Errr, there is a leak in your....pitching rotation?
by C Shint on Dec 29, 2010 8:21 PM EST
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Pretty good article on Pirates Prospects on the "typical" standards for a rotation. I know on here talk of a starters potential as a #1 - 5 is thrown around loosely but we hardly have a measuring stick. Its an interesting find, and its simply going off ERA which can be skewed but at any rate its a good indicator to at least give us some idea where our guys stack up against the rest of the league in terms of starters by position in the rotation.
The sad part is that when I compare our pitchers to the top averages for the league (which i felt appropriate as I would like the team to be measured against the best and not the worst) we are just so far behind.
In terms of our pitchers, well I included everyone that made at least 10 starts for the Pirates in 2010, so i basically excluded Dan McCutchen and Zach Duke. I also used their career ERAs, not just their 2010 season.
Maholm: 4.48ERA - #4
Ohlendorf: 4.40ERA - #4
Karstens: 5.07ERA - #4
Morton: 5.98ERA - #5
McDonald: 3.84ERA - #3
Burres: 5.83ERA - #5
Baseball Stat Reference Page
Just one guy that rates in the range of a #3 starter with the majority as #4s. Not a recipe for success, and yeah we addressed the pitching this off-season but here is a look at Olsen and Correia and where they fall on the list,.
Olsen: 4.85ERA - #4
Correia: 4.57ERA - #4
So just more ""back of the rotation"" guys. Obviously neither Olsen or Correia was signed to be the Ace of the staff. But by this simple standard, we didn't even get guys that fit the standard of a #3 pitcher. While its still debatable the impact of the difference between a #3 and a #4 starter, its clear that the Pirates rotation is bad, and that it was addressed and is still really bad. No breaking news here, just thought some would like to see a simple measuring stick for a typical starter spot in the rotation.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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Burres with one ‘s’. Baseball reference is rather picky with their search criteria.
Thank you Ned Colletti.
by ryebr3ad on Dec 29, 2010 8:30 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Nice link,
It is useful to have some metric, simple or complex, to help focus discussions. How many others here are so old that they remember when a #1 starter (Ryan, Gibson, etc.) would have an ERA of 1.90-2.30? When AL teams adopted the DH, I seem to recall (anecdotally only) that “bad” pitchers in the AL had ERA’s of 4.00-4.25 or thereabouts. Juan Marichel, Gibson, Ryan, Tanana, and a host of others are spinning in their graves or dusting off their mitts at these stats.
"[T]o hold the body of women in our arms is ... the one ecstasy granted to the race of men."
recommand read
again from pittsburghpirates, we can see what NH wanted to build up the rotation as he described " the Minnesota Twins model" one year ago: http://www.piratesprospects.com/2010/03/do-pirates-need-ace.html
A leak??
If our rotation was a swimming pool…it would be empty.
no
theres always the puddle that remains in the deep end that is slightly below the drain
by white angus on Dec 29, 2010 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
That's even worse
You know how hard it is to clean that up? Impossible…
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
If it makes you feel any better...
piratesprospects has league average #2 starter @ 3.61 and #3 @ 4.15. Their range @ #2 is 3.36 – 3.88 for last season. So career wise, McDonald is closer to a #2 and last season (while in Pittsburgh’s rotation) he was a solid #2.
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets do a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
RIP Corey Keller, James Taylor, M. Jay Darby, Derek Davis.
by gorillakilla34 on Dec 29, 2010 10:59 PM EST reply actions
If you want to be cheered up...
…then take solace in the fact that some of those ERAs would be a stop or two lower if not for our shitty defense. So it’s still a problem, but a problem of a different sort.
earlier this year, there was a similar article (at Fangraphs?) that likewise attempted to define #1, #2, etc.
IIRC, it ranked pitchers in a rotation using ERA as well as rate stats (K/9?)
but for the life of me, I can’t remember the source or URL of that article. :(
alot of options at SP
will there be competition? This regime hasn’t allowed it for most part…everythings set up well before spring training…
competition will bring out the best…
I dont mean to beat a dead horse but…HOW DO YOU NOT GIVE THIS GUY A SHOT…
Given how well he’s pitched for Gwinnett and the velocity on his fastball, it was a near certainty that he would find a team that would be more than happy to give him a shot next week. However, he erased any doubts last night, and may have created enough demand to allow the Braves to trade him for something of value before next week rolls around.
His performance last night – 9 innings, 1 hit, 0 runs, 0 walks, 8 strikeouts. The one blemish on his otherwise perfect evening was promptly doubled off on the next play, allowing Resop to face the minimum in his complete game shutout. He faced 27 hitters and recorded 27 outs. Hard to do much better than that.
So now, an interesting question arises – what’s the market value for a 27-year-old with a good arm who is pitching well in Triple-A but has little history of success, and is in his first year as a starting pitcher? Originally drafted as an outfielder by the Marlins in 2001, he was converted to the bullpen in 2003, and made his way to the majors as a power reliever. The last few years have brought elbow surgery and some not-overly-impressive time with the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. There were few things less expected than Resop dominating as a starting pitcher, but dominate he has.
Posting 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings while simultaneously running a GB% of nearly 50 percent – those are the kinds of numbers that open eyes. The walks are a little high at 3.3 BB/9, and the big platoon splits should give us pause before we project him for stardom, but Resop has shown enough to be worth a flyer for a team that can afford to gamble on the 5th starter job.
How does a team w/ terrible starting pitching not atleast see if this guy’s starting pitching performance carried to the bigs…he absolutely dominated AAA…NH feels that middle relief is more important…make sure that 6-2 score doesn’t get to 7 or 8-2 by the 8th.
kinda like not using somebody off the bench incase we need them in x-tra innings
in the 6 inning of a 5-1 game.
by karreemofwheat on Dec 30, 2010 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
Competition??
The current Pirates front office doesn’t believe in spring training competitions for roster spots. The 2010 opening day roster should be good proof of that. That lineup was set on Valentine’s Day.
just how many teams have actual competitions for starting positions, thunder???
not including american legion ball, i mean…
Few, if any
Teams use spring training to see whether guys are healthy and in shape, whether prospects seem ready for the bigs, whether an aging veteran or two still has anything, etc. Competition is almost always limited to bench and bullpen spots, and maybe the back of the rotation.
Only a fool would rely primarily on spring training performance to decide important roles. Off the top of my head, the biggest Pirate springs I can remember: Mark Johnson, Chad Hermansen, Craig Monroe, Ronny Paulino (the year he fell off a cliff), and Delwyn Young. Yeah, spring training really tells us a lot.
however
the larger point still holds… Resop certainly deserves a shot as a starter. I thought so (and probably said so) when Resop went on waivers, and later after he was a Pirate
Different issue from what I was addressing. Whether they think of him as a starter or not has nothing to do with spring training “competition.” He could still move into the rotation during the season. It’s been done countless times.
One parallel to the Resop situation
CJ Wilson won the starter job in ST with the Rangers. He told the club he wanted to start, and they told him he would have to win the job in ST, which he did and it worked out well.
fair enough
but the Bucs would still do well to see if Resop can hold down a starting job. Let him start stretching out in camp, and in ST, and rely on the scouts/coaches to decide if he can start/if he is a better option as 5th SP than what we have. It’s easier (and probably safer) to have him stretch the arm out before the season than later
if needed, he could also move from the rotation to the pen.
+500
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 1, 2011 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
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