…“max out their potential”. That’s why stars are rare. You’ve got ceiling, and you’ve got floor, and you’ve got a whole bunch of space in between.

Jimmy Anderson was basically a league-average fifth starter from 1999-2001, before collapsing in 2002. That has at least a minimal amount of value.

Benson was a star-level performer in 1999 and 2000, a mid-rotation starter in 2004 and 2005, and below average but still useful in 2002, 2003, and 2006. That may be disappointing given the hopes that many held for him, but it’s actually pretty close to an average return on a #1 overall pick.

Benson was chosen in 1996 – take a look at the other #1s from 1980 to 2005, and how they turned out. For unambiguous stars, you’ve got Darryl Strawberry, Ken Griffey Jr., Chipper Jones, Alex Rodriguez, Adrian Gonzalez, and Joe Mauer (with Justin Upton looking like he belongs, but not yet a given). For unambiguous busts, you’ve got Shawn Abner, Brien Taylor, Bryan Bullington, and Matt Bush (with Delmon Young looking like he belongs, but not a given). Everyone else is somewhere in the middle – a solid contributor, but not a star. Benson’s career is more-or-less on a par with that of Paul Wilson or Ben McDonald or Jeff King or Darin Erstad. It’s not dynamic, but it’s about what you should expect.

Among pitching prospects in the #6-10 overall range, from 1990 on, you’ve got:

1990: Kiki Jones (6 – Never made the majors.)
1991: Arthur Rhodes (6 – Unsuccessful as a starter, long career as a lefty reliever.)
1992: Frank Rodriguez (9 – Made the majors, but relatively unsuccessful. Seven-year career, 5.53 ERA.)
1992: Pedro Martinez (10 – Probable Hall of Famer.)
1993: Todd Van Poppel (7 – Unsuccessful as a starter, modestly successful as a reliever.)
1993: Jason Bere (8 – Two strong years as a starter, then arm surgery and a relatively undistinguished career thereafter.)
1993: Allen Watson (9 – Five decent years as a starter, fairly marginal thereafter.)
1993: Tyrone Hill (10 – Never made the majors.)
1994: James Baldwin (8 – Seven years as a starter, ranging between #3 and #5-type performances.)
1994: Jose Silva (10 – We kind of know how that turned out.
1996: Livan Hernandez (8 – Long career as a starter. Up and down performances, but on the whole pretty solid.)
1998: Matt White (6 – Never made the majors.)
1998: Carl Pavano (9 – Still active, still starting, up-and-down career with many injury problems.)
1999: Ryan Anderson (7 – Never made the majors.)
1999: Matt Clement (10 – Seven full seasons as a starter, two star-level campaigns. Out of baseball.)
2000: Ryan Anderson (9 – See 1999.)
2000: John Patterson (10 – One star-level campaign in 2005, but otherwise never healthy. Out of baseball.)
2001: C.C. Sabathia (7 – Star-level performer, still active.)
2001: Ryan Anderson (8 – See 1999, 2000.)
2002: Juan Cruz (6 – Moderately successful reliever, still active.)
2003: Jose Contreras (6 – 31-year-old Cuban defector, so definitely a non-traditional “prospect”. Still active, up-and-down performer but probably a #3 starter on the whole.)
2003: Gavin Floyd (9 – Took a while to get established, successful starter the last two years, still active.)
2003: Francisco Rodriguez (10 – Star-level performer in relief, still active.)
2004: Greg Miller (8 – Still active, hasn’t made the majors due to arm and control problems.)

22 pitchers, after removing repeat Anderson seasons. Three of them developed into unambiguous stars (Pedro, Sabathia, and K-Rod). One more wasn’t consistently star-level, but still had a career that was in my opinion significantly more successful than Benson’s (Livan). As for everyone else… would we really have been significantly better off if we’d ended up with Matt Clement’s career, or Carl Pavano’s, or James Baldwin’s, rather than Benson’s? I don’t really see it…

Anyway, as you can see, the expected fail rate for even top-pedigree pitching prospects is pretty high.