More SP Analysis

by zogger on Oct 4, 2010 7:49 PM EDT

As a follow up to my previous posts on HQS/QS/../BlowUp numbers for SP, I compiled stats for all NL SP with ~26 or more starts (see the list below the Jump). The average % HQS/QS/Avg was 74%. The only Pirate SP who was at least average was Ohlendorf at 74%. All other Buc SP were lower than this.

Mahlom, McDonald, Karstens, and Burris had 66%, 64%, 63%, 62% respectively.

Duke had 52% which was the lowest for all NL SP with 26 or more starts.

Here is the Buc SP Figures:

Pitcher	Starts	HQS	QS	Avg	Poor	BlowUp	%HQS/QS/Avg
Eveland	1	0%	0%	100%	0%	0%	100%
Ohlendorf	19	32%	26%	16%	0%	26%	74%
Maholm	32	16%	31%	19%	13%	22%	66%
McDonald, J	11	45%	9%	9%	9%	27%	64%
Karstens	19	11%	42%	11%	0%	37%	63%
Burres	13	38%	8%	15%	0%	38%	62%
Morton	17	0%	29%	24%	6%	41%	53%
Duke	29	17%	28%	7%	3%	45%	52%
Lincoln	9	11%	0%	33%	0%	56%	44%
McCutchen, D	9	22%	11%	11%	22%	33%	44%

Totals

159

19%

25%

16%

35%

60%

OK, so what do I see in this data? The SP was no where near the league average in giving the Bucs even a chance to win the game. Only 60% of the time did a SP at least give the team an average start or better. Only 1 SP (Ohlendorf) was at least league average. Duke was espeically bad, roughly half the time (48%) he had a Poor or BlowUp start.

My conclusion? We need to get some SP who at least give us a chance 75% to win the game. Right now, we have only 1 SP who does this. The rest are awful!

Look at some of the names above Maholm, do they pop out to you as great SP? Well they all give their teams a much better chance of winning games than the guys we have!

So we don't need All Star SP, just league average to get better.

Pitcher	Starts	HQS	QS	Avg	Poor	BlowUp	%HQS/QS/Avg
Josh Johnson	28	54%	25%	11%	0%	11%	89%
Tim Hudson	34	41%	32%	15%	3%	9%	88%
Jaime Garcia	28	46%	29%	11%	0%	14%	86%
Matt Cain	33	30%	36%	18%	0%	15%	85%
Adam Wainwright	33	48%	27%	9%	6%	9%	85%
Roy Halladay	33	48%	24%	12%	6%	9%	85%
Brett Myers	33	36%	33%	15%	6%	9%	85%
Roy Oswalt	32	41%	34%	9%	3%	13%	84%
Mat Latos	31	45%	32%	6%	6%	10%	84%
Johan Santana	29	55%	7%	21%	3%	14%	83%
Clayton Kershaw	32	38%	41%	3%	3%	16%	81%
R.A. Dickey	26	42%	27%	12%	8%	12%	81%
Hiroki Kuroda	31	32%	23%	26%	0%	19%	81%
Chris Carpenter	35	34%	29%	17%	9%	11%	80%
Ubaldo Jimenez	33	48%	21%	9%	6%	15%	79%
Cole Hamels	33	42%	27%	9%	6%	15%	79%
Wandy Rodriguez	32	47%	16%	16%	3%	19%	78%
Ian Kennedy	32	28%	22%	28%	3%	19%	78%
Chad Billingsley	31	39%	19%	19%	3%	19%	77%
Ted Lilly	30	43%	23%	10%	3%	20%	77%
Tommy Hanson	34	44%	26%	6%	9%	15%	76%
Jon Garland	33	33%	18%	24%	6%	18%	76%
Clayton Richard	33	39%	18%	18%	3%	21%	76%
Cliff Lee	28	39%	25%	11%	4%	21%	75%
Dave Bush	31	26%	32%	16%	3%	23%	74%
Ohlendorf	19	32%	26%	16%	0%	26%	74%
Ryan Dempster	34	26%	38%	9%	9%	18%	74%
Jonathan Sanchez	33	48%	12%	12%	9%	18%	73%
Tim Lincecum	33	33%	30%	9%	6%	21%	73%
Livan Hernandez	33	39%	21%	12%	3%	24%	73%
Bronson Arroyo	33	30%	33%	9%	3%	24%	73%
Derek Lowe	33	33%	24%	15%	6%	21%	73%
Johnny Cueto	31	45%	13%	13%	3%	26%	71%
Barry Zito	33	24%	27%	18%	0%	30%	70%
Anibal Sanchez	32	34%	22%	13%	9%	22%	69%
Yovani Gallardo	31	42%	16%	10%	13%	19%	68%
Randy Wolf	34	29%	26%	12%	6%	26%	68%
Chris Volstad	33	21%	24%	21%	6%	27%	67%
Mike Pelfrey	33	36%	27%	3%	12%	21%	67%
Randy Wells	32	34%	25%	6%	6%	25%	66%
Paul Maholm	32	16%	31%	19%	13%	22%	66%
Jason Hammel	31	13%	29%	23%	10%	26%	65%
Chris Narveson	28	21%	18%	25%	7%	29%	64%
Rodrigo Lopez	33	12%	33%	18%	6%	30%	64%
McDonald, J	11	45%	9%	9%	9%	27%	64%
Jonathon Niese	30	47%	10%	7%	7%	30%	63%
Joe Blanton	28	14%	36%	11%	18%	21%	61%
Kyle Kendrick	33	33%	18%	3%	6%	39%	55%
Z Duke	29	17%	28%	7%	3%	45%	52%

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Comments

I appreciate this

I think the main reason McDonald is so low is small sample size compounded by the Pirates’ poor defense. If he had pitched a full year like he pitched in his limited number of starts, I’m sure he’d have a much better percentage. Maybe around like 80%.

Also I’d love to see a comparison using Bill James’ Game Scores with perhaps the same pitchers. Hell I might do it myself if no one else wants to.

by Schide on Oct 5, 2010 12:42 AM EDT reply actions

I do like these posts

Even if I don’t pay enough attention to them…I’ve always thought that a good pitching stat could involve the “type” of start the pitcher gives, and what percentage of the time they are excellent, good, terrible, etc….

You’ve gone out and done it- well done!

by pittiful89 on Oct 5, 2010 2:38 AM EDT reply actions

Good post zogger

I feel Olly and Mcdonald are two guys that should post decent numbers. I would have liked to see them give Owens and Wilson 1 sept start just to see how they stood up vs pro’s. Both were near the top of their game and I think it would have been nice to see how their stuff translated up here. I know their innings were up ect..but getting a feel if they are close to ready ect seemed a prudent move (for planning FA;s ect…into off season)

Another guy who just torched the competition as a starter was RESOP. He got lefties and righties out equally, he was very consistent, very evident he has the “stuff” to get guys out, here are his splits:

vs Left 2.17 37.1 28 10 9 2 22 38 0.79 .204
vs Right 2.01 44.2 25 10 10 2 10 53 1.78 .170

I still feel you cant right off Lincoln too. I’m not as high on Morton, his demise is he gets killed out of the stretch, every scoring inning vs him is multiples of runs, not just 1.

An open competition very well could land you 5 servicable starters..the key is “OPEN” competition!!!

The bucs haven’t had that in years and IMO, it’s really hurt this team.

by Dan Jenkins on Oct 5, 2010 7:57 AM EDT reply actions