What if we did this?

by JRoth95 on Oct 25, 2010 6:38 PM EDT

Fangraphs notes that Bill Hall is most likely going to become a free agent this winter. What if we put him at 3B, moved Pedro to 1B, and left Walker to get better at 2B?

No one loves the FA upgrade options at RF or 1B, and Orlando Hudson seems to be the only decent upgrade at 2B, and he might be pricey. Furthermore, there's a better than even chance that Rendon gets drafted and becomes our 3B by mid-2013, which makes you wonder if it's worth jerking Walker around the infield in order to win a couple more games in 2011 and 2012.

Hall is a career 3.9 UZR/150 at 3B; his career wOBA of .322 is middle of the pack for the hot corner. He is about to turn 31, so he could turn into a pumpkin, but the odds are probably for more of a modest decline. Hudson's got a better career wOBA (and better over the past 2-3 years), but he's about to be 33 - I don't think you can fairly project a big decline for one but not the other. Hudson's career UZR/150 is actually just 2.2 - he's been extremely variable - so, depending what you think Walker can accomplish with a full offseason/ST at 2B vs. moving back to 3B, it's not clear that there's a big defensive tradeoff either way.

I don't have a strong opinion, but it's an interesting idea to ponder. Do you want Hall or Hudson, and what would you pay for either?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Hall’s career #s are inflated by his 2005-06 seasons, which he’s shown no sign of repeating. He turned into a pumpkin in 2007. His yearly OPS+ from 2007-2010:

89
81
58
103

Looks like we’d be banking on him repeating a 2010 season that was pretty fluky. If we can’t find somebody with real upside, I think we can do better short-term, and perhaps find some viable long-term role players, by platooning guys in the system now and letting Pedro stay at third until a better solution arrives.

by WTM on Oct 25, 2010 7:04 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

wRC+ likes him a lot more

92
80
57
111

That spread is somewhat less ugly than his OPS+.

He’s been an acceptable* 3B bat for 5 of his 8 full MLB seasons; given his age, the best you could expect is a 50/50 shot of him being even acceptable (and a 25% chance of him being awful – 2 seasons under 70). So I’m inclined to say that you’re right, especially if he’s going to be pricey.

That said, I’d keep an eye on him, and if he’s available come February, he might be a decent signing.

I’m calling an wRC+ over 90 “acceptable” for a guy with a (slightly) plus glove at 3B; contrary to stereotype, 3B is not a big bat position, and a wRC+ of 100 is a median 3B

by JRoth95 on Oct 26, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

My baseline roster right

now has Pearce/Jones at first and Bowker/Milledge in right. The former should be league average to above average (assuming Pearce comes back from injury); the latter from below league average to putrid.

With Hall, first base gets solved, but right stays the same and now third will be at best average, to well below average.

I’d just stick with the (cheap, mostly youngish) guys we have right now rather than spend money that doesn’t look like it will have a significant upgrade (either in the short term or long term).

by Bwillits on Oct 26, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Uggh. That was clear as mud.

I meant to say that Pedro goes to first—solved. Jones and Milledge in right—average at best, but probably below average. And third base—average at best, but probably below average. Though I am admittedly not really factoring in defensive upgrades (if any). b

by Bwillits on Oct 26, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Honestly

I’d rather give LaRoche another chance than pay then money its going to take to get Hall.

by Kosstic518 on Oct 25, 2010 7:52 PM EDT reply actions

I thought that

But the utter disappearance of his bat – can’t hit in BP, can’t hit in Venezuela – has convinced me that it’s a bad idea. I think he may be a legit .200 hitter at this point.

by JRoth95 on Oct 26, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions

A guy can have value below .200 BA

I’ll use Carlos Pena as an example. He hit .196 this year, but still ended up with an OPS+ of 102. Of course having an OBP almost 130 points higher than your BA helps that immensely…

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.

by glass0941 on Oct 26, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

but would Pena's .196 have played well in Pittsburgh this year?

TB has the starting pitching, Pirates do not. Pena’s 196 would look worse than Aki’s or Nate’s 2010 because his bat is supposed to produce more.

by white angus on Oct 26, 2010 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Until Huntington says otherwise, I don’t see any scenario in which Pedro’s not playing 3rd and Walker’s not playing 2nd. Plus, I can’t see this team adding a 31-year-old guy with chronically low OBPs — unless he can play a steady SS.

by bolton on Oct 25, 2010 11:27 PM EDT reply actions

Hudson isn't the only decent upgrade available at 2B.

Mark Ellis would also be a solid choice.

by Vlad on Oct 26, 2010 10:22 AM EDT reply actions

I got the impression he was going to re-sign

But maybe I’m remembering wrong.

by JRoth95 on Oct 26, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions

It's unclear.

They have an option on him. Preliminary indications are that they’re going to decline it, for financial reasons. It’s certainly possible, though, that he might want to come back at a reduced salary.

by Vlad on Oct 26, 2010 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions

does walker's bat give us more wins than ellis' glove?

by white angus on Oct 26, 2010 11:57 AM EDT reply actions

im assuming

if we got ellis, walker would still play at 3B, so its not an either/or proposition

by titanlord91 on Oct 26, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

which is never going to happen because Walker will stay at 2B

by white angus on Oct 26, 2010 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, that's the $5M question.

Ellis may or may not be the best defensive 2B in baseball, but he’s definitely one of the three or four guys who belong in the discussion. He’s probably 20+ runs better with the glove than what Walker gave us at the position last year.

The answer to your question kind of depends on what kind of working assumptions you use for several smaller questions. Ellis is kind of fragile – how many games will he be good for next year? What’s Walker’s true level of offensive ability? How much defensive improvement can Walker be expected to make with another year’s experience at 2B? Etc.

by Vlad on Oct 26, 2010 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Gotta give the edge to Ellis

Unless Walker improves to league-average with the glove and (roughly) maintains his 2010 bat, it looks like Ellis’ ~15 run lead with the glove* and ~10 run deficit with the bat win out.

Of course, Walker is 8 years younger, so he’s clearly more desirable from that perspective, but in an infield realignment, Ellis would be a nice upgrade overall and a huge upgrade defensively.

Frustrating that we’ll spend all offseason talking about this, and it’s never gonna happen.

that’s assuming modest improvement from Walker, which I think is the only fair assumption, given his absolute lack of experience at 2B before last season

by JRoth95 on Oct 27, 2010 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Well

If NWs defense improves which i feel it most certainly will with more seasoning at 2B. And if his walk rate improves, which i also feel it will with more at bats and seeing major league pitching, then NW is most valuable to us at 2B.

Pirates Prospects had a good recap imo.
http://www.piratesprospects.com/2010/10/2010-position-recap-second-base.html

by C Shint on Oct 26, 2010 4:24 PM EDT reply actions

Another viable idea is to sign Tony Gwynn Jr. for the outfield b/c of his defensive acumen, then go with a flyball rotation: McDonald, Ohlendorf, Lincoln along with Kevin Millwood or similar FA, and Karstens or Daniel McCutchen.

Rudy Owens throughout his career has gotten a lot of flies, so he could fit in June or later. Bryan Morris will get enough Ks to make up for his ground-ball tendency, unlike Duke/Maholm.

Speaking of which, Maholm would move to long relief and be the emergency/6th starter. Daniel McCutchen would be the 7th starter.

by Adam Reynolds on Oct 26, 2010 9:37 PM EDT reply actions

instead of signing Gwynn, just use Presley. we already have him.

by white angus on Oct 26, 2010 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Is Presley good enough that he could put up 2 or 3 WAR? Probably more of a slightly above-average defender than a game-changer though. I could see using Gorkyz Hernandez if he hits better in Triple-A, though.

by Adam Reynolds on Oct 26, 2010 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions

PNC Park...

…will work to minimize the defensive value of a RF, since there just isn’t much ground to cover there. Your strategy might be a better fit for a team in a different park.

by Vlad on Oct 26, 2010 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions

True

Ideally, you would want the pirates to hide their worst defender in RF. Luckily, that is one of the easiest places to find big bat/bad glove players.

by titanlord91 on Oct 26, 2010 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions

IMO, the only place you can hidea glove is 1B. This year, we tried to hide decent bats in RF and it looked like a dismal failure from here.

by Adam Reynolds on Oct 26, 2010 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I’d say their bats were bigger failures. We could live with Manny Ramirez in his prime.

by Mr. E on Oct 27, 2010 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed. Though the defender is cheaper than the bat, and would probably add more WAR or win shares.

by Adam Reynolds on Oct 27, 2010 2:19 AM EDT up reply actions

After the Doumit experience at 1B...

we know you can’t hide a bad glove there either.

by Thunder on Oct 27, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions

I think you could potentially hide Doumit at either...

…if you gave him some advance notice and let him work at the position to get up to speed, rather than just randomly deciding to throw him out there one day.

by Vlad on Oct 27, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Especially

if you don’t put him in RF in other ballparks (maybe Yankee Stadium). He’s got a sound enough arm and glove, but his range is dismal, and his instincts worse. He can overcome some of that with practice, but I’d never want to see him patrolling Petco.

by JRoth95 on Oct 27, 2010 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I’d move Tabata to RF. Trying to hide a guy in RF is nice in theory, but Ryan Doumit still managed to do major damage there, not to mention Delwyn Young, Garrett Jones, and I forget who else we’ve played there, who’s been hideous. Plus, we play half our games away. I don’t care how the WAR is made if we can get some on he cheap.

by Adam Reynolds on Oct 26, 2010 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Doumit is the only one of those guys...

…who put up offensive numbers that were anywhere close to those of a starting OF.

It would be a lot easier to hide a bat in RF if we had an actual bat to hide there, y’know?

by Vlad on Oct 27, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Jones put up around a .720 OPS and would be, say, -10 in the outfield if he played there more. Doumit could hit .750 and be -20 in the outfield over the full season. Doumit’s turning 30, and I don’t seen much athleticism there to begin with.

The Brad Hawpe comparison fits Doumit. Around a .730-.750 OPS (if he played in PNC instead of Coors) with -20 defense. Hawpe was useful when he hit in the .900 range, but now, probably not.

by Adam Reynolds on Oct 27, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

I think you undersell Doumit...

…when you consign him to a -20 in the outfield. Yes, he looked rough out there this year. It was also the his first time at the position in three years (save one game in 2009). Some amount of rust should have been expected.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that his defensive numbers had been much better in his last extended look at the position in 2007, when he was given notice that he’d be playing in the outfield and the opportunity to take extra reps and get ready, rather than just being randomly thrown out there one day.

by Vlad on Oct 27, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions

It's OK, he's underselling Jones, too

Jones is maybe a -5 in RF, both on the merits and on Varsho’s professional opinion (not to mention what a number of us here said when he was playing there a lot last spring). He very specifically is strong where Doumit’s weakest: overall speed and specifically the approach on balls hit short.

Hardly matters if he doesn’t hit, of course.

by JRoth95 on Oct 27, 2010 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree that he can shake off some rust. That’s why he won’t be at -40 like he was this season. But it’s hard to ignore that he’d be a 30 yo catcher, though.

He looked better in the field when he was 4 years younger, but I don’t think that’s too relevant. He looked better at the plate then, as well.

Unfortunately, he’s a lot different player now than in ‘07 and even after 08 when we gave him the extension. Not as much pop as then, less defense behind the plate, well below-average speed, but he’d still be a good outfielder even when the other aspects declined? I don’t buy it, but we’ll probably find out.

by Adam Reynolds on Oct 27, 2010 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions

But it’s hard to ignore that he’d be a 30 yo catcher, though.

Worked out OK for B.J. Surhoff. Surhoff was primarily a catcher through age 27, and didn’t play a majority of a season’s games in the OF until he was 30.

He looked better in the field when he was 4 years younger, but I don’t think that’s too relevant. He looked better at the plate then, as well.

Not all that much better. 110 OPS+ in 2007, 99 this year. That’s not nothing, but the downward trend in the league’s offensive environment makes the gap look bigger than it really is. It’s also smaller than the gap between his 2007 and his 2008.

by Vlad on Oct 28, 2010 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Not that any of that is really related to the point I was making, of course.

If you want to “hide a guy” somewhere, you need a guy who can hit well enough to be worth hiding. If we had a guy who could consistently put up an OPS in the mid-800s, hiding him in RF would be a much more viable option than Doumit or Jones or whomever.

When a guy is as far below RF’s offensive requirements as Jones was this year, any additional deficiencies in fielding at that position are just gilding the lily.

by Vlad on Oct 27, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions

50 games isn’t much, but Pearce has a career -.9 UZR/150 in the OF. If he starts the season in a platoon with Jones at 1B but forces his way into the lineup, an .820 ish OPS in RF works with basically even defensive impact.

by Mr. E on Oct 27, 2010 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Bear in mind

His BABIP was ~25 points below where it should have been; his triple slash should have looked like .267/.323/.443. Which still isn’t good enough (median OPS for qualifying RFs being .800), but an extra 46 points of OPS never hurt anybody.

For the record, that would put him 10 points ahead of Ichiro and 20 behind Hunter Pence, both better fielders, to say the least (that’s the biggest gap in the whole list, until you get up to Werth and Joey Bats).

by JRoth95 on Oct 27, 2010 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions