Huntington's bullpen strategy
by GTrain on Jan 16, 2010 6:40 PM EST
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When Huntington became the Pirate's GM he stressed investing the teams money wisely and finding undervalued commodities. This is one of the main ideas of "Moneyball" as most know by now.
He has done this a few ways. In trades and free agent signings he targeted players that he thought had upside but other teams had lost their taste for. Sometimes it has worked out well (Tabata, Ohlendorf, Jaramillo) and other times not (Craig Monroe, Vasquez) but for the most part it's too early to tell (Milledge, Clement, Morton etc). However now it seems that with the young players in the system he has begun making safe bets of 1- 3 million at a time on relievers who are average to solid, but capable of pitching very well.
While it is generally regarded as foolish to spend "big money" on relievers as their performance fluxuates greatly from year to year, it is an excellent investment of 1-3 million dollars on guys who have proven that they can be excellent relievers in the past for that same reason. You are not spending a great deal of money, and based on past performance you will probably get a decent reliever. While the guy could collapse, there is an equal if not greater chance that he will pitch better than expected. If that is the case you have gotten a great value. Aside from the addition to your team, if you find yourself out of contention around the trading deadline (cough cough) they are always in demand and can thus be used as trade chips to get young talent that you need at other positions. Having them attached to a one year contract at a reasonable rate makes them all the more appealing for good teams looking to bolster their bullpen for a post season run, rather than commit multiple years to a guy as a long term piece.
Additionally there is the affect that is has on a young rotation. It is often stressed how important it is to a young pitchers confidence and performance to have a good defense playing behind him. A great play to get a guy out of a jam goes a long way when the floodgates are about to open, as well as the negative mental impact watching balls drop or go through holes. Having a reliable bullpen to hand the ball over to is equally important to that development. When a young guy goes out and pitches a great game and leaves with the lead, he deserves to get the win and be reawrded for his work. It's not easy for a guy trying to establish himself to hold up his end of the deal for 7 innings and then watch Tyler Yates blow it.
Sure they could be just as bad as last years bullpen, but I think that spending moderate money on solid if unspectacular relievers is a great investment of the limited budget for such a young team.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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Questioning these signings remind yourself of the Astros’ signing of brandon lyon
by Danatural08 on Jan 16, 2010 11:25 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Looking at Donnelly’s stats, I noticed he was great in AAA for the Astros during the first half of 2009, but they didn’t call him up. He probably exercised an opt out option and ended up with the Marlins, where he was outstanding the second half.
Your assumption (that he opted out) is correct.
He opted out of a contract with the Houston Astros earlier this season.
According to this article on his signing with the Marlins.
you can argue
that spending 1-3 million here and there on a couple relief guys each year that have a higher chance of not being affective opposed to being affective could fall under the category of the guys were signing are’nt worth the money were giving them, but then your left with the worst bullpen in baseball, and you can’t win with a suspect buillpen so I voted “I like it”
by FusilliJerry88 on Jan 16, 2010 11:46 PM EST reply actions
The main thing is
If you pay for more than 1 WAR to a middle relief pitcher, it’s very difficult to get your money’s worth. Huntington is paying $3M per WAR, so $1.5M for .5 WAR of Donnelly is just fine.
Paying Grabow $3.75M for .2 WAR is not good. It’s all a matter of who you pay and what you expect.
I'm on board, GTrain.
Basically, we have a rotation of 3-4-5 guys. Giving them a good defense and a solid bullpen behind them could help them pitch like 2-3-4 guys, while paying them like 3-4-5 guys. Meanwhile, it will cost far less to put together a competent to good bullpen than it would to try to sign a top-of-the-rotation ace. I think they sorted through their in-house bullpen options for two years, decided they weren’t that good and went the cheap flippable free agent route. Sounds like a plan. Even better, sounds like the flexibility to change the plan when the plan ain’t working.
Me too
You hit the nail on the head with your opening paragraph. I think one of the principles that NH has embraced and has made Billy Beane one of the smarter GMs in the game is that it doesn’t matter how much you spend; it matters how much you spend effectively.
I wouldn’t be surprised if within 2-3 seasons we’re looking at a team contending for a playoff spot with a payroll that is a fraction of its division opponents, i.e. Oakland from 2000-03. If you understand baseball’s economics, you understand that outside of the arbitration process, every other aspect of baseball’s wage system is based on subjective evaluation and artificial demand. If you can expose the inefficiencies in the market and take advantage, you can be successful, no matter whether you’re a high revenue or low revenue team.
"Straight ball I hit very much, but curveball, bats are afraid." - Pedro Cerrano
I think
What NH has done this offseason with the bullpen in terms of assembling it is my favorite thing he has done so far as GM. The Capps situation — while I as well as everyone else would have liked to have gotten something for him — ended up working out in the way he thought it would. He ended up being able to get a bunch of veterans with solid track records for a lower cost. If he gets Dotel as well it all but finishes up the pen since some of the arms they will be using are good against lefties and righties.
But what I like about it more than anything is that he tweaked his bullpen plan. He’s not just targeting super-cheap guys like last year, he’s supplemented them with actual veteran talent this year and has changed his assembly plan for the pen. And, obviously, he blocks no one of worth with these signings and they could still be flipped if things don’t work out. It seems like he found the middle ground between paying nothing for relievers and paying enough to get some value without assuming too much risk or potential long-term damage that could hurt a low-payroll team.
Obviously, now Dotel is going to get a 10 million dollar 2-year deal and Donnelly, Carrasco, Dotel and Hanrahan are all going to flame out while Capps puts up a 1.99 ERA
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