Looking at MLB today I think how much luck is involved in winning.

St. Louis Cardinals got extremely lucky with the development of Pujols based on his draft position.

Milwaukee gambled at the time that Prince Fielder would beat the bad body rap and would stay motivated. Many people including Billy Beane did not think this was likely.

The A's of the early 00's had 3 ace pitchers all develop at one time. Beane hasn't been able to recreate this success because most of the time in MLB you don't have 3 studs develop all at one time. If you do its easy to look like a genious.

The Dodgers lucked out with Mike Piazza etc. etc.

It seems to me that we are going to need some luck to pull this out. We need at least 5 players to develop into star level players to have a chance at winning. Does this mean we need to gamble more on the draft?

It also seems we don't have any real power in the minor leagues outside of Pedro. Are we not valuing it enough in drafts?