Pirates Should Be Creative, Fix Their Defense
by Charlie Wilmoth on Nov 2, 2010 10:22 PM EDT
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Jenifer Langosch has a preview of the Pirates' offseason here, and honestly, it looks pretty bleak. It says the Pirates will focus on starting pitching as their primary area of concern, which really just seems like pouring water into acid. Sure, the Pirates could use better starting pitchers, but good luck to them in getting good results out of whoever they end up grabbing. The more pressing problem is that the defense is horrible, and they certainly aren't going to spend on a top-tier pitcher, so if they do grab someone like Kevin Millwood or Jake Westbrook, they run the risk of having that player put up the worst ERA of his career.
Someone like Westbrook is probably the best possible pitcher on the free agent market they could reasonably end up getting, and even he depends very heavily on his infield defense and would likely be a giant flop with the Bucs if the Pirates don't upgrade there. And man - if Neal Huntington hands out an eight-figure contract to someone like Westbrook and then Westbrook doesn't succeed, the cries for Huntington's head will get even louder.
Langosch mentions the possibility of the Pirates getting "creative," by which she mostly just means adding someone in the Rule 5 draft and signing a bunch of minor league free agents, which really isn't creative and which the Pirates do every year. More interesting is the possibility that the Pirates could seek to add talent and salary through trades rather than through free agency, much they way they did with Chris Snyder a few months ago. Or they could scan the ranks of non-tenders and try to add younger talent that way (for example, Willy Aybar has shown the abilities to hit and play defense at various points in the past, and is still fairly young).
What would really be creative, though, would be breaking with the usual way of thinking about the offseason. Langosch focuses on starting pitching and a power bat for the corners, which is pretty much the menu for every Pirates offseason ever, dating back to, like, the first Bush administration. Starting pitching and first base / right field are not the primary problems with this team.
In the rotation, James McDonald, Paul Maholm and Ross Ohlendorf have all earned spots next season, Zach Duke is perfectly functional on a good defensive team (and still very much available), and Charlie Morton and Brad Lincoln still have talent. The Pirates should be able to hold down the fort with those guys, plus a couple of cheap minor league free agents, until Rudy Owens, Bryan Morris and/or Jeff Locke start forcing their way into the picture. And at the corners, a good management team should be able to get at least a functional mix-and-match going at first base and right field between whatever combination of Garrett Jones, Lastings Milledge, John Bowker, Steve Pearce and Jeff Clement is still around. And that's if they don't move Pedro Alvarez to first base.
And speaking of which, you know what would be really creative? Moving Alvarez to first base. It's going to happen eventually anyway, Neil Walker is a much better third baseman than second baseman, and as the example of the 2008 Rays shows, really good things can happen when you take a bunch of talented guys who are playing out of position and move them to positions where they're capable. The Rays moved B.J. Upton from second base to a position he could actually play (centerfield), replaced lead-gloved shortstop Brendan Harris with Jason Bartlett, and gave Evan Longoria the starting job at third base, and changed almost overnight from one of the worst defensive teams in baseball to one of the best. Glancing over the Rays' 2007 statistics, it would be easy to jump to the conclusion that their pitching was their primary problem. Easy, but wrong. The 2010 Pirates were the same way.
So, here's my wacky (read: creative) Plan A to improve the Pirates in 2011. Call the Twins, who need to shed payroll and are apparently considering non-tendering J.J. Hardy, and see what it would take to get Hardy in a trade. If he can be had without paying a huge price in prospects, trade for him and take him to arbitration. Hardy doesn't necessarily have a great defensive reputation because he's slow for a middle infielder, but he consistently ranks as a very strong defensive shortstop statistically, probably because his positioning is very good. He also isn't a nonzero offensively - he only hit six homers in 2010, but part of that was Target Field, and he already has two seasons with 24 or more homers a the age of 28.
This move would allow the Pirates to put Ronny Cedeno at second, Walker at third and Alvarez at first. Acquiring Hardy would thus seriously improve the defense at three middle infield positions (shortstop, second and third), eliminate the supposed need for a first baseman or corner outfielder, and potentially allow the Pirates to pick up a groundballing starter like Westbrook (if they feel like spending some money this offseason) without nearly the risk that it will blow up in their faces. The Bucs could then add another arm or two in the bullpen and a bunch of minor league free agent pitchers at minimal cost.
If the Pirates are willing to see themselves as a team that is deficient in defense rather than a team that is primarily deficient in pitching, then if they grab the right player (and he will be an infielder, not a starting pitcher or a corner player), he can have a domino effect on the rest of the roster that can allow them to upgrade lots of positions without a ton of personnel changes or a lot of money spent.
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Creative, cheap, and sensible idea, Charlie.
I appreciate the post. While they’re at it, try and nab an outfielder in free agency who can actually play right field. No Doumit or Jones, please. Johnny Damon was a plus defender in left field for the Tigers last year. Hell, if you want to stay on the cheap, take a flier on Bill Hall. He could play 80 games in right field, platoon with Jones (he has a .341 wOBA vs. lefties for his career), and give at least passable defense in a pinch at several positions.
Conceivably, if you really wanted improvement defensively without sacrificing offense, you could sign Mark Ellis. He’d be good for at least 2.5 WAR and be a good deal better than Cedeno all across the board.
LF Tabata
CF McCutchen
3B Walker
1B Alvarez
RF Jones
2B Ellis
SS Hardy
C Snyder
That’s reasonable to me and better than having Cedeno at second.
Though, I'm not sure if Oakland's exercising Ellis's option or not.
by Suffering Buc on Nov 2, 2010 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions
much better than Cedeno at 2B or SS
I think Oak is keeping Ellis though.
Our payroll is low enough that adding those two if available makes alot of sense…one problem that is being swept under the rug IMO is that darn idiot shift…it gave up cheap doubles and extra bases almost daily…they aren;t errors but they cost our starters alot of extra bases, I personally feel they inflated our team ERA atleast a half a run per game…NO I DONT HAVE STAT PROOF, but I go to most games…flyballs that should be outs, singles to left that allow guys to get to 3rd add up…plus I feel it’s also in the back of our pitchers mind, like they cant go inside too often as left field is almost barren,,,
PGH plays dumb baseball…period…we have more talent than our record dictates…bad mgmt can supercede gains in talent.
I'm sure it did...
what I don’t know is how many runs it saved. Without being able to track that data effectively we’ll never know if it was a net gain or loss. To add to the problem they abandon the shift in the middle of the season at Russell’s request so we won’t even have a full season’s worth of data. Since they treated last season like a throw away season, management should have stuck to their guns and batted the pitcher 8th all season and continued the shifts all season in order to get their answer. I really don’t want them fooling around with this stuff in 2011 if they are not sure they are helping the team.
in defense of abandoning the shift
given that we know little about it, its perfectly possible its a stat that stabilizes in half a season, and a full season’s data isnt necessary. Granted, its unlikely esp for fielding where things tend to be higher variance, but still possible. We dont really know that it was abandoned at Russell’s request, do we?
I thought I remember reading NH ok'd getting rid of it...
after Russell requested it. I could be mistaken though. Anway, with the limited # of balls in play to the OF I would think you would need a larger sample size than half a season. Heck, all of the pundits say you need three years of UZR data for it to be a useful inidicator of a player’s ability; I would think the sample size for the shift would be in the same area. That said, I don’t think a team could afford to experiment any longer than a year.
Why?
This wasn’t a “random” experiment. They did it because they had empircal evidence that suggested it was a good idea. I don’t get all the people who think this was just some crazy idea that someone in the organization thought of while drunk at the bar.
The Hammer Speaks
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
Wasn't saying it was a crazy idea...
most great ideas come from analyzing data. Than you take that data and form a thesis. Then you take that thesis and design an experiment. Then you conduct the experiment recording the results and keeping track of any variables you may not have accounted for. Once you analyze the results of the experiement, you repeat it. After following this porcedure a few times you come up with your concluision. So, given that this year and last were the first times I’d ever seen the shift used in Pittsburgh, I’d say that was the front office conducting the experiment. I think if they were sold enough on the data alone they would not have abandon using it.
Defense is so undervalued in baseball, it’s crazy (save for GG award winners. Like Nate McLouth).
Hardy didn’t hit very well, so he could definitely be had for relatively little.
Thank you Ned Colletti.
by ryebr3ad on Nov 2, 2010 10:38 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I agree
But I still have a hard time swallowing the fact that moving Walker to third is essentially saying he will never play second base. I know that we don’t really have any good alternatives at third in the system (we haven’t drafted Rendon yet), so Neil could possibly hold down that position for several seasons. But he hasn’t even played a full season at second yet! He could get better. Statistically, Cutch has played a sub-par center field, but we’re not calling for him to be moved to a corner. He is extremely athletic, we all think he can improve. Walker is athletic, why do we not buy his potential for improvement?
All that said, the defense needs fixed, and I like your plan to make changes that might actually work. I just don’t like punting on Walker at 2B after 110 games.
It's a good day to be a Pirate
Walker is athletic, why do we not buy his potential for improvement?
Walker is athletic, but to my eyes, it’s the wrong kind of athleticism for the position. I mean, LaMarr Woodley is a pretty good athlete, but that doesn’t mean he’d make a good option quarterback, y’know?
To be a good defensive 3B, the most important attributes for a player are hands and lateral mobility. Walker has the former, but not the latter (or at least, not enough of it for 2B), and his arm is kind of wasted at second in the bargain.
Tell me if you think I’m off, but a few of us noticed last year that Walker seems to move really well to his left to nab balls on the forehand, but he was pretty terrible moving to his right to save bleeders up the middle. He wouldn’t guard the line well at third, but his arm’s solid and he can help keep balls out of the hole at short, I guess.
by Suffering Buc on Nov 2, 2010 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't think that he was particularly strong at going to his left...
…but he definitely seemed to have problems on balls up the middle, at least to my eyes.
That’s an issue that can be addressed somewhat by positioning at 3B. If he cheats toward the line in his stance, he won’t need to do as much to cover it, and he should still have at least decent range to his left.
Perhaps that problem was caused by him being used to playing third base, where the line covers you somewhat to your right.
Also, the angles are different at 2B and 3B. I think it is possible that Walker could improve at 2B with added time. He might not ever have great range but it could improve to the point where it wouldn’t be a problem anymore. Also, he could master the other parts of the equation (no errors, great turning DPs) to the point where his lack of range is negated.
I believe he will get better at 2nd based on experience
Having played third myself and moving over on the diamond to second occasionally, second is a position where repition and feel make a big difference. If he is athletic enough to handle the position he WILL get better over time. I believe that he is and that he is more valuable to us at second than third
quickness is also a primo attribute for 3B
Ultimate small sample size – I saw Walker play exactly one game at 3b, in AA. However, in that game he made two diving plays on bullets hit to his right – plays that would have made Brooks Robinson proud. Okay, not everyone’s a geezer like me…would have made Evan Longoria proud.
For what it’s worth.
Which is why I didn't use the word quickness - it's ambiguous.
A play like the one you describe is a reactive play, made or not made by a player’s ability to react quickly and make a good read on a ball in play. It’s pretty much the quintessential defensive play at third base. More a measure of nerves than range.
The kind of quickness we’re talking about in relation to a 2B’s skill set is more the ability to get up to top speed quickly from a standstill, in order to cover the maximum possible amount of horizontal ground and cut off ground balls.
You're correct, reaction is a better term
Though obviously, it should be quick reaction. And if by “measure of nerves” you meant having the the balls (not to mention the instinct and athleticism) to make those dives, let me just say Amen.
Also, just to be clear, my post was in support of NW moving back to 3B rather than staying at 2B where, from everything I read, his defensive ceiling is likely to be “serviceable.”
I don't think it's fair to put his ceiling at "serviceable"
I don’t have any links to back this up, but I’m guessing when he was converted from C to 3B, there were probably many people who thought his ceiling there would be “serviceable” as well, and he turned to be a pretty good defender there.
Two strong defenders...
one in the middle IF…and one in the OF…would probably do it. Charlie’s scenario could work…Pedro to 1B…Walker back to 3B…and a better combination at 2B/SS. Hardy should have been a target last season…I’m sure that we could have found the Brewers a more useful piece than Carlos Gomez. However…I’m not one of those that am convinced that Ronny Cedeno should be a piece of the puzzle.
Walker may be OK at 2B, but it will probably take most or all of 2011 to find out. We’ve already been told he’s capable of handling 3B defensively. The reason he was moved from there was Pedro/LaRoche…not because of a lack of ability defensively.
In the outfield, it doesn’t matter where the defensive improvement comes from. Don’t be LOCKED into Cutch in CF. Keep the options open depending on what OF may become available in one form or another. If the defense gets stronger with someone other than Cutch in CF…move him to LF or RF.
If you were the Brewers...
would you have bit on Capps or Doumit??
As opposed to Carlos Gomez, one of the worst hitters in baseball? Yes, I’d have bit.
by Suffering Buc on Nov 3, 2010 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh, I dunno.
You have to put yourself into the Brewers’ head space at the time of the trade. Gomez is a pretty bad hitter, but he’s one of the best defensive CFs in baseball, he was young and athletic enough that you could at least imagine him learning to hit a little more, and the Brewers had absolutely nothing at the position (with Lorenzo Cain having injured himself and then not hit at all after his return). Meanwhile, Capps looked pretty shaky, and while Doumit had some merit as a player, he really wasn’t a good fit for their organizational needs – they had Lucroy and the unfortunate Angel Salome nearly ready for the majors, plus they were projecting Lawrie as a catcher at that point as well.
Just curious
Did you remember all that, or did you have to go back and check some of it? Because that’s pretty good recall of another org’s depth chart from a couple years back.
Remembered it.
But only because I’d looked it up to answer a similar question about six months ago. So a little of both, maybe?
I wish I knew what was going on with Salome. He was a very interesting prospect before he went crazy and requested a move to the outfield.
Omg quit Charlie
Stop tootin on Zach Duke’s horn man. He had one good year. His defense must have sucked the rest….. He’s pathetic. Quit thinking its just the defense. I hate when people say that…. Give me a break. He’s horrible. Not even the best defense could help him. Give up.,
by Jake The Snake1 on Nov 2, 2010 11:08 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
His defense must have sucked the rest.
You’re catching on. The year that Duke posted his lowest single-season ERA (i.e. 2009) is also the one year this decade that advanced defensive metrics have us with an above-average team defense. In literally every other year, we were at or near the bottom of the heap.
Funny how that works out, isn’t it?
not funny, just kinda sad
with that thinking, any one of us could get on the mound and be an average pitcher as long as we have wilson, freddy and adam behind us.
No, you couldn't.
You (or I, or just about any other poster here) would have trouble with walks, strikeouts, line drives, and fly balls – the things that defense can’t control.
but with a better defense Duke becomes a better pitcher?
yet he has problems with lack of K’s, line drives, etc… I know you are a Duke fan, but the same defense was behind mcdonald, karstens, ohly; Duke was and IS hittable. and he gets hit hard. 5 plus years of it.
Duke doesn't "become a better pitcher", as such.
He just delivers better results with a better defense in front of him, since more of his balls in play turn into outs, rather than hits. The pitches he throws are still the same, and so are his K, BB, LD, and FB rates.
the same defense was behind mcdonald, karstens, ohly
The same defense also hurt McDonald and Karstens. Karstens’s ERA was half a run higher than his xFIP. McDonald’s ERA was lower than his xFIP, but only because the negative effects of our defense were more than drowned out by his extreme good luck on HR/FB (as you can see by looking at his FIP).
yet he has problems with lack of K’s, line drives, etc…
Duke’s line drive rate is higher than average, but not high enough to explain his ERA. And while his K rate is below league average, it was much better in 2010 than both his career average and his 2009 performance.
All pitchers have strengths and weaknesses on their profile. Most of Duke’s critics do not properly account for the value of his better-than-average walk rate, in particular.
Is a smashed 2 hopper for a single considerred a GB%
just out of curiousity..I haven’t really seen a pitcher get consistently hit hard day in day out (except on that day where the ump gives an extra half foot on the outside corner) yet keep his starters job.
Just in 2009, his FB was hitting 89-90 but more importantly had some tail/sink to it…plus his curve was 72-74 and had a decent bite at the end….this past year his FB was around 86-87 but what hurt more was it didn’t have that same tailing sinking action…and his curve looked like an ephis pitch…high 60’s with a gravity break…not a biting pitch at all…did defense hurt a little? sure but anyone who couldn’t see the deterioration in his pitches and just feels it was bad luck and bad fielding that caused his HOF batting average against numbers had his head in the sand.
As far as his low BB numbers, an ERA near 6 along with the highest BA against tells the bottom line story IMO…he was sickening to watch in person.
If guys were squaring him up so much, wouldn’t you expect a drastic rise in his Line Drive %? Or maybe, when guys square up on a Duke pitch they think “I really want to smash a grounder”
by Wizard of Woz on Nov 3, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
That's why I asked the question...a smashed/ hard hit grounder is alot different that bouncers
I’m a season tix holder and see most games…Duke was hit hard…batters usually go up there w/ the mind set of “HITTING IT HARD”…not smashing a grounder…Duke got alot of weaker grounders because his ball sunk/tailed alot…this past year it tailed much less…and most batters got alot more of the bat on it…
My question is if a smashed one-two hopper is still a GB?
It's the judgment of the guy doing the scoring.
But generally, yes, that would be scored as a ground ball. Though as Wiz was saying above, there’s no real explanation as to why a guy (like Duke) would give up more hard-hit grounders without a corresponding increase in line drives, given that line drives are the inexorable consequence of meatballs.
To my eyes, Duke actually gave up more hits than usual on weak contact last year. Neither Pedro nor Jones is particularly effective at coming in on balls, and I saw at least three different games where Walker either was late covering 1B on a ball in the 1B/P no man’s land or forgot to cover the bag at all.
At least...
the issues with Walker not covering first should go away with actually learning how to play 2B next spring…instead of learning on the fly during games.
This is a good point
Regardless of how he appeared to be wrt lateral movement, his UZR was not solely (or even primarily) a product of that factor alone – he was terrible at DP turns in May and June, and he continued to make basic positioning errors all year. Those should more or less vanish by next summer. So even if you fully buy his -20 this year, you still have to project him closer to -10 even without any improvement in his range. Not that -10 is great, but the point is that the first significant chunk of improvement comes “free” – it’s not contingent on him developing an unused skill, but on simply learning his position in a systematic way.
That may be true ...
but the Pirates should be looking at a guy with a +10 and not a -10.
I think that’s especially true with the current pitching staff.
It takes some time to fine-tune a new position
I personally feel Walker came a long ways thru the year…all things considered. He improved and I feel an offseason w/ Maz, proper tuning along w/ a workout regime on lateral quickness will do wonders…how much? I dont know.
I played CF in college and later played semi=pro in deerfield…the manager during tryouts asked me if I ever played 2B…I played SS a couple years in little league but that was years ago…he said my arm was too weak to play OF but my bat and speed earned me a starting gig at 2B…never ever played it and my first year…well lets just say Walker looked like a Gold Glover compared to my butcher job LOL….that said, my 2nd year there was night and day…I wasn’t great but was adequate, the improvement was 100% repetition, footwork programs, and just getting comfortable.
I guarantee you Walker will be much improved year 2 there…but I cant say how much improved…I feel pretty confident he’ll do the job there though.
As others have said, Rendon should be a sure pick draft day…we have pitching depth thru out this system…but an allstar right handed power corner is a huge need in the organization…that Nutting’s allowing money to be spent in the draft have brightened the future immensely (all these top 3 picks LOL)
Don't get me wrong:
I’m not blaming Walker for struggling a bit with the glove last year. Asking a guy to learn a new position on the fly is a very tall order, and under the circumstances he did quite well.
Heh...
I was a CF in college too, for a season anyway. My coach told me I could go get the ball like a centerfielder but I threw the ball like a DH!!!
CF range and DH arm...
…usually makes you a LF at the next level. Worked out OK for Bonds.
In his youth, Adam Dunn was a shortstop. Try to wrap your head around that one, for a second.
Funny you mention Bonds...
I tried so damn hard to copy his quick release by staying after practice and just throwing the ball to the bases. I did it for nearly a month every day after practice right up until the popping in my shoulder and dead arm told me to stop. Ended up with a slight tear in the rotator cuff and my playing days were over. Oh well, I should have been a secondbasemen.
Every time I read you use McDonald...
as your example why the defense isn’t a problem for Duke I am more convinced that you are just trying to be difficult. I have explained to you on multiple occassions that Duke is a “groundball” pitcher heavily dependent on his defense, particularly his IF defense. McDonald is a FB/K pitcher who is much, much less dependent on defense. As such, it should come as no surprise to anyone that McDonald is hurt less by a bad defense than Duke is. This is a horrible comparison yet you continue to use it. I don’t get it. I assume the reason you don’t use Maholm to compare to Duke, even though they are similar pitchers, is because it doesn’t support the argument you are making.
And Ohlendorf is a FB pitcher....
and Karstens ERA was lower than both his FIP and xFIP, though not to the same extent as Duke. Now Maholm, is the most similar pitcher to Duke on his staff, had a ERA almost a full run higher than his FIP and .6 points higher than his xFIP. Duke was over a run higher than his xFIP and .7 higher than his FIP. It would appear that Maholm, being a groundball pitcher, was hurt badly by the defense behind him. Malhom’s year alone strengthen’s the case that the defense was “a” problem last year.
In fact, every starter on the team but Ohlendorf had an ERA higher than his FIP or xFIP. So, to your original statement, the defense likely hurt all of those guys but Ohlendorf last year and somer pitchers, like Duke and Maholm, were hurt worse than others.
Sometimes, yes.
But not in this specific instance.
There are lots of real-world instances where two highly-correlated items do share a causal chain. For example, most people who get shot in the head tend to die shortly thereafter. It would be silly to stand in front of a guy who just got head-shot and tell him that his impending death may be nothing more than a data artifact.
You have seen Mark Burhlie pitch right
they are the same type of pitcher. They don’t strike guys out, they get ground balls. The only difference is that one guy has good defenders and the other has guys who could but still have to reach to their ceilings. So learn a little about the rest of the MLB before you start talking out your ass.
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by WVPiratesfan on Nov 2, 2010 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
not true, buehrle is a better pitcher than duke
konerko and ramirez are not even close to be stellar defenders. beckham? still learning to play 2B. face it, buerhle is just a better pitcher than Duke.
I said they were the same type of pitcher
not that Duke was better, I realize that Buehrle is ten thousand time better than Zack Duke
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Jack Butler, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
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Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
konerko and ramirez are not even close to be stellar defenders. beckham? still learning to play 2B.
Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones (as a corner OF), Alexis Rios, and Alexei Ramirez are all above-average defenders. While Beckham may still be learning some of the nuances of 2B, he was a shortstop as recently as two years ago, and as such is already no worse than average at 2B.
Ramirez is a poor defender, but there’s a limit to how much damage you can do with the glove from the DH slot, and Ramirez didn’t play a single inning in the field with the Sox last year. Konerko is, as you noted, a bad defender (at least in terms of range), and Carlos Quentin is among the worst defensive outfielders in baseball. Still, the White Sox’s team defense was significantly better than ours last year.
Buehrle has also typically been a better pitcher than Duke, but not by as much as you might think.
every team's defense was better than the pirates last season
but Buerhle would still pitch much better than Duke if they were both on the Pirates.
and it wouldnt be close.
The Mark Buehrle of the early part of the decade was a much better pitcher than Duke. The current version, not so much. His K rate was in the high 5s or low 6s in his best seasons, but it’s been in the low 4s the last two years.
Buehrle’s raw ERA also looks better than Duke’s in part because the White Sox have had a lockdown pen for much of his career, while we’ve had a group of castoffs. Over his career, his relievers have stranded 72.2% of his inherited runners, compared to only 69.9% for Duke (including a career-low 65.5% last season). A pitcher obviously has no control over the performance of the pitchers who enter the game after him, right?
I agree to an extent...
Vlad: you are correct, a pitcher has NO control over the performance of the pitchers who enter the game after him…
but what the pitcher DOES CONTROL is what he leaves for that pitcher.
Do any stats exist as to WHAT TYPE of runners starting pitchers left for their successors? Buehrle leaving a runner on 1st with 1 out…versus Duke leaving a runner on 3rd with 1 out is VERY significant. Also significant is how much the manager PROTECTS his starting pitchers — will he pull him after a lead-off walk, or wait for the following single (and runners on first-and-third) before he brings in the reliever.
by insane_sanity on Nov 3, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, there is a stat for that.
It’s called exLI, or exiting leverage index. Fangraphs keeps it. It shows whether or not the pitcher leaves his reliever in a tough spot when he exits the game. The lower the score, the better a pitcher is leaving his reliever to start off with.
Duke’s score last year was .90. The league average was 1.07. Therefore, Duke hardly left his relievers out to dry.
exLI isn’t perfect since it accounts for blowouts both bad and good, but it has some use.
by Suffering Buc on Nov 3, 2010 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Misleading stat...
LI (leverage index): A measure of how important a particular situation is in a baseball game depending on the inning, score, outs, and number of players on base, created by Tom Tango.
If I’m reading this right…to state “Zach Duke hardly left his relievers out to dry” is NOT supported by this statistic.
So when Zach Duke was pulled in the 4th inning…down 5-0…runners on 2nd and 3rd with NO outs…that’s not a tough spot, and thus does not affect this stat much, regardless who came in to pitch next.
So I agree with you: Duke hardly left his relievers out to dry…unless making the bullpen enter in the 5th inning counts.
by insane_sanity on Nov 4, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, a bit misleading...
but one could easily look up the number of games in which Duke was knocked out early with men on base to determine if his leverage index is way off the mark. I remember Duke getting knocked out early a couple of times but I’d be surprised if it was more than 3 or 4. I could be wrong though, my memory is pretty bad.
FYI...
Slick1: FYI, Duke left 3 games with the bases loaded and no outs.
He also left relievers in other precarious situations…but usually they were down several runs…therefore not affecting this statistic very much.
baseballreference has detail, in the game logs I believe, of the situations pitchers exited games.
by insane_sanity on Nov 5, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks man,
I’ve been too busy to look that up. Obviously, that’s not too good so the leverage index doesn’t really give you a good picture of his performance.
That’s what I meant with the blowouts. It’s not perfect, but it’s something.
by Suffering Buc on Nov 4, 2010 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
thank you
Suffering Buc: yes, it is something and I appreciate you putting that out there.
I was not aware any stat existed. Thank you!
by insane_sanity on Nov 4, 2010 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmmm....
every team’s defense was better than the pirates last season
but Buerhle would still pitch much better than Duke if they were both on the Pirates.
and it wouldnt be close.
…says white angus as he sets his magic 8 ball down on the table!
Just messing with you!
In which case, your remark was in error.
Alexei Ramirez is a very good defensive shorstop, well above average for the position.
middle of the pack, but i wouldnt call him above average
would i rather have him than cedeno? duh, yeah.
UZR had him as a double-digit plus last year.
And the Fielding Bible had him in their top 5 at the position (third, IIRC).
I'm mostly on board with this plan.
The one caveat being that I don’t know that Cedeno would me much better with the glove at 2B than he is at SS, and his bat would play even less well at that position. But other than that, I agree pretty wholeheartedly.
Sigh.
Glancing over the Rays’ 2007 statistics, it would be easy to jump to the conclusion that their pitching was their primary problem. Easy, but wrong.
Not wrong. The defense improved, but pitching was the primary problem. Period. Full stop. I’m not going over this again.
curious
can you post a link to where you’ve gone over this? Not a snarky comment, I’m generally curious because I missed whenever it was you discussed this.
Redeemed.
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2008/9/21/618938/rays-make-playoffs-lessons
33 fewer HR
59 fewer BB+HBP
And I don’t know why the Rays bothered to completely re-make their bullpen when all they had to do was improve defense.
33 fewer HR
Tampa HR/FB, 2007: 11.1%
Tampa HR/FB, 2008: 9.3%
Most of that improvement in HR rate was due not to improved pitching, but improved luck as far as balls just going over the wall or just staying in the park.
huh?
you mean they turned on the AC to blow in 2008?
Naw, just normal variance.
Giving up a few more 390-footers in games in small parks one year, and giving up a few more in games in big parks the next year. Approximately the same number of 390-footers in both cases, but the former are HR and the latter are just long outs. Or having a long drive fall into the warning track on the North Side Notch, vs. into the stands three feet to the side.
33 HR aren’t much, over the course of a season. A little more than one “extra” HR every five games. You could watch them play every day and not notice, unless you were specifically trying to track it.
wasnt the TB defense worse this season than before?
bartlett and pena both were down, yes? Rays won this season because of stellar pitching, no?
They may have lost a bit of defense.
But were in the top ten of the league in both seasons.
The Rays won this season because they were good at pretty much everything. Makes it hard to lose.
their hitting was down
but you are pretty much right on the money. going to be interesting to see how Tampa reshapes their roster next season.
We disagree here
I just fully acknowledge I can’t prove that pitchers do have some control over the batted balls they allow.
Pitchers gave up fewer walks in part because the defense made more outs behind them, which shortens the batters faced per inning.
by Adam Reynolds on Nov 4, 2010 12:02 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Agreed
I’ve been arguing for a while that the Pirates should go hyper defensive. They can’t afford a top starting pitcher. They are unlikely to add anything beyond an Adam LaRoche type bat.
The only other option: Focus on defense. That starts by moving Pedro to first and Walker to third. Then you look for middle infield options.
Maybe Cedeno at 2b? Maybe you bring in Aybar or Harding?
But you can improve defensively without spending big bucks.
And it would be the best use of money on a pitch-to-contact pitching staff.
That’s HEDLEY!
.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Nov 3, 2010 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice article, Charlie
You could also try to acquire Ellis or Hudson at 2B and keep Cedeno at SS. I’m just a little leery of moving Cedeno to 2B, but at the same time, I feel like he hasn’t been bad at SS. I wouldn’t mind if he stayed there, and his bat is not awful. Though I’ve always like Hardy.
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
FireRickReilly
Hudson’s a good idea too. I wasn’t sure if the A’s were picking up Ellis’ option.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Nov 3, 2010 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions
It was looking for a while like they wouldn't.
But now the word is that they probably will.
Disappointing.
Here's what I want to know
We’ve covered this ground quite a few times, going back to August. Now, I don’t think that NH reads this site, but if we’ve thought of it, surely he (or one of his assistants) has. Is he really not going to attempt this? All signs are that he is not – there’s never been a hint in this direction, and iirc there was some official-type word that Pedro’s staying put.
So what’s the deal? Is NH not as smart as we think? Is he not as creative as we think? Why isn’t he looking in this direction*?
- I wouldn’t take the lack of statements like, “We’re looking to move the IF around to improve the defense” as indicative, but I take the PA statements as clearly indicative. I’d love to be surprised, but…
So what’s the deal? Is NH not as smart as we think? Is he not as creative as we think? Why isn’t he looking in this direction*?
Seems like a difference of opinion, scouting-wise, on some of our current defenders. They apparently think that Pedro and Walker have enough potential for defensive improvement that it isn’t worth moving them. Which is a valid viewpoint – just not one that I agree with (though I can see it more for Walker than for Pedro).
In NW's case
it’s probably equal likelihood that his lack of lateral mobility this season at 2B was a result of confidence and conviction in the necessary fielding moves, as it was in mere lack of physical ability. Any time you need to have conscious control over a fast and complicated action, you will do it worse than an action which is comfortable and well-practiced. If there is any hesitation or doubt mentally about any fielding action, it will decrease his physical ability to perform it by a large margin.
I’m not saying it’s a guarantee that NW will become a plus defender at second, but he managed to do it at third after being a catcher, so I’m saying it’s worth a shot, barring a vastly superior option at second.
Redeemed.
it’s probably equal likelihood that his lack of lateral mobility this season at 2B was a result of confidence and conviction in the necessary fielding moves, as it was in mere lack of physical ability
Eh, maybe. To my eyes, he just looks like a 3B out there. I don’t think he’s reacting slowly on balls, as much as he is struggling to get up to speed quickly enough to field them before they’re past him.
In general, 3B is more about reaction speed, while 2B is more about acceleration.
I see your point
but I’m saying it’s not so much a factor of reaction time, or physical ability to accelerate sufficiently to field balls; I’m saying that he’s learning a new position and therefore he has to consciously think a great deal about what he’s doing in order to field the position at all. This active thinking is detrimental to physical function; in fact it directly interferes with what he is trying to do. Until second base in general, and the specific actions involved in fielding second base become totally a part of his muscle memory, I don’t think one can eyeball test his physical capability for the position.
Now, there are other valid arguments against giving him additional time in the majors to learn how to field second base, and he indeed might not turn out to be physically capable of being a plus defender there, but I don’t think the eyeball test is enough.
Redeemed.
I think this is exactly right
It’s hard to comprehend just how much NW had to learn on the fly this year. I mean, the guy moved two steps on the defensive spectrum in the wrong direction, and had to do it while being an MLB starter for the first time. And almost everything that IFs do on defense is pure muscle memory, rather than conscious response to the ball in play.
NW may very well not possess the raw talent/ability to be an average/average plus 2B, but what we saw in 2010 is a terrible way to gauge, even if we watched video of every chance he had (which none of us have).
All that said, the biggest positive to moving him to 3B (aside from moving Pedro, who will never be a plus defender at 3B) is that he’s already a plus defender there. I don’t think there’s any plausible story in which the guy is a more valuable defender at 2B than at 3B. And, as I keep pointing out in these threads, 2B and 3B are equivalent offensive positions, popular perception to the contrary. So there’s no magic by which giving up defensive runs at 2B is balanced out by being a superior hitter there: he’s the same hitter relative to the league at 2B as he is at 3B.
it is, however, easier to find someone else to fill in the less-challenging defensive position on the field (especially when one of the top prospects in the upcoming draft where you have the first pick plays that position)…
by Captain Easychord on Nov 3, 2010 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions
(especially when one of the top prospects in the upcoming draft where you have the first pick plays that position)
Can we please stop acting as though it’s inevitable that Rendon will be the pick, or that if he is, he’ll be ready to immediately step onto the field and kick ass?
I certainly wouldn’t be upset if it happened, but it depends on a lot of factors that are out of our control, and as such shouldn’t be the primary plan.
I've been saying it for months,
but it persists…
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Nov 4, 2010 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe it's that simple
And maybe – starting from a position of more defensive optimism than we have – they’ve looked at the upgrade options (and there aren’t many) and decided that there’s no point in trying to go that direction.
I wonder whether they’d change their minds if the right guy dropped in their lap via trade. I can’t think of who right now, but I know I identified a guy or three who could conceivably be available in a trade and would be game-changers in terms of the balance of IF talent. Thing about a Hudson or whoever is that it’s all stopgap. We can make the argument for doing it, but if the FO’s starting from different premises about defensive capability, then a stopgap may not look good enough.
my guess
he wants to give walker a full year’s worth of chances at 2B. and pedro stays at 3rd because it’s easier to find 1b options on the free agent market than it is to find 3b options.
Yes, and
Maholm and Duke are the two most affected by this and also the two most likely to be gone by next year. Thus, why de-value our core pieces for the short term gain of fungible players. I know you could say added trade value to those pitchers, but I’d think the added trade value of Pedro at 3B over 1B outweighs this.
Yes but
Every pitcher – even extreme FB/K guys (not that we have any) – is helped by improved IF defense. I mean, I think that you could be right that this is a factor in the decisionmaking, but if it is, then it’s shortsighted.
I do kind of get that, given our offense last season, NH wouldn’t exactly be ecstatic about the idea of acquiring glove guys with even less offensive capability. Yes, yes, offensive runs==defensive, but it can be hard to be completely rational about that, plus it’s not quite as true as it seems, in that there’s a cumulative effect to offense that isn’t there to defense. Put a HoF defensive SS on any team on earth, and he’ll save more or less the number of runs he would on a good team (assuming a minimally competent 1B glove). But put Barry Bonds on a team of terrible players, and he’ll be able to produce only a fraction of the runs he can on a team with good (or even mediocre) offensive players, because he can’t drive in runners who don’t get on, and he can’t be driven in by batters who can’t hit.
The Pirates kind of exemplified this last year, with no fewer than 4 (well) above-average offensive players and yet the worst offense in baseball (or damn near, not checking the year-end stats). So I can see where NH would be inclined to be focused on adding a bat while hoping for improved D (esp. from NFW) internally.
Thus, why de-value our core pieces for the short term gain of fungible players.
Because defensive improvements don’t just affect those two: they affect all of our pitchers, to one degree or another. If Pedro’s still at 3B in two years, then his glove’s still going to be costing us runs. The only difference will be that he’s screwing Morris and Owens and Locke rather than Duke and Maholm and Karstens.
It's a lot easier to find 3B options...
…if, as with Pedro, they don’t actually need to be able to field the position.
You could even ...
put DY there.
A guy playing the position—-and doing it well—are different things, as Vlad notes.
Can we please put a good defensive team on the field?
Sorry Charlie,
I have a problem with several points here. If we are trying to improve next season’s defense by moving everyone around, I doubt it will help at all.
Pedro Alvarez hasn’t played first base. That may be his future, but he won’t be good there from the start. You take away his main strength at third—his arm, and yet still have his poor mobility in play at first base, and who knows if he can scoop low throws. I don’t like Garrett’s defense at 1B, but Pedro would likely be a downgrade at a postion that is under-rated in that it can save the rest of the infield errors. Pearce and Bowker platooning would probably upgrade this position, and Garrett and Milledge platooning would probably work in right.
So are we willing to say Walker won’t improve by actually going through a spring training at 2B? How can we give up on his defense so quickly when that may be the only position he can be a plus offensive player at.
Those defensive statistics we are relying on are not reliable in small sample sizes, yet we are making some big decisions based on them. With all his tools, McCutchen simply has to be given another year at CF to improve. With a little fine tuning, it seems obvious to my naked eye that he could be a plus defender.
So upgrading Cedeno with Hardy could help, but even that move is questionable. Hardy has declined at SS and with the bat. I wouldn’t mind Hardy SS, with Cedeno as the backup middle infielder.
I just don’t see that improving the defense should be an offseason priority as the Mariners tried last season. We need to hit better and pitch better and play better defense. You can list our pitchers, but what about injuries and Morton like seasons? They happen to every team. We need to improve our depth of usable major league pitchers to choose from, even if it isn’t an ace. And we need to see where the value lies in free agent offensive players. It is pointing to a glut of 1B. I would consider looking at a good defensive 1B that isn’t a type A free agent, like Calos Pena, Adam LaRoche, Lance Berkman, or Lyle Overbay if he is stuck without a job.
I love good defense and would enjoy watching a good defensive Pirate team, but I think they need to improve in all 3 categories, not neglect the pitching and hitting while simply improving defensively. I think it would help the pitching, but not enough to see a significant difference in wins and losses.
I agree here
The pirates being a superb defensive team isn’t going to be the thing that makes them good. Yes, defense is something we need to look at, but the team that included Jack and Freddy was also really good defensively and we weren’t getting too many wins then. We need to improve our offense and pitching, and I feel like the defense will develop in the younger guys. Once the offense and pitching is in a better spot, then I think that defense should be focused on more heavily. Until then, no need to pick up someone like Hardy and move around the infield. Clearly the team is set on Pedro being at third at least for the next year or two.
by Pirates22311718 on Nov 3, 2010 2:55 AM EDT up reply actions
The pirates being a superb defensive team isn’t going to be the thing that makes them good.
Runs are runs. If we can make a 30-run gain from defensive improvements, that’s worth just as much as a 30-run offensive improvement, or a 30-run improvement in the pitching.*
A significant amount of what looks like bad pitching on the team right now is actually bad defense. Which is not to say that better pitching wouldn’t help as well, of course.
*[Actually, run-prevention gains are worth fractionally more than run-creation gains, but you get what I’m saying.]
How so?
Genuinely bad pitching is the result of four things: Too many walks, too few strikeouts, too many line drives, and too many fly balls (since FB rate is what drives HR rate).
Observers aren’t going to see a guy walk the bases full, or give up a bunch of line drives or home runs, or spend all day without missing a bat, and attribute those problems to the defense.
Middle of the pack on BB
Although in a dense knot, closer to 24th than to 12th (and with a small number of IBB, which are of course less damaging than unintentional BB).
On Ks, #27 overall, not especially close to 30th or 20th.
Observers
Observers aren’t going to see a guy walk the bases full, or give up a bunch of line drives or home runs, or spend all day without missing a bat, and attribute those problems to the defense.
You’re ascribing more rationality to observers than can be justified, I think. How many times has a team been described as “listless” simply because they’re not hitting in a given game or series? But there’s no correlation between effort and hitting success. Striking out and grounding out weakly look lame, but they’re not (usually) the consequence of batters who can’t be bothered to try.
Similarly, yes, observers may correctly note that a pitcher is giving up too many walks, but a DP that doesn’t get turned in a 4 run inning looks like a bigger deal than the same failed DP if it occurs in a no-run inning. Pitchers who are failing on their own merits will see outsize consequences from minor defensive failures relative to guys who can strike out more than one per inning, because the grounder that sneaks between your 3B and SS looms larger when guys are already on. No one says, “Oh, don’t blame Walker for failing to get to that ball up the middle, it’s Duke’s fault for failing to strike out the side.”
I was kind of implicitly assuming...
…a reasonable and thoughtful observer, rather than yinzer or a Mark Madden-style lowest-common-denominator analyst. Obviously, idiots are going to get all kinds of different things wrong, because they’re idiots.
No one says, "Oh, don’t blame Walker for failing to get to that ball up the middle, it’s Duke’s fault for failing to strike out the side."
No, but how many times have you heard a commentator complain about how walks will kill you after a leadoff walk came around to score? All the freakin’ time. Even if the walked batter ended up scoring as the result of an error or other defensive miscue.
That doesn't make a defense look bad.
Pitchers who are genuinely getting hit harder (unlike Duke) will give up more line drives, and (sensible/sane/rational) observers won’t expect fielders to be able to field most line drives.
We need
a lot more than a 30 run improvement because all those runs will not happen to occur in one run games, meaning it’s not going to translate into a difference of 30 wins. Defense is definitely in need of improvement but it is definitely not the most important thing to focus on.
by Pirates22311718 on Nov 3, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
It's a relatively easy thing to focus on...
…in that we can make a substantial improvement in that area with only one fairly trivial personnel change, compared to the much higher cost of buying/trading for an elite corner bat (to name one example).
I disagree...
we were last, or next to last, in every traditional and advanced defensive metric out there. How can this not be the most important thing to focus on?
depends
It really depends on how much those ratings are a result of true talent and how much they’re a result of random variation. If you’re just looking at the metrics, you have to regress heavily because there’s not much data for most of our players. If you regress Walker, Pedro, and Cutch’s UZRs toward the fan’s scouting report, you’d call Walker and Pedro -6 defenders, and Cutch -3. That’s 20-25 runs of improvement right there. So I don’t think it’s a given that that’s the most important thing to address, just based on the numbers. I think you could get similar improvements in a lot of different ways, and changing the defense around is just one of them.
It is.
It doesn’t prove that \those guys will be better defensively next year, but I ran the regression correctly. It’s career UZR regressed toward a 200 game sample of the run values derived from the fans’ scouting report.
No, I mean...
…that it’s sound to draw numerical conclusions of that sort from the Fans’ Scouting Report.
why not?
You can convert the individual scores into overall scores, and you can convert the overall scores into runs above or below average using the standard deviation in the spread of scores and the standard deviation in the actual UZR numbers. That will give you runs per 150 or whatever, so then you just need to convert it into a specific run score based on defensive games played. There’s no reason you can’t do this.
Regardless, it’s already been done, by Tango himself. You can check it out on the fangraphs player pages. There’s no reason not to believe it’s valid (for what it’s attempting to do).
I like it.....
Not sure I fully understand it, but I like that you did the work.
The Hammer Speaks
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
i only did the regression
Converting the scouting report into runs was already done by Tango. But thanks.
I see the FSR as more of an interesting toy...
…than as an objective data source. Particularly with teams like the Pirates, where there are significantly fewer responses than with some other teams.
interesting toy or not
It’s the best way we have to balance small samples of defensive metrics with scouting reports. I don’t see any reason to reject it.
the data is definitely accurate
Maybe what you mean is that the fans, as a group, are wrong in their perceptions. Possibly, but I don’t see any reason to believe that, prima facie, and there’s no evidence to support it.
Fair enough...
and good point but we still have the issue of 1B, C and SS to address. Depending on what system you are looking at these positions range from slightly bad to really bad. We have basically negative ratings at every position but LF.
Doumit, Jones, Iwamura, and DY were a combined -35.7 runs on defense. Cleaning house of those guys would have a nice effect.
Then if you move Pedro to 1B, overall we get an estimated 40-run shift defensively from 2010, and that’s with even letting Walker/Cutch get one more shot at their positions.
40-run shift
only puts us ahead of the orioles in terms of runs scored…. not gonna make much of a difference.
by Pirates22311718 on Nov 3, 2010 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions
sorry
i was tired when i said that.. not a valid response on my part
by Pirates22311718 on Nov 3, 2010 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I disagree with you Charlie, for a lot of the reasons that franks did, although I agree with your premise about defensive improvement being important.
The main reason I disagree with your proposed moves is that I think NW needs to be given more time at 2B. If he can be an average defender in that position, then we are talking about a very valuable player. If we are planning on taking Rendon in the draft, then what are we going to do with Walker in 2013 when Rendon arrives? This next season is meaningless anyways, I just want to see our 4 young offensive players improve in all areas and I’d like to see a young pitcher step up – but I don’t care so much about the overall record next year (although these things are related).
Another huge question is whether Cutch will improve his D. Given how important defensive improvement is for this team, I hope that our next coaching staff is composed of excellent teachers.
If we are planning on taking Rendon in the draft, then what are we going to do with Walker in 2013 when Rendon arrives?
One sentence, so many things to dissect.
1. Who’s to say NH is planning on taking Rendon in the draft? I mean, sure, many of us here think Anthony Rendon is the most-logical and only choice, but he is recovering from a serious injury and a lot can happen to either improve or drop someone’s stock in the interim. There may be some absolute stud pitcher come to prominence next year, or Rendon may take a dive off a cliff (not literally, but you get what I’m saying).
2. Who’s to say Rendon will be ready to start in the majors in 2013? It’s true that a lot of the scouts and pundits say he is almost MLB-ready now (injury notwithstanding), but again, a lot can happen once a guy gets some money in his pocket and starts riding the buses down in the minors. He may find drugs, alcohol, women, injuries, religion or any combination of the above and all of a sudden, you’ve got a busted first-rounder and a pocket full of broken dreams, not the next Evan Longoria.
3. As for what to do with Neil Walker in 2013 IF they draft Rendon and IF Rendon is MLB-ready, wouldn’t that be a nice problem to have to worry about then? If Walker continues to develop and improve, why not trade him to fill another hole on the team? Why does he have to stay in Pittsburgh his entire career; is that to appease the Yinzers who love Neil because he’s one of them? He’s a Pirates’ asset first and a Pittsburgher second, and people would be well-served to remember that; if someone else is willing to give fair market value or better for him, NH has to listen no matter the possible public backlash.
by Bishop1973 on Nov 3, 2010 7:01 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed 100%
I certainly will never be too concerned about having more good players than positions available!!! If only the Pirates could have that problem right now!!!
I recd that...
I get tired of hearing the “we can’t do this argument” because we are going to draft Rendon (no offense meant to anyone). I can guarantee that Rendon will not factor in to any of the decisions NH makes this offseason.
Who’s to say Rendon will be ready to start in the majors in 2013?
Rendon starting in the majors in 2013 is an absolute best-case scenario. 2014 is probably more realistic.
Worrying about how we’re going to make room for a guy who isn’t even going to be drafted for another eight months is crazy talk. Too much can change between then and now.
If scouting reports are to be believed, then June 2013 is what the team that drafts Rendon should expect for his debut. This is the same timeframe that worked for Alvarez and my understanding is that Rendon is a more advanced hitter and better fielder than Alvarez. This is also a longer timeframe than Zimmerman and the same timeframe as Longoria, two players that Rendon has been compared to.
If scouting reports are to be believed, then June 2013 is what the team that drafts Rendon should expect for his debut.
Assuming that everything goes according to plan – which is why it’s the best-case scenario.
It’s a small point but I would argue that Ryan Zimmerman represents best-case. He signed in June and was in the majors for good by September (I don’t know why the Nats didn’t play the clock game). We know Rendon won’t sign in June (unless maybe we guarantee a September call-up?), but Zimmerman’s timeframe puts Rendon in Pittsburgh by the middle of 2012.
Zimmerman’s agent is Brodie Van Wagenen from CAA Sports. Rendon, in contrast, is being advised at this point by Scott Boras, who’s well known for his unwillingness to let clients sign prior to deadline day.
There are occasional exceptions like Zimmerman, but even highly polished college bats typically require more than one year in the minors before they’re ready for MLB. It would certainly be nice if Rendon were one of the exceptions, but I don’t think we can (or should) count on it.
Right, which is why mid-2012 is the best case (a Zimmerman timeline but with Rendon not signing until August) and mid-2013 is the expected case (an Alvarez or Longoria timeline).
Zimmerman is enough of an outlier...
…that I don’t know that it makes sense to even treat him as a realistic potential scenario. At least until we have an indication that it might happen. I mean, it’s also techinically possible that he’d come straight to the majors, like John Olerud.
Guess this is more of a semantic thing than an actual point of disagreement, though.
A situation like Olerud...
would be thinking very far outside the box for the Pirates…which is unlikely. I’d say the chances of Rendon going straight to the Pirates are non-zero…but damn close.
I would go ahead and say "zero."
There is no possible way that Rendon would come straight to the majors, because the Pirates would derive no benefit from it. Extra wins in 2011 in exchange for more extra wins in 2016? Unspeakably stupid, and clearly not the way NH acts. Rendon could have the best amateur season in baseball history, and we won’t see him before June, ’12.
No, we are .....
blue skying things and clearly at this point in time Rendon is a viable option. It may not determine what happens this coming year, but just because someone brings up Rendon, it doesn’t invalidate every argument.
The Hammer Speaks
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
Bringing up Rendon as anything but a Plan B/Plan C at this point is indicative of sloppy thinking. We need to come up with a contingency plan for what we’re going to do in the assumption that he won’t be our pick or won’t be ready in time, since the downside of not doing so (getting stuck without a 3B for a year during what should be our notional window of contention) is much larger than the upside (saving a small amount of time/resources by not having redundant options available).
disagree
There’s a 65% chance or so that Rendon is playing 3b for the Pirates by 2014. He’s clearly the best player in the draft, and premiere college hitters make it to the show very quickly, in general. Sure, there are things that could prevent the Pirates from taking him, or prevent him from reaching the majors within two years of being drafted, but it is far more likely that he’s playing 3b for the Pirates beginning in June 2013. That is Plan A and it’s not sloppy thinking to acknowledge it.
If it doesn’t turn out that way, there’s nothing preventing the Pirates from moving Walker to 3b next year or a couple of years from now or from signing an FA placeholder. And that’s before even considering that another 3b prospect might emerge from somewhere in the next three years. That doesn’t strike me as much of a problem.
There is also nothing preventing moving Walker to 3B next season...
in that his inevitable replacement isn’t even on the team yet. I don’t think it’s sloppy thinking to believe we will draft Rendon, 65% chance or not (won’t ask where you came up with that number), but it is sloppy thinking to want to build your roster for the next two seasons around a guy who has a 35% chance (using your data) of not being the starting 3B in 2014.
Exactly
Walker and Rendon are different issues.
Walker needs to be at 3b next year to improve the defense.
If the Pirates draft Rendon, and he’s the player projected, the Pirates will work something out.
Maybe Walker becomes an OF? Who knows? But you need to worry about next year, not 2013 or 2014.
Jim Calis at BP when talking about how this draft stacks up to last year says
But I’d take the top 2011 position player (Anthony Rendon) over either Harper or Machado
I don’t see any way we don’t take Rendon.
by Wizard of Woz on Nov 3, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t see any way we don’t take Rendon.
He could step in a gopher hole and break the ankle again. Or get arrested, like Angel Villalona. Or quit baseball to become a priest, like Grant Desme.
A lot can happen in a year. There was a time when Pedro was supposed to be a lock to go first overall, too.
ok
Barring the unexpected, I don’t see how we don’t take Rendon.
by Wizard of Woz on Nov 3, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Barring the unxepected
I don’t see any way we don’t take Rendon.
by Wizard of Woz on Nov 3, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I imagine
what he and people who say similar things actually mean is that there’s something like a 75-80% chance that we take Rendon. It might not happen, but there’s a very good chance it does.
As it pertains to the conversation at hand, I don’t see why you wouldn’t factor the high probability that they select Rendon into the decision about whether to move Walker to 3b. That doesn’t mean it’s an absolute “no” on Walker to 3b, but you have to consider Rendon in the decision-making process.
?
That doesn’t mean it’s an absolute "no" on Walker to 3b, but you have to consider Rendon in the decision-making process.
Why? Not being a smart ass but I just don’t get why Rendon would have any impact at all on decisions going into next season’s roster’ or even 2012’s roster for that matter.
because
if we make Walker a 3b now, it will be that much harder to convert him back to 2b in a couple years. So what going to be going on with 3b in a couple years is a factor. If there’s a 35% chance that Rendon’s going to be the 3b by 2014 and a 50% chance that Walker will be a decent 2b if we just leave him there, that’s a strong case for leaving Walker at 2b. The percentages are just for the sake of argument – the point is that you have to consider all those factors and more.
OTOH
In a few years, if Walker’s tearing it up it wouldn’t be that big a deal to find another spot for him. RF would fit nicely for him, as he’s athletic and has a good arm. If he’s not tearing it up, why get worked up about it?
Walker looked good last year for sure, but he’s got a lot to prove before he becomes someone you build around.
Redeemed.
10 run difference
in positional adjustment between 2B/3B and RF. Walker is 1 WAR less valuable in RF than he is in the infield, unless you think that he’s a vastly better defender in RF, which is not based on anything I can think of. It could be that he’s an average RF and never exceeds -10 at 2B, but that’s an argument for putting him at 3B with his +10 defense.
If he can’t become a (roughly) average defender at 2B, then you really need to put him at 3B, where he’s 2 WAR better than he is at 2B (10 D vs. -10 D, no adjustment) or at RF (10 D and +10 adjustment). And, as Slick1 says, you can always trade him if he’s a 4 WAR 3B – you hate to do it, but you could surely get great return, and it’s smarter than moving him elsewhere and reducing his value both to yourself and as a trade piece.
NB, all numbers above (except positional adjustment) rough placeholders, but correct on the order of magnitude IMO.
All this is totally right
I was just posing the hypothetical that Walker gets moved to third and continues to rake… the point is that if it’s really that important to keep him, and Rendon or whoever comes up, you can always move Walker somewhere other than 2B.
i agree that trading him would likely be the right move at that point, though a small sentimental part of me would want him to stay, being a hometown kid.
Redeemed.
I agree with that sentiment
It would be a hard move, especially given how hard he’s worked to get here. But at the same time, he’d be – if he continues to hit at anything like this rate – a very valuable piece as a plus 3B with an above-average bat and team control. Trade deadline 2013, he could be worth any non-All Star in the league (well, not guys who are as good and even younger, obvs.).
There is also, of course...
…the possibility of having Rendon learn a different position if Walker has established himself as an elite 3B by the time Rendon’s ready for the majors.
I think what Woz is saying
is that barring Rendon, we don’t take the unexpected.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Nov 3, 2010 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Or, in MY case,
it would be unexpected if I passed a bar.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Nov 3, 2010 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Can I have your bar?
you can send it to me via your hands if you want…
by BlindSquirrel on Nov 3, 2010 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions
wait...
in retrospect, that sounded like something PiratesForMen would say. I was talking about a chocolate bar.
by BlindSquirrel on Nov 3, 2010 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions
You passed the bar?
Congratulations! Let’s go to the bar and celebrate.
The Hammer Speaks
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
L'chaim!
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Nov 6, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Then there's
the obvious poop joke waiting to be unveiled…
Any takers?
by BlindSquirrel on Nov 4, 2010 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Boyohboy
chocolate bars? poop?
Mind in the gutter much, mate?
;-)
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Nov 6, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I couldn't agree more Charlie.....
…an excellent post! I would love to see the Pirates add hardy; your plan is spot-on!
A couple points that I’ll toss out:
1. This seems like a better idea for 2012 once we have a full year of data on Walker at 2nd and Alvarez at 3rd, and know whether Rendon is in our system or not. I don’t expect us to compete in 2011 (though I do expect significant improvement with a full year of Alvarez, Tabata, Walker, McDonald, etc.), so let’s keep options open. If Walker can play 2nd and Alvarez 3rd, then we have better flexibility for the future.
2. Isn’t this basically the strategy that Seattle tried this year? That’s not to say it isn’t a good strategy (I actually like it—nothing is better than nice, neat 2-1 or 3-2 baseball games), but they would just need to be sure to have enough hitting to go with the improved defense (Hardy and SS and Cedeno at 2nd would raise some concern that we’d have a pretty weak bottom of the order—for much of this year it seemed we were trying to win with only 2/3 or worse of a decent lineup).
Isn’t this basically the strategy that Seattle tried this year?
Wanting to improve your defense isn’t a magic bullet – you still need to pick the right players, and think about how all the pieces fit together. For example, common sense would seem to dictate that if you go into a season with Bradley (fragile and prone to slumps when injured), Sweeney (slow as grim death), and Griffey (washed up) on the same roster, you can’t spend the whole season hiding all three in the DH slot.
dump idiot shift, keep G Jones in RF, and bring in a SS who's consistent
those 3 moves alone will add a ton to that WAR number IMO.
1B, Bowker/ Pearce platoon or acquire a 1B w/ atleast average defense and some POWER.
Bring in a manager who brings some excitement to this team…some concentration/ energy…a winning attitude,,,ect…all these things improve performance on the field and at the plate.
BTW, I believe Walker should get a full year at 2B…plus working w/ Maz along w/ a workout regime designed to increase lateral quickness…he will improve NO DOUBT…but how much is the issue.
1B, Bowker/ Pearce platoon or acquire a 1B w/ atleast average defense and some POWER.
Not much out there in FA, as far as the latter goes. The top 1B bats on the market are mostly marginal-to-poor fielders like Konerko.
as you mentioned in another thread,
Derek Lee is a bust candidate, but he would be one with plus defense and a good bat, if he performed well.
Redeemed.
Lee has been a good fielder in the past.
I worry about how much he’s got left in the tank, though. He’s a big guy – even a small loss of speed could have significant negative effects on his D.
Still, he or LaRoche are probably the closest guys out there to what Dan was talking about.
LaRoche ...
would be an improvement. Not a dramatic one.
But he’s better than GJ defensively and offensively.
Good point...
While I admit that Laroche would be an upgrade of this season’s version of Jones, I think the Bucs can do better than Laroche.
I really wouldn't want to see Laroche back
Fire D Long and bring in a very good batting coach…My sleeper into next year is Bowker…if he can ever “calm” himself down and stay patient, he must in AAA is my guess as the numbers are outstanding…but at a few games this year, he stayed back that split second and ripped the ball, even outs were hard hit…his issue was getting out on the front foot and pulling it foul down the line or having an arm swing as the hip/ hands are locked from being on that front foot.
His swing when weight is back is outstanding, I have no doubt he’d hit 20 plus w/ PNC and .300 wouldn’t be out of the question.
Should he be platooned? Against a tougher lefty, definitely…same w/ Garret too…as he’s another one who Long has so screwed up that I’m shocked he hit as well as he did.
I’ll stick to my thoughts that 2011 could be a good year if they hire a “REAL” manager, coaching staff and allow job competition…last years disaster was the easiest call ever.
I would like to see Long replaced as well...
I really like Bowker’s swing but I hate his approach. I’m skeptical even a good hitting coach could get him to be more patient at the plate at this stage of the game. But if there is one I agree that I think Bowker has the talent to be pretty effective. I haven’t gone back and looked for myself but taking your analysis of Jones’ swing, if we could get an instructor to get him straight it would be wiser to keep Jones in the mix somewhere.
Bowker's most recent MiLB stint
certainly indicates he’s figured out how to be patient at the plate. Getting that approach to the majors is harder, but it can be done, which is where quality instruction will help. He’s not been patient most of his career, but when the Giants sent him down this time, he did a helluva job in 3A. It could be that he got lucky some, but its probably more likely that he made some legit improvements.
I agree...
but I didn’t see that same approach when he was being given a look in Pittsburgh. That’s what concerns me.
For most part he's too anxious
In college, our highest recruited hitter had the same issue when he “climbed” into a higher competition/ stress level. The kid was sick w/ the bat in batting practice, was highly recruited yet his first year (played as freshman) was terrible…he was way out front and way too anxious, his soph year, his father came to every early game and they’d do breathing exercises before the games…almost like yoga I guess…but it seemed to really calm him down, he absolutely raked from then on. His father said he had the same issue when he went to varsity from JV in HS…also when he the first year he made an american travel team.
Honestly, that’s what I see w/ Bowker…just too anxious at the plate…the swing is really good, good power, great hips/wrist when relaxed and back….but IMO, he just needs to calm down and relax.
Good point...
because that’s exactly what it looks like. He came out of the gates swinging at everything; definitely looked over anxious. GIven that he did this throughout most of his minor league career it’s hard to get a read on what kind of hiiter he can be. There’s no disputing that he has the tools to be successful though.
and you're right...
the swing is pretty. Nice and short and he gets his wrists through the zone so quickly. It just looks so fluid, no wasted movement.
Dan
You are probably a better “scout” than I am. My highest level of ball was Johnstown junior year.
But I wasn’t wowed by his swing late in the year. It looked okay.
I see the power. But I didn’t see a consistent swing. I also saw someone trying to pull the ball too much.
Bernie
when he stayed back…great swing…but you are right for 90% of his stint up here, way out front…pulling everything foul or way out on front foot locking himself out… looked like he had a death grip on the bat, he literally looked like he was on speed…just really hyper…
Like I mentioned before, I’ve seen it before w/ a very talent player…when you are that hyped, you lose fluidity, you lose focus, you lose timing, and you tend to lock yourself up.
When seeing Bowker hit when patient/ relaxed…it tells a story of significant upside…the swings there, the talent is there, but somehow he needs to just calm down and let his natural reactions take over. This is where a good coach/ instructor ect…makes his money IMO…it’s not all about fundamentals ect…it’s also about atmosphere, attitude, and confidence…Showalter’s Orioles didn’t all of a sudden mature in 1 day as some have suggested here, the atmosphere/attitude/philosophy changed immediately and those kids played to their potential.
Pgh has alot more potential than what we’ve demonstrated…unfortunantly we’re prob getting another yes man puppet in here soon.
I have trouble being objective about Bowker...
…because literally every time I watched him play, it was one of his successful games. There are at least two or three occasions where I turned on the TV or walked into the bar and he immediately hit a home run. By the end of the season, it was kind of comical.
Guess I should try and catch more games next year, if he wins a starting job.
Vlad = rabbit’s foot.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Nov 4, 2010 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
That's good, Vlad, but ...
who sucks when you turn the TV on.
You need to take that into consideration as well.
Well, Argenis Diaz, for one.
Though I think God’s more the party at fault there, for not giving him any baseball talent in the first place.
I think it would be a great idea to try to drastically improve the defense. I think players who earn their WAR at the plate tend to be more expensive than players who earn their WAR in the field, so a team like the Bucs should try to acquire some elite gloves, if possible.
How about Pedro in right field? He does have a cannon, and putting him at first base eliminates the one defensive plus he has.
"Very" seems strong
I commented at the end of September, I had seats at the final game that were perfectly on line between 3B and 1B, and saw a few PA throws, and they were absolutely perfect. Anyone on this board could have caught them. I don’t recall Pedro throwing any into the stands, or anything so extreme that would justify “very erratic.” Simply “erratic,” maybe – his arm may not, in fact, be good enough for the OF, especially if you’re hoping for great one-hop throws to 3B or C – but let’s not exaggerate a flaw into an insurmountable weakness.
The arm was not providing positive value this year...
…but I could see it projecting as an asset in the future, with more consistency.
The arm is much less of a concern than the range and footwork.
first off: next season is meaningless… if all goes well, the team might be competitive in 2012, but that’s predicated upon a lot of “ifs”…
that being said, who cares if the defense is any better next year? there’s still plenty to learn about what the pirates have at hand… we really don’t know whether neil walker can handle second base… some folks can say it doesn’t look like he can, others can say he has the talent and the athleticism to handle the position… if we give him another year at the keystone, what does that hurt? if it turns out he can handle second, the 2012 pirates are that much better off… if not, you can move him back to third later on…
I’m less optimistic about pedro at third, but if he can find a way to be acceptable there, doesn’t that help the team down the line as well? I would think it would be easier to find a first baseman than to find someone to play third (or second)…
by Captain Easychord on Nov 3, 2010 9:58 AM EDT reply actions
I agree with this.
I want to see Walker and Alvarez get another year at their respective positions, especially Walker. I’m all for upgrading the short stop position though.
if we give him another year at the keystone, what does that hurt?
It potentially hurts the development of young pitchers. If we call up someone like Owens in the second half and all his balls in play bleed through into the outfield, he’s going to feel like he can’t rely on the guys behind him and start trying to be too fine with his pitches.
It also hurts the trade value of any veteran arms on staff. If we’re inclined to move a guy like Maholm or Hanrahan at the deadline, his numbers will look better to the naked eye if he gets better defensive support.
if he can find a way to be acceptable there, doesn’t that help the team down the line as well?
It would help, yes. Unfortunately, I don’t see any way for him to get there from where he is right now. He’s been a 3B for years without making much progress, and time and biology are not on his side.
I don't know that I'd say...
Walker didn’t make any progress as a 3B. The FIRST game he played as a professional at 3B (and probably at all) wasn’t until 2007. By the end of 2008 he was considered a very good 3B defensively at AAA. His lack of progress, as everybody seems to remind me of, was his offensive output or lack thereof. Walker’s 3B fielding percentages in the minors were very close to LaRoche’s…with a lot less experience at the position.
That’s not to say I’d expect Walker to become a GG at 2B, he might not make it as a 2B. But to say he didn’t make progress defensively at 3B is contrary to what a lot of scouts were indicating at the time. Scouts you say I should be taking the word of.
I don’t know that I’d say… Walker didn’t make any progress as a 3B.
I certainly wouldn’t say that – Walker made substantial progress at third after being moved. The remarks about third base performance that I was quoting and responding to were about Pedro, not Walker.
It potentially hurts the development of young pitchers.
Presuming that the “young pitchers” here are last season’s Altoona quartet, I don’t think anyone anticipates that we’ll see any of those guys in Pittsburgh until the second half… by which point we should at least have a slightly better idea of Walker’s ability to handle second… If he’s still a butcher out there, that’s one thing… if he’s improved to being close to average, I dunno how concerned I would be about having him backup the young ‘uns… and if it’s questionable, maybe give Walker the day off half the time when Owens starts…
It also hurts the trade value of any veteran arms on staff.
It seems awfully speculative to choose the marginal trade value of Paul Maholm with alternative defense over the possibility of Walker as a passable second baseman… and really, it might come down to that… Duke might not be around to take advantage of defensive improvement and I’d be surprised if NH was looking to move Hanrahan (whose numbers are much less likely to be affected by Walker’s defense)…
all this also presumes the worst case scenario where Walker tanks at second… but what if he turns out to be not terrible? in that case, the pirates might have their guy at second base and still be able to reap all the benefits of an improved defense?
the downside of keeping walker at second is entirely predicated on the notion that he will continue to be terrible at the position… even then, the downside seems somewhat limited and the problems can be mitigated, I think… personally, I’d rather have the increased knowledge of Walker’s defensive capabilities and the chance to hit it big than the slim potential benefits to playing it safe… (I’m a lot less interested in keeping alvarez at third though)…
by Captain Easychord on Nov 3, 2010 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think anyone anticipates that we’ll see any of those guys in Pittsburgh until the second half
I can think of at least one guy here who’s been pushing for Owens to get consideration for the opening day rotation, and he probably isn’t the only one harboring those kind of hopes.
the marginal trade value of Paul Maholm
In front of a neutral defense, Paul Maholm was a #3 (borderline #2) on a good team up until last year’s second-half collapse. That has considerable trade value at the deadline. And it’s not just Maholm. Every pitcher on the staff is hurt, to one degree or another, by the defense. So if we’re planning on trading anybody at any time within the next year or two, keeping our crappy defense is going to reduce the future return on those deals.
even then, the downside seems somewhat limited
Under the downside scenario where Walker can’t make any improvement at 2B, he’s something like a -15 to -20 defender over a full season by the numbers. There’s also the matter of his 3B instincts atrophying as he spends more time at 2B. The transition back to 3B will be harder for him to make the more time he spends at another position in the interim.
Hurts the trade.......
value of veterans? Really? You mean we can figure out that a bad defense is effecting their performance and results but no other front offense can? Come on, that’s silly. No front office is just basing things on the naked eye.
The Hammer Speaks
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
I was thinking the same thing
Not every FO relies on xFIP, but I assume that the majority of them are at least aware of it, and if Duke/Maholm are on the trade market next June with xFIPs of 4.25 and ERAs of 5.25, you’d have to be a pretty shitty GM not to explore a bit further. At which point presumably you’d figure out what we amateurs with day jobs are already anticipating 6 months beforehand.
Ceteris paribus, they’re more valuable with good ERAs and good xFIPs than with bad ERAs and good xFIPs, but you can’t let that drive much of your decisionmaking.
All that said, as I said above, everyone benefits from good defense. If there aren’t awesome alternatives on the FA market for SPs, 1Bs, and RFs (and there aren’t), then it’s a good place to look for improvement.
Just because a GM knows how much a guy should be worth...
…in a neutral environment doesn’t mean that he isn’t going to try and get a discount for ugly-looking raw stats anyway. It’s just how negotiations work.
You mean we can figure out that a bad defense is effecting their performance and results but no other front offense can? Come on, that’s silly. No front office is just basing things on the naked eye.
You wouldn’t think so, but look at all the trade rumors around Duke at the deadline in ’09, and then look at his status right now. Is it even debatable that our defense damaged his trade value?
Tim Dierkes
floated the idea of Hardy being non-tendered. Other than people on blogs repeating him, has it been suggested anywhere else? I’d guess given the Twins lack of a replacement and their pitch to contact staff, cutting him loose isn’t expected or “apparent.”
Maybe I’m wrong about his reputation too, but outside of the noisy clique of haters in Milwaukee, its as a better than most defender.
Other than people on blogs repeating him, has it been suggested anywhere else?
Not that I’ve seen, no. It seems like wishcasting to me.
we Pirate fans
certainly know how to cast a good wish.
OMG we could sign Cliff Lee and Jayson Werth and trade for Felix Hernandez, right? Problems solved, good day.
Redeemed.
another idea
I love the idea of improving the defense, but I also agree that giving Walker and Alvarez another season at second and third respectively would be prudent in trying to maximize long-term value. Basically, NH has to go with whatever his scouts are saying on this one, and I will be fine with whichever side he comes down on. Even if Walker and Alvarez stay where they are and don’t show any improvement, it’s not going to be the difference between competing and not, so I don’t see it as a huge deal either way. (Objections about hurting pitcher confidence and trade value are noted, but the long-term advantages of NW being able to stick at 2B, as well as the potential boon to the trade values of Jones or Bowker or Pearce by actually letting them play outweigh the potential short-term damage to confidence and trade value for pitchers, in my opinion.)
But another tack the Pirates could take along these same lines is to reform their pitching staff – not necessarily making it better, but changing its style. Getting an FA like Vazquez or Francis, who are flyball pitchers, and trading Maholm would give the Pirates a bunch of guys who minimize the impact of their infield defense by getting Ks (relative to Maholm and Duke, anyway) and allowing flyballs. PNC will limit the homeruns and the outfield defense will turn more BIP into outs than the infielders would.
Of course, there are disadvantages to this plan, too. For one, Maholm’s trade value isn’t that good right now, and trading him would remove one of our more reliable SP, which maybe isn’t the best idea. Also, it’s not like our outfield defense is top-notch. Finally, our starters would be predominantly RH, which doesn’t play to PNC’s huge LF. Nonetheless, I think this might be the best option for balancing team improvement in 2011 with the long-term potential of continuing to develop Walker at 2B and Alvarez at 3B.
But another tack the Pirates could take along these same lines is to reform their pitching staff – not necessarily making it better, but changing its style. Getting an FA like Vazquez or Francis, who are flyball pitchers, and trading Maholm would give the Pirates a bunch of guys who minimize the impact of their infield defense by getting Ks (relative to Maholm and Duke, anyway) and allowing flyballs.
That approach could work, but the difficulty there is that high-K pitchers tend to be much more expensive in trade or on the FA market than low-K pitchers of equivalent quality.
Market efficiency is not if our favor...
but given epoc’s reasoning, which I believe is sound, would it not be better to have a couple of Ohlendorf type pitchers instead of Duke and Maholm? Ohly is not a big K guy and an Ohly clone could probably be found via trade. Vasquez seems like a good bounce back candidate though I don’t think he’ll sign with us but there has to be some Ohly types out there to be had.
yeah
Vazquez, Justin Duchscherer, Kevin Millwood, and Aaron Harang are all free agents with decent K rates and flyball tendencies. You could add guys like Jeff Francis and Brad Penny whose K rates are a bit below average. Someone is going to end up being a good value. You could probably get Harang and Duchscherer both for under $10MM. Vazquez would be the best get, but I’m not at all sure what the market for him is going to be like.
duchscherer signing should get someone fired (might as well burn the money)
His injury track record is only second to Pryor over the past couple years…you cant waste money on a guy like that…and Harang seemed to lose everything last year along w/ getting hurt…his careers definitely on the downslope.
I’d love a vazquez but dont think he’d want any part of pgh…Millwood’s pitching turned around the day balt hired a real manager…I feel we’ll get another dunce here so it’s a crap shoot on him…that said, Millwoods stuff is still ok, that whole balt team went thru the motions (sound like any team we know LMAO) until buck was hired….too many people here underestimate the overall effect a manager and his coaches have on a team.
too many people here underestimate the overall effect a manager and his coaches have on a team.
And can you cite evidence that a manger has more of an overall effect than people are estimating?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Nov 3, 2010 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd much rather spend money on a De La Rosa
He did have a finger injury but he’s not on a downslope, he’s been quite effective when healthy and has the ability to be our #1 easily.
He may cost a couple mil more than others mentioned but we have had enough “GARBAGE PICKING” the past decade…it’s throwing good money after bad…I’d rather have 1 de la rosa than both Harang and Duch…we need some higher end players instead of the “QUANTITY over QUALITY”..at times you have to step out and spend some money on someone who’s actually pitching well…not guys getting killed hoping for a turnaround esp when nothing is even remotely pointing to them as a turn around candidate.
de la rosa
is the new Oliver Perez. Guys who can’t throw strikes and cost millions of dollars aren’t smart investments. Throw in a bit of an injury history, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster. Then of course you also have to sacrifice your second round draft pick for him.
I'm skeptical about De La Rosa signing here.
He’s going to get $10M+ per – that’s an awful lot.
Harang, in contrast, probably gets less than half that much. There’s some collapse risk with Harang, but I think getting him out of GAB would help a fair bit. Just don’t give him too many years.
JDLR
the multiple years may be the breaking point – as Vlad says, 10M+ is a lot, but I’d still consider 2yrs at 10M per. Giving him 4 or so is the scary part…
I’d jump on Vazquez for a 2yr at 5M per, with incentives to go to 8M per. I doubt Vazquez will do it though…
There's virtually no way...
…that he doesn’t get more than two years, and he could easily end up with a Ryan Dempster-type deal. This is not a deep market for SPs.
In general, it's best to focus first and foremost...
…on acquiring talented players, rather than worrying about the particular shape that their performances will take.
Agreed...
but, for argument sake, if you are playing the market efficiency game, you have to acquire talent to maximize wins within a given budget. For a team like the Pirates, a player’s skill set matters in the overall evaluation of that player. In a vacuum, you may give Westbrook a grade of 7 and Harang a grade of 6. But when you look at them playing half of their games at PNC, with our defense, those scores my change taking into account their expected results. This whole argument is predicated on the fact that the Pirates are set on acquiring pitching. I still think improving the defense is the way to go.
His velocity plummeted a lot, though. Very risky.
by Adam Reynolds on Nov 3, 2010 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions
True, but pitching in the NL Central instead of the AL East (or NL East, if you want to go back further) would shave a full run off his ERA, even if our defense is below average.
by Suffering Buc on Nov 3, 2010 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Don’t know if I buy that. No velocity back to where it was equals a dead duck, in my opinion.
by Adam Reynolds on Nov 4, 2010 12:10 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Walker at third
Could someone point me toward the scouting report or whatever that indicates that Walker is a plus defender at third? I don’t think I’ve ever read that, and I’m having trouble finding any evidence that supports it. How good Walker is at third should be a major factor in considering this move.
Link goes to BA's pre-2009 Pirates top 10.
In the scouting report, they note that the managers of the International League picked him as the best-fielding 3B in the league in 2008. BA also says that he’s very athletic and has a strong arm, and that he could probably make a successful transtition to RF if he got squeezed out of 3B by LaRoche/Pedro.
There was a lot of that kind of stuff written around that time, mostly along the same lines.
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- Chris Perez follows rant against Cleveland fans with even better rant against Cleveland fans
- Pitcher Clayton Richard gets key pinch single in 13th after coming in 0 for 16
- Livan Hernandez welcomes ball boy to the bigs with shower of sunflower seeds (VIDEO)
- Man beaten by four others in Dodger Stadium parking lot
