How Much Rope for Kevin Hart?
by JRoth95 on Mar 19, 2010 5:12 PM EDT
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PrintLet me get this out of the way first: all we've seen so far is half of Spring Training, and Kevin Hart could very well completely turn it around in the next 2 1/2 weeks or once the season starts. He would be far from the first. And of course I'm rooting for that.
That said: how long do you think the Pirates would put up with this kind of performance from him, and how long should they? Let's stipulate that he gets it at least somewhat together, with a WHIP under 2 in his last Grapefruit start or two, and that he's not completely imploding in his first regular season start or two. But that he's otherwise pretty bad - JVB bad, or Herrera bad.
Dejan Kovacevic said in his article yesterday that part of the organization's thinking is that, with days off in early April, he'll only start once or twice in the first few weeks, and he can work with Kerrigan in between starts. That sounds to me like he gets to at least May 1, so that he can have, say, 3 starts on normal rest. Is he on a short leash at that point? Or are they willing to let him struggle all the way to June? I don't really see why they would, given No Relation's evident competence (if not upside), but I sense that this is what the front office is thinking. I suspect they'll hang on to any shred of progress to justify letting him blow up every fifth day.
I'm just not sure why. I get his potential, surely, and I'm not saying give up on the guy. It's just not at all clear to me how it helps him to get shelled in Pittsburgh when it's his mechanics that are flawed (DK said his pre-game warmup the other day was a disaster as well). This isn't a guy who has dominated in AAA and needs to translate it at the major league level: it's a guy with 24 career starts in AAA (granted, good ones). I think his development is at much greater risk in Pittsburgh than in Indy.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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I think he will be on a short leash.
If he doesn’t turn it around after 3 starts or so, then DanMac will get his chance, and then Lincoln after that.
They will give him just enough rope to hang himself
at which point it will DanMac or Lincoln and if who ever gets the spot doesn’t get it done it will be the other guys chance
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throw strikes
first throw strikes ,second get people out. he will come north I like his stuff when he throws strikes.
I think
The rationale for perhaps keeping him on the MLB team when the season starts (even if he doesn’t turn it around) is because you want him to work with the guy who changed his mechanics in the first place to see if they can’t hammer the issues out.
That being said, I think they would give him 5 starts before sending him down if he struggled — or even makes the team.
Good point
On the continuity. I’d been thinking about coaching, and obviously Kerrigan is better/more trusted than whoever would be working with him in Indy, but more important is that it’s the same coach, because this motion is a work in progress.
McCutchen is and always has been the better pitcher, though I don’t have a problem with the Pirates investing in Hart’s upside, and Slizeezyc makes a good point about the possible benefits of continued work with Kerrigan. I have no idea what the Pirates will do, but I doubt they can justify keeping him around if he continues to pitch as poorly as he has so far this spring. Assuming, though, that he can at least manage to perform like he did last year, here’s what I’d do with him:
I’d keep him in the majors until the all-star break. If he looks decent by that point, I’d stick with him. If not, I’d send him down at that point, calling up Lincoln (if he looks ready) or McCutchen (if not) to take his spot. The reason I’d do it at the all-star break is that Hart has 1 year and 33 days of ML service time coming into the season, so if you send him down at the all-star break, you retain his services for all of 2011-2015 and (most likely) avoid super 2 arbitration with him. After the season you can re-evaluate, most likely moving him to the bullpen for 2011 (though there’s a possibility that they could trade Duke to open up a rotation spot if they want to give Hart another shot there).
That was more long-winded than I initially intended.
How much rope? How many walks?
If Hart were simply still 2009 Hart, with a poor walk rate, I’d say sure, give him until May to see how he goes with the adjusted mechanics. Right now though, he’s a train wreck. If he does not go 5 innings in one of these spring games, with 3 walks or less, I don’t think he’ll start the season in the rotation. Right now, I think he’s closer to going to extended spring training to work things out than to Indy. He has either lost any sense of his release point, or he has a complete lack of confidence, or both. If his side sessions are OK, I would think it’s not the release point. I don’t think the pen is an option either. Blass anyone?
Bottom line, I think the team will talk a good game for at least another start. Any longer is whistling past the graveyard.
I wouldn't be stunned...
for Hart to come down with a Rule 5 type minor injury that puts him on the DL to start the season so he stays with Kerrigan for a bit longer whilst DMcC gets a start or two. Either way, I don’t know why he would just be given a SP spot if he continues with these massive control issues.
Good day.
CALM DOWN
Everybody needs to relax and give Hart a break…I don’t care if we’re one game into spring training, or one game from the regular season, NONE OF IT MATTERS. As long as Hart says he’s happy with the way he’s throwing and getting his work in, I could care less about the results. If he pitches in the regular season and walks 10 batters in 3 innings, then sure all this drama is justified and I say let’s throw No Relation in there, but until Hart bombs in a real game, let’s just calm down and trust the Pirates, and Hart, know what they’re doing.
Benny Benack III
I would give him a few more spring starts to turn it around, but I don’t think he’s the front runner anymore.
When I think of Hart’s performance as a Pirate so far, I think of Brian Bixler in translation to a pitcher. It’s almost impossible to be worse than he’s been, and I don’t want to see Huntington keep giving him slack because he was part of a big trade.
MLB Trade Rumors
had him as a free agent as of 3/12 and speculated he might wait to sign midseason again. And you know, that’s not a bad strategy for him or for whichever team picks him up.
Maybe it wouldn’t work so well in baseball except for a pitcher, but let’s say you were an NHL or an NBA team with an aging superstar and an otherwise decent lineup, and you don’t have to be much more than decent in those leagues to make the playoffs, since half the teams get in. So why wear out your aging, creaky superstar — let’s call this guy “Mario” or “Shaq” — pretending he can play 70-80 games, or that he has to? Why not give that guy the first three months of the season off, then have him show up about February, work his way into the lineup, play the last 15-20 games or so hard and be reasonably fresh for a playoff run?
That seems to be what Pedro’s hit on (and Clemens before him, a little). If you’re only going to get 125 innings out of Pedro, why not concentrate those innings over three months in a playoff run than over six months and have him break down in August when you really need him?
Anyway, I’m not a proponent of veteranosity but I do get tired of seeing our No. 5 slot used as a cattle call every year.
Agreed
When Clemens did that a few years ago, I thought it might become a trend. It’s almost a little Favre-ian too. He doesn’t miss games, but why does he need to be in camp for 6 weeks? Most of these old guys are year to year anyway. If you still have something left, save it and shoot for the postseason with the team of your choice every year.
Exactly
I dislike Favre with the fire of 1,000 suns, I think he might be the biggest jerk in sports, but he obviously doesn’t need camp and more than one exhibition game to be ready to play. This may become even more obvious to veteran players as the concern about football concussions grows. Why waste your brain in games that don’t count?
I used to wonder why the Rangers didn’t make Nolan Ryan a closer after age 45 or so, ask him to pitch 2, 3 innings a week and just come in and rear back and throw gas. The guy was always in good shape, at 60-70 innings a year he might have pitched until he was 60.
I seem to recall back in the day some teams would keep an older starter around just to pitch Sundays (of course back in the day there were a lot more Sunday doubleheaders too). That probably wouldn’t work so well today, would mess with your regular rotation, just pointing out that there are other, creative ways of doing things than the five-man rotation/12-man staff everyone’s locked into now.
I also used to wonder if it wouldn’t be beneficial for baseball teams to build a week’s vacation into the season for the players (one at a time, obviously). Go home, see the wife and kids, remember you have a family, go fishing, relax, recharge. This was because (and it would take way too much time to do the actual research to support this) it sure seems like hitters often go on a tear as soon as they come off the DL. It would have the side benefit of keeping your bench players more involved, if they knew they’d regularly be getting a week’s worth of starts.
FWIW, BF comes to camp when he’s a part of the team. The skipping camp meme is a product of the media and haters. I’d say he’s the opposite of a jerk as well.
I do think that Favre's loyalty is questionable.
Look at Mark Chmura, for example.
Chmura’s not an angel here, but in general good people will stick by their friends when those friends are in trouble. Look at C.J. Nitkowski (as good a guy as there is in baseball) not backing away one inch from Brian McNamee.
"Skipping" camp
I don’t think bucdaddy or I said Favre skips camp. But he becomes “part of the team” on his terms. He held up GB until he was ready to accept a trade to the team of (basically) his choice. And he was a done deal in MIN last year, but just didn’t show up until he felt like it, after camp. I suppose jerk can be defined different ways, but he’s selfish and self-centered.
And a helluva warrior. But… the other stuff.
The CHONE projection does not paint a pretty picture.
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 20, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
If Hart continues the pitch the way he is now...
he’ll get the chance to work on his mechanics in Indy. He has an option so that won’t be an issue. As of right now, he has more upside than McCutchen, has completely reworked his mechanics and will be given until the end of spring to show that he is making progress. There in lies the key. If he shows some signs of progress the Pirates will give him some more rope. If continues to “miss water while throwing from a fvcking boat,” he’ll be sent to Indy. I wouldn’t make much out of all of this until the end of spring. There’s a lot of time left.
Update
Per DK, No Relation has moved from relief today to a start against TB tomorrow. I think that tells us that Hart will not come north unless he shows some sort of tangible progress, which is good. Now, how they define “tangible progress” is another question. I’d like to think it will be some combination of a big improvement in his side sessions and noticeable improvement in actual games (to make sure that he’s not flummoxed by even a low-pressure game situation – if he can’t translate his side sessions to a Grapefruit game, I don’t see how he’ll do it in Pittsburgh).
Speaking of control problems...
…anybody else catch Gorzelanny’s start today? Five walks in 3 1/3. That gives him 8 in 8 2/3 for the spring.
Maybe the trade’s just cursed. Grabow better watch his step…
Grabes
is the key to the Cubbies’ season.
Grabow’s days with the Pirates have him well-prepared for what’s ahead. But, in an unusual twist, left-handers hit better against him (.263 to .254), although they strike out more often.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Mar 20, 2010 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I read that article
and laughed hysterically. Anytime your 8th inning setup guy is the key to your season, there may be a problem. I mean, can you imagine actually thinking that Brendan Donnelly is the key to the Pirates’ season? If we don’t have four good relievers, that is going to present a problem, but relying on one single middle relief pitcher to be the weather vane of your season is just screwy.
by MarkInDallas on Mar 21, 2010 2:57 AM EDT up reply actions
How sad
funny part is their fans called themselves laughing at the Pirates’ front office. The Cubs aren’t as well-constructed a team as people think.
If their hopes lie with Grabow they’ll be lucky to win 85 games. Next thing they’ll say is Xavier Nady’s contribution off the bench as their 4th OF will be critical, too.
Where the hell is a goat when you need one?
"Straight ball I hit very much, but curveball, bats are afraid." - Pedro Cerrano
Maybe the trade’s just cursed.
See, this is where I think seamheads have trouble looking beyond the numbers. Once you realize that Dave Littlefield asked a genie to give him a major league GM job, but forgot to ask to know how to do that job, everything makes a lot more sense.
I don’t know who forgot to sacrifice to which god, but somebody fucked up that trade. I suspect NH screwed up the incantations in the Bay trade as well (whereas Theo seems to have crossed all his sacred Ts).
Don't give up on Hart, but...
if the guy can’t find the zone, I don’t see how you can run him out there. Several people have offered valid reasons to keep him with the big club and I won’t argue the possible benefits of having him work directly with Kerrigan (an astute point). But if I had my druthers, they keep McCutchen (who can actually pitch) and either option Hart to AAA or find a way to stash him on the DL.
The most consistent point in Hart’s favor everyone (fans & media alike) offers is his stuff. While stuff is great and he may miss a few more bats, from all accounts he’s not even close to being right at this point. And it’s not as if McCutchen has BP stuff; if he truly has the pitching acumen some feel he does, his arm is more than adequate.
Anyways, when it comes to Edward v. Jacob Kevin v. Daniel, I’m on team Daniel.
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