Strange Comment About Jose Tabata
by Charlie on Jan 31, 2010 5:31 PM EST
112 comments
At about 39:00 in the Neal Huntington interview on Rocco DeMaro's show yesterday, which MarkinDallas recently highlighted in a fanshot:
DeMaro: How old is he really?
Huntington (stammering a little): He's not 30, let's put it that way. I mean, our records, and the people with the Yankees, indicate that his age was legitimate. There's a lot of rumblings that he's really older than what he is. If he's 24, he's still a young player with a great upside. In our minds, we don't really care. We know we've got a good player that's on the verge of the major leagues. It's not like we're talking about a guy that's on the verge of being 30.
Tabata is supposed to be 21, and the idea that his power will eventually come along is predicated on the idea that he's been very young for his leagues. If he's 24, that's a big problem. This isn't the first time anyone has wondered about Tabata's age, but Huntington almost sounds here like he has accepted that Tabata is actually much older.
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Yes, very interesting. You might even surmise that the front office thinks he’s 24…I doubt that was just a random number that popped into Neal’s mind.
If it turned out that he lied on his visa application, would that affect his immigration status?
I think it is fair to be concerned that our GM didn’t know and that the upside Tabata supposedly had might not actually be there.
by Nutting Hostage on Jan 31, 2010 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
Didn't know what?
He’s said over and over that the best information they have is that Tabata is 21. The Yankees said the same thing—these rumors were around long before the Pirates traded for him. You can’t always “know” these things. The Twins don’t “know” if Sano is 16. The MLB investigation was inconclusive.
Not to mention that everyone "knew" Miguel Tejada was younger than he actually is for years.
http://fanhuddle.com/pittsburghpirates
I think
that NH’s premise is that NH had heard rumors about Tabata being older before he was acquired, but didn’t “know” anything more than rumor. Whereas now, having had Tabata for 18 months, he “knows” that Tabata is at least somewhat older than 21.
How would that happen? Just by observing him? The Yankees had Tabata longer than the Pirates have and they insisted to NH that Tabata was whatever age it was at the time. If they lied and Tabata got caught in an agegate situation, the Pirates could demand compensation from the Yankees.
Keep in mind, too — these guys have to apply for a work visa every year, and the Pirates have to make some sort of submission to Immigration. If the Pirates are aware that Tabata isn’t the age listed on his visa and didn’t disclose their knowledge to Immigration, they could be subject to criminal penalties that, among other things, could affect their ability to get visas for any of their players. That’s a colossal risk that no team would take. There’s absolutely no way on earth that the Pirates “know” Tabata is older than he claims.
by WTM on Feb 1, 2010 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
It's a lot harder
To get away with lying about your age these days when entering the country, but it sounds like NH is just covering his bases.
It’s awfully risky, because it could cost him his livelihood. Esmailyn Gonzalez so far hasn’t been able to get back into the country. What a lot of players have done since the checks got more stringent—I think Miguel Tejada was one—is quietly correct their ages to avoid the risk of getting a visa declined.
One thing that never gets mentioned is that Tabata isn’t from the Dominican, where record keeping is haphazard at best. The DR is one of the poorest countries in the hemisphere. Venezuela isn’t even considered a third world country. The agegate thing exists in Venezuela, but isn’t nearly the problem there that it is in the DR.
Venezuela’s per capita income is even lower than the DR’s, so it would certainly seem to qualify as a third-world country. Whenever you’re talking about a country that poor and official records that could help a guy get big bucks stateside, corruption is a real possibility.
No, it’s not. Venezuela’s is nearly double the DR’s.
http://siakhenn.tripod.com/capita.html
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2004rank.html
Have you ever been to Venezuela? I have, the last time being three weeks ago. I’ve also been to a number of third world countries, although not the DR. The transportation system, communications, power systems, general amenities and numerous other key indicators in VZ are far more advanced than in impoverished countries, although Chavez is doing his best to change that.
OK, thanks. The figures I got were from this site and I can see now that they’re from 2003. Venezuela’s gone up quite a bit since then, probably due to the price of oil.
Venezuela’s per capita income has probably gone through some pretty significant cycles based on the price of oil. The country was doing quite well back in the OPEC boom times in the 70s, which is probably when some of the infrastructure originally got built. It’s had ups and downs, but it’s a reasonably modern country.
Hi, I´m a Pirates fan in Venezuela, i just want to say that VTM is right, because of the oil revenues Venezuela is richer than the D.R. and the birth certificates are handled with a better system, in fact i haven´t heard of any venezuelan player caught lying about his age.
P.D. WTM: is a shame you wouldn´t go to a venezuelan baseball game, it´s a really exciting atmosphere
I’ve heard that the games are a lot of fun generally, but I also heard on the news that somebody showed up at one recently with an anti-Chavez sign and got beat up.
It´s true, but that doesn´t happen in every game, usually is a safe enviroment and you can find many women and kids in the crowd. Anyway, i hope you enjoyed your trip to Venezuela
Probably.....
not the place to make a political statement.
I haven´t, the VSL plays outside of Caracas and doesn´t get any attention from the venezuelan media. I saw a few players in the winter league: Ronny Cedeño, Jean Machi, Neil Walker, Ronald Uviedo, Corey Hamman, etc
Machi pitched really well, with control, good velocity and breaking stuff and won the pitcher of the year and the reliever of the year awards, his performance suffered in the playoffs because he pitched a lot during the regular season (36 innings in 63 games). Same thing with Uviedo, he pitched well at the beginning but was tired at the end because of the workload he had as a starter in the minors. Hamman was a nice lefty in the bullpen, he got the job done even aganist righties
When I heard it
I thought his answer was indeed a little strange. But I didn’t get the sense that Huntington actually believes he is 24. It sounded like he was putting it out there as a worst case scenario.
Even if his power never matures fully, I don’t think that means he can’t be a productive member of the team. It just makes him a different type of hitter. I think the question of his age only becomes relevant 4 or 5 years from now when they need to decide whether to extend him or not.
I see Tabata as more of a Chris Coghlan type with good defense, anyway. I think that’s pretty good if he can be that. If he becomes more than that, well, that’s a bonus in my eyes.
Was like 40, which you could possibly look at as a red flag, except Dirk Nowitsky almost fell for the same scam.
by MarkInDallas on Jan 31, 2010 6:25 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t really think his wife’s age (now ex-wife, I believe) would have anything to with his age. I have seen him in person, and I’m almost 100% sure he isn’t 40, or anywhere close to that.
Yeah....
Some guys fall for that scam. And some fall for the pretty girl who pretends to like them while she basically cleans out his checking account and dumps him when he decides to stop paying for her crap. Those girls suck.
by IAPiratesFan on Jan 31, 2010 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
You sound bitter.
and firsthand informed on this particular subject, dude…
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 31, 2010 9:55 PM EST up reply actions
“He’s not 30, let’s put it that way” – Yikes. Jim Callis and Baseball America have made several unsolicited mentions of Tabata’s age question over the past year.
But I think he’s played to the point where he looks like a decent major leaguer. It’s just that the chance of double digit home runs and solid growth from here is much lower.
Probably...
the worst way for NH to start his answer. Maybe I’m being overly pessimistic here, but it scares me that the normally straightforward NH danced a bit on an issue that could greatly affect how one of their top prospects projects.
Whether he's 21 or 24,
what can be done about it now?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 31, 2010 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
I actually thought this comment fit in with his more candid style. He could have said that the Pirates were confident about the records on Tabata’s age, instead of basically admitting they have no clue.
by Adam Reynolds on Jan 31, 2010 10:34 PM EST up reply actions
Would it benefit the PIrates at all?
If he’s still young, then no harm done, but if he’s a few years older, it won’t make the Pirates—or anyone involved with signing Tabata—look good at all. Ignorance is bliss in a situation like this.
No.
I did that to my dog and it just didn’t work out….
by IAPiratesFan on Jan 31, 2010 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure there's anything newsworthy, in what Huntington said
He has a habit of being usually candid for someone in his position.
Generally, as a fan I appreciate this,the exception being those cases when it may have potentially adversely affected his ability to acquire/trade players (his brutally honest jack wilson evaluation comes to mind), but even any effect is speculative.
I think he was simply stating what seems to be common knowledge, that there is suspicion that he’s at least a few years older than his listed age. Obviously a potential concern, but I don’t think he was acknowledging this to be fact, so it doesn’t really change the equation.
By the way, this is my first official post, I started reading the blog last season, and am a big fan of your work Charlie, as well as the insights of many of the contributors.
Huntington saying that Jack Wilson can’t hit (which has to be common knowledge in all 30 front offices) might have affected his trade value? It wasn’t the right thing to say, but it didn’t really have an effect on the proceedings.
by Adam Reynolds on Jan 31, 2010 10:37 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think it did, no. I think we’re on the same page.
I was just acknowledging that his tendency to speak bluntly about players has been criticized on occasion. I think you’re right, certainly he didn’t say anything about jack wilson that came as news to anyone with basic baseball knowledge, which you’d assume his front office peers would have.
There are probably a occasions where he could learn to speak more artfully and consideration about players, but that’s a small complaint as far as I’m concerned.
The home run against Dwight Gooden on opening day ’86 was a real thrill, too.
by Traco Bucco on Jan 31, 2010 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
RJ Reynolds and Johnny Ray…the pillars of any mid 80s Strat-o-Matic Pirates team.
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Feb 1, 2010 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
Johnny Ray was my favorite as a kid.
He nearly led the Bucs to a win in the first game I ever saw, and I was hooked.
I still remember how weird it seemed to my 9-year-old self to see him in an Angels uni in the ’88 All-Star game.
Speaking of NH's candor
I listened to the podcast, and I appreciated his concession that Clement is “a huge question mark” at 1B defensively. You just don’t hear that stuff from GMs, generally.
Venezuela
Vlad Guerrero lied about his age. He’s a Venezuelan.
MLB.com story
Huntington
Anyone see the quote from him on Bryce Harper not being in the top 10 of current Bucco list for next draft?
The one thing he was indeed saying
Is that they don’t see him as the same kind of once-in-a-generation talent that Strasburg is.
Boy, are the SI subscribers going to be pissed off at that. “Hey, doesn’t Huntington even read SI?”
It doesn’t look like Huntington even said that much.
by Adam Reynolds on Feb 1, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
Interpret?
General manager Neal Huntington made a striking pronouncement on the 2010 draft yesterday by telling the PirateFest crowd that Bryce Harper, the Las Vegas catcher dubbed “Baseball’s LeBron” by Sports Illustrated last June, is not currently among the Pirates’ top 10. They pick second. “He’s getting a lot of hype,” Huntington said. “We will scout Bryce Harper. But we’re not going to select him because somebody thinks he’s the best prospect in the history of the game and we think he’s the 10th-best.”
Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10031/1032367-63.stm?cmpid=pirates.xml#ixzz0eJJIyZ5E
My interpretation is: “We haven’t fully looked at or rated him yet, and if we determine in the future that he isn’t on top of our draft board, then we won’t pick him”. This was blown out of nothing by the P-G.
by Adam Reynolds on Feb 1, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
No other team is tipping their hand on the draft this soon. The Nationals have not publicly determined that they would take Harper.
by Adam Reynolds on Feb 1, 2010 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
Actually, everybody else in baseball is saying that Harper is overhyped and that he’s not on a level with Strasburg. Nobody is characterizing him as the top talent in the draft. In contrast, last year everybody was on record about Strasburg walking on water at an early stage. It’s too soon to be asking whether any team will take him. It’s not clear where he stands talent-wise.
by WTM on Feb 1, 2010 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
Having a set top 10...
…would be ludicrous at this point, given that none of these guys have been playing in 2010 yet.
Everybody scouts everybody. The Bucs will look at Harper, just like they’ll look at everybody else projected to go in the first 20+ rounds, and then after all the games are done they’ll build their board.
But we’re not going to select him because somebody thinks he’s the best prospect in the history of the game and we think he’s the 10th-best
he forgot to add
… in this draft
The real question will be whether or not they pursue a pitcher or position player. Harper’s rank would could rise against other position players if pitchers are excluded, but maybe not to the point where the hype would be warranted.
Then again, Sano may or may not be around Harper’s age and he just received $3.15 for pure potential, which is in the neighborhood of #2 slot $. That would be a bargain for the #2 best player drafted, assuming they don’t take someone who’ll settle for slot.
That's taking what Huntington said entirely out of context.
Huntington and Coonelly were talking about how Harper has been elevated to LeBron James-levels of hype, and how it’s totally unfair to the kid. Huntington was talking about hypothetical rankings, which included his own. I can’t believe DK could take those words out of context, since he was in attendance at the Q-and-A. He really needs to print a correction on that one.
by Kidspud on Feb 1, 2010 5:01 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
The opening ceremony isn't until the 12th.
Not that there isn’t a lot to cover in the build-up, but I think he could print a one-line or one-paragraph clarification. I think it would be more about whether he wants to or not.
What makes the matter even worse for DK...
is that even Keith Law tweeted that Huntington never meant that Harper wasn’t in the Bucs top ten and that he was speaking hypothetically. That was a poorly written article by DK.
I find it especially aggravating because it should be a simple matter to ask NH whether he was literally saying the Pirates don’t consider Harper one of the ten top prospects in the draft, or whether he was speaking hypothetically. I don’t have that kind of access, but Dejan and Chuck Finder do.
I thought I read in the comments section of the PG blog...
that you asked DK to clarify and he said that NH was speaking figuratively. Did I remember that correctly? If so, it’s kind of surprising that DK didn’t clarify that in an update given the feedback his post generated.
Yeah, but then later Dejan responded to another comment and claimed NH literally said Harper wasn’t in their top ten. I can’t imagine they’ve got a “top ten” now. It’d be a complete waste of time.
Well, Dejan e-mailed me this quote and said it was OK to post it. I think it’s appeared in print by now, but in any case:
No. There’s light years difference in the two players. Stephen Strasburg is an advanced college pitcher, arguably the best amateur college pitcher ever, someone who has two wipeout pitches right now. We applaud the Washington Nationals for selecting him and are a little bit envious. We like Bryce Harper, but I can’t tell you Bryce Harper is right now in our top 10. He’s getting a lot of hype and publicity. I almost feel bad for the guy because he’s going to have to live up to being the next LeBron James. LeBron James is a once-in-a-lifetime athlete. … We will scout Bryce Harper. We will put him on our board and, if he’s the right player, we’ll take him. We’re not just going to pick a player because publications think he’s the best prospect in the history of the game and we think he’s the 10th-best.
Dejan definitely reads that as saying Harper is not in the team’s top ten. I doubt they have a top ten yet and I think the quote is ambiguous at best. It sounds more like a hypothetical to me. You “can’t tell” people he’s in your top ten if you don’t have one yet.
by WTM on Feb 2, 2010 6:50 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
DK is just wrong here IMO...
I read that over three times and it is clear to me NH is speaking hypothetically. Plus I don’t get his repsonse to your question. Why did he tell you NH was speaking figuratively then later stick so firmly to the “Harper not in the top 10” stance?
I will say this
Huntington strongly implies that Harper is not at the top of their list and he doesn’t feel Harper is a once-in-a-lifetime athlete.
He doesn’t say he feels sorry for Strasburg for having to try to live up to the hype, and Strasburg has been hyped more than Harper.
by MarkInDallas on Feb 2, 2010 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
Meaning...
Huntington may vaguely think of Harper as 5th-15th. Who knows? The Pirates pick #2, so if Harper isn’t one of the top 2, who cares? Unless he falls to the 2nd round of course.
by MarkInDallas on Feb 2, 2010 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
That's pretty much the consensus scouting line, is all.
If you look over at BA, for example, they all like Harper, but none of them think that he’s in Strasburg’s league at this point.
I get that too...
and I also think the article implies that if he proves to be a premier talent through his performance in JUCO that NH wouldn’t hesitate to select him. Now whether or not he’d be willing to pay him like a once in a lifetime prospect is another question and early indications suggest he would not. I guess it all depends how things shake out in JUCO. Personally I wouldn’t give a 16 yr old Strasburg money. I’d have a hard time giving him Pedro money.
Back to Tabata -At whatever age, is he ready to help this team mid year
If he is 24 years old and come mid year is called up, is he able to help this team as much as Cutch did last year. As we know, Cutch took over CF after the trade, will Tabata take over RF? I know his power is not there, but he led the AZ league in doubles and had some triples also, so gap power seems to be there. Obviously, he tightened up his swing to cut down on SO which also must hurt the HRs. What do you all think or is he now just an average 24 year old minor leaguer????
Has the Potential to be Average to Above Average
Tabata IS NOT going to be a Clemente or Bonds but he could become a Bonilla – above average but not great. The big question is would you want him to hit .260 with 25 – 30 HRs or .290 with 15 – 20 HRs? The fundamental problem the Pirates continue to have is NOBODY on the roster has shown consistant power and you can’t create that player. The Cards have Pujols and Holliday. It would be nice if we had one comparable player.
If Alvarez can strike out less than 30% of the time...
he will hit 40 HRs soon into his MLB career. I’ve got no doubt. But I also have doubts that he will K less than 30% of the time.
Why?
He only K’d in 24% of PAs last year, which was his first pro season after ~10 months off. He’ll face tougher competition in the future, but the pedigree and history suggest he’ll be able to adjust (improved K rates as he progressed through college, and improved upon promotion to AA [SSS]).
Are your doubts about him based on scouting or on a study of how minor league K rates translate?
His K:AB ratio was 27% in AA. His K:AB ratio in USA baseball was 30%. With those types of skills right now, he would K at a higher rate in MLB. The question is how much higher?
When he gets his K:AB rate down around 20% in AAA, then I will be a believer.
His performance in USA baseball looks pretty good until you compare it to that of his teammates. Then you see it was below average for the team. He led the team in Ks.
We’ll see…
I see. I didn’t realize you were using K/AB. In that case, 27% isn’t worrisome for a 22-year-old at AA in his first pro season. CHONE projects him to K in 33% of ABs if he played in the majors this year. That is consistent with your analysis, but anyone would struggle with jumping from half a season at AA straight into MLB. If all you’re saying is that that’s where his skill level is right now, I’ll accept that, but I don’t think it’s troubling in the least.
It’s not unusual for a high-patience, high-power hitter to K 25-30% of the time, and it’s not that rare for such players to be up over 30%: Jim Thome, Ryan Howard, Mark Reynolds, Adam Dunn, etc. There’s no reason to be down on Alvarez because he’s that type of player. As I said in another thread, the worst-case scenario is that he strikes out at a Mark Reynolds level and can’t play third-base, but even in that case, he’s got the power and patience to be a 1b version of Reynolds (.257/.338/.500 career). The upside, even with the high K rate, is someone like Thome.
I think you’re asking too much to expect a 20% K/AB from him. There aren’t too many players who can sustain high walk rates, high BAbips, and high ISOs while cutting the Ks down that much. It reads to me like you’re saying that Ryan Howard isn’t good enough, and you won’t be a believer until he’s Prince Fielder.
I just look at these stats as indicators of current skill at that level. In MLB, pitchers are going to be better at missing bats than in AAA, who are going to be better than AA pitchers.
From my own observations, the best chance a hitter has at showing he can make consistent contact in MLB is the K:AB rate in AAA.
Ryan Howard is one of the rare hitters who had a 30% K:AB rate in AAA and kept that K:AB rate at around 30% in MLB without sacrificing contact quality. But for every guy like that, there are many like Brian Bixler or Brandon Moss who have 30% Ks in AAA and then really struggle in MLB.
It doesn’t guarantee you won’t have issues with Ks – for example Clement had a 20% rate before getting called up with the Mariners, and then struggled mightily with Ks for 2 months before he began to improve.
I just look at that as a benchmark for gauging possible readiness. For line drive hitters, I like to see it closer to 10%-12%.
So, I’m not saying Pedro can not improve his skill level at all. I’m just saying that I don’t see him as ready yet, and he seems farther away than Tabata is, for example.
If Pedro continues to have a 30% K rate at Indy for 2 months, then I would have to look at OBP and BA to see if it might be worth giving him a shot, and I couldn’t be confident he would have the tools to excel out of the box like Howard did.
I see. I totally agree that he’s not ready for the majors yet.
However, I would question analysis based on the hitters you cite as examples. Bixler’s sample size in MLB is too small too to be a basis for judgment, Moss has Kd less in MLB than he did in AAA, and Howard is awesome. Basically, my initial question was whether there’s some sort of empirical evidence that should suggest we worry about Alvarez’s K rates. I’m generally not comfortable with an opinion based on a few random examples.
But in the end I think we agree: Alvarez isn’t ready for MLB right now, and his performance in AAA will determine his readiness over the course of 2010. I’m sure you’ll agree that despite Alvarez not being ready right now, he’s still an excellent prospect, despite the Ks.
Oh yeah. Alvarez is a great prospect and if he can make enough contact, he’s going to be a monster. I should have said – if Alvarez’s K:AB rate is 30% in MLB, that will probably be OK. In fact, I pretty much expect that’s what it’s going to be. But, like Ryan Howard, that’s fine as long as you are hitting the ball 500 feet a good portion of the time you do hit it.
What I am concerned about is his Ks this year in AAA, because I don’t want him to K at 35% or higher in MLB.
On the Moss and Bixler comparisons, I picked those specifically because they are 2 examples of what can happen if a batter struggles with contact. In Bixler’s case, he wasn’t able to shorten the swing to make contact and Ks became more of a problem in MLB. In Moss’s case, he was doing everything he could to make contact and that really cut down on the quality of it.
Neither one of those (in my mind) showed that they had the skills to be successful and then were not able to figure it out once they got there.
I would just like to see Alvarez have those tools before he comes up.
4 players hitting 20 HR = 2 hitting 40
Tabata, Cutch, Doumit, and Clement (only missing the e)
Alavarz – icing on the cake
A lot depends on this year
If he makes Pittsburgh this year and plays well, then I think the age concern more or less goes away – whether 21 or 24 (and I agree with the idea that NH mentioned that number because, in his mind, that’s the worst likely scenario), we control him through his peak years and before his decline years. Per Chuck Finder’s Q&A today, Tabata’s presumed power isn’t based just on a “projectable” body – the guy is already decently beefy.
IOW, if he were a skinny kid, then turning out to be 24 would be an awful sign, indicating that he might never fill out. But if he’s already filling out, and if he’s ready for the bigs this year (a question mark, no doubt), then the age shift doesn’t scare me.
But if 2010 is a step backwards at AAA, then we could start worrying about his age.
and Tabata has been playing professionally for several years in a time where visas receive greater scrutiny. I’d be surprised if something surfaced now that didn’t surface 2-3 years ago.
He’s been pretty well vetted at this point, and if they got it wrong already I don’t see how they’d now get it right. It seems more likely that he’s just get away with it and we’d never know even if there is any truth to the rumors.
And isn’t it just a given that we’d move him for prospects as soon as he costs anything, and his more advanced age declining years would get picked up by another team buying spoiled merchandise with a false expiration date?
Just more Huntington double talk.....
We don’t know or care how old Tabata is….
We think we know how old Tabata is…
Huntington is a public relations nightmare.
As General Manager of a MLB team, not only should he know and care how about the age of one of his top prospects, he should be accountable for it as well.
Just another example of Teflon Huntington.
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