BP's Top 20 Pirates Prospects
by biggyv on Nov 8, 2010 9:05 AM EST
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Five-Star Prospects
1. James Taillon, RHP
2. Stetson Allie, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
3. Luis Heredia, LHP
4. Tony Sanchez, C
Three-Star Prospects
5. Rudy Owens, LHP
6. Bryan Morris, RHP
7. Starling Marte, OF
8. Jeff Locke, LHP
9. Diego Moreno, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
10. Colton Cain, LHP
11. Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP
And 12-20:
12. Mel Rojas, Jr., OF
13. Zack Dodson, LHP
14. Alex Presley, OF
15. Gorkys Hernandez, OF
16. Chase D'Arnaud, SS
17. Andrew Lambo, OF
18. Nick Kingham, RHP
19. Josh Harrison, INF
20. Quincy Latimore, OF
So, the three teenage pitchers acquired at the end of the draft signing period are the top three prospects in the system according to Kevin Goldstein. Let's compare his list to the Community Prospect List we voted upon here at BD back in September (conveniently also a Top 20 if you include Honorable Mention players):
1. Jameson Taillon
2. Tony Sanchez
3. Bryan Morris
4. Rudy Owens
5. Stetson Allie
6. Starling Marte
7. Jeff Locke
8. Luis Heredia
9. Andrew Lambo
10. Zach von Rosenberg
11. Colton Cain
12. Justin Wilson
13. Chase d'Arnaud
14. Exicardo Cayonez
15. Mel Rojas
Honorable Mentions: Jarek Cunningham, Brock Holt, Gorkys Hernandez, Diego Moreno, Evan Chambers
It looks like we prefer performance to projection, at least compared to BP. Certainly a couple of big differences; we're higher on Lambo and Cayonez (who doesn't make BP's top 20), whereas Goldstein is higher on Moreno and Dodson (who doesn't make BD's top 20, and never really entered the discussion as I recall).
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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It’s a decent list. I was mildly surprised to see Lambo ranked outside the top 12, but he’s a one-tool guy whose tool may not be that special. I also think Marte should be outside the top-10, but I’ve never seen him play and can’t really judge. In any case, prospect lists are pretty irrelevant. It will all get sorted out on the field.
justin wilson isnt on the prospects list at all?
and Lambo still has potential. i most prospect pickers dont even know whom is in a teams farm system except the glamour ones, like New York, Boston, Hanshin. >:P
nah, Goldstein generally know what he's doing
It’s possible he forgot about WIlson, or maybe he just doesn’t think very highly of him.
Redeemed.
He just forgot about Wilson? That’s hard to believe.
by Adam Reynolds on Nov 8, 2010 10:54 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
KG just mentioned on twitter
that WIlson was number 21. He said he’ll post more info in the article’s comments soon. Stay tuned.
Redeemed.
Wilson is considered a reliever by most scouts,
and considering that he doesn’t project as a back-of-the-bullpen type of arm, he’s basically being ranked as a middle-reliever.
Considering the dime-a-dozen nature of those types of prospects, if the scouts which KG have talked to profile him as such, I have no problem seeing him outside the top-20.
by getwonkafied on Nov 8, 2010 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
I think that BD posters severely overrate Lambo
If he hadn’t made a BA Top 100 list and wasn’t 6’3" would anyone even bother separating him from Alex Presley?
Sure the upside is there but he’s still a guy with 800 AA at bats with an OPS of under .750.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Nov 8, 2010 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
If he hadn’t made a BA Top 100 list and wasn’t 6’3" would anyone even bother separating him from Alex Presley?
In a world where his past performance did not merit inclusion on BA’s Top 100 list and physical stature were unimportant, his status would not be as high as it is. That is not, however, the world in which we live.
Sure the upside is there but he’s still a guy with 800 AA at bats with an OPS of under .750.
Repeat after me: Age-relative-to-level is important when assessing prospects. After all, at the end of last year Tabata had 683 AA at bats with an OPS under .750, too (.732, to be precise).
Of course age relative to level is important but I don’t see anyone rushing to put Josh Harrison or Robbie Grossman in our top ten lists either…I just happen to believe that in this case the alchemical mix doesn’t add up around here and apparently neither does Goldstein.
Tabata was even younger relative to level and had other tools that were rated highly, Lambo is a power bat prospect with a lower walk rate than Jose posted which is already lower than you’d like.
There are extenuating circumstances in Lambo’s case and he’s definitely a player that I like to have in our system but I can’t put him in my top ten prospects.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Nov 8, 2010 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t see anyone rushing to put Josh Harrison or Robbie Grossman in our top ten lists either
Neither Harrison nor Grossman has ever had a season as good as Lambo’s 2007 or 2008.
Tabata was even younger relative to level and had other tools that were rated highly, Lambo is a power bat prospect with a lower walk rate than Jose posted which is already lower than you’d like.
Which is why Tabata’s rating last year was higher than Lambo’s current rating. A lot of people had Tabata in the team’s top 5 before the start of the year.
They were terrible, we all know that, but that isn’t my point at all.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Nov 8, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
Not really a surprise,
but Alderson fell completely off the charts.
Pirates, Vikings, Hokies. I'm used to heartbreak. At least I have the Penguins....
"When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on earth."
-The Great One
by blackjackfishtaco on Nov 8, 2010 11:40 AM EST reply actions
Alderson
Maybe he can find his mechanics. He shouldn’t be on any list.
But he’s still a young guy and obviously did something right his first few years in the minors.
But last year’s mess is hard to forget.
same thing was said about bryan morris
i’ll harp on alderson to succeed until he becomes an ex-pirate
I don't think Morris...
…was ever throwing in the low 80s.
I mean, other than freshman year of high school, or whatever.
my point is that morris came back from not only surgery, but a supposed bad attitude and poor performance
alderson should not be written off, especially at his young age. he was drafted and thought of highly before this past season
Alderson could have a 2011 season
that’s similar to Bryan Morris in 2010
Odds are completely against him though
It's a lot easier...
…to overcome TJ (something like a 97% success rate), a bad attitude, and one bad season than it is a total lack of major league stuff.
Alderson has a non-zero chance of making it back to where he was, but I certainly wouldn’t put any money on it at this point.
At Flor this past year
Alderson is a big kid…he literally looked like he was lobbing the ball…I know I mentioned it here, it looked like he was throwing change ups…you dont expect a bigger kid like that to throw that soft…we were laughing because the catcher throwing it back had more zip on his throws.
I’d love to see him strike gold or something but he had absolutely nothing…when SF traded him, it was known he lost alot prior to the deal…but what happened this past year?
Dan
I don’t get it. His early statistics and scouting reports looked like he was going to be a solid MLB starter. It probably would be a #4. But still he’d have a spot.
I know he’s a big guy with complex mechanics. But there has to be something else going on.
most of the year
i expected it would turn out that he was injured and probably requiring surgery. I dont know what this is, now
its pretty sad when a pirates fan is "laughing because the catcher is throwing it back with more zip"
sounds like you LIKE IT when Neal’s aquisitions fall on their faces.
But...
Alderson is still only 21 years old….
Should he be off of the prospects list? Sure.
Give up on him? Not yet.
Plus....
Alderson has a lifetime minor league slugging percentage of .560, plus an OPS of .846!!!! (That’s what having 3 of your 5 minor league hits being HRs will do for you!!)
Can he play another position??? (just kidding)
Perhaps
the Giants rushed him? Moved up to AA at age 20. You figure that on a normal schedule, Alderson would probably just now be making a move to AA, so I don’t think it was that big of a deal that he went back to A ball last year.
its not that he went back to A ball
its the extreme circumstances surrounding it. He was actually holding his own in AA, till it all fell apart…
The decline in stuff ...
is the problem.
Yes, he’s still young. But he’s not going anywhere throwing his heat at 84 mph.
After reading the BP article
One might quible about some players or their position but overall I don’t have a problem with it. The one thing that I do agree with is that they are still at least 5 yrs away IF they keep drafting a priority. When I read that new mgmt’s goal was to build through the draft I think all of us knew based on teams like the Rays and Marlins that it would take 10 yrs. After looking at BP’s list from ‘08 I actually cringed. Although I knew what it was, seeing it again just blows my mind. How could anybody with one ounce of brains let the system fall to that state, just think what it would look like if they didn’t draft AMac. If future mgmt ever starts down that path again fans should tear down PNC Park.
by oldfrothingslosh on Nov 8, 2010 2:52 PM EST reply actions
It really does make you vomit ...
looking through the DL years and the top prospect lists.
The funny thing is, in some of them, Goldstein rated about the same number of five-, four-, three- and two-star guys.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Nov 8, 2010 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
That's one of the reasons...
…I’m not as big on Goldstein’s work as I am on that of some other prospect guys.
found this one from 2007
Excellent Prospects
1. Andrew McCutchen, cf
Very Good Prospects
2. Brad Lincoln, rhp
3. Brent Lillibridge, ss
Good Prospects
4. Neil Walker, c
Average Prospects
5. Todd Redmond, rhp
6. Brian Bixler, ss
7. Josh Sharpless, rhp
8. Mike Felix, lhp
9. John Van Benschoten, rhp
10. Justin Vaclavik, rhp
i suppose lillibridge is the only real quibble i have here, assuming he had to include the rest just to make it to 10. things get real ugly after walker.
BPro REALLY liked Lillibridge, back in the day.
Check their coverage of the Gonzalez-LaRoche trade some time.
I just hope in 5 yrs were not looking at the 2010 prospect list and wanting to vomit.
(although there are a lot of legitimate picks that no one can fault the Pirates for choosing)
by oldfrothingslosh on Nov 8, 2010 6:22 PM EST reply actions
Allie a 5 star?
I am surprised that he is ranked that high; BP must put a big emphasis on a player’s ceiling, no matter how likely it is that the player reach his potential. They describe him as a kid who “suddenly started throwing strikes late in the spring.” That doesn’t sound like a 5 star prospect to me.
You're also undervaluing his athleticism.
He carried a second/third round grade as a position player, though it’s been obvious for a while that he’d end up on the mound.
I like Allie, of course
I just think the 4 star description fits him much better. I think he ends up being a great power arm in the bullpen, perhaps becoming Hanrahan’s replacement.
he may end up in the bullpen, yes
but 100mph is 100mph. if you could throw triple digits, you too would be a 5star prospect
by white angus on Nov 10, 2010 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
All depends on how you value a prospect...
if you value ceiling over floor than Allie is a no brainer 5 star prospect. I personally feel that ceiling should be given more importance when evaluating prospects simply because you win with stars. All that said, I fail to see how Justin Wilson should be any lower than #11 given the velocity and movement on his fastball. He walked a lot of people last year but a lot of that came towards the end of the season so fatigue could have been a factor. Anyway, I agree with Goldstein’s ranking of the top 3 but I hate that Wilson’s not in the top 20. I’m generally not a big fan of Goldstein.
given the velocity and movement on his fastball
My guess is that Goldstein isn’t crediting him with as much velocity and movement as you are (whether that’s right or wrong). Opinions seem to differ greatly as to the quality of his stuff.
Fair enough...
I remember reading reports of him touching 94 mph late in the year with terrific movement (though he’s always had the movement IIRC).
I wish I could have watched Wilson at Altoona
Saw him in Flor…nothing stood out at the time but I wasn’t really following him…
There’s no denying his numbers though.
For most part, I watched Owens,Morris, and Loche pitch in Altoona…my opinions on the 3 differ from most…I feel Owens is the best of the 3, he’s a true pitcher. I was somewhat disappointed watching Morris, I expected more I guess after that A ball streak…I will say his fastball was 89-90 when I watched, maybe he hit 94 a game or so but it wasn’t at any of the games I saw…
Dan
Is that with or without the stadium gun between 2 to 3 mph slow?
Bernie, not sure if it's slow
Owens was 89-92 in his games, Loche was 89-90 in his games.
Owens is so smooth that his pitch doesn’t look as “fast”…but he threw just as hard as Morris when I saw them pitch.
Loche isn’t as smooth as Owens but is more polished than Morris too.
I was excited the first time I was to see Morris pitch, he was disappointing but I prob had my expectations a little too high. I’m still hoping he becomes the productive MLB pitcher that many expect.
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