2010 Pirates Draft Preview
Excellent preview of the upcoming draft from the Pirates' perspective. Includes detailed account of (Scouting Director) Greg Smith's drafting history, analysis of the Pirates' recent draft strategy, and speculation about what the Bucs might do in this year's draft.
about 2 years ago
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One more note on the 09 draft: Keith Law’s Top 100 the other day had Tony Sanchez as the 82nd best, and what surprised me looking back was only two first round picks below us were ranked significantly higher (Matzek, 22 and S. Miller, 38) and three were only slightly above (Leake 72, Scheppers 78, Turner 80). Baseball America had Tony in the late 20s or 30s, but as of right now at least one analyst (Law) would put our selection about 8th (including Ackley/Strasburg).
In 2010, the best-available strategy might be more viable again as it was in 08, since as Andy Seiler points out we should be on the board with a nice major league ready pitcher like Ranaudo or Pomeranz available. Lower risk than a high schooler, but still a high ceiling with those guys from what I can tell.
I must admit...
…that if they punt their first-rounder again this year, Colon and Sale do seem like the kinds of players they might tend to settle on.
The more I study this draft...
the more envision Colon as the 1st pick. I personally don’t think he is a #2 pick but I didn’t think Sanchez was a #4 either. I think we will see a similar strategy to last year unless this year’s Dustin Ackley emerges.
I really, really hope they take Taillon
There’s a lot of possibility at #2, but I love everything I see about the guy. Renaudo doesn’t really do it for me, and, unless they plan to chase high-upside prep players all the way through the draft, I don’t want them to waste the pick on Colon.
i think it may have been somewhere else, but I think Andy Seiler in the linked article mentioned that Ranaudo might be looking for a $5M type contract. If the Pirates like him, I think they take him, if his demands are in that range.
We’ll have to see how things pan out, but right now, I think Colon might not be a very good pick there, though. We’ll see…
Also, didn’t NH say there was money they weren’t using on FAs? I wouldn’t be surprised if it was being saved to go in the $12-13M range in the draft, or perhaps more, if they feel an exorbitant asking price from Harper is merited. I know we’ve spoken about draft budgets being different from the major league payroll, but I don’t totally buy it. If there’s a sudden spike, the money has to come from somewhere…
$5M isn't crazy at #2.
Particularly if it’s asking price, rather than minimum acceptable price.
Probably comes down to how much they like him at year’s end.
its not
thats why i said if the pirates like him, they ll take him at that price…
given boras, i doubt its gonna happen, but …
I meant that's the minimum it might take.
It’s probably reasonable to expect a 4 year/$5.5-6 million contract, perhaps with $3.5-4 million in the form of a signing bonus. That’s an inflation-adjusted Jeremy Guthrie-like deal, which is probably what Boras is looking for.
Taillon
What would Taillon be looking for, around $6m or more like $10m? Taillon looks like an absolute stud, but then again so did Mark Prior, but still, I want to pay to see Taillon pitch, Ranaudo doesn’t excite me as much
by OpiateOfTheMasses on Feb 5, 2010 3:44 PM EST reply actions
If you're drafting based purely on name....
I think you have to go with Deck McGuire. That name is straight out of a movie.
After what appears to be back-to-back successful drafts,
I feel confident that the Pirates will draft in 2010 using a strategy that enables them to get the maximum number of talents into the organization, regardless of whether they draft the biggest name available in the first round.
I believe they would have drafted Strasburg or Ackley, if given the chance in 2009. However, if they had done so, would they have been able financially to follow the same later-round strategy of stockpiling expensive HS arms?
But if they believe Bryce Harper or someone else is worth it in 2010, so be it.
I believe we won’t see a repeat of the 2007 draft fiasco as long as NH/FC are in charge.
I remain optimistic that in a few years we will look back at both the 2008 and 2009 drafts as providing the backbone of a productive farm system for years to come.
I never knew much about Smith's draft history
and this was pretty well-documented, so big-ups to the guy who wrote it.
I never knew Smith was the one behind Verlander, Granderson and Zumaya. Granted, so many others washed out, but Verlander is a front-line starter, Granderson is still a very good offensive talent and Zumaya had great stuff before his elbow injury (correct me if I’m wrong about the elbow part).
It’s my opinion they will probably keep a pretty open board going in. If Harper is available, I think they’ll take him. If not, then they’ll make a Sanchez-type move and spread the wealth. Good news is we’ve seen one of each scenario so far, so we at least know what to expect either way.
Best part is, with a sizeable draft budget that we’ve seen in the past couple years, they have the flexibility to go with either strategy. And either way, it will be money well spent… at least, in theory.
"Straight ball I hit very much, but curveball, bats are afraid." - Pedro Cerrano
I can see Nutting allowing a $15-20 mm draft based on the present team payroll. It may be what NH has in mind (it may not just as easily).
I see it as a solid strategy.
What is wrong with getting a high dollar guy AND drafting high $ guys high scholl guys in later rounds?
If it was my coin it is the easiest way to further populate the system.
If that were to be the case
I’d be all for that, too. Best of both worlds.
Of course, the yinzers would start to complain that he’s doing that to avoid putting money into the MLB payroll. It was enough that even Bob Pompeani called the Pirates spending the most on the draft the past 2 seasons “a facade.”
Hey, I wonder if we can fax a copy of Ross Ohlendorf’s thesis to KDKA and the Post-Gazette…
"Straight ball I hit very much, but curveball, bats are afraid." - Pedro Cerrano
Pompeani said that...
Because he has the intelligence of a stick of chewing gum. If someone were to send him a copy of Ohlendorf’s thesis, he would probably end up using it for his chair at the kitchen table in lieu of a phone book.
I was trying to find
His Twitter post from Deadline Day saying that Doumit was about to be traded to Florida, but of course the weasel deleted it.
Very hard to judge Smith’s draft history. He hit big on a few picks, but he also had some pretty dismal drafts and some awful first round selections. The thing you don’t know is how much Randy Smith, one of the worst GMs of modern times, interfered.
Greg Smith seemed hot for college pitchers in the first round in Detroit, but it appears he’s gotten away from that.
by WTM on Feb 6, 2010 5:50 PM EST up reply actions
That answers that question
I was trying to figure out that if Greg Smith had done a fairly decent job drafting, then whey had they spent so much in free agency, and why hadn’t we heard from any of these other guys?
Thanks for clearing that up.
"Straight ball I hit very much, but curveball, bats are afraid." - Pedro Cerrano
Nobody spends that much money on the draft.
It’s a great way to get the wrath of the commissioner’s office down on you like a ton of bricks. And it’d either encourage teams like the Yankees to break slot to an extent that we could never hope to match, or it’d lead to hard slotting by pick in the next round of the CBA, totally killing our strategy of spending late on tough signs.
2011
Might be the better bet to spend $15M…that draft is looking loaded. Also, as a side note, if Iwamura is solid this year, would he be a Type A free agent? Just curious if that is part of the strategy for 2011 given it may be a deep draft — if he is good, they can offer him and he either takes it or leaves and they get a pick.
I've been researching...
a lot of scouting reports and watching as much video as I can find on the draft prospects for this season. My early prediction is that Bryce Brentz will be this year’s Ackley as the top offensive performer to separate himself from the pack. That doesn’t include JUCO. Still don’t know what to make of Harper yet. He is holding is own and has two HR’s so far. So many question marks though for the money he’ll be seeking that I believe he’ll have to put up monster numbers to truly solidify the #1 spot in the draft. My sleeper for this year is Rick Hague the SS out of Rice. I think he may be the #1 SS prospect on the board by the time the draft rolls around. Nothing against Colon I just think Hague can take a step forward this year offensively and with his better glove and range at short it would give him a clear edge.
I think Harper will go #1 regardless of his numbers. They’ll realize he’s 17 playing college competition, and his power is unreal…no one is a finished product at that age. Its going to be years before he actually reaches the bigs, and he’ll have to work on some things, but the potential looks monstrous.
Hague sounds really intriguing…he could vault up big-time if his bat comes around or he could stay on the 2nd/3rd range if it doesn’t. It sounds like now he has contact issues…if he does fall, I’d love to see the Bucs take him because it appears as if he’s the real deal at short. I think you’re right too, about Brentz making the Ackley-like leap. Should be interesting to see how this all shakes out.
by NastyNate82 on Feb 15, 2010 12:38 AM EST up reply actions
The big difference between Ackley and Brentz...
…is that Ackley was an up-the-middle player (projected as a 2B/CF) playing 1B while he rehabbed from an injury, while Brentz is a corner player on defensive merit.
Nice bat, though.
I read that for this season Brentz is moving to CF. I imagine this might be an attempt to enhance his value, but he really sounds like a corner guy only. The other thing I wonder about Brentz is him beating up on slightly lesser competition than a major conference guy like Ackley. Either way, he’s pretty intriguing.
He played some CF last year too.
But unfortunately, he did it kind of the way Bobby Bonilla played third base: Definitionally only.
Ah the old “he fields with his bat” type of guy. A lot like Pat Burrell, I believe. I kind of wonder if that is an apt comparison for what type of player Brentz might be.
From what I've read...
…Brentz isn’t a butcher, just a fairly pedestrian RF/1B with the glove. It reduces your margin for error if he doesn’t hit, but it’s not like you ever pick a guy planning to misread his level of ability, do you?
I agree with what that...
except most reports from what I have found expect him to be above average in RF. The belief is that once he gives up pitching and focusses on a position he is atheletic enought to make the necessarry adjustments.
Correct
And, even if he doesn’t really have ideal range as an outfielder, his arm is supposed to be lethal and would almost make it seem like a waste if you had to move him to first. Pat Burrell got me thinking…who are among the worst outfielders you ever saw? Lonnie Smith comes to mind…Bill James cites Greg Luzinski as the worst he ever saw. I believe Glenallen Hill was referred to as a Catch-22 outfielder: as in, if you hit him 100 fly balls, he’ll catch 22 of them.
Hnm, good question.
Brad Eldred (unsurprisingly) looked pretty clueless out there when they gave him some OF work back in ‘07. As did Todd Hundley in ’98. And Lonnie Smith is certainly a worthy contender – I love Bill James’s description of his defense in the NHBA.
The guy who I remember as having the lowest ratio of defensive ability to athletic talent is unquestionably Alex Sanchez. Great speed, but he’d get distracted out there like a little leaguer, and he had shaky hands and no ability to judge the trajectory of flyballs whatsoever.
Couple memories of bad individual defensive plays: One time, I saw Rob Mackowiak (learning CF on the fly) misplay a fairly standard fly ball at the wall into a triple for Tom Lampkin (a 38-year-old backup catcher with no functional knees, slower than grim death). He jumped into the wall about five feet to the right of where it actually came down, smacked the back of his head flush, and knocked himself silly. Another time, Matt Lawton (playing RF – a tragedy with his noodle arm) misread a fly ball that was over his head, got a late break backwards, turned to the left, turned to the right, turned back to the left, tripped over his own feet, fell ass over teakettle, and missed getting hit square in the face by about three inches.
Found the Lampkin game, in case anyone's interested.
Oh, and I almost forgot: Anyone else remember Brant Brown’s brief trial as our everyday CF? Yeeks.
Not an outfielder...
But I’m from NY and got to watch Jason Giambi’s ongoing war with first base. Several years ago, on Opening Night, I saw A-Rod make a great running throw on what was essentially a swinging bunt. He throws to Giambi who drops it because he fell over…stretching for the throw. I’ve never seen anyone fall over stretching.
For present day, Ryan Braun is up there as far as cluelessness. I never checked UZR or any defensive metrics on him, but two years ago, I was in the left field bleachers and I was watching the outfielders. Cameron is in center and obviously given his talent, he knew what he was doing, positioning himself, always ready. And then there’s Braun in LF, practicing his swing, spitting in his glove, not paying attention. He really looked like a little leaguer. I’ve also seen him hold the glove up on a play back at the track (against the Cubs, I think) and have the ball drop 5 feet to the right of him.
For one specific incident, nothing beats Manny Ramirez playing cut-off man on Johnny Damon’s throw from center several years go. I believe it resulted in an inside-the-park homer. One of the funniest, if not most bizarre things I’ve ever seen.
regarding Luzinski
he had very little range, but didn’t butcher what he got to. Was displaced by ‘Skates’ Lonnie Smith. Speaking of Phillies of that era, I’ll take Sarge Matthews. No fly ball was routine for him. Less rang than Soriano, but just as unpredictable. No arm to boot.
Mickey Rivers and Juan Pierre for Venus De Milo (No arm) award.
My favorite play of all time
Damon throwing from the left-center gap, and Manny diving to cut off the throw in shallow left-center.
Sorry, that link's down
Man, I really wanted to watch that again.
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