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Around SBN: Upon Further Review: Bo Knows Longreads

Grading Huntington, Take 2

First of all, this isn't mean to show up Coxswain or anything. He's free to post what he wants, I just wanted look a bit deeper at the trades NH has made, and figured if I was going to do so, I might as well post what I come up with.

Below is a list of all his trades. In parenthesis is the WAR accumulated by the player since the trade (Players with a "-" in parenthesis have yet to reach the majors). Most of the trades don't warrant any real discussion, but I'll offer some thoughts on the bigger ones.

In total, players Huntington has traded away have accrued 18.7 WAR, while players coming in have produced just 6.8 wins. Of course, the trades are also affecting the farm system, and many of these deals haven't had time to work their course and be properly graded. This is meant primarily to show how the MLB team has been altered as Huntington builds up the farm system.

FWIW, Jason Bay and Adam LaRoche have accumulated 1.0 WAR this season, while Xavier Nady is -.1 WAR this year, which they likely would not have spent with Pittsburgh. I included them in the total WAR data, but if you want, consider it 17.8 wins to 6.8 wins because the threesome would have likely walked after last season. 

1. Salomon Torres (.3) for Marino Salas (-) and Kevin Roberts (-)

2. Todd Redmond (-) for Tyler Yates (0)

3. Cash for Jason Michaels (0)

4. Cash (Rule V) for Evan Meek (.4) -- Meek was -.3 WAR while the Pirates hid him away in the 'pen during the '08 season, but was worth .3 wins last year and has already accumulated .4 wins in 2010. 

5. Kyle Pearson (-) for Denny Bautista (-.2)

6. Cash for Dan Reichert (-) and Ryan Mulhern (-)

7. Craig Wilson (-.1) for, well, nobody (PTBNL deal that I can't find info on)

8. Xavier Nady (-1.8) and Damaso Marte (.2) for Jeff Karstens (.4), Dan McCutchen (-.4), Ross Ohlendorf (1) and Jose Tabata -- A net 1.0 WAR trade for the Buccos so far, and with Nady and Marte appearing on their last legs, should continue to be for the Bucs down the road. Especially if Tabata can become a useful MLB player, this might go down as Huntington's biggest steal.

9. Jason Bay (6.5) for Andy LaRoche (2.4), Bryan Morris, Craig Hansen (-.5) and Brandon Moss (.5) -- A net loss of 4.1 wins, although Bay was only worth 6.1 WAR while with Boston, so assuming the Bucs don't resign him, it's actually a 3.7-win loss. I think LaRoche could be a 3-4 WAR guy for years, and if he does, he probably makes this deal a win for Pittsburgh, but getting some MLB production from Morris is still likely to be critical if we're ever going to look back and consider this one a win.

10. Jose Bautista (2.1) for Robinzon Diaz (.4) -- Moving Bautista made room for LaRoche at third, and LaRoche has been a 2.4 WAR player (see below), so Bautista was expendable. Still, his flexibility and underrated bat make him a useful ball player. Diaz was fine as a backup catcher, but a clear loss for the Buccos.

11. Ronny Paulino (2.1) for Jason Jaramillo (.8) -- A 1.3-win loss for the Buccos. The Paulino deal seems like a milder, less critical version of the Aramis Ramirez move -- Paulino was being a pain, annoying fans with his laziness, and odds are, he wouldn't be worth 2.1 wins if he'd stayed in the 'Burgh. Still, hurts to see him head elsewhere and become a pretty good MLB catcher. At least Jaramillo isn't Bobby Hill...

12. Eric Krebs (-) and cash for Delwyn Young (.2)

13. Andy Philips (-) for Michael Dubee (-)

14. Romulo Sanchez (-) for Eric Hacker (-)

15. Nate McLouth (1.8) for Charlie Morton (.9), Gorkys Hernandez (-) and Jeff Locke (-) -- A .9-win loss so far. McLouth appears to be on the downswing, although it is, of course, still early in 2010. Hernandez is probably never going to amount to much, but I think we'll eventually see Morton straighten himself out and become a rotation-worthy guy, and I like Locke's ability to miss bats and get ground balls. Could be a few years before we can make any sort of call on this one.

16. Eric Hinske (.3) for Casey Erickson (-) and Eric Fryer (-)

17. Sean Burnett (-.1) and Nyjer Morgan (3.2) for Joel Hanrahan (.5) and Lastings Milledge (.3) -- A 2.6-win loss so far. Although I liked adding Hanrahan and Milledge, I hated this move from the get-go. It surprises me that Huntington undervalued Morgan so much. Yes, Milledge could still develop into an above-average left fielder, and Hanrahan is a potential closer, but Morgan is so good defensively, he should be a 3- to 4-win ball player for at least another couple years. 

18. Adam LaRoche (2.4) for Argenis Diaz (-) and Hunter Strickland (-) -- A 1.8-WAR loss through the end of last year. Was never particularly excited by the deal, and the fact that LaRoche is coming off a big April while Clement struggles at first is tough to swallow. Huntington more or less had to move LaRoche for the best package out there, but neither Diaz or Strickland should make much of an impact at the MLB level. Will likely go down as a loss for the Buccos.

19. Ian Snell (.2) and Jack Wilson (-.1) for Nathan Adcock (-), Jeff Clement (-.3), Ronny Cedeno (.4), Brett Lorin (-) -- An even deal so far. Cedeno has been serviceable and better than an injured Jack Wilson since the deal. Clement's upside has been talked about plenty, and Lorin's done a good job missing bats to this point. 

20. Freddy Sanchez (.2) for Tim Alderson (-) -- Probably a win just for the money the Pirates aren't paying Freddy now, although this looks like it will go down as a buy-low bust on Alderson, unless he can find his velocity again.

21. John Grabow (.1) and Tom Gorzelanny (1.3) for Jose Ascanio (.1), Josh Harrison (-), and Kevin Hart (.1) -- Didn't like the decision to move Gorzo then, and still don't. Ascanio and Hart are hurt, and although Harrison's off to a good start at Altoona, he doesn't look like a guy who's ever going to offer much at the MLB level. 

22. Jesse Chavez (.1) or Aki Iwamura (0) -- I mean, we're only a month into the season, so not much evaluation to do here. That said, I think Iwamura is likely to be far more valuable to the Bucs than Chavez will be in Atlanta. Personally, still like the deal a lot.

So, a lot of deals with very little effect on the MLB level. The Bay, Bautista, Paulino, McLouth, Morgan and LaRoche trades have hurt the team most at the MLB level, although the players acquired in most of those deals still have time to make an impact. Among the positive moves have been the Meek and Nady moves.

All in all, not a whole lot of positive done at the MLB level, aside from money saved. Of course, what's happened to this point isn't nearly as important as what happens over the next 3-4 years, as Huntington's minor league and draft acquisitions begin filling up the MLB roster.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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I don't take it as...

showing me up at all.

You put a lot of time into this and I’ve impressed. I simply cut and pasted most of my transactions from the pirates website.

Nice job!

With all that analysis, NH is 3-7 in his win-loss record to date. I assumed a .1 difference to be a wash and I tried not to use trades that players haven’t made it to the bigs, unless it was a huge obvious win.

Again, I said it before and I’ll say again, NH and his team seems to have a nice feel for the draft and the Rule V, but so far he’s lacking in evaluating advanced talent. Now hopefully some of the players he got in return, like Morris, Locke, Dubee, etc. will pan out and will show he needs to deal in younger players only.

by Coxswain on May 3, 2010 7:23 AM EDT reply actions  

I think NH views MLB ready talent in these trades as just

Stop gaps until the minor league draftees and prospects he traded for are ready. He is looking for undervalued or major upside guys and not safe pick ups who won’t ever be more than what they are at that moment.

 By doing that he is hoping to land one or two potential stars on the way to developing his own players in the minors.

Problem is he hasn’t been able to accomplish that and its taken a toll on the ML team.

There are tons of ifs, if only Hansen wasn’t hurt, if only Hart wasn’t hurt if only Milledge played to his talent level etc.

Sometimes I get the feeling is these teams know more about their talent then we do ours.

by eyeofhorus777 on May 3, 2010 9:17 AM EDT reply actions  

If Hansen and Hart weren't hurt

they’d just be adding up more negative war and making the deals look even worse. Hansen and Moss were fodder from the get go, as was Hart.

As for your last sentence, I’m sure the new owners of Snell, Freddy, and Mcclouth are thinking the same thing. It also wouldn’t surprise me if Paulino and Gorzo soon prove they are who we thought they were.

by Mr. E on May 3, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

From ESPN (fer chrissakes)...
Player News (last updated: April 27, 2010)
News: Snell couldn’t get out of the sixth inning Tuesday, allowing two runs on eight hits and three walks. He struck out four.
Spin: Snell pitched decently, but he was very inefficient, throwing 105 pitches in 5.1 innings. Snell’s night ended after allowing two baserunners (walk and hit) with one out in the sixth. Snell could be headed to the bullpen when Cliff Lee returns.
Player News (last updated: April 25, 2010)
News: Sanchez is now taking part in extended spring training games and is about two weeks away from returning to the Giants, according to the Associated Press.
Spin: Things are progressing as hoped for Sanchez, as a mid-May return date has been expected all along. Juan Uribe is expected to eventually relinquish second base back to Sanchez, but a timeshare of some sort could develop as Uribe has been hitting well to start the season

And, regarding Nate McLouth (I’m assuming that’s who you meant, since there’s nor information for a MLB player by the name of “McClouth”) : He’s hitting a whopping .172, and

Player News (last updated: May 3, 2010)
News: McLouth has reclaimed the leadoff role against right-handed starters, manager Bobby Cox told the team’s official web site reports.
Spin: After an 8-for-54 start to the season, he’s 3-for-10 with two walks and a home run in his last three games and even got a start against a left-handed starter. McLouth, Matt Diaz and Melky Cabrera all had poor Aprils, so any of the three could win significant playing time in the leadoff role if one gets hot.

By your next-to-last sentence, I can’t determine by the tone if you mean that the new teams are better at identifying talent, or worse. Not trying to be snarky, just unsure of your intent. These three are – if playing at all – are stinking up the respective joints.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on May 3, 2010 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Me?

The other guy said other teams know their own talent better than we do (before we trade for their talent). I was pointing out that many of the guys we traded have also stunk, so their new teams are probably thinking the same thing. I.E. that the Pirates knew more about their own players than they(the new team) did/does.

And I also think Paulino sucks and will regress. Gorzo has some talent, but could also fall apart at any time.

Sorry for confusion.

by Mr. E on May 4, 2010 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Actually you are being snarky

when you point out grammar errors dude. If thats what makes you feel better go for it. Its pretty childish at this point on blogs like this.

Also anytime you post, I’m not trying to be snarky your are. Just like saying “just kidding” after telling someone they suck.

My point was no matter what has happened we haven’t had much luck or return for our talent. We tend to dwell on the ones who really suck now like Nate and that makes some people feel better about Morton sucking even worse?

Snell is a better pitcher than most of our team too, no matter how much he sucks we still have much worse on our team.

Gorzo would be our ace this year. Morgan is better than Milledge etc.

Bottom line is we haven’t really recieved much MLB ready talent for ours. So our ML team really suffers while we await the young prospects in those trades to develop. I think NH was hoping one or two to turn out to be at least good MLB players and so far Andy and maybe Ohlendorf look like the only 2 to work out.

by eyeofhorus777 on May 4, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not to be snarky, but

wouldn’t a real Pirate fan know how to spell McLouth? After all, he WAS a gold Glover, and our All-Star representative…

Also, please don’t put intent into my words unless you don’t understand them. When I said I wasn’t trying to be snarky, I wasn’t… unlike the snark in the title of my reply.

The facts are: Snell is a head case and we’re well rid of him, Sanchez may well never play another season after this, and McLouth is in the shitter.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on May 4, 2010 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is getting confusing

I’m the one that misspelled Mclouth, and yes I’m a real Pirate fan.

by Mr. E on May 4, 2010 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

He’s made a lot of moves, but the sum of the parts is what matters. I think a reasonable expectation is a not-awful team in 2011 and a decent team in 2012, at the least. If GMNH can’t accomplish that, I’ll start grading him poorly.

by Adam Reynolds on May 3, 2010 12:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Mostly unrelated, but

how is Sean Burnett negative WAR? He was the Nats best reliever last year and has been good again this year, combined era about 3.2 and the advanced numbers look good too. I wish we could find a bunch of replacement level guys that are .1 better than that.

by Mr. E on May 3, 2010 12:57 PM EDT reply actions  

WAR comes from FIP...

…and Burnett’s FIP kind of sucks since the trade. 4.60 with the Nats in ’09, 5.71 so far this year.

Some advanced numbers are good, some are not, and the overall sample is probably too small to draw many conclusions. That latter bit is actually part of it as well – there’s a limit to how much value (positive OR negative) you can accumulate in only 30 innings.

by Vlad on May 3, 2010 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Isn’t LI figured into relief pitcher WAR as well?

by MarkInDallas on May 3, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I didn't think so...

…but I might be mistaken.

by Vlad on May 3, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

or,

Burnett could be who we thought he was.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on May 3, 2010 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Straight from the mouth of the Steelers’ West (formerly the Arizona Cardinals)

by C4M4 on May 4, 2010 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Periphs

His 1.5 K/BB ratio is pretty lousy, and his .176 BAPIP last year is exactly .100 points less than his career average. It’s pretty easy to look good when your defense turns almost 85 percent of the balls put in play into outs.

by jseiner on May 3, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Or

they are hitting the ball very weakly and/or not able to control where they hit it (I imagine they’re aiming for gaps). Hard to say with small sample size. The walks aren’t great, but he makes up for it with a solid overall WHIP and decent amount of K’s.

by Mr. E on May 4, 2010 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

The WHIP is caused by the ridiculously low amount of hits he’s given up. That low amount of hits can be attributed to the freakishly low BAPIP. The freakishly low BAPIP can be attributed to an immense amount of luck over a small sample size.

If hitters were suddenly unable to square up Burnett’s pitches, his home run rate probably wouldn’t be higher than 1 HR/9, and his BAPIP might drop .010-.020 points below his career average - certainly not a full .100 points.

by jseiner on May 4, 2010 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Really, any WAR accumulated in ‘08/’09/‘10 should be excluded because it’s completely irrelevant. The Pirates weren’t going to win in these years no matter what, so comparing WAR for Jason Bay vs. the trade is somewhat pointless.

I’m not saying NH couldn’t have gotten a better deal for Bay…I’m just saying that even if Bay had put up a WAR of 15 in 2009 it wouldn’t have made a lick of difference.

by mak_DC on May 3, 2010 4:36 PM EDT reply actions  

I was more just curious about how where the team would be if they’d kept all those players. To be fair, if Bay and the rest of the team had produced 25 wins more than the guys brought in, then you could easily say NH had done the wrong thing in blowing up the team. As it stands now, the majority of the team’s minor-league talent has been acquired through the draft anyway — it’s not like the trades have been essential to the team’s long-term plans.

If making a couple playoff runs had pushed the team’s goal of competing year-after-year back a year or two, I don’t think many folks would be upset about that. The long-term future of the club is mostly dependent on the draft anyway — value from the trades is looking like a pretty small portion of that right now.

Of course, all that is moot because the players traded away have more or less failed to give teams the value they were hoping for when they acquired them. Still, if there’s anyplace for suppositions like this, it’s here, right? :-)

by jseiner on May 4, 2010 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

We wouldn’t have been able to resign most of those guys anyway so letting them walk without getting something in return would have been silly.

They stunk with Bay and co. here already so I don’t see how keeping them made any sense.

The issue to me was that our MLB ready players we got just didn’t really pan out.

by eyeofhorus777 on May 4, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

you forgot one NH transaction

essentially trading Matt Capps for nothing in return.

by gonfalon on May 4, 2010 1:54 PM EDT reply actions  

No.

He’s focusing on things that are actually trades, rather than things that are, in your opinion, “essentially” trades.

But even if he were to consider the Capps non-tender to be “essentially” a trade, it would be an even-up trade for Dotel, rather than Capps-for-nothing, since Dotel got the money and the role that had been set aside for Capps.

So you’re actually wrong twice in thirteen words. Pretty impressive efficiency, there.

by Vlad on May 4, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

BTW Vlad

Did you get a chance to look at Capps’ latest outings and movement?

by MarkInDallas on May 4, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Nats haven't come to town since you asked, so no.

I don’t have cable or home internet, and the resolution on my iPhone viewer is too small to be of much use.

by Vlad on May 4, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

I made a vid of some outings

I’ll post them up for you to download.

by MarkInDallas on May 4, 2010 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Many thanks.

I’ll be interested to see them.

by Vlad on May 5, 2010 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

I've put Capps in my FB team

and let’s say he is certainly pulling his (not inconsiderable) weight.
(oooh that was b!tchy)

by BlindSquirrel on May 4, 2010 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

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