Pirates Should Sign Andrew McCutchen To Long-Term Deal
by Charlie Wilmoth on Dec 1, 2010 4:38 AM EST
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PrintFollowing up on what Tim at Pirates Prospects and Pghfan987 here at Bucs Dugout have recently said, allow me to throw my weight behind the idea of signing Andrew McCutchen to a long-term deal. The Pirates evidently have money to spend this offseason, and they've already been linked to big-name free agents like Jorge De La Rosa (who just re-signed with the Rockies) and Adrian Beltre. If they really can sign a player like Beltre for a reasonable price, then that's great, but it's more likely that big-ticket players will require the Bucs to overpay substantially, since the Bucs have no realistic chance of competing next year.
The next rung of free agents - and Dejan Kovacevic has said this is where the Pirates' real range likely lies - is injured pitchers like Justin Duchscherer, mediocrities like Scott Olsen, and aging vets like Lance Berkman. There wouldn't be anything inherently wrong with signing any of these guys, but none of them are likely to change the Pirates' fortunes in either the short or long terms. (Pitcher Brandon Webb, who has also been linked to the Pirates, might be an exception, but only if he's healthy, and he would only be around for a year.)
There is something the Pirates can do this offseason to change their long-term fortunes, and that's signing Andrew McCutchen to a long-term deal. Of all the players currently in the big leagues, he can Pedro Alvarez are the most valuable. McCutchen is a much better candidate than Alvarez for a long-term contract because of McCutchen is a much better athlete with a well-rounded skillset that includes the ability to play defense (even if his talent hasn't yet translated into good statistical results) and good strike zone judgment. McCutchen is the very archetype of the sort of player who will age gracefully. He could well turn out to be a superstar, and even if he doesn't, the chances that he remains a good, productive ballplayer for the next several seasons are very high.
I don't know where the Pirates and McCutchen might be in discussing an extension. (I feel like someone reported on this a week or so ago, but I can't find the article. If anyone remembers, could you leave it in the comments?) And I know there will be obstacles, like the fact that McCutchen might be a Super Two next year. But in general, deals for star players who are well away from free agency are very good for both parties. The player gets set up for life, and the team generally gets to keep the player longer, or at a discount compared to what he would have gotten in arbitration, or both.
If there's money thrown around this year, the best way to spend it might well be on McCutchen. The Pirates could hopefully guarantee his services for and extra year or two, while also acquiring the cost certainty of knowing exactly how much they'll have to pay him a few years from now, when they could well be competitive and every dollar will have to be spent well. As an incentive for McCutchen, the Pirates could give him a few million dollars up front, which would keep him warm in those cold winter nights when he wonders whether the $400,000 a year he now gets plus the $1.9 million bonus he received out of high school are enough. (I'm kidding, of course, but the financial incentive of being set for life is important to a lot of ballplayers, and paying him now would have the additional benefit of mitigating what the Pirates would have to pay him later - when, again, they might be competitive.) Now is the time to sign him - whether he has one year or two left before he hits arbitration, he has performed at a high level for two straight years, long enough to show that he's worth the investment. Signing him won't get any easier for the Pirates if they continue to wait.
Finally - and I know the front office doesn't care about this, and I applaud them for that, but this is a nice fringe benefit - the fans would love this. The Rockies just signed Troy Tulowitzki to what could well turn out to be one of the worst contracts in the history of baseball, and Rockies fans were thrilled about it, because it meant the Rockies had committed to their most popular player.
I'm not opposed to the Pirates spending money in the free agent market. But they shouldn't force it. That's one point. The other point, and it might follow from the first one or it might not, is that if they want to make a splash this offseason, signing McCutchen is a perfectly smart way to do that.
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I'm for it
I wasn’t that interested most of the FAs available this year; this would be a cool signing.
Paul.
"I choose to gamble with my life
Twice the risk, four times the prize
Nothing knocks me over"
by lighthouse913 on Dec 1, 2010 5:05 AM EST via mobile reply actions
How much?
What would be a good contract for Andrew in both years and amount of cash? Any ideas or comparisons?
Hmmm...
Pros:
1. It would engender goodwill with the casual fanbase, who would see it as the first step toward keeping young talent in Pittsburgh and not being just a farm team for the major markets. This could translate into an uptick in merchandise sales, because people might be willing to drop some money on a Cutch jersey knowing he will probably be around for a while.
2. Cutch is likely to age well, so it is not as risky as a long-term deal, at this point, for Pedro Alvarez would be.
3. It would raise payroll, for those in the media and Yinzerdom who are ultra-concerned about that area, thus buying the Pirates some relief from the incessant “cheapskate” commentary.
4. He’s African-American, and in a city with a not-insubstantial like population, having Cutch as the face of the franchise may help to energize new interest in a team that is no longer just a collection of white and Hispanic guys.
Cons:
1. It does nothing to address the shortfall in MLB-level talent at the current time. The team, if it does nothing else, is still going to suck in 2011 and possibly 2012 unless $$ are spent to shore up areas of deficiency.
2. All of the concerns about Tulowitzki’s deal become our concerns. One injury, one freak accident, good-bye financial flexibility, hello albatross around our necks.
That said, if they are going to do it, it has to be done all out. None of this setting his salary through his arbitration years, maybe pushing into his first FA season. Offer him 8 or 9 years and show that they’re serious about retaining the precious prospects that their future hinges on because they have historically been, and until shown otherwise will continue to be painted as, reticent to spend in the FA market to improve the team through outside means
you never sign a player for 8 or 9 seasons
which is the biggest reason why the Tulo deal may backfire. cutch gets hurt and not only is he not playing, his trade value goes way down.
Well...
I believe the Rays signed Evan Longoria to a contract that long, including team options, and the Yankees obviously signed A-Rod to a contract that long.
Any guaranteed contract has inherent risk, so why do anything longer than a one-, or at most, two-year deal? Because it provides cost certainty, it gives a team’s fanbase something to be sure about (barring trade) and it may work out in the long run.
Signing Cutch through his arbitration years does nothing but provide cost certainty, because they would retain his control anyway; it does nothing to address his potentially leaving after six years. If this FO is concerned in the least at engendering some goodwill with a frustrated and fed-up fanbase, they can’t make a move like this, because it is hollow and ultimately does nothing to resolve the issue of retaining internally-developed talent past the point of FA.
I don’t think A-Roid is a comparison you would want to point to. His first long term deal with Texas basically bankrupted Tom Hicks and led directly to the team’s recent sale. The renegotiated deal with the Yankees is a horrific contract. He’s still got seven years left and is owed $174M plus potential incentives that could add tens of millions more, for a guy who’s already 35 and starting to break down.
His first long term deal with Texas basically bankrupted Tom Hicks
Not really, no. Tom Hicks’s decision to massively leverage current businesses in order to buy additional businesses bankrupted Tom Hicks. He didn’t keep himself liquid enough to keep covering his loans in the event of a market downturn, and no market keeps going straight up forever. Like a guy who buys stocks on margin, and then can’t make the cash calls.
A problem created ...
by Hicks bidding against himself.
A problem created by Hicks bidding against himself.
Again, not really. There were other buyers interested in Liverpool – it was the structure of Hicks’s bid that was the problem. If he’d accepted a smaller ownership share and brought in more investors than just Gillett, rather than floating the project on the back of huge loans which were subsequently transferred to the club, he would have been able to weather the downturn. But because he believed in leveraging himself up to his eyeballs (going back to his days as a hedge fund guy), he didn’t.
I'm talking about the A-Rod contract
It’s been a while since I looked at news conference.
But reports at the time said no other team was willing to go over $200 million for A-Rod.
And Hicks kept bidding and bidding and bidding.
Sure, maybe he overpaid for A-Rod by 20 or 30 mil.
But that particular overpayment didn’t bankrupt him. It was basically irrelevant in any analysis of how and why Hicks got himself into financial trouble.
Since McCutchen would age well and is a great athlete, he would hopefully likely be less prone to being injured, which is why a longer contract would make sense.
If he had a freak injury though, it would suck to have given him a long contract, but at that point I think we would be able to claim the franchise is cursed.
Freak injuries...
…are just that; they’re completely unexpected and cannot be planned for.
I understand that people are afraid of long-term contracts because of the risk, but if they’re so risk-averse, then why even get out of bed in the morning? They could drown in the shower, choke on their breakfast, wreck their car, get hit by a bus crossing the street, incur a life-threatening papercut at work, have a heart attack at the gym, choke on their lunch, choke on their dinner, choke on their own spit, choke on someone else’s spit or suffer any of a nearly-infinite number of other maladies and misfortunes, and even if they stayed in bed, an engine could fall off of a plane and crash through their roof, their house could catch on fire, they could be bitten by bedbugs or their spouse could shoot them for being a lazy, risk-averse lump.
Point is, we can worry all we want about what negative things might happen if the Pirates sign Cutch to a long-term deal and not a single ounce of that worry has any hope of stopping any of the negative things from happening, so maybe we should just have some optimism that not everything will go to Hell in a handbasket and Cutch will continue to be a healthy, productive player worthy of a long-term deal.
Longoria’s base was 6 six years, with three team options on top of that. So technically, yes, his deal was six, but at the ridiculously low cost of the contract, he’d almost have to be Chris Stynes to not have the Rays pick up the options.
They were both first-round draft picks and both highly touted; Longoria has turned out to be an absolute stud while Cutch is still developing at the MLB level, but at the time the Rays gave Longoria the contract, to say he was a “much better player” is a bit of a stretch.
Maybe 8 or 9 years is a stretch, granted, but only going four, maybe five? The Pirates control him for four years anyway, so they’re not doing anything other than setting his salary for those years and avoiding arbitration, which is what a team should try to do anyway with all of its young promising players. It does nothing to indicate a willingness to spend, to improve the team or retain talent past that point where the talent could leave of its own free will.
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!
Why did you have to bring up Chris Stynes?!? Ruined my day, you did…
It’s doesn’t really say much but it does talk about a McCutchen extension a little.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/huntington-on-hurdle-doumit-mccutchen.html
I would be impressed.
Unlike those guys that the Pirates had in 2008, McCutchen is still a relatively young player with a lot of years left ahead of him. If they sign him through the 2020 season, he would still only be 32 when that contract ends. The Pirates would probably get the best years from McCutchen and likely at a discount.
Charlie
The Tulo deal is extravaggant, and it’s a mega(bad)-deal,
BUT… I’m fairly confident the Ryan Howard deal will look much, much worse than the Tulo deal when all is said and done..
Its not a mega-bad deal. It would be if he was a bad-bodied first baseman. I think Bucs Dugout would criticize any significant contract, no matter what it was. Meanwhile, just for a comparison, we put 50 mill towards snell, Doumit, Maholm, McLouth not to long ago.
by Adam Reynolds on Dec 1, 2010 9:12 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I disagree..
It’s not as bad as the Howard deal (I’m sure you agree), it’s just terrible because of the complete lack of necessity for it.
Tulo, for as great and popular as he is, is injury prone. This isn’t an Ironman Cal Ripken guarantee 162 games played a year.
Will Tulo be worth anything near $20 million in 2018, 2019, $14 million in 2020?
I don’t think this will turn out to be a historically bad contract, just a huge risk with four years reamining before the extension even kicks in!
Tulowitzki has a good chance of out-pacing the value of the deal. That’s arguably more likely than a career-altering injury. Howard, on the other hand, has no shot at living up to his new contract.
by Adam Reynolds on Dec 1, 2010 9:55 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
A few other points I brought up in the comments of my fanpost
1) Cutch’s agent is Steve Hammond, not Scott Boras.
2) The team has Alvarez, Walker, and Tabata under control through 2016. The team has Cutch under control through 2015. Extending Cutch for another season extends the Pirates’ window where they hope to compete for a championship by at least one season.
I’ve been advocating for something like this for awhile… at least the part where the pirates buy down expenses in the later years of a deal using present-day dollars… in any case, it’s a better way to spend money than this…
by Captain Easychord on Dec 1, 2010 10:04 AM EST reply actions
What this guy is asking
he apparently doesn’t feel he’s “set for life.” Who was the basketball player, “I’ve got hungry mouths to feed”? Guy who choked P.J. Carlisimo. Name escapes me right now …
So that “set for life” thing: I do not think it means to the athletes what you think it means. What it means to the athletes is, “I’ll virtually always take the $125 million offer over the $123 million offer” because it’s really mostly a dick-swinging contest. I mean, if you asked me would I rather have $2 million over $1 million, I’d say, “Hell yeah,” but if it mean moving across the country, then I’m not so sure. But how can $1 million make much difference to a guy making $100 million if there isn’t a bigger issue than the number?
Latrell Sprewell
That gem of a human would be Latrell Sprewell
You're right about this, but
I think that first contracts are different. First of all, in practical terms, FAs are looking at getting paid wherever they go – may as well get paid the max. But a guy who hasn’t even reached arbitration is really not getting paid that much – if they want to live any kind of ML lifestyle, $400k (maybe $300k takehome) doesn’t get them very far. So the bump from a contract is vast in absolute terms, and the alternative is… not getting paid (much). For Cutch to refuse this contract because it fails to max out his lifetime earnings, he’s trading a 10X increase in salary right now for a presumptive 10% increase in 5 years.
Furthermore, the ego thing doesn’t come into play nearly as much because the competition thing is much less clear. If they offer Cutch 6/$75 right now, who does he compare that against to feel dissatisfied? No other CFs with just 250 games are getting paid like that.
As for “set for life,” for a kid like Cutch, there’s a security element. When you’re a 30-y.o. first-time FA, you’re already “set” by any normal standard – if you’re any good, you’ve earned $10M+. But Cutch has earned just over $2M, spread over 6 years since signing. He gets hurt tomorrow, he’s bagging groceries. He signs a 6/$75, he literally doesn’t have to worry about himself or his family every needing to work again. Greed and competition are luxuries that a 24-y.o. doesn’t have full access to.
To be clear
In the negotiations, he’ll work for every dime he can get – he’s not just going to say, “Thank you, sir” for whatever they offer. But his calculus is different from an FA who needs, for various non-economic reasons, to max out that payday.
Excellent points.
Still, when Cutch has his MVP season in 2012, he won’t be happy with the rest of his deal. But we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.
Generally, I’d favor locking him up for a long time, but then I remember how that worked out when Cleveland tried it 8-10 years ago.
Bucdaddy, you just don't understand....
Latrell had yachts, mansions and sports cars to buy and take care of. I mean, sure to us people who have to feed our families on two incomes while doing real work and not having yachts or sports cars and living in a modest house/apartment, $10,000,000 might seem like a lot of money. But to Latrell, it’s just not enough to feed his family. Food is a lot more expensive when you make $10,000,000.
Does that make any sense?
by IAPiratesFan on Dec 1, 2010 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
Isn't there some corrollary to Murphy's Law:
“Expenses expand to fit the money available.”
Or something like that.
I suppose so.
If you want to live like that. I live well below my means.
by IAPiratesFan on Dec 1, 2010 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
I wrote something similar on my blog
Back in September I said the Pirates should at least make an offer to Jeter
Why not?
Offer him more than the Yankees!
He probably won’t take it, so they won’t ACTUALLY have to spend the money, but at least show Pirate fans that they are trying to do something
by SullyBaseball on Dec 1, 2010 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
I think it'd be funny....
If he did take it and told the Yankees to f*** off.
by IAPiratesFan on Dec 1, 2010 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
Wouldn't be funny at all...
The Pirates would be financially crippled for the next two decades!
ah...
just like going to a house auction to drive up the price.
by BlindSquirrel on Dec 1, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions
2 questions....
I actually would be happy either way (long-term extension this year or waiting another year) with Cutch. But it leads me to 2 questions:
1. Assuming McCutchen is interested in a long-term deal, how many years & $ do you think is a fair amount?
2. Do you see any harm in waiting another year?
I don’t really have an opinion on #1, but on #2, I figure there is very little harm in waiting another year on McCutchen. It’s kind of the same argument that I had about the Tulo deal, how much better can he really get? And is he going to get so substantially better that it’s going to break the bank? And if it costs you a few extra million dollars in the long run, what’s the difference? I mean, McCutchen’s major league lines of the last 2 seasons had the exact same avg (.286) and OBP (.365). Plus only a small deviation in slugging & OPS. My point being, unless McCutchen goes on a Jose Bautista-like binge, I can’t imagine any of his offensive numbers going so high, that waiting one year is going to make a difference. If his average goes from .286 to, say .296, is that really going to cost millions more??
Really, the only flaw I see in McCutchen’s game is his rainbow throws from the outfield, and if he starts throwing frozen ropes, it’s not like his value is going to increase tens of millions of dollars.
But...all that being said....
if the Pirates think now is the right time to lock up McCutchen, I wouldn’t really argue it. In fact, if the only reason they wanted to do it was to send a message to the other players (both on the team and to others in the league that might think about playing in Pittsburgh) that they are planning to retain this core of players.
I know some talk about the PR with the fan base, but I think the PR/goodwill it shows the players in MLB is drastically more important.
To answer #2
The simple answer if the longer we wait to sign him to an extension, the more expensive it becomes to sign him through his free agency years. By assuming more risk by offering him an extension now (along with a nice signing bonus), the Bucs can’t lower the price for his free agency years. The closer Cutch gets to free agency, the more inclined he will be to wait to make his big payday on the open market. Plus, Cutch COULD get much better. If he has a breakout season in 2011 (which Sports Illustrated thinks is possible), then he becomes even more expensive, perhaps out of the Pirates’ price range.
"Harm" is a bit strong
But I certainly think it would cost them $$.
First of all, I think Cutch has a solid 10 offensive runs of improvement in him. It may not all come out this year, but I expect to see it soon – his power should develop some, his OBP can improve, and his baserunning can get more consistent. If he does it in a single leap in ’11, then his value, in some sense, jumps $4M/year. Over a 6 year contract? Zowie.
But more important than the offense (because I think some degree of improvement is built into such a contract) is the defense. As long as he’s statistically bad – not just underperforming his potential, but bad – it’s really hard to claim that he’ll turn into the plus defender that he appears to be to the naked eye. But if he gets his defense together in ‘11, and turns into a neutral defender with room for improvement… you’re looking at a 5+ WAR guy who’s just finished his age 24 season.
Point being, if they sign him now, his baseline is 3.3, with a general presumption that he’s going to get to 5 WAR someday, with maybe a great year in there somewhere. Expected wins over 6 years something like 30. But if he reaches 5 wins in ‘11, then his expected wins over 6 years leaps to something more like 35 or even 40 – after all, if he’s worth 5 wins at 24, why wouldn’t he be worth 6 or 7 at 27?
So I think the worst case is that waiting til next year could cost them tens of millions – the difference between a 6/$90 and a 6/$105 contract, or even more.
[by “expected wins” I’m talking strictly back-of-envelope projections, not any sort of complicated expectations formula with discounts for future seasons or whatever]
Commitment to players
The Pirates will no more committed to retaining their youth if they sign him to a long term deal. It will simply increase his trade value.
So what's a good deal?
Several have asked. Here’s my poorly considered guess.
What’s he due?
Let’s set aside Super 2, because it screws us up and makes my head hurt. Let’s just assume 2 more years at league minimum, then 3 arb years. Per Charlie’s link and Matt Bandi, Cutch’s first arb award should be ~25% of his WAR “value”. Assuming he’s a 5 WAR guy by ‘12 (and ignoring inflation), we’re looking at ~$5M. If he plateaus around 5, he probably gets $5M raises each year, which gives us:
‘11 $0.4M
’12 $0.4M
’13: $5M
’14: $10M
’15: $15M
So that’s $31M expected value through his years under team control. If he puts up 5 WAR every year from ’12 on, his first FA contract would presumably be on the order of $20M, so each contract year beyond ’15 is another $20 on that $31.
Point being, the Pirates would be foolish to sign him for more than 6/$50, because that’s what they’d pay anyway – you don’t guarantee all that money without getting value (granting that it’s unlikely they’re getting him in ’16 for $20M – it would have to be part of a larger deal)
So what should we pay?
If 6/$50 is the ceiling, then what’s the floor? One of the benefits of doing the deal now is that you can give Cutch raises that are small in absolute value but represent huge raises for not just one, but two years. $3M in ‘11 for a 3.3 WAR player is a total bargain, yet it’s a 7.5X raise. Throw in the benefits of a bonus in a year where our payroll is low, and we have a great opportunity to make the numbers work in our favor while making Andrew happy (and rich). How about:
‘11 $2.5M + $5M signing bonus
’12 $3.5M
’13 $5M
’14 $7.5M
’15 $10M
’16 $12.5M
That’s 6/$46, which means that Cutch is only giving up $5M relative to expected earnings while the Pirates get to have a 5 WAR player on their higher payroll teams (‘14-’16) for an average of $10M/year.
It would be nice to pay less (certainly the opening offer should be more like 6/$36 or something), but I think that a number in that ballpark works for everybody. I’d love to see some team options at the end (or, for that matter, a 7/$60 deal), but that’s details.
Thoughts?
For what it’s worth, I tried to answer this question back in March. This was a bit after Justin Upton signed his extension, so I used that contract as a comparison. The numbers are a little outdated, as this was before we knew what McCutchen/Upton would do in 2010 and it doesn’t consider potential Super Two status for Cutch. But there are graphs and tables and junk, so that’s something.
I came up with a 6 year, $30 million deal, plus two team option years at $17 million each. I only used a free agent value of $4m/win, which is probably a bit low moving forward.
I'm not sure that works
[granting that the passing of the 2010 season changes a lot]
Your front end raises are modest, and he’s also underpaid relative to (likely) arb value all 3 arb years. I’m not sure that a raise from $400k to $2M, with no bonus, for ’11 is worth giving up ~$10M during his arbitration years.
Of course, the big difference between our scenarios is that I’m shooting for guaranteeing team control for one year (and setting aside options for now). I certainly think it’s worth paying more up front if it makes the player amenable to a guaranteed, below market, additional year PLUS a (presumptively) below market team option or two.
All that said, the Upton contract does suggest a significant discount is available for the arb years – except that I think that, in most players’ eyes, that contract looks like Upton left a lot of cash on the table. He figures to give his team full value for his entire contract no later than the end of ‘12. Granted, that includes pre-arb years when teams are supposed to be getting superb value for all but the worst players, but still: he’s practically giving away his final season or two under the contract. The upside for him, as you say, is that he still gets a huge, age-27 payday. I think Cutch will age very nicely, but Upton’s ‘16 contract will dwarf what Cutch could get in ’18. Upton’s payday could be A-Rod money (and would likely be 6/$120 or more), while Cutch has to be thinking in terms of 3/$55, with smaller contracts to follow. Andrew, if he’s giving up FA years, needs this contract to count.
i think it depends a lot upon what carl crawford gets
if i were him, i’d let crawford set the market and then ask for a bit less.
I don’t think Crawford really has much to do with McCutchen at this point. Crawford is a free agent, whereas McCutchen will be under team control for five more years.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Dec 1, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
How about
A 6yr deal that kicks in after the 2011 season. This way he is under contract for 2016 and 2017. Im not sure how the pay structure would work because Im not sure how much the Pirates have to play with now and in 6yrs from now. Probably something along the lines of something fairly cheap the first 2-3yrs with an steady increase over the entire length of the contract
didn't think of this before, but
I like it. He’s the best player on the team, and at least today the most valuable given his offensive 5-tool skills. He’s signed for 4 more years, so an extension of abot 3 years is probably a good limit. He’s worth at least 5-10 mil per on any other team, so why not offer him 6-7yrs at 45 mil.
A question I thought was this:
If he’s signed long-term will he finally become the face of the Pirates, and a lock as the Pirates rep at the Allstar game?
I think it would give a positive spin to the Pirates. Signing the best player longterm sounds like a no brainer. If they’re not going to be able to use the extra dough they have now on viable FA’s why not reinvest it in the existing stars. Plus once they do get competitive, it’ll be easier to lure higher profile FA’s by showing a comittment to winning, and may earn respect among the other players (Tabata, Alvarez) showing them that if they produce the team will reward them. I think Tabata is closest to being the next one they should sign, with Walker and Alvarez after that. But a monster year from Alvarez (showing marked improvement in his plate dicipline) may shift eyes to him next instead.
by Pensburgh Pirates on Dec 1, 2010 11:20 AM EST reply actions
A monster year from Alvarez
Will drive him out of the Pirates’ price range for contract extensions, especially since Scott Boras is his agent.
Regardless
We already have Alvarez under control all the years we want him. I wouldn’t complain about a deal that gave us one more year of control, but beyond that, DO NOT WANT. Bulky guy, no-glove turning 30? I may feel differently in a few years*, but my gut says he’ll be rapidly declining in value by age 32, and that we’d be overpaying relative to value. I’d rather have Cutch at 35 than Pedro at 31.
- mostly if he really starts to mash; if he’s a regular 45 HR guy, then he can withstand a bit of early 30s decline without becoming worthless. But I’m guessing he’s more of a 35-40 guy, with maybe one 48 HR season in him, in which case 2 years of decline turns him into Adam LaRoche without the glove or range. And Boras would have us pay $20M+ for that.
Maybe
I wouldn’t mind having Pedro through the years 30, 31, 32 and 33.
I’d really start to worry at that point.
But I think he’ll be a good hitter for a while. The Bucs need to play him at a position he can actually handle, though.
I should be clear
At a good value, I’d be happy to have pre-33 Pedro – I’m sure he’ll me reasonably productive. But I think he’ll be getting paid like a 29-y.o. when he’s 32, and he won’t be worth it. Boras is part of this equation, but not even all of it. I’d be very surprised if we could get PA under contract for ‘17-’20 for less than $20M per, and I bet he won’t be worth it (or would be barely worth it, which is a bad deal for the Pirates).
Look at Howard’s contract – there’s a guy who will obviously age much, much worse than Pedro, yet he was paid like a 28-y.o. Barry Bonds. That’s the kind of money PA will be expecting, and has a decent chance of getting. No reason to get involved with that mess.
Pedro's free agency years
I am thrilled to have Pedro during his professional youth at such a bargain. But isn’t how Pedro ages as much up to his work ethic as it is about his genetics? Do we think he is the kind of player who will get too out of shape by age 30 or 32, even for a first baseman?
I mentioned a long-term extension (I specifically said $10-year, $100 million) last summer to a close friend of an ex-owner of the Pirates and he said McCutchen wasn’t interested. That wasn’t what I wanted to hear, but remember that was from a second-hand source and might not be true.
He's made sounds in both directions
Who knows what he really thinks – and who knows what he’d really do if faced with a big enough deal – but I recall that about a year ago he made a comment that seemed very negative about a buyout/extension contract, but then (in the spring maybe? Possibly after the Upton deal) made a much more positive comment.
Every ballplayer has a price, but if he’s committed to getting every possible dime, then there’s deal to be made, because the reason to do the deal is to save money (while taking on some risk).
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