Roster transition
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 6, 2010 11:37 PM EST
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PrintI don't know about you guys, but I'm really getting anxious for baseball season to start, and inparticulary Pirate season. I have high hopes of .500 baseball this year from this team. Sadly, I was just reminded this weekend with all this snow how close, but how far away we still are. To pass the time I just wanted to know who you guys truthfully think will fill out our 25 man roster for our Monday afternoon opener. It's not as clear cut as years past as management has brought in alot of guys for competition this year. Also I'd like to know what you guys thought the lineup will look like this September as the season winds down, and into next year....here are my thoughts.
Opening Day
- CF McCutchen
- 2B Iwamura
- RF Jones
- C Doumit
- LF Milledge
- 1B Clement
- 3B LaRoche
- SS Cedeno
Bench: C Jaramillo, INF Vasquez, OF/1B Church, OF Raynor
Rotation: 1. Maholm 2. Ohlendorf 3. Duke 4. Morton 5. Hart
Bullpen: Karstens, Carrasco, Donnelly, Meek, Lopez, Cotts, Hanrahan, Dotel
End of the year/2011 Opening Day lineup (what I think will happen)
- CF McCutchen (posts .400 OBP, more SB)
- LF Milledge (hits for high avg., more SB)
- 3B Alvarez (becomes our best power threat, high K rate)
- 1B Clement (develops power, leads team in RBI)
- RF Tabata (perfect 5 hole hitter, high avg., some power, good RBI guy)
- C Doumit (does'nt have cleanup hitter power, bridges gap to Sanchez)
- 2B LaRoche (high OBP, develops more power, smooth transition to 2B)
- SS Cedeno (good glove, OK bat)
Rotation: 1. Maholm 2. Morton 3. Lincoln 4. Ohlendorf 5. Hart
I think Duke, G. Jones, Iwamura, and Dotel all get traded at the deadline for pitching prospects, and I don't really see any upcoming free agents that would interest the Pirates, but it's too far off to know. Maybe it'll be the year we go after a top of the rotation starter, but I highly doubt it (e.g Josh Beckett, Erik Bedard, Cliff Lee, Brandon Webb, and Jeff Francis will all be FAs)
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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Good Post
I could see that it unfolding like this.
I am excited for spring training to start. With the 25 inches of snow I woke up to on my front walk today I say bring on the spring!
"I choose to gamble with my life
Twice the risk, four times the prize
Nothing knocks me over"
by lighthouse913 on Feb 7, 2010 1:53 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Yes . . .
when Fusilli is not ranting about Neil Walker, I generally enjoy reading his material.
haha
I was thinking about starting another thread on Neil, but have been advised otherwise.
My ranting about Neil Walker was put to bed really quick. I really thought he was actually starting to catch on at the end of last year, but I was obvisouly wrong. I think the fact they brought him up, and gave him unconsistant ABs actually was worse than just not calling him up at all. At this point all we can hope for is Neil starts at AAA, and learns a bunch of positions, and becomes a super Util. guy, but it’s highly unlikely.
I’ve been waiting for him to get traded for awhile now, and am starting to get kind’ve confused on what they have planned for him this year? I’m imagining there having a hard time getting anyone to give up anything at all for him, but how long has Neil been on the 40 man roster? Is he out of options after this year? Has anyone heard yet where he’ll play in Indy?
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 7, 2010 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
If it's Jones Vs Clement
Then I doubt management would deal Jones. Clement is younger by 2 years, but he seems to be like Ryan Doumit, with all the injury threats. All this will probably mean nothing, because I doubt that both will perform well enough for us to have this “problem”. And to add to that, trading Jones would outrage so many fans that it would probably not be worth it.
eh
I would agree with you, but your basing this off of a half a year for Jones. Obvisouly if he continue to hits like he did last year he won’t be going anywhere, but I highly doubt that happens; I don’t think he’ll completely flame out like others do. I think his power stay there, but avg./OBP fall way down, and without a true position he becomes expendable to a contender willing to overpay for him.
I think Clement has the much higher upside even at being 2 years younger. Hearing from people close to Clement, and around the league they all say he has a great attitude, and thats perfect for a position change. I think he does OK at firstbase defensively, but ultimately he stays healthy, and his bat gets consistant at bats.
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 7, 2010 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty Much Agree
I agree with your start of the season, but not the end.
-Jones stays in the OF and Tabata stays in AAA.
-LaRoche move to 2B is a 2011 move.
I agree Duke and Dotel get “flipped”
I agree the LaRoche move is probably a 2011 move, so he can work at it all off season, but if management does’nt think re-signing Iwamura is wise, and he is dealt to a contender at the deadline chances are we are out of contention, and LaRoche may learn on the fly at secondbase with little to no pressure…
But if Jones is’nt dealt this year, and Tabata proves hes ready for a promotion like McCutchen did this year; how do you see it playing out? If Clement locks down the first base job which he very well could, and Jones is blocking Tabata something has to happen. Jones may stick around till the end of the year, but Tabata makes the team out of spring training. With that being said Jones could be dealt in the offseason.
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 7, 2010 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
INF Vasquez
Aargh. Probably inevitable, though. I hit the no-hit UT player thing. Delwyn at least might hit.
I’m not big on Hart. Well, actually, I think he’s awful as a starter. He’d have far more potential in the ’pen.
I’m hoping we’ll see D’Arnaud in some sort of role by early 2011.
I agree with you on Vasquez, but with his contract and often being referred to as a leader in the clubhouse I think hes a lock on the bench. Plus his ability to play more positions than Crosby, although Crosbys bat is probably better; gives Vasquez the nod. Delwyns a switch hitter as well which would be really nice off the bench late in games.
Ya I’m not big on Hart either, but between him, and McCutchen I’ll take Hart. I like McCutchens command, but I think Hart has alot better stuff (velocity, movement)
I personally don’t think we’ll ever see D’Arnaud in any kind of significant role in Pittsburgh…solid player though…
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 7, 2010 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
no way they carry 4 on the bench and 8 in the pen
cotts wont be there at the start, of course…
and karstens is iffy…
impossible to predict end of the year roster, of course!
any reason why they would’nt carry 4 on the bench, and 8 in the pen?
Why could’nt Cotts make the team out of spring training? I know hes just a non-roster invitee, but he may be one of the most proven relievers on our roster, and the fact he may be the only Lefty in the pen. I would think that Cotts would be there before Lopez would…
Karstens is iffy, but he pitched well out of the pen last year, and has proven somewhat reliable as a starter, so I could see him as a spot starter throughout the year. I mainly like him in the long relief role, or “mop up duty” where he can pitch long innings of relief; maybe even keep the Pirates in a few games for a late come back.
And, yes; close to impossible to predict end of the year roster…
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 7, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
too many players would need to be let go
Crosby, DY, Vazquez, Jaramillo, Moss, Raynor at least are competing for the bench, if you assume Church starts in RF, Jones at 1B and Clement in 3A to start the season.
I d guess Moss/Raynor goes, the rest stay on. Crosby and Jaramillo are locks imo. Probably Vazquez too, though I d like to see Vazquez go before DY.
Teams don’t carry 8 in the pen anyway, and no particular reason to do so this time round.
I think Cotts had TJ recently and is pretty much out for the first half?
Theres no way Crosby, Vasquez, and Young all make the team. I can’t even see Crosby, and Vasquez both making it. Only way I see Crosby making the team is as a starter. The only locks I see are Jaramilo, Church, and Vasquez. I too would like to see DY over Vasquez, but it won’t happen. I like Raynor, because of his speed, ability to play CF, and higher upside over Moss, and even Brandon Jones over Moss, because of his higher power upside. Only way I like Moss is as a starter with consistant at bats. Another year of consistant ABs I think Moss could turn it around, but I know its highly unlikely management will give him consistant ABs, again.
Teams with a shaky staff like ours carry 8 in the pen, or should carry 8 in the pen, I mean. But I was unaware that it was abnormal for teams to carry 8 relievers.
I was aslo unaware that Cotts recently had TJ surgery, so in that case yes Cotts will not make the team. I know situational lefties are overrated in this league, but you gotta have atleast 1 lefty in the pen. At this point we could end up having none if Lopez continues to pitch the same.
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 7, 2010 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
Crosby is the backup SS.
Vasquez can’t play the position anymore, and unless you think Doug Bernier or Argenis Diaz are going to beat him out in spring training (doubtful), there aren’t any other SS options on the roster.
I don’t really see any power upside for Jones. He has a .107 ISO in 166 ML PA, to go with a .138 ISO in AAA last year and a .145 ISO at the same level the year before that. He hasn’t hit for even modest power since 2007, and at three months younger than Moss, it’s not like he’s got a big edge on the age curve, either. Moss, for all his failings, did at least have a reasonable power season in 2008.
If Lopez “continues to pitch the same”, he’ll make the team with ease, insofar as he was strong at AAA last year (3.18 ERA and 1.21 WHIP) and strong in the majors for the two years before that. That more than counterbalances the tiny rough stretch in late April/early May that got him bumped from the roster.
I doubt they trade Jones
I think if Jones and Clement are both mashing and Clement is doing well defensively, Tabata will stay in AAA. However, I would be kind of surprised if Clement doesn’t spend some time this year in AAA with Tabata coming up to replace him.
I could see a scenario where Tabata comes up if Clement is’nt producing. But if Clement, and Jones are producing in Pittsburgh, and Tabata mashing in AAA I don’t see any other scenario than us shopping Jones much like McClouth this past year. No one saw that one coming…
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 7, 2010 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
If Jones is producing like a 4+ WAR player again, I just don’t see how you trade him. McLouth wasn’t that.
There’s another scenario, and that is that Milledge might be traded to make room for Tabata. This seems to make more sense to me because Tabata and Milledge are probably going to be similar players, and there have been questions about the power potential of the Pirates’ corner OFs if both Tabata and Milledge are manning the corners.
Plus, Milledge already has 2+ years of service time, whereas Jones has 0+.
I’m curious what leads you to believe that Jones is a true 4 WAR player, which would place him in the top 25 among all NL hitters. CHONE has him at 1.8, which sounds about right to me…I see him as an average regular or maybe a little better. 2-2.5 seems more realistic based on his minor league production.
I hope you’re right, it just seems like a pretty optimistic projection.
I’ve laid out my defense of Jones many times, but in a nutshell…
He has shown gradual improvement over the last 3 to 4 seasons with his K rate, BB rate and BA which culminated with the 2009 season. I don’t see his 2009 season as an outlier because it is the current zenith of gradual improvement. If he were 24, there would be no question as to his projection. He might even get better, but I am predicting a regression to .372 wOBA.
The changes he’s made seem to be mental adjustments and increased perception, which are skills that absolutely can and do normally get better in one’s mid to late 20s. I myself experienced this in a marked and substantial way.
From what I saw with my own 2 eyes, Jones was able to adjust to pitchers’ changes in approach to him. If he had a poor game, he came back, refocused, and adjusted to a new way of pitching him within a very short period of time.
Jones does have weakness, like a difficulty in catching up to serious high heat, but there aren’t enough pitchers in the league who can take advantage of his weaknesses to cause him major problems when looking at a season of production.
As for career minor league numbers, they are useless to me. All that matters is the skill level a player has at a given moment, not what they did 7 years ago. To me, Jones clearly has the tools and ability to be a 4+ WAR player.
We’ll see if I’m right or not.
I agree with you that if Jones keep at his production at that high of a rate then no he will not be shopped, but if Jones cools off which I think we all know he will he’ll still be a good player, but at that point yes he would be at the same level as McClouth.
But if Jones keeps hitting at the rate he did last year then it would be wise to shop Milledge to make room for Tabata. If you were to suggest Jones play left field though; I would not agree with that scenario. I think Jones has just enough range to cover right field no way does he cover left especially at home.
I like the fact that were in this situation, but I’m also worried about how management deals with it. They’ve already shown the ability to pull the trigger on a trade even if its not popular with the fans. I can see it happening again in about 4 months…
Also, yes Milledge, and Tabata are similar hitters without much power, but I think they would be very affective in the same lineup. Powers not everything; we can win without hitting a ton of homeruns…
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 7, 2010 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
I failed to mention the fact that I think Milledge, and Tabata will both develop more power this year…
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 7, 2010 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
I also think both Milledge and Tabata will show more power eventually – I look for Milledge to hit around 18 in 2010, but I think Tabata would be around 10 or less right now.
My guess is Milledge can be around a .350 wOBA player, which is around McLouth level. But I think Milledge will show better defense than McLouth and add at least a win there.
I guess our disagreement is in how much Jones might regress. My guess is that he will regress from a .396 hitter to about .372. That is still better than McLouth.
I agree Jones should be in right if he’s playing outfield.
I do not understand this.
I think you are irrationally in love with G Jones, Mark. Dismissing minor league numbers as “useless” in comparison to a 358 PA ML sample is a sign of this. Jones was barely a 4-WAR player in an obvious outlier season last year (or a 2-win player, if you believe Rally), and it takes some serious optimism to think he can continue at that pace.I think you’re in for some disappointment. A .372 wOBA would be about .280/.350/.520. Other than last year in the majors, he’s only hit for that much power once and he’s never walked that much. I just don’t see it. And even if he does that, he’d need above-average defense to be a 4-win player.
But as you say, we’ll see if you’re right or not.
I didn’t say I think minor league numbers are useless, I just that career minor league numbers are useless. Averaging production over a long period of time just doesn’t seem to be a good way of predicting what the next year will bring. You are including years which have little to do with the current skills of the player. Trends are a much better way of predicting performance.
Jones has a very strong trend of increasing all the skills needed to be a good hitter. He might get better, stay the same, get slightly worse or get a lot worse.
Given those 4 outcomes, I think my view that he will get slightly worse is more realistic than the view that he will get a lot worse.
It would be different if I didn’t see that he had lowered his K rate every year in AAA for the last several years. His K rate also slightly increased once he got into MLB, which is exactly what I would expect.
Also, it is wrong to say Jones was barely a 4 WAR player in 2009 (assuming you are projecting his half season over 6 months). In fact, Jones’ 2.6 WAR in exactly 3 months would obviously be 5+ WAR in 6 months.
But, look closer and you’ll see that Jones had a -7.9 UZR in OF and a +2.4 at 1B. So, if Jones had played 1B for the whole 3 months he was in MLB, that would have added about 1 win even when figuring in the positional adjustment.
That means that if Jones would have played as he did at 1B those 6 months, he would have accumulated about 3.5 WAR in 6 months… a 7 WAR pace.
Now, of course, it’s ridiculous to say that Jones was a 7 WAR player last year, but when you put it in those terms, it’s not outrageous to say that he could or should be worth 4 WAR next year – especially if he ends up at 1B, which is entirley possible.
by MarkInDallas on Feb 7, 2010 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with Mark
In the 4 possible scenarios that surround G. Jones coming into the season I think it will be that he regresses, but only slightly. Jones set the bar so high last year that even if he regresses he will still be a above average player.
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 7, 2010 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
You're incorrect about most of this, Mark.
While it is true that Garrett lowered his k rate in each of his AAA years, that is hardly the only important skill for a hitter, and it is not true that he “increased all the skills needed to be a good hitter.” I’m not sure which skills you are referring to, exactly, but his walk rate shows no consistent improvement, and was actually at its worst in AAA in 2009. His ISO was consistently within .010 points of .200 in his 5 AAA seasons. Again, other than his k rates, there is no trend of improvement in the AAA numbers.
You could say that his BA, OBA, and SLG show a consistent upward trend, but the latter two trend upwards because the former does, not because his on-base skills improve or because his power did. And while his BA improved in part because of his improving contact numbers, it also improved in part because of improving BAbips. But there’s nothing to suggest that this is because of better BAbip skills on Jones’s part (fairly steady LD% [except for 2009, which is too small a sample to be evidence of anything, especially considering it reverted back to its normal rate in the majors] and steady ISO).
Furthermore, the idea that getting “slightly worse” is more realistic than getting “a lot worse” is misleading, because you’re making the assumption that his .396 wOBA in 358 ML PAs is his true talent, and thus the level from which he would slightly or greatly regress. But that’s not true. It would be just as accurate to call his 2009 AAA MLE (.260/.294/.409) his true talent, in which case you’re saying he’ll get a lot better, while almost everyone else is saying he’ll get slightly better. If you put it that way, you’re definitely the one who’s being unrealistic. But of course neither half of his season is his true talent, which is why I reject the premise of the four outcomes you propose for Jones. I do not know whether he will be better or worse in 2010 than he was in 2009, but the evidence suggests that he will perform significantly worse in 2010 than he did in the majors in 2009.
Thirdly, it is true that Jones had 2.6 WAR in 82 games and 358 PAs last year, according to fangraphs. If you consider 700 PA a full season, then yes, he would have been a 5-win player last year. But few players get 700 PA, so it’s misleading to suggest that Jones was a 5-win player. If you extrapolate to 600 PA, he would have 4.4 WAR. Maybe “barely a 4-win player” is misleading, but it is far more accurate than “5+ WAR.”
But you’ll note that fangraphs is not the only available WAR figure, and as I pointed out, Rally valued Jones’s 2009 at only 1.1 WAR. Extrapolated to 600 PAs, that’s not even 2 WAR.
Finally, you are figuring his defensive contribution all wrong. First of all, his UZR/150 was -7.9 in the OF and +2.4 at 1b, but his actual UZRs were only -2.7 and +.5 respectively. Secondly, the positional adjustment for the corner OF spots is -7.5 runs and at 1b it is -12.5, so the difference between -7.9 in the OF and +2.4 at 1b is only 5.3 runs (-7.9-7.5=-15.4 runs in the OF and 2.4-12.5=-10.1 runs at 1b; 15.4-10.1=5.3). That means that in 600 PA at 1b, Jones would have been a 4.9 WAR player instead of a 4.4 WAR player last year. Not 7. He is not even close to being a 7-WAR player.
When you put it in those (correct) terms, no, it’s not ridiculous to suggest that he could be a 4-WAR player next year. But it is very, very unlikely. He would have to hit like he did last year or hit the .372 wOBA you project and also play very good defense. There is no reason to suspect that he will do any of those things.
Sorry about that – I read from the wrong column on the UZR. I guess I might have been a bit distracted by the Superbowl. :-)
I guess we will just have to see about who is right as the season progresses. You make a lot of valid points as well.
I should have gone to check my exact notes from when I was studying Jones’ numbers from months back. Now that you mention the walks, I do remember that was the weak issue.
Generally, I see hitting as divided into 3 skills: plate discipline, making contact, and contact quality.
I see plate discipline as represented by OBP and BB:PA. Jones generally had a very bad OBP earlier in his AAA career and finally worked it up to .350 level. Normally, I would like that OBP number to be in the .360-.370 range to be confident they have the tools to excel in MLB. So, as Jones raised his OBP to .370, this might be red flag that this aspect of his hitting skills might be in for a tumble.
On making contact, I look at K:AB rate, because the more you put the ball in play when you don’t walk, the more chance you have at a higher BA. At some point there is a tipping point where you don’t put the ball in play enough for your quality contact to matter. If you are already near the limit of that in AAA, then chances are you could struggle in MLB. For power hitters, I like to see the K:AB rate at around 20%, and Jones did gradually decrease his K rate to 20% in AAA.
On quality contact, I look at batting average. I like to see an average near .300 for power hitters. Jones increased his BA from .240 level to .307 in AAA.
So, is this just my theory of how you can spot a good hitter? Yes. It’s mine. I invented it. So, like a lot of theories, it might prove incorrect. I haven’t done the kind of bulk testing of the theory to see how it does against MLE. But I’ve done a good amount of hand testing it, and I like the results it’s given me so far.
Like I said, numbers for Jones that I will be eyeing in 2010 is his OBP and BB:PA, because plate discipline is one aspect of his hitting where I was skeptical going into his time in MLB and he did show significantly better performance there once he got into MLB. I tend to think this might be because he did not lose focus as much in MLB, whereas he has said that was a problem with him in the past.
I guess we’ll just see who is correct as the season progresses. If I’m wrong and Jones falls apart, I’ll be more that happy to say I was wrong. Well, I won’t be too happy, but I’ll say I was wrong anyway.
My theory, that I have, which is to say it is mine, is mine.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Feb 8, 2010 4:52 AM EST up reply actions
Your method for evaluating hitters is interesting to me because it explains a lot about why you like certain players. It’s clear now why you’re so optimistic about Milledge and Tabata (and Jones), for instance, and why you’re (relatively) pessimistic about Alvarez. At the same time, it’s very clear where we differ in our analyses and why. I’m optimistic about Milledge and Alvarez, and pessimistic about Tabata and Jones, mostly because I place a lot of weight on LD%, walk rate, and ISO (in addition to k rate) and barely look at BA or OBA at all. I suspect we’ll have a lot of disagreements in the future because of this, but it makes for interesting conversation.
When I look at LD% and ISO, I look at those in the context of what would be a good target number for K:AB rate and BA.
BA is important to me because I see it as still the best indicator of quality contact that we have. Once hit f/x data becomes available for all minor league parks that may change. I think there is going to be a huge shift in thinking once hit f/x is in wide use.
For a power hitter, I like to see a K rate of around 20% and BA around .300 in AAA. For a line drive hitter, I want a K rate of around 10% and a BA of .330 in AAA.
As such, I don’t see Tabata as ready quite yet because I want to see him hit .330 for a couple of months this year. I do think he will be able to do that. Destroying AFL pitching was a good sign as it seems to be somewhere between the AA and AAA level.
On the other hand, Alvarez’s stint in USA baseball was worrisome because his K rate was so high against pitching that is probably equivalent to AFL pitching. I’m interested to see if his new body helps him out at all.
Does anyone have the splits of Jones hitting on the road, and at PNC? Could PNC be a possible explanation for his outburst? I’ve never heard it mentioned before, but for years people have been naming every lefty batter as the one to benefit from PNC park; is Jones who finally benefited?
And say Alvarez comes up, and continues his high K rate which he has shown no reason he won’t; How many homeruns will he have to hit to offset all the Ks? I personally think he can be as affective if not more so than Ryan Howard. Howard has averaged 44 HR, .374 OBP, and a 33% K rate since coming into the league in 04-05. While I don’t think Alvarez will average 44 HR a year I think he can average 30-35 HR, post a higher OBP, and lower K rate. Defense out of the picture I think Alvarez will be a more productive hitter than Ryan Howard.
Yes, while playing for team USA his K rate was high, but he also had multiple multi home run games including a 3 HR day if I remember correctly. My question is if he comes up, and continues that in Pittsburgh will you give him a pass on the Ks if he hits HRs at a 30-35 per/year average for the next 5 years?
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 8, 2010 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
If he hits 35 HRs and those are his only hits of the year, no, he doesn’t get a pass.
It’s really going to be determined by if his K rate increases any further in MLB and if he can make good contact when he’s not hitting HRs.
Howard is the example of someone who didn’t let the higher level of pitching explode his Ks. Alvarez may or may not be like him at this point.
not his only hits
No, I did’nt mean those would be his only hits, but if over 500 ABs Alvarez kept up his pace of about 25% K rate, and Howard kept up his of 35% that would mean about 50 +/- a few less strikeouts for Alvarez. Would you take 50 less strikeouts, and 10 less homeruns, or 50 more, and 10 more?
Howards career line of .280/.375/.385 is on par with what I expect out of Alvarez; meaning he will get his share of walks, base hits, and doubles. I just expect less strikeouts, but less home runs; albeit a few though.
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 8, 2010 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
If Alvarez has a 25% K rate
I think he will be a great hitter. But I think that’s optimistic right now.
The MLE on Jones's 2009 at AAA...
…is something like a .700 OPS.
I can see and appreciate that he’s made some small gains at AAA the last few years, but none of what you’ve said explains why he’d suddenly take a quantum leap forward once he got on the plane from Indy to Pittsburgh.
The two guys I'd most like to see traded
are G Jones and Ohlendorf. I know I’m in the minority in my opinions on these two, but I don’t think either of them belong in the Pirates’ long-term plans. In fact, the time to trade both of them is this offseason, as neither is likely to improve on last year’s performance, but the fans would obviously be even more furious than they are if NH traded 2009’s best hitter and pitcher.
Anyway, I’ve said this before, so I’ll keep it brief: both players are past their prime and coming off of extreme outlier seasons. There’s no reason to believe they will be nearly as good going forward, and at their respective ages, it’s unlikely they’ll be important pieces on a successful Pirates team. My personal hope is that they both play over their heads again for the first couple months of 2010 and then get dealt, making room for Lincoln and Church/B Jones/Moss. (I’m personally not optimistic about Tabata being ready for the majors by June/July, and since we control Church for 2011 anyway, why not delay Tabata’s arb-clock by waiting till May/June 2011?)
Anyway, in response to the original post, I see the opening day lineup as you have it, though I suspect the bench will be Jaramillo, Vazquez, Church, Crosby, and Moss (maybe Raynor instead of Moss). I expect No Relation to win the fifth starter’s spot and Hart to move to the bullpen or start in AAA. I’d guess they’ll go with a seven-man bullpen, with Hart or Jackson instead of Karstens and Cotts.
By the end of the year, I have no idea. Too many different things could happen.
I'm not sure how you see Ohlendorf as being past his prime
He’s 27. And I think it’s early to say his first full season in the majors is an “outlier.” I understand that his ERA outperformed his peripherals, but even a serviceable starter with 5 years of control (or is it 4?) has a lot of value to a team like the Pirates.
As for Jones, I don’t think anyone’s expecting him to perform like he did last year, but he can still be an effective hitter. And other teams recognize that as well, so I don’t think his trade value would be that of a 40 HR hitter.
yeah
i think if you shopped them right now, you wouldn’t get a lot of value…
At the same time, its worth taking a couple of flyers, you know make the call and see what they say… like call the Giants and offer Jones for Bumgarner
I agree on Ohlendorf not being past his prime. He’s 27; the bench mark where most pitchers take off. I think Ohlendorf has’nt even begin to show what hes capable of. Hes a true power pitch, and hes also very smart; very rare, and good attributes for a starting pitcher. Alot of people forget he was never really given a real chance in New York, or else he probably would’ve been more established before coming to Pittsburgh. He was a top prospect in their organization for awhile.
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 7, 2010 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know about this.
Ohlendorf’s career 6.12 k/9 doesn’t suggest “true power pitcher” to me. Also, I’m not sure it’s true that most pitchers take off at 27. Most good pitchers are already established by that point, I think. here is a study that finds that pitchers peak at 26, meaning 27 is already on the downslope.
I think people who are expecting Ohlendorf and G Jones to be good players for 2010 and the future are setting themselves up for some serious disappointment, but only time will tell.
I did’nt mean power pitcher in the sense that he strikes a ton of guys out, but in the sense that he throws hard, and attacks batters. Also the fact that he seems to be very durable…
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 7, 2010 7:47 PM EST up reply actions
The Pirates need to find their Chris Carpenter.
Ohlendorf might be that guy. I don’t think there’s any harm in trying to find out if he can be that guy.
It’s true his FIP didn’t change after his delivery change, but his tRA post-change was .7 runs lower than before that. The disparity there was due to the fact he gave up more homers per fly ball.
So, I guess we’ll just have to see whether he can keep moving forward. I don’t think the final verdict on him is written yet.
by MarkInDallas on Feb 7, 2010 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
Mark, I would love to make some wagers with you concerning the futures of Garrett Jones and Ross Ohlendorf. If Jones ever has a full season (450+ PA) of .360 wOBA or better or Ohlendorf ever has a full season (150+ IP) with an ERA of 4 or lower, I will buy you a beer the next time I’m in Dallas.
Not to nitpick or take sides...
because I tend to agree with your take on Jones, but didn’t Ohlendorf just have a season like the one you suggest? Are you simply saying you don’t see that happening again?
I don't see anything that Ohlendorf and Carpenter have in common...
…other than stuff like “choice of occupation”.
I have a bad feeling . . .
that Ohlendorf just isn’t particularly good. This feeling is based on his low K rate, affinity for giving up home runs and his pedestrian BB rate. He really isn’t good, and, in some cases, is bad, at the things pitchers have control over. Probably a back of the rotation starter/long-reliever.
Agreed on Jones, but I’m still not following you that Ohlendorf shouldn’t be as good in 2010. He should be better, IMO Ohlie had an xFIP of 4.63 last year, it was his first full season as a starter, he had a better second half than the first (regarding both velocity and peripheral stats), and pitchers don’t follow the aging curve like hitters where they peak at 27-28 and decline soon thereafter. As a bonus, he’s an intelligent and hard-working player. Taking this evidence into account, I’d expect that Ohlie’s xFIP should be a bit lower than last seasons, in the 4.40 range give or take a bit (I’m not concerned about ERA, which isn’t tied as much to performance).
As far as whether Jones or Ohlendorf should be traded, it all hinges on how much interest there is. If teams are willing to put B grade prospects on the table (or the equivalent young MLB talent), then we’ll have to listen. If the offers are down to grade C talent, then we won’t trade them just to trade them. If I had to guess on the demand for either one, then I imagine it isn’t very high and that GMs around the league aren’t buying Jones’ performance or Ohlendorf’s ERA as their true talent.
Jones’ performance should be worse than 2009, but Ross’ performance could well be as good or better than 2009 even though the ERA likely won’t reflect it.
by Adam Reynolds on Feb 8, 2010 3:55 AM EST up reply actions
What about Morton?
I’m taking that the consensus on Ohlendorf is that he will regress to a mid-to-high 4 ERA, and will not be as affective as last year. While I don’t think that will happen it would not surprise me if it did. I think Ohlendorf gets better, and improves on his stats from last year although slightly.
I’m curious though as to what everyone thinks Mortons numbers will look like at the end of the year? If you noticed in my predictions I have Mortons as the #4 guy going into the year, but by years end/start of next year I think he will be viewed as our #2 guy barring any trades/FAs. Bill James has him at 6.75 K/9, and a 3.97 ERA for 2010; I think these numbers are accurate, and could actually be better. I think the ERA is accurate based on our defense, but I think he could improve to a high 7, or break the 8s in K/9 once he learns how to throw first pitch strikes, and can truely utilize his change, and breaking ball. Barring any defensive let downs, or lack of run scoring I think Morton can win 15 games this year; while I don’t think anyone will agree with me completely what do you guys think?
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 8, 2010 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
I think Morton might be our best pitcher in 2010. As always with him, it’s a question of throwing strikes and staying focused.
I too . . .
think Morton might be our best pitcher in 2010. In fact, I think he will be.
Morton might be overrated going into 2010. His record of free passes is shaky from 06-08. He was able to cut down on the walks last year and translate that fairly well to the Bigs, but he has to keep focus to continue to be fairly effective or even improve in 2010.
Maholm is better at walks and ground balls, so I’d pick him to do better than Morton by a little bit next year.
By the end of the year, I’d look for a rotation (in order of effectiveness) of
1. Maholm
2. Morton
3. Ohlendorf
4. McCutchen
5. Lincoln
by Adam Reynolds on Feb 9, 2010 4:22 AM EST up reply actions
I can agree with that
I think McCutchens success depends more on our defense than any of our other pitchers. With his control walks are’nt going to be an issue, but you also know he is’nt going to strike alot of batters out, so its going to come down to alot of balls are going to be put into play, and hes going to rely heavily on our defense. With that being said I can see him being affective this year..
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 9, 2010 5:24 AM EST up reply actions
My guess on the likely trades are Duke, Iwamura, Donnelly or Dotel, and Moss/Church/Delwyn. Not too much going on. I’d put Maholm and Doumit (the bigger pieces) at 50/50, where they might need close to a McLouth-type package of two or three of their favorite prospects to get a deal going.
Jones/Clement won’t make much of a deal because if Clement doesn’t hit well then he’ll go back to AAA, and if Jones doesn’t play well then he won’t have any trade value to begin with. If they both hit well, then they’ll both stay on-board for at least the rest of the season.
You forgot Crosby...
but other than that, pretty close. I think they have to carry Vazquez because otherwise Crosby would be your only backup for 2B, SS and 3B. I’d like to see them keep Pearce to play RF or 1B against LHP but that’s probably not going to happen.
I did’nt forget Crosby…I believe he was only brought in to create competition for Cedeno, so he does’nt get handed the job; which has happened way to much for the Pirates. At the same time I think Cedeno wins the job, and has a decent year in Pittsburgh. Either way I think the loser of the starting job does’nt make the team considering Vasquez will be on the bench, and can play shortstop. No need for 3 shortstops…
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 7, 2010 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
Vazquez can't play shortstop.
His numbers there were awful last year, and the Pirates cut his PT at the position as the year went on.
I’m not suggesting we break with only one backup infielder, and I don’t think a backup shortstop would get 40-50 starts throughout a year barring injury. I think it’d be more like 20-25 starts, and I don’t see us keeping Crosby around to make 20-25 starts. Vasquez can be suitable for that many starts; plus he can play other positions in the infield while Crosby has not. Also, DY is also much more versatile, and has a better bat than Crosby. I really don’t see any scenario where they take Crosby over Vasquez, or Young, but maybe it’s possible they take all 3; highly unlikely though.
Crosby will make the team IMO...
because we have no other backup options at SS. Vasquez cannot play SS and Crosby is a plus defender. Crosby also played 3B and 1B last year so he has the versatility as well. I also expect Crosby to be our starting SS before the All-star break. I have absolutely no confidence in Cedeneo becoming an average regular. I think his batting line will be close to Crosby’s so we would benefit from having the better glove on the field.
And the only way DY gets the "versatility" nod over Crosby...
is because he plays OF. And by “play” OF I mean he can stand in the OF while weating a glove and breathing. He’s less horrible in the OF than he is in the IF but that isn’t saying much. DY does offer the better bat of the two but I don’t think his bat is enough to offset his poor defense.
Agreed. Crosby is much more versatile than Young in the infield, since he’s played 3B, SS and 1B. No reason he couldn’t play 2B if needed as well. Young’s a better hitter but not so much that it outweighs his bad defense. I really don’t see DY making the team this year.
I think they go with a 5-man bench: Jaramillo, Crosby, Vazquez, Church and Raynor or Moss. Would love to see Pearce get that last spot to play RF/1B against LHP but they’ll probably go with Raynor or Moss to back up CF.
Crosby might be able to compete with Cedenos bat, because they both will be below .300 OBP, but I think Cedeno is a much better fielder. He showed us last year that hes got great range. Fangraphs has him rated as a -1.0 fielder, and Crosby at a -7.0. To call Crosby a better fielder is a reach.
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 7, 2010 11:38 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure where you’re getting your numbers. When I look at Fangraphs it says Cedeno was -3.6 at SS last year and -5.6 for his career in UZR/150. Crosby only played 26 innings at SS last year but he’s +4.1 UZR/150 for his career so he’s probably the better fielder.
They will both get the chance to play some this year.
Who says Crosby can't play other IF positions?
He’s played significant amounts of 3B, 1B, and 2B in his career, which are really the only places you might want to use your UT IF.
I was unaware that he logged time at any other position than shortstop; I apologize. On the teams site they have him listed as a “firstbasemen” for whatever reason? If thats the case then Crosby has a better shot at making the team than I first thought. Everyone seems to really like Crosby on this board; how come no one is picking him to win the starting job though? If he has the edge devensively he very well could come into spring training, hit, and win the starting job. I don’t think either Cedeno, or Crosby have had to compete for a job before; should be interesting.
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 8, 2010 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
I can't speak for anyone else...
…but I think he’s unlikely to win the starting job because he’s a pretty lousy hitter, and while his glove is good, it’s not exceptionally so.
But if they truly make it an open competition in spring training, I guess anything can happen in three weeks.
Begining of 2010
1. McCutchen CF
2. Iwamura
3. G Jones RF
4. Doumit C
5. An. LaRoche 3B
6. Milledge LF
7. Clement 1B
8. Cedeno SS (i do like crosby better though)
Bench: C Jaramillo, OF Church, INF Crosby, INF Vazquez, OF Raynor
Rotation: 1 Duke, 2 Maholm, 3 Ohlendorf, 4 Morton, 5 Hart
Bullpen: Dotel (closer), Donnelly (set-up), J Lopez, Carrasacco, Meek, Hanrahan, Jakubauskas
End of the year/ 2011 Team:
1. McCutchen CF
2. Milledge LF
3. Tabata RF
4. Alvarez 3B
5. Clement 1B
6. LaRoche 2B
7. Doumit C
8. Cedeno SS (sadly 1 more year)
Rotation: 1 Lincoln, 2 Ohlendorf, 3 Morton, 4 Daniel McCutchen, 5 Hart
Top Prospects:
Tim Alderson, SP
Tony Sanchez C
Starling Marte OF
Rudy Owens SP
Zack Von Rosenberg SP
Gorkys Hernandez OF
I think we’ll try to trade Maholm, Duke, Garret Jones, Dotel, Donnelly, Lopez, Steve Pearce, Neil Walker, Moss, Delwyn Young, Church and Iwamura for top-of-the-line Pitching prospects, shortstop prospects and/or 2B prospects
by 2010 will be the year on Feb 8, 2010 9:38 AM EST reply actions
Lincoln
I think putting lincoln as the number one in one year is a little more than optimistic…he’s a solid young prospect but I don’t think he’s ace material, or even going to be better than Ohlendorf/Morton for that matter…
by smokedpretzels on Feb 8, 2010 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
only differences I see is where you have Clement batting in the order, and your thoughts on Donnelly being the 8th inning guy. I personally think Hanrahan will be the 8th inning guy, and the closer by the end of the year. Donnelly I’m afraid will have trouble making the team, and staying on the roster, but it was a good insurance pick up that could possibly turn out to be a bargain if hes suitable in later innings.
I also notice your rotation going into next year appears to be in shambles. I think saying Lincoln will be in the majors at the end of the year is being optimistic, but no way will he be a #1 guy. He was rated out of college as a ace of the rotation guy, but as of right now he is a ways away from that title. Also I don’t think theres any way we go into a season in which we are projected to compete with both McCutchen, and Hart in our rotation. Also I don’t think theres anyway we trade both Duke, and Maholm; one will stay if not both. My geuss is though; Duke regresses again, and is shipped off for not much in return.
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 8, 2010 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
given that these guys have a guaranteed salary
they are virtual locks to make the team.
these guys = church, donnelly, dotel, crosby. Each of them would have to implode in a big way to be off the roster by opening day. Vazquez also fits that mold, and is therefore likely to be on the team, unless the team has to give up a potentially valuable piece to accommodate him. Donnelly isn’t under that kind of competition, and to be fair, he has been a pretty decent pitcher the last couple of years.
2010 opening day line-up
mCutchen cf
doumit-c
laroche-3b
jones-1b
church-lf
millege-lf
aki-2b- some times flip flops with doumit
crosby-cedeno-ss
oledorf
mahlom
duke
morton
mCcutchen
deadline trade- doumit and duke for prospects also aki and church for prospects
clutch-cf
laroche-2b
jones-1b
alverez-3b
millege-lf
tabata-rf
jarmillo-c
crosby-ss
oredorf
malholm
morton
lincoln
anderson
also lopez and marte are sept. callups.
after deadline line-up
'position flex-ability, yea baby' austin powers
haha
this post cracked me up for 3 reasons..
1. You called Ohlendorf, “oledorf” in your first mentioning of him, and then “oredorf” in your second, LOL. I think we found some nicknames for Ross.
2. You have Ryan Doumit hitting in the 2 hole to start the year off; that will be the last person on our roster to hit in the 2 hole.
3. You have “anderson” listed as our fifth starter come September; who are you referring to?
Other than that I think you agree on the consensus of where everyone will be, and the positions they will be playing. One other thing that jumped out to me was how high you had LaRoche hitting to start the year. He did lead the team in RBIs last year, but the 3 hole is usually reserved for a teams best hitter. Do you really think Laroche will be our best hitter? Or hit for enough power to bat 3rd? I like Laroche, but think he will be more affective lower in the lineup, because he has developed some good patience at the plate.
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 8, 2010 7:52 PM EST up reply actions
"aki-2b- some times flip flops with doumit"
I know what you meant, but I got a big smile on my face imagining Doumit trying to turn two with Cedeno.
so sorry
alderson 5th starter, I will have cutch sealing a lot so doumit can sit on dead red fast balls, on larocheI will give 50 60 games to hit 3rd , than when alverez comes up, I can move him if he’s not hitting. and I stand by my spelling of olindorf.
'position flex-ability, yea baby' austin powers
ah
I should’ve known that you meant Alderson, but for some reason could’nt think of who you meant. I understand your theory about Doumit, but I think Aki is a virtual lock as the number 2 hitter. I know one thing though; I really do hope Laroche hits like a number 3 hitter this year…
by FusilliJerry88 on Feb 9, 2010 5:26 AM EST up reply actions
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