It's Time for Lastings Milledge to Produce
by Charlie Wilmoth on Mar 16, 2010 2:10 AM EDT
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PrintThe discourse surrounding Lastings Milledge has always been interesting. When he was with the Mets, it was about how he was a star talent who lacked maturity and (shocker!) swore in a rap song (NSFW). When he was with the Nationals, it turned darker, because he was on the same team with Elijah Dukes, who is a bona-fide lunatic, and so it became easy to lump Milledge in with a guy who left his wife a death threat via voicemail even though Milledge was really nothing like him.
Now that Milledge is with the Pirates, the press surrounding him has turned kinder, which is fair, since he's worked hard and hasn't done anything stupid since the Bucs traded for him. This new piece about him in the Post-Gazette is nice--a story about how he's growing up and doing the little things right. As Spring Training stories go, this one is cool, because it does a nice job explaining a somewhat arcane bit of baseball strategy. And it isn't fair to set the bar for these sorts of human interest Spring Training stories particularly high, because there's no meaningful baseball going on. There's little to talk about, in this case, other than Milledge's attitude and his willingness to work and such, even if it's hard to tell how those things might end up affecting the Pirates' wins and losses. I speak from personal experience here--March is a really hard time to be a baseball writer.
The tone of the discourse really is interesting, though, because such a small percentage of the writing about Milledge since he was drafted has focused on the actual baseball player. This was unfortunate for him when he was with his two previous teams, but it may have actually become beneficial to him now. Would it be crazy to point out that he was not that good for the Pirates last year? That however much he may have worked hard and said the right things, he still only posted a .729 OPS? He did a lot right--certainly his defense bore little relationship to the way his fielding is typically described by Nats and Mets fans. And all other things being equal, it's surely better to have the well-behaved, disciplined Milledge than the one the Nats and Mets had. But I'd gladly take some antics--even a pottymouthed rap song or two!--if he were to start hitting like the star talent he's supposed to be.
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I’d really like to see him use all of his five tools and the ones that people don’t know about. If Cutch and Legend continue from last year, we’d have a great outfield that would rival the glory half season of Bay/McLouth/Nady.
"Baseball is better than football. Think about it, eighty degrees, a cold beer and a short-sleeve shirt is better than 30 degrees, a hip flask and six layers of clothes under a lap blanket. Take your pick: suntan or frostbite. " - Thomas Boswell
This year will be telling
I hold out a lot of hope. I believe that the talent is there and that there may have been some extenuating circumstances last year (an injury of some sort, just can’t remember what exactly). This year will be very important for him, as Tabata’s arrival isn’t too far off. The jury is still out on whether Tabata will end up meeting the lofty expectations for him, but supposing he comes up and is given a starting job that means that one of either Milledge or Jones is going to have to move or sit down. For Jones, moving to first base is a possibility but for Milledge it would be the bench.
This year will be interesting. I feel pretty good about the possibility of having a pretty productive outfield.
Power?
Was that considered something he had/has or something that may develop? I really wonder now if Lastings will hit for anything resembling power at this point (he has one XBH all of spring and grand total of 29 HRs in 1117 ABs in MLB). If he doesn’t hit more than 10 or 11 HRs, can he make up for it with doubles (Bill James has him in 2010 with 11 HRs but 30 2Bs).
My recollection
As a Mets fan is that he was supposed to have Cutch-like power – not a lot, but definitely there. It seems clear he won’t reach his once-projected upside, but, as you say, if he can reach double-digit HRs with a good bunch of doubles, that would be fine (esp. if his defense plays well in PNC’s LF).
Why is it clear...
that he won’t reach his once-projected upside. He is dedicated for the 1st time in his life and receiving instruction that he has never received before. I’m actually excited to see what he can do this year. He had 14 HR’s two years ago then injured his hand last year which sapped his power. I wouldn’t right him off just yet. And as you say, double digit homers and a bunch of soubles puts his slugging in the .470 range, if he can do that and continue to play defense at last year’s level he still will be an upgrade from Morgan.
Cause I think he’s about done getting stronger (he’s 25 and pretty well filled out). Remember, his upside was superstar stuff, not “an upgrade from Nyjer Morgan.” I think if you asked the Mets what they thought his upside was in 2006, they’d have said a consistent 25 HR/45 2B/30+ SB with a solid average and defense. He may well have a season or two like that, but I think it’s his ceiling, not something he’ll go out and do every year.
More than happy to be proven wrong, and I think he has a decent chance to approach those numbers this season. I just think he’s going to settle in a notch or so below the 2006 expectations.
I agree with your assesment in the reply...
which is quite a bit different then saying he definitely won’t hit his ceiling. I think that has yet to be determined and I guess this season will go a long way to showing us that.
Keep in mind...
that 29 HR in 1117 AB is still about 15 a season.
As long as we’re talking about spring stats, I’ll take doubles power from L Millz as long as he keeps walking 16% of the time. I think the patience is a bigger question mark than the power.
On another note, he’s my favorite player ever and I subjectively predict an MVP-type season from him in 2010.
Guys usually don't start turning doubles into homers...
…until age 26/27. Lastings was only 24 last year.
(This is, incidentally, also one of the reasons I spent so much time this offseason stepping on the idea of Tabata coming straight to the majors.)
It's been studied pretty extensively.
First by Bill James in one of his early abstracts, and later (with improvements) by a bunch of other people. This and this are good places to start as far as age curves for hitters in general.
Different people set the bar in slightly different places, depending on exactly how they define their player sample (and specifically the issue of how to deal with marginal players who wash out of the bigs at a pre-peak age). I’ve generally found that 26/27 works pretty well for my purposes in the past, so that’s what I use.
A good rule of thumb is that for normal hitters (i.e. not extreme slap-and-dash types), doubles now are often a leading indicator of home runs later.
What's the arcane bit of strategy?
Hitting behind the runner?
I thought I was going to learn something I didn’t know.
Anyway, Lastings is the one guy on the team right now that I’m most interested in watching develop this year, for all the reasons you state (with Andy second).
Lineup
I know there’ve been threads for this, but I’m bringing it up because DK mentions it in his morning post. The following lineup would not depress me, although it would take everyone maxing his potential for it to be actually better than average.
Aki
Milledge
Cutch
Jones
Doumit
Clement
LaRoche
Cedeno
It’s not hard to imagine all of those guys fitting those slots well, although I feel pretty certain that at least 2 (and likely 4) will not. What’s depressing is that I have trouble imagining that group reaching even 100 HRs. Oh well.
don't worry
about Home Runs, they’re fun to watch, but what’s important is the runs scored by this lineup. What worries me about this offense is the OBP, at best I see maybe 5 guys with a .350 OBP, but 3 is more realistic.
Yes and No
I’m not a big HR guy at all, but OBP alone doesn’t get you far enough if no one is slugging – other than Milledge and Cutch, I’m not sure anyone in the lineup’s going to go much above 30 2B either.
But you’re certainly right that 120 solo HRs don’t help us much.
weird
i was just reading an article somewhat related and it seems to disagree. i’ll let you read the whole thing for yourself but here’s the money stats:
More Times on Base: 1880 wins, 393 losses, .827 winning percentage (Also: 157 ties).
More Home Runs: 1250 wins, 414 losses, .751 winning percentage (Also: 766 ties).
that’s a pretty significant margin. granted it’s only for 2009 but i’d be willing to be that it’s closer to the rule than the exception.
Conversely
More Total Bases: 1926 wins, 347 losses, .847 winning percentage (Also: 157 ties).
So home runs aren’t very important, but slugging as a whole is important in general, which was the point I think JRoth was trying to make.
Thanks
To both of you; that’s good data. ryebread is right that I’m emphasizing SLG, not HR; I cited HR because we were talking about Milledge’s likely HR output upthread, so I was thinking about it (and when I mistakenly thought the starting 8 would be under 100, that was alarming).
Perhaps the biggest problem with the lineup we’re looking at is that it’s almost all middling, meaning that there’s no big jumps to be had from upgrading a position or two (in contrast with the starters in recent years, when going from our abysmal #5s to a decent #3 alone would be a big improvement, and adding an actual ace would represent a huge jump). Pedro for LaRoche may or may not be a massive jump, but if it is, it’ll be because Pedro’s an absolute stud, not because Andy’s awful (we hope). Same deal at nearly every position: we could squeeze out a win or two almost anywhere, but we’d have to add A-Rod or Mauer to really see a jump.
i definitely agree that both slugging and obp are important. once again OPS proves to be a telling stat. just wanted to make the point that HRs aren’t the only way to score runs.
our lineup is (as usual) full of great contributing pieces but no stars. there hasn’t been significant improvement at any position this offseason. i think management views this season as an opportunity to evaluate the talent they’ve gathered and see where the holes are.
I see them hitting 100 or more
Aki 5
Milledge 15
Cutch 15
Jones 25
Doumit 15
Clement 15 (or Pearce 10)
LaRoche 15
Cedeno 10
Bench and Pitchers 15
You’re probably right – I was basically chalking up Andy and Cedeno at a combined 15, which isn’t really fair. They’ll certainly get another handful off the bench (esp. with Church & Crosby, both of whom have a bit of pop, for bench guys) – I was restricting myself to the starting 8. But even there I was wrong – unless Doumit, Jones, and Clement all fall short, they’ll probably reach 100, if only just. Decent years from that core group, and we’re well above that.
All setting aside, of course, the 48 that Pedro will slug starting June 5.
I never understood..
Why everyone wants Cutch hitting 3rd. If 2 years down the road he is our #3 hitter, I would see that as a sign that our lineup is still very weak. Let’s say best case scenario, and this is probably a stretch, that he is hitting 20-25 homers a year. Having a leadoff hitter capable of doing this coupled with great spead and baserunning and a high OBP is a sign of a good team. Having to put this type of hitter in the 3 hole will mean that we still have no other pop in the lineup. Think of it as the Phillies having to hit Rollins 3rd because he hits 20+ homeruns per year. That would mean they don’t have the likes of Howard, Utley & Werth hitting behind him.
Now, I realize that at this time we dont have an Utley, Howard or Werth available but my feeling is, let Cutch stay in the leadoff spot because if, as we hope, we are competing in a few years, leadoff is where he will be hitting.
Let’s hope Cutch can fill the role of leadoff hitter with above average power as opposed to # 3 hitter with power that is below average!
by biglar33 on Mar 16, 2010 12:52 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
This has it right.
Cutch has maxim value in the lead-off spot. The pressure he can put on the battery has a domino effect down through the clean-up spot at least.
"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway
I want my best hitter in the three hole...
Right now that guys is Cutch. Two or three years from now that may not be the case.
This
I thought about whether I really wanted to throw Cutch into the 3-hole, for exactly the reasons biglar says. But the bottom line is that he’s a good hitter and a (potential) RBI machine – if someone other than Cedeno and Ohlie are batting ahead of him. And, if our cleanup guy is hitting decently, I love the idea of pitchers having to pitch to Cutch. Alternately, they pitch around him, he’s smart enough to take his walks, and he OBPs .400 while stealing 45 bases.
Even if it was Pujols?
He and Cutch are apples and oranges, but still.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
Why can't Mendy bust a long TD run? We could use it.
Milledge did about as well as I thought he would last year. It was hard to envision him crushing the ball with the injury he was fighting. This year, with ailments behind him, I envision a productive player who is 2nd or 3rd on the team in WAR. It’s no guarantee, but he has a whole year on someone like Andy LaRoche, and was considered a much better prospect with better tools. A breakout somewhat like Nate McLouth’s in 2008 seems realistic.
What he said.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Mar 16, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
on Adam, Slick1, and Vlad. He had 14 HR & 20+ SB two years ago before he got hurt. With him fully healthy and dedicated, if he could hit .290+ again with 15-20 HR, 25+ 2B, and 20+ SB this season I would be more than satisfied. (We also forget he had what should’ve been his 5th HR as a Bucco taken away from him when a game got rained out. It would’ve given his numbers a small, though insignificant bump.)
Also if he keeps the same approach with runners in scoring position going into the season, we could be looking at very impressive RBI numbers. That, of course, is highly contingent on whether or not more guys get into scoring position, but I digress…
"Straight ball I hit very much, but curveball, bats are afraid." - Pedro Cerrano
this is bad behavior???
seriously swearing in a rap song he’s not will smith he hasn’t raped 2 girls (allegedly) like another sports star in the burg or bought a house boat to sail off into the sunset of blind-sided a guy with his head down (love ya cookie)
dont write milledge off
im definitely more excited about lastings future than i am about tabata. milledge still has a lot of potental and i think that he can and will reach it if he stays healthy and that there is not a lot of pressure on him to be the guy. that pressure is on cutch. i think that if tabata does get a call up in mid june or july that jones should move to first and take clements spot because he is looking bad really bad this spring, point is that milledge deserves a full season to show us what he can do.
Years of Control
It’s come up before, but Milledge is likely to be short under our control, right? He first played in ‘06, which could mean we have him through ’12, but I can’t recall. Given our (relative) glut of OFs, I hope he hits like a stud for the next 240 games, gets traded for something really nice, and gets replaced with Superstarling Marte.
I wonder what Gorkys could do to fetch us some value in a trade. I don’t see him as an upgrade over Cutch, Milledge, Tabata, or Marte; that’s pretty far down the depth chart, and I’m not sure anyone will care if he plays OK, but not brilliantly, at AAA.
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