Why Ranaudo or Taillon will not be the #2 pick in the 2010 draft.
by Slick1 on Feb 14, 2010 11:56 PM EST
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There was an interesting article on Fangraphs not too long that looked at the flame out rate of draft picks. The results were interesting and line up pretty close to what Alex Pedicini concluded on a recent article post on the Hardball Times: "Analyzing the MLB Draft using WAR."
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/analyzing-the-mlb-draft-using-war/
In short, the article looked at all draft picks from 1992-1999 that reached the majors and calculated the combined WAR (wins above replacement). I'll keep this post relegated to the 1st round because the WAR drop off after the 1st round is significant. Click on the link for the rest of the article; it's a quick but interesting read. The results are as follows:
College Hitters - 1.336 WAR/year
HS hitters - 1.204 WAR/year
College pitchers - .649 WAR/year
HS pitchers - .878 WAR/year
As you can see the difference between a college hitter vs a college pitcher is over 1 WAR/year. The fact the HS pitchers are worth more would seem to justify the Huntington draft philosophy of signing a bunch of high ceiling, over-slot, HS arms in later rounds while taking a college position player with the 1st pick. My guess would be that college pitchers are abused so much that most of them flame out due to injury. I don't have any reliable data on that just stating what seems to make sense to me.
Anyway, a lot of mock drafts have the Bucs taking either Ranaudo and Taillon this year but I don't see it happening given the data above and what we know about Huntington. None of the arms in this year's draft project to be a Strasburg so I think we need to keep our eyes on some of the position players this year. The College season starts next week and here are a few players worth keeping tabs on:
SS Christian Colon - Cal St. Fullerton
OF Bryce Brentz - Mid Tennesse St
3B Zach Cox - Arkansas
SS Rick Hague - Rice
Just to go on record now I think the pick will be Brentz but it's way too soon to tell. Colon is an interesting player but I'm curious to see how he'll return from his leg injury and I'm not too impressed with his defense. Cox may have as much offensive upside as Brentz so he could definitely separate himself. Hague probably wouldn't be on most people's list for a pick this high but I think he is a sleeper. He is an above average defender with the potential for an above average bat. Anyway, I love college baseball and I thought I'd throw out some names for us to pay attention to. BTW, Harper isn't on the list because I do expect him to go #1 to the Nats.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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My only issue with his methodology is that he only counted players who made the majors. My unscientific guess is that pitchers are somewhat more likely to at least get a cup of coffee in the majors than hitters, and that may skew the results somewhat. Or maybe not…either way it would be interesting to know.
Are you sure that’s the methodology, maguro? I can’t find where it says one way or the other, but since it makes more sense to count all the players I had assumed that’s what he did.
All it says about the methodology is:
Using the first 100 picks from the 1992-1999 drafts I came up with a sample of 388 players who reached the major leagues.
So I assume guys who never reached the bigs at all weren’t included in the study. I don’t know if it would have made much of a difference in the results or not. Probably not much of an effect either way, it just seems like an odd stipulation for a study like this one.
agents
I think the agent and his asking price are more important than a war rating or actual talent. taillion is the pick on talent alone ,also when was the last time we have chance to take the best hs pitcher out of texas.
"sale the team" sweetleb
"when was the last time we have chance to take the best hs pitcher out of texas"
We almost always have that chance, actually.
2009: Matt Purke, available at our slot
2008: Ross Seaton, available at our slot
2007: Blake Beavan, available at our slot
2006: Clayton Kershaw, available at our slot
2005: Craig Italiano, available at our slot
2004: Homer Bailey, not available at our slot (chosen #7, we picked #11)
2003: John Danks, available at our slot
2002: Scott Kazmir, available at our slot
2001: Colt Griffin, available at our slot
As you can see from the list, there are times when taking the best h.s. pitcher out of texas is a good strategy, and times when it is not.
one reason I wouldn't mind
Ranaudo is his K/9. Last year he had a 11.5 K/9 in what most feel is the best college baseball conference. Strasburg had a 12.3 K/9 in a much weaker conference his sophmore year. You gotta believe if this guy puts up another great year, he’s going to have a ton of hype. Sure it’s silly to sit here and talk about the draft this early, when these guys haven’t even started the season, but for a pitcher to put up those kind of numbers in that conference, he’s a special player thats worth going against the odds
Out of those named...
I would take either Cox or Colon. I am not a believer in Brentz bat or his defensive ability. I know his team is going to be trying him out in CF this year, but that won’t last long and I can’t see him being anything more than an average at 1B defensively with a below average bat there.
There is only one college pitcher I would take in the draft this year and that is Deck McGuire. He has four pitches that all have the potential to be plus and he is a big kid with room to add velocity on his low 90s fastball. He has yet to put up the numbers Ranaudo has and that is a mjor reason why he is not rated higher than him right now, but If I were you guys, I would keep an eye on him for sure because I believe those numbers are coming this year.
Also...
Rick Hague is not a top of the first round prospect unless he has a HUGE season. He is more of a sandwich round to second round pick.
I don't know...
I personally think more late 1st round. Sandwich and 2nd round seem to be too late for him. He’s a better defender than Colon so it comes down to the bat. BA just publisehd their top 100 today and Hague came in at #10.
>http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/early-draft-preview/2010/269512.html
For us to take him at #2 though you are correct, he would have to have a huge season.
On Brentz we’ll just have to disagree. I think he has incredible bat speed, above average speed (for a corner) and a plus arm. He’s be perfect for RF. He even has some room on his frame to add muscle so there is still power to develop. I think he’ll be a better hitter and defender once he gives up pitching as well.
I like Deck and Ranaudo but I just don’t see us taking a college pitcher with the 2nd pick. I think you are right that McGuire will have a big season this year.
Brentz's Swing
Just makes me smile. I really really like it.
That being said, I don’t have any clue if he has a position so here is to hoping Colon steps up this year — I don’t really want to draft a pitcher second. I wouldn’t mind drafting Taillon if he he has a nice year and if the Pirates picked in the 5-8 range though (but obviously they do not). You HAVE to get something out of your first-round pick if you pick in the top 3, and so at top 3 I just do not love taking a HS pitcher, but a little later in the draft you can risk it a bit more. I’m not infatuated with Ranaudo either way since I question his secondary stuff.
Ranaudo'd curve is nasty.
But I’m not in love with any of the pitchers yet to make me want to pass on a position player given what we know about flame out rate by position and the above study on WAR values.
McGuire...
is who I would pick if i was GM. He has four potential plus pitches! A pitcher like that with his projectability in his 6’6’’ frame is hard to find anywhere. I can’t name a pitcher that is currently in the majors who is similar. Ranaudo is currently a two pitch pitcher(though they are two nasty pitches) and I don;t see him developing anything more than an average change which would still make him a top end starter, but I think McGuire could be special.
I truly dont want a HS arm.
Brentz just doesn’t really do anything for me. He does have a good swing and has put up good numbers, but those numbers have come against worse competition. If he was in a major college conference like Ranuado, his numbers would be worse enough to take him out of the discussion for the first round especially because he is too stiff of a defender to succeed anywhere. He does have a good arm, but he would give up too many runs defensively to be a starter in right.
I don't disagree...
with your assessment of McGuire. I too think he has the potential to be a really nice pitcher. No arguments here. I just don’t think we’ll draft a pitcher with the 2nd pick. On Brentz, from what I read he projects to be an above average defender in right and I think he’ll get better once he gives up pitching. You are right about the level of competition but he performed pretty well for Team USA last year. I think he’s worth keeping an eye on.
I believe I've asked this of you before...
But do you avoid the HS pitchers early because of the Bucs awful track record with them recently or do you think the failure rate with them at those high spots is much higher than college arms? The one good thing about HS pitchers is the organization gets control of them right away. The issue I’d have with some college pitchers (and we know more about this now than we did even 10 years ago) are their work loads, which can be criminal (lots of pitchers from Rice). All this being said, I think McGuire has an edge over Ranaudo for sure, especially with the secondary stuff. They both look like horses, and so does Taillon for that matter.
I'm curious also
because the stats say that college arms are considerably more likely to be busts.
by MarkInDallas on Feb 15, 2010 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
In fairness to Wayne Graham (the Rice coach)...
…while he used to work his pitchers as hard as anybody, he had a “road to Damascus” moment on pitcher usage a few years back, and has since become much more reasonable in his handling of his guys.
For what its worth, it sounds like the 2011 draft (talk about getting ahead of ourselves) has several pitchers who profile better than the top college arms of this year’s draft (Gerrit Cole, Jack Armstrong Jr. are two of them). Plus, Anthony Rendon at Rice sounds like a version of Pedro who stands a better chance of staying at third base. It looks like this 2011 class is pretty up-there in terms of talent…considering this, maybe its no wonder Harper chose to come out this year. I know this is super early to think about next year’s draft, let alone this year, but its always fun to take a look just the same.
Just to go on record now I think the pick will be Brentz but it’s way too soon to tell.
BTW, Harper isn’t on the list because I do expect him to go #1 to the Nats.
It is way too soon and we can’t be sure of how anyone will play in the upcoming spring college season, let alone what HS stars will separate themselves, so it’s time to shift the focus to what’s going on in Bradenton from this weekend.
I’m as high on Ranaudo as anyone, but going with a high-probability college hitter in each draft along with a few over-slot high school pitchers is a very justifiable strategy.
It’s interesting how we’ve avoided college hitters like the plague before 2008. In the first rounds from 1987-2007, we picked one four-year college hitter (Jermaine Allensworth), and one Juco (John Farrell).
In the second round from 1983-2007, we only picked 2 college hitters, Brad Corley and Brian Bixler. In the third round we have picked some low-ceiling college position players, but even then there are more high school position or college pitchers.
So by going with a college hitter in the 1st/2nd (which have better odds of success), the Pirates are doing what they haven’t done for decades.
That is literally crazy insane
That just goes to show us why we are 17 years and counting and why Pedro Alvarez is the Pirates’ best hitting prospect since Barry Bonds. You hit the nail on the head.
by MarkInDallas on Feb 15, 2010 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
In Webster’s definition of “insanity,” the second alternate is “Pirates’ draft history.”
It seems very clear that the current FO really wants to take college hitters in round one. Of course, in the never-ending tragi-comic story that is the Pirates, they finally have a FO that’s looked at the historical facts at a time when top college hitters are becoming rare as hen’s teeth. All the top HS players are jumping at the crazy bonus money that’s available now, so the quality of college talent is waning rapidly. It’s probably more true of hitters than pitchers because it’s easier to project hitters, so more pitchers break out in college.
Anyway, however the first round goes, the college ranks are supposed to have a lot of supp-1st and 2nd-round level outfielders. I’m hoping the Pirates can get a good college bat in round 2.
It doesn’t seem like the current FO has passed up big high school hitters in the first round, though. Alvarez was seen by many as the best player in the 08 draft (either him or college hitters Smoak/Posey or maybe even college Beckham). Tony Sanchez was generally ranked, among those available 4th overall, behind a plethora of arms and maybe college IF Grant Green.
The current FO strategy might actually be to pick the best hitter regardless of HS/College, but it just so happens the best available bat was a college guy two years running.
by Adam Reynolds on Feb 16, 2010 2:38 AM EST up reply actions
They did...
apparently consider Beckham in 08 and Borchering and Myers in 09. So I think you’re right to some degree in that they will take a HS player if they feel that person is the best offensive player. It may take a HS player longer to reach the majors but the WAR values aren’t much lower than the college player.
High school players in general, though, have a reduced chance of reaching the majors. That said, if the top hitter on the board was a high schooler with the talent of a B.J. Upton or Justin Upton, then I believe our FO would take him.
Huntington/Smith have a preference for collegiate batters, but I don’t think they’ll be completely doctrinaire about it.
by Adam Reynolds on Feb 16, 2010 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
I agree...
and WTM brings up a good point that it seems that more offensively gifted HS prospects are passing up college for the bonus money. If that does in fact turn out to be a trend I think they will have to adjust their philosophy accordingly and start look to more HS bats in the 1st round. And while HS players have a reduced chance of making the majors the gap between them and college players is not significant enough to pass up on a HS player if that player is deemed to be a superior talent at the time of the draft.
1988
Pirates take HS infielder Austin Manahan. College bat Tino Martinez is picked next. Manahan never makes the show.
by MarkInDallas on Feb 16, 2010 1:26 AM EST up reply actions
1989
Pirates take HS SS Willie Green at #18. He is luckily traded with Moises Alou for Zane Smith.
College bat Mo Vaughn goes #23 and college bat Chuck Knoblauch goes #25.
by MarkInDallas on Feb 16, 2010 1:33 AM EST up reply actions
Greene was a pretty solid player.
Developed into a starting-caliber ML 3B, before his career got wrecked by injuries.
Yep, he was a left handed hitting third baseman with some pop who never got to see his prime years…could have had a Graig Nettles-type career without the injuries.
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Feb 17, 2010 8:41 AM EST up reply actions
1991
Pirates take JC catcher Jon Farrell #24. He never makes it past AA. The next college catcher taken is Scott Hatteberg.
1994
Pirates take HS SS Mark Farris at #11. Farris becomes better known for playing QB for Texas A&M as an overaged (a la Chris Weinke and Josh Booty) college player.
Red Sox take college SS Nomar Garciaparra at #12. Mariners take college C Jason Varitek at #14. (Then again, the Dodgers took HS SS Paul Konerko #13. That’s 12 ASG’s in the next three picks. No wonder we were so lame all those years.)
That one hurt the most of all, at least to me
I thought that we had agreed never to speak of that again?
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Feb 17, 2010 8:42 AM EST up reply actions
Bad luck hurt the most when we got Mark Merchant
instead of Ken Griffey because they alternated the overall #1 draft picks at the time.
We lost 98 in ’86 and the Mariners lost 95, but no luck for us.
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