D-Backs Sign Justin Upton
by Charlie Wilmoth on Mar 4, 2010 1:53 AM EST
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PrintThis isn't directly Pirates-related, but:
The D-backs gave the talented young outfielder 51.25 million reasons to sign his name on a six-year contract that runs through 2015.
The deal buys out all three of Upton's salary-arbitration years as well as the first two years of free agency.
Upton, 22, will receive a $1.25 million signing bonus that will be paid in equal installments on April 15 and July 15 and salaries of $500,000 in 2010, $4.25 million in 2011, $6.75 million in 2012, $9.75 million in 2013, $14.25 million in 2014 and $14.5 million in 2015.
Nice move for both parties. The Diamondbacks keep a player who's probably as likely as anyone in the world to be the 2015 N.L. MVP for two extra years, and Upton never has to worry about money again. (Bill James recently ranked Upton the eighth most valuable young player in the majors, and I think even that underrates Upton considerably.)
This sort of contract is worth keeping in mind with regard to Andrew McCutchen. In fact, if McCutchen performs well to start the season, it might be wise for the Pirates to begin pursuing a long-term deal in a few months. The Diamondbacks' deal with Upton is a good one, but they waited until after he'd been accumulating service time for a couple years, and he cost them $51 million; the Rays, by contrast, signed Evan Longoria almost as soon as his career started, and they're only on the hook for $17.5 million guaranteed, plus team options for 2014, 2015 and 2016.
McCutchen isn't quite on the same tier as Upton and Longoria talent-wise, but he's close, and he's as close as it gets to being a sure thing--he's extremely well-rounded as a ballplayer, he's young, he's athletic, he'll have defensive value regardless of how well he hits, and he's about as injury-proof as they come. All those traits suggest he'll age well. There certainly shouldn't be any rush to sign McCutchen, but I hope the Pirates at least have it in the backs of their minds, because it could save them big money later if they do it fairly soon.
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If Bob Nutting still owns the team.....
I think it is very unlikely that either McCutchen or Alvarez will ever receive this kind of deal and that we will be lucky if they are retained through their arbitration years let along into their free agency years.
What a fresh and unexpected perspective.
by TravisDW on Mar 4, 2010 9:04 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
What do you mean...
…“if Bob Nutting still owns the team”?
Are you thinking we’ll all be wiped out by the Aztec calendar in 2012?
To be fair
That 2012 movie did present an awfully convincing case.
Mayan’d
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Mar 4, 2010 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
Do you really expect the world....
to be the same 5 years from now?
by Nuttinghostage on Mar 4, 2010 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
I expect Nutting to keep owning the team...
…until he has a compelling reason to sell it.
The rest of the world will presumably take care of itself.
We have a shot with Cutch...
Alvarez I don’t think we’ll sign though unlike you I’m not prepared to blame that on Nuttiing. We all were pretty happy with the 90-92 teams and they weren’t able to retain Bonds and Bonilla.
Cutch
IF the Pirates do improve throughout this year such that 2011 looks like it could be the real “turn the corner” year, it might make sense to pursue that long-term contract with Cutch to be a kickoff to 2011 (maybe announce just before ST 2011???). It would be the double-whammy of positive PR for the Bucs — a team that looks like it is on the way to competing AND “proof” they will try to sign some of the core guys long-term.
We’ll see what happens.
Nah
If they DID sign Cutch longterm, the Yinzers would simply point out that they had McLouth signed longterm to a very reasonable deal and had announced he was going to be a building block of the team, so you can’t believe anything Nutting/FC/NH say blah blah blah.
It's like
arguing with people who believe they’ve been abducted by aliens or something.
To be fair
That Fourth Kind movie did present an awfully convincing case.
Jovovich’d
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Mar 4, 2010 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
I wouldn’t make seeing it a priority but its an okay popcorn flick made better because Milla is in it.
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Mar 4, 2010 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
“In fact, if McCutchen performs well to start the season, it might be wise for the Pirates to begin pursuing a long-term deal in a few months.”
I’d say this is something the Pirates should start to consider during the 2011 season if McCutchen plays very well all of this year, and not something to concern themselves with in 2010.
Cutch has a 108-game track record for 2009.
Justin Upton has 289 games over 3 years.
Let’s see Cutch do it at a high level for 150 this year at the least.
And, as you say Charlie, Cutch “isn’t quite on the same tier as Upton and Longoria talent-wise”.
I’m hopeful, but there’s no hurry yet by a longshot.
"There is no human problem which could not be solved if people would simply do as I advise."
Gore Vidal
couldn't agree more
There’s always a possibility of Cutch bein in a sophomore slump then fully breaking out in ’11.
I’d say when Cutch breaks out sign him a contract that takes care of his arb years (13-15) and a couple of his free agent years (16-17).
Seein that Cutch doesn’t have Boras on his side (compared to Pedro) there’s a better chance of him bein a Pirate for the long-term compared to Pedro.
by BadAndy on Mar 4, 2010 12:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
yup
I think if McCutcheon plays out this year healthy and improves on his numbers for last year you would think the PBC would start leaning toward trying to do a longer term contract.
But at the same time I don’t want it to be immensely huge that it prevents the team from signing other players.
I still think that the pirates might be well-served to sign mccutchen to a deal like this, only with the terms reversed, so that the bigger payouts come in the earlier years… essentially, paying some of the expenses of a proverbial 2014 winning team in advance and allowing for an extra big money deal going forward… besides, it’s not like the pirates are burning up the payroll now… why not invest those dollars in future success?
by Captain Easychord on Mar 4, 2010 11:04 AM EST reply actions
Couldn't agree more
But it won’t happen.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 4, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
Present-day dollars are worth more than future dollars.
As such, teams are reluctant to front-load contracts, since the actual value of deals of that type are higher than they would be otherwise.
Right, but
in the Pirates’ case, now is when they have payroll space – come 2014, Alvarez starts getting big (we hope) arbitration bucks, as will some of our other young guys (eg, Andy, Morton). Paying Cutch $5, 6, 7, 7, 8, 9 starting in 2011 would be more real cost than a more y=x^2 kind of curve, but it effectively saves us $3-4M in 2014, and even more in ’15 and ’16 (plus, if he heads to FA, it makes him incredibly attractive as trade bait in his walk year).
IOW, we can’t prepay a putative FA who gets us over the top in 2014, but we can prepay Cutch, who will be a big contributor to that team
But we’ve had this argument before.
That money can be put in the bank
And spent later. They allow you to do that. Only if Cutch were to give them a huge discount would they give him a significant signing bonus upfront.
Lock 'em Up
The Pirates can probably get McCutchen for a reasonable deal this year. But make no mistake, they’re going to have to pay him. Still, I think he’ll be better than McClouth in the long-run. If they’re serious about their renewal, the Pirates have to do this, right?
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
I seem to recall reading somewhere
that Cutch has stated that there is no way he will be willing to sign away any of his potential FA years. Did I get that wrong or maybe there are indications that he has changed his mind?
I remember
Hearing something like that. I know Pedro won’t sign because of Boras.
Right, I’m just completely leaving Pedro out of this. He’s a worse player to sign to a long-term deal anyway because he’s not as athletic.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Mar 4, 2010 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
In my mind, he's already gone
Honest to god, I view Pedro as a 6 year rental – he’ll come up in mid-2010, and he’ll be traded for prospects in mid-2016, and I hope he helps us in the meantime. Any other approach is just setting yourself up for heartbreak.
I recognize, of course, that 6 years of an All-Star player* is nothing to sneer at. I’m just saying that I won’t be investing in a Pedro jersey.
- knock wood, of course.
I wouldn't invest in one anyway.
Going back on his word the way he did after the draft shows what kind of character he has. I’ll hope that he plays well for us, out of self interest, but I don’t expect to ever have any real affection for him.
I felt like I’d read that somewhere too, but I couldn’t find it. I’m not sure how much it matters. Players agree to these deals because these deals set them up for life. McCutchen might change his mind if the reality of that were presented to him.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Mar 4, 2010 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
Can't find it either
But I know he said it – I commented on it here, because I found it depressing. As you say, the reality of a mid-8 figure offer may sway him, but he was pretty emphatic. It would still be worth our while to buy out his arbitration years, but I’m not convinced we’ll get even one FA year.
Among other things, I’m sure he’s aware of all the reasons you cite for it being in the Pirates’ best interest, which means that he’d be likely giving up big bucks in exchange for security and faster money.
I think you’re thinking of this comment, JRoth. Best I could come up with for now.
/loves a good Internet hunt
Actually,
I could care less about the contract situations over the next few years for both Cutch and Alvarez.
I’m more interested in seeing how much we can win between ’12 and ’15.
"There is no human problem which could not be solved if people would simply do as I advise."
Gore Vidal
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