What's Wrong With Akinori Iwamura?

by matskralc on May 15, 2010 9:39 AM EDT

I know there are already a zillion of these on Iwamura, but I quite frankly don't want this to get lost as a comment in one of the others. ;-)

I was perusing Aki's Fangraphs page this morning and noticed a few things about him:

1) His line drive percentages the previous three seasons ('07, '08, '09): 20.2%, 19.9%, 20.7%. This season: 13.3% Groundballs the previous three: 46.2%, 46.6%, 43.6%. This season: 55.1%. This confirms what a lot of peoples' eyes have been reporting: he's pounding a lot of balls into the ground.

2) His other rates are mostly the same: his BB% and K% haven't changed particularly significantly (actually his BB% has increased slightly). His isolated power is down somewhat.

3) His first-pitch strike percentage is way up. The previous three years were 55.3%, 53.9%, and 52.7%. This year, he's in an 0-1 hole 62.7% of the time. I suppose that might mean pitchers are then getting to their out pitches sooner and more frequently against him, and because out pitches are often breaking balls, he's pounding them into the ground (see #1).

4) The percentage of pitches he sees that are fastballs has decreased. The past three years: 59.1%, 65.3%, 67.9%. This year: 61.7%. He's also seeing more sliders and curveballs than he has in any previous season.

5) His out-of-strike-zone swings and swinging-strikes are not particularly out of whack for him. 17.2%, 18.2%, 14.5% the previous three on the former against 18.1% this season, and on swinging strikes 10.4%, 7.1%, 8.3% the previous three against 8.6% this season. His contact rates are similarly the same.

Putting all of that together, it would seem to me that Aki is taking an increased amount of first-pitch strikes this season, and is getting set up for more breaking balls that he is then pounding into the ground at a somewhat higher rate than expected.

I don't think there's any particular "skill" to taking first-pitch strikes that Aki could have lost (especially since he's taking more first-pitch strikes, yet increasing his walk rate), he's just been unlucky and seen a whole lot of them. Because he's in pitchers' counts more often, he sees more breaking pitches, which can result in more groundballs. And then if he gets a little unlucky with his groundballs on top of that, you've got a minor disaster on your hands.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Comments

Aki

Without looking at stats, the American league is more of a fastball league, the National league is more of a breaking ball league. Aki will see breaking balls until he hits them.
Putting him in the leadoff spot is one of the reasons he takes the first pitch so much. Moving him down to 8th in the order might actually help him.
Bringing Tabata up the first of June would be a smart move IMO, he is a leadoff hitter and we need one badly since Cutch is going to stay at 3.
IMO the Pirates put too much emphases on one stat, they like the idea that Aki takes a lot of pitches, they think it helps the rest of the hitters. What would help the rest of the hitters more would be for him to get on anyway he can.
Tabata to right field and Jones to 1B, is what I would do.

by leadoff on May 15, 2010 10:45 AM EDT reply actions

Well, I'll look at the stats...

For last year to this year, anyway. I don’t have time to get more extensive than that.

Last season, 60.2% of pitches in the AL were fastballs. Last season, Iwamura saw 67.9%. This season, 57.5% of pitches in the NL were fastballs. This season, Iwamura has seen 61.7%. The drop between leagues is 2.7%, while Aki’s personal drop is 6.2%.

So while moving leagues may explain part of the difference in pitch types that Iwamura sees, it doesn’t appear to explain it all. What about first-pitch strikes?

Last season, 58.1% of American League batters saw first-pitch strikes. Iwamura’s percentage was 52.7%. This season, 57.9% of National League batters have seen first-pitch strikes, while Iwamura’s percentage is 62.7%. A drop between leagues of 0.2%, but Iwamura’s percentage has increased 10.0%.

by matskralc on May 15, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions

bat him

8th

by bucsreport on May 15, 2010 11:09 AM EDT reply actions

Bat him 8th

from June with the Yakult Swallows.

by patthatt on May 15, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions

or bench him...

In favor of Crosby. I didn’t like the idea of trading Jesse Chavez for Aki to begin with. Batting him leadoff makes less and less sense everyday. He did get on base 2 times today which was nice, I liked Aki in Tampa, but I didn’t realize that he doesn’t field 2nd base well (even though he was a gold glove 3rd baseman in Japan), he doesn’t run well (maybe hasn’t fully recovered from the injury), and he can’t hit worth a damn. I wasn’t expecting .300, but I wasn’t expecting .160 either. Also, the outs he makes aren’t quality outs. Hell give Bobby C a shot, they obviously had no problem yanking Clement, and he actually has some upside as a power prospect, when he makes contact that is. Remember when the Bucs had TOO MANY MIDDLE INFIELDERS?

by SovietColonel on May 15, 2010 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, I'll look at the stats...

The first pitch is unimportant if you are leading off and you think your job is to take pitches so the rest of the lineup gets a look at all of your pitches.
If Aki took the first good pitch he saw and hit it/swung at it, that would be different, but he does not do that, so the best thing to do with him is get him out of that spot and change that mind set.
If it is in there, first pitch or not, hit it.
One other possibility with Aki could be he is getting into pitcher counts (I agree that he is) waiting on his pitch, sometimes it comes and sometimes he misses it, but either way, he appears to get one swing at his pitch or the pitchers pitch.
John Wehner said he may be flying open, it is hard to tell with the way Japanese hitters swing, because they seem to be falling away all the time.

by leadoff on May 15, 2010 12:02 PM EDT reply actions

I think Aki has been swinging at a lot more first pitches lately, so maybe he is thinking that is part of the problem as you suggest. He’s just not getting the results on those.

by MarkInDallas on May 15, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Pitchers pitches

all of your pitches.

Should have posted all of the pitchers pitches.

by leadoff on May 15, 2010 12:04 PM EDT reply actions

The first pitch strike percentage thing has been kind of interesting with him. He’s not really swinging at pitches out of the zone or anything. Pitchers have just started throwing pitches in the zone first pitch every time and he seems to have reacted by swinging at the first pitch all the time, but he’s not getting any hits out of it.

by ElDuce on May 15, 2010 12:20 PM EDT reply actions

One huge stat that was left out....

In an otherwise great post: BABIP. Aki has a .189 BABIP, while he has had, from 2007-2009, lines of .355, .337, .349.

Huntingdon has a lot of basis to conclude that Aki has been a victim of bad luck, rather than regression of skill. However, from the ‘eye test’, when he has hit the ball in play, it hasn’t been hit hard (besides the first 10 games of the season), and, as alluded to in this original post, most of them have been on the ground, often rolled over to the second baseman.

While ordinarily I would think that his results are bound to improve, he just isn’t hitting the ball with any type of authority. That, in my eyes, is the most troubling aspect of his first month and a half performance.

by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on May 15, 2010 1:04 PM EDT reply actions

What's Wrong With Akinori Iwamura?

A damaged knee that limits him at the plate and in the field and excess weight that worsens his play.

There’s no sense in having an endless debate about his 2007-09 numbers prior to the injury and the likelihood of reverting to what he once could do when he’s obviously not the same player physically and shows no progress in getting back to his old form.

by patthatt on May 15, 2010 3:11 PM EDT reply actions

I agree...

and all this points to an inescapable — albeit distasteful — conclusion: DFA.

"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway

by SubLime on May 15, 2010 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, he’s mostly hitting weak rollers. Seems more likely that he’s not getting good leverage thanks to his gummy leg rather than he’s just been “unlucky.” Add in his utter lack of speed, and we’re basically batting a pitcher in the leadoff spot. If I were a betting man, I’d say he goes on the DL when Walker comes up on 5/20 and then does the Donnie Veal shuffle maximizing his rehab time in the minors while they try to find a way to get some value out of him.

At least Clement is showing some signs of life.

by Aphthakid on May 15, 2010 7:41 PM EDT reply actions

why is nobody talking about calling up Neil Walker?

I don’t follow the Bucs that closely, but Walker is playing second base in AAA and he’s scorching hot right now. 329 / 395 / 600 and 10 steals without being caught. Isn’t that at least worth a look?

Is there something I’m missing? Horrible defense?

Hey Tom - It's over now, so do you know how - to pick up the pieces and go home?

by tricer on May 16, 2010 11:37 AM EDT reply actions

Everybody is talking about it...

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2010/5/13/1471322/walker-watch-countdown-to-may-20

by C4M4 on May 16, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, it's been getting a fair bit of play.

Just not in this particular thread.

by Vlad on May 16, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Aki

Is a case study on why you cant just look at the WAR he put up last few years and assume he’ll do the same on a team like the Pirates.

by Deadstar on May 16, 2010 3:36 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t really think WAR or the Pirates have much to do with it. Although, getting traded to a team like the Pirates might have depressed him. But seriously, he signed with the Rays when they were horrible.

by MarkInDallas on May 16, 2010 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

He signed with the Rays because they made the highest bid for him

to his team in Japan, the Yakult Swallows.

We just didn’t get the player we expected this year. And I think some part of the blame has to fall on the Pirates’ front office and their scouting staff as well.

I suspect he’s accomplished just about all he ever hoped for and more in his pro baseball career in both countries.

He should be proud of what he’s accomplished, but it looks like his MLB career is going to finish on a major downer.

The knee injury, the excess weight and lack of motivation to get properly prepared for the season…Akinori Iwamura looks almost done to me as a ballplayer. Without some major improvements very soon, there’s no reason to even keep him on the team.

Maybe he will get motivated to work hard enough to salvage another decent year or two back in NPB.

Or maybe not.

One way or the other, the Pittsburgh Pirates need to move on and find someone who can play second base adequately this year, and who will be the guy going forward in the next one.

by patthatt on May 16, 2010 5:46 PM EDT reply actions