500, 550, 575 and 600 plate appearances.
I like this contract
A lot. Barring injury and/or a collapse by another player, he doesn’t even see $1.7M, and I think he’ll provide more than enough value for that money.
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