Minor League Open Thread: 4/19/10
by Charlie Wilmoth on Apr 19, 2010 10:29 AM EDT
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PrintThe Post-Gazette's comment earlier today about Neil Walker playing like a "promotion candidate" got me to thinking about which such candidates might help the offense. Obviously, we only know a little more than we knew a couple weeks ago, and two weeks of baseball isn't much, so it's early to jump to conclusions, but it's never too early to start thinking. Walker, much to his credit, has played very well so far, with a .914 OPS and (critically, for him) more walks than strikeouts. Jon Van Every, Luke Carlin and Brandon Jones have also hit well. Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata have been fine, but we aren't likely to see either of them until June or so (and if Alvarez keeps hitting .233, he really should stay at Indianapolis for a while anyway).
The player who might really be able to help, though, is Steve Pearce. Pearce has been at Indianapolis long enough to run for city council, but he's off to a blistering start (with a 1.219 OPS) and, historically, he hits lefties hard. The Pirates as a team have a .742 OPS against righties, which is fine, but only a .580 OPS against lefties. The problem with bringing up Pearce to address that balance is that most of the Pirates' offensive problems have come from their starters, and it's too early to give up on any of them. Their bench has been excellent, with Delwyn Young, Ryan Church and Bobby Crosby leading the way. So it's hard to see where anyone new would fit in right now on the offense. If there are any injuries, though, Pearce is the guy I'd like to see.
Anyway, Indianapolis faces Phil Dumatrait and the Toledo Mud Hens today. Brad Lincoln will pitch in what might well be an audition for a temporarily vacant big-league rotation spot--the Pirates haven't decided who will pitch on Saturday. Mike Crotta starts for Altoona tonight against Akron. In Bradenton, Brian Leach starts against the Jupiter Hammerheads. And for West Virginia, Nate Baker (who was rock solid in his first two starts) faces Asheville. All games are at 7:00.
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As far as I’m concerned, they should bring up Pearce now and send Raynor back to Florida since they obviously don’t trust him enough to start him even once against LHP. I don’t really see the benefit of Raynor tying up a roster spot all year as a pinch hitter just so they can send him back down to Indy next year as a 27-year old.
i m somewhat curious
to know just how far from being ready raynor is. Its conceivable that he isn’t that far away…
by BurgherKing on Apr 19, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
If he's close to being ready, they should use him
I have no problem with Raynor, but it certainly appears that JR intends to hide him on the roster Donny Veal style. Which doesn’t make much sense for a 26-year old position player.
He's not hiding.....
him. If he plays, he has to play in place of someone. While I think it is worth resting GJ on occasion, I’m not sure 12 games into the season how many starts you expect him to have gotten when you are working Church in as well. I could see one, but it isn’t a drastic oversight at this point.
Having said all that Pearce, hitting like he is, if he could do that in the bigs would provide an even better and more versatile bench as he could play right or first. Although only Milledge would be remotely adequate in center.
Pearce will get his chance in July if Clement doesn’t cut it.
I know it's early
But JR has gone out of his way to work all the bench guys into the lineup except Raynor. Let’s see how it plays out, but right now it looks like they’re hiding him. If they’re carrying just to be the backup CF, it’s a waste of a roster spot.
Personally, I’d like to see Clement and Pearce platoon at 1B because neither one is really god enough to play every day but they might make an OK platoon combo.
Basically agree
Obviously, if Raynor starts the next game or two, it becomes a moot point, but I certainly don’t think they should keep the guy around all year for pinch running duties.
What I really don’t understand is that JR’s not bringing him in in some of these blowouts. He’s getting plate appearances in them, but (near as I can tell) he hasn’t been put in the field. If you’re not using him after a 13 run inning, when will you ever use him?
minor league stats
Maybe this was discussed elsewhere, but I just looked at Raynor’s minor league stats and I’m intrigued by his 2007 and 2008 seasons. He K’d a lot, but sustained a .400 BABIP (which is a somewhat repeatable skill) for over 1000 PA. In 2009 in AAA, that number came down to a more believable .333, but his power and speed disappeared too.
Any thoughts on these stats? He might just have been coming back to earth after two lucky seasons while moving up a level, but the stats still seem a bit odd.
charity standing orders
Broke his hand in the 2008 AFL.
Hand injuries often continue to affect offensive production for a considerable time after the injury is “healed”.
Again, there....
is a question of acquiring assets. I know I’ve stood on this stump before, but the acquisitions of Meek and Veal were excellent. I don’t have any illusions about Raynor, but the occasional at bat for the 25th isn’t that big a deal.
If Pearce comes up he needs to play. In that case he will come up if/when Clement goes down. I imagine Clement gets until July 1st do show something. At that point, like MVP, you bring Pearce up and send Clement down if warranted. And all this is assuming no one gets hurt.
The problem some of us have is that Raynor is not an asset. He’s 26 now and if he spends this year as a 25th man, he’s going to spend his career as a 25th man. He’s never hit in AAA and he’s going to waste potential development time this year on the bench. I just don’t see how he’s much of an asset.
raynor being 26
he was a college draftee and moved up a level a year, which seems fine to me. Dominated till last year in AAA. Clearly, he had some issues in AAA, which shouldn’t blow him off prospect status entirely.
He likely needs to play more, but I m guessing the Bucs are banking on him being able to hold his own in the bigs… he seems to profile as a backup right now, especially with the K-rate. But his age shouldn’t be a big issue just yet.
Agreed on the age appropriate thing...
but even a college player cannot waste a whole year of development sitting on the bench doing nothing. This is the year he should have been proving himself in AAA and hoping for a July call up.
I'm starting to agree with epoc's point of view...
If we are able to retain him in this role 2010 is basically a lost developmental year for him meaning he will be spending his age 27 season trying to figure out AAA. I was intrigued as anyone with Raynor’s skill set but if 3-4 weeks from now Pearce is still hitting and showing an improved approach at the plate, and Raynor is still not getting any at bats, I’m all for sending him back and calling up Pearce.
Pearce Clement
If Pearce comes up, surely Clement should go to the minors to hit everyday. There’s no point sending Raynor back to make room for Pearce.
I disagee...
Pearce can still get at bats in the OF. What if Pearce and Clement both start hitting. I guess in the end I don’t think Ranynor will be an asset to future Pirate teams if he loses an entire year of development sitting on the bench.
thats def one way to go
my thinking on that simply was that Pearce and Clement are likely to be more valuable pieces, and you want them to play as much as possible. Since Garrett Jones will never sit (by the JR principle), only one of them will play anyway!
Having both Pearce and Clement gives you more effective bats off the bench too.
Who's to say...
…that he isn’t an asset? His 2009 numbers were affected by an injury, and he hasn’t played enough this year to give much sign one way or the other.
My argument is that if he’s a fifth outfielder now, at 26, there’s very little chance for him to ever be more than that. Since he’s never hit above AA, it’s pretty clear that he still needs to develop a bit, which he’s not going to do as a fifth outfielder this year. He’s going to need to go back to AAA next year and prove himself there, but he’s already going to be 27. The best case scenario is that he goes back to AAA next year and rakes for three months. But he’s still behind McCutchen, Milledge, G Jones, and Tabata on the depth chart. Maybe even behind B Jones, who’s younger and has this year to develop. It’s totally possible that he can be a serviceable fourth outfielder, but the chance that he’s a starter from this point on is minimal.
I didn’t care for the Raynor pick at the time, and I haven’t seen anything to change my mind.
There just isn’t a big role in Major League Baseball for exclusively right-handed outfielders without power.
There is if they can play CF.
Which Raynor might be able to do, if he works on his defense. He covers enough ground, he just needs better routes.
He's "never hit above AA"...
…because he only had one season between then and now, and he was playing hurt during it. I don’t see how you get from that point to a blanket assertion that he isn’t ready for the majors, given the lack of evidence one way or the other.
Also, there’s a difference between being a starter and a starting-caliber player. Even if his path to a regular job in the majors is currently blocked, that doesn’t mean that he’s not a valuable commodity.
[Also, B. Jones is crap. Forget about him.]
Raynor is crap. Forget about him.
But in all seriousness, you can’t say a guy is ready for the majors if he hasn’t hit in AAA, whether he was hurt or not. I’m willing to concede that we don’t know whether or not Raynor is ready, but that’s part of my point: we’ll have to wait a year and a half, at least, to find out. By then, the ship will have sailed.
Re: your second paragraph: If his path to the majors is blocked despite being starting-caliber, his value is in trade. But no one is going to trade much for Raynor until he proves he can hit at AAA, at least. That means, if everything goes perfectly for him (which is a longshot, even acknowledging he has potential), he’s not going to bring value to the organization for two years, and even then, he’ll be going into his age 28 season, and 28-year-olds with one good AAA season are not great trade bait; you won’t get anything terribly good for him.
Or, now that he’s a 26-year-old fifth outfielder, his value is that of a 26-year-old fifth outfielder, not that of a prospect.
Why can't you say that?
Guys jump from AA to the bigs all the time.
Personally, I think Raynor would build more trade value by establishing himself as a quality reserve with starting potential, kind of the way that Nyjer did. People already know that he can hit in the minors, so him hitting more in the minors wouldn’t tell them anything they don’t already know, and nobody cares what mid/late 20s guys do at AAA.
He has not hit above AA. Make all the excuses you want, but that remains an important fact. He’s proven he can hit in AA, but he’s proven nothing beyond that. Even in AA, his numbers were inflated by an unsustainable BAbip. You need to make so many excuses before you believe that he’s a major leaguer, or even a prospect. And only elite prospects jump from AA to the bigs. Raynor is not that. Actually hitting well in AAA would most certainly prove something that teams don’t already know. And people most certainly care what mid/late 20s guys do at AAA if their only previous experience above AA was one terrible, injury-affected season. I do not understand your position on this matter at all.
I wouldn’t totally dismiss his BABIP. It is to some extent a repeatable skill. The guy has 1700+ PA with a BABIP over .350. Even in his “down” 2009 season, he had a BABIP of .333.
charity standing orders
A BAbip of .400 is unsustainable. No one’s dismissing anything. He’s just not going to BAbip .400. If you want to look at the average of the top ten career BAbips in the last 50 years and argue that Raynor’s upside is that, fine, but he’s not going to BAbip .400.
Alright, but .340-.350 is realistic, and if you add in the ability to draw walks, hit for reasonable power (this isn’t Nyjer we’re talking about), steal bases, and potentially play good defense, that’s an awful broad base of skills.
The high BABIP took him from a very good line of .285/.385/.455 to his .322/.414/.504 line over those 2 seasons. That doesn’t make him automatically a good MLB player, but it’s sure as hell interesting, and it’s comparable to or better than the best stats Milledge has ever put up over a 1000 PA stretch.
charity standing orders
You don't understand my position...
…because you’re overestimating the value of success at AAA in the general case, and underestimating the value of Raynor’s tools and his prior performance record.
Okay, Vlad, if Raynor was on the Marlins, what exactly would you be willing to trade for him right now, based on his sterling track record and clear ML value?
I think Brandon Moss, at this point, maybe B Jones; certainly not a younger prospect with any upside. Would you trade G Hernandez, for instance? I wouldn’t.
Obviously, estimation is subjective, so it’s just as true that you’re underestimating the value of AAA success and overestimating the value of Raynor’s tools and prior performance. The thing is, you’re basically completely alone in your opinion of Raynor. The Marlins wouldn’t even protect him on their 40-man roster. They chose Scott Cousins (among others) instead. Neither the Nats nor the Yankees even wanted him in the Rule 5 Draft, even though they both had OF needs. Even the Pirates, who liked him enough to select him, didn’t trust him with the fourth outfielder spot, so they signed Ryan Church, and even after that had Raynor competing with Moss for the fifth spot, which Raynor only won because Moss completely crapped the bed. So maybe you’re smarter than everybody in all of these organizations, or maybe you’re wrong about how skilled Raynor is and how much is A and AA stats matter.
Well, that's not a fair question.
Insofar as we don’t really have a need for more outfielders of any sort, I’m not sure I’d be looking to trade for any of them, be they Raynor or someone else.
I’d definitely trade Moss or Jones for him. Gorkys, probably not, but that’s only because I think I could flip him for more elsewhere.
As for my opinion of Raynor, I’m definitely not alone. BA tagged him as a likely selection prior to the draft. The Marlins stated after the draft that they wanted to protect Raynor but ran into a roster crunch, and that they had expected him to be picked after they couldn’t roster him. And on the day of the draft, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo had Raynor on the Yankees’ shortlist as they decided what to do with their pick.
So it’s not like I’m exactly the cheese standing alone, here.
And yeah, B. Jones is crap.
I don’t mean anything personal by it, but he’s nowhere near as valuable to us going forward as Raynor is. He doesn’t have Raynor’s speed or defense, so he’s going to need to hit his way onto the roster as a corner OF, and nothing in his performance line suggests that he’s up to the challenge. Career .257/.313/.365 hitter in 165 ML PA, and a career .277/.354/.422 hitter in 1063 AAA PA. I have nothing against the kid, and I hope he proves me wrong, but I’m just not seeing the skill base there for any kind of substantial career. He can’t be a power threat off the bench without hitting for significantly more power, he doesn’t have big enough splits to be a viable candidate as the strong half of a platoon, he doesn’t play any other positions to provide tactical value, he’s not a big-time runner or fielder to steal reps as a PR or defensive replacement, and he’ll be out of options at the end of the year. I guess it’s technically possible that he’s some kind of ace PH with ice water in his veins, but that could be equally true of anybody with no experience in the role, so it’s not really a selling point.
I just don’t see any kind of role for him in 2011 or beyond.
I never said B Jones wasn’t crap, and I had just responded in detail above to our main argument. There’s nothing wrong with making a glib comment once in awhile.
One thought
Tabata has another option next year, and as much as I like the guy, he’s not going to upgrade the MLB team until he shows some power. If we think that 25 man roster guys like Raynor and Milledge have potential to break out, they should get playing time in the majors while Tabata and his 5% K rate hits singles in Indy in hopes that they all break out.
Two big AB’s not withstanding, I don’t see any reason to think Milledge is much better now or has much more potential than Raynor, and I wouldn’t have any problem with them giving Raynor some of his AB.
charity standing orders
I disagree
Despite Tabata’s lack of power, he can be a very, very valuable piece to the team. He might only hit singles, and an occasional double, but his spray hitting could be a perfect complement to McCutchen.
If McCutchen isn’t on base, Jose can get a single, maybe steal a base, and get into scoring position. Tabata can be put in the 7th spot from the start. He singles, the pitcher bunts him over, Cedeno can drive him in.
Look at Chone Figgins. Speed and defense can always make up for a player’s lack of power.
http://www.points2shop.com/?ref=GJS867
My point is that unless Tabata starts looking like a 4 WAR player (walks, power, defense, whatever), we might as well see what we have in Raynor, Milledge AND Tabata instead of just Tabata and a couple extra runs in a losing season. Tabata looks to have the best chance of becoming an above average player, but if we can justify it in any way, we might as well keep him in AAA, since he’s the only one of the three who can play there.
charity standing orders
And Figgins.....
is playing second base, not left field. Tabata being down all year does absolutely no harm.
may 1
clement has to start getting some hits or he is gone by may 1, .095 not going to cut until july.
by wishiewashie on Apr 19, 2010 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd give him mid may
or about 3 more weeks. If he is still under .200, perhaps we can sneak him through waivers if he has no options? Church so far has earned a few starts in a row and I’d bring up Pearce to platoon with Churchy and GFJ at 1B/RF. Pearce hitting against all lefties and occasional RHP if he’s hot.
We are above .500, let’s put our best players out there and try to keep it that way.
Walker
Going along with getting a lot of walks, I’m encouraged that he’s actually leading the team in that category, despite playing with Pearce and Alvarez. It’s not like they’ve been facing a bunch of wild pitchers.
Obviously tiny, tiny sample sizes, but it’s good to see both Walker and Pearce possibly taking steps forward. And to think we’d basically given up on both of them.
charity standing orders
agreed on Pearce...
I would really like to see Pearce called up; as much as I can’t stand JR sitting Clement what seems to be every other day atleast if he’s going to sit him it’d be nice to platoon him with Pearce. I think that could be a very productive platoon.
Just for the record; remember when everyone called me crazy, because I thought Walker had a really good chance of being our second basemen of the future? I think I’m owed a few apologies. With Aki playing well he’s going to have more trade value than any of us thought come the deadline, and with Laroche getting off to a slowish start; Walker could come up sometime this year to get his feet wet, and possibly be our 2011 secondbasemen.
I personally would like to see Laroche make the move to 2nd, because I believe he has alot more power upside, but I think Walker could prove to be very valuable.
by FusilliJerry88 on Apr 19, 2010 12:05 PM EDT reply actions
Don't get ahead of yourself.
We’re two weeks into the baseball year, and the numbers up to this point are largely meaningless.
If Walker is able to sustain his current production for an extended period of time, he might very well play his way into a prominent role for the ML club going forward. Of course, if he does that, he’ll be satisfying the requirements of the skeptics (including me), who indicated that he wouldn’t be worth planning around untl he enjoyed a sustained period of success with the bat.
Worth noting
This makes 7 consecutive weeks of outstanding AAA production from Walker – still a small sample, but it’s not as if he has only 2 weeks of performance to point to. Best case, he keeps it up another month and forces his way up (at whose expense, I don’t know).
What I don’t want to see is another recall where he just sits – last September was a complete waste of everybody’s time.
I’d like to see him do this for at least 6 more weeks down there before getting a chance in MLB. Walker’s problem has been the inability to sustain production, and that can’t be answered in a few weeks.
by MarkInDallas on Apr 19, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think....
it was a complete waste of time. Give him a taste and let him go back and work hard. It was a reward to BE with the big league club. He hadn’t really earned the playing time. No harm, no foul.
They aren't consecutive weeks.
There was a MLB stretch where he sucked on toast in between, remember?
I said “consecutive AAA production”, now didn’t I?
And honestly, do you think that he was given any kind of opportunity in Pittsburgh last September? 6 starts in 5 weeks, exactly 2 of them back-to-back. He started out 3/14, which isn’t actually awful for a rookie, and then didn’t start again for 10 days. Talk about a small sample size.
I’m not saying he should have started 20 games that month, but that’s why I say it was a waste of time – he was given basically no opportunity to succeed. I suppose I don’t really object to the Sept. callup as “reward” theory, but it seems like a pretty shitty reward that it’s then used against the guy as proof that he sucks on toast.
No, you didn't.
You said “7 consecutive weeks of outstanding AAA production”, which is a totally different thing.
I’m not saying that the Pittsburgh performance is indicative of his level of ability. I’m saying that his Pittsburgh performance comes smack in the middle of your “7 consecutive weeks”, and that crossing out all the bits of a time sample where a guy doesn’t play well is a great way to get tainted data.
Oh come on
If they sent him to Bradenton for a week and he hit 12 HRs, would you want to consider that part of his data too? He was brought up a level and given extremely sporadic playing time. If you want to argue that this shows he’s not a major league bench player right now, then you’ll get no argument from me. But to pretend that what he did in September reflects what kind of hitter he is as an everyday player in AAA is just silly.
And for the record: if they’d played him (basically) every day last September, then I’d be treating that stretch a lot more seriously as significant. As it is, it was 40 PAs spread over 34 days – damn near meaningless (note that he already has more PAs this year).
You were the one who used the word "consecutive", not me.
If you didn’t mean consecutive weeks, you shouldn’t have said consecutive weeks. He wasn’t productive for seven consecutive weeks. He was productive for a few weeks at AAA, and then unproductive for a few weeks in MLB, and then productive for a few weeks in AAA again.
And yes, 40 PA is a relatively small sample. But so is seven weeks’ worth of starts – guys get what, 20 PA a week? You’re discarding a fairly large slice of his PT sample from the time period in question, mostly because you don’t like the performance, and that’s bad policy from an analytical POV.
EXACTLY !!!
It’s way too early to start suggesting roster moves. We’re 12 games in (even less for the minors) so making judgement calls on stats so far this season doesn’t work. If it did, the Bucs should cut Pedro, and the Yanks are releasing Texeira !!
Obviously it’s too small a sample size to mean anything, but I have to reiterate that I think that Walker’s really gotten a bum rap in general. He’s never dominated a level, but he’s held his own all the way up the ladder, making it to AAA at 21. He didn’t walk enough last year, sure, but he was only 23, and he’s only 24 now. He walked plenty in AA at 21. He’s not a top 100 prospect or anything, but I never really understood why so many people were skeptical of him. Like Vlad said, he’s not worth planning on until he proves himself in AAA, but that’s true of everyone, and there’s never been any particular reason to think that he couldn’t eventually put it together. In some ways, he’s a quintessential NH guy: first-round pedigree, now undervalued.
Walker doing well
Most people are really happy to see this. I think some may have come off stronger than intended in defending why Walker should still be in AAA. I think the reasons for those are justified. Simply, walking and therefore good plate discipline is very imp. Once Walker shows he can sustain that over 3 months in AAA, while continuing to hit, I don’t think anyone will begrudge him a promotion.
The question is: if he continues to hit like this, will people concede that he’s a potential starting 2b for the future? My concern is that people have been so negative about him for so long that even if he hits in AAA now people will only think of him as a utility player. There’s nothing wrong with utility players, but Walker could be more, and I hope people haven’t already given up on that possibility.
I do kind of suspect this
It’s hard to imagine him getting a Pearce/Moss/Clement chance to sink or swim at the big league level. If he plays well enough in AAA, he’ll come up and be treated as a utility guy, but the only way he’ll get a lot of starts is if he comes up and immediately produces like GFJones.
Unless, of course, guys get hurt/traded. But I don’t think he’ll be given a chance on his own merits unless he goes insane (like, say, maintaining a .914 OPS for 3 months – and maybe not even then).
sad
for a 24-year-old who was the #61 prospect in baseball two years ago. I find this really upsetting.
Aren't you jumping the gun a bit?
Since Walker has never had sustained success at AAA, can we be certain how he’d be treated by the big league club if he did?
I agree he sould get a legit opp. if he has sustained success, but the bridge has yet to be crossed.
Absolutely
I have no idea how he’ll be treated. I’m just worried that people have turned the corner on Walker prematurely. For instance, I love that he’s starting every day in Indy at 2b, but I’m concerned that management didn’t say, “We’re making him a 2b,” but instead said “He’s going to play all over the place.” That sounds like they think of him as a UT rather than a starter. But you’re right: we have no real idea what’s going to happen.
It looked to me
as if he’s only started at 2nd three times in Indy, 4 in left a DH one at 1st and one at 3rd and one I missed.
This shouldn't upset you
it’s only because of Pedro and how versatile Neil is. They want to continue to look at Argenis and Friday so Neil is the candidate to bounce around. It can only help him down the line imo.
If people see him as a UT guy going forward...
…I think that would have more to do with there being established starters ahead of him at all the positions he knows how to play, and him not having much real trade value due to less-than-stellar past performances. So if he isn’t going to start for us, and he isn’t going to get traded and start for someone else, the only short-term roles open to him are “utility” and “AAA depth”.
That, to me, is a problem. Aki is the only 2b ahead of him, and his contract is up at the end of the season. Why would you make Walker a UT instead of just a 2b in that scenario? It’s not a good idea to count on Aki signing an extension, or LaRoche transitioning to 2b, or Clement hitting enough to keep Alvarez at 3b or any of the scenarios that would result in Walker being blocked.
If you see Pedro as a 3B...
…then LaRoche is also ahead of Walker at 2B. I don’t see why he wouldn’t get first crack if the position became open, given the two players’ track records.
laroche
needs to hit more or he will become utility guy.
by wishiewashie on Apr 19, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
More than last year?
Not hardly, given that he was an average regular in 2009. Teams don’t make average starters into bench players.
good teams do
2b is his last shot. thats if he has range to do it.
by wishiewashie on Apr 20, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe they do for a short time.
But mostly, if a good team has an average starter they don’t need, they trade him to a team that doesn’t have an average starter, in exchange for something they DO need.
Doing otherwise wastes resources, and costs yourself wins.
dont worry about people's perception
I think the FO is smart enough to understand what the data says. I’d say Walker’s bat is the big issue they have, and if he can keep hitting, he’ll be valued accordingly. It’s not necessarily clear that he’ll get a big league shot with Pittsburgh, but they will value his potential accordingly.
If he can keep this up, I like his chances of replacing Aki in June. Or next year. The 2B situation is a very curious one in Pittsburgh, and there’s no saying how its gonna play out…
I'd like to see Pearce...
..platoon with Clement at first, and send down the 12th pitcher.
by element1286 on Apr 19, 2010 1:12 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
If Ohlie would just wear Velcro shoes
they could do this. I mean, they did come north with 11 pitchers, right? But between the implosions of McCutchen and Morton and Ohlie’s stupid injury, they’re carrying an extra pitcher, and unfortunately I suspect they’ll stick with that even once things get straightened out.
Nah....
they’d have 12 up regardless. It was only talked about because of the three open dates the first two weeks.
Yep......
At the moment that is Taschner or Lopez. I have to say it is nice having two of them. The only other option is Carrasco and let Meek swing as the long man, but I don’t see that happening. It is by far the best idea, but I think giving Clement three months to sort it out is fine.
I simply don't understand Charlie's and others argument.....
that promoting Pearce is the answer. Why? Because he hit well in Triple-A? So did Clement, and, unlike Pearce, he hasn’t been given a two-three month stretch where he was proven to be abysmal.
It just seems like people are making arguments based on two-weeks of play, essentially ignoring that the person they are clamoring for was the person who was just as bad as Clement has been (two weeks, only, though) for 2 1/2 months last year.
Pearce has proven he can hit Triple-A ball and has proven, in 3 months, that he can’t hit Major League Pitching, or more specifically, can’t handle the plate and stay away from wild swings at nothing. Clement has proven he can hit Triple-A ball and has proven, in 2 weeks, that he can handle the plate with good discipline, yet, hasn’t hit MLB pitching.
Why in the world would you clamor for Pearce instead of Clement? Based on what?
It doesn’t make sense, and, it appears, to be just as unsound in theory as those that want to bench Clement and start Ryan Church in RF.
Two weeks……damn.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Apr 19, 2010 1:16 PM EDT reply actions
Because it appears to me...
that Pearce’s approach at the plate has changed. He’s become a more patient and disciplined hitter. If he can maintain this I wouldn’t mind him getting another shot because he does have power. It should also be pointed that during Pearce’s “extended” trial last year he was playing hurt. That often gets overlooked by the people who have given up on him.
plus
he has been good against lefties. May never be that great, but would (could) be a solid half in a platoon.
What was the injury?
I honestly don’t recall that – was it something revealed later, or was it a nagging thing that we all knew about and forgot?
Pearce’s MLB stats:
378 PA, 77 K (22.5%), 31 BB (8.2%), .304 OBP, .392 SLG
Clement’s MLB stats:
277 PA, 75 K (30.2%), 21 BB (7.6%), .293 OBP, .371 SLG
So Clement deserves another chance based on minor league performance, but Pearce does not?
charity standing orders
Besides those stats being somewhat comparable....
It seems that those that are calling for Pearce to be promoted are doing so out of the belief that he was injured last year (although the Pirates were presumedly not amongst those who thought he was injured), those that are against it gave up on him last year,and that he is now a changed-hitter after two weeks at Triple-A.
My questions: To those that are in favor of Pearce being promoted, aren’t you giving up on Clement in the same way those supposedly gave up on Pearce, with even less of a sampling period? Also, you blame some of Pearce’s performance on injury, but why aren’t you making excuses for Clement, considering he is learning a new position (see DY last year), he is in a new city, he is in his first starting job, and he has only gotten two weeks to prove himself? And, finally, how do you explain two weeks of try-out for Clement, yet three months for Pearce’s tryout?
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Apr 19, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm in favor of Pearce being promoted to platoon w/Clement at 1B
Let’s be honest, neither one has really earned himself a full time major league job, but each might succeed under the right circumstances.
I really don’t see anyone saying to demote Clement for Pearce right now. From my perspective, the players are pretty similar: good power, pretty good plate discipline, shown enough in AAA to think they’d be about league average 1B, not likely to dramatically improve, flopped in lengthy MLB stints, mediocre defense. They hit from opposite sides of the plate, though, and platooning them really might be worthwhile. I’m not sure who to send down in that case, though.
BTW, I agree that the lingering injury excuse is lame, and that Pearce hasn’t dramatically improved his approach in the last 2 weeks.
charity standing orders
Couple disagreements in an otherwise solid post
Clement has shown better plate discipline than Pearce, especially at the MLB level.
Pearce has flopped in a ‘lengthy’ MLB stint, while Clement has not had one yet.
I could buy the platoon-situation more than promoting Pearce and demoting Clement. However, if that was the route, I would much rather go with GFJ at 1B and Church/possibly Tabata down the road in RF…..rather than GFJ staying in RF and having Clement/Pearce at 1b.
I want to see what Clement can do in an extended time, just as the FO has hinted they want to as well.
That ‘extended time’ has not occurred yet, despite many on here saying it has.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Apr 19, 2010 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
277 PA is a pretty good sample size, even though you could make the argument that he was rushed initially. And once again, looking at the MLB stats, Pearce’s BB% and K% are both better than Clement’s, although Clement has drawn more walks in the minors.
Ultimately both have tanked, so comparing their stats doesn’t mean a whole lot. They need to show at some point that they can stick in the majors, which neither has done up to this point.
charity standing orders
Do...
66 games and 224 PA with Seattle in 2008 not count as an extended time?? That’s more than Pearce ever got in one season. And Clement’s MAJOR league numbers (uninjured) that season… .227/.295/.360 for a .655 OPS.
Let’s ignore facts when they are convenient.
another option
jones 1b, church and dy in rf. send down clement promote walker or the other jones. much better huh.
by wishiewashie on Apr 19, 2010 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Not so much, no.
B. Jones is terrible, and while Church and Young could probably deliver a non-awful performance in RF, they don’t have any upside at all.
I guess...
the FACT that Pearce has a .920 OPS vs MAJOR league left handed pitching…has snuck right by you.
How has Clement shown in 2 weeks that he can handle the plate with good discipline?? He’s hitting .103 with 9 strikeouts in 34 PA. It’s been deemed that Walker isn’t good enough based on a grand total of 40 PA (hitting .194). Clement is gonna need to go 4-6 to get to Walker’s level.
Once again:
L/R splits for RHB are meaningless. Over time, all RHB will regress toward a 1.09 ratio between their performance vs. LHP and their performance vs. RHP. As such, Pearce’s specific performance vs. LHP in MLB has less predictive value than his MLB performance record as a whole.
Vlad....
It is correct to say “All”…….it is a predictive formula. Like everything else, there are outliers.
Yes, there are outliers.
Mostly due to the number of hitters involved. But since there’s no meaningful way to identify the future outliers in advance, it’s pretty meaningless. You can’t point to a player and say that he has a greater chance of being the outlier than any other player. As such, it’s useless from the standpoint of roster construction.
Also, the statement I made was 100% correct, though given your confusion I suppose it could have been more clearly worded. The class “All RHB” will, over time, regress toward a 1.09 platoon ratio. That’s a fact, and easily demonstrated if you want to run the numbers yourself.
Please also note that I’m not saying that a Pearce platoon is a bad idea. His overall performance record is strong enough that he’d probably be an asset in that role. He just isn’t likely to put up a .920 OPS going forward.
That should be "significantly greater chance"...
…rather than “greater chance”, if we’re being 100% literal.
So in two weeks.....
Steve Pearce has completely changed his approach at the plate and has proven to you that he is a more patient and disciplined hitter?
Leaving aside the implausibility of two-weeks being a meaningful representative sample, are you not one of the same people that are questioning the recent surge by Neil Walker? What is the difference? Both have shown, over the years – not the recent few weeks, that they are not disciplined at the plate, that they do not have a good idea of the strikezone, and that they, especially at the MLB level, have shown no signs of consistency.
So Pearce has changed, but Walker has not. Explain the difference in diagnosis.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Apr 19, 2010 1:26 PM EDT reply actions
Pretty sure it's been 6 months
since Pearce’s last major league time. That IS enough time to change one’s approach, though I’m not saying he has. I’m saying he has a 1.2 ops in AAA and can hit left handed pitching and we could use a right handed power bat at the major league level. I’m willing to wait 2 more weeks, if Pearce is still mashing and Clement struggling, I want to see a change. If Jones is still hitting .220, I’d like to see him sit against lefties so Pearce can play and give Church more AB’s while he is hot.
No reason to sit Jones specifically against lefties at this point. He’s not doing worse against lefties and is not striking out very much.
by MarkInDallas on Apr 19, 2010 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions
No…he’s just hitting .200 vs lefties this year…and .194 vs lefties for his career. Because one of the 2 hits this year happens to be a 3 run homer…that makes everything good.
Yes, but he’s hitting about .200 against RHPs also, and his Ks against LHPs are way down and BBs way up. But it’s really too early to make decisions on anything at this point.
by MarkInDallas on Apr 19, 2010 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I think I would give Clement these last two weeks of April to show some kind of sign that he can hit major league pitching. let him play against all RH starting pitching. If by the end of the month he’s still in the .100s, then let him go back to Indy and work on his stroke. Bring up Pearce and let him play everyday for about two or three weeks. If it looks like he still can’t cut it against RH pitching, move Legend to 1B vs RHP and play Church in RF. Pearce fills the bench spot vs RHP and starts vs LHP. At that point you are at the end of May and will start looking at guys like Tabata, Pedro, Clement, Walker or whoever else might be “ready” at AAA. You also will be at the point where you will be look at what trades need to be made. If Church is just a rental, he gets some time to prove he’s for real and boost his value before being dealt.
I think this is right
More or less exactly. If Clement can at least get above .200, then he buys himself more time, but there’s no point in leaving him out there indefinitely if he’s obviously overmatched and/or pressing. We have options, and it’s unlikely to benefit Clement to spend 3 months having his psyche destroyed.
I really hope we’re going to give Clement (or even Pearce) more than 20 starts to prove themselves. If we’re only giving Clement until the end of the month, there was no reason for him to be here in the first place. Similarly with Pearce, if he’s only going to get 2-3 weeks, why even bother?
Speaking for myself
I’m not looking for Clement to be a league-average hitter in 20 games or go home; I just don’t see a benefit to running him out there to get murdered. Plenty of guys come up, do poorly, get their heads right in AAA for a month, then come back up and do OK. This isn’t his first MLB opportunity, but it’s close enough.
I actually missed the idea of Pearce only getting 2-3 weeks to prove himself (against righties); I think you’d want more evaluation time (although I think the idea is that he’s had a lot of time already against MLB RHPs; if he’s still not hitting them, then perhaps his “new approach” is a mirage, and he’s a platoon guy, and we have a good platoon match for him in place, so get going with it).
In his "horrendous" time in the bigs Pearce hit...
.306/.358/.561 for a .920 OPS against lefties, showing that while in the bigs, he is MORE than capable of being an effective platoon player. People seem to not remember how good Pearce actually was against lefties in his call-up. Small sample size, (only 106 PA, plus any sacs), but I think he would be a great platoon split with Clement/GJ at first if Jones is moved there. Just saying.
All RHB regress to the same platoon split.
1.09 ratio of OPS vs. LHP to OPS vs. RHP.
That said, his overall level of offense is probably high enough to make him useful in a platoon role even after he regresses to a more typical split.
Although I don't believe in Pearce,
This could actually be a very good idea come June. If Jones shows he can’t hit lefties, but continues to feast on righties, maybe a platoon would be best for him.
Imagine if between Pearce and Jones, we had a player hitting .310/.375/.590. Pearce could actually be a useful player on the Pirates, but only if we first admit that Jones is a righty specialist.
http://www.points2shop.com/?ref=GJS867
So far this year
Jones has been decent against LHPs. He’s only K’d 3 times in 13 PAs, walked 3 times and hit a HR. Very small sample, though, obviously, but his approach has been good.
by MarkInDallas on Apr 19, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm tired of Steve Pearce.
He’s the most frustrating “prospect” we have, in my opinion. He tears up Triple-A pitching every year only to get called up and do absolutely nothing. I just have to wonder how many chances this guy is gonna get. I also wonder if the Pirates are considering using him as trade bait if he can continue to perform well in Triple A. But I don’t expect Pearce to do a whole lot if he does get called up again. That being said, surely it can’t be any worse than Clement.
I believe in Clement long-term, not short term
which is why I think we should option Jeff Clement to AAA and Recall Steve Pearce. But I think we need to give Clement atleast until about May 25th or so to prove himself. If he continues to struggle and hit like he is hitting, then we need to send him back down for more seasoning. Pearce shouldn’t be in our long term plans because let me remind you all that he has had 2 or 3 extended looks at grasping that starting first baseman job and each time he dissapointed. I think Pearce could be a journeyman/back-up 1B and corner OF eventually, but his time is running down and soon Garrett Jones will be in the infield to give that RF spot to Jose Tabata
by 2010 will be the year on Apr 19, 2010 4:37 PM EDT reply actions
What do you consider long-term? He’s not that young. My issue with Clement and Pearce is that neither seems likely to ever become a 30 homer guy, and that’s really what we need at first base. To me, Pedro is the only potentially viable first base candidate in the system, but he’s still gotta cut down on the Ks and he might stay at third. I’d platoon Clement and Pearce for now, and hope to find the long-term solution through the draft, a trade or Pedro. Can’t settle for middling production at first.
No.
no steve pearce. he has had his chance just as moss had and both failed to keep their spots. Im sorry but if you are a team trying to rebuild and on the rise then you dont keep giving players who have not proven anything more and more chances. id rather see clement play first over pearce. if all fails send clement down, move jones to first, play tabata, church or raynor in rf. but NO STEVE PEARCE!
Pearce's extended look...
All of you who keep saying this do realize that he has only had about 100 more AB’s the Clement? Just pointing out that I must have missed the Wikipedia entry that stated 350 ab’s is now the equivalent of an extended look. Pearce never got a longer look in the past because the Pirates hated his approach at the plate. They do love Clement’s approach which is why he will get an “extended” look. However, Pearce apparently has improved his approach at the request of management. If he can keep this for another month or so I am in favor promoting Pearce and cutting Raynor…especially if Raynor is not going to be used. Pearce can get starts off the bench in RF and 1B. If Clement still isn’t hitting by June/July I’d like to see Pearce get another opportunity before Church. That’s all. I’m not advocating Pearce over Clement.
Give Clement close to the whole year if needed. He could take a while to warm up like Adam LaRoche did for the first 3 months. Plus he’s always been a higher-regarded prospect than Steve Pearce (who is too short to play 1B adequately and can’t cover much OF either). Clement’s defense has been very good. Don’t cut into his time with 5’4’’ 1B Steve Pearce.
And being a higher regarded prospect is important??
That’s what got Chad Hermansen to the major leagues. It didn’t make him a better player. I’m glad that everyone is comfortable that 2 weeks makes a significant period of assessment of Clement’s defensive skills at 1B. I will keep that in mind for the future.
Indy...
going for the cycle in bad baserunning. It’s only the 2nd inning. Dumatrait pitching for Toledo.
Tabata…picked off first
Pearce…caught stealing 2nd (with Pedro on 3rd)
Pedro…out at plate on ball back to pitcher.
Just need someone to run into an out at 3B.
Lincoln
through 2 innings…0 H, 2 K…but also 2 HBP and a throwing error on a pickoff. 33 pitches, 18 strikes.
Maybe...
the Power forgot to pay their power bill ? ;)
Or...
someone left the sprinklers on too long.
sometimes you win, sometimes you lose
and sometimes it rains
Early going . . .
Indy tied with Toledo 0-0 in the 2nd. Pearce and Alvarez singled to start the 2nd (off Phil Dumatrait!), but were thrown out on the basepaths (Pearce trying to steal, Pedro thrown out at home on a grounder. Lincoln has pitched two hitless innings, but has plunked two batters.
Altoona and Akron scoreless after two. Crotta has pitched two perfect innings with a K and 5 groundouts. Negyrch’s single is Altoona’s only offense so far.
WV and Asheville were rained out.
Bradenton leads Jupiter 1-0 in the 3rd. Tony Sanchez with an RBI double. Mike Leach has pitched three scoreless, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 K.
I guess WV may not have been rained out
based on downandout’s post. Strange.
What is with Mike Crotta dominating?
I’ve seen the name before but never in regard to being a prospect.
Also, I can’t decide which offense is worse, Altoona or WV? Both teams can’t wait for June when WV will get hitters from the draft and Altoona will pick Bradenton’s lineup dry.
Lincoln...
trying to pitch his way out of a Saturday start with the Pirates.
Sanchez with a double and a walk in 2 plate appearance.
Nice to see him off to a good start.
Conversely,
D’Arnaud continuing to struggle. VERY early, obviously, but I hope he doesn’t have Brent Lillibridge syndrome. Similar profiles to this point in there careers, IIRC.
or Shelby Ford, or Brian Friday.
At least Mercer is hitting. Is he seen as not having the potential to play SS or is he just at 3B because of D’Arnaud’s presence? I hope it’s the latter.
Well, I was never excited about Ford or Friday.
But I was about Lillibridge. He and D’Arnaud were college drafted SS who put up a season with a nice disply of power/patience/speed in A ball. Lillibridge regressed after we traded him to Atlanta.
FWIW
Lincoln appears to have settled down with a perfect 5th and 6th.
Pedro
works a 10 pitch at bat and then singles off the pitcher. And as I type he steals second. Nice
Lincoln 6 IP 3ER just 5 hits but a wild pitch, 2 HBP, 2BB, and an error on a pickoff.
I don’t want to see Lincoln in MLB until he shows something better down at Indy for a sustained period.
Maybe
we should promote him for his bat?
Honestly though, it’s early and if a 4.7 ERA, 6.6 K/9 3 BB/9 is the worst we see from him this year I will be happy with that. I.E. if this is him struggling a bit and he turns it on from here it will be a successful year.
So, Brandon Moss...
Supposedly got some great instruction from his high school coach and got it all figured out. Still hitting .200.
Vinne Chulk...
doing his best Vinne Chulk imitiation tonight: 1 IP, 2ER, 4 H, 1BB. This beautiful performance raises ERA to a tidy 29.25 on the season. Color me less than impressed with most of the NRI pitchers this year.
Sadly
That performance lowered his ERA to 29.25
We’ve gone from several possible spot starter candidates to no good ones. Hart is probably the best option at this point for Saturday’s start.
Yes...
our pitching depth disappeared in a hurry. I think it’s going to be Jakublabablus. He’s already on the 40 and I think he’s been throwing the best of the options available…though that’s not saying a lot at this point.
I hope/think it's him
I’m excited to see what Jacko can do. That way Lincoln’s development isn’t disturbed and Pirate fans aren’t disturbed by Hart’s inevitable 3 2/3 IP 4 BB 3H 5ER line.
Big Bull Rider
Just recorded his sixth save for the Nats. Last batter was Brad Hawpe and he just pumped 6 fastballs 93-95 at him. 1 hit, no Ks or BBs, 25 pitches. On the season 1 ER, 5 BBs, 5Ks.
Yeah, I just watched the last batter. Looks like some movement has returned to his fastball.
by MarkInDallas on Apr 19, 2010 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions
that may be...
but with that K/BB ratio it doesn’t seem like Capps is out of the woods yet. If you remember, his calling card was the impeccable control; never walked anyone which helped make up for the laser-straight fastball.
2010: WHIP: 1.737, K/BB: 1.0
All of his successful seasons saw a WHIP under 1.2 and a K/BB over 4. in ‘07 and ’08 he had 6 and 5 non-intentional walks, respectively, all season. Basically every meaningful stat looks more like last year to me than like 07 08. We’ll see.
I think that Bradenton is clealry . . .
the most talented-relative-to-league team in the system.
small sample size blah blah blah I know....
but Bradenton is I think the single biggest positive indicator for the pirates future right now. And ridiculously exciting.
Plus, most everyone on the team—except for Locke, Adcock and Morris—are playing High A for the first time.
by Traco Bucco on Apr 19, 2010 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions
not to be a downer
but a good few people at bradenton may have come from college. So that level shouldn’t take them particularly long to master… (I can’t tell how many are college picks without looking though)
by BurgherKing on Apr 19, 2010 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you thinking of WV?
Bradenton is High A and if all these guys can get to Double A by the end of the year our system will be mighty ripe next season.
not really
I was thinking of Bradenton. Most college picks (at least the higher/well liked picks) are expected to be able to play WV right away, and high-A without too much trouble. It’s their AA performance that will be really key. Of course, I’d rather see them kill high-A competition than struggle, but it’s the next level that’s really the key. Getting to AA quick is great, doing well there is the most important thing.
by BurgherKing on Apr 20, 2010 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Tony Sanchez
I’m as high as anyone on him, but anyone have a clue as to why he’s allowed 13 SB this year without catching any?
He's DHing right now because of a stiff shoulder.
May had something to do with his erratic throwing in the last series he caught in. A lot of it could be pitchers too, you never know at that level. From all of the scouting reports though the last thing I’m worried about with Sanchez is his defense.
I like Pearce here.
Alright, so I didn’t read the epic Pearce vs Raynor debate going on up there, but here’s my opinion:
Pearce can hit lefties. This has been proven time and time again. He hits them in the minors, he hits them in the Majors. He can’t hit righties. Garrett Jones can hit righties. He can’t hit lefties. If there was ever a situation for a platoon, it’s with these two.
As of right now, I take the “wait and see” approach. Maybe Pearce falls off at AAA. Maybe Clement doesn’t start hitting. Maybe Jones falls off production wise. Best case scenario, everyone keeps hitting. At that point, I prefer Pearce over Raynor.
I agree that Raynor hit very well in the minors, but at this point I think his upside is probably established. He hits for good average and some extra base power, but not really home run power. He can probably play center. That’s a nice guy to have on the bench, but I don’t think it’s as nice as Pearce. Pearce can come in and take Jones’ at-bats vs lefties away, replacing him with his career .900+ OPS against them.
The only point at which I prefer Raynor over Pearce is in the worst-case scenario, where nobody of the Jones-Clement-Pearce cluster keeps hitting. At that point, it becomes moot anyway.
http://fanhuddle.com/pittsburghpirates
Over time, all RHB...
…regress toward the same 1.09 platoon ratio. As such, both of your statements about Pearce’s splits are incorrect.
Every RHB
has had a platoon split of 1.09? It isn’t possible a righty feels more comfy against lefties?
Maybe Pearce can hit righties a little better to keep you happy?
Then let's take advantage before they regress. Over time.
Only half-joking there.
I don’t really care for the article you keep referencing. For example, I read this:
Many of you may be asking what evidence we have of this nature that backs up this claim that everyone will revert to the mean of 1.09? How do we know that 1.09 isn’t just the cumulative sum of hitters like Mike Lowell (2,471 career at-bats vs. LHP, career platoon ratio of 1.01) and Miguel Cairo (2,012 career at-bats vs. LHP, Career platoon ratio of 1.18)?
And I don’t find anything in the rest of the article that provides evidence that isn’t at least partly the case. And,
However, to directly quote MGL on what I think is a very good point, “the so-called outliers mean nothing in and of themselves. The question is whether the number of outliers reasonably conform to the number of outliers expected by chance alone, if every player had the same ratio.”
Maybe I’m just a stupid, but why is that the question? So what if the actual number doesn’t exceed the number expected by chance. The outliers exist, as do those that are above average but not so much they would be considered outliers (if I even understand “outlier”). These players exist just as certainly as Santa Claus. Bat them against lefties.
That's the question...
…because it’s what determines whether outliers are outliers because of skill or because of variance. If the number were greater than expected, you could argue that there WERE hitters displaying the skill, and that it might therefore be possible to find and exploit them as a resource. Since the number of real hitters is the same as the number you’d expect from random variance within the large populace, however, it follows that the outliers are outliers not because they possess any special skills but because someone had to be an outlier over the specified time frame, given the number of coin flips involved. As such, there is no meaningful way to identify or predict with hitters will perform as outliers going forward, and therefore no way to gain an expected return better than a 1.09 ratio from any given hitter you might choose as a platoon partner.
As to your first query...
…he answers it with the statement, “Regardless of how well, or how poorly, the batters, as a whole, performed in the first year, they showed a remarkable ability to revert to the platoon ratio of 1.09 in the second year.”
"As a whole"
That’s not what the question asks.
I don't think you understand what he's talking about.
He’s dividing the population of MLB players as a whole into small sub-populations based on PAs. Within these populations, some have higher current-year ratios and some have lower current-year ratios, in a random distribution. If those differences were due to skill, they would persist from year-to-year, with the groups with more Lowells tending to stay low and the groups with more Cairos tending to stay high. (This is what would happen if you did the same thing with, say, player batting average.) But they don’t. Each sub-population moves back toward a 1.09 ratio. Which means that it’s not a skill-based effect.
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