FanPost

1992 vs. 2010 Starting Pitcher Performance

I wanted to compare how the Buc’s SP did the last time we were good versus the 2010 performance. The goal was to see just how much difference there was between the two staffs as a measure of how far we have to go.  I used my HQS/QS/Avg/Poor/BlowUp as the metric for SP performance. The data is from  Baseball Reference (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PIT/1992-schedule-scores.shtml).

 

As you might recall in 1992, we had one very good pitcher (Doug Drabek), one good pitcher (Zane Smith), the superb callup of Tim Wakefield, and bunch of ordinary pitchers. The team won 96 games (39 more than the 2010 team), threw 20 shutouts, and ranked 3rd in ERA in the NL. Other than Drabek, you could not really point to any other SP as a long term star.

 

Here is how the two SP staffs compare:

 

Stat

2010 Pirates

1992 Pirates

Innings Pitched

5.4

6.1

Hits Allowed Per 9

10.8

8.8

Runs Allowed Per 9

5.9

3.7

BaseRunners per 9

13.9

11.2

ER Per 9

5.3

3.3

BB Per 9

3.1

2.4

SO Per 9

5.7

4.8

HR Per 9

1.2

0.5

HQS%

19%

35%

QS%

25%

25%

Avg%

16%

17%

Poor%

6%

4%

BlowUp%

35%

19%

%HQS/QS/Avg

60%

77%

HQS SP Win%

11%

22%

QS SP Win%

8%

11%

Avg SP Win%

1%

3%

Poor SP Win%

1%

0%

BlowUp SP Win%

1%

0%

 

To Compare, the 1992 SP gave up 2 less ER per game, 2.7 less Baserunners, .7 less HRs while striking out .9 less per game and pitching to roughly 2 more batters (.7) per game.

 

From a defensive perspective (based on RA minus ER), in 1992 the defense added .4 runs per game while in 2010 it added .7 runs per game.

 

Looking at the HQS/QS/Avg metric, the 1992 SP had 77% of their starts be HQS/QS/Avg while the 2010 staff had only 60%. The difference is in 1992 35% of starts were HQS, while in 2010 this was only 19%. Looking at the % of BlowUps, this was reversed with 2010 having 35% BlowUps to 1992’s 19%. Note also that the 2010 SP only got wins in 11% of their HQS while the 1992 SP got wins in 22%.

 

Below the jump is the data for individual pitchers. Looking at 1992 data and using the criteria that 74% is average for a SP, in 1992 only Randy Tomlin at 66% was below average for a SP who got more than 10 starts. In 2010, only Russ Ohlendorf was at league average. In 2010, there were 139 starts given to SPs who were at 66% or lower.

 

My conclusion? Well, we need a whole mess of much better SPs for us to begin to win again. Even pitchers we considered just average (or possibly less) in 1992 were much better than almost all of our SPs in 2010.




1992 Totals

Pitcher

Starts

HQS

QS

Avg

Poor

BlowUp

%HQS/QS/Avg

%Poor/Blowup

Paul Wagner

1

0%

100%

0%

0%

0%

100%

0%

Doug Drabek

34

29%

32%

29%

3%

6%

91%

9%

Tim Wakefield

12

42%

42%

0%

0%

17%

83%

17%

Zane Smith

22

41%

32%

9%

0%

18%

82%

18%

Danny Jackson

15

33%

33%

13%

0%

20%

80%

20%

Vicente Palacios

8

38%

25%

13%

0%

25%

75%

25%

Victor Cole

4

0%

0%

75%

0%

25%

75%

25%

Bob Walk

19

42%

16%

16%

16%

11%

74%

26%

Jeff Robinson

7

29%

14%

29%

0%

29%

71%

29%

Randy Tomlin

32

38%

19%

9%

3%

31%

66%

34%

Denny Neagle

6

33%

0%

17%

17%

33%

50%

50%

 

2010 Totals

Pitcher

Starts

HQS

QS

Avg

Poor

BlowUp

%HQS/QS/Avg

%Poor/Blowup

Eveland

1

0%

0%

100%

0%

0%

100%

0%

Ohlendorf

19

32%

26%

16%

0%

26%

74%

26%

Maholm

32

16%

31%

19%

13%

22%

66%

34%

McDonald, J

11

45%

9%

9%

9%

27%

64%

36%

Karstens

19

11%

42%

11%

0%

37%

63%

37%

Burres

13

38%

8%

15%

0%

38%

62%

38%

Morton

17

0%

29%

24%

6%

41%

53%

47%

Duke

29

17%

28%

7%

3%

45%

52%

48%

Lincoln

9

11%

0%

33%

0%

56%

44%

56%

McCutchen, D

9

22%

11%

11%

22%

33%

44%

56%

 

 

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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