Pirates to Set Roster Today
by Charlie Wilmoth on Apr 4, 2010 12:04 AM EDT
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PrintThe Post-Gazette has a good rundown of the roster, which will be set by this afternoon. Here's my best guess about what will happen (and it's just a guess, as there's still a lot of uncertainty here):
-P- Not finding any takers, the Pirates will cut Ramon Vazquez.
-P- John Raynor stays, and Steve Pearce, who has an option, heads back to Indianapolis. The P-G mentions that the Pirates could try to sneak Raynor through waivers and then work out a deal with the Marlins the way they did with Evan Meek a couple years ago, but honestly, I didn't understand why the Rays made that deal for Meek--it seemed like a gift--and I don't see why the Marlins would do that with Raynor unless they got real value.
-P- Hayden Penn also stays despite allowing two runs Saturday, because management likes his stuff and because the Pirates typically go with twelve pitchers rather than eleven.
I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of kamikaze waiver claim or something, though. If the Pirates do drop Penn, I'd love to see Pearce get that last spot on the bench--he'll at least provide competent pinch hitting, whereas Vazquez doesn't do much of anything.
UPDATE 2:31 PM: Yep. Vazquez goes home, Pearce goes to Indianapolis, and Raynor and Penn make the team. Just to be clear, in case I wasn't above, I have no problem with the Pirates keeping Penn for a while to find out what they've got. He's shown good stuff since arriving, and that's probably much more important than the actual results. He's young enough to become an effective pitcher, and he has very little experience as a reliever, so there might be room for upside just in him becoming used to the role. And as I wrote last week, I'm all about experiments at this stage. As for Pearce and Raynor, I do think it would be nice if Pearce got a chance to become one of the Pirates' top bench players, but at least by keeping Raynor on the big club, they get to keep both guys in the organization, since Raynor is a Rule 5 guy and would probably be lost if he didn't make the team.
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I'm not really that excited about any of the final four
If it’s basically down to taking two out of the quartet of Raynor, Penn, Vazquez and Pearce, I would probably go with Raynor and Penn, but I wouldn’t really get too up in arms if they went another direction. A kamikaze waiver claim seems as good as anything.
I would really like to see them cut Vazquez because 1) I don’t want to hear a season of whining about Nutting being too cheap to cut him, and 2) I think the team is better served to have someone with some modicum of potential, even if it’s the potential to be a future utility player.
I'm not really that excited about this whole team.
It’s gonna be another brutal baseball season in the ‘Burgh. This team will be lucky to win 60 games. Just bein’ honest.
Really?
I think most people don’t realize just how BAD a team has to be to lose 100+ games.
I’m not saying this Pirates team is a .500 team, let alone a contender, but I would be flat-out shocked if they lost 100 or more games.
To lose 100 games, you have to be terrible (not mediocre,… not kinda bad… but terrible) in all faects. This team has a starting rotation that will probably be somewhere around league average, a few plus defenders (Cutch, LaRoche, Aki), and some intriguing bats (Milledge, Clement, Jones, LaRoche).
Lose 90? Quite possible, even likely. Lose 100? Not gonna happen.
Yeah, but
mspirate has said it is.
So let it be written, so let it be done.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Apr 4, 2010 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Have you seen the lineup we're running out there?
This team has no offense and no power (other than Jones really). How do we expect to score runs? That, in turn, affects the pitching. It doesn’t matter if you’re holding opponents to 2-3 runs when your offense is scoring 1 or getting shut out. Look, I will be rooting for this team as hard as I root for every Pirate team every year, but I’m also just being realistic. This lineup is the same – if not worse – than the team that looked, as you say, terrible the second half of the season last year. Just don’t surprised if we lose 100. All I’m lookin’ forward this year is watching McCutchen, watching how Jones carries over last season’s success and the callup of Pedro Alvarez!
Yeah...
we know how bad a team has to be to lose 100 games. We missed it by a rainout last season.
We were up by 3 runs in that rainout game.
‘Course, with the bullpen of last year, there’s about a 50% chance of losing that game even still.
LAST year's team WAS bad enough to lose 100
The team was decimated by both trades and injuries. Significant at-bats were given to Jack Wilson, Brandon Moss, Ramon Vazquez, Delwyn Young, Steve Pearce, Craig Monroe and Luis Cruz.
The lineup fielded on opening day and the options now available at AAA are better enough that they shouldn’t sniff 100 losses. Of course some players will regress, some will get hurt… but it’s completely reasonable to also assume others will take a step forward (Cutch, Milledge, LaRoche the most likely). If last year’s terrible team could miss 100, this year’s team certainly will.
Oh, and what about pitching? That matters just a little. :-)
Guys who received significant innings in ’09: Virgil Vazquez, Jeff Karstens, Ian Snell in the rotation. And how many saves did Capps blow?
Again, assume injuries and regression… but likewise natural progression and improved performance from our young arms as well.
To view it in oversimplified terms:
If the bullpen this year can hold 4 more leads than last year’s team (a reasonable and plausible thing to believe), with all other things equal that would be a 67-95 finish. I’d say it’s also reasonable and plausible to believe that getting full seasons out of Cutch, Milledge, Jones, and Iwamura (and a 1/2 to 2/3 season out of Alvarez) plus some degree of improvement between Ohlendorf and Morton would be good for a few more wins.
Finally, there will be no mass exodus of talent via trades.
So I’ll repeat. 100 losses is NOT going to happen. If they do, throw it in my face in October and I’ll be man enough to eat my words. :-)
You won’t hear a waiver claim today. Unless I have totally misread the rules, waivers are a Monday-Friday thing. Anyone added on waivers this weekend would have been claimed no later than 1 pm Friday…or would not clear until Monday. And once the claim is awarded, they have to add him to the roster. Now…Raynor could have cleared on Friday and they could still be working out a trade or sending him back.
At this point…Raynor will either be with the Pirates, or in the Marlins system, no middle ground.
Charlie’s scenario is the most likely one. I expect Pearce will be optioned to Indy in the morning, and Vazquez will be released, or at least DFA’d.
Penn.....
Take this with a grain of salt because I didn’t actually see Penn pitch yesterday, but I might take issue with DK (and now Charlie) saying Penn flopped yesterday. Clearly some balls were hit hard. But, he threw 10 of 13 pitches for strikes, was able to locate his fastball and his curveball in the zone. He was hitting 93-96 with his fastball and throwing his curve around 77-80 (according to gameday). He threw his curveball in a variety of situations.
Again, and I said this about Meek and I said it about Veal, Penn is exactly the type of guy the Pirates should keep around for now. Trot him out there four or five times in April and see how he does. If he bombs by not showing good stuff, then let him go. But, if he does show the stuff (and his early track record suggested that he had amazing stuff) then keep him and work with him regardless of the results. When Hanrahan comes back, decide if you want him around or see if you can sneak him through waivers at that point.
I don’t think there is any chance we release him today.
My point.....
being, results yesterday are meaningless. I can’t believe that is what DK focused on. It’s about how he threw the ball. And it seems to me he threw it pretty well. Let’s have a look. View him as another Rule 5 pick. A free asset that may help the team. I have no doubt that Meek has and will help this team. And I have a lot of hope that Veal will as well. There was zero harm in having those guys around the past two years. Penn’s 25 years old. He should be on the club tomorrow.
That’s fair enough. I wasn’t really trying to suggest that the Pirates were making a mistake by keeping him, only that… he gave up some runs.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Apr 4, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m going to improve my language above.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Apr 4, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I suspect that
DK had already committed in his mind to a storyline about Penn’s audition, and short of throwing like Hart, it’s hard to have an uglier audition – even If the stuff was good. Also, plenty of guys who throw hard strikes don’t know how to miss bats; it’s far from a given that Penn’s results are irrelevant to his true talent level.
That said, clearly no reason to cut the guy based on that outing: he showed a couple things you’d want to see. Just hope we have enough time to make a proper determination. Indeed, one flaw in NH’s bullpen approach is that you don’t have the ability to send a lot of the NRIs down (some will stay but many will go), which means making decisions based on ST performances and not having as many fallbacks when you’re wrong. Whereas, if you’re pulling relievers largely from your own system, you can send guys up and down. It’s not a fatal flaw — I still like this approach — but it raises the stakes on evaluation.
by JRoth95 on Apr 4, 2010 3:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I wonder whether part of the Pirates’ idea is that Penn might benefit from a move to relief. He’s been a starter his whole career, except his brief major league stint last year (which admittedly was horrible). Plenty of live-armed pitchers have turned it around with a move to the bullpen. In fact, one thing that’s disappointed me with NH is the fact that he hasn’t tried that as part of his bullpen-building schemes.
by WTM on Apr 4, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Jack Cust got DFA’d by Oakland.
If Clement is the alternative, Cust can’t be much worse in the field, and he’d be the best power hitter on the team. I would be stoked if they claimed him.
Cust
He might help this year’s team, but he’s 30. I don’t see it happening. Doesn’t make sense with Raynor now and possibly Tabata later. Just don’t see a spot for him.
cust...
His numbers have declined a coupe seasons in a row now
He’s trending I’m the wrong direction while Clement is hopefully entering his peak. I’d think we are better off seeing what Clement has. Besides, if we don’t think Clement is the answer I’d rather see Jones at first and Church in right.
Sorry, but Clement is another Brandon Moss. I’m definitely rooting for him, but I think he’s going to flop. He’s had four or five seasons now to show what he can do and has done nothing. I don’t expect that to change in Pittsburgh.
How does
243 ML plate appearances translate into four or five seasons? He has a AAA OPS of .860 in 1343 at bats. He’s worth giving an opportunity. Your comment is just blatantly ignorant of the facts.
How does 243 ML plate appearances translate into four or five seasons?
Because mspirate says it is so. So it is a fact.
If mspirate says he is another Moss, then we merely have to count down the days until management realizes their folly, and cuts bait with him, too.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Apr 4, 2010 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I can always count on your smart comments, cocktails.
‘Preciate it man. I was right about Moss and I was right about Garrett Jones. So you might want to end the sarcasm and actually listen to me for once. But, then again, listening isn’t something you do very well.
Sarcasm? On the internets? No way!
“… listening isn’t something you do very well.”
Ah, there’s where you’re wrong (izzat even possible? gasp!). I do listen very well, and I read even better. Please don’t deign to speak for my comprehension skills.
When you write/speak in absolutes, rather than stating something as your opinion, you leave yourself open for comments like mine and others’. Especially since when you are proven wrong (as you were above by dtoddwin’s noting that 243 ML AB’s do not constitute “four or five seasons,” as you stated, or when you toss a beauty like " This is stupid. Batting the pitcher eighth — no matter what the idea behind it is — doesn’t work." to which MarkinDallas refuted [in part] “… The best we can do without a large sample size is to use computer simulations, which do say that batting the pitcher 8th produces a slightly higher number of runs long term.” ) , you don’t bother to respond. You just let it slide without reply or comment to see if it will simply “go away.”
Perhaps if you were to respond along the lines of, “I didn’t know that – thanks for pointing it out,” or some such, you would not have to read my and others’ comments and corrections of your misstatements…
You’re not right all of the time, mspirate, nor am I, nor Charlie, Vlad, WTM or anyone posting here. You’re just one of the ones who never (or rarely, if ever) admits it when they’re not.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Apr 5, 2010 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Never said I was right ALL THE TIME.
I just simply gave my opinion on what I thought about Clement and gave my reasons why (read post below if you wish). It doesn’t matter what I post, you always incorporate your tiresome sarcasm. If you don’t agree wih something I post, that’s fine (a lof of other posters don’t necessarily agree with it either). But the difference between other posters and you is the smart comments. It just gets old bro. If you don’t agree, just say you don’t agree and feel free to argue your viewpoint. But this “it must be right because mspirate said so” crap is childish. And what do you mean I don’t admit when I’m wrong? I don’t have a problem admitting when I’m wrong. However, there were things that I talked about on this board last year and both of them happened. 1) Moss needs to be on the bench, and he might not even be around next year. 2) Based on his Triple-A performance (and Moss’ dismal play), Garrett Jones ought to get a call-up and at least get a look. Check and check. Moss is gone and Jones is now our starting RF. I haven’t been wrong about anything I’ve publicly talked about on this board from last year. BUT I’m sure the time will come when I am and I will admit that I was wrong. I hope Clement proves me wrong, but I just don’t see it.
BUT I’m sure the time will come when I am and I will admit that I was wrong.
Like the two examples stated above, which you still haven’t addressed.
I’ll lighten up when you start using statements like “In my opinion,” or “I think that…” instead of phrases like “He’s garbage,” and “Just bein’ honest,” the latter of which is merely a passive-aggressive statement that has no grounding in fact.
To speak to your “read below” bit, I will admit that it’s the first time I’ve seen you use the phrase “In my opinion…” Unfortunately, as usual, you follow it up by breaking into “Did you forget about that? A team is not going to…” Again with the absolutes and “fatherly” scolding. You don’t work in a ML team’s front office, or scouting department, do you? So, to make that statement is more of your “this is how it is” type of posting. And AGAIN, MarkinDallas replies to you. Perhaps you haven’t seen his response yet, as I look at the timestamps. I do hope you’ll take the time to reply to him just as you do responding to me. It would show some marbles, for a change.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Apr 5, 2010 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I was RIGHT about both of those examples.
You’re not making a whole lot of sense. Maybe it’s you that has a problem admitting when you’re wrong (specifically Moss and Jones).
You were right?!?
mspirate: He’s had four or five seasons now to show what he can do and has done nothing.
dtoddwin: How does 243 ML plate appearances translate into four or five seasons? He has a AAA OPS of .860 in 1343 at bats.
You’re wrong there, chum.
mspirate: " This is stupid. Batting the pitcher eighth — no matter what the idea behind it is — doesn’t work."
MarkinDallas: "… The best we can do without a large sample size is to use computer simulations, which do say that batting the pitcher 8th produces a slightly higher number of runs long term."
Wrong again, amigo…
.
.
…I can see where that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. To you.
And, regarding my favoring Moss, I never (and I’d like you to find it if or when I did) said Moss should and Jones shouldn’t be playing. I did say that Moss should be playing ahead of DY.
Anyway, I shall try to just skip over your posts in the future, and maybe you can try to not scold other posters.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Apr 6, 2010 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, I WAS WRONG
I thought you were talking about Moss and Jones.
That probably didn’t hurt as much as you thought it would.
;-)
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Apr 7, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not saying he's not worth giving an opportunity.
This is just my opinion. He couldn’t cut in Seattle after being the No. 3 pick in the country in 2005. Did you forget about that? A team is not going to trade a No. 1 draft pick unless they have had enough time to evaluate him and determine whether or not he can cut it. In other words, there was a reason the guy was traded. Having said all that, I definitely want to give the guy at least a year and see what he can do, especially in a new place with a new team. But I just think we’re going to see the same thing happen to Clement that we saw with Moss. I hope I’m wrong, but I’ve just gotta feeling.
One question...
Have you watched a fairly large sample of Clement’s ABs with Seattle from 2008?
The reason Clement was traded from Seattle is fairly clear. Seattle is building their team on defense. They wanted the best defensive SS in MLB and needed to give up something to get Wilson. Clement was not seen as defensively good as a catcher and would be a defensive project as a 1B. Therefore, if you can get what you want by giving up a player that doesn’t fit within your philosophy, why not do it?
The one thing I can tell you is there was nothing in Clement’s performance with the Mariners that would tell any decently observant baseball person that he absolutely could not hit well in MLB.
I understand that.
But Clement wasn’t drafted third overall for defense. He was drafted as a big-time power prospect that everybody thought could hit 25-30 HRs a year. If the Mariners thought he could still do that, I think they would’ve given up some defense for that offensive production, especially at a corner infield spot. Look, I’m not saying that Clement can’t turn it around and still have a good big-league career, but the Mariners had 5 seasons to evaluate him and he didn’t do a whole lot. I just don’t think Clement will be the answer @ 1B. But like I’ve said, I hope I’m wrong.
I think it’s a cute idea as well, but it’s kind of hard to fit him in unless we would have went in with 11 pitchers. There’s no ignoring -20 outfield defense, either. He would be a good pickup for a bunch of AL teams, though.
by Adam Reynolds on Apr 4, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess it’s not happening now that Raynor and Penn seem to have made the team, but I see Cust as a much higher upside pickup than Penn. All Penn will be is a long reliever on a bad team, and Cust is a good bet for 25 home runs and a pretty consistent bat. He’s nothing terribly special, but I think he could be a nice addition to a team that will have anywhere from zero to four decent power options.
by Suffering Buc on Apr 4, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
He’d be even harder to justify once Hanrahan came off the DL, so he’d be a short-term player at best.
by Adam Reynolds on Apr 4, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
How is that?
Cust is 30 and clearly trending down. Penn is 25 with potential upside. There is no possible universe where Cust is higher upside at this point. He might help us win an extra game or two this year, but he is in the plan longer term. Penn, although highly unlikely, could be.
I disagree.
It would be the same principle under which Chavez was traded for Iwamura. It’s much easier to find so-so relievers than it is to find power bats. Just because Cust would be too old to stick around for too long, there’s something to be said for helping establish a team as better in the short term, and then making the team better in the long term by having helped them learn how to be “winners” (I use that term loosely).
by Suffering Buc on Apr 4, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Not quite the same
Iwamura was traded for because the Pirates didn’t have anyone else ready to play Second (D. Young doesn’t count). He’s a place-holder until either La Roche is moved over or someone in the minors is ready to take over.
Cust would be blocking someone who could potentially be with the Pirates for several years, either Clement at First or someone in the outfield. Now if you’re talking about picking up Cust for the bench, it’s not necessarily a horrible idea, but I’m not sure he’d be much of an improvement over anyone except maybe Raynor, and Raynor has a better chance of being useful for a few years while Cust is probably only useful this year.
by GreatCthulhu on Apr 4, 2010 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Cust would be an upgrade on our bench because he’s experienced and could give us big-time power. Sure, he’d hit about .210, but he’d pop one over the Clemente Wall every once in a while. I say give it a shot.
And where would he play in the field that wouldn’t potentially give back more runs than he drove in?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Apr 5, 2010 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Right field.
Right field is smaller at PNC Park. Not as much ground to cover. For a team that sorely lacks offense and power, I think the FO should at least think about it.
GFJ & Church are already lined up to play RF… where would you put them?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Apr 6, 2010 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, when they need a day off...
I’d put them on the bench.
DK indicating on Twitter
That Vazquez is gone, Pearce to AAA, Penn and Raynor make team.
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