Mauer gets paid!
by hisjazziness on Mar 21, 2010 6:51 PM EDT
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The Twins signed Mauer to a reported 8 year, $184 million dollar contract extension today. I don't feel like linking anyone but Ken Rosenthal and Ed Price both tweeted about it.
Moving into a new stadium, signing a catcher to the biggest deal in team history...sounds familiar.
Sure, Mauer is much better than Kendall, even at the time, but he's been susceptible to injuries and only displayed great power last year. This seems like a contract that could be fine for a couple of seasons but might be a huge albatross at the end. Thoughts?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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The nice thing for them is they can give him breaks from the rigors of catching with some spot starts at DH…thru 2018, so he’d be 35. I’m not sure if they’re comparable since Mauer is a once-in-a-generation talent while Kendall was quite good for awhile (I know you said that, just thinking out loud.)
Also, the Twins, have quietly started to ratchet up their payroll and are in a much better place than the Pirates were in the Kendall days. Simply put, if Mauer was all they had, he wouldn’t be resigned and probably would be traded by now. If they happen to win a title in the next three years and Mauer falls off greatly after that, was the signing worth it? That might be a different question, but I’m glad he resigned.
Now we get the joy of hearing “Hurr, why can the Twins pay that much for a player, but the Pirates can’t sign CC Sabathia?” all week.
YEAH!
Nutting is cheap.
Huntingdon is a tool.
by IAPiratesFan on Mar 22, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
A catcher?
More like the best catcher in baseball and the best hitter in the AL.
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
by gorillakilla34 on Mar 22, 2010 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions
That's for the forseeable future
We probably won’t see a catcher win 3 batting titles ever again. That is unless Mauer wins three more…
"Straight ball I hit very much, but curveball, bats are afraid." - Pedro Cerrano
Mauer hits well for a DH or 1B as well
So if he is unable to catch full time for more than 4 or 5 more years, the Twins have options there.
Pretty much this. And I really don’t understand the negative responses above. With any player, especially a catcher, there are injury risks, but you’re crazy if you think he wouldn’t pull even more than this on the open market. 23M is pretty much market value for a top 5 player and when you consider how few quality catchers there are, Mauer’s value grows in relation to the market. I actually expected the deal to be a little higher. This, combined with a 90+ million dollar payroll much like the Dodgers, should finally eliminate the perception that the Twins are a small-market team like the Pirates
by thegreatchris on Mar 22, 2010 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions
"23M is pretty much market value"
In 2009 only Arod and Manny earned more than 23M per year…
http://content.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/salaries/top25.aspx?year=2009
by smokedpretzels on Mar 22, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t understand your point. Are you trying to say that there’s a massive disparity between being a top 5 player in baseball and getting the 3rd most money? This is not a Hampton or Zito deal.
by thegreatchris on Mar 22, 2010 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I misinterpreted what you said, I thought you were saying a Top 5 player as in top 5 for his position, in which case 23M is no where near “market value” not Top 5 as in Top 5 in the league, in general. Though I still might consider changing your definition of “market value”
by smokedpretzels on Mar 23, 2010 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I think that's what people are forgetting here...
Mauer’s very athletic and should be able to make the transition to 1B quite easily. Even if that is the case and it happens fairly sooner than later (i.e. the next 4-5 years), they can still get some quality play out of him at 1B or worst-case scenario, he’s a full-time DH.
But then again, if a 3-time batting champ being a full-time hitter is a worst-case scenario, how bad could that really be?
"Straight ball I hit very much, but curveball, bats are afraid." - Pedro Cerrano
Well, let's see
Fangraphs had his last season as worth $36.6M, the season before at $26M, and the consensus projection for this year is $33M. So let’s just say that the guy holds his value and stays healthy the next 3 years (he doesn’t turn 27 for another month). That makes the first 3 years of his contract fair value at $90-100M – and since they’re already competitive, they’re a team that should be paying market value for wins (and of course, Mauer delivers them in bunches). So already, he only needs to be worth $84-94M over the last 5 years of the contract, call it $18M/year. He’d have to collapse (either missing big chunks of seasons or simply forgetting how to hit) not to achieve that (don’t forget that, by year 8, wins will probably be worth $5-6M apiece; he doesn’t need to be a 5 win guy to justify $18M in 2017). A quick check shows that, even as a DH, he could well be worth 3-4 wins, and there’s no reason to think he wouldn’t be worth that or more as a 1B.
The only downside I see to the contract (other than the risk inherent in all long-term contracts) is that it seems unlikely that they’ll want to pay market rate for wins in all 8 years, and my understanding is that the no-trade clause is pretty strong.
Thanks
One thing to add is that, 6 years hence, you will almost certainly start reading articles bemoaning this “albatross” of a contract, pretty much regardless of Mauer’s performance. [On preview, I realize that the original post does this] Why?
Because, if it’s constructed at all normally, he’ll be getting the biggest bucks in his worst years (age 34 & 35*), and his nominal salary at age 35 will probably be ~$30M, which will be a lot for 3-4 wins. But, since they’re getting 6-7 wins per year for under $20M in 2011-2013, that’s a silly complaint. The Twins get a great deal on Mauer’s services now by overpaying a bit 8 years down the road. It may, in fact, inhibit their budget in 2018, but the balance of the deal figures to be a good value.
I don’t know what the MLBPA “allows” its members to sign, but if I were the Twins I’d be pushing for a fat signing bonus, half delivered now (while his salary is $12.5M), half delivered over several post-retirement years. If they can get his average annual salary, post-bonus, down below $20M, then even the out years won’t be much overpriced. If there’s a hometown discount, it would be in that kind of structure.
- One flaw in my analysis above – I incorrectly assumed that the deal kicks in this season, but it’s next season. That ups the odds that his total value in the first 3 seasons is less than $90M, but I don’t think by very much – he should stay about as valuable in his 28-29-30 seasons as in his 26-27-28 seasons. But since I think the out years are such good value, I’m not too worried about it.
My guess is near the same as JRoth's
I think his power numbers from 2009 will prove not to be a fluke. If he hits in the 25 HR range he should be able to stay in the +45 to +55 batting runs territory. That should make him valuable whether he stays at catcher or not, which I’d guess he will stick at until 32 or 33. That gives them about 5 years on his new contract at catcher and 3 years at 1B.
BTW, I don’t know if they have the actual details, but Cot’s has the new contract at $23M per for 8 years. If the overall Twin’s payroll and revenue is able to rise over the next 6 years (as does the value per win), then the end of his contract won’t be seen as an albatross unless he falls off badly.
by MarkInDallas on Mar 22, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope so
A completely flat contract would be as effective as what I proposed, and a lot simpler. A fat signing bonus would still be worthwhile (given his relatively tiny 2010 salary), but regardless, a non-escalating contract means that his value will keep much closer pace with his salary.
I guess we’ll have to wait till Cot’s Baseball Contracts posts it to find out. Very curious to see what the structure of this deal is.
If it’s as back-loaded as you suggest, it could make things pretty tight for their payroll, regardless of how well he plays. But if it’s non-escalating, it’ll be a lot easier to account for down the line.
But then again, deferring some down the line like A-Rod’s contract in Texas should help in theory, right?
"Straight ball I hit very much, but curveball, bats are afraid." - Pedro Cerrano
a potential downside
although I agree in essence to what you said, and think the Twins were right in the signing.
Mauer as a catcher is more exposed to freak injuries, a runner crashing into his knee at home plate, a broken foot from blocking home plate, a wrist injury from a crossed up sign with the pitcher. One of those happens early, and the Twins would be staring down a barrel.
dang I wish I could get paid $184 Million to play a game
and I I could choose a game to play to get paid that much it would be Rock Paper Sicsors, I would dominate that league
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"Its a Great Day to be a Mountaineer where ever you may be" Tony Caridi
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
PS
There’s also a great Seinfeld where Kramer plays Mickey in rock, paper scissors. Mickey claims rock smashes right through paper. Kramer asks “so what beats rock?” and Mickey says “nothing beats rock.”
Classic.
I remember that one, you’re right, that’s a classic. I think it’s when they’re arguing about who gets to play what disease for the med students.
by CptnAwesome on Mar 22, 2010 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Ha no
I think it’s the one where Kramer and Mickey are stand-ins on a soap opera, and Kramer gets Mickey to put lifts in his shoes but ends up getting found out.
PPS, I have that big Seinfeld DVD fridge that has all the seasons on it, which is fantastic by the way.
So in the long run...
the Cubs saved alot of money when Mark Prior fell to them. Doh!
Up through age 25...
…Kendall and Mauer were virtually identical.
Kendall, 1996-1999: 501 games, 1715 AB, .312/.399/.451, 120 OPS+
Mauer, 2004-2008: 561 games, 2059 AB, .317/.399/.457, 127 OPS+
Before he hurt his thumb, Kendall was really, really good. Like, Hall of Fame good. People here tend to forget that sometimes.
Why are you making me so sad?
It was the thumb, not the ankle, that really put him off track, right? He basically recovered from the ankle (lost some speed, but not all), but he never got the power back after that thumb. Or am I misremembering?
No, you've got it right.
He dislocated the ankle in ‘99, and then coming back in 2000 he hit .320/.412/.470 (124 OPS+), which falls off of Mauer’s pace but is still one hell of a season for a catcher.
Then on the first series of ‘01, he tore the tendon in his thumb trying to handle a ball in the dirt. He played hurt in secret all year at the behest of management (not that Kendall ever needed much encouragement to play hurt), since they didn’t want to lose their star attraction in the first season in PNC Park. And then after the season he had at least three different operations on the thumb, and he was never the same hitter again.
I don’t know whether playing those 157 games that year were specifically responsible for degrading his performance, or whether the initial injury itself did all the damage, but either way it really sucks.
My God
Just imagine that 2001 team with 157 games of Humberto Cota (or was it Osik? Either way).
But yeah, sucks. Talking about the HoF potentiality, when you see that he’s still in the bigs today, having lost all his power 8 years ago… geez.
It's pretty crazy.
When you take 25/26-year-old Kendall, and you stack him up against Mickey Cochrane or Bill Dickey or Yogi Berra or Gabby Hartnett, he’s right there with them.
He’s still only the second-best young catcher in franchise history, though. Fred Carroll was even better, way back in the day.
I know this is reaching waaaaayyy back...
I never would have guessed Kendall’s numbers stacked up surprisingly close to Mauer’s. Was it ever thought that Kendall would develop power, as Mauer did this past year? I know it doesn’t matter given what happened to his thumb, but I was just curious if they thought he would improve even further.
Yeah
He was considered due for a few more doubles turning into HRs. Nothing like Mauer’s production, but maybe as many as 20 in a good year. Interestingly, he actually hit his 3rd-most HRs in that injured 2001, but his doubles plummeted by a third, and never quite came back (although he still hit 30 in his semi-bounceback 2008). And the HRs never came back at all (he averaged 9/year his first 6 years, and has never hit more than 6 since then; most years, more like 2-3).
I just realized
That average includes his 1999 half-season, so his rate over those first 6 seasons was more like… 1/15 games. And that includes just 3 HRs his rookie season. It’s safe to say that he was a 15 HR guy his last 3 pre-thumb seasons, with, as I said, a decent shot at an occasional 20 HR year.
Meanwhile, his 2B rate the first 5 years was over 1/5 games; if not for the ankle, he would have had 4 straight seasons at 33 or more.
Oh well.
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