Waiver Pickup: Gaby Hernandez?
by Vlad on Feb 2, 2010 6:50 PM EST
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Please note: I'm just throwing this out there as a thought. I have no real information indicating that it might actually happen.
In order to clear a roster spot for recent signee Ryan Garko , the Seattle Mariners designated pitcher Gaby Hernandez for assignment. I'm curious what people here think about him as a possible waiver claim.
Hernandez is a right-handed starting pitcher, listed at 6'3" and 215 lbs, who will be 24 next season. 2009 was his first year on Seattle's 40-man roster, and as such he has two options remaining. He was originally a third-round pick by the Mets in the 2004 draft, out of a high school in Miami. The Mets traded him to the Marlins in a deal for Paul Lo Duca in 2005, and the Marlins passed him on to the Mariners in 2008 in exchange for Arthur Rhodes .
Hernandez had been fairly highly-regarded as a prospect throughout most of his minor league career. Baseball America ranked him between #3 and #5 in his teams' systems every year from 2005-2008, for example, and John Sickels listed him as the #37 pitching prospect in baseball as recently as 2008. His BA scouting reports across the years credit him with a low-90s fastball with sink, a good changeup, and a curve that's inconsistent but effective when it's on. Physically, he's described as athletic and durable, with a clean delivery. I've attached some film from a June 2009 game below, so you can judge for yourself.
Hernandez fell almost all the way off the prospect map after struggling in 2008 and 2009. In 2008, he surrendered 14 home runs in only 64 AAA innings, and was demoted back to AA to repeat the level, then capped off a disastrous season by struggling in the AFL. He made a second attempt at AAA in 2009 and held his own but did not excel, posting a 5.23 ERA and 1.41 WHIP as a member of Tacoma's rotation. HIs peripheral numbers (6.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9) suggest that he may have been undermined by some bad luck, with Fangraphs translating them into a FIP of 4.49. He's a flyball pitcher, accounting in part for the problems with the long ball, and he doesn't miss as many bats as you might expect for a player with his pedigree and scouting reports. His full minor league stats are here .
While Hernandez probably would not be ready for a ML role in 2010, I think he could be an interesting project to stash at Indy this year, and then provide a potential rotation option for 2011 if he shows progress, filling the Creech gap in front of our cattle call of promising A-ball arms. Huntington has shown some proclivity for making waiver claims on players from organizations we recently scouted prior to trades (Justin Thomas , Anthony Claggett , Steven Jackson , etc.) - perhaps he will do the same here. If so, hopefully he will turn out better than the last G. Hernandez we picked up .
What do you think? Yea, or nay? And if your response is affirmative, who should go from the roster in order to make room?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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To Charlie
Didn’t know if this would have enough general interest to be worth prime real estate, so I left it as a FanPost.
Nah, I promoted it. A potential add to the 40-man roster is definitely interesting enough.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Feb 3, 2010 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
dont know much about him
the thing that struck me was “hopefully he will turn out better than the last G. Hernandez we picked up .” Given up on Gorkys already?
I haven't given up on Gorkys...
…but I don’t think anyone would deny that his performance since the trade has been disappointing.
by Vlad on Feb 2, 2010 7:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I recently read someone (could have sworn it was NH, but I can’t find the source now) compare Gorkys Hernandez to Nyjer Morgan. I think that’s a valuable comparison, and kind of puts his power development into perspective: even if it never shows up, he’s still an exciting prospect because of the speed and defense.
Another guy I feel similarly about is Argenis Diaz. Of course, Diaz is never going to develop power, and he’s not as likely to ever hit acceptably at the ML level, but the great defense at premium positions excites me.
maybe only as a defensive replacement
the bat doesn’t exist for all practical purposes, and it seems like the Mendoza line is the ceiling. He’s young and could develop a bit more in a year or 2, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Also, no speed, I think I read somewhere…
That's interesting
Isn’t that the same thing everybody said about Nyjer before last year?
Regardless, I have to assume you’re being hyperbolic. Gorky’s ceiling is far better than the Mendoza line, of course. BA’s been raving about his tools forever, and he’s still our tenth best prospect, according to them. Most other prospecters have soured on him considerably, but the tools are definitely there (even if the power is latent) for him to be an impact player if he puts it all together. And at only 21, he’s still got plenty of time. I can easily see him being as good as Tabata, for instance, who’s basically the same player, except with worse defense and better age relative to league.
I doubt he’ll hit his ceiling, though. I see him as a Nyjer Morgan or Endy Chavez, like I said. I love that type of player as a 4th outfielder, and I’d be fine if that’s all Gorky is for the Bucs, but if the bat develops at all, I’d also be very happy to have him starting in left field. Or we could trade him for another Milledge, maybe. I’d be happy with that, too, as long as the next Milledge is as cool as this one.
misunderstanding here
i should have clarified, but I didn’t notice it- I was talking entirely about Argenis Diaz in your comment. I like Gorkys a whole lot, and I hope he develops into Nyjer type player at least, and his ceiling is a lot higher hes what – 22?
I think he was talking about Diaz and if so he's right...
there’s a huge difference between Nyjer’s offensive production in the minors and this guy. Diaz can barely hit .200 in AAA. He would likely have a worse offensive stat line than our pitching staff. I supposed if his defense is good enought he could always bat ninth but if this guy ever makes to the show they will have to rename the phrase to Argenis Diaz. The pitcher’s coming that should be an Argenizs Diaz.
As far as Gorky’s I think he still may have a Nyjer ceiling if everything works right but again Nyjer’s offensive numbers in the minors were much better. As of right now I don’t see him being Nyjer at the ML level though it’s possible if he starts making more contact and uses his speed to get his BABIP up. If he can hit above .250 he should have value because he is supposedly a plus plus defender. Most scouts say he is better than Cutch. I think right now Gorky’s has 4th or 5th OF written all over him unless something clicks this year.
Gorkys and Nyjer have pretty much identical minor league hitting records – .730 vs .736 OPS respectively. Of course, you have to remember that Nyjer has overachieved with the bat in majors so far and there’s no guarantee Gorkys will do the same.
You also have to remember...
…that Gorkys was 21 while playing in AA this year, while Nyjer wasn’t even drafted until he was 22, and didn’t make it to AA until he was 25.
That's the big difference
Gorkys still has time to develop, but I think 2010 is an important year for him to get back on track.
I'm not sure which way that's supposed to go
One of the reasons I never liked the pre-2009 “Nyjer is too old to break out” arguments was that he did start so late – iirc, he basically played no organized baseball at all before his late teens. We take it as a given that most baseball players are still refining their skills 10-12 years after they first pull on a baseball jersey*, and so it only made sense to think that Nyjer could still develop skills (like better OF routing and a bit more plate discipline) at an age when most players have established skillsets.
Point being, while it’s certainly true that Gorkys is still reasonably young – and he certainly has more years of being a speedy OF ahead of him that Nyjer does – he’s not that far behind Nyjer on the developmental curve. I don’t know at what age you want to consider Little League real preparation for pro ball (I don’t think skipping t-ball delays a player’s development, but clearly a kid who never swings a bat before age 12 is going to be behind his peers for awhile), but Gorkys has presumably been playing ball and being coached for 10+ years – there’s not that much more for him to learn, except at the margins.
- I wanted to say “stirrups,” but most of them don’t anymore, do they?
Age curves...
…are less about experience and more aboout the physical peak of the athlete. As such, Gorkys has significantly more developmental potential than Nyjer did at the same age.
Yeah, you're right.
I was going off of memory and I was flat out wrong. Given that, and his age, I think he has a higher ceiling than Nyjer.
why not
peirce is still on our 40 man ,also some light hitting ss. we have room.
'position flex-ability, yea baby' austin powers
+1 What he said
What’s our pitching coach’s name again? Spin Williams? Na, we got some guy named Kerrigan now. He may not be able to make the deaf speak and the blind hear, but I’ve heard that he’s close to a miracle worker with pitchers. Let him look at the tapes, kick the tires, and if he says he can work with this kid, take him.
Although...
Kerrigan liked what he saw in Phil Dumatrait and then it all went pear shaped. I think Kerrigan is damned good but some pitchers don’t work out.
by BlindSquirrel on Feb 3, 2010 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
I meant “pear shaped” to mean he got injured then was never the same.
by BlindSquirrel on Feb 4, 2010 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
I’ve liked Gaby for a long time, and my instinct is to jump at the chance to get him. But I’m curious if anyone’s heard any negative scouting reports recently. His stock has plummeted in the last two years, but I’m not sure that’s warranted based on his numbers (including age), so I’m wondering if he’s lost velocity or something that would lead people to back off. Does anyone know?
Barring that, I think he’s a great pickup. He’s still very young, and his peripherals have never been bad, even in his last few years (once you normalize hr rate, anyway). I think Delwyn Young is the most expendable player on the 40-man, and I’d gladly replace him with Gaby.
I always wonder
about age of pitchers…Seems like a pitcher can get by with his age in comparison to Batters. and I think pitchers mature in the MLB A bit slower with the exception of a few outstanding pitchers.
Is age too big of a thing to worry about with pitchers?
I wonder the same
Most of the age stuff I see relates to hitting development. I think you start to see some loss of velocity in the early 30s, but I’m not sure that pitchers are as likely to trail off in performance. Although maybe injury risk becomes the dominant narrative moreso than the skill deterioration that you see in certain types of hitter.
Worth A Shot
If he’s healthy I’d bring him in, but only if Vasquez is the player who gets DFA’d. Perhaps a change of scenery will help him get back on track.
It’s time for the Pirates to join the major leagues and swallow a contract when need be.
out of curiosity
Why do you think D Young is more valuable than Vazquez? I would have dropped DYoung before Steven Jackson, and I can’t figure out what NH is hanging onto him for. Possible trade value?
i d think
his bat has more value as a pinch hitter… not so much a defensive replacement…. I like him more than others, though, and would drop Vazquez before him
+1
I know D Young is not the next Barry Bonds, but doesn’t he at least have some pop in his bat? If Vazquez gets all of it, we likely have a gap-shot that gets cut off and turned into a long single.
Now I’m sure someone will actually look up stats and prove that Vazquez has more power than D Young….
We’re stuck with Ramon because the Pirates gave him a bizarre 2 year contract based on a year’s worth of decent surface numbers greatly aided by the Texas launch pad. Also, as noted below, Crosby and Cedeno are very injury prone, plus Argenis Diaz makes Luis Cruz and Brian Bixler look like Honus Wagner and Alex Rodriguez at this point.
by Adam Reynolds on Feb 2, 2010 9:55 PM EST up reply actions
Gaby Hernandez
I think we have too much clutter in the bull pen already. Alot of these guys are overage and alot seem to draw the same comment (He has an inconsistent pitch but when he is on etc, etc) There still are no movers and shakers in the pen. And I standby my previous
post that all this money for maybe type pitchers would be better spent on fewer pitchers but better quality. The way they keep filling up the minors would make you think there is
more money to be made in the minors.
All 30 teams invite a bunch of bullpen NRIs to spring training each year. The Bucs are just doing what every other team also does by stacking up potential relief arms. There needs to be quality depth because injuries happen. We brought in quality relievers Dotel and Donnelly this year.
by Adam Reynolds on Feb 3, 2010 1:12 AM EST up reply actions
I don't understand the point your are trying to make...
can you please clarify. If Hernandez were picked up it would be on a minor league deal in hopes that we could resurrect his career as a starter. What I don’t understand though is your comments on the bullpen and the minors and I would appreciate you clarifying if you don’t mind.
Just curious.....
Which “fewer pitchers but better quality” would you spend the $6-9 million on to help the bullpen? I’ll be shocked if you can come up with a list that makes any sense.
Given how well Meek and Veal have worked out
I’m willing to give the staff a little more leeway on fixing failed pitching prospects…I’d say it would be worth dropping Delwyn to see what we can get out of Hernandez, he has a higher ceiling than DY does so its worth the risk to me.
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Feb 3, 2010 11:38 AM EST reply actions
I loved.....
and still do love the Meek and Veal pickups and have supported their development from the get go, with much gnashing of teeth from others on this site along the way.
But, Meek has really only had a few good months before he got hurt at the end of the year and Veal is headed to Indy to work as a starter after only starting to look good with his command in the AFL. So, the story has clearly yet to be written. But, those are exactly the type of guys the Bucs need to take chances on and keep around even if it means losing a few extra games along the way the past two years. Now there are two more potentially valuable arms in the system at the cost of $100K. Good stuff.
Gaby Hernandez
I guess I wasn’t thinking about him going straight to the minors. It just seems Neil has
grabbed every pitcher that was out there, and at some point you have to say enough already . Coaches only have so much time so the more pitchers means less time for each one. I thought “fewer pitchers better quality” was self explanitary. I don’t know all the
pitchers that were out there, it just seems to reason you would try to only pick the best and not spend money on the lesser quality ones. If I want transport I would try to get the best car
available for the money I had. Claggett is a good example, now were stuck with him or do
you think we can get something for him?
The reason it isn't self-explanatory...
…is that you need to have 20-25 ML-caliber-or-slightly-below pitchers in order to field a full team in Pittsburgh and another in Indy (plus some more staff-fillers for the low-leverage spots in Altoona). As such, the choice isn’t between innings/instructional time for Hernandez and innings/instructional time for a top-of-the-line pitcher. It’s between innings/instructional time for Hernandez and innings/instructional time for some random organizational player.
Claggett is going to compete for a bullpen spot during spring training. If he plays well, he’ll make the ML roster. If he doesn’t, he’ll soak up some bullpen innings at AAA, which is a job that would need to be done whether we had Claggett in the organization or not.
Gaby Hernandez
I didn;t realize the minor leagues was that short on pitchers. Have the minors been neglected that much? Are minor league teams self sustaining or do they rely on ML money?.
Have the minors been neglected that much?
You might not have met him- allow me to introduce you to Mr. Dave Littlefield (No. 6 on the list in that page, and probably deserves a higher spot)
Why do you think the major league team has been as bad as it has been in the recent past?
From the article Burgher King linked to:
Going from Cam Bonifay to Dave Littlefield as your GM is like getting over a raging case of whooping cough, only to learn you have leprosy.
We're responsible for filling the rosters...
…of all our minor-league affiliates. We provide the players, and assign them to the teams.
Ordinarily, teams can fill the majority of their affiliates’ roster spots by promoting from within. Since Ed Creech (Littlefield’s scouting director) did such a terrible job in the draft, however, the players taken 3-5 years ago who should have been filling our roster spots at AA and AAA had mostly washed out of baseball by the time they got to A-ball. As such, we have to go outside the organization for most of those spots now.
For example, there were 34 different guys who pitched for Indianapolis (our AAA affiliate) at one point or another last year. How many of them do you think were originally drafted/signed and developed by us? Five: Dave Davidson, Tom Gorzelanny, Brad Lincoln, Ian Snell, and Jeff Sues. Everyone else was either a trade acquisition or a free agent signing. And Davidson, Gorzelanny, and Snell were all gone by the end of the year.
Anyhow, that’s why we have so many NRI pitchers in camp. One or two of these guys are going to win bullpen spots in spring training, and the others are going to spend the year in Indy or Altoona. [I should also note that there’s a certain amount of this with any MLB franchise – they all sign at least a few extra arms to stash in the minors, in case of injury or ineffectiveness from the guys on the bottom end of their ML roster. For example, the Yankees signed Zach Segovia and Royce Ring to minor league deals a couple of weeks ago.]
Imagine what would have happened if the Pirates hadn’t focused mainly on pitching in the draft while DL was GM . . . .
by WTM on Feb 4, 2010 9:05 AM EST up reply actions
That just sent a chill down my spine...
That’s the irony of the whole damn thing is that is draft philosophy was basically built around pitching 1st. Acquire enough depth to fill the holes you need down the road. Now we have no pitching depth…check that…we have no depth anywhere (pre NH anyway).
And the position player list is almost as bad...
27 position players at Indy (not counting Doumit and Wilson on rehab). And the list of those that came entirely through the system…Cutch…Pearce…Bixler…Walker and Shelby Ford. Bixler is already gone…Ford will be lucky to make the Indy roster this year…and most people want Pearce and Walker gone. That leaves Cutch…who will never play another game at Indy…unless it’s on injury rehab.
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