Steve Pearce Likely to Return
by Charlie Wilmoth on Apr 28, 2010 1:35 AM EDT
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PrintIt's nice that the Pirates appear likely to call up Steve Pearce--a lot of us have been talking about his virtues against lefties for a while. I do hope, though, that the Bucs won't use Pearce as an excuse to mess around with Jeff Clement, who's already out of the lineup too much. Clement hasn't had much of a chance yet, and his ridiculously low BABIP (.182) suggests there's more in there than his mediocre traditional stats indicate. He also appears to have the tools to be a decent defensive first baseman. Sitting him once in a while against lefties, and at least Pearce being around probably means that the Pirates won't be starting Bobby Crosby at first anymore, but Clement should still be getting most of the playing time, at least for now. Even without his big night last night, he should be the regular at first.
Also in the article linked above is a note on the whereabouts of Victor Black, which some of us had been wondering about--he has a strained lat and will pitch next month.
* * *
I only caught the first few innings of last night's game, but there was a moment in the second inning that was pure, vintage Jeff Karstens. Jim Edmonds hit a high fly ball deep, deep, deep to center field and there was a moment when it looked like it might find its way over the wall, but Andrew McCutchen caught up with it, and no harm was done. So many of Karstens' starts turn on those sorts of plays--in the good starts, the outfielders turn those balls into 350-foot outs, and in the bad ones, they go over the wall. Last night was (finally!) a good night, and Karstens was able to stay out of trouble for nearly seven innings. Good for him, and good for the Pirates, who really needed him to step up.
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I did not realize how low Clement’s BABIP was, that is insane. I’m sure we’ll see a turn around sooner rather than later, although I’m also afraid we may start seeing Pearce taking ABs from Clement
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
BABIP?
Like my tag says I am an old school hunkie. Have not kept up with baseball stat revolution wtf is babip? Thank you.
by oldschoolhunkie on Apr 28, 2010 8:58 AM EDT reply actions
Sorry. It’s “batting average on balls in play,” and one that’s insanely high or insanely low will tend to regress to the mean.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Apr 28, 2010 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I just guessed.. batting average on balls in play? What is median number?
by oldschoolhunkie on Apr 28, 2010 8:59 AM EDT reply actions
It's always .300
Or rather, nearly all batters tend towards .300, although some exceptional batters – usually either speedsters who outrun a lot of groundouts or extreme line drive hitters – will maintain .320 or so year to year. But it’s a number that usually regresses sooner rather than later, meaning that Clement is not going to be at .182 all year, and that his “true” BA to date could be 100 points higher than it is now. He’s been incredibly unlucky, and that rarely lasts 162 games.
For pitchers, btw, it almost always regresses towards .300; there are just a tiny handful who have the skill of maintaining a low BABIP (and guys with perpetually high BABIPs are simply bad, bad pitchers).
I think you overstate it a bit for batters.
There’s more ability-driven spread than there is for pitchers.
The larger point is correct, however.
Yeah
I was going to edit more, but I wanted to get the damn thing posted.
I did think it was interesting that, per this article, it doesn’t stabilize even over a full season, although I think outlying numbers, like Pearce’s, narrow down fairly quickly.
The average around the league is between .290-.300, and that’s where most hitters are expected to end up. There are some outliers with very speedy players like Ichiro, who are able to leg out a ton of infield hits.
by Adam Reynolds on Apr 28, 2010 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Perace is and won’t be a Major League player.. Going to be nice to hear the excuses when he comes up and looks horrible.
Definitionally...
…he’s already a Major League player, in that he’s played in the Major Leagues.
Don’t fight against a tautology – you can’t win.
And if he was in the organization of other clubs, he would never sniff the majors.. Just lucky for him he is a Pirate. I will give him 12 games before he is back down in AAA after a .185 performance this time.
In 2007...
…Pearce played in the Futures Game and won the Topps Minor League Player of the Year award and MiLB.com’s Offensive Player of the Year award.
We weren’t the only ones who liked him. Guys with that pedigree make the majors in pretty much any organization.
Yeah, thus far his MLB Pedigree is great.. That .235 career average in 320AB.. Again, I can’t wait until the excuses fly and he falls on his face AGAIN this time.
Oh, these crazy excuses
like small sample size, the basis of all statistics. I sure am glad we didn’t stop using Bonds, considering his first 300 or so plate appearances were rather terrible.
Nate McLouth in 2006: .233 / .293 / .385
297 PA’s.
My expectation has been that Pearce will more or less be a right handed McLouth.
by MarkInDallas on Apr 28, 2010 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
when
when did we stop giving guys time. pearce needs a full year in the majors to develope, as does clement not call ups send downs call up send downs.. guys need stability and time to grow…
I’m hoping that Karstens’ performance inspires his teammates, especially the pitchers. He has some of the most unthreatening “stuff” of anyone on the staff (especially the righties), but he battled through adversity and kept the team in the game. It would be nice to see some of the other pitchers follow that example.
Why couldn't
Pearce take some ABs from Jones? Jones doesn’t exactly rake LHPs (actually, he’s not raking anybody right now) and Pearce does, or should, or would in my dreams. Jones was a nice success story last year, but he’s also 29 and could turn into a pumpkin at any moment, if he hasn’t already. Clement is 26 and has a chance to be Jones 2009. I’d platoon Pearce and Jones and occasionally Pearce and Clement. Would 500 PAs for Clement, 400 for Jones and 300 for Pearce seem unreasonable?
Pearce.. .237 8HR 27RBI in 342 AB with a OPS of .696
Jones.. .265 27HR 62 RBI in 460AB with a OPS of .854
Jones.. .265 27HR 62 RBI in 460AB with a OPS of .854Yeah, Pearce should never take any of Jones at bats.. I can’t wait for Pearce to fail again.. Guy is a weak link.
Career splits
Jones vs. LHPs: .185/.240/.400
Pearce vs. LHPs: .306/.358/.561
Yeah, Pearce should never take ABs from Jones. Not if you want to win ballgames.
That should have read
“if you don’t want to win ballgames.”
You can't just use Pearce's raw line against LHP...
…because he’s a RHB.
That said, you’re correct that he’s probably a superior option against them anyway.
I rarely miss your point
but I’m a little baffled by this one. Yes, he IS a RHB who rakes LHP. That’s my point: He’s a good platoon option with a LHB who can’t hit LHP.
Vlad's point
and I can say it for him, because it’s one of his favorites, is that RH batters don’t have true platoon splits – or, rather, they regress towards a mild one (1.2 ratio?). So while Pearce may appear to be extra-strong against LHPs, the great likelihood is that he’ll hit them slightly better than he hits RHPs, but that’s all.
Ah, I get it now.
Thanks.
I also know Pearce’s split vs. LHPs is based on a sample size of IIRC 106 PAs, but it’s also true that in those 106 PAs he killed ‘em. I don’t know what the Pirates’ aversion is to seeing if he can do that most of the time. It’s so rare they find a player who can do even one thing really well.
What I've read
In the paper and such, is that his approach in the majors – and really most of the time since ‘07 – has been very poor, which is why he hasn’t succeeded, and why the Pirates got down on him. He got a pretty good shot last season, and he did nothing with it. But not just his results, but also his approach, have been much more solid in Indy this year, which is why they’re ready to bring him up.
My greatest hope is that he plays well off the bench: if he gets 2 starts a week, plus 4 PH appearances, he could have himself a nice little 250 PA season.
Thanks
And a question: do any RHBs, ever, have a platoon skill? Just as some tiny sliver of pitchers have low BABIP skill? Or is hitting too noisy to find such a deviation, even if it exists?
"Or is hitting too noisy to find such a deviation, even if it exists?"
As far as I understand it, that’s pretty much the case. There are guys who have had out-of-the-ordinary platoon ratios over careers of good length, but since the number of such players is basically the same as the number you’d expect from random variation, there’s no good way to know for sure whether their ratios were due to skill or coin-flipping.
So, here’s the question. Is his LHP split his true split, and his RHP will raise to accommodate that ratio? If so, that would be pretty neat.
Doesn't usually work that way, unfortunately.
Though with Pearce’s limited PT, it’s not necessarily clear that his performance vs. RHP is reflective of his true ability there, either.
Garret Jones vs. LHP
MLB, career: .185/.240/.400 (135 PA)
AAA, career: .255/.284/.406 (652 AB)
Both of which are lower than Pearce’s career ML line, which doesn’t even reflect the fact that as a RHB Pearce is stronger than his raw line against LHB.
But thanks for playing anyway.
I can’t wait for Pearce to fail again.
Yeah, seeing Pirate players fail is really a blast. All these blowouts lately have been good times.
There is better players and one with more upside that could have been called up over Pearce.. Tabata, Alvarez, Walker to start off with.
You're in a big hurry
to get those guys up here so they can fail cause they’re not ready for MLB pitching and then you can say they suck.
Year's worth of control
for one.
For another, did they let you drive a car when you were 6?
I don’t drive now.. I am 14
But yeah, I figured bringing them up later had to do with saving a few bucks..
14
I’m actually glad to hear that, because it means you’re not locked into your cynical posture for life … yet, and you have a chance to be educated if you keep hanging around here.
The reason they don’t let you drive at 14 is because, in the experience of people who make laws, you’re not ready for the responsibility. They draw a line at 16, which is probably unfair to particularly mature young people who really could handle it. But in general, if they let 14-year-olds drive the carnage on the highways would substantially outweigh the benefits.
Not to get all parental but: You’re not ready.
Now, Alvarez and Tabata are not exactly tearing up AAA and even if they were they’re only done it for two-three weeks. Tons and tons of players can beat up on AAApitching (this thread is about one of them, in fact) but struggle to establish themselves in the majors. There’s a big leap between AAA and MLB, like there’s a big leap between you riding a bike and driving a car. Think of AAA as having a learner’s permit and having to drive with an adult in the car and having to be home by midnight etc. You have to establish to the satisfaction of the adults in your house AND in the DOH examiner that you’re ready for it, that you can handle it. Otherwise, to send you out on the road is inviting disaster.
You’re right, BTW, it DOES have to do with money. It has to do with being able to afford to hang onto the good players who DO establish themselves in MLB as long as possible, int he hope that in one or more of the six years they’ll be under our control we can put together a run at a pennant. Saving money and trying to win ballgames are not incompatible strategies.
I know I sure wasn't ready to drive at 16.
Failed the test twice, and then when I finally got my license, it took me maybe six months before I hit a lady right in the driver’s side door in a parking lot.
There are reasons for these kinds of rules.
Actually
The date has passed where they could gain 172 service days this year (except for Walker, since he was up last year). So, at this point there is only the financial advantage of avoiding Super Two status.
But anyway, Tabata and Alvarez are not ready and I want to see Walker having more sustained success before coming up.
Pearce is probably ready to get another shot, though.
by MarkInDallas on Apr 28, 2010 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, I am not a Pearce fan at all.. He had his chances.. To me he is slightly better then Brad Eldred..
You don't have to be a fan...
…but actively rooting for a guy to fail is a step beyond that.
On a personal level, there are guys on the current roster that I don’t like, but I never root for them to fail because I like winning more than losing.
Give him a break
Better he’s here than the PBC blog. He (I’m assuming he’s a he) hangs around here for long, he’ll be the best informed Pirates fan at his middle school. In a lot of middle schools. He decides to go out for his high school baseball team (or, if he’s a her, softball team), he’ll have a lot better idea of how an offense is put together, how to approach the plate etc.
He’s us, with a chance to do better those things we couldn’t do very well, IF he opens his mind and absorbs the lessons offered here every day. Not to mention the effing creative language ;-)
I didn't mean it in a bad way.
I wouldn’t expect a high school freshman to have an exhaustive knowledge of logical fallacies. Knowing his age, I probably should’ve been a little more charitable in some of my responses.
Nor did I...
it just helps me understand where he’s coming from better. I don’t think it’s a stretch to assume a 14 yr old will have a different way of looking at things than a 30 something.
Wow really?
The bully accusation? Listen, you’re kinda wrong in this situation. Pearce has the pedigree and minor league stats to warrant a call-up, especially the way he’s destroying AAA pitching right now. You’re arguing with some of the best baseball minds on this blog right now, it’s probably not gonna end well. These are guys that straight up know what they’re talking about. While Pearce’s platoon split is more likely a reflection of a small sample size than actual differences in ability (again, RHB), its still there, and it’s still worth something exploring with how bad GFJ has been against lefties.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
These are guys that straight up know what they’re talking about.
but it’s still fun to poke them sometimes…
by BlindSquirrel on Apr 28, 2010 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry if it seems that way.
I don’t mean to be. It’s fine if you disagree with me about stuff (even in cases where you’re wrong) – you shouldn’t ever feel threatened or unwelcome.
I just have kind of a bare-knuckles style of arguing when I feel strongly about something. Please don’t take personal offense.
Here's the deal:
This is fairly high-level baseball talk. It’s not The Hardball Times, with charts and graphs and pitchFX analysis and all that, but it’s still pretty serious discussion (and silly, too, and funny, as during game threads). It’s not generally a place for kids, but we don’t ostracize people your age either. HOWEVER, we are going to treat you like an adult, like you should know what you’re talking about. We respect that, though we certainly won’t always agree with your points, and in some cases will pick them apart rather roughly if we think they’re foolish. It’s up to you how much of that you can stomach.
Bottom line: If you choose to stay here, you better make good arguments and be able to support them with facts and stand behind them, not just rant and rave about the GM and the owner and let’s get rid of this guy after two weeks. And bring up everybody who’s hitting .350 this week in AAA. Most of us have been around long enough to know that that approach works rarely, but fails far more often. We’ve seen teams try it, and we’ve seen the results, and they most often aren’t pretty.
I for one hope you stick with us and learn and contribute. God knows the Pirates need all the young fans they can get, especially from the age group that hasn’t been alive for a winning season. You have a lot better chance of seeing one in your lifetime than I do in the 25-30 years I have left.
by bucdaddy on Apr 28, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You misunderstood me...
see me response above. In fact it’s quite the opposite. Given your age I’m very impressed with your knowledge of the game. Sorry if I came off as a smart ass because that wasn’t my intent. All I meant was that I understand the points your making better knowing your age. No offense meant…keep on posting.
If he hasn't already?
That’s a little harsh on Jones, isn’t it? He’s clearly being pitched around, and to his credit isn’t chasing. The avg is low, but it’s a small sample. If he hits 4 HR and walks 17 times every 20 games he plays the rest of the way, I’ll be pleased.
You're right
That was a little harsh. Still, if I had to bet that he’d either have … hmmm, how about Mike Easler’s career* (with a bit more power) or that he’ll turn into a pumpkin who, like so many players before him, had a hot half season, I’m afraid my money’s on the pumpkin. Not trying to be cynical here, just realistic.
*—I had to think for awhile. It’s just not that easy to find examples of hitters who suddenly established themselves at 29 and went on to have solid 6-7 year careers in MLB. Which works against Jones’ case. I hope Jones tears it up, because if he does then he’d be my prime candidate for a deadline deal.
Your point about Jones with 4 HR and 17 BB every 20 games is how I feel about Jeff Clement. People can bash him all they want, but he has 3 HR in 17 games, which projects to 29 HR for a full season; if he did that, a lot of people would be relatively happy with that kind of production.
Now, it’s true that his BA, OBP and SLG are below average, but as people have been pointing out, his BABIP is ridiculously low; as that moves more toward average, those stats will go up. He shows decent plate control (although he doesn’t convert that into BB), and he strikes out more than I’d like, but so do Ryan Howard, A-Rod and Mark Reynolds, and I’d take their production in the Pirates’ line-up right now.
I am a walking, talking (posting) jinx
0/5, 4 whiffs today so far.
Jones
Is getting the Barry Bonds treatment right now. He’s getting maybe 1 hit to pitch each at-bat, because their is nobody hitting behind him. I’d like to see what GI Jones could do with some protection in the lineup, because I think he is (or close to) a legit power threat.
It is impressive
Just how well he’s handled this situation. I guess he was pitched around some last year as well, but this year it’s just ridiculous – walking him to load the bases in a tie game in the 9th?
If Doumit finds himself, Jones could get real hot real fast.
They had to set up the double play in that situation, figuring that if Jones scored from first, they were probably screwed anyway. It was the percentage play.
That did occur to me
What are Hoffman’s control numbers? That’s part of the equation, although the way Doumit’s been swinging, you gotta like your chances of a GIDP.
Hoffman usually has very good command and control.
But he’s 42 this year, and at that age you can lose it without warning at any time.
Without checking
I bet he’s given up more HRs than BBs this year.
Maybe he was worse last year than I’m recalling, but his drop off the table has been astonishing.
Hoffman
8 innings this year. 14 hits, 5 HRs, 2 BBs one was intentional (last night to Jones) and 4Ks. He’s never given up more hits than innings pitched in his career and he averages just 2.5 BB/9. His career is an extraordinary story.
I remember a few time seeing Jones take the first pitch. The, when he steps out of the box before the next pitch, you can clearly reed on his reaction he’s thinking “omg, I should have hit that”.
Overall, he has a pretty good idea of what he’s doing in a better’s box.
And I bet he knows, if other teams pitch around him, at one point someboby will make them pay.
by From France on Apr 28, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I just want to know what makes everybody think this call-up for Pearce is going to be different than any of his previous ones, which were stinkers. He’s had chance after chance. I don’t see this one turning out any better. Since he’s killing the ball in Triple-A (which he always does), the Pirates should use him as trade bait.
AAA success almost always leads to ML success.
The case for Pearce centers on the belief that it will hold true in this instance, combined with a recognition that all of his past trials still don’t amount to enough playing time to be certain of his abilities on the ML level.
I do think that this shot is likely to be his last real one. If he doesn’t convert on it in 2010, he’ll be a AAA lifer.
Surely "almost always" is overstated
I know James’ whole thing that data is data, and AAA-MLB conversion rates, but it’s not as if AAAA guys are rare. Just as lots of guys fail between A+ and AA and between AA and AAA, guys fail between AAA and MLB. It’s just that guys who dominate AAA are generally able to keep their heads above water in MLB – that’s the way to bet. Just don’t put too much $$ on it.
AAA performance, properly adjusted for park/league...
…is of comparable predictive vale to MLB performance. By and large, most “AAAA” guys would approach the level of MLB performance suggested by their AAA lines if given enough rope, although it rarely makes sense for a team to do so (particularly given the associated PR concerns).
I think you're overstating the existence of AAAA players.
While I do believe there are some players who hit AAA pitching well but never can make the transition to MLB, I don’t believe this is an accurate description of the majority of players deemed as AAAA. I think the majority of players deemed as AAAA never get firmly established for reasons other than their ability to hit major league pitching, such as their team improperly evaluating them and never giving them a legit chance, their defensive deficiencies are greater than their offensive ability, failure to consider park effects/ age- relevance when evaluating what they did in AAA, etc.
I think a prime example is Nelson Cruz. He was considered a AAAA player for a time. He dominated the minors every year from 23 on, but his only semi-legit chance prior to him becoming a regular last year as a 28 year-old was a 332 AB audition at age 26. He OPSed in the high 600s that year and was banished for another season.
Yep.
Pearce is definitely the most frustrating prospect in our system. Drills AAA pitching every season only to look clueless in the majors. I definitely think this is Pearce’s last chance. Honestly, I think we’re already moved on from him.
Pearce
The only reason I think it will be different is he’s demonstrated more patience over the 1st three weeks. If he’s truly became more patient and selective it will make him more effective at the mlb level. It’s a difficult situation at the mlb level with so many guys with so much to prove. Everybody needs at bats. Given Pearce’s start he deserves a look.
Pearce might actually have pulled it all together this time. Who knows? With how bad we’re doing I would give him a little bit of playing time in RF and maybe 1 out of every 10 starts at 1B. So he would start like 3 games in a 2 week period as well as being relegated to one of our primary pinch-hitters aside from Delwyn Young
by 2010 will be the year on Apr 28, 2010 3:23 PM EDT reply actions
Heck, I'd probably give him even more time.
Say, one of out every ten starts at first against RHPs, but possibly half or more of the starts against LHPs.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
Good to see this
I think this will be Pearce’s last chance to impress with the Bucs. I suspect if he can’t make it this time around, unless Clement/Jones is traded, they’ll send him off for someone else.
Personally I think if given enough AB Pearce can and will show he can play in the MLB, if only against LHP.
Next call up should be Walker.
by Pensburgh Pirates on Apr 28, 2010 8:35 PM EDT reply actions
Pearce
Like his approach in the minors this year. We can use the offense. Hope he has a better call up this time. Go Bucs!
"Approach"
Several people have mentioned they like Pearce’s “approach” this season. What does that mean? What has changed about his “approach”?
His approach doesn’t suck, that’s what’s different.
Seriously, this means about how aggressive or patient he is at waiting for his pitch and not swinging at out of zone pitches.
by MarkInDallas on Apr 29, 2010 2:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Supposedly a better eye.
Particularly as far as chasing the outside slider.
Haven’t seen him myself, but that’s what I’ve been told.
Take a look at his walk rate for one...
the games I’ve followed Pearce is getting into hitters counts (2-0, 3-1) nearly every at bat. When you do that consistently you’re going to get good pitches to it. Pearce used to swing early in the count (1st pitch fastball) often which would put him in pitcher’s counts (0-2, 1-2) and as a result he would chast a lot of pitches out of the zone (particularly sliders/curves) which would result in outs. That’s the big difference this season. I have to say that Neil Walker has made the same changes. When hitters do this consistently they are giving themselves the best chance to succeed, they aren’t “getting themselves out.”
This is true.
And a very good point.
Check out the huge, huge count-based splits for MLB as a whole from last year: Link. The average hitter in a 2-0 count will hit .293/.521/.502 in the rest of that PA. In contrast, the average hitter in a 1-2 count will hit .186/.237/.281 in the rest of that PA.
If Pearce is working his way into more advantageous counts, that’ll be a big help to him going forward.
Alvarez replacing Andy Laroche
Alvarez is in minor leagues hitting minor league pitching and Laroche is hitting major league pitching with a 380 BA
Clement not as good as I thought
I thought that Clement could hit in the majors and I think that I am wrong.
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