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Around SBN: Nevin Shapiro Vows To Bring Down Miami

Pirates, Octavio Dotel Reach Agreement

One year, plus a club option, which is cool. The financial terms haven't been released, but the Post-Gazette has repeatedly hinted that Dotel will cost around $3 million, which is a good deal. Not that it means much, but he could be the Pirates' best reliever by a large margin. I won't belabor this, because these developments have been imminent for a long time and because I already discussed them in detail here, but I like this move a lot.

Compared to how it looked a few weeks ago, the Pirates' bullpen looks almost stable now, doesn't it? Dotel, Brendan Donnelly and D.J. Carrasco solidify the relief corps considerably, to the point that yesterday's unceremonious dumping of, seemingly, one of last year's more reliable relievers (Steven Jackson) didn't even really start a firestorm with a fanbase that loves firestorms.

Now that the remaking of the bullpen is probably now complete, or nearly complete, I'm a little less annoyed and perplexed with what happened to Matt Capps. That Dotel's deal contains an option puts things into perspective, since the Pirates only controlled Capps through 2011 anyway. So, in a way, the Pirates are exchanging one year plus an option for Capps for the same for Dotel. Dotel is older, but projects to be about as good in 2010 as Capps was, may actually be a less volatile commodity (due to Capps' awful 2009 season and poor physique), and will probably be cheaper both years (depending on the details of the contract, of course).

This doesn't fully justify the Pirates' decision with Capps, obviously. They could have kept Capps and signed Dotel, and with the Bucs' payroll among the lowest in the majors, there was no reason they could not have afforded both. (They probably would have had to promise Dotel a clean shot at the closer's job to get him to sign, but given the way Capps played last year, that should have been a promise they would have felt comfortable making.) But it does make Capps' dismissal easier to take. Frankly, for 2010, I'd rather have Dotel.

UPDATE: In the comments, Adam Reynolds adds that one thing that's nice about the option is that the market for relief pitching might not be quite so favorable next year, so it'll be good for the Pirates to be able to keep Dotel around for what could turn out to be a bargain. The Pirates picked a really good year to need a ton of relief pitching. For around $6 million between them, Dotel, Donnelly and Carrasco are a great value.

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Finally.

I’m looking forward to seeing the pen perform this year. Should be interesting.

by Slick1 on Jan 20, 2010 10:37 PM EST reply actions  

yeahhhhh

just another move that you have to feel good about as a pirate fan. no reason to bad talk NH, if you dont think this was a good move, then you dont know much eh

by C Shint on Jan 20, 2010 10:38 PM EST reply actions  

I really like the club option

Could be very worthwhile depending on how much progress the Bucs make this year. If they’re in a position to be pretty good in 2011, that’s a nice option.

by biggyv on Jan 20, 2010 10:40 PM EST reply actions  

I was going to make a comment on how it might be tricky for us to find this kind of value in the Pen every year, so I’m glad we’re getting some flexibility as well.

by Adam Reynolds on Jan 20, 2010 10:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I expect the idea is that, once the farm system has finally passed through the Great Dave Littlefield Dust Bowl, there should be much more reliance on good arms coming up from the minors and less on this sort of thing.

by WTM on Jan 20, 2010 10:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Time to Pimp the Mets

Just throwing this in here because its the newest thread and the impact on our 40-man roster of this signing has to be considered.

But the mets apparently just lost Joel Piniero to the Angels. They have an awful rotation after Carlos Santana – way back when, the Angels rotation was Tanana and (Nolan) Ryan and two days of cryin’ – the Mets now have Santana and Ollie and not much else, by gosh, by gollie.

They have a AAAA journeyman as their starting catcher right now, the best free agent catcher available (Y. Torrealba) has a grievance filed against them, and the next best free agent catcher is 34 or 35 years old I believe.

Extortion is legal in this context. Package either Doumit or Jaramillo with one or two reasonably competent starting pitchers – we don’t need to throw in Duke – and we might get every minor league player in the Mets system + a dozen bats + a warm six pack….

Just sayin….

by Trogluddite on Jan 20, 2010 10:53 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

i like how that sounds!

by PensRock1 on Jan 20, 2010 11:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Carlos Santana?

Yeah, he’s a good one.

by maguro on Jan 20, 2010 11:05 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

yeah, yeah, yeah...

typed it and decided to leave to see if anyone read my posts after the infamous “rolling stone gathers no Moss” pun.

by Trogluddite on Jan 20, 2010 11:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, screw the prospects. Trade for Carlos.

by WTM on Jan 20, 2010 11:53 PM EST up reply actions  

The Mets farm isn’t even worth pursuing. They didn’t have much before the Santana trade, and they have even less now, in spite of the fact that I think they stole Santana for real underpayment.

by Suffering Buc on Jan 21, 2010 7:20 AM EST up reply actions  

This is categorically untrue.

The Mets have a solid top 10, with some issues of organizational depth after that. Since we probably weren’t talking about trading Doumit for five C+ prospects, though, the upper crust is what’s relevant, and they’ve got perfectly acceptable trade commodities in Niese and F-Mart and Mejia and Reese Havens and Ike Davis.

by Vlad on Jan 21, 2010 7:39 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Then again (re:the Doumit/Mets speculation), would the most injury-riddled team of last year really go after someone with Doumit’s record? The reason Minaya said he liked Francoeur at the deadline last year was because he has been durable his whole career.

by Adam Reynolds on Jan 21, 2010 8:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, at this point, how many options do they have?

Needs must as the devil drives, right?

From what I’m reading right now, the Pineiro signing has pushed them to looking at Ben Sheets. And next to Sheets, Doumit looks like Cal Ripken.

by Vlad on Jan 21, 2010 8:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Next to most of the Mets’ roster, Doumit is the Iron Man.

by WTM on Jan 21, 2010 9:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Meet the Mess!

Meet the Mess,
Meet the Mess,
Step right up and greet the Mess!

by Nutting Hostage on Jan 22, 2010 7:58 AM EST up reply actions  

There’s also a note at rotoworld now that the Mets weren’t impressed with Carlos Delgado when they scouted him recently, so they’re going to go with Fernando Tatis at first. They’re still saddled with Luis Castillo at second, the Red Sox obviously had real issues over Bay’s knees, they’ve got the always-disappointing Jeff Francoeur in right, they have no real catcher, the rapidly declining K-Rod is their closer, and their rotation is a bunch of quesiton marks after Johan. All this for probably about $130M.

by WTM on Jan 22, 2010 9:32 AM EST up reply actions  

If Minaya weren't up against the wall...

…there’s no way they’d be going for it this year.

by Vlad on Jan 22, 2010 11:41 AM EST up reply actions  

Met's trade just announced....

They picked up Gary Matthews Jr. to cover CF while Beltran is out…..

Still just a huge mess for $130M+.

by Nutting Hostage on Jan 22, 2010 1:07 PM EST up reply actions  

They're only paying about $2M of his deal.

That’s still about $2M more than he’s worth, of course.

by Vlad on Jan 22, 2010 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Where’s Matt Morris when you need him?

by WTM on Jan 22, 2010 3:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Had to laugh at this:

ESPN’s Buster Olney spoke to several people in the game about the Mets picking up Gary Matthews Jr., and the general thought is that he “can’t hit for average, can’t hit for power, his defense ranks statistically among the worst outfielders in the majors, and, to top it off, rival scouts have been reporting that in recent years he has been a clubhouse negative.”

by WTM on Jan 23, 2010 11:05 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh, and they also need

a starting center fielder on opening day, although Angel Pagan was servicable last year.

by Trogluddite on Jan 20, 2010 11:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Ollie?

I would put him in the “not much else” category. Although you are right in saying the Mets rotation is void of any consistency. But I would be disappointed if the Bucs traded Doumit away (yet).

by Maxwell.C on Jan 20, 2010 11:09 PM EST reply actions  

i wouldnt if they totally rip the mets a new one in the trade

by PensRock1 on Jan 20, 2010 11:10 PM EST reply actions  

Yes! Been waiting a while now for that move. Love the way the team is shaping up this year. 2010 much > than 2009. I was in HS when we won back to back to back div titles, it’s taken a while but NH and crew has the ship righted again. Van Slyke in ‘11 and I’ll move back to PGH hahaha.

by Reno Stack on Jan 20, 2010 11:32 PM EST reply actions  

Neal has guessed correctly on his 2 biggest gambits.

He said he felt he could get Freddy Sanchez’s production at the price he wanted to pay him and he was correct in Iwamura.

He said he could get Capps’ production at the price he wanted to pay him and he also was correct with Dotel.

These are some of the best indications that the guy know what the hell he is doing. Thank God for that!

by MarkInDallas on Jan 21, 2010 2:56 AM EST reply actions  

Nobody is perfect

And I don’t want to belabor the point unecessarily, but as Charlie points out, signing Dotel only fills the void left by Capps – it does not justify it.

I’ve thought Capps overrated for years and I don’t mind not having him, but if Brian Bixler can bring back Brito, logic dictates that a guy of Capps’ pedigree would bring back at least as much.

NH & FC are allowed to make a few mistakes along the way, but it should be acknowledged that letting an asset leave for nothing (other than perhaps financial savings for this franchise) was a poor baseball decision.

Good day.

by Uncle Nate on Jan 21, 2010 8:09 AM EST up reply actions  

I’d argue that Bixler is a more valuable commodity during the off-season than Capps given the salary differences. There were dozens of mediocre right-handed relievers in the free agent pool, and Capps’ likely salary through arbitration makes him less valuable in comparison to them.

Bixler has many problems as we know, but utility players who can play shortstop are harder to find at this point, let alone at minimum salary. The situation is different during the season, since holes in the ’pen desperately need to be filled by playoff teams and they are willing to overpay through trade.

Maybe the team should have held Capps through the season, but I can see why he’s worth next to nothing now.

by Adam Reynolds on Jan 21, 2010 8:43 AM EST up reply actions  

Actually, I think signing a better player than Capps...

…to do the job that Capps did, for less money than Capps wanted, kind of justifies itself.

We decided that a particular commodity wasn’t worth the purchase price, so we bought a different (slightly better) commodity with our money instead. Nothing wrong with that.

by Vlad on Jan 21, 2010 9:01 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree with this assessment. I suppose you could argue that they could have signed Capps for $3.5 million, traded him to the Nats and then signed Dotel, but ultimately there is more than zero risk in that option.

I guess I’m saying that I’m totally fine trading Capps for Dotel plus half a million bucks.

by mak_DC on Jan 21, 2010 11:01 AM EST up reply actions  

It really is not that big a deal to me, but you are both missing the point...

It is an opportunity lost.

I promise to leave this topic alone for the remainder of this thread.

Good day.

by Uncle Nate on Jan 21, 2010 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I have no idea what opportunity was lost, but if that is what it took to wind up with a better team I’m all for it.

by MarkInDallas on Jan 21, 2010 11:20 PM EST up reply actions  

As I said on another thread

Just pretend we traded Capps for Brito and released Bixler. I’m pretty sure everyone here would have been OK with that. We arrived at the same result, just from a different direction.

BTW … has anybody picked up Capps yet? Did I miss it?

Weclome aboard, Numero eight-o.

by bucdaddy on Jan 21, 2010 10:16 AM EST up reply actions  

nationals got him, penciled in as their closer,

by Repperson29 on Jan 21, 2010 10:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Capps could save 35 games....

….if he saves every single win the Nats have this year. lol

by Brakeman8 on Jan 21, 2010 11:16 AM EST up reply actions  

It takes two to tango.

The Cubs and Mets were the other teams bidding for Capps’ services, and they didn’t get him. Did these teams make a mistake by not trading for Capps? Because they certainly had the chance. It seems they both would have offered Capps about the same money as the Nats did.

The fact these teams did not feel that Capps was important enough to trade a prospect PLUS pay him a $3.5M salary tells us that that this was the top of his value. For a trade to be made, Capps would have to be worth MORE than $3.5M.

Just because you think some team would have traded for Capps doesn’t mean that they would. In fact, they didn’t, even though they were offered the opportunity to do it. That is the best indication that they wouldn’t.

by MarkInDallas on Jan 21, 2010 11:23 AM EST up reply actions  

Since time and time again

I realize I know next to nothing, I’m gonna defer to the experts on this one.

Let’s assume the Mets are mildly desperate and NH is actually willing to let Doumit go while his perceived value is low, what can the Pirates actually expect in return.

First, is there actually any chance that NH packages a couple of guys together, like Doumit, Maholm, and the newly acquired Brandon Jones (It looks like, apart from needing a SP or two and a C, the Mets could use some OF depth). Is a package of 3 at all likely? If not, what about two, say Doumit and Maholm.

I’m gonna assume that my wildest dreams come true and we can move Doumit, a SP (Duke, Maholm etc.) and a OF (Brandon Moss, Brandon Jones). What would we expect in return?

Would a package of say Wilmer Flores, Jon Niese, and Juan Urbina be reasonable, or be too much, or too little? Would that even make sense or we would be better off asking for Niese, Havens, Kyle Allen, and Urbina. Do they have any players who are no longer considered propsects (I only looked at a prospect list) that they have no need for that would be useful to us? Is there anyway we could ask for Meija. It seems to me he is too young to be a centerpiece in a major trade coming back to us.

Just looking for thoughts/opinions.

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 21, 2010 11:53 AM EST reply actions  

I took a look at Doumit’s trade value in a general sense in November. I don’t know the Mets’ system well enough to attach names, but it’s a start.

by MBandi on Jan 21, 2010 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

There’s an argument to be made for making a trade with Omar Minaya just for the sake of making a trade with Omar Minaya.

by WTM on Jan 21, 2010 1:00 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think Minaya is a good GM by any stretch of the imagination, but the biggest trade he’s pulled off was the Sanatan trade, and two years later, I think we can all say he got the better of that one.

I think we are underestimating Minaya just a bit, Oliver Perez singing and Jeff Franceur trade not with standing.

by Maxwell.C on Jan 21, 2010 4:09 PM EST up reply actions  

He'll have to do a hell of a lot more than that...

…to make up for trading Phillips, Sizemore, and Lee for Colon while he was running the Expos.

I understand the desire to trade prospects-for-veterans at the time when he made the deal. But he paid a hell of a lot, and when he re-flipped Colon that offseason (as a still highly-desirable commodity), all he got back was Rocky Biddle, Orlando Hernandez, and Jeff Liefer. Biddle was a below-average reliever for two years, Hernandez missed the entire ‘03 season with arm problems before leaving as a FA, and Liefer was lost on waivers after half a year on the bench. That’s just a disastrous sequence.

by Vlad on Jan 21, 2010 4:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Ah yes, the “Biddle and bits” trade

by Charlie Wilmoth on Jan 21, 2010 10:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Heh.

Hadn’t heard that one before. Fits pretty well.

by Vlad on Jan 22, 2010 6:24 AM EST up reply actions  

Just

my opinion why Doumit won’t be traded to NYMs: we’re a better team than them. why move backwards

by Danatural08 on Jan 21, 2010 12:03 PM EST reply actions  

That cant be true!

They have Jason Bay who we all know was the main piece of a Pirates World Series team…or something…

by Mick Kraut on Jan 21, 2010 12:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Going to the HOF

Along with Nady and McClouth the same year. We got screwd!!!!

by IAPiratesFan on Jan 21, 2010 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks for using the popular spelling of McClouth….nice touch.

by Brakeman8 on Jan 21, 2010 2:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Wait and see...

I’m in the pessimist camp when it comes to the Pirates, and I’ll freely admit it. I’ll add on to that my opinion that automatically assuming someone who is a pessimist about the Pirates can’t possibly know anything about baseball and is just a crank, is the same as assuming that being an optimist means you must be drinking the koolaid and puttin on the nikes.

Anywho, I think that many people see too much silver lining in this deal. Dotel will be servicable at best, which in my opinion, is nothing to get excited about. That reflects the other moves made so far by the Pirates. Getting rid of players who were servicable for other players who are servicable in the name of saving the club money. Don’t get me wrong, if that saved money is put to good use down the road, then I’m all for it. I may be one of the few who feel this way, but having endured a record number of losing seasons, a few more really isn’t going to hurt. However, and I’m really only saying this because I’d like it on record somewhere that I said this despite many people telling me that I was wrong, the Pirates will lose between 95 and 100 games this year. I won’t respond to comments because I’m not going to be swayed in my thoughts on this. Don’t get me wrong, I want the Pirates to win, and I think that if all the stars align this club could compete for around only 85 losses, but that’s putting too much faith in everything going to plan perfectly. For all the talk of WAR and so forth (not in this thread, but in general this offseason), those numbers are only a projection and not all that great a sign of hope at that.

95 to 100 losses, mark this down.

by JimiL on Jan 21, 2010 4:26 PM EST reply actions  

Forgot to say this...

Making a good move on a servicable player and getting a fair value for it is not the same as improving the team’s chance of winning.

by JimiL on Jan 21, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions  

JimiL is still imagining these strawmen. I’m curious as to whom he’s referring as well.

by Adam Reynolds on Jan 21, 2010 5:06 PM EST up reply actions  

preemptive

Forgive me for not bothering to point to any specific response. I see essentially two camps of Pirates fans. Those who think that the new management is heading in the right direction and making the right choices, and the others who think that new management is old management with a fake mustache to hide their identities. Obviously there is a lot of room for middle ground here. Anyhow, part of the reason that I find myself distrustful of the current direction of the club is that I don’t put much stock into “sabermetrics” such as WAR, PECOTA, runs created, win shares, VORP, and so forth. I find that there is often discussion (admittedly not within this specific discussion, but often on this blog) about the correctness of the current decisions being made based on reliance upon these statistics. If I don’t believe in the value of a statistical measurement, then I don’t heed an argument that uses said statistic as support for its thesis.

Anyhow, to continue being long-winded here, I was just trying to say that I didn’t want anyone to judge my opinions of the value of this deal based solely on the fact that I don’t believe that management is attempting to build a competitive team.

by JimiL on Jan 22, 2010 7:28 PM EST up reply actions  

So...

What do you base your opinions on that Dotel will be serviceable at best and what does that mean to you?

Also, if you do not believe in the value of measuring performance, how can you know whether your opinion has any merit as to how many they will win or lose? Do you just have a feeling that they will lose 95 games?

The whole idea of the sabermetric stats is to try to determine how much each player contributes to the team and find out if you exchange this player for that player, what is likely to be the difference in wins.

If you don’t believe a system exists that can weigh those decisions, how can you calculate that yourself without such a system?

by MarkInDallas on Jan 22, 2010 9:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Ouija board. Come on Mark, you really couldn’t figure that out?

"I choose to gamble with my life

Twice the risk, four times the prize

Nothing knocks me over"

by lighthouse913 on Jan 25, 2010 1:18 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

So do you put stock in traditional stats like batting average and ERA? Would you use those to help you make the decision or do you look at performance purely subjectively?

by johnnycuff on Jan 23, 2010 2:29 PM EST up reply actions  

So the fact that sabermetrics is so revolutionary for the intellectual jump it caused in the field of statistical analysis that it is now studied at major colleges and universities just doesn’t do anything for you?

No, I won’t call you a crank, but suddenly your thoughts on baseball don’t do anything for me……

"I choose to gamble with my life

Twice the risk, four times the prize

Nothing knocks me over"

by lighthouse913 on Jan 25, 2010 1:03 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Dotel's terms

$3.25M plus bonuses based on games finished.

option: $4.5M for 2011 with 250K buyout, and the option becomes mutual if he is traded.

Can’t say the terms are particularly favorable, not bad but not that great either- depends of course on the bonuses and how easy they are…

by BurgherKing on Jan 21, 2010 10:10 PM EST reply actions  

When you’ve got Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon, neither of whom is as good as Dotel, getting 2/$11M and 3/$15M, respectively, I can live with this. I can also live with the knowledge that our GM hasn’t joined the ranks of the closer fetishists.

by WTM on Jan 21, 2010 10:50 PM EST up reply actions  

That's a decent option.

We might actually pick that up. I’d been expecting something higher, and less reasonable.

by Vlad on Jan 22, 2010 6:26 AM EST up reply actions  

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