1992 vs. 2010 Starting Pitcher Performance
by zogger on Dec 30, 2010 2:27 PM EST
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PrintI wanted to compare how the Buc’s SP did the last time we were good versus the 2010 performance. The goal was to see just how much difference there was between the two staffs as a measure of how far we have to go. I used my HQS/QS/Avg/Poor/BlowUp as the metric for SP performance. The data is from Baseball Reference (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PIT/1992-schedule-scores.shtml).
As you might recall in 1992, we had one very good pitcher (Doug Drabek), one good pitcher (Zane Smith), the superb callup of Tim Wakefield, and bunch of ordinary pitchers. The team won 96 games (39 more than the 2010 team), threw 20 shutouts, and ranked 3rd in ERA in the NL. Other than Drabek, you could not really point to any other SP as a long term star.
Here is how the two SP staffs compare:
|
Stat |
2010 Pirates |
1992 Pirates |
|
Innings Pitched |
5.4 |
6.1 |
|
Hits Allowed Per 9 |
10.8 |
8.8 |
|
Runs Allowed Per 9 |
5.9 |
3.7 |
|
BaseRunners per 9 |
13.9 |
11.2 |
|
ER Per 9 |
5.3 |
3.3 |
|
BB Per 9 |
3.1 |
2.4 |
|
SO Per 9 |
5.7 |
4.8 |
|
HR Per 9 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
|
HQS% |
19% |
35% |
|
QS% |
25% |
25% |
|
Avg% |
16% |
17% |
|
Poor% |
6% |
4% |
|
BlowUp% |
35% |
19% |
|
%HQS/QS/Avg |
60% |
77% |
|
HQS SP Win% |
11% |
22% |
|
QS SP Win% |
8% |
11% |
|
Avg SP Win% |
1% |
3% |
|
Poor SP Win% |
1% |
0% |
|
BlowUp SP Win% |
1% |
0% |
To Compare, the 1992 SP gave up 2 less ER per game, 2.7 less Baserunners, .7 less HRs while striking out .9 less per game and pitching to roughly 2 more batters (.7) per game.
From a defensive perspective (based on RA minus ER), in 1992 the defense added .4 runs per game while in 2010 it added .7 runs per game.
Looking at the HQS/QS/Avg metric, the 1992 SP had 77% of their starts be HQS/QS/Avg while the 2010 staff had only 60%. The difference is in 1992 35% of starts were HQS, while in 2010 this was only 19%. Looking at the % of BlowUps, this was reversed with 2010 having 35% BlowUps to 1992’s 19%. Note also that the 2010 SP only got wins in 11% of their HQS while the 1992 SP got wins in 22%.
Below the jump is the data for individual pitchers. Looking at 1992 data and using the criteria that 74% is average for a SP, in 1992 only Randy Tomlin at 66% was below average for a SP who got more than 10 starts. In 2010, only Russ Ohlendorf was at league average. In 2010, there were 139 starts given to SPs who were at 66% or lower.
My conclusion? Well, we need a whole mess of much better SPs for us to begin to win again. Even pitchers we considered just average (or possibly less) in 1992 were much better than almost all of our SPs in 2010.
|
1992 Totals |
||||||||
|
Pitcher |
Starts |
HQS |
QS |
Avg |
Poor |
BlowUp |
%HQS/QS/Avg |
%Poor/Blowup |
|
Paul Wagner |
1 |
0% |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
0% |
|
Doug Drabek |
34 |
29% |
32% |
29% |
3% |
6% |
91% |
9% |
|
Tim Wakefield |
12 |
42% |
42% |
0% |
0% |
17% |
83% |
17% |
|
Zane Smith |
22 |
41% |
32% |
9% |
0% |
18% |
82% |
18% |
|
Danny Jackson |
15 |
33% |
33% |
13% |
0% |
20% |
80% |
20% |
|
Vicente Palacios |
8 |
38% |
25% |
13% |
0% |
25% |
75% |
25% |
|
Victor Cole |
4 |
0% |
0% |
75% |
0% |
25% |
75% |
25% |
|
Bob Walk |
19 |
42% |
16% |
16% |
16% |
11% |
74% |
26% |
|
Jeff Robinson |
7 |
29% |
14% |
29% |
0% |
29% |
71% |
29% |
|
Randy Tomlin |
32 |
38% |
19% |
9% |
3% |
31% |
66% |
34% |
|
Denny Neagle |
6 |
33% |
0% |
17% |
17% |
33% |
50% |
50% |
2010 Totals
|
Pitcher |
Starts |
HQS |
QS |
Avg |
Poor |
BlowUp |
%HQS/QS/Avg |
%Poor/Blowup |
|
Eveland |
1 |
0% |
0% |
100% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
0% |
|
Ohlendorf |
19 |
32% |
26% |
16% |
0% |
26% |
74% |
26% |
|
Maholm |
32 |
16% |
31% |
19% |
13% |
22% |
66% |
34% |
|
McDonald, J |
11 |
45% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
27% |
64% |
36% |
|
Karstens |
19 |
11% |
42% |
11% |
0% |
37% |
63% |
37% |
|
Burres |
13 |
38% |
8% |
15% |
0% |
38% |
62% |
38% |
|
Morton |
17 |
0% |
29% |
24% |
6% |
41% |
53% |
47% |
|
Duke |
29 |
17% |
28% |
7% |
3% |
45% |
52% |
48% |
|
Lincoln |
9 |
11% |
0% |
33% |
0% |
56% |
44% |
56% |
|
McCutchen, D |
9 |
22% |
11% |
11% |
22% |
33% |
44% |
56% |
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
3 comments
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1 recs |
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Comments
Opps!
The last 5 entries in the comparison table should be:
Stat………………………..2010 Pirates…..1992 Pirates
HQS SP Win%……………55%………………61%
QS SP Win%………………33%………………44%
Avg SP Win%……………….4%……………….19%
Poor SP Win%……………11%…………………0%
BlowUp SP Win%…………4%…………………0%
The note should then be:
Note also that the 2010 SP only got wins in 55% of their HQS while the 1992 SP got wins in 61%.
Since we are talking about that era...
I saw that Barry Bonds had a fielding value of 37 in 1989. For those of you who witnessed Bonds in the Pirates outfield, was he really that good defensively, and does Jose Tabata have a chance to be that kind of defender?
H2O
Bonds was a fantastic OF’er…read the ball off the bat immediately and had very good speed.
Tabata is just as fast but from my perspective…he’s not as good reading off the bat/ routes to the ball…
I expect Tabata to improve somewhat w/ time here…getting used to the bigs/ stadium…though I dont think he’ll reach Bonds plateau.
He may surprise us all though.
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