Zach Duke Pitches Last Game In A Pirates Uniform
by Charlie Wilmoth on Oct 1, 2010 3:44 AM EDT
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PrintWell, probably, anyway. I won't exactly miss him, but I'll miss the 2005 version of him - you know, the one with life on his fastball, the one who had a lot of snap on his curveball, the one who set batters up effortlessly. I also tend to agree with those who pointed out in the comments here a few days ago that bringing Duke back might not be a bad idea, given how bad the free agent market is. Sure, the Pirates could sign a Kevin Millwood, who just might be an upgrade given the Pirates' defensive woes - but if Millwood is in fact an upgrade, he isn't a big one. And expecting the Pirates do do better than someone like Millwood is probably expecting too much.
Anyway, Duke got a very raw deal in Pittsburgh with all the poor defenses he had to pitch in front of, but what's done is done there, and there's no point lamenting that a guy deserved to be average. Here's hoping he can finally find a team with a defense who can make him look that way.
I've just been digging through the archives here trying to find fun Zach Duke stuff. According to Bucs Dugout's search engine, this will be the 291st post in which I've mentioned him here. Anyway:
-P- Remember when John Russell pulled Duke in the ninth and everyone got angry? That was fun.
-P- I predict the improvement in Duke's numbers from 2008 to 2009. (I also say nice things about Ryan Doumit and Andy LaRoche, but whatever.)
-P- Way back in 2008, I whine about Duke and the Pirates' defense.
-P- This is just mean, but still kind of funny.
-P- Paul Maholm describes Duke, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny and himself as "a pretty good core."
Oh well. Bucs Dugout was a pretty sad place back then. It's funny, though - BD opened in June 2005, right around when Duke was starting his major-league career. I had another blog for a year before that and I remember writing breathlessly about Duke when he was all the way down in Lynchburg. (Please, don't go hunting for that.) The only other current Pirates who were on that 2005 team were Doumit and Maholm, both of whom were also rookies that year. I wonder how long it will be before both of them are gone too.
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Goodbye Zach!!!
I think it’s going to be interesting to see what Zach Duke gets on the open market (especially with the FA starting pitching class being so weak this off-season). I forget sometimes that Duke’s career ERA is still just 4.54. I imagine a one-time All-Star, soft-tossing lefty with a career 4.54 ERA, these days, will sign a pretty decent contract to be like a #4 pitcher in somebody’s rotation, with the potential to push up to being a #3. Will be interesting! (Plus, it will give the Pirates a good indication of how much of a market there is for Paul Maholm.)
Keep him
I say keep him. I don’t see anything else better at a price point that’s similar. I also think he’s likely to be somewhat better in 2011 (back to his normal average). I still think the PBC should look for a SP but I don’t see anything better for the price.
Yinzers uber alles
still harping on Duke getting a raw deal because of the defense
Duke’s pitching is too much for ANY team with a good defense, much less a bad one like we have in Pittsburgh. Its time for Zach to start over somewhere else.
What do you see?
In Duke? BP fastball gets torched. He’s good in 1 out of 5 outings. He should be a AAA pitcher.
The defense isn’t why duke sucks. Duke is why duke sucks. Quit given this guy a break. He’s had 1 good year FIVE YEARS ago! Let it go! He sucks, and is a bum just like you people who think he’s good with a defense.
Get knowledge
by Jake The Snake1 on Oct 1, 2010 3:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well, I guess you certainly put me in my place Snake1!
OK, I’m convinced Duke sucks.
By the wau, Is it me or is your post reflect the very definition of irony?: "telling someone to “Get knowledge” because that person believes a groundball, pitch to contact pitcher, on a team with horrible defense would actually have better results on a team with a good defense."
That’s ironic right? It’s ironic because you are the dumb one for thinking defense doesn’t play a role in a pitcher’s results? I don’t know, maybe ironic isn’t the right word. Maybe you are just wrong for thinking defense isn’t important and not dumb. Nope I know, you are wrong and dumb! Thanks for helping me come to this realization Snake!
Yikes, that's "...by the way, is it me or does your post reflect the very definition of irony?"
Sorry for the typos.
Ironic, innit?
Heh.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 1, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Not so fast
I’m not a big Duke fan (or hater) and I’ve certainly been frustrated by him. However, as has been pointed out repeatedly, the defense is part of the issue. Further, I think that the bigger problem is that on the Bucs Duke has been cast by default as a top 2 pitcher when he is more of a 4th or 5th starter on a team with a good defense.
I think it would be folly to dump him quickly as seems to be the plan. Besides, which free agent are we going to sign and how does his cost/performance compare to what we’d expect out of Duke? Then again, I’m of the thought that it is still too early to be trading any of our top 10 or 15 prospects to get better in 2011.
Good day.
If that WAS Duke's last game for us...
…it was certainly a fitting send-off, with the defense supporting him to the tune of three errors in four innings.
Vlad
This was a game that has highlighted the Duke debate on here.
You certainly can make a case that the defense was putrid.
You can also look at some hard hit balls. The one Stanton hit maybe the longest one I’ve ever seen a guy hit on a low outside fastball.
of course the defense is putrid
but enough about Duke being failed by it. mcdonald seems to be doing fairly well with the same iron gloves behind him. even ohlendorf was doing fine. morton is pitching better… all with the same friggen defense. enough. duke is hittable.
Why don't you understand that they are different pitchers?
Duke i a pitch to contact GB pitcher. MacDonald is a FB/strikeout pitcher who doesn’t need as much defense behind him. These are not small distinctions by any means! Maholm is a much better comp and look at the year he is having!
this is what Duke said after last nights game
“I’ve performed at a level that could merit firing,” Duke said when asked if it he thought about this potentially being his final start in black and gold. “If that happens, it’s out of my control. If it happens, it happens.”
Well I guess he could have come out and said my team mates suck...
Would be better if he had said, "I probably wouldn’t have to be worried about getting fired if even one person on the field behind me could catch a ball at better than a fourth grade level. He could have said, “did you see our savior over there a 3B miss that ball hit right to him? I mean he didn’t even have to move. And I Don’t know what the hell is up with Ronny latley. I meant he looked good early in the season but ever since JR said he was the starter next year, he couldn’t catch ghonnorea in a 3rd world whore house. And man what can I say about Garrett? He looks the part at first but can’t even throw a baseball from 1st to 2nd, AND HE IS A LEFTY!!! And Neal, yeah he has been an improvement over the fat toad we had plopped on the field catching flies earlier this year but that’s not saying a whole lot. Neil’s pretty athletic and I know he is learning the position on the run but that doesn’t help me any when the ball is hit a couple of feet to his right or left and he can’t get there because he has a 3B’s body. So in summary, wow, yeah, I have been pretty bad this year but I can’t help but think if my boys Freddy and Jack were still here that things wouldn’t have gone differently. Oh well.”
I'm not.
I just don’t like the fact that people are making him out to be worse than he is. I don’t think he is anything more than a serviceable back of the rotation starter but it seems like Pittsburgh fans would like to string him up and hang him with Adam Laroche. And we can have another long debate about how advanced pitching stats don’t measure how hard groundballs are hit all day long but it doesn’t change the fact that the type of pitcher Duke is means he needs defense. Same goes for Maholm. And let’s not underestimate how bad this defense is. It’s epicly bad. The are last in UZR and they are last in fielding % which means they don’t even make the plays that are right to them. They are awful. And to suggest that this defense has not played a significant role in Duke’s struggels is, no offense, luncay.
I guess I have a hard time understanding the argument
that our bad defense hurts Duke so much more than it does other pitchers and that is why his ERA is so bad.
For instance, comparing him to McDonald, Duke strikes out about 3 less hitters per 9 innings so that’s 3 extra balls in play per nine innings than McDonald allows as a result of this factor. Let’s say our defense converts 10% less balls in play to outs than a solid above average defense does so that is .3 extra hits per nine innings that we can pin on the defense or about 1 hit every 4 starts.
At the very least it seems like something less than lunacy for some to believe that this 1 hit every 4 starts is at the root of Duke’s problem.
by WestCoastBuc on Oct 1, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Where does your 10% number come from?
Because I would argue that it is much more than that. I don’t think people realize just how awful this defense is right now. Truly one of the worst I’ve ever seen and I’m not exaggerating.
Also, the mistake you are making, IMO, is to assume that Duke is the only one suffering when our advanced pitching stats are nearly a run less than our team ERA. THe only pitchers on the team that have an ERA lower than their FIP are relief pitchers. Maholm has certainly been hurt by the defense. Morton while bad on his own was certainly hurt by his defense. MacDonald has been around half a season but in addition to being a K pitcher he is a FB pitcher. MacDonald has a 30% GB % while Duke’s is at 48% and I would argue that our IF defense is much worse than our OF defense so it’s not fair to compare Duke or Maholm to MacDonald like everyone seems to want to do. Why is it that when you guys make this argument don’t you compare Duke to Maholm who is clearly the closest comp on the staff to Duke?
I used 10% as an estimate but I think
it is probably less than that; it seems like I’ve seen comparissons cited between good and bad defensive teams and the dfferences were around 5%. Maybe someone who understands how to find data like that can help us here.
There could be a lot of merit to your GB/FB argument but I don’t know how to convincingly show that that is the case.
The reason I used McDonald instead of Maholom is that the former has the higher K rate and what I read all the time from Duke supporters is that pitchers with a high K rate are less dependent on their defense. It never seemed to me that it would make that much differnce as I tried to show.
Also, I’m not really trying to make an argument against Duke; I’m just trying to understand better the argument for him. The Pirates are almost never on TV out here so I rarely get to see them play and have to base my opinions on the box scores and what I read here. From the box scores Duke seems pretty bad but maybe there is more to the story.
by WestCoastBuc on Oct 1, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough...
But please keep in mind that my entire argument is that Duke is not as bad as people are making him out to be and that with a good defense behind him (particularly IF defense) I could see him putting up an ERA anwhere between 4.25 – 4.5. I can see him under 4.00 on an a top tier defense. Anyway, Duke is a grounball pitcher with a contact % over 80% and almost half of the balls in play are on the ground. Now UZR has our IF defense as pretty bad with only Cedeno as a positive defender and the plus/minus system hates us having every player as a negative defender (not just a little negative either, negative as in -8 or worse type bad). Additionally, I have watched nearly every game and I can tell you that in this case it seems the defensive stats line up pretty close with what I observed with my eyes. I don’t think we really need to go farther than that to prove that Duke has been hurt by his defense. Though you will have to dig farther to find out how bad he was hurt; well you do if you don’t buy advanced stats like xFIP or tERA.
On related topic, SIERRA might be the more appropriate stat to use here. A few weeks ago I heard Adam Reynolds and Vlad talking about it so I researched it a little more and I’m intrigued. I don’t reference it much because I’m still learning and evaluating it but it looks like it could have more predictive value than some of the other advanced stats being used. It’s a newer stat that Baseball Prospectus came out with and has some nuances the others don’t. One unique aspect that may be appropriate here is that it rewards a GB pitcher for throwing more grounders than normal and penalizes them for throwing fewer. Anyway I let my subscription elapse so I don’t think I can get to those stats anymore. It might interest you to check it out though.
OK, thanks for the detailed reply
I’ll try to look into quetions like this when I have plenty of time, which unfortunately, is not now.
Another defense for McD v Duke
James wasn’t here when we had Aki, Andy, Clement, Milledge and Doumit full time. The overall defense now, while still bad, is better than the start of the year imo
It's not much better.
Milledge has been better or the same as his replacement. Aki was horrid but Walker is learning the position and has no range and Snyder has been an upgrade but not the huge upgrade I expected him to be. So yeah, the defense is a little better possibly but not much. Keep in mind that Alvarez didn’t start the year at third and Cedeno was above average in the 1st half but has really stunk over the last 8-10 weeks.
And I didn't make this a McDonald vs Duke argument...
I would take MacDonald over Duke any day of the week. My argument is Duke is not as bad as everyone is making him out to be and is an acceptable back of the rotation starter on a team with good defense.
Next season...
we will probably see how well Duke does with a good defense. It just won’t be in Pittsburgh.
Yeah, that's a big part of it for me, too.
I can’t stand these periodic Two Minute Hates that we as a fan base seem to engage in every year. Particularly when the guy hasn’t actually done anything of consequence wrong.
and hasnt done anything worth signing long term either
im not hating on the guy. i want him to succeed. but 5 years of BLAH? and now the FO has to decide on what to do with him? let him go; might be the best thing for the club AND him.
Who says anything about signing him long-term?
I want them to take him to arb this offseason. That’s a one-year deal.
We need to decide to tender or not-tender...
…before we’ll have a real chance to explore the FA market.
of course
vlad, what do you think the FO is going to do? not what vlad would do. tender, non tender?
They're going to non-tender him.
And then either end with a similar pitcher for more money, a worse pitcher for the same money, or a lousy pitcher on the cheap.
It’s unfortunate, but there it is.
We have that already in Karstens. I think we need to tender 1 of these 2 to at least have a backup plan.
I think NH has indicated strongly that Karstens will be back...
I read a quote from him a few weeks ago where he said that Karstens has really shown the team his value.
of course the defense has made it worse
but Duke has been pretty much bad for 5 years. he’ll tease you with a good start once a month then get bombed the next two. i WANT him to succeed, he is a pirate after all. but its more than the defense causing his problems. his career BA against is over .300. His BA against this season is the highest in all of baseball amongst qualified starters. his pitching is NOT improving with age. if your BA against is over .300 for your career, it means you are hittable, good defense or not.
The defense does hurt Duke BUT
again, I go to a majority of games/ year, his stuff has regressed. His fastball no longer has the sinking tail, his curve has slowed down so much that it’s almost a ephis ball, just gravity bringing it down. He’s been hit hard, his only good games are when he has an ump w/ a spare 6" outside corner.
So while defense has hurt, it’s far from the only cause of his horrible year. I honestly cant believe they throw him out there every 5th day and decide to throw a AAA guy who’s numbers were better than your #1 pitching prospect in middle relief (RESOP). NH really hasn’t a clue on how to manage a MLB roster…NONE. I believe he’s calling every shot, JR is his puppet. That it doesn’t matter if you perform or if you win, the we aren’t judged by wins and losses is a weak minded excuse (esp from a supposed leadership role like GM)
What’s scary is that Maholm’s stuff has really regressed much like Duke. I am hoping w/ the right leadership, (winning attitude from top down) that he regains some interest and regains that “EDGE” back again.
With each post you make, I become more and more astounded
that you are not employed by a Major League Baseball team somewhere.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 2, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course, that's Stanton.
He hits a lot of hard balls against pretty much everybody. That’s kind of his thing, y’know?
Tough call on what to do with Duke..
Looks to me like we’ll be deficient on defense at SS, RF, 1B with hopefully average defense at the other positions if all things go right.
That’s just not enough to be able to pay Duke and have any confidence his numbers will improve. If management was ready to begin the great shift of Walker to 3rd, Pedro to 1st, defense-minded 2B FA, then I’d be willing to spend some money on Duke..
Otherwise, no point in spending a bunch of money for Duke to get burned when any number of guys will accomplish the same thing.
Any number of guys...
Are you speaking of those which we already have (Burres, No Relation, etc.), or someone we’d sign from the FA market (discussed ad nauseum in other posts) for about the same money that would be/not be an upgrade?
I’m unclear on who you propose take his spot in the rotation.
Not being snarky – I really want to know.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 1, 2010 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions
I know the question wasn't for me, but if anyone wants to know my plan, here it is.
Try like crazy to trade Duke to someone before it’s time to decide whether to tender him or not. If it proves impossible to do, because teams know he’s being non-tendered (sort of like Capps last year), then go ahead and drop him.
It would seem, then, that, barring a trade, there would be three locks for the rotation: Ohlendorf, Maholm, and McDonald. I’d be content with signing Karstens to his first-year arb tender to fill the fourth spot (the slight drop-off in production is offset by the large drop-off in cost), and using any of Morton, Lincoln, Veal (if healthy and capable of starting), McCutchen, Resop, or whatever other viable options we have.
Use the money saved by Karstens’ first-year arb tender over Duke’s third-year one to upgrade the defense by whatever means you see fit – Mark Ellis seems to be the popular option around these parts, and I wouldn’t have a problem with him.
All this said, I wouldn’t be that upset if we decided to tender and keep Duke, but I see Karstens as a perfectly viable and less expensive option in his stead.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
that does make a lot of sense
karstens can give you similar numbers to a decent duke start, and cost much much less.
Pretty much agree
Although I wouldn’t guarantee a spot to Karstens yet, even though there’s a good chance he’d win it outright.
Karstens is less expensive...
…and potentially viable, as long as you recognize and accept that he’s due for significant regression for next season (as in a 5+ ERA).
I don’t extremely dislike Karstens, Lincoln, Morton, Resop as starters, but you can’t expect any of them to be better than Duke next season. Maybe Lincoln if his stuff is back, but not the others.
by Adam Reynolds on Oct 1, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Brad looked good last night
the curveball was tight with good placement, I think he hit 94-96 with the FB and I even saw a nice changeup that got a swing and miss. I’d expect a vet on a NRI, non-guaranteed, or cheap deal to be in the mix with Lincoln and Morton.
Either way, it doesn't matter who takes his spot..
If the defense doesn’t improve, it won’t matter if it’s Milwood, Westbrook, Burres, DCutch, or Burres, there’s going to be struggles.
If the team is content with the “growing pains” of struggling on defense, particularly with Walker and Pedro learning diffucult positions, then there is no other choice but to non-tender Duke.
Personally, I like keeping Walker at 2nd, moving Pedro to 1st, and looking for a 3rd baseman.
How about convincing Mike Lowell out of retirement or Miguel Tejada for 3rd? Maybe try a trade for David Freese in St. Louis? Just thinking outside the box here.
Lowell's hip is probably too bad at this point.
And I don’t trust Tejada at all.
Freese would be OK, at the right price.
Lowell?
You’ve got to be kidding. First, he can barely walk let alone play ball. Second, why in the world would he come to the Pirates? He’s probably more popular in Boston than Papi and has way too much to lose.
Yinzers uber alles
At this point it seems the FO is content to give Pedro 1 more year at 3B. I’d be ok with your plan but another option(assuming my first sentence is true) is bring in a 2B and put Walker in RF. NW can get time backing up 2B also which opens up PT for Milledge/Bowker. Bring in a FA for 1B or let Bowker/Jones/Pearce fight it out and hope to get league avg. production there.
Interesting...
I see Walker being able to handle the OF better than 2B. His bat plays better at 2B but I just don’t see his defense improving enough to be a huge asset there. OF is an interesting option if he hits like he has this year. I think he is athletic enough, and has a strong enough arm to play there. I think he is staying at 2B though for at least one more season as well.
Curious why you don’t think Walker can get better at 2B. He seems toolsy enough and the example of guys like Rickie Weeks and Robinson Cano shows that even guys that start poorly at the position can and do improve.
I’m a lot less optimistic about Pedro at 3B, but it seems to me that Walker has a decent chance to an averageish 2B.
I wouldn't say I don't think he can get better...
I think he will with more practice and experience but I just don’t see that “quick twitch reflex” that is present with many above average middle infielders. He is big and fast for his size but he is not quick for a middle infielder and I’m skeptical that quickness can be learned. I think positioning can help but I believe it will only take you so far. I hope I’m wrong and Walker can be a league average defender while putting up wOBA’s from .350 -.370. He would be a + 5 WAR player in that scenario and we could definitely use a couple of those. Nice examples with Weeks and Cano by the way. If Walker improves like Cano I’d be thrilled.
Yup
I think it’s more about range than anything. Like moving a S to CB in football. Walker is quick and athletic for a safety but he just doesn’t have the hips and acceleration to be a cornerback.
Perhaps
the Bucs should consider hiring LeBeau as Def. Coordinator!
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 2, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah, that 8 2/3 game brought back memories.
sob
Turns out the REAL story from that game was that neither of those guys (LaRoche and Duke) would even approach being that good all season.
Different issues ...
did anyone see Neal’s quotes on MLBtraderumors.com that JR may not be back?
Interesting.
Reassign Russell
to Altoona. He’s under contract for next year anyway. If he quits we’re off the hook for having to pay him.
Just for reference:
I’m really sick of having to re-iterate the sabermetric case for Duke. So I’m not going to do it again in this thread. If you want to read it, go back in the archives (and if you don’t, don’t).
But
if the FO is unwilling to shift Pedro or NW and no SS can be found… it’s all moot.
Round peg (Duke) Square hole (our D).
This is true...
than the question becomes: trade Maholm for whatever you can get before the season starts? or keep him and wait for him to devalue himself even farther like Duke did this year?
but with the year he just had and his salary I wonder if you’re looking at an Adam Laroche/Eric Hinske type return. Then it just becomes a salary dump. I think the best plan is to hope the D improves somewhat and he gets lucky for 2 months. Then ship him to the Dodgers or Rangers and call up one of the fab four.
Duke needs a fresh start to light a fire under his a**
The constant losing plus making decent coin and having a hot wife have made him complacent.
A new team will motivate him to be the best he can be. If not, he’ll be out of a job.
Duke
He can’t get away with good location on his pitches, if you can’t locate and do well, you have to depend on luck, enough of it that they hit the ball right to your fielders and they catch everything, because if they mess one up, Duke is not going to overcome it.
Your Last Sentence about Duke/Maholm/Dohmit on 2005 team very significant
These three, along with JR who was 3rd base coach, should all be jettisoned in the off season to CLEANSE the Pirates of what I call “the acceptance of sucking” mentality that is so obviously engrained in all four of these perennial losers. Get rid of these four sad sacks who never crack a smile, and we’ll see big improvement next year.
From everything I’ve read about Doumit, he’s the last person who should be accused of accepting sucking.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Oct 1, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think he's happy about sucking, but his contribution to it is so great for so long
that Bucs should move on…
Duke
I think this subject has been posted to death, but ….
1. I think Duke projects as a #5 starter on a decent team.
2. Vlad’s statistical projections are reasonable.
3. I can see why it appears he throws BP in games. I only watched part of last night’s game. And it seemed every time I flipped to it, someone was hitting a shot off him. Example: Stanton’s homerun.
4. If the Pirates dramatically upgrade the defense, offering Duke arbitration is probably the right thing. If not, the Pirates should probably let him go.
5. If NH says the money can be spent better elsewhere, I’m fine with it. I saw what he did with the Capps money.
The subject has been posted to death...
with very interesting arguments/points on both sides (except Jake the Snake’s point which was just ridiculous). And I don’t disagree with anything in your five points. Well said.
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