Brad Lincoln
by smokedpretzels on Feb 8, 2010 1:32 PM EST
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I'd like to get al of your opinions on what kind of player Brad Lincoln is acutally going to become. I have to admit that I got really excited when I saw the numbers he put up during his stint at Altoona this year, but was pretty disappoined by his performance in Indianapolis. I know it was his first time seeing any action at that stage but do the signs point to him recovering this year and ultimately becoming a top of the rotation starter or will he simply become another one of our "Good as a third in the rotation" guys?
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the latter
but that’s still a valuable piece
Exactly
We know that Lincoln has two above average pitches, a fastball in the 90s with good life and a curveball that breaks big and late. He’s got good control, but needs better command, as too many pitches catch too much of the plate. He also needs a better changeup, to keep lefties honest. At Indy he had a 4.36 FIP versus LHB and a 3.51 FIP versus RHB. How much of this will he accomplish in 2010? Dunno, but whatever his ceiling is, he will be a useful addition to the PBC.
By the way, he will improve the offense. He batted .308 last season.
Viva Clemente!
I'm uninterested...
…in whether a guy is going to become a #2 or a #4 or whatever. If you get a group of five or six fans together, and you ask them to describe a #2 starter, you’ll get at least three different definitions. As such, since there isn’t even a shared language for the discussion, it inevitably leads to a relatively unproductive debate.
The question isn’t so much as debating whether he’s going to be a #2 or #4, I guess I worded it poorly but I’m concerned that he just isn’t the ace prospect that a lot of people seem to think he is, and I was wondering what others thought on the matter. It’s not neccessarily a debating point but rather a way to see where other people are in their opinions.
by smokedpretzels on Feb 8, 2010 7:13 PM EST up reply actions
#3-5 Starter
His curveball sounds like it’s good. He still has a solid fastball, but his control isn’t that great. If he was on the Yankees or Sox, people would be saying HOF for sure, but he’s a Pirate… so nobody is really drooling over him, and #3 is probably a stretch.
But imagine if he starts pitching like Tim Lincecum… wait, that’s not a very good thing to say :(
http://www.points2shop.com/?ref=GJS867
I'm pretty sure
he’s always had very good control. Even in his return from injury year he wasn’t walking many
Well, from what I’ve seen, and heard Lincoln still does’nt have the stuff to become a staff ace or #2 guy. He has a great fastball, and curveball, but does not have a good changeup which really hurts him. His low K/9 stats so far in the minors suggest he does’nt miss bats often, and that usually translates bad in the majors. Although his stuff is still to good for him not to make an impact in the majors. I think you’ll see him throw alot more changeups, and strike more batters out which in turn will get him the call to Pittsburgh. I see him as a #3 guy long term…
The changeup is the key
His numbers spiked in AAA because he was throwing it more often, but still learning how to master it. I think the important part of how soon he makes the jump is whether or not he can master it enough to throw it when he needs it.
He’s got the fastball and the power curve, but the changeup is what helps keep batters off-balance.
"Straight ball I hit very much, but curveball, bats are afraid." - Pedro Cerrano
I think he plays out as a league-average starter.
Those guys are awesome to have around when you’re paying them 500k. Very useful piece in the Pirates’ future.
while its awesome
a rotation filled with average pitchers does nothing but prolong medicore play. To be a winner in baseall the formula is clear, have a strong rotation. You need an Ace and a #2 guy to go out there and give you the best chance of winning every 5th day, not: one bad start, one good start, etc…
Average starting pitchers have a lot of value. It’s nice to have an ace, but a solid rotation from top to bottom is better than a top heavy, shallow one. The Rays didn’t have a dominant starter in 2008, just a bunch of 3.5-4.5 ERA guys. If we can do that and put some decent offense on the field, we can at least have a winning season.
charity standing orders
Not to be coy . . .
but you win by scoring more runs than your opponent. Whether that be by having dominant run-prevention abilities or by having dominant run scoring abilities; there’s more than one way to skin a cat and, while it helps because it obviously makes you better at preventing runs, you don’t necessarily need an ace or whatever to win. Further, having a league average starter making 500k is awesome, as if they were to be obtained on the market you’re probably looking at paying 7 million per season or so, whatever the exchange rate is at that time. So, if my feeling about Lincoln is correct, he’d allow us an extra 6.5 million or so to upgrade either our run scoring or run prevention.
so you are telling me
that come playoff time, the series is on the line, you are ok handing the ball to a #3-4 rotation type guy to go against a dominating opposing pitcher? Sorry but ill take CC/Burnett, Hernandez/Lee, Lackey/Beckett, Halliday/Hamels, Johnson/Nolasco, Carpenter/Wainwright….anyday over a rotation that is average.
Average Starters
If you have a rotation full of #3 guys, you’ll be competitive in the regular season…but if you get to the playoffs and you’re going up against Wainwright/Carpenter or any of those other combos, I’d put my money on those guys. The other issue is, you can really enhance the value of those average guys if you build a spectacular defense and make them look better than they really are—how well did Jarrod Washburn do last year once he didn’t have Franklin Gutierrez?
While the larger point about playoff performance is worth considering...
…I think we might be getting a little bit ahead of ourselves.
but thats the point
to look at the larger picture. while i want to just get some wins now i dont want to be slighty above average for 4 years and then be losers again for another 20 years, i want to have a fighting shot at a world series by year 3 and 4, and to do that you need a dominate pitcher/pitchers at the top of the rotation
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