Pirates Agree to Terms with D.J. Carrasco
The Pirates and reliever D.J. Carrasco have agreed to terms on a minor-league deal worth $950,000 in base pay if Carrasco sticks. I'm betting he will, because Carrasco is much better than the usual minor-league flyer, or at least he has been over the past two years.
Carrasco was actually a prospect in the Pirates' system until he was taken in the Rule 5 draft by the Royals in 2002. From there, he spent five years bumbling around between the Royals, a couple of AAA teams, and Japan, generally not pitching well. But he emerged as a good reliever for the White Sox in 2008, then carried that success into 2009, when he pitched 93 innings, struck out twice as many as he walked, and posted a 3.76 ERA. Anytime you can get a reliever who can pitch 93 innings in a season without embarrassing himself to sign a minor league deal, you've done well. Carrasco's no world-beater, but he solidifies the Pirates' pen considerably. Good signing.
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haha
I thought you were saying Dotel signing was a gift from God, until I saw his name…
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Serviceable guy...
Not bad. – A serviceable guy out of the pen.
However, even if we sign Dotel I would not call the pen a success story until we see it’s year end performance.
That’s why they play the games.
by Nutting Hostage on Jan 14, 2010 2:37 PM EST reply actions
i don’t think he is saying it’s a complete bullpen success story. they’re not even in spring training yet.
i think the argument is that it’s a success as far as bringing in promising bullpen candidates.
'I would not call the pen a success story until we see it’s year end performance."
Why not? You’ve been perfectly comfortable trashing other parts of the roster without seeing those players’ performances.
Simple.
Why not?
We are looking at a .385 club last season (.305 in the final 2 months) that has done little to improve itself.
I like the Carrasco move. Dotel would be good too. But I don’t think the goal should be simply to fill the pen with warm bodies.
The goal should be to develop an effective bullpen. Even with Carrasco and Dotel, I don’t know that the Pirate pen would be a competitive advantage.
Neal Huntington has talked openly regarding his theory that spending on the bullpen is a crap shoot. Maybe, maybe not. What I do know is that Neal’s actual execution with bullpens
is horrible finishing last in the NL in 08, and tied for 2nd to last in 09.
People often get warm and fuzzy over activity as opposed to the actual result.
Show me a bullpen that ranks higher and show me more wins. – THAT is a success story.
by Nutting Hostage on Jan 14, 2010 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
An interesting response...
…but not one that actually answered my question in any way, shape, or form.
Why are you willing to suspend judgment on Carrasco, but not in areas where you expect the team to do poorly?
suspend judgement of Carrasco???
Apparently you missed this comment:
Serviceable guy… Not bad. – A serviceable guy out of the pen.
What I am not prepared to do is get out the annointing oil and declare the 2010 bullpen a success until it produces results.
Acitivity is is activity.
Results are the bottom line.
by Nutting Hostage on Jan 14, 2010 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
So you're saying...
…that you’re willing to make pre-judgments about the efforts of individual players, but not about the collected efforts of a group of individual players? That seems like a very strange inconsistency.
Actually no...
I didn’t say anything like that.
Those are your words.
by Nutting Hostage on Jan 14, 2010 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
I already did.
Read my existing posts on the matter. – They state my opinion quite clearly.
by Nutting Hostage on Jan 14, 2010 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
the fact is
the bullpen is a crap shoot. developing and spending money on a bullpen for the long run is a waste of money when every year you can go out and do what the pirates are doing this offseason. yeah sure develop a few guys, but to say that this pen wont be competitive is wrong.
maybe it is a crap shoot....
But that does not alleviate the fact that Neal needs to do significantly better than cobbling together bullpens that rank last or 2nd to last in the NL.
Spend money on the pen, or don’t. – I don’t care.
But he sure as heck better produce better results.
by Nutting Hostage on Jan 14, 2010 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
im pretty sure
the majority of the pen last year were developed players, capps, chavez, meek. this year they are going out there and signing a bunch of guys to compete to make the team and a lot of these guys are fairly decent bullpen guys to begin with. how can you not be optimistic about said pen.
Who are these "guys" you speak of?
Carrasco is a guy.
Dotel isn’t here yet.
Lopez spent last season in the minor leagues and so did most of the other guys Neal has brought in to compete for bullpen spots.
by Nutting Hostage on Jan 14, 2010 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
Minor league performance...
…has just as much predictive value as major league performance, once it’s been properly contextualized. As such, your objection is invalid.
Surely
RPs require a LOT of contextualization. Everything I’ve read about MiL pitchers is that the good ones start and the bad ones relieve, and that good ML relievers come from MiL starters. There are exceptions, obviously, but it’s not as if adding 15% (or whatever) to a MiL RP’s FIP will get you his ML performance (especially since, as we all seem to agree, the bullpen in general is a crapshoot – if last year’s ML performance isn’t predictive, why on earth should last year’s MiL performance be?).
On NuHo’s larger point – such as it is – I actually don’t see a problem with preemptively expecting most players to regress a bit and simultaneously waiting to see on the BP. James’ new season-predicting stat (I can’t recall his name for it) says that the vast majority (over 95%) of established ML players are more likely than not to hit worse in 2010 than they did in 2009: unless you can point to concrete factors with a specific player as to why he should improve, I don’t see any reason to expect him to. So why on earth should NuHo be expected to give Jones* and Andy LaRoche the benefit of the doubt? And why would ANY of us give the bullpen the benefit of the doubt?
It looks better than it has, and could well end up being pretty good, but there’s no obvious reason to feel certain that it will be a team strength (I do feel pretty good predicting that it will no longer be league-worst).
- BTW, Vlad, how many HRs are you predicting for Jones in ’10?
No more so than other players.
You just need to recognize that all relievers are inherently high-variance, since they’re only pitching 50 or so innings per season.
I don’t know what to expect from Jones this year. He’s going to drop – but the question is how much.
27
he had 21 in a half season, give he a full season and some dip as pitchers know how to pitch to him and he hits 27 dingers this year.
Wow
I hope to dear God that Jones hits 27 HR’s next year.. and 15+ come before the all-star break before we move him. I wouldn’t surprise if Jones doesn’t even get 20 all of next year.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 14, 2010 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
i dont understand
what would make you believe that is out of his league. its not like he is going to be zapped of all his power from last year. pirates are always looking for someone to take advantage of the short porch at pnc. he had 21HRs last year. give him 6 more for a complete season. hes not going to hit 20 in one month but over a 6 month season i dont see why he cant easily get 27
The only way I see Jones not hitting 20 HRs
is if JR uses him in a platoon only against LHPs. But, I guess that’s possible.
I don’t see him regressing much, really. I would only see him regressing if his K rate got out of control. But look at his K/AB rate the last few years:
2007 AAA: 21%
2008 AAA: 19%
2009 AAA: 17%
2009 MLB: 24%
This tells me he has been continually getting better and that his performance this year was no fluke. Plus, his K rate rise in MLB is well within what you might expect, and quite possibly allows some room for improvement as well.
BB/PA rate
2007 AAA: 7%
2008 AAA: 8.5%
2009 AAA: 6%
2009 MLB: 11%
The question here is: was he pressing for hits to impress in Indy this year? That might be the explanation. He otherwise has improved in his strike zone control the last 3 years as well.
The only thing I can see where they might be reason for regression is in the XBH/H rate. In MLB, he had a 46% extra base hit rate, whereas his usual is around 40%. Plus, he had about 50% HR/XBH ratio in MLB, whereas his usual is more like 40%.
So, there could be a bit of regression there. That still would make him an extremely valuable hitter, just not a .398 wOBA hitter. More like between .370 and .380 probably.
by MarkInDallas on Jan 15, 2010 12:56 AM EST up reply actions
um
yates, cotts, bass…..yeah lopez and carrasco….sure some of these guys are coming off injuries but they are veteran bullpen guys who can eat innings. plus we have hanrahan all year. so chillax on the pen not being good.
yates, cotts, bass…..yeah lopez and carrasco….
Well let’s see…..
Yates just had TJ surgery and won’t be able to pitch in the majors until mid season at best. Not to mention he has a career 5.12 era and 1.565 whip.
Cotts had a 7.36 era last season and has a career 4.63 era and 1.467 whip.
Bass has a career 4.87 era and 1.588 whip.
Lopez spent last season in the minors and has a career 4.62 era and 1.49 era.
See this is the problem. The Pirates have been so bad for so long that many Pirate fans can no longer recognize the how bad certain players are.
Those guys are all horrible who at best would be the last man in just about every other bullpen in MLB.
by Nutting Hostage on Jan 14, 2010 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
got to start somewhere
the pirates have no shot at bringing in top notch pitchers for their pen. its just not going to happen. be happy with what you can take and hope for the best. you never know with bullpen guys. hanrahan 7.something era with nats, comes here his era under 2 while with us. go figure! so you never know who will surprise each year. thats why its a crap shoot.
Crap shoot, no crap shoot. Spend don’t spend.
Just improve the performance. – That is all that matters.
I don’t see how a single one of the players you listed will do that.
by Nutting Hostage on Jan 14, 2010 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
so then lets hear who they should get
please, if not these guys then who would you have gone after? resign a matt capps? go after valverde? honestly? how would you improve this bullpen since clearly the NH way is not your prefered style.
Sure, I think Capps would have been an improvement over every single one of the stiffs Neal has brought in so far.
You might want to check out Capps career stats and compare them to these guys Neal has brought in.
by Nutting Hostage on Jan 14, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
fair enough
we can compare matt capps in his role to whoever the pirates use in the same role in the pen at the end of the year.
No No No!
Nutting Hostage makes it clear that we have not got Dotel yet, so he cannot be counted. that is why i used no names to compare to capps. although i believe dotel has better career numbers than capps.
first or last?
Overall I go with the Mad Capper…
Dotel has kind of a children’s-fairy-tale-friendly-giant feel to it!
That would be incorrect...
although i believe dotel has better career numbers than capps.
Dotel: 3.73 era / 1.25 whip / 83 saves at age 36.
Capps: 3.61 era / 1.17 whip / 67 saves at age 26.
Dotel has a higher K/9 10.8 to Capps 6.9 but Capps has a far better BB/9 1.7 to Dotel’s 4.1.
by Nutting Hostage on Jan 15, 2010 7:50 AM EST up reply actions
Which, in the end...
…translates to a difference of 0.04 points of FIP. As I said earlier.
That being the case, it seems like a no-brainer to go with the guy who didn’t stink on ice last year.
the saves dont matter
becuase dotel isnt the closer every year of his career. he has mainly been setup man with a few years of closing experience. and once capps plays 11 seasons lets see what his era is, i would bet a lot and say its higher than 3.73
That’s why they play the games.
Really?
Genius.
Think that one up all by yourself, didja?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 14, 2010 8:52 PM EST up reply actions
Yep, good move
Add in the fact that this guy was pitching in the AL with a lousy White Sox defense behind him and his performance looks even better.
So basically
we got Iwamura for nothing, if not for free?
How so?
we got Iwamura for nothing, if not for free?
How so?
Neal traded a young reliever with 6 yrs of club control for a player he can control for 1 year and will most likely flip at the trade deadline. – Not to mention adding $4M in cost that could have been spent more effectively signing amateur draft picks or Latin American free agents.
by Nutting Hostage on Jan 14, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
This is why all that talk...
…about Chavez’s “years of control” was overblown. Unless he develops into an elite shutdown guy, there will be similar options available at similar prices every year in FA.
id rather have the bat of iwamura over chavez.
Even if it’s only 4 months of that bat?
Besides, I thought the real value of Iwamura was in his glove?
by Nutting Hostage on Jan 14, 2010 3:54 PM EST reply actions
i was just basing this off another fan post
where i said the offense should improve this year and then everyone went bananas saying our offense sucks. well if the offense sucks then wouldnt we want another bat over a bullpen guy? thats all that was meant by that.
It depends to whom you are comparing him.
Relative to Young, he’s an improvement with both the bat and the glove.
I think most here would agree...
… that we would rather have one year of Iwamura (glove and bat), then another possible five years of Chavez (a guy who was below replacement level, costing us about .4 wins last year). Add in the fact that we add Carrasco (who was worth 1.3 WAR last season) for an addition 500k more than we would have paid Chavez, and I think we came out on top.
Now Chavez may get better because he is somewhat young, and Carrasco prob will not pitch enough innings to accumulate another 1.3 WAR season. But that’s a may and a probably.
And that 2nd to last bullpen from 2009 has now jettisoned two of it’s worst members (Capps and Chavez, not to mention guys like Bootcheck, Bautista, Veal, Doumatrait, etc…). So addition by subtraction.
We have club control of Teddy Fallon potentially for the next nine years. If we trade him for a starting secondbaseman, I’ll really be pissed.
by WTM on Jan 14, 2010 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
D.J. Carrasco
pitched in only three games for the Fukuoka team in NPB in 2006. I remember he signed for big money-about the equivalent of $2 million-and I believe his contract was for 2 years, but I could be mistaken. He had a significant arm problem of some sort and never was able to perform for them. I saw him pitch at least once on TV and the velocity wasn’t there. It was a huge disappointment for the team, and they were still on the hook for the second year of Tony Batista’s enormous contract. (It was their choice to let him go, though.)
I really like this move for the Pirates: the money and the minor league deal at present.
A signing of Octavio Dotel would be another positive sign for 2010, and I still contend that Japanese lefty Hisanori Takahashi would be a solid addition, too.
Maybe he's the third reliever.
I get the impression that Dejan’s list was his own guesses, rather than the opinion of team sources.
just confirming
Dotel is close to signing with someone
http://www.hotstove.com/2010/01/octavio-dotel-close-to-signing-pirates-likely-suitor/
Nutting Hostage
You sure are gunnin’ for trouble, aren’t you?
The team has made some solid signings and none that will inhibit the organization from building a winning club a couple of years later.
Iwamura for Chavez: good move for the Bucs
Crosby: a necessary one
Church: another solid pick-up if he stays healthy
Carrasco: good depth for the ’pen and the cost/contract make sense, especially in light of his track record
Dotel: If we get him, it will be a big help to the pitching staff.
You just can’t please some nattering nabobs of negativism-no matter how many times they change their user names.
Chad Durbin signed with Phillies before the 2008 season
for similar money and was very useful for them for 2 years, especially the first one.
I remember the Pirates really wanted him.
Let’s hope the Bucs get lucky with Carrasco and get plenty of good use out of him for a year, maybe two.
As far as I’m concerned, any move that reduces the chances of me having to watch Denny Bautista, Chris Bootcheck or Tyler Yates again is a success.
I could even live with Yates...
…as long as they recognized that he’s a middle reliever on talent, not a closer or setup guy.
WTM
There’s always 2010 Yokohama BayStars games to get your fill of Chris Bootcheck.
True...
Sending Bootcheck over just seems gratuitous at this point. Haven’t they suffered enough?
At least he’s not going to the Hiroshima Carp.
Interesting note from Dejan on Carrasco
They were fortunate to get D.J. Carrasco — very fortunate, according to a scout from a rival team who texted me today applauding the Pirates’ acquisition — on a minor league contract so that he would not count against the 40-man.
He adds that a holdup with Dotel and the mystery reliever may be opening the roster spots, meaning they may be trying to trade somebody for a Grade C prospect or whatever.
why?
do you or anyone else see why its such a big deal?
Bixler, Claggett and Diaz should not be that hard to give up. Unless they don’t want to waste the spot. Dejan mentioned DY as a trade candidate, I think. Not sure who would be willing to give anything important for him. Nonetheless, I m very interested.
You don't save a pitcher for tomorrow. Tomorrow it may rain. - Leo Durocher
John Sparrow's blog
by John Sparrow on Jan 14, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
I think
That they’re probably pondering the possibility that they’ll end up cutting one or even three out of DY, Moss, and Pearce and, if so, why not move them now while holding on to those other guys whom they won’t lose.
Kind of silly, since those guys* are IMO worthless, but eking out every last bit of value is the name of the game here.
- Maybe not Diaz – I’m willing to give him another year. If nothing else, I like the idea of an emergency callup who’s at least an upgrade with the glove, even if his bat is Bixleresque.
More likely...
just waiting to notify the players involved. It wouldn’t be considered proper etiquette for Bixler, Claggett, Diaz, etc. to find out they’ve been DFA’d by way of the newspaper.
"Hi, Bixie?
see ya."
.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 14, 2010 9:50 PM EST up reply actions
Purely for the sake of fairness...
…Diaz would have to improve considerably to become Bixleresque. Bixler, for all his flaws, is at least a good enough hitter to be a competent regular in AAA. Diaz hit .233/.273/.240 at that level last year, after his promotion.
I don’t see any possible negative to this. Carrasco is nothing special, but the Pirates bullpen is starting to look like less of a train wreck than it did a few weeks ago. I have to figure that his presence will be a setback to Jakubauskas’ and Karstens’ chances at making the team.
Dotel would be ideal.
Agreeing with management.
I have a sneaking suspicion that if we already had DJ and had just traded him away, you’d have instead talked about it being a good move because even though he just had two decent seasons, he wasn’t that great before that.
I’m personally pretty unhappy about the way the team is run. I think in another 5 or 10 years we’ll still be in a similar situation. That being said, I don’t think that EVERY move management makes is bad. However, you seem to think EVERY move they make is a good one. I’m not saying this particular move is bad, because it does actually sound decent, but I can’t think of the last time you said something negative about a move by the Pirates. To me, that’s just as bad as the folks on the other side of things who don’t think any move is a good move.
I agree...
With management because these moves, not just free agent signings, are so different from what DL did. I think the Littlebrains may have gone after a guy like Adrian Beltre just to satisfy some weird synapse in his brain that said a one year wonder could make this team better long term. Look every move they make is not a great one, ala letting Scheppers get away, actually if Q. Miller (who got Tanners $) has 5 decent years it’ll far exceed the 2 years Tanner has before TJ or major labrum surgery.
Call me a kool-aid drinker for wanting to rid this team of guys who were never going to win here for guys who may be part of a winning team. This year will be the start of the turn, mark it down.
I’m wondering who has said anything especially glowing about Carrasco. Did I miss something?
by MarkInDallas on Jan 15, 2010 1:58 AM EST up reply actions
Was that when Charlie said “Carrasco’s no world beater”? Was that too glowing?
by MarkInDallas on Jan 15, 2010 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
you seem to think EVERY move they make is a good one
since we’re talking about the bullpen, did you miss the entire matt capps discussion? try here.
Charlie also did not like the Bobby Crosby signing, as well.
by Adam Reynolds on Jan 15, 2010 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
I stand somewhat corrected...
To answer a few comments towards what I posted.
I was talking about Charlie.
I was not trying to say anything specific about DJ Carrasco. I personally (as stated) think this is a decent move, I really do. I wasn’t saying that Charlie or anyone else were bursting at the seams with praise for him or this move, or that anyone was critical of this move.
I was trying to make a comment about the fact that this blog seems to be drowning in praise for any move made by the club.
That all being said, I do stand somewhat corrected. I said “EVERY” move has been met by praise, and as has been pointed out with two examples, it is not “EVERY” move. Still, I do think that a lot of what is said tends to be explained away in a manner to say what the team is doing is nearly always positive. To be honest, I think that most of the moves are dealing with players of such minor interest on both sides that it probably won’t matter one way or the other. As someone pointed out, we are getting rid of parts of the team that we know aren’t going to win here for players that may win here. Of course, that also means that they may not win here. Still, a trade of people who don’t win for folks who won’t win isn’t necessarily a bad move, especially if it saves money.
I was using the DJ Carrasco discussion as an example of how I see discussions go around here. I just get the feeling that if we had just released a minor-leaguer of Carrasco’s history, or somehow traded away a minor-leaguer with his resume, this same blog would have heralded the move as smart, likely noting his longer history without success compared to the out of character two years he just experienced. Obviously I can’t prove any of this, as those weren’t the moves that were made.
I think what I’m trying to get at is that with so many of the clubs moves having so many “ifs” involved, that when trying to realistically assess the situation, I find it hard to find definite positives. The difference in opinion seems to be that looking at the same moves, Charlie seems to very easily find a lot more upside when the club signs a player, and a lot more downside when we release one. In other words, it just seems like “ifs” are good for the club when we sign someone, and “ifs” are negative when we lose a player. To me, I just see too many “ifs” in most of the moves to be able to go along with seeing so much positive. Thus, as someone who is not on the Huntington/Nutting/Coonelly bandwagon, I don’t see any signs yet that lead me to believe I should believe in what they are doing.
I think Charlie and the posters here tend to be very honest, and there is good back and forth on both sides for most Bucs transactions. As far as whether we would praise trading away the hypothetical Carrasco clone, it would depend on what was gotten in return. IF he was released despite being at a good value price, I can’t imagine that would be well-received here or in other similar venues.
You’re correct that these are a lot of minor moves, but if Dotel adds a win or two here (over the last 2 months 09 team), Carrasco a win there, Iwamura two or three wins, etc, then the minor moves create a solid composition overall IMO.
by Adam Reynolds on Jan 15, 2010 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
That's actually how teams really get better.
The number of players who can make a huge difference on their own is literally counted on one hand or less. Even Albert Pujols is not going to add more than 10 wins to a team. So, add up 5 or 6 good minor moves and you’ve got the same impact as signing Albert Pujols.
by MarkInDallas on Jan 15, 2010 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
Also with one position, going from bad to average (Delwyn Young to Akinori Iwamura) is the same net gain to a team as going from average to very good (say, from Iwamura to Ian Kinsler).
by Adam Reynolds on Jan 15, 2010 6:50 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t approve of every move. I was indifferent to Crosby, was opposed to the Capps move, was one of the more skeptical voices about the Freddy Sanchez trade, and so on. There are tons of things I haven’t liked.
I think you have to take each move as it comes. When you can get a durable, decent reliever on a minor league deal, it’s really hard to argue that’s anything but a good move. And if they later trade that reliever that they got on a minor-league deal for something of longer-term value, that will be a good move too. There’s no inconsistency there.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jan 15, 2010 6:54 PM EST up reply actions

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