Brad Lincoln Should Start Season in Indianapolis

He pitched 23 innings in July with an ERA of 5.09 and 28 innings in August with an ERA of 4.82. It is true that his last two outings in August were just lovely: 11 shutout innings with 1 walk and 11 strikeouts. But 11 innings does not a season make. It seems to me there’s some proving to be done.

I’m assuming you don’t want to hear about the arbitration clock BS because you don’t understand it. It’s why Cutch wasn’t called up until June last year and why Pedro won’t be this year either.

You also might want to watch Morton pitch a few times before lumping him in with the other guys and stop focusing on his losses.

Now see, that doesn’t sound optimistic to me, but I think we’re on the same page. If the Pirates get the first several years of Joe Blanton’s career out of Lincoln, I’ll be pretty happy.

The Giants did wait in order to keep him the extra year, but if they would have waited one week longer, then he wouldn’t have been a Super Two this year. So, they cost themselves between $7.5M and $12.5M for giving him one start during that first week he was up.

That list of top picks makes Bryan Smith at SI look really smart—nice job with the Chamberlain pick. But Smith was probably in the minority. There was widespread skepticism about Lincecum because he was small and had a violent delivery. Not so for Lincoln.

BA’s pre-draft ranking was:

Miller
Lincecum
Lincoln
Longoria
Reynolds
Kershaw
Chamberlain
Hochevar
Scherzer
Morrow
[Chamberlain fell a bunch on draft day due to late-breaking negative health reports.]

Charlie is pretty much correct about Lincecum v. Lincoln. Lincecum was seen as having a slightly higher ceiling, but due to his unusual mechanics he was also seen as a guy who might end up in the pen, or rip his arm up after a year or two. According to the CW, Lincoln had almost as much ceiling, and was also seen as having a higher floor than many of the other comparable pitchers.

When assessing Lincoln’s likely future value, don’t forget to account for his bat. By pitching standards, he’s a VERY good hitter.

…because we have four starters (Maholm, Morton, Duke, and Ohlendorf) who are head-and-shoulders above any other internal alternatives. Letting a NRI unseat one of those guys based on maybe ten innings’ worth of spring play would be a terrible idea.

The fifth starter’s job, in contrast, IS up for competition, between Hart and McCutchen. As such, I’m not really sure what you’re complaining about.

What do you consider average?

would disagree with you, at least on the bad part. And like Mark said, depends what you mean what you consider average. Morton had a pretty good season for his 1st full year starting and his FIP, xFIP and tRA were better than just about everyone but Maholm, see below:

FIP xFIP tRA ERA
Morton 4.15 4.62 4.56 4.55
Ohlendorf 4.72 4.63 5.14 3.92
Duke 4.24 4.31 5.03 4.06
Maholm 3.83 4.23 4.29 4.44

By the numbers, Morton was better than Ohlendorf in all 3 stats and better than Duke in two. I’m guessing you don’t think Duke and Ohlendorf had average seasons last year. Given that, I think you are wrong about Morton. He’ll be just fine next season.

so wins and losses are the stat your using to judge performance. And if that’s all you’re using than I can’t really add anyting else. Duke had 16 losses, should he have to fight for a spot? And where do you get 17 lossed for Morton, everywhere I look shows he was 5-9 in 2009. I think you are looking at his career MLB loss total. Anyway, I understand your point about competition but I think you are really underrating Morton’s performance last season.

is not garbage time for teams still in the race. In fact, it’s the time of year in which a lot of the most competitive baseball is played. You can’t disregard stats at the end of the year anymore than you can disregard the 10 runs he gave up to the Cubs in one game.

some people just having a chip on their shoulder about Morton because of the McLouth deal. Nate is never going to be a huge difference maker on a club. He’s a nice above average player, but not an elite player.

In 2009, Nate’s offense was certainly missed, but come 2010, there’s a very good chance Nate’s offense will already be replaced with either Clement or Tabata in right field.

I think Morton has a chance to be a very special pitcher. If he becomes even 75% of what he could be, that alone is going to make that trade a huge steal for the Bucs.

back and understand a few things. First of all, while not irrelevant, wins and losses are a very poor way to analyze a pitcher’s performance. Statistical analysis has come a long way in this regard which is why a pitcher like Zack Greinke was able to win a Cy this year with only 16 wins. That would have never happened 20, 10 or even five years ago.

Second Morton’s historical performance is significant. To assume 10-20 good innings in spring training by a NRI is more important would be great folly, as Vlad points out.