Some Spring Training Notes
by epoc on Mar 8, 2010 7:10 PM EST
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PrintI saw a couple of games this weekend (Fri night at BAL and Sun against MIN), and I thought I'd type up a couple of notes. So as not to bore everyone, I'll just keep it to a couple things that really struck me, but if anyone has any questions, I'll try to answer them. If people think these notes are valuable, I'll keep writing about anything remarkable as I see some more games.
1. Most of you know that I'm pessimistic about Ross Ohlendorf, so take my criticisms with a grain of salt, but Ohly looked pretty unimpressive on Sunday. There's some confirmation bias here, since I already believed this, but Ohlendorf's fastball is just too flat, and he doesn't have good enough command. When he misses up in the zone he gets crushed, and he doesn't have an out-pitch to offset that tendency with a bunch of strikeouts. On a positive note, he seemed to be concentrating on keeping the ball down, which he mostly accomplished. Hopefully that will help offset some of his flyball tendencies.
2. John Raynor looked absolutely awful on defense. He misplayed an out into a double in each of the games I saw, and in general he took routes reminiscent of a young Lastings Milledge in center. One of those misplays/doubles could have been because of heavy wind, and the other was a tricky play (ball hit right toward him, he took two steps in before he realized it was over his head). I'm not going to draw any firm conclusions based on two games, but he looked really bad out there.
3. Bryan Morris looked surprisingly awesome on Sunday. He pitched a very quick inning, so my opinion here is based on only a dozen pitches or so, but he had good velocity on his fastball, great bite on his breaking ball, and was throwing easy strikes.
4. The most exciting thing was Tony Sanchez's performance on Friday night. You probably read all about it, but I thought I'd add a bit of color. There was the caught stealing and cleanly fielded bunt, but also every detail of his defense was spectacular - footwork, receiving, blocking. Based on what I saw, I'd say he's already better defensively than a significant number of major league catchers, and he's definitely better than Doumit and Jaramillo already. More impressive, though, was his at-bat. It's not just that he homered. He fell behind 0-2, then displayed good patience/judgment in evening the count at 2-2, including fouling off a couple pitches that were close. The bat control in fouling off those pitches with two strikes was very nice, and the home run power combined with the bat control was impressive. It was just one at-bat and it came against a minor leaguer, but even aside from the homer, I don't think he could have had a more impressive at-bat.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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The Sanchez pick.
I was pretty disappointed by the Sanchez pick last summer. I’m glad that so far it seems to be working out. I think a lot of people were very skeptical about the draft last summer and it’s good to see why he might have been worth a #4 pick…
Not following the players within the draft as much
I was a bit concerned, but it shows to me that the scouting did their homework on Sanchez.
3 things that i really like are the patience at the plate and the defense that i’ve heard of. The last thing is the fouling off of pitches. Very few of our hitters currently really foul off pitches. Aside from Freddy sanchez and Jack wilson(both gone now) who used to do it alot. Most of our hitters to me it seems are swing and whiff — Especially when they get down to an 0-2 count.
Don't forget Cutch...
from what I remember, he would get down 0-2 or 1-2 a lot before fouling off a few and getting a hit. True professional at such a young age.
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
by gorillakilla34 on Mar 8, 2010 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
Never understood
The hate for the Sanchez pick. I mean, I’m familiar with the argument, but it seemed to be heavily predicated on the putative difference between a 1:15 shot and a 1:16 shot*. Given how much more the Pirates know about amateur players than any of us do, I just can’t see getting worked up about it.
When you add in the guy’s obvious makeup positives, reasonable and fast signing, and added value from playing a tough position, I think the Pirates’ case is easy to see. I’m not saying it’s unreasonable to disagree; I just thought the vehemence of the disagreement (from non-PBC Blog commenters) was out of hand.
Anyway, I’m extremely pleased so far, and struggling not to get too excited. epoc’s observations won’t help in that aspect.
- I’ve read nothing that convinces me that the available guys ranked ahead of Sanchez in the draft were sure-fire studs.
The hate for the Sanchez pick, in my case...
…came from my assessment of him as a guy with zero superstar potential. Defense is nice, and position scarcity is nice, and polish and signability are nice, but when you have a guy who has significant holes in his offensive game (significant enough to cap his ceiling at good regular), he’s not a good pick at that slot.
To his credit, he’s been a much better hitter in the pros thus far than I would have expected. If he can master the transition to AA (and handle upper-minors breaking stuff), that will go a long way toward making the pick look better.
Yeah, thinking after I commented, I would have said that (relatively) low ceiling was the #1 reason to hate the pick – the best realistic case is reliable second-tier catcher with a great glove and a #6 bat. But I think his floor* is reliable third-tier catcher with a great glove and a #8 bat (with a bit of pop). Whereas the 5-15 picks** were more boom-or-bust guys, none of them more likely to be All-Stars than to be part players.
Anyway, I think that, once they spread money around the late rounds, it’s hard to complain about what they got in Sanchez – they got a very functional piece that enabled them to pick up 2-3 pieces they never could have gotten had they chased a potential superstar.
- granting that anyone can wash out – but he’d have to have Argenis Diaz’ bat not to see some MLB time
- speaking broadly – what I’m saying is that this isn’t a Moskos-over-Wieters pick, it’s a Maholm-over-Ollie Perez pick
A guy having a floor as a backup...
…is not a great consolation to me. You can get a glove-first backup catcher for about $500k, give or take.
That said, the ZVR pick makes up for a lot of ills as far as I’m concerned. And Sanchez is certainly doing everything right so far.
I didn’t say “backup,” and I don’t mean “backup.” This is giving me flashbacks to Jack Wilson arguments. “He doesn’t hit enough.” “He’s the best defensive SS in baseball.” “Doesn’t matter, he doesn’t hit enough.” “He hits better than 1/3 of the starting SS in MLB, and he’s got a better glove than all of them.” “He doesn’t hit enough.” &c.
Point being, if Tony Sanchez has the defense (and work ethic and health) that people are saying he has, he’ll be one of the 2-4 best defensive Cs in baseball. If that’s the case, he doesn’t have to hit much to be a starter on a non-awful team (cf. Kendall, Jason). And, as I said, the guy never projected to be Argenis Diaz with the bat. Put it this way: with an OPS of .700, he’d be right at the 33rd percentile of MLB catchers, and a better defender than most of the guys ahead of him, as well. Taking Omir Santos 2009 as a model for Sanchez’ offensive floor, you’ve got a guy who OPS .688 with an ISO of .132, for a WAR of 1 in 91 games. And he’s a poor defender. With Sanchez, you get at least that with the bat, and a great glove, and you get it for 6 years. If you find a superstar C to supersede him, great; if not, you’ve got a mid-level catcher you don’t need to worry about.
But my entire point was that I think his floor was always higher than “backup” (whereas a lot of the guys ranked ahead of him have floors in the Chad Hermansen range). I wouldn’t be happy with a conservative pick like Sanchez every year, but I don’t think it’s smart to treat “superstar” as the measuring stick for first round picks every year, because you end up scrambling to convince yourself that whoever’s still available when your turn comes has superstar potential. Someone who was picked after Sanchez (and before Black) will prove to be a superstar; it’s by no means clear that that player will be someone that the Pirates (or you) would have projected as likely to do so.
BTW
Maybe I should clarify “third tier.” What I meant is that I loosely divide current ballplayers into first tier (perennial All-Stars; 2-4 guys per position), second tier (occasional All-Stars, among the best players on their teams; 4-8 guys per position), and third tier (good enough to keep finding a starting job for a few years). Beyond that are replacement-level guys. At some positions there’s probably more third tier depth than at others – catchers and well-rounded SS are scarce, so you see a lot more replacement-level guys getting time there than at, say, 3B. A third tier catcher can find a job every spring (as long as his knees hold up), but a third tier 3B needs to find a team with a hole or a friendly GM. Third tier =/= backup (unless your team is stacked and/or contractual circumstance leads to overlap).
Can you give me some examples...
…of current catchers you would consider to be “third-tier”? Because right now, I have no idea who you’re talking about.
From what you just said, it sounds like you think that Sanchez has (and was regarded at the time of the draft as having) a floor as the 7th-13th-best catcher in baseball, which can’t possibly be what you meant.
Well, I already named Santos and Kendall as two guys
Looking into this, I happened to find this, which is broken into tiers for fantasy purposes. I don’t think in terms of 4 tiers, as this person does, but, if you fold his second and third tiers together and call it my second, that gives you an idea of who’s left (I’d also put most of the “Dropping Off” guys into the third tier).
So, per that guy’s judgement (which I don’t precisely agree with), “third tier” is Chris Iannetta, Kurt Suzuki, Jason Varitek…. I’d add B. Molina and Barajas, among others.
I’d say Sanchez’ downside, at drafting, projected as a bit below Kelly Shoppach – strong D, weak AVG, too many Ks, some pop (I doubt Sanchez will ever have Shoppach’s power). Shoppach’s been shunted into backup roles, but there are probably 10 teams in the league that would take him in a heartbeat, either because he’s healthier than what they’ve got or has at least shown a baseline ability to hit MLB pitching.
It may simply be that our disagreement comes from your low opinion (at draft) of TS’s hitting ability – maybe you thought he stood a great chance to be a Mendoza hitter, in which case, yeah, he’s a dubious pick. My take from what I read was that, barring complete bust, he could hit tolerably well. To name a current Pirate, I say that Sanchez’ floor is above Jaramillo’s 2009; do you agree (or would you have in June?).
To clarify something else, the tier counts float in tandem; if there’s only 2 first-tier guys, then there’ll surely be more than 4 in the second tier – at no position will only 1/5 of all teams be happy with their players (probably the best way to think of first- and second-tier players is that they’re guys that the FO isn’t looking to improve on; they’ll only be moved as part of blockbuster moves and/or for contractual reasons). And I don’t know why you’d limit “third tier” to 7 guys; it’s going to be a much bigger category than 1st & 2nd. Catcher is funny, because even reasonably healthy guys only start so many games – the last 3 seasons, only 10, 9, and 9 Cs have qualified for the batting title – and not all of them are in the first and second tiers (coughKendallcough). But third tier probably covers the 11th-22nd best catchers; beyond that, you’re at RP-level guys (some of whom may be on their way up or down).
Right now, Santos and the 2009 version of Kendall...
…are backup-level performers who were miscast as starting catchers. You could get similar overall performance from a minimum-salary guy. If that’s the “floor” for Sanchez, it’s hardly worth anything.
In contrast, if you’re talking about Kurt Suzuki, you’re talking about a top-10 all-around catcher.
So I still have no idea what you mean.
Re: And I don’t know why you’d limit "third tier" to 7 guys; it’s going to be a much bigger category than 1st & 2nd.
You said in your earlier post that the first tier would have 2-4 players in it, and the second tier would have 4-8 players in it. Thus, from your description, the first tier and the second tier together would have between 6 and 12 players in it, making the third tier of catchers start somewhere between #7 (2 first tier, 4 second tier) and #13 (4 first tier, 8 second tier).
If you want to further clarify that as starting at ~#11 and continuing through ~#22, that’s fine, but it’s not what you said earlier.
"Mendoza hitter".
Coming into the draft, Sanchez was seen as having questionable ability to recognize/hit breaking balls, among other flaws. That can be a real killer in terms of offensive floor. It was, for example, the most crippling flaw in the profile of Chad Hermansen (who, like Sanchez, was a guy with good tools and strong lower-minors hitting performances, who played above-average defense at a key defensive position).
Over Hermansen’s MLB career, he hit .195/.255/.329. So yes, I think Mendoza-level hitting was a possibility, and it remains such until we see how Sanchez handles quality breaking stuff at AA. In fairness, Hermansen’s career K rate was much higher than Sanchez’s K rate to date, but also in fairness, Hermansen’s issues with contact didn’t raise serious red flags until he reached AA (and ran into high-level breaking stuff). In his first pro season, he hit .284/.357/.490, with Ks in 22.6% of his AB. Sanchez’s K rate last year was 23.1%.
So, yeah. It could happen. I certainly don’t want it to, but it might.
I wouldn't worry much about outfield defense in the spring.
The wind there can do crazy things to fly balls.
Thanks for the update, epoc
Its great to hear that Morris and Sanchez looked sharp…I was higher than some on the Sanchez pick but certainly not this high.
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Mar 8, 2010 9:30 PM EST reply actions
Good Updates
Thanks for the updates. Keep em’ comin. I too was down on the Sanchez pick, but man I am loving it more and more. The kid keeps impressing, starting with his radio interview on 93.7 The Fan. Anyone know what I’m talking about? It was easily the best interview I’d ever heard/seen.
A personal question epoc:
Did you come by your tag because you mistyped epic and just stuck with it? Or is it because it is cope backwards?
When I was in a hardcore band in high school, my bandmates and I decided we needed superhero/stage names, and I chose e-poc as mine. E is from my given name, Eric, and “poc” is from 2Pac, and together it’s a homonym for “epoch” which is a good word to associate with superheroism and kick-ass hardcore bands, IMO.
To everyone: I’m glad these notes were interesting/helpful. If anything else strikes me as remarkable, I’ll type it up.
'Pac.
Apropos of nothing, today’s the anniversary of BIG’s death.
Please continue writing things up. There’s nothing that compares with first-hand observation.
good to hear about Morris
It’s too early to tell what kind’ve year Morris is going to have, but I’ve been a big critic of him since his time in the Pirates organization, so its good to hear something positive about him. It seems hes came into this year hungrier than years past, and is out to prove something. I hope he gets things figured out early, and gets on a roll…we need him to become an impact player to make up for our other misses in the Bay trade. Morris, single handily could turn that trade around…
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