Pirates Should Demote Charlie Morton
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 18, 2010 3:35 PM EDT
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PrintThis has probably reached the point where it's obvious to most of you that Charlie Morton should be demoted, but I'll spell out the reasons anyway.
I'm probably more tolerant than most of young players who don't produce right away, because I'm trying to take a long view of things. Most fans make too much of small sample sizes and aren't too concerned with anything other than whether their team is winning. The fact is that for a team in the Pirates' position, major league playing time is a very valuable resource. It can help players who have nothing left to learn in the minors to keep learning, and it can also help front offices learn about players. So we shouldn't be in any rush to demote a young player just because he has a few bad games.
There comes, however, a point at which a player is so bad he crosses a threshold, past which 1) it's unclear what he's learning in getting destroyed over and over, 2) in the interest of basic decency, the fans just shouldn't be made to watch him. Morton is past that threshold. A 9.68 ERA in eight starts is just ridiculous; he's in John Van Benschoten territory here.
Plainly, Morton has great stuff, so much so that it's become a cliche to even point that out. But his command (particularly of his breaking stuff) is bad, or at least intermittently bad, and he pitches horribly with men on base. In the past, I hadn't wanted to send him with the minors, because of sample-size issues and because we needed to see him a few times before we even knew why to send him there. Now we know. Morton can work on those things in the minors, so it isn't like the Pirates would just be banishing him there for no reason other than being awful.
Even before a ten-strikeout performance for Indianapolis yesterday, Brad Lincoln had been making a credible case for a look in the big-league rotation. Not an overwhelming case, but a credible one. He has a 3.83 ERA now, to go with 39 strikeouts and 12 walks in 49.1 innings. He has allowed seven homers, which is a bunch, and five of those were against lefties, who have hit him pretty hard all year. His changeup probably still needs some work for him to really be functional against big-league lefties, and there's no guarantee that he wouldn't come to the majors and get rocked like Daniel McCutchen, who's similarly flyball-prone.
In short, Lincoln isn't perfect, and he isn't a finished product, and I still don't see a ton of upside there in the long haul. (Describing him as part of a "big three" with Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata is kind of ridiculous; Alvarez and Tabata are much better prospects.) I do, however, think Lincoln has a decent shot at pitching competently for a while, which would give the Pirates and their fans a break while giving Morton a chance to work out the kinks in the minors.
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its getting to the point now
that when I see it is his turn in the rotation I turn the game off and decide to sit in a dark room and pull my own finger nails off with plyers while cutting my balls with a small razor……..Morton is just horrible to watch, because you know its going to be bad. JR has to be getting tired of the same song and dance at the press conference….“We Like Him, We are sticking with him” I think JR will snap one day.
The ball just got bigger and bigger and then BAM it hit me.
No Brainer!
Yes. He hasn’t been able to get anyone out in 7 of 8 starts! On any other team he would have been waived and out of baseball.
Are you saying
that Lincoln isn’t the All-Star caliber player that Pedro and Tabata are, or are you saying that the guy’s just a filler? Because my sense is that the guy slots pretty neatly as a #3 SP, which is clearly not All-Star material, but is pretty damn valuable. Arguably, he becomes our second-best pitcher the day he arrives (more likely, he takes a year to learn to handle lefties, which would put him as our third- or fourth-best for the time being).
Put it this way: the vast majority of prospects, even at AAA, don’t become ML regulars for more than a year or two. All evidence points to Lincoln being a decent ML starter for 5+ years. For him to be arriving at the same time as a (presumptive) perennial All-Star and solid leadoff man shouldn’t diminish his likely impact on the team. Insofar as he’s pushing a #5 starter out of the rotation, he’s worth a handful of wins from the get-go.
Lincoln’s better than just filler, but honestly I see #3 as more like his upside than his likely outcome. The struggles against lefties, his strikeout rate, his flyball tendencies and his age are all marks against him, in my view. He’s still a fine prospect, but I don’t think he’d get nearly as much attention if he weren’t a #1 draft pick.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 18, 2010 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Lefties
Clearly that will make or break him. The flyballs are a concern, but the bottom line is that he’ll get shelled in far too many starts if he can’t get lefties out. I’ll admit that I’m just being blindly optimistic that he’ll figure out a way to do so within his first year.
Don't forget to give back a little extra value...
…for him having an above-average bat by pitching standards.
I think Lincoln is going to struggle with homers a lot in MLB. Yesterday he pitched very well, striking out a ton, and yet, there were many fly balls hit to the track, and one over the wall which lost him the game. Unless he can learn a new pitch, I’m kind of down on him.
I’m going to post up the start later so you can see.
by MarkInDallas on May 18, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
Pedro certainly has the tools to be a future All-Star. Who knows whether he can put things together to do it or not. Tabata has a long way to go before he can be in the All-Star potential conversation.
by MarkInDallas on May 18, 2010 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
All a player has to do to be an All-Star is put together around two-three red-hot months to start the year. Seems like Tabata is very capable of that to me.
by Adam Reynolds on May 18, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
all he has to do is be better than the rest of his team and then he will be appointed by the coach.......
The ball just got bigger and bigger and then BAM it hit me.
His future team ain’t exactly a stumbling block, either.
by Adam Reynolds on May 18, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I feel Tabata has a better shot
I think Pedro might go the way of Alex Gordon ….. Except Gordon had better AAA numbers
The ball just got bigger and bigger and then BAM it hit me.
I messaged a scout that ripped apart Gordon, and he didn’t see any red flags on Pedro. Until I have good reason to be pessimistic on Alvarez, I won’t be.
by Adam Reynolds on May 18, 2010 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I used to see Gordon play for Wichita in 2006 often and he was an absolute stud
What happened?
The ball just got bigger and bigger and then BAM it hit me.
Injuries, plus his swing has too many moving parts and that has kept him from stardom. That said, I think if the Royals gave him a shot now that he would be at least league average at third base around (close to what Andy LaRoche has done).
by Adam Reynolds on May 18, 2010 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow, seriously?
You’re comparing Pedro Alvarez to Alex Gordon? I think you might have lost ye marbles.
Also, Gordon skipped AAA before getting his shot in the majors. I think that’s overblown as a reason Gordon has struggled in the Majors, fwiw.
by Adam Reynolds on May 18, 2010 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re saying a .300 hitter who can steal 15-20 bases before the All-Star Break isn’t going to make the All-Star team? Even if the power never comes, Tabata is good enough to be an All-Star. That has more to do with the game being a joke than with Tabata, but hey.
http://fanhuddle.com/pittsburghpirates
Let’s wait and see if he can actually hit .300 in MLB. I’m not saying he can’t, and I’ve been pretty high on Tabata. But I think there are substantial questions about his ground ball rate that make me less sure now than I was some time ago.
Also, a .300 singles hitter is not necessarily All-Star material at a corner position. Very rarely I would say unless he is hitting .330+. If you only hit 20% XBH, you have to hit around .330 to be an above average hitter.
by MarkInDallas on May 18, 2010 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
The D should help
He’s supposed to be a plus defender, right? What’s his arm like? Don’t think I’ve heard much about that.
Frankly, with Cutch and Pedro on board, Tabata shouldn’t expect to see any All-Star appearances, unless he really comes around. I know I’m the one who used the term first, but I mostly meant as a general level. Tabata certainly figures to be as good or better than the average Pirate All-Star of the ’00s.
Arm is good.
That’s why he’s usually projected as a natural RF.
I don’t know that I’d project too many All-Star games for Tabata, even if he earns them on the field. How many did Brian Giles make? Two?
To clarify:
I just mean that most All-Star managers generally don’t bother to pick the most deserving Pirate. They just slap one on the roster where they have a hole and call it a day. And it’s not like we’re going to be winning many fan votes.
no he doesnt
All Tabata has to do is hit for some power according to everyone. Everything else is there but “he shows no power” is his only knock. Tabata will be an AllStar.
So true
I can’t see him translating into the MLB. He has never dominated a level and to see him as more than a 20 start pitcher with a career 3.99 ERA is a stretch……but……It would be more fun to watch a young guy rather than Morton and Burress.
The ball just got bigger and bigger and then BAM it hit me.
The statistics have been disappointing, and the video I’ve seen is also disappointing in the context of only having 2 MLB pitches. I’m not marking him down for 5+ anything, although he at least has a shot if he can adjust.
by Adam Reynolds on May 18, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
BTW
I agree that the guy clearly has fundamental issues to address, not just acclimation to ML competition. And I trust the Pirates development people to make sure that he actually fixes his problems and doesn’t just rely on his world-historical stuff to strike out has-beens and never-will-bes.
Also: JVB, I called it long ago.
Charlie makes me angry
but how can we have Delwyn young as our lead off hitter and 2b….. he couldn’t be a bat boy for most teams.
So he had a lead off homer…..lightening strikes …….every dog has a day……..
The ball just got bigger and bigger and then BAM it hit me.
I think he means the Charlie with the 9.68 ERA.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
by wg1of5 on May 18, 2010 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Is it possible...
They want to make sure Delwyn gets a plate appearance before he has to think about fielding?
is it possible?
Is it possible anyone is worse than Aki I’mmanure? Let’s pinch hit his .165 stink some more.
is it possible
Sorry. It is possible. A no hit, no field 1st baseman sharing the right side of the infield with I’mmanure.
Send Chuck down...
and ease up on DY. It isn’t his fault that he isn’t an infielder and the Pirates are using him there – he wants to play and get a check. We’ll see how much JR plays him in Aki’s absence, but if he can crank a few homers and drive in a couple here and there, that is an improvement.
fun facts about the Pirates and Charlie Morton in 2010
the Pirates’ record in all games so far in 2010:
16-22, with a -103 run differential.
the Pirates’ record in games that Morton did not pitch in:
15-15, with a -54 run differential.
Charlie Morton is currently the worst starting pitcher in MLB, and while he might have “ace stuff”, he has been remarkably unable to get hitters out. Maybe he can learn to pitch inside in Indianapolis.
He’s “worst” in the same way that Livan Hernandez is 3rd best…
Look, Morton had 3 solid starts going into yesterday before losing to the Phillies. Lots of starters lose to the Phillies, and get beat up in the process.
It wouldn’t be a travesty if Morton was optioned, but Nothing will be gained by giving Brian Burress, Brian Bass, Jeff Karstens, or Daniel McCutchen more major league opportunities. Morton has already shown he can kick AAA’s ass, and the peripherals at the major league level still aren’t bad.
by Adam Reynolds on May 18, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. The guy can’t have a strand rate below 50% perpetually. Even if he leaves pitches in the middle of the plate, the defense has to turn some of those balls into outs eventually.
http://fanhuddle.com/pittsburghpirates
I didn't even think Morton looked bad last night at all
Stuck in my head is the Howard at bat in the third, when Morton made what I thought was a great pitch to Howard (in what was a well-pitched at bat for Morton), jammed him on an inside fastball, and Howard managed to fist a single just past the shifted Andy LaRoche to plate two runs. He struck out 3 and walked 0 in 4 innings, surrendering one HR to Werth that happened to come with two men on (in an inning that should have been over, since it came immediately after the Howard at bat that I thought Morton “won”). He threw over 2/3 of his pitches for strikes, too.
That’s just the kind of year Morton’s had in his whopping 35 innings so far.
the location was fine
outside corner. A little up and Werth is arguably the best hitter in the majors this year so he did what he does. You failed to acknowledge his other points either.
If it was outside corner
Then I take it back – I had understood it to be a lot fatter than that. The reason I ignored the other points is that it’s bogus to point to “luck” when the pitcher throws one down the slot to “arguably the best hitter in the majors this year.” That’s not luck, that’s execution. But if he didn’t throw it down the slot, then it’s moot.
In play, run(s)
I always fear the delay between pitches. Like Gameday needs extra time to ring up all the runs.
Problem was the predictability of it, not the pitch itself
If you throw 6 straight pitches on the outside corner, the batter only has to look for pitches there. If you come in once in a while, he can’t key on it.
by MarkInDallas on May 19, 2010 3:09 AM EDT up reply actions
with all due respect, how does your reply address anything in my post?
Baseball-reference.com can rank starting pitchers based on average game score. you will notice that Morton is at the bottom of the list. Livan Hernandez (who has nothing to do with this thread) is at #12.
secondly, the idea that “Nothing will be gained by giving Brian Burress, Brian Bass, Jeff Karstens, or Daniel McCutchen more major league opportunities” is a straw man (the proposed replacement in the original post is clearly Lincoln), that likewise has nothing to do with Morton’s abysmal performance.
Isn’t the point of replacing Morton to not replace Burress, a worse pitcher who is also currently in the Pirates rotation?
The point with Livan is that he is killing them with the surface numbers, but that doesn’t exactly make him a quality pitcher.
by Adam Reynolds on May 18, 2010 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Burres may be the worse pitcher — clearly, he has a lower ceiling than Morton, and might be at that ceiling right now. Given that, half of Burres’ four starts have been above average. In contrast, Morton is digging a hole deeper into the floor with almost every start, with only one above average start out of eight (his win).
Unlike Morton, Burres is willing to throw inside, which may account for his higher average game score (among the Pirates’ starting pitchers this year, only Andrew McCutchen has a worse GmScA than Morton). and who knows, maybe Morton can learn to throw inside at Indianapolis, and then re-take his rightful spot from Burres/Karstens/whomever.
Once again you can't count
3 quality starts for Morton /8 is 38%, compared to Burress 50%. Not really much difference once you consider how much better Morton is, how unlucky he’s been and that he’s 3 out of his last 4 as well and the 1 non was against the best offensive team in the league…
I can count just fine; you need to work on reading and comprehension.
I used GmScA, NOT quality starts (a far inferior metric), to compare Morton and Burres. See my post immediately below for definitions/examples of GmScA, where 50 = average.
And you’re seriously going to try to bring “luck” into this analysis? Good “luck” with that.
Yes, I am.
You going to demote a guy with a 27.00 era who strikes out 15 guys a game but guys bloop or fist singles over the infield all day long? That to me shows the pitcher is beating the hitters and will be fine. But, ya know, I’m sure the robot with the calculator fits your defense better than actually watching the games.
a pitcher with a 27.00 ERA is REALLY "beating the hitters?"
then STOP THE PRESSES! INDUCT JOHN VAN BENSCHOTEN INTO THE HALL OF FAME RIGHT NOW!
Sorry, but you just lost all credibility with that post. I’m going to ignore your painfully ignorant trolling from here on out.
FYI, here are definitions/examples of "average game score"
So you are saying that the defense magically gets worse when Morton takes the hill?
Or can GmScA be used to at least reliably compare starting pitchers on the same team, where the defense presumably doesn’t hurt or help one pitcher over another, assuming each pitcher has about the same number of starts?
Ace Stuff
The Pirates have has a few pitchers in the last 18 years with ace stuff. Most of them have panned out. Maybe command and control should be a higher priority on the Pirates wish list. They surely haven’t had much luck teaching it thru their system in the last 18 years
We can promote Daniel Mccutchen again if you like
He didn’t pan out too great earlier in the year though.
LOL
I first read the title of the post as “Pirates Demote Charlie Morton” and as I read through the comments I thought they had and Lincoln was up. I thought he had pitched fairly well recently with the exception of last night.
Wait, what???
Charlie Morton’s xFIP (which is a much better indicator of future performance than ERA) right now is 4.09. 4.09! 4.09!!!
He is getting murdered by a few things, all of which have pretty good odds to normalize soon (i.e. aren’t really his fault):
a) an absurdly high HR/FB rate of 20.5%. This isn’t something pitchers can generally control, and normalizes around the league average over the long term. Twice as many home runs have been hit off Morton than would be expected given his GB/FB rates.
b) an absurdly low strand rate. Pat wrote about this at WHYGAVS? Morton’s runners are scoring because of 1) more home runs are being hit off him than expected, 2) the bullpen, and 3) statistical clumping.
c) his defense is surrendering a .387 BABIP.
Morton has nothing to “figure out”. His K/9 this season is 7.64, his BB/9 is 2.55. His HR/9 is 2.04, and again that’s a function of a ridiculously high HR/FB rate, which pitchers generally cannot control. This might be the first time I’ve ever read something from you, Charlie, that I think is completely and utterly off-the-wall cRazy. :-)
Said this before
Guys who pump belt-high fastballs down the middle of the plate have no right to expect their HR/FB rates to regress. Remember when Hamilton was at the HR Derby? Do you think that his pitcher was due to regress? Morton this year has, more often than not, responded to adversity by throwing BP fastballs at the opposing team’s best batters. He himself admitted as much after the AZ game. This is not a fluke. This is what he needs to learn not to do.
The problem is
That while absurd stats almost always normalize sometimes they don’t, see Jones, Garrett F 2009, and oftentimes there is a good underlying reason that they don’t.
Sending Morton down for a look at AAA shouldn’t be discounted out of hand simply because his numbers should regress to the mean…they might not.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on May 18, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
What's Jones hitting this year?
Oh, yeah, that’s right: .254/.353/.433
Seems like he normalized just fine.
by Vlad on May 18, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Interesting....
debate with his excellent K/BB rate. Is the fact that he is walking so much effecting his SLG?
Hard to say.
Could be that pitchers are working him more conservatively, now that they fear him a little, so they try to paint the corners a bit more and thus miss the zone a little more often. Or that they’re throwing fewer balls in his kill zone, now that there’s a book on him among the league scouts, so he’s compensating by being more patient and waiting for that cripple pitch.
He’s also seeing a higher fraction of his PA against LHP, and he isn’t as strong against them, which could be part of the drop.
I hear a voice from the Great Beyond
If I’m supposed to be reassured because Morton’s regression is due in 2011… I’m not.
Since I’m a pretty vocal defender of Morton and now I’ve been invoked, I’ll chip in here.
Morton pretty clearly does have stuff to figure out, specifically in the “runners on base” region of his game, but since we had pretty good evidence earlier that he was tipping his pitches, I’m guessing that’s still a problem. I wasn’t watching real closely last night, but I know in his good start against the Cubs he started out making a conscious effort to avoid what he was doing to tip, but as the one rough inning he had that night wore on, he slipped back into bad habits and almost got burned that night. I’m guessing something similar may have happened last night.
The problem with demoting Morton, I think, is that he’s at a point where he’ll eat Triple-A hitters alive. It’ll be like when Snell was demoted last year; I’m just not certain there’s anything for him to learn from destroying inferior competition. As was noted tonight, he made three pretty good starts before last night and as I said on my site, he pitches well in some innings even on the nights he gets shelled in his bad innings. His struggles are something that have to be fixed with the Pirates and he has to keep pitching, I think.
http://www.whygavs.com
http://mlb.fanhouse.com
It’s pretty easy for guys with 9 ERAs and WHIPs of 1.77 to post reasonable K/9 numbers, since they’re facing so many more batters. His K:BB is obviously good, but I don’t think control is his problem, it’s command—he’s giving batters way too many cookies, in part because he can’t place his curveball. You mentioned that pitchers don’t have much control over HR/FB; I don’t know anything about how much control pitchers have over their HR/FB rate, but if they do have some control, I would bet that Morton’s is high for a reason.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 18, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
They actually do have control...
Tango made a post on The Book Blog about this a few weeks ago, but I don’t have the link right now. As I see it, the reason why xFIP might appear to be more predictive than FIP is not because pitchers lack control of HR/FB ratio but because there is often more noise than signal in datasets considered given the sample sizes. Since xFIP regresses this 100% of the way it will appear better.
That said, Morton’s history prior to this year (in both the Majors and Minors) has been that he was quite good at preventing home runs. He could be doing something radically different, or he could be getting extremely unlucky.
Fangraphs has his fastball (-11.4 runs) as the pitch that’s being demolished, though the curve (-3.0) isn’t good either (they were both plus pitches last year).
In any case, I’ve seen a lot of scout speculation that his pitch selection this year is awful, so let’s put Jason Jaramillo back there for one of his starts and ramp up the cERA debates again!
http://www.whygavs.com
http://mlb.fanhouse.com
I’m still not sure what I think of valuing pitches that way. It’s too results-based and not ability-based. I know that’s the argument you were really going for (his fastball’s getting the poor results), but it doesn’t say much about why his results are so poor. Could be poor location, could also just be too much Ryan Howard fisting a good, well-placed fastball through a shifted infield to score 2 runs with 2 outs. :-) The dude hasn’t even faced 200 batters yet this year.
K rate
I used K/9 because K% would unfairly punish Morton for having to face more batters because of the poor defense behind him (.387 BABIP!). Expressed as a percentage of batters faced, Morton’s rate is 17.2% while the NL average is 18.4%. But again, Morton’s will be depressed because the extra hits (that aren’t his fault) mean extra batters faced.
And as Vlad said, pitchers have almost no control over FB/HR rate. They can control their GB/FB rates, but what a FB does when it’s in the air is more or less up to the batter, not the pitcher. Morton’s given up twice as many HRs this year as would be expected.
Speaking of Morton’s HR, I went and looked up how many men were on base for each:
Apr 9: 3 men on
Apr 14: 1, 0, 2
Apr 25: 0
Apr 30: 1, 2
May 17: 2
So not only is he giving up twice as many HRs as you’d expect, half of them came with at least 2 men on base. I’d wager that half of all home runs are not, in fact, 3-run jobs. :-)
Normal HR value is 1.4 runs, so you are correct.
by MarkInDallas on May 18, 2010 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
And Morton’s average is 2.4 per (2.375 to be needlessly precise), so that’s about 8 extra runs just right there. Turns out that that bit of just dumb luck (there really isn’t any other possible explanation..there is no “giving up 3-run HR instead of 2-run HR” skill) is adding a good 2 runs to his ERA right now.
there is no "giving up 3-run HR instead of 2-run HR" skill
“So after I gave up some hits, I decided to just pump fastballs down the middle.”
I suppose I should look up the quote, but, seriously people, the man himself acknowledged that his response to adversity is to throw batting practice fastballs. And, again Vlad, you say that pitchers have no control over HR/FB rate, but batting practice pitchers actually give up far more than 10% HR/FB. The reason “everyone” regresses to 10% is that guys who give up 20% on the merits get sent down, as even patient, seamhead bloggers beg for them to be demoted.
I’ll full admit that some of the HRs are surely luck. But I’m not buying that a guy who obviously is not right mentally, and who admits throwing fastballs down the middle when he’s in trouble, has been unlucky in fully half his homers. And the fact that he is more likely to throw fat fastballs when there are runners on mean that his runs/HR rate should be higher than normal.
Oh I"m sorry
Did that one not count? Is our record actually 16-21 because bad first starts are given mulligans now? Did Morton not know that the game would count when he decided to react to adversity by being an idiot? It’s not like it was the guy’s first ML start – not by a long shot.
by JRoth95 on May 18, 2010 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
But why would that affect the rest of his season?
If he said today, “I’ve been throwing fastballs down the middle all year” the quote would mean what you want it to mean. I just don’t see what it has to do with the rest of his good or bad starts this year.
I just meant that if you face five batters an inning and strike out an average of one per inning, you will have the same K/9 as someone who faces four batters an inning and strikes out an average of one per inning, even though the second pitcher is striking out batters more often. For someone like Morton who has a WHIP of 1.7 or 1.8, K/9 isn’t a particularly good stat to use.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 18, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
If you strike out 20% of the batters you face...
…facing more batters per inning (by allowing more hits on BIP, say) will give you a higher aggregate K total.
Where to start...
first off you are really selling Lincoln short. Most scouts see him as having a #2 ceiling. Granted his floor could be the bullpen but that ceiling alone makes him as interesting to me as Jose Tabata. We should bring him up when he is ready and not because the player ahead of him on the depth chart is strugging. If we did that with all of our prospects than Tabata would be starting for Milledge, Pearce for Clement and Walker for Aki. Now I don’t necessarily have a problem with Pearce and Walker playing but I feel that Tabata needs some more seasoning to help him reach his ceiling better, the same is true for Lincon. Hell, outsde of Morton no pitcher in Pittsburgh has better stuff. That right there is reason enough to let him develop properly. Bad idea. I may be more inclined to agree with you if McCutchen were healthy but not Lincoln.
Anyway on to Morton. He has nothing to learn in AAA. If his problem now is being able to pitch through tough situations he’s not going to get that in AAA. Is his stuff is too good there. He can get not have top notch command in AA A and still dominate. Charlie has to work this out in the show or move on. None of the reasons you suggest. Without reading every post before posting this one, Charlie’s xFIP, FIP and tERA aren’t anywhere near has bad as his ERA has been. I’ve watched every game and while it has been frustrating to see him collapse, he has also been the victim of bad luck and poor defense. So that being said even if he is deserving of a 6.00 ERA that still isn’t good. But he needs to work out in the Burg.
Oh and Zach Duke’s stats are as follows: FIP – 5.34, tERA – 5.88 and xFIP – 4.75. Those aren’t a hell of a lot better than Morton’s; should we send Duke to AAA too and bring up Crotta?
Oh and Zach Duke’s stats are as follows: FIP – 5.34, tERA – 5.88 and xFIP – 4.75. Those aren’t a hell of a lot better than Morton’s; should we send Duke to AAA too and bring up Crotta?
Is this a serious question? I’m fine with non-standard stats and everything, but if they’re leading you to the conclusion that Duke has been as bad as Morton this year, I think you need to take a step back.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 18, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Well Charlie,
I think it’s a hell of a lot closer than you suggest. WHIP: Duke: 1.743 Morton: 1.755 K/9: Duke: 5.2 Morton: 7.6 BB/9: Duke: 3.8 Morton: 2.5. HR/9: Duke: 1.4 Morton: 2.0.
I’m pretty willing to attribute a lot of the difference to luck.
Amazing one what good start can do...
Still relatively early in the season. To soon, IMO, to send Morton to AAA. Duke’s start kind of proves that point.
Heres the issue I have
based on last years Zach Duke and as evidenced by tonights game, I trust Zach to figure it out and be better. I don’t with Morton. He hasn’t shown any kind of consistency in his career.
I don’t think you can send him down but I also don’t think he gets a scholarship to suck as long as he wants. After this year he has to earn it
by eyeofhorus777 on May 18, 2010 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh I agree...
By no means was I comparing the pitcher’s abilities. Obviously at this point in their careers Duke is much more of a sure thing. I also don’t think that if Morton is following every quality start with an early exit double digit ER performance on into July that we should keep sending him out there. At some point he needs to turn the corner. I was simply pointing out that we need to dig a little deeper, look at all the stats and realize that he needs, and deserves, a little more time to turn the ship around. Given that Duke’s advanced stats were in the same ballpark as Morton’s coming in to the game, and I don’t hear anyone talking about awful Duke had been, I’d think he’d get some more time to figure things out. I also didn’t buy the Lincoln argument because I don’t see it as Lincoln vs Morton at this point. If Lincoln is ready than it becomes Morton vs Burress (or Karstens I guess). I’d rather see Morton try to figure things out in Pittsburgh than have Burress or Karstens getting starts. I am probably in the minority here though at this point.
No your not
I only want Lincoln here to replace Burress. By all measures Burress is just a stopgap and mid relief at best.
Morton has a chance to be good and much better than Burress. So does Lincoln IMO.
My issue again is that at some point we will have some other players pushing for playing time and if Morton still can’t get it together for more than 1 out of 3 starts then he shouldn’t be in the rotation.
by eyeofhorus777 on May 19, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
It is serious...
this isn’t meant directly to you Charlie because it seems most everyone in Pirates community wants Charlie burned at the stake even though he clearly has the best potential on the staff. And IMO, Duke has not been a lot better (watch him throw a shut out now that I have posted this…I can only hope) but no one has been talking about how awful he has been. Charlie has looked mentally weak and times and I think that pisses everyone off. We have all pretty much been in agreement on Bucs Dugout that we are not competing for a championshiop this year so I see no point on giving up on Morton yet. I especially don’t see the need to rush a prospect before the FO believes he’s ready simply because Morton has been bad.
Sending Morton to the minors doesn’t mean giving up on him.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 18, 2010 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions
And Lincoln is not, in my view, this delicate flower who needs to be protected. He’s a good prospect, not a great one, and the Pirates should get value from him while they can.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 18, 2010 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I agee he is not a delicate flower...
and I think Lincoln will be up after a couple more solid starts. But when he does he’ll be taking starts from Burress who has less upside than Morton and stats that aren’t a heck of a lot better. I personally don’t think Morton can right the ship in AAA. He won’t be challenged down there and those are the situations he needs to learn to work himself out of consistently. Just my opion…FWIW.
I think Charlie should get his start Saturday
If he puts up a quality start, that will be 4 in 5 games and he should stay up. If he blows up on Saturday, send him down. I am also going to the game and don’t really want to watch Karstens pitch.
I tend to agree with this
As much as last night evinced some of Morton’s worst characteristics, it did come after some decent starts. No reason to pull the trigger this moment.
But another disaster?
Anyone think maybe Morton should get a stint in the bullpen?
Obviously he’s most valuable starting, and if they don’t want him in the ML rotation, Indy’s the only other alternative.
I’m just thinking, maybe appearances in the bullpen and long relief will serve him better. Morton may be able to get away with things at Indy he can’t in the MLB, only harvesting bad mechanics, tendencies, whatever.
If we keep him up here, but use him in a limited role bullpen and Karstensish role, he may be able to figure out what’s really bothering him against MLB hitters and get things straightened out without severely damaging the team’s chances of success every fifth day.
At this point
I’m not for sending Morton to AAA. When I was watching the game yesterday, I couldn’t help but say that Morton is the unluckiest pitcher in the world. Now, you might make your own luck sometimes, but I thought Morton pitched pretty well yesterday.
First inning… what are you going to do about that run? Practically no way to avoid it because the Phillies just played damn good baseball.
The big inning…
Ground ball to the shortstop (Andy cuts in front of Cedeno and can’t make the throw) for a single.
Bunt popup
(From this point he has issues locating pitches)
Hit batsman
Solid single (puts one fat over the plate)
Pop up
Great AB against Howard ends up as a ground ball single to the shortstop position.
On the Werth HR…Going back to look at the video, I do think the whole strategy of that at bat was faulty. Every single pitch was trying to paint the outside part of the plate. No movement in and out. One of those pitches was slightly elevated and Werth tatooed it.
If the batter knows what to look for, aren’t you going to get blasted sometimes?
Yes, the game-calling was terrible and extended these innings way too long.
I just don’t get why now is the time to yank him from the majors, after 3 QS and a loss to an offensive juggernaut? Especially when the last game’s big inning had the Andy error and the unluckiest ground ball on earth with Howard, which was more rare than flying pigs.
by Adam Reynolds on May 18, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Bad Luck Charlie Morton
I see a couple problems with Charlie Brown….err….Morton. First, the worst luck I’ve ever seen. How many hits has he given up because of guys covering a bag, the D being out of position, bad swings at good pitches that guys somehow just get out of the infield? I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone with bad luck as consistant as Morton’s.
The second problem is his ability to deal with adversity. He just starts throwing pitches down the middle when he gets in a jam. And we know what happens when you do that in the majors. Zack Grienke syndrom?
Look at last nights game. Howard’s bases loaded single last night should’ve been a routine ground out to short that ended the inning. Instead it was a poorly hit 2 RBI single that was followed by a 3 run HR. So instead of the end of the inning, it was 5 ERs. How did the bases get loaded? An infield single by a guy who probably just got his only IFS of the season, a pitch that brushed Victorino and a single, IIRC. He pitched very well to Howard I thought, especially for being a bases loaded situation with an RBI machine at the plate. That I took as a good sign for Charlie but it didn’t last. After the gift single thanks to the D-shift he imploded as he usually does.
Let's stop......
questioning the defense on Howard. They should play him that way every time up. Yes, it was lucky as hell, but he didn’t get a hit because guys were out of positon.
I’m trying to say they did anything wrong on that play. Just pointing out it would’ve been a routine ground out most of the time.
Does anyone have the info on what the team ERA is on JJ’s starts vs Doumit’s?
Error on me
That should read, “I’m NOT trying to say”.
You've got to be kidding me
You think Morton’s problem has been run support?
I suppose it’s true that, had the Pirates scored 10 runs in the first inning of every one of his starts, his record would look much better.
Run support is not a factor for guys with ERAs just under 10.
by JRoth95 on May 18, 2010 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think he's saying...
…(or at least, implying) that while Morton has blown up spectacularly for us on several occasions, he hasn’t actually cost us much of anything by doing so.
Eye Test
I’ve seen all but Charlie’s best start against the Cubbies and he’s been the single, unluckiest pitcher I can remember. He hasn’t been great but it’s been complete luck and variance as the reason for his numbers. He has no reason to be taken out of the rotation in my mind.
Spot on:
“Describing him as part of a “big three” with Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata is kind of ridiculous; Alvarez and Tabata are much better prospects."
And some writers need to stop referring to all three as “kids”, most especially in Lincoln’s case.
And in other news, the Royals were desperate enough for a live body with a semi-functioning pitching arm to recall Bryan Bullington. I’m sure he hopes his current manager will actually use him a time or two.
When evaluating Charlie Morton's spotty(to be kind) MLB career
from ‘08, I think people need to look more at things that can’t be measured by sabermetrics.
I hate to belabor the point, but he seems to be a mentally weak player. I doubt very seriously that the Braves truly thought they were giving up a front-of-the rotation type when they traded him. Rather, they very probably knew that his mind and heart didn’t match up to his impressive pitch speeds and good breaking stuff.
Hey, I hope I’m wrong and he becomes a solid starter for us. We’re all here because we desperately want the Bucs to return to winning ways.
Charlie Wilmoth is right in saying not to take too much away from small sample sizes when evaluating a player.
Morton needs more time to try to get things together, and the minors might be the best place soon.
But success might be elusive til he gets quite a bit tougher, physically and mentally.
by patthatt on May 18, 2010 7:58 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Demotion
Maybe a move to the bullpen for Charlie. Karstens could fill the spot. Pitching inside could help. Speaking of demotion: How long are the Bucs going to stand by Iwamura? I like putting Jones at first and bringing in our highest paid outfielder, Church. How about moving LaRoche to first and calling up Alvarez? Seems like the next step.
I would respect this post a lot more...
If you used a stat besides ERA to make your point. Yes Charlie Morton has given up tons of runs this year, but his rate of given up runs is far, far from the best estimator of how well he is pitching. Please make an attempt to go deeper. If you want an overall measure you can choose from FIP, xFIP, tERA, SEIRA, DIPS, LIPS, QERA, and others. There are other also component views (K/9, etc.) that in aggregate can present the story as well.
If you want to make some sort of argument independent of statistics then go ahead, but if you use stats at least try to use good stats. There are so many great stats from which to choose that we need not limit ourselves to those over a century old…
I would respect your reply more...
If you gave a stat that better represented just how Charlie Morton has pitched this year than ERA.
Charlie Morton 2010 9.68 ERA
In this case, that’s a pretty good summary. For that matter, invoking John Van ben Schoten is, for Pirates fans, perfectly illustrative. Also, while somewhat esoteric, command does exist, and Charlie (Wilmoth) noted that Morton doesn’t have it, or at least has issues with it. His stats (take your pick) with men on base are awful. That’s also in the post.
I would generally be down with what you’re saying, but in this case I think it would cloud the point, even for intelligent and modern readers of Bucs Dugout, of which there appear to be many. 9.68. It’s as simple as that (but no simpler).
I gave 7 such stats.
Also I think the notion of “command” is not just a problem because it’s esoteric but because it’s nebulously defined.
Why would anyone want to use game score?
Sure it incorporates many of the factors one would want to include in a pitching stat, but everything is just haphazardly thrown in there with arbitrary weighting schemes. Do the weights match empirically derived run values for events? Do the weights match some first-principles model of how baseball works? Do the weights correspond with some regression run on historical data? Or are the weights assigned arbitrarily just by what felt right to Bill James?
No offense to Bill James, but I’m pretty sure the latter is true.
Yeah, I'm sure Bill James just pulled GmScA out of his ass with no thought into it whatsoever.
Instead of complaining about it, why don’t you improve on it?
Because it's already been improved upon
Basically they will rely on pitching linear weights. There are a variety of ways to get there, but they boil down to trying to determining the proper value for the types of pitching events in which you are interested. The FIP to WAR conversion is one prominent example, but you could do the same with xFIP or tERA or whatever (if you are so inclined you can easily convert it to “per game started”). If you want to account for context then you could use pitching WPA instead.
If the weights for GmScA are not arbitrary then please tell me how James derived them. I’d be eager to hear that actually. (I could tell you how the weights for FIP, for instance, are derived and not arbitrary if you like).
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