Community Projection: Garrett Jones
by Charlie on Feb 13, 2010 12:39 AM EST
86 comments
Type your guesses about Garrett Jones's 2010 average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage in the comments below. As a bonus, guess the number of solo homers Jones will hit after hitting about 82 of them in 2009. Any registered user can join in, so if you aren't registered, feel free to sign up. We'll compile the results into an overall community projection once we're done. Here are Jones' career numbers.
The community projection for Andrew McCutchen is now complete, and if my count is right there were 107 (!) guesses. Thanks to Chris Durst for making a spreadsheet that made things a little easier on me. Here are the results:
| Player | Position | AVG | OBP | SLG | Bonus | ZiPS |
| Andrew McCutchen | CF | .287 | .364 | .459 | 13 triples | .281/.355/.446 |
The community projection is pretty much ZiPS' projection but with a little Pirate fan bump.
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.275/.360/.510. 10 solo HR's, 25 total
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"the earth moves when Sean Payton walks...Because his balls are just that huge." Anarchon after Super Bowl XLIV
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
.273/.325/.499 13 solo homers
I expect Jones continues to hit for alot of power (25-30 HRs), but comes back to earth a bit, and posts a low avg./obp.
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 13, 2010 12:57 AM EST reply actions
.285/.365/.515
17 solos
31 bombs
I feel like what gets lost in the shuffle of Jones’ value is his OBP potential. Everyone salivates over his power and even speed for a big guy, but his ability to take pitches and draw walks should not be overlooked.
That’s because he’s never had a high OBP that wasn’t average-driven. Last season he had a high OBP, but he also hit almost .300. He struck out nearly twice as much as he walked. That’s even worse in the minors; over 3x as many Ks as BBs career minor league stats. He got better once he got to AAA, but discipline has never been his strong suit.
http://fanhuddle.com/pittsburghpirates
.271/.348/.502
14 solo homers. A little more than 25 home runs and a little less than 15 steals while splitting time between RF and 1B.
Jones prediction
avg: .280
obp: .342
slg: .476
Bonus: 7 solo homers
Jones Will Pound 'em
Avg: .270
OBP: .363
SLG: .563
Bonus-Solo HR: 20
Extra Bonus SB: 15
I think he will hit for lower average but same power. So 40 HR and 35 2B!
legend
ave.295
obp-335
slg-525
14of his 33hr are solo’s
"sale the team" sweetleb
Jones
.268/.356/.482
9 solo homers
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 13, 2010 10:27 AM EST reply actions
Garrett Jones prediction:
He has such a huge year that he squeezes his way into the top 10 for the NL MVP.
I really like the guy
I thought like alot of others here that he’d come back to earth last year but he didn’t, and hearing the guy at Piratefest won me over – he’s got the mindset of a true great.
.283/.367/.583
Bonus: 12 solos(39 overall)
Forecast:
.279/.336/.501, with six solo HRs (will be easier to predict when we see who is in front of him) and far too many times called “The Legend.”
.285/.376/.505/.372 wOBA
32 HRs – 19 solo shots (60%), which is a little lower percentage than Bay in 2006.
Why such a high difference between BA and OBP?
Are you expecting Jones to start throwing himself in front of pitches?
I respect your opinion and baseball knowledge but this seems like a hugely optimistic prediction.
(Hope you’re right!)
by RDV across the sea on Feb 13, 2010 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
These are Jones exact numbers the last 2 months of the season in 2009. I’m just going to project that out for the fun of this exercise. If I were to guess otherwise, I’d say .290/.370/.510.
Beyond that, I do think he will continue to show a better walk ratio than he did in the minors. There’s a chance he thought his ticket to the majors was in putting up HR numbers. He was quite patient in the last 2 months of the season as his numbers show. He seems very content to get on base no matter the method. When they tried an overshift on him, he just laid down a bunt and that stopped that immediately. He also had no problem shortening his swing and punching easy singles to the opposite field when down in the count. We’ll see if that continues or not.
by MarkInDallas on Feb 13, 2010 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
I appresciate your work. . .
as you are generally logic driven, understand statistical analysis and obviously do your homework, but you are a bit overly optimistic. Not just here, but in general. Jones’s line will be nowhere near there, and playing out a two month sample as opposed to years of minor league data is a silly.
We’ll see. I’m sure I’ll take my lumps if I’m wrong on this. I’ve already explained my take on his minor league numbers and how I see them as a gradual increase in skill level. It’s not like I’m taking all 3 months and projecting them out. I’m disregarding his best month. Unlike everyone else in the world, I don’t believe the only way he can go is down. I also believe he could go up. After all, he’s gotten better in each season for the last 3 years. He still has aspects where he could improve and seems to have the desire to.
by MarkInDallas on Feb 14, 2010 1:17 AM EST up reply actions
Some pretty optimistic predictions here
.262/.320/.440
19 HRs, 10 solo
.232/.295/.398
7 homers total, 4 solo
Loses his starting job midseason
by thecheeseisblue on Feb 13, 2010 6:20 PM EST reply actions
.278/.345/.489
11 solo shots….. the other 19 HRs will all be grand slams…….
"I choose to gamble with my life
Twice the risk, four times the prize
Nothing knocks me over"
Jones - the new Pops Stargell
.266/.385 (he gets walked a lot)/.455 – 36 home runs, only 12 of which are solo, making us all go, “Adam LaWho?”
super optimistic
is the only way to separate it looks like:
.305/.365/.540
13 solo bombs
by reverse apache master on Feb 14, 2010 10:31 PM EST reply actions
Late to the party
Like others, I expect some regression from G.I. Jones.
.265/.340/.480
8 solo shots
.269/.354/.521
16 solo 31 over all.
4 stolen bases……. 6 caught stealing
Here today . . .
.243/.296/.354 – 5 solo HR’s
how about some optimism?
Garrett Jones….
He’ll hit .282 with 32 homers and 90 RBI’s, only hit .238 w/RISP thus the low RBI Total, but a marked improvement over the .1something he hit in 2009. he’ll hit 17 homers Solo and 9 more with only 1 man on, 5 with 2 runners on, and 1 grand slam. 36 doubles and 4 triples along with 135 K’s and 76 BB. 14 SB’s
Garret Jones will hit .275 with 11 HRs and 46 RBIs before being traded in late June or early July to clear a space for Tabata. He will finish the year overall around .268 with 20 HRs and 65 RBIs. This is optimistic, but I think Jones will hit a lot of doubles this year.
by 2010 will be the year on Feb 22, 2010 4:12 PM EST reply actions
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