Huntington: John Raynor "In Front Of" Brandon Moss
by Charlie Wilmoth on Mar 25, 2010 1:54 AM EDT
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PrintSomeone once observed that political gaffes are most damaging when they confirm a candidate's existing reputation. Howard Dean's scream was damaging because, to some people, it confirmed his reputation as a loose cannon; Dan Quayle misspelling of the word "potato" was damaging because to some people it confirmed that he wasn't particularly bright. If a gaffe doesn't fit the narrative about a candidate, it's considerably less damaging.
Spring Training statistics are like that. They don't matter much unless they confirm what we already thought. If Paul Maholm or Ross Ohlendorf had failed to throw strikes throughout Spring Training, it would have been no big deal; we'd just chalk that up to Spring Training being Spring Training, and assume Maholm or Ohlendorf would iron out his troubles by the start of the season. But when Kevin Hart did it, well, that was a different story.
Now Brandon Moss is 2-for-29 in Spring Training. It's actually not terribly unusual for a player to hit that badly, and if Ryan Doumit had done it no one would care, but we already suspect that Moss can't really hit, so that's a big problem for him. That's the main reason it appears that Rule 5 pick John Raynor has passed him on the depth chart:
"As we're sitting here today, John Raynor obviously has put himself in front of Brandon Moss," Huntington said Wednesday morning. "We still have time left in spring training. As we've said from the get-go, it's a competition that won't be based on pure statistics. But John's had a good camp to date, and Brandon's struggled."
The Pirates stand to lose either player if they don't make the team--Raynor would have to be offered back to the Marlins, and Moss is out of options. There is a chance, though, that the Pirates could carry both for a while, particularly if they elect to go with a short bullpen for the first couple weeks of the season. Joel Hanrahan will begin the year on the DL anyway, and there are a bunch of off days in April.
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I think they should use a short bullpen to start the season for sure. They could start McCutchen the 11th, then use him in the bullpen for 2, 3, or 4 innings in one game against Cincinnati (the 16th, 17th, or 18th). They would then have him available to start again the 24th if Hart doesn’t work his issues out and would be able to keep their bench options a little longer.
The thought also crossed my mind about a short bullpen. It would be wonderful to have a few extra weeks to make decisions about about the outfield positions. An important question is ‘will the starting rotation wear out the bullpen in the first couple of weeks of the season?’
We would hope that those who have been starters (or have be groomed to be starters) could make five or even six innings in each game, coming out of this year’s spring training. But if they can’t; could the bullpen still be strong enough to deal with the early load?
My thoughts are that the Bucs bullpen will be strong enough to deal with the potential problems in our starting rotation; so I do think we could carry an extra outfielder.
The real question then becomes ‘will the extra time carrying an extra outfielder actually produce some clear result?’ Will both players have enough time to showcase what they can each do?
A couple of difficult decisions lie ahead for our front office, and for me THAT is a very welcomed change.
Paul.
"I choose to gamble with my life
Twice the risk, four times the prize
Nothing knocks me over"
I suspect that the advantage to carrying both temporarily...
…would have less to do with gaining more info about their abilities in order to make a more informed decision (though that certainly wouldn’t hurt), and more to do with buying some extra time to put together a trade for one player or the other.
Or...
to allow for the development of a scenario whereby both can be kept, such as an injury.
Good day.
anyone going to a game?
If you have a good arm, see if you can plunk whoever is out there with something! Failing that, someone with a voodoo doll stick pins in a Moss Doll.
:p
by BlindSquirrel on Mar 25, 2010 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll wire the money over for the fines...
(*commenter should not be taken seriously…)
by BlindSquirrel on Mar 25, 2010 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions
One problem with this scenario...
unless Clement doesn’t make the team (and Jones goes to 1B), there won’t be much, if any, playing time for either one of them at ANY of the OF position. You gonna bench Cutch, Jones or Milledge so these two can battle it out?? I don’t think so.
The next regular season inning that Jones misses (not counting the last couple games of the season when he was injured) will be the first one. Cutch isn’t far behind that…and Milledge didn’t miss too many games either. A 5th outfielder (or 5th and 6th) doesn’t play much other than a few PH appearances.
im a big moss supporter
i am, when we got him almost two years ago i thought that he could develope into a quality hitter. now i think he might be the worst person we got in that trade. he has had over a year to prove himself, i think that this spring should be his last chance with us, maybe let him come north for the first month and see if he can find his swing, if he cant then it might just be time to cut our loses. i mean he has just been awful
Short bullpen
I like the idea of opening the season with both Moss and Raynor on the roster, then making a move in a couple of weeks.
By that time, other teams would have their own lineups set and would be less inclined to take a flyer on Moss, if you were inclined to re-sign him once he’d passed through waivers.
Obviously the guy on the bubble is Moss. If you’ve written him off entirely, you might as well cut him loose at the end of spring training and move on. But if you still cling to the hope he’ll figure things out, then bring him north. That way you leave yourself the theoretical option of bringing him back and letting him get at-bats in the minors.
Flyer
Just to clarify: if someone else picks him up on waivers, does he need to go on their 25-man? Because, if so, then that does greatly reduce the odds of him getting picked up.
Then it seems like a no-brainer
Bring Moss and Raynor both north, cut Moss shortly thereafter, and wager on the good odds that, as of April 6, everyone will be happy enough with their 5th OF that they don’t want to embark on the Moss Reclamation Project.
Plus, of course, anyone who does bite becomes a target for a trade – as always, something is better than nothing.
I agree.
Anybody know of a team that would definitely take Moss over what they’ve got? What about DC?
by MarkInDallas on Mar 25, 2010 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
They came to mind
With Dukes gone, and nothing doing this year, I have to think they’d at least be open to it. But I can’t say that I’ve looked into it.
I do know that I’ve read about a few teams handing out surprising contracts to marginal OF vets (e.g. Dye, plus I think the Royals did this) who could probably use Moss, but would now have to shoot themselves in the foot to take advantage.
Nice thing is that NH can actually keep an eye on the DL + waiver wire and time a DFA for Moss – basically there’s no rush before 4/24. We’ll see.
i want moss to make the team. i think the guys pressin right now, but i think he could be ok. i still think he has more upside than raynor. i dont want raynor on the roster. i wouldnt mind goin with the short bullpen to start the year to give them both a few at bats.
He was pressing last year too...
says something about him that he folds up whenever the pressure is on.
One other nice thing about the short pen...
…is that we don’t really need six right-handed relievers. Particularly not in the early going, when McCutchen’s only going to take his regular turn once or twice. It would be cake for him to double as a long man on weeks when we don’t need a #5.
Was Pearce eliminated?
I was under the impression that Steve Pearce could still make the team? Everyone is talking about whether to choose Moss or Raynor, but why not Pearce or Raynor. Maybe i’m just a Moss hater, but i would definatley rather see Pearce on the club than Moss.
Most people have been crossing Pearce off...
…because he has an option remaining, and as such isn’t at risk of being lost if he doens’t make the 25-man roster.
Keep Pearce
Pearce v LHP is 282/365/548, where Jones is 242/271/401 and Clement is 263/342/463.
It makes the most sense to keep Pearce and spot start him v LHP for either Jones or Clement. Pearce is no superstar, but AAA will do nothing for him. Let him do what he can, hit LHP, be a decent defensive 1B & as good as Jones or Moss in the OF.
Who will grab Moss on wavers? This is the perfect time to pass him through and resign him.
by NHpiratefan on Mar 25, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I must say
I’ve been disappointed in (what I’ve heard about) Raynor’s D. I was excited by the pickup because I was under the impression that his speed would play well in PNC’s OF, but it seems like his routes are worse than 2008 NyjMo’s (what I recall at the time was that most people praised NyjMo’s D, but the cognoscenti noted his poor routes; Raynor sounds like a guy whose routes are so bad that everyone notices).
OTOH, I also seem to recall a quote from him emphasizing his intense desire to learn and improve, which is, after all, what made NyjMo such a pleasant surprise.
One thing I learned from Nyjer is that the routes—and Nyjer’s were terrible—matter less than speed. Raynor can probably run some pretty bad routes and still be a good defensive OF.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Mar 25, 2010 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Right
As long as he’s in the ballpark, so to speak – if he’s running in on liners to his left, when he needs to be running back, all the speed in the world won’t fix that geometry. But if his routes are merely inefficient (3 steps sideways, then angling back properly), then speed will work for him.
WOOHOO!
Finally! I called this Moss crap a year ago. Get him out!
Can we root for
giving the AB’s to a better player? Not wasting any more time or money? I don’t see it as failing, he just doesn’t have it. I’ve much more faith in Pearce being productive and he has no chance to make opening day it seems.
i’m not saying that moss deserves a spot, because he certainly doesn’t. i’m saying that it’s selfish and immature to value your own prediction on the freaking internet (and really, brilliant deduction on this one. certainly nobody else was thinking the same thing.) over that of the team you’re supposedly rooting for.
awww
give mspirate a told-you-so moment… it’s not like it comes up THAT often (wink)
by BlindSquirrel on Mar 25, 2010 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm still confused about Moss
I was in Massachussets when the Bay trade happened. While Botox fans were happy to get Bay, many were upset at loosing Moss. The local press had been discussing, before the trade, the option of simply letting Manny go and promoting Moss.
While its a shame to see a prospect fail, ces la vie – he’s had the opportunity to hit and its not like he’s being asked to break into the 1927 Yankees line-up or expected to carry the team to the World Series. We have options. Farewell & godspeed, Brandon.
The only concern I have breaking camp short one pitcher is the recent box scores. We might need the extra arm the way things are going.
And this being New York, I can probably get you anything Pizzashop is selling cheaper – if you don’t mind obvious knock-offs. Can someone push pins into a voodoo doll of a spammer, please?
Raynor
I’d love to see this kid make the team. Again today he goes to the plate twice, draws two walks and scores two runs. We need more of that. In fact, if Moss wants to improve… he might just do better by leaving his bat in the dugout and hoping to be walked.
Raynor’s going to be 26 and has never hit well even at AAA. The only way I’d consider rostering him is if he’s an elite defender, which he might be. The huge K rates even without much walks or power is a red flag.
He never hit well, except at A-, A, and AA
He may have been battling a wrist injury at AAA last year. He raked with a decent BB rate before that, albeit old for his levels, but FLA promoted him very passively, not promoting him even though he was old for his levels and was raking. He may not be anything, but don’t say he never hit well.
Well, he's only had one go at AAA.
And that was after he broke his wrist. And he’s hit quite well in every other year, at every other level.
So it’s not like there’s an extensive record of failure, there.
azibuck and Vlad are totally right here. My only grievance with this is that I don’t understand why people won’t defend Moss similarly. Basically, every good thing you can say about Raynor (performed well in the minors, before last year, plays good defense, etc.) you can say about Moss (except that Moss is slower), and every excuse you can make for Raynor (recovering from injury last year) you can make for Moss. But for Moss, you can also say that he’s had some success at higher levels, and that he’s performed at younger ages at every level.
There are more Moss detractors than supporters on BD, I think.
I still think Moss can be a good 3rd-4th OF.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Mar 26, 2010 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions
The differences, as I see them:
1) Moss’s injury was less serious.
2) Moss didn’t exactly cover himself in glory in 2008 or this spring, either, casting some doubt on whether his 2009 struggles were purely injury-related.
3) Raynor’s superior tools give him more upside, and as such, his recent production is potentially of less importance when assessing his future value.
4) Raynor has more cheap service time and options remaining, providing us with added value if he’s able to last out the year on the roster.
I'd like to see us have more flexibility with Moss's future in the organization
by taking him north in April and seeing how the roster works out a few weeks later.
"It's a damn poor mind that can only think of one way to spell a word."
Andrew Johnson
If I'm not mistaken,
the April schedule has more off days this year without the WBC being played, so it seems like an extra ‘pen shouldn’t be necessary the first few weeks.
"It's a damn poor mind that can only think of one way to spell a word."
Andrew Johnson
change of scenery
Moss is not going to make it with the bucs and I have doubts whether he’ll ever hit enough to be a fourth outfielder with any team. He plays with no confidence and shows little to no emotion! He has not shown the ability to hit for power at the big league level, speed is mediocre, average is mediocre at best, defense is mediocre and is arm is below average. He has a lot that is not pointing him in a positive direction. I like Moss and thought he would be better, but I think it is time to look at the bottom line. Moss may end up salvaging his career elsewhere, but at this point I don’t see how he can improve our big league club. I hate to give up on a guy, but I think at this point he has basically given up on himself!
Emotion doesn't put runs on the board.
I don’t care whether we field a team of fiery can-do guys or soulless automatons, as long as they put runs on the board. The latter, of course, remains an issue with Moss, which is why we find ourselves in the position in which we do.
(Also, for the record: Despite a few recent hiccups, Moss’s glove and arm are both above-average for a corner OF.)
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