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Ronny Cedeno Should Start At Shortstop Next Year

PITTSBURGH - AUGUST 25:  Ronny Cedeno #13 of the Pittsburgh Pirates throws to first base during the game against the St Louis Cardinals on August 25 2010 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

It's really a shame that the Orioles were able to get to J.J. Hardy before the Pirates did, because he's so much better than any of the other available shortstop candidates. And the price the Orioles paid - minor league relievers Jim Hoey and Steve Jacobson was so small that I wonder whether Neal Huntington thought he could top it. The Twins' evaluations of players are sometimes rather unusual, so it's possible they value Hoey and/or Jacobson much more highly than other teams do.

Anyway, now that Hardy is off the board, what next? Here's the problem: Ronny Cedeno isn't actually that bad. A lot of the names that are being tossed around right now (Brendan Ryan, who went to the Mariners; Jack Wilson; Jason Bartlett and so on) aren't substantial improvements over Cedeno. Ryan would have provided help on defense, but no offense at all - defense is important, but it's not the only thing, and if it is, it's almost as if the Pirates might as well just put Pedro Ciriaco out there. Wilson, meanwhile, is now simply broken down and old.

Bartlett would have been a great idea three years ago, but now, not so much. His UZR has been well below average in each of the last two seasons, and his great hitting in 2009 looks like a giant fluke - he really isn't much better with the stick than Cedeno is. And he might not even be available - it's unclear whether he's going to end up traded to the Padres.

You can check out the rest of the free agent position players. It isn't an inspiring bunch. There's Orlando Cabrera, who is now 36 and hasn't posted an OPS above .705 since 2007. There's Edgar Renteria, who's 35 and could potentially be average. And that's about it.

I'd still be interested in the idea of upgrading the infield defense by acquiring Orlando Hudson and moving Neil Walker to third and Pedro Alvarez to first, but all indications are that the Pirates aren't thinking about doing that. Also, I agree there's a good argument to be made for leaving Walker and Alvarez in their current positions for a year to give Walker time to see whether he can learn to play second a little better, since he's much more valuable as a decent defensive second baseman than as a good defensive third baseman.

At this point, then, unless Neal Huntington gets really creative on the trade market, I think the Pirates will be stuck with Cedeno as their shortstop next year. And while that's not what I wanted, it's much better than grabbing a Wilson or a Cabrera in an attempt to fix the problem by making it worse. At the very least, the Pirates now have Josh Rodriguez who, unlike Ciriaco or the departed Argenis Diaz, could credibly push Cedeno for playing time if Cedeno doesn't improve. As Tim Marchman points out, now isn't a great time to be hunting around for shortstops. It isn't ideal, but if the Pirates can finish the 2011 season with some idea of whether Cedeno or Rodriguez can help them for a few years, at least they will not have wasted that time with one of the mediocre veterans available.

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my feelings, almost exactly

once we missed on Hardy, who I’d trade something of value to get (like a Moreno), I didnt much care about the rest. Ryan would be OK to have, but i wouldnt give up much for him, and J-Rod works fine for me.

by BurgherKing on Dec 13, 2010 6:30 PM EST reply actions  

Yup.

Nail + head ’n’at.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Dec 13, 2010 7:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Thank you, Charlie

Some of the posts around here lately seem to suggest the Pirates would be better off playing with 8 players next year. I’m not a big Cedeno fan myself, but you can really only do so much. Once Hardy was gone, I didn’t think there were many more viable options. Let Cedeno and Rodriguez compete and see what happens. It’s not like 2011 is going to be a completely successful year, anyway.

And, if you don’t agree with me, we could be the Yankees…who had to pay out the nose as a thank you to an aging SS.

Pirates, Vikings, Hokies. I'm used to heartbreak. At least I have the Penguins....

"When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on earth."
-The Great One

by blackjackfishtaco on Dec 13, 2010 6:41 PM EST reply actions  

Cedeno

It was also reported today that Cedeno was signed for $1.85 million plus an option year, so we also have the ability to keep him for 2012 if he is worth it. I think Cedeno has a chance to surprise. I said this last year as well (and I admit I was wrong), but inconsistant play can become consistant, and if that happens he wouldn’t be a problem any longer.

I don’t see all the Pirate games, but the ones I saw must have been Cedeno’s good ones. He looked above average at SS and he delivered key hits with gap power. His defense really took a hit late in the season with about 7 errors in 7days. Wonder what his defensive numbers would have looked like without that streak?

I think Cedeno was the bright spot of our infield defense last season. LaRoche struggled at 3rd followed by Alvarez struggling at 3rd. Iwamura was awful at 2nd, then Walker was thrown into the fire with little experience. And Clement and Jones basically stunk at 1B. Bowker looked like a gold glover after watching those two.

by ballparkfranks on Dec 13, 2010 6:48 PM EST reply actions  

I’m hoping Josh Rodriguez overtakes him. Unlikely, yes, but J-Rod may have a better bat than Cedeno.

by Suffering Buc on Dec 13, 2010 6:49 PM EST reply actions  

Josh Rodriguez

I am so happy that we aren’t going with a Chris Gomez, or a Ramon Vazquez as our backup SS. Guys like Josh Rodriguez and Andy Marte could fill those bench spots and actually have some upside.

by ballparkfranks on Dec 13, 2010 6:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I pushed for Ryan as an option because of his defense (not that he would replace Cedeno but that they could compete for the job), but I actually like Cedeno’s upside and don’t consider us stuck with him. And Rodriguez is at least someone you might dream on—his stats this past year were comparable to Uggla’s stats the year he was drafted in the Rule 5 draft (note I said dream on).

by TNbucs on Dec 13, 2010 7:02 PM EST reply actions  

Hardy as a FA

I also wanted the Pirates to trade for Hardy this offseason and still think the Orioles gave nothing in return for him (anyone knows who the Twins wanted from the Pirates?).
Since Hardy is out of the picture I think the team should give Cedeno a second shot in 2011. If he doesn´t work they can get Hardy as a free agent next year and keep Josh Rodriguez as backup.

by Barletta on Dec 13, 2010 7:36 PM EST reply actions  

Cedeno is actually *that* bad

I continue to be surprised at how enormously most of the online Pirate fanbase overrates Cedeno. He is below average on defense (somewhere between -2 and -6) according to every defensive metric, and he is a terrible, terrible hitter. I guess people think that because he was better than Bartlett and Ryan last year he’s better than them full stop, but basing evaluations on one year of data is really bad practice. Cedeno is -25 runs per 600 PA over his entire career. If you limit the sample to the last three years, he’s -19 or so. That is replacement level, folks. Recent whipping boys Bartlett and Ryan are both much better, Bartlett almost absurdly so. I’m not sure why people continue to believe the opposite of the truth on this matter. What’s even weirder is that people continue to say things like “[Bartlett] really isn’t much better with the stick than Cedeno is” without citing any actual evidence, all of which actual evidence would soundly and swiftly disprove the assertion.

I’m also kind of sick of hearing about the last couple years of UZR as if two years of that metric is the be-all, end-all of defensive evaluations. Has anyone bothered to check the respective +/- figures for Bartlett and Cedeno? Bartlett was 17 runs better than Cedeno last year (57 runs better for their full careers) according to that metric. Is +/- really that much worse than UZR that we’d take the latter as gospel and disregard the former?

Whatever. The Pirates are going to be bad in 2011 whether they have a decent SS or not. I’m not particularly sore that they’ve missed out on any of the recently available options, I just wish people would attempt something like objectivity and reason when discussing the situation.

by epoc on Dec 13, 2010 7:51 PM EST reply actions  

Cedeno’s OPS+ last year was 82; Bartlett’s was 88. Bartlett did have that huge season in 2009, but everything else about his track record suggests that last year’s hitting was more the norm. Meanwhile, Cedeno is three years younger. Bartlett has had the better career, but I don’t think it’s a huge stretch, or any sort of evidence of a lack of “objectivity,” to think that right now, Bartlett is not that much better as a hitter.

Also, I buy that Cedeno is a little below average, as UZR says he is. I don’t buy that he is on a level with Yuniesky Betancourt, Derek Jeter, and Hanley Ramirez, as +/- says he is. He’s erratic, but he isn’t a terrible shortstop.

I don’t see the need to attack someone’s (read: my) “objectivity” here. It isn’t like I have any particular fondness for Cedeno. In fact, up to this point I’ve kind of been leading the charge to replace him at shortstop with someone else.

by Charlie Wilmoth on Dec 13, 2010 8:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t buy that he is on a level with Yuniesky Betancourt, Derek Jeter, and Hanley Ramirez, as +/- says he is.

+/- sees Cedeno as really bad only in 2010, very different from his earlier ratings, which were just mediocre. The guy who developed UZR says you need two years of data to draw useful conclusions. I don’t see why +/- would be any different. Pointing to his 2010 +/- rating as proof that he’s horrible is misusing the data at best, cherry-picking at worst. The full range of available data doesn’t support that conclusion.

by WTM on Dec 13, 2010 8:43 PM EST up reply actions  

not that you're accusing me of this

but I didn’t point to Cedeno’s +/- as proof of anything. I noted it (as compared to Bartlett’s +/-) as a counterargument to the implicit contention that Bartlett is a negative defender because the last two years of UZR say so. I also provided the difference in terms of career numbers, so there’s clearly no cherry-picking involved in what I wrote. I noted that Cedeno is between 2 and -6 as a defender, so anyone who read me as claiming that he’s terrible (defensively) is misreading me. For the record, Cedeno’s career +/ is -17. Bartlett’s is +40.

by epoc on Dec 13, 2010 9:00 PM EST up reply actions  

oh also

You need more than two years of UZR to draw useful conclusions. Two years of UZR data for a SS is equal to roughly 2/3 of a season of offensive data. You should not draw conclusions based on 2/3 of a season of offense, and you should not draw conclusions based on two years of UZR. That was the whole point of the second paragraph of my initial post.

by epoc on Dec 13, 2010 9:18 PM EST up reply actions  

You should not draw conclusions ...

the sample is too small. But you can look at trends.

by Bernie6 on Dec 13, 2010 9:24 PM EST up reply actions  

you can look at them

but you shouldn’t draw conclusions from them. If the samples themselves aren’t reliable, the trends they show are not reliable either.

by epoc on Dec 13, 2010 9:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Not drawing conclusions?

Bartlett and Ryan are both much better, Bartlett almost absurdly so.

by Wizard of Woz on Dec 14, 2010 8:44 AM EST up reply actions  

I wasn’t responding to your post, but while we’re on the subject . . . .

You’re pretty much undermining your own argument. Cedeno’s played less than three full seasons at SS in the majors (423 games, 391 starts), so by your reasoning you can’t draw any useful conclusions from the +/- data, unless you’re saying you need less data with +/-, which makes no sense at all to me.

Also, that 57 career runs total isn’t exactly overwhelming when you take into account the fact that it’s spread over 1123 games (1072 starts). (Bartlett—700 games, 681 starts at SS). That’s only somewhere around 14-15 runs over a full season. And, of course, to get to that result you have to ignore UZR, which doesn’t dislike Cedeno as much as +/- and which thinks Bartlett has declined badly the last two years. If you look at all the data, there isn’t much of a case for there being a major difference between the two.

by WTM on Dec 13, 2010 9:32 PM EST up reply actions  

you are confused about my point

I am not arguing that Bartlett is better than Cedeno as a defender, or that Bartlett is good, or that Cedeno is bad. I am arguing that no definitive conclusions are possible based on the current evidence.

by epoc on Dec 13, 2010 9:41 PM EST up reply actions  

I can agree with that.

by WTM on Dec 13, 2010 9:42 PM EST up reply actions  

sorry to attack you, Charlie

I withdraw the accusation of a lack of objectivity. But you are profoundly wrong about the difference in talent between Cedeno and Bartlett/Ryan. Even if you ignore 2009, Bartlett is -5 runs per 600 PA for his career offensively. I already noted Cedeno’s much worse number. You can try this out any way you like, but the only way to come to the conclusion that Cedeno is close to Bartlett’s equal as a hitter is to . . . well, I’m really not sure how you do it, honestly. Cedeno’s 82 OPS+ from last year is way, way better than his career OPS+ of 66. It was a career year for him, by far his best offensive season since his 89 PA cup of coffee in 2005. If you’re going to dismiss Bartlett’s 2009 you should do the same for Cedeno’s 2010.

You don’t have to buy that Cedeno is terrible defensively. I’m not arguing that he is. I’m arguing that two years of UZR data isn’t an adequate basis for a definitive conclusion about a player’s fielding, especially when other metrics drastically disagree. So, for instance, I’m not sure why, objectively, you would “buy” that Bartlett is a poor defender so much that you use it as an implicit support of your argument that Bartlett isn’t an improvement over Cedeno, but you wouldn’t “buy” that Cedeno is terrible. Both propositions have an equal amount of support.

by epoc on Dec 13, 2010 9:16 PM EST up reply actions  

“You can try this out any way you like, but the only way t come to the conclusion that Cedeno is close to Bartlett’s equal a hitter is to . . . well, I’m really not sure how you do it, honestly”

First, you have to toss out Bartlett’s .879 OPS in 2009, and also Ronny’s laughably bad .593 in the same year. Then you have to use OPS, which overvalues slugging, ( the only thing Ronny is good at) instead of wOBA.

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 13, 2010 9:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I disagree that Ronny isn’t a terrible option, or that the other targets aren’t huge improvements, but its hard to argue if either of the following arguments were made:

*The Bucs are higher on D’Arnaud than his numbers (or how he looked in Double-A) would indicate.

*Why spend any money to go from 63 to 66 or 67 wins or whatever. We’ve got no number one pitcher and Garrett Jones at first base; the won/loss record is DOA because of this anyway. Of course if w are defending the sanctity of the team’s wallet, why pay $2 million for one year of a guy just a season removed from a negative 1/2 WAR experience? Why not give someone with 6 years of control the first shot if they’re just as likely to be good or bad?

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 13, 2010 7:51 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Perhaps this will put to rest

the “move Walker & Pedro to 3B & 1B” posts.

Yes, Pedro is going to move to 1B… eventually.

I am sure that if it were happening for 2011, it would have been disclosed that #17 and #18 were in Winter ball or Instructional League or summat, taking grounders or working their “new” positions.

I’m as diappointed as anyone that we didn’t get Hardy, but that’s that. We need to move forward – either using Ronny for one more year, or making a trade later in the winter.

More things CAN, and probably WILL happen in the 65 days between now and when Pitchers and Catchers report.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Dec 13, 2010 8:06 PM EST reply actions  

I hope the posts continue ...

until both are playing positions they can actually play.

We can wish that Pedro is a 3b all we want. He’s not.

We can wish Walker is a 2b all we want. He’s not.

I’m disappointed because we are going to go into next season with a pitch-to-contact pitching staff and below average defenders at every infield position.

by Bernie6 on Dec 13, 2010 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

And that's

okay.

But to continue posting about it ain’t gonna make it so.

And it gets repetitive and boring, IMO.

What is the point of harping on something that ain’t gonna happen this year? Does anyone think NH & Hurdle read BD and take our advice?

I don’t mean you personally, Bernie – I’m talking generalities here…

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Dec 13, 2010 9:31 PM EST up reply actions  

That's what we do here ...

offer our opinions.

No, I think there is zero chance the Pirates will take the advice.

But I guess the reason I (and others) feel strongly about it is that we see no way that they can play the positions competently.

No offense taken. I’ve posted on this way too much.

by Bernie6 on Dec 13, 2010 11:52 PM EST up reply actions  

"We can wish Walker is a 2b all we want. He’s not."

after one half season? you can make this call; no hope for him at all? it sounds like youre jumping the gun on this one

by white angus on Dec 13, 2010 9:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Angus

I played the position at a decent level (not Dan’s level).

I just don’t see the skills necessary to play 2b well.

Sorry. That’s my opinion. I never claim to be a scout. But I think it’s a myth to think his time with Maz is going to make him into a solid defender.

I don’t see the athletic skills you need for that position.

I think he’s much better suited to 3b or RF.

by Bernie6 on Dec 13, 2010 11:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Cedeno is

just as good an option as any of the older retreads out there for a team in our stage of development. 2011 is an important season as far as seeing where the new guys from last year are and who from AA may step up early.

by CentralPaBucFan on Dec 13, 2010 8:06 PM EST reply actions  

Cedeno is a Cubs and Mariners retread. He was kicked from those outlets for not producing. Not exactly fresh-faced at age 28.

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 13, 2010 8:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Didn't you know?

When the Pirates acquire a guy, that means the other team gave up on him. When another team acquires a guy, that means he has tremendous value.

by WTM on Dec 13, 2010 9:44 PM EST up reply actions  

If cedeno hit the market tomorrow, he would not start on 29 major-league teams.

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 13, 2010 10:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

You are saying that Izturis would start over Cedeno?

by MarkInDallas on Dec 13, 2010 10:15 PM EST up reply actions  

They just got Hardy, didn’t they?

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 13, 2010 10:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I guess they are keeping Izturis to back up Hardy. Fact remains, Cedeno was 20th most valuable SS in 2010. That’s not someone you build a team around, it’s not a solution for the future. But it’s not worst in MLB.

I’m no Cedeno fan. Who is? But I just don’t see him as certainly worse than the other options available this offseason except Hardy.

by MarkInDallas on Dec 13, 2010 10:32 PM EST up reply actions  

“I wouldn’t read too much into just 1 season of WAR.”

Sincerely,

Andy LaRoche and Garrett Jones

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 14, 2010 1:46 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Look at Milledge not being able to find a job. Or LaRoche.

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 13, 2010 10:21 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

this is getting a little bit crazy

just alot of hatred for one dude on a team full of bad performances.

by white angus on Dec 13, 2010 10:19 PM EST up reply actions  

no hatred for cedeno

Just no love or affection for a guy who is clearly below average. I am really surprised at the affection though for guys like Milledge and Cedeno who are cornerstones of last year’s 100 loss team.

by dack2001 on Dec 14, 2010 10:21 AM EST up reply actions  

Well, shoot,

Let’s just trade Ronnie back to Seattle for Jack Wilson. Since I’m an old school, broad metrics type, I pulled up all MLB shortstops stats for last year in a sortable table at CBS Fantasy Sports and what do I see?

  • Pedro Ciriaco had the highest BA (.500), OBP (.500), and slugging (1.000) of all MLB SS last year. Okay, maybe there’s something to this small sample size problem since he was 3-for-6. Turning to Ronnie,
  • Definitely lower 3rd in BA, but only .010 points lower than J.J. Hardy, but he still had a higher BA than some of the guys we’re kicking the tires on (Bartlett, Bill Hall) or other recognizable SS (J. Wilson of Seattle – both of ’em – and some guy named Jimmy Rollins of Philly).
  • Ronny had a better slugging percentage than Miguel Tejada (San Fran), Edgar Rentaria (San Fran), Jimmy Rollins, and some guy named Derek Jeter. He was among 3 SS w/29 doubles, which put him just outside of the top 10 in that category.
  • Yeah, Ronny had 18 errors, but Ian Desmond nearly doubled that total and nine other shortstops had more.

      I’m not saying we should sign Ronny to a Jeteresque contract. But, Ronny is servicable for now and next year, which will allow us to better evaluate our internal options (Friday, D’Arnaud, and Mercer (right?)) or find something better when the need is more urgent. Upgrading at SS to get us to 65 wins isn’t neede.

Why don't you knock it off with them negative vibes?!

by Trogluddite on Dec 13, 2010 8:45 PM EST reply actions  

The Dodgers supposedly are offering him their LF job, so I wouldn’t worry about it.

by WTM on Dec 13, 2010 9:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Can we sign him real quick then trade him to the Dodgers for retail?

elvishasleft.com
bestweekever.tv

by Dan H on Dec 14, 2010 2:15 AM EST up reply actions  

Yaarghh!

Now how do you really feel?

Why don't you knock it off with them negative vibes?!

by Trogluddite on Dec 13, 2010 9:50 PM EST up reply actions  

yes, yes, yes... cedeno is not an all star, and not even that great of a player

but fans seem to be blaming him more than anyone else have blinders on. cedeno has actually IMPROVED his game, and his time with the pirates have been the best of his career. yeah his career isnt anything to brag about, but i dont see guys like bartlett, ryan or even hardy IMPROVING on their game. thats the kind of trend that i look for.

by white angus on Dec 13, 2010 9:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I haven't figured it out exactly, but it's worth noting

The difference between Elvis Andrus’ 1.5 WAR and Ronny Cedeno’s 1.0 WAR in 2010 comes mostly from the fact Andrus played more. Cedeno had 502 PAs and Andrus had 674.

Of course, Andrus has an upside that Cedeno doesn’t at this point in time. Andrus has value as a leadoff guy that can create havoc, and his defense graded out as only slightly better than Ronny’s last year, despite the better reputation.

Nonetheless, the difference in reality is not nearly so great as to say one is a budding superstar and the other is garbage.

by MarkInDallas on Dec 13, 2010 9:08 PM EST reply actions  

!!!!!!!!!

Yes, it is. The difference in reality between Cedeno and Andrus is HUUUUUUGE!!!! It is, in fact, the difference between a star and a replacement player. You have to look at more than one year of data to see the difference, maybe, but it’s there and it’s pretty obvious.

by epoc on Dec 13, 2010 9:20 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not talking about looking into the future 5 years

I’m talking about last year and what their prognosis is for 2011. Cedeno had an OPS of .675 to Andrus’ .643.

Andrus has basically no power at all and gets his offensive value from his OBP, which was decent at .342 but not overly outstanding for a leadoff hitter.

Andrus has a great defensive rep, but much like Andrew McCutchen, the great numbers just haven’t been there. He’s better than Cedeno for sure, but it’s hard to argue that he’s much better than Cedeno with the bat.

by MarkInDallas on Dec 13, 2010 9:45 PM EST up reply actions  

i watched about 140 games this past season, ronny is NOT awful with the glove.

i dont care what UZR says, or DVD, or VHS. hes not “awful”. the problem with ronny: hes not Jack fricken Wilson with the mitt, thats the fricken problem around here.

by white angus on Dec 13, 2010 9:47 PM EST up reply actions  

For the record...

UZR agrees with you so you don’t need to bash it here. It has him as a -4.1 (UZR/150) for his career at SS which is below average but not awful.

by Slick1 on Dec 13, 2010 9:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe it’s just a tease, but Cedeno showed some nice pop in his bat last year. In fact, of 23 SS that had at least 500 PA, Cedeno ranked 13th in SLG and 10th in ISO. Of course he was 23rd in K rate and 20th in BB rate. If he could just improve his plate discipline a little, then he could be an asset on offense.

by TNbucs on Dec 13, 2010 9:25 PM EST reply actions  

At this point, it pretty much would take a miracle for Cedeno to change his game that much. He either doesn’t understand the value of the walk or he can’t do it.

by MarkInDallas on Dec 13, 2010 9:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Just checked the VWL stats

Ronny hitting .293 / .311 / .465.

Same ol’ same ol’.

by MarkInDallas on Dec 13, 2010 10:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, if he could hit near .300 in MLB that would be great, even with a .310 OBP. Problem is, he doesn’t use the VWL as practice of the skills that would help him be better in MLB. He can’t hit .290 in MLB. That translates into .230 in MLB with the higher level of competition.

by MarkInDallas on Dec 13, 2010 10:36 PM EST up reply actions  

The one walk in 117 plate appearances doesn’t concern anyone?? Same league…Tabata has 7 walks in 18 PA.

One thing I found interesting…Cedeno is credited with 14 sacrifices in those 117 plate appearances. In the majors last season, he had 7 in 502 PA.

by Thunder on Dec 14, 2010 10:35 AM EST up reply actions  

It concerns me though I could see where you might approach winter league a little differently. My hope is that with Hurdle being known for stressing taking a good approach at the plate, we might see an improvement from Cedeno this season. I know it’s hard for a player to change their approach, but if he could just become a little more selective he could really take advantage of his better-than-average pop (for a SS).

by TNbucs on Dec 14, 2010 10:47 AM EST up reply actions  

cedeno mostly batted ahead of the pitcher, where he’s going to see very little opportunities to bunt.

by johnnycuff on Dec 14, 2010 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

I’m confused again. Why are we ignoring previous years, like when Ronny was well below replacement in 2009?

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 13, 2010 9:31 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Nope. He collapsed defensively 2H 2010.

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 13, 2010 9:56 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

You mean like Brendan Ryan did offensively in all of 2010?

by WTM on Dec 13, 2010 9:59 PM EST up reply actions  

That was Babip related, though. If Cedeno and Ryan have the opposite batted ball luck, their lines are close to being flip-flopped.

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 13, 2010 10:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Not really

Ryan is a low BABIP hitter, probably because he has no power. That’s bad news, because BA is all he has. His ISO is almost non-existent and he has a low walk rate. The real anomaly was his 2009 season, when his BABIP was as far from his career norm as his 2010 BABIP. If his BABIP returns to normal, he’ll still be a black hole on offense.

by WTM on Dec 13, 2010 10:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Now I’m really confused:

Ryan career Babip: .292
Cedeno career Babip: .293

Based on their histories, both have normal Babips, and both are equally likely to have an abnormally low Babip in any given season.

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 13, 2010 10:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

since you are a metrics guy, adam, essplain this to me...

why is Ronny’s zone rating high, 5th best in the league, yet he is so gawd awful with the glove???

by white angus on Dec 13, 2010 10:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Want that just posted in another fanpost and he was -10?

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 13, 2010 10:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

its on baseball reference

says his range factor was 5th in the league per game. also finished 4th in assists.

by white angus on Dec 13, 2010 11:16 PM EST up reply actions  

this "range factor" also has tabata as #1 amongst left fielders

and jay bruce #1 amongst RFers, which is my argument on the other thread about the differences between bruce and cutch.

by white angus on Dec 13, 2010 11:19 PM EST up reply actions  

and of course the link doesnt work... sigh

just go to ronny’s page on baseball reference, go down to “appearances on leader boards” and click the zone rating thingy. a whole section will pop up and leaderboards for all positions.

by white angus on Dec 13, 2010 11:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Cedeno only outhit his BABIP by 20 points last year, and his career # is dragged down by an absurdly low BABIP in 2009. There’s probably a reason Bill James projects Cedeno to hit ten points above his career mark next year and Ryan to hit 6 points lower than his. So apparently James disagrees that they’re equally likely to hit below their career BABIP. Between you and James . . . well, sorry.

by WTM on Dec 13, 2010 10:34 PM EST up reply actions  

You didn’t like the James number that said Ryan would only hit .004 wOBA lower than Cedeno, which is basically the same. Your point of Ryan being worse at the plate was that Cedeno made him look like A-Rod. If its between you and Bill James…sorry.

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 13, 2010 10:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

no, ronny collapsed the last couple weeks of the season

and yes, it was brutal. but for the most part, he played SS better than you or any other metric guy is giving him credit. i watched nearly every game this season, and hes NOT the defensive problem we are all making him out to be… that being said, Hardy is much better with the glove and i dont need a metric thingy to figure that out.

by white angus on Dec 13, 2010 10:02 PM EST up reply actions  

It was more than one month. It was the last 3 months of Milledge-like attention span erosion.

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 13, 2010 10:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

cedeno is far from a great player

but he played very well defensively until the last few weeks of the season. i watched all the damn games, i saw all the damn plays. you are singling out ronny probably because you hated to see Mr Pittsburgh traded for him. once again, i know Ronny is NOT a great player, or even a good one, but he did play better once he became a pirate. and his Defense got praise from many people including guys like Neverett and Tekulve, who, if you didnt know, watch all the games too.

by white angus on Dec 13, 2010 10:30 PM EST up reply actions  

oh, you mean

like Garrett Jones after 2009?

by epoc on Dec 13, 2010 9:54 PM EST reply actions  

reply fail

This was supposed to be a reply to white angus.

by epoc on Dec 13, 2010 9:54 PM EST up reply actions  

dude, i wasnt on the Legend bandwagon at the start of the season

i pretty much was right on the money with his numbers, and since im usually wrong ya gotta give me this one!!! ahahahahahaaaaaaa

by white angus on Dec 13, 2010 10:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Anyone else interested in Marco Scutero?

by Danatural08 on Dec 13, 2010 10:01 PM EST reply actions  

Bartlett's 2009 season

How is that Bartlett has a career season in 2009, at the age of 29 or 30, yet most here feel Cedeno has no chance to have a career year at an even younger age?

I haven’t seen enough of Bartlett to evaluate his defense by eye, but I have seen enough of Cedeno to say his defense is mostly fine. Didn’t he make 7 of his errors in about one week in September? That means he played a lot of games making only 11.

by ballparkfranks on Dec 14, 2010 1:42 AM EST reply actions  

Ronny Cedeno must be thrilled with the err...vote of confidence from the club.

I guess he’ll have to drown his sorrows in $2million and that wife of his. She’s not Mrs. Duke, but I can see the appeal to some.

by patthatt on Dec 14, 2010 10:03 AM EST reply actions  

whoa

I didnt check now, but if memory serves me right, Ronny is 1 up over Mrs. Duke

by BurgherKing on Dec 14, 2010 11:20 AM EST up reply actions  

As it sits now

 there should be an open competition between Cedeno and J Rod…

 that the range #’s have Alvarez #3 reiterates my idea that they might as well be written on toilet paper…

 bottom line is Cedeno would start NO where…not even SD IMO in baseball…

 he has some pop…has some range…but is wildly inconsistent, seems never to have head in the game, and has poor baseball smarts…his bunting adventure, his instincts on bases and other intangibles…

 I hope to god that J Rod (who was highly thought of and has a high ceiling) comes in and plays to his supposed potential…it’d be a nice upgrade.

 I wouldn’t go out of my way to trade prospects for Bartlett at all…and signing the remaining SS’s seems senseless.

 It’d been nice to seen some creative thinking…possibly signing an international SS (like Minn)

 I like Uribe but 3/21 was alot more than I expected…I thought a 2/ 13-14 might have gotten him here…he went pretty high.

by Dan Jenkins on Dec 14, 2010 11:19 AM EST reply actions  

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